Electric Vehicles 2011 Vision - Product Pricing and Positioning of OEMs in the European Market

Electric Vehicles 2011 Vision: Product, Pricing and Positioning of OEMs in the European Market

Vishwas Shankar, Industry AnalystAnjan Hemanth Kumar, Team Leader

Automotive & Transportation

2

Functional Expertise

Specific functional expertise in:• Competitive intelligence and benchmarking• Market analysis and business opportunity assessment• OEM strategy on new products market entry and product price positioning

Industry Expertise

Experience base covering a broad range of sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants’ Senior Executives

• Electric vehicles and technologies• Microcars

What I Bring to the Team

• Understanding of the electric vehicle market and Driver Assistance System technology and market• Strategic thinking & strong analytical skills using quantitative techniques and management tools• Ability to contribute as an individual and team player in structuring and executing complex engagements

Career Highlights

Having worked with leading firms and associations, carry a total of 7 years work experience as below:• Assistant Manager - Purchase, Renault Nissan Technology and Business Centre India Private Ltd• Deputy Manager - Purchase, Mahindra Renault Private Ltd.• PGET, Mahindra & Mahindra Automotive• Project Assistant (DLPD) and Teaching Assistant (M.E. Group), BITS – Pilani • Intern, PED, Sundaram-Clayton Ltd• Intern, Foundry, Perambur Locoworks

Education

• Master of Engineering in Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani

• Master of Science in Engineering Technology, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani

Vishwas Shankar

Vishwas ShankarIndustry AnalystAutomotive & Transportation

Frost & SullivanEuropeChennai, India

3

Functional Expertise

� More than 3.5 years of automotive strategy consulting and research experience, having worked on more than 15 opportunity assessment and strategy formulation engagements with Global clients. Specific expertise in:

- Go-to market strategy formulation- New market entry and diversification strategies- Product portfolio review, product development and launch- New business model analysis and evaluation- Due diligence activities- Competitive intelligence and benchmarking

Industry Expertise

� Experience base covers a wide range of industry sectors, forming long standing relationships with senior executives in the

- Automotive Powertrain- Electric Vehicles and Technologies- Hybrid Vehicles and Technologies- Utility and Charging Infrastructure- Automotive NVH

What I bring to the Team

• Understanding of the automotive powertrain market and trends towards ‘Green’ technologies• Industry recognized expertise in the area of alternate propulsion strategies for as electric vehicles, hybrid

vehicles, hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles and technologies� Technical expertise and in-depth understanding of electric vehicle associated industries • Strategic thinking and strong analytical skills using quantitative techniques and management tools• Ability to contribute as an individual and team player in structuring & executing complex engagements

• Education

� Master of Science, Engineering from RWTH Aachen University� Bachelor of Engineering in Mechanical Engineering from PES Institute of Technology

Anjan Hemanth Kumar

Anjan Hemanth KumarTeam LeaderAutomotive & Transportation

Frost & SullivanEuropeBangalore, India

4

Scope and Focus Points

� The European electric vehicle market� Market size, key participants and line-up's� OEM’s competitive dynamics profiling� Top level comparisons� Business models adopted by OEM’s

Electric VehiclesElectric VehiclesTypes of Systems Covered

Passenger Cars and LCVsPassenger Cars and LCVsVehicle Type

2011 to 20172011 to 2017Forecast Period

20102010Base Year

EuropeEuropeGeographic Coverage

5

Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles

(NEVs)

NEV is a US DOT classification for vehicles weighing less than 3,000 lbs (GVW) and having a top speed of 25 mph. NEVs are generally restricted to operate on streets with a speed limit of 35 mph or less.

A city car is a European classification for small and light vehicles intended for use in urban areas although capable of operating in mixed city-highway environment. In Japan, city cars are called kei cars.

These vehicles have an internal combustion engine (ICE) or other secondary source connected in a series configuration to a generator to supply the batteries. The drive range and speeds are comparable to IC engine vehicles.

High-Performance Electric Vehicles

(HPEVs)

These are sporty PHEVs or battery electric vehicles with top speeds exceeding 100 mph and driving range exceeding 100 miles. The price of these vehicles is expected to approach or exceed $100,000.

GEM e2, e4, e6; REVA

G-Wiz i; ZENN; ZAP and others

Smart EV, Th!nk City, BMW Mini and others

Chevy Volt, Opel Ampera and others

Tesla, Venturi Fetish, Lightning GT, etc

City Electric Vehicles

(CEVs)

Toyota Prius PHEV, Ford Fusion PHEV, etc

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

(PHEVs)

A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) has an internal combustion engine (ICE) with a motor along with a battery connected in parallel to the ICE. They are generally regarded as full hybrids with bigger motor/battery and a plug to recharge.

