Electricity & Water Demand Forecast 2009 - 2030

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Electricity & Water Demand Forecast 2009 - 2030

Text of Electricity & Water Demand Forecast 2009 - 2030

  • 1. Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning & Studies Directorate Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company (ADWEC) Thursday 30th April 2009 Telephone: +971 (2) 694 3816Fax: +971 (2) 642 5773 keithmiller@adwec.aewww.adwec.ae ADWEC(Winter 2008 / 2009) Electricity & Water Demand Forecast 2009 - 2030

2. Presentation Overview

  • Purpose of presentation :
  • Present ADWECs 2009 - 2030 demand forecasts The ADWEC Winter 2008 / 2009 Demand Forecast was completed inApril 2009 .
  • Based on available data in late 2008 / early 2009.
  • Thus all 2009 data shown in this presentation areforecasts not actuals .
  • Higher demand creates a need for morenew IWPP capacity .
  • ADWEC must purchase additional IWPP capacity to satisfy demand increases.
  • Scope of presentation :
  • Introduction
  • ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecast 2009 2030
  • ADWEC Water Demand Forecast 2009 2030
  • Summary
  • Annex: ADWEC Planning Process

3. Introduction 4. ADWEC and Law Number 2 of 1998

  • Within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi:ADWEC is theSingle Buyer and Sellerof electricity and water.
  • ADWEC is responsible inter alia for :
  • Electricity & Water Demand Forecasting .
  • Electricity & Water Capacity Planning .
  • Contracting of new IWPP capacity and BST preparation.
  • Contracting for gas / fuel supply.
  • Financial Settlement
  • ADWECs legalDemand ForecastingandCapacity Planning
  • duties are fulfilled via annual :
  • Electricity & Water Demand Forecasts.
  • Statement of Future Capacity Requirements.

5. Article 30 of Law Number 2 of 1998

  • Also requires ADWEC to
  • ensure that, at all times,all reasonabledemands forwater and electricity in the Emirate are satisfied .
  • To satisfy Law Number 2s requirements ADWEC prepares annual forecastsof electricity and water demand.
  • ADWECsDemand Forecastsare used to prepare :
  • ADWEC Statement of Future Capacity Requirements
  • TRANSCO 5 Year Planning Statement
  • Bulk Supply Tariff , ADWEA Budget and Other Planning.

6. Key Recent Demand Developments 1.Global Financial Crisis (GFC) When this forecast was being prepared in late 2008 / early 2009 the full impact of the GFC on ADWECs demand forecast was not fully known.Demand forecast based on available information in late 2008 / early 2009 of impact of GFC. ADWEC Winter 2009 / 2010 demand forecast will fully reflect impact of GFC on electricity / water demand. 2.Inclusion of significant additional exports toNorthern Emirates . 3.Inclusion of significant additionalADNOC electricity demands . 4. Release of UPCs Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 in September 2007. 5.Releasing ofsurplus oil revenuesfor major infrastructure developments and industrial expansion (e.g. KPIZ / Zonescorp).6.Changes inland ownership lawsduring 2005. 7. ADWEC Electricity Demand Forecasts 2009 - 2030 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. ADWEC Water Demand Forecasts 2009 - 2030 20. Key Water Issues (i)

  • Constrained versus Unconstrained Forecasts
  • Wa ter network constraints limit the amount of water than can be delivered to customers.
  • Currently not all of the water desalination capacity can be fully utilised because ofwater network constraints.
  • Water demand is by definition unconstrained, i.e. how much water consumerswould like to consume.
  • Water network constraints limits the amount of water than customers can consume.
  • ADWEC prepares two water demand forecasts:
  • 1. Constrained Demand Forecast (including impact of transmission constraints) 2. Unconstrained Demand Forecast (assuming no transmission constraints).
  • Until 2012 Constrained Demand Forecast < Unconstrained Demand Forecast
  • 2012-2030 Constrained Demand Forecast = Unconstrained Demand Forecast

21. Key Water Issues(ii)

  • Removal of Water Network Constraints
  • TRANSCOs water network constraints are assumed to be fully removed by 2012.
  • TRANSCOs water network constraints primarily reduce the amount of water that can be supplied to Al Ain region (AADC).
  • The removal of TRANSCOs network constraints will enable more water to be delivered to the Al Ain region.
  • New Short Term Demands
  • Substantial new water demands notified to ADWEC since March 2008.

22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Summary

  • Global Financial Crisis(GFC) and economic downturn has lowered the demand forecast in the early years to some extent.
  • A significant increase in exports to theNorthern Emirateshas been committed to.
  • Significant increase in electricity to be supplied toADNOC .
  • Short medium term slower electricity demand growth in:
  • (1)Residential / Commercial Mega Projects(2)Industry
  • is partially offset by higherADNOCdemand in short run. More than fully offset in the medium-term and increased in the long-run.
  • ADWEC demand forecasts will be updated in late 2009 / early 2010 and will become theADWEC Winter 2009 / 2010 Demand Forecast .

