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Innovation for climate change mitigation:
a study of energy R&D, its uncertain
effectiveness and Spillovers
Elena Verdolini
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
Washington, 12/02/2010
Principal Investigator: Valentina Bosetti
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MAIN PURPOSE
Improving modeling of innovation in Integrated
Assessment models, accounting for the crucial
fact that innovation is an uncertain process
1. Understanding the role of R&D on innovation and
diffusion of technologies in the energy sector:
• Expert Elicitation
• Empirical Analysis
2. Normative analysis through modeling
The ICARUS Project - Goals
Expert Judgement Elicitation: Challenges
Probability
of success
Technical
maturity/current
state of efficiency
Evolution of costs
conditional on R&D
scenarios
Knowledge transfer
dynamics
(Global) Market
diffusion
i.e. patented technologies?
Role of R&D
programs to
overcome the
barriers
Penetration
rates and
diffusion
ceiling
Expert Judgement Elicitation: Our contribution
1. Widen the geographical focus of the analysis
Focus on EU (compare with US)
Experts from different background (private, academia
and institutions)
2. Different stages of the innovation process:
Innovation
Knowledge spillovers and technology transfer
Non-technical barriers to deployment
3. Dual methodological approach
elicited both cost estimates and probabilities of
reaching a breakthrough
Overcome over/under-confidence biases and analyze
how the question format influences experts’ responses
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Expert Judgement Elicitation: Technologies
Biofuels for transportation
Storage for transportation (EDV)
Solar technologies (PV and CSP)
Nuclear (with Harvard)
Bioenergy
CCS (with University of Massachusetts)
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Expert Judgement Elicitation: Expert pools
solar
batteries
biofuels
academia
institutional
private
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Expert Judgement Elicitation: Expert pools
EE: CSP and PV Technologies
Technical maturity and role of R&D funding Cry = Crystalline Silicon
Thi = Thin Film
Con = Concentrating PV
Org = Organic PV
TG = Third Generation PV
CSP = Concentrated Solar Power
Solar technologies still need a significant amount of
R&D
EE: CSP and PV Technologies – Probability of breakthrough
We are in a real innovation race:
probability of breakthrough is high in 3 major innovating
countries.
EE: CSP and PV Technologies – Barriers to diffusion 1/2
Overcoming technical barriers will not be enough to
guarantee diffusion of (solar) technologies
EE: CSP and PV Technologies – Diffusion ceiling
Academia Institution Private
Sector
Policy makers in solar technologies are more
optimistic than private and academia experts
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1. Data Collection
• Patent database: extend empirics to fast developing and developing
countries
• Survey of top innovators: lack of R&D Data
• Selected case studies: gain overview of particular barriers to
innovation and diffusion, and dynamics of private/public energy/non-
energy R&D
2. Empirical Methods
• Strengthen results with more refined empirical estimation methods:
control for selection bias, treatment-effect estimation
• Enlarge the geographical focus of the analysis. Tackle issue of
diffusion dynamics not only to developed, but to developing
countries.
Empirical Analysis – Overview of research
1. Fundamental role of (private and public) R&D
2. Knowledge spillovers/ Intended technology transfer
Very relevant for middle and less innovating countries
3. Historical energy technology portfolio development
Long-lived capital stocks, lock-in effects, security concerns
4. Role of IPR regimes, specific environmental and
technology policies in fostering innovation and
diffusion
Should environmental policy be coupled with technology
policy aimed at supporting the development and
deployment of eco-friendly technologies?
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Empirical Analysis – Some Contributions - Relevance
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Empirical Analysis: Patent Database Technologies
Traditional Fossil for Electricity Production
Fossil Efficient-Technologies for Electricity Production
Renewables: Hydro, Wind, Solar (PV and CSP),
Geothermal, Tide and Wave, Biomass
Nuclear
CCS
Water and Air Pollution Control
Selected Alternative Transportation
Selected Demand Side
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4
Empirical Analysis – Fossil Efficient Technologies (El)
National and Foreign Patents by Application Authority
TOP Innovators are USA, JAP, GER
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5
Patent counts by innovation country and application authority
Empirical Analysis – Fossil Efficient Technologies (El)
Importance of technology diffusion and transfer: while innovation
in non OECD is low, these market are still interesting outlets
for technology, which comes from OECD countries
www.icarus-project.org