Battery Electric Vehicles: Electric vehicles (EVs) use electric motors instead of an internal combustion engine (ICE) to propel a vehicle. The electric power is derived from a battery of one of several chemistries including lead acid, nickel metal hydride (NiMH) and lithium-ion (Li-ion).

Definitions

Extended-range

EVs (E-REVs)

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Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Sales of 2.2 M in Frost & Sullivan Scenario by 2017

Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2009-2017

Scenario's 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172020

(% of Total Car Sales)

Optimistic

Scenario4,500 23,100 123,800 289,500 665,000 1060,400 1,714,500 2,220,300 3,202,000 10-12%

F&S Scenario 4,500 16,500 72,000 193,000 453,000 792,000 1,287,500 1,736,000 2,203,000 5-7%

Conservative

Scenario4,500 13,500 35,600 82,500 150,300 195,100 300,500 450,000 670,000 3-4%

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (Europe), 2010-2017

Source: Frost & Sullivan

2011 20132010 20121

Future (Till 2017)

European EV Market will see 68 Base Model Penetration by 2017 Driven by Microcars and A segment Vehicles

Mic

roca

rs(Q

ua

dri

cyc

le a

nd

Su

b-A

)

A

C

B

Twizy Z.E.Renault

G-WizREVA NXG

REVA

BUDDYPure mobility ZENN

Microcar

Mega CityAxiam-MEGA

YDEAMicro-Vett

FriendlyHeuliez

JouleOptimal Energy WILL

Heuliez 8Zoe Z.E.Renault

C-Zero PSA

11

E-up!VW

Smart EDDaimler

Bluezero E-CellDaimler

i-MiEVMitsubishi

iQ basedToyota

500 EVFiatCity

Th!nk

NXRREVA

11

Land GliderInfiniti

Fluence Z.E.Renault

LeafNissan

MegaCityBMW

Focus electricFord Ampera

OpelGolf blue-e-motion

VW

8C30 DRIVeVolvo

BB1PSA

A1 e-tronAudi

A2 e-tronAudi

Leon Twin DriveSeat

Nano EVTATA

IBE conceptSEAT

Octavia Green E LineŠkoda

Indica Vista EVTATA

B0 basedPininfarina

i0nPSA

8

OEMs are Aggressive on EV LCV Segment; To Penetrate High-end Segment only Post-2011

Electric Vehicle Market: Planned Electric Vehicle Product Offerings (Europe), 2010-2017


D

Sports

2011 20132010 20121

LCV

MPV

BerlingoElectric

PSA

Partner Electric

PSA

KangooExpress Z.E.

Renault

Transit ConnectElectric

Ford

Minivan ShuttleZAP

C-X75Jaguar

4

17

OxTh!nk

NV200 ElectricNissan

1

SurvoltPSA

Essence LuxuryInfiniti

DezirRenault

OpenTh!nk

8

6812 16 11 14 15

i-MiEV CargoMitsubishi

A1 R8 e-tronAudi

Range_eLand Rover

PassatVW

?

918 SpyderelectricPorsche

?

911 GT3R electricPorsche

E6BYD

Box VanModec

Mega VanAixam-MEGA

APE ElectricPiaggio

PorterElectricPiaggio

MaxximoElectricM&M

ACE ElectricTATA

MaxityZ.E.

Renault

AmpereSmith

Fiat DobloMicro-VETT

Future (Till 2017)

Vito E-CellDaimler

V60 ElectricVolvo

?

9

Key Models Launch Details – Important Mainstream OEMs

S. No. Launch Year OEM Model Segment Country

European price

(Euro)

(before subsidy

/ rebates

All electric

range (km)

Top Speed

(km/h)

Battery

Capacity

(kWh)

Max Motor

Power (kW)

Max Motor

Torque

(N.m.)

1 2011 REVA NXR A TBA

14,995

Excluding

battery

(Excl. Taxes -

TBA)

160 104 14 25 92

2 2011

Renault

Fluence

Z.E.