31. THANK YOU 32. Annex ADWEC Planning Process 33. Implementation Schedules Years IWPPs require up to4 yearsfrom decision to proceed to completion 34. Existing 400kV circuits Existing 220kV circuits Existing 132kV circuits ADNOC 132kV circuits Power Station Sub-Station ADNOC Oil & Gas Plant EMAL Smelter Under Construction Planned Planned line cut Abu Dhabi Bu Hasa (ADCO Load) 109 MW Existing Capacity as of 31/12/2009 along with ADNOC, ENG, GCC & EMAL interconnection. 1,615 MW 186 MW 10,110 MW Asab (ADCO Load) Liwa Sila Shuweihat Jebel Dhanna Mirfa Tarif Dhabiya (ADCO Load) Ramah Wagan Sanaiya Al Ain Mina (ADST) Shahama Samha Hayer Dubai TOTAL (GROSS MW) Khazna 4,651 MW 2,433 MW To Salwa (GCC interconnection) Dhaid Al Oha/Al Foa To Al Wassit (GCC interconnection) Dahma Arad Mazyad Al Ain SW E48 Mussaffah GIC Central Rumaitha (ADCO Load) Liwa West (Eradah) September 26, 2009 Ghayathi ONGS (ADCO Load) Bab (ADCO Load) Hameem (ADCO Load) AGD II (ADCO Load) Ruwais 900 1,150 MW (2010) 250 MW (2009) 400 MW (2010) 1,150 MW 861 MW Ajman Umm Al Quwain Ras Al Khaimah To Dubai (ENG interconnection) Warsan Taweelah Qidfa Sweihan UAN Wathba Bahia Airport Khowr Khawer Tawian Saja Madinat Zayed X Salamat Zakher 256 MW Shamkha 1,150 MW (2010) Umm El Oush (Oct 2009) EMAL 2,220 MW (2010) Delma (Nov2009) (May 2009) Fujairah Khorfakkan Gurfa Fujairah Dibba Hamariya SEWA Network Galailah (Nov2009) Yas Island Sahil (ADCO Load) Habshan (ADCO Load) NGI Plant (ADCO Load) GUP-TAKREER (ADNOC) 676 MW DEWA Network Sharjah Saadiyat ADWEC Electricity Map 35. 39 MGD 684 MGD 101 MGD 1600 mm 1400 mm 1200 mm 1000 mm 900 mm 800 mm 600 mm 500 mm Pumping Station (PS) Desalination Plant Proposed PS Under Construction / Proposed Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2009, excluding isolated Plants and Al Ain Network. TOTAL Abu Dhabi Dubai Al Ain ADPS Mirfa Shuweihat UNIT 5 Shoubaisi Abu Al Abyad Tarif New Mirfa PS Madinat Zayed Liwa Wagan Jurf Sila PS1 PS2 Sih Shoib Jebel Ali 297 MGD Qidfa Tanks Ghayathi Adla 102 MGD September 26, 2009 UNIT 3 Sweihan UAN Units I & II Al-Saad Ajban Taweelah Sharjah Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah Jazirat Al-Hamra Tap Off 12 Ramah Al-Maha Forests 145 MGD DETAIL A REEM ISLAND TO UNIT 3 N-4381 Aug 2010 N-5805 May 2010 N-3850 Sep 2009 N-6139 Jul 2011 N-5807 Jul 2009 N-4268 Dec 2010 N-6820/6821 July 2011 Bani Yass Mussaffah Samha Lulu Island UNIT 4 Tao Off 9A ADWEC Water Map ADPS UAN UNIT 1 UNIT 2 LULU ISLAND SADIYAT ISLAND 145 MGD 36. ADWEC Planning Overview Demand Forecast (including losses & auxiliary consumption) Add Reserve Margin (Electricity GSS LOLE 0.1 / Water DSS 1 day in 50 years) = Required Capacity Forecast Existing / Planned / Under Construction Capacity + Versus = New Capacity Requirements 37. ADWEC Electricity and Water Demand Forecasting Regions Abu Dhabi Region Western Region Al Ain Region Note: The sum of regional peaks is not equal to the system peak because of timing differences. 2006 peak per capita consumptions

  • Electricity 3 kW per capita
  • Water 86 gallons per capita

38. ` ADWEC Demand Forecasting Process Population Inputs: 1. Urban Planning Council (UPC) 2. Mega Projects Population Forecasts 3. 2005 Census 4. Government Organisations 5. ADWEC Historical Population Forecasts Residential / Commercial Industrial Inputs:1. Zonescorp 2. ADBIC 3. Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ) 4. ADNOC / GASCO / ADCO etc Industrial Sector ADWEA Company Demand Forecasts: 1. AADC2. ADDC 3. TRANSCO (e.g. transmission losses) 4. ADWEC Auxiliary Consumption All Sectors Transmission Code Other Demand Forecasts / Inputs: 1. Mega Projects Developers Forecasts2. Mega Projects Master plans 3. Government Organisations 4. Other Emirates Demand Forecasts5. ADWEC Assumptions All Sectors Mega Projects / Non-Mega Projects Other Emirates Inputs ADWEC Electricity & Water Demand Forecasts 39. OfficialData Sources ADWEC Independent Research

  • ADWEC Site Visits
  • Publications
  • MEED magazine
  • Gulf News
  • Khal

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