C France

26,300

Excluding

battery

(incl. VAT)

160 136 22 70 226

3 2011Nissan

LeafC France

33,000

(incl. VAT)160 141 24 80 280

4 2010

PSA

Citroen C-

Zero

A France35,350

(incl. VAT)128 130 16 47 180

5 2011GM Opel

AmperaC Germany

36,050

(incl. VAT)60 160 16 111 370

Electric Vehicle Market: Key Electric Vehicles Price Positioning (Europe), 2010 & 2011


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Overview of Potential Business Models: Outright Sales and Leasing Concept Gain Acceptance

Outright Purchase Price

Residual Value

Basic Business Package


Residual Value


Warranty Conditions

Residual Value

Nissan LEAF Citroen C-Zero

Th!nk City


Warranty Conditions

Residual ValueMitsubishi i-MiEV

£28,990 / €33,000(Before rebate, inl. VAT)

€35,350(Before rebate, inl. VAT)

€29,500 (Before rebate, inl. VAT)

£28,990 / €33,000(Before rebate, inl. VAT)

Vehicle & Battery:

•15% after 5 yrs

Vehicle: • 60% after 3 yrs

Battery: • 15% after 8 yrs


Battery:

• 15% after 8 yrs


Battery: • 15% after 8 yrs

5 yr Battery Warranty

5 yr/62,500 km Battery Warranty

Warranty Conditions

7 yr Battery Warranty

Warranty Conditions

5 yr/50,000 kmBattery Warranty

Basic Business Package

Basic Business Package Basic Business Package

Leasing -£399/m; 4yr contract-Access to Charge Station-IT Telematics-Maintenance and Service-Monthly utility Bill

Leasing -€499/month; 4yr contract-Vehicle + Battery

-Navigation

-Vehicle returned to dealer post contract period-Add. Fee for info. On status of battery (>1/day)

-No charge stations -Telematics (Specific Assistance)

Leasing-€554/m;5yr contract (10% residual value)-€510/m;5yr contract (15% residual value)

-IT Telematics-Maintenance and Service

Leasing -No announcements yet

- £300 inc. VAT – 3yrs / 37,500 under MSP


Electric Vehicle Market: Key Electric Vehicle Business Models (Europe), 2010 & 2011

11

16 Base Models will be introduced within the € 25,000 price and 3,500 mm length range in the European Market between 2010 and 2017

Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Drive Range and Price Segmentation (Europe), 2010-2017


5

25

35

Pri

ce w

ith

ou

t S

ub

sid

y (

€‘0

00)

Length (mm)

15

Minivan ShuttleZAP

AmperaOpel

G-WizREVA

Mega CityAxiam-MEGA

iQ basedToyota

BerlingoElectricPSA`

Twizy Z.E.Renault

ZENNMicrocarFriendly

Heuliez

500 EVFiat

C-Zero PSA

i0nPSA

Transit Connect Electric

Ford

E-up!VWSmart

EDDaimler

Partner Electric

PSA

NXR REVA

Zoe Z.E.Renault

KangooExpress Z.E.

Renault

DezirRenault

Golf blue-e-motionVW

Focus electricFord

Fluence Z.E.Renault

MegaCityBMW

CityTh!nk

i-MiEVMitsubishi

SurvoltPSA

NXGREVA

OxTh!nk

JouleOptimal Energy

WILLHeuliez

2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

BUDDYPure mobility

5,000

Nano EVTATA

E6BYD

LeafNissan

Mega VanAixam-MEGA

APEPiaggio

PorterPiaggio

ACE ElectricTATA

AmpereSmith

BB1PSA

Prius HybridToyota

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• Athletic Physique - 5-door functionality of a hatchback with curves

• Smart Fluidity – Distincity LED H/Lamp, low hoodline

• Racecar approach – Flat floor plan and Rear diffuser

• Designed from scratch interiors• X-by Wire technology

Nissan LEAF will Launch in the European Market Amid Strong Global Demand Driven by Bookings in Portugal, Ireland, UK Followed by Netherlands

Design Styling

• 100% Zero Emission Vehicle • 24 kWh Li-Ion battery • On-board 3.3 kW charger• 80 kW AC sync Motor / 280 N.m. torque• 440V Quick Charging option• 8 Year; 100,000 miles battery warranty

• Automotive Energy Supply Co., Ltd. (AESC). AESC – Battery supplier

• Battery manufacturing locations – Japan, USA, UK.

• Battery volumes of 380K by 2012

Battery

• All new platform• Standard features include:

• CARWINGS• Hands free Bluetooth phone system• I-pod interface system• 6 speaker audio system with Mp3

CD playback• 5 passenger seating• 60/40 split fold down rear seatbacks

• Optional features include:• Photovoltaic solar panel Spoiler • Rear View Monitor (RVM)• Fog-lamps• Automatic on/off headlamps• 5 Color options• DC fast charge ports

• Vehicle Buy/Lease Options with finance plans

Feature Analysis

• L/W/H – 4445/1770/1550• Range – 160 km• Top Speed – 141 km/h• 0-100 km/h in 7 seconds

Dimensions, Range, Speed & Acceleration

UK Variant• £ 28,990

Configurations and Base Pricing

Netherland Variant • € 32,839


• Oppama, Japan (50K) - 2010• Smyrna, USA (150K) - 2011• Sunderland, UK (50K) - 2013

Vehicle Manufacturing Location

UK Netherlands PortugalUSA Japan

Ireland

TARGET MARKETS

• NV200 EV• Infiniti Essence based Luxury sedan• Infiniti Land Glider

Other Nissan EV Models

Ireland Variant • € 29,995

Switzerland

70% of sales in 2011 are expected to be to fleets.Current fleet orders are outright sales.All initial EVs are sold with charging station.

France

France Variant • € 35,000

Portugal Variant • € 35,200

Switzerland Variant • 49,950 CHF

TARGET MARKETS

Colour Options: Pearl White, Force Red, Sky Blue, Universal Silver, Kuro Black

Electric Vehicle Market: Nissan Leaf Product Snapshot (Europe), 2010

13

• Powerful shoulder lines - Superior road handling

• Side indicators on wheel arches –Innovative looks

• ABS plastics Body – To avoid visible scratches and dents

• Rear glass view of rear bumper – Aids while reversing

Th!nk City the First EV to be Granted Pan-European Regulatory Safety Approval has Completed 2,500th Vehicle Builds in Europe and Sold Across Europe

Design Styling

• 100% Zero Emission Vehicle • Available with 2 battery options• 23 kWh Zebra Sodium / 22 kWh Li-Ion battery • 30 kW AC sync Motor / 90 N.m. torque• 8 Year; 100,000 miles battery warranty

• Enerdel, Japan – Li-Ion Battery supplier• Li-Ion Battery manufacturing locations –

Japan.• Battery volumes TBA

Battery

• Standard features include:• Dual Airbags• Interiors with Energy absorbring

foams • IsoFix child restraint system• Passenger airbag OFF switch• Inertia OFF switch (to cut off power

in events of accident)• 2+2 seating

• Optional features:• A choice of two battery options• 4 color options• Air-conditioning

• Vehicle Buy/Lease Options with battery lease plans

Feature Analysis

• L/W/H – 3143/1658/1596• Range – 160 km• Top Speed – 110 km/h• 0-80 km/h in 16 seconds

Dimensions, Range, Speed & Acceleration

Configurations and Base Pricing

All Europe Regions• € 29,500

• Valmet Auto, Finland (30K) - 2011• Elkhart, USA (20K) - 2013

Vehicle Manufacturing Location

Netherland UK Spain

• Th!nk Ox• Th!nk Open

Other Th!nk EV Models

Norway Austria Switzerland

France Sweden Finland

GermanyDenmark USA

TARGET MARKETS TARGET MARKETS

Colour Options : Black Jungle, Blue Sky, Red Energy, City Citrus (Yellow)

Electric Vehicle Market: Th!nk City Product Snapshot (Europe), 2010


14

Country United Kingdom Denmark

1. Cash Incentives £5,000 180% Registration Tax

2. Free ParkingCertain councils, future plans to be free across all

areas Plans to provide free parking

3. Congestion Charge No Congestion Charge Similar incentives to be in place

4. Free ride on bus lanes Applicable Applicable

5. Govt EV Targets 20% LEV by 2020 200,000 EV’s by 2020

6.Nos. of Charge Stations 100,000 by 2015 150,000 by 2015

7.Govt programmes in place for CS Plugged in Places Better Place – Talks of Govt. support

8. % of Fleets in regions 40% >30%

9. Corporate Taxation Policy100% Capital Allowance in 1st year ; Internal CO2

target will see fleets be replaced by Hybrids / EV’s

NA

10. Cost of EnergyHighest in EU; 60% from Coal and goal to

replace with renewable energy Highest per capita CO2 emission in EU

11. Structure of MinistriesStructured – clearly well established

associations that drive certain programmes Unstructured

13. Pilot Testing supportFunded by TSB; and several more planned in

future Under Evaluation

14. Presence of Local ManufacturingPresence of both OEM and battery

manufacturing centres No automotive industry base or presence

Key Enablers for Electric Vehicle Market Acceleration

across UK, Norway and Denmark


Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Vehicle Key Enablers (Europe), 2010

15

Key Conclusions

The Renault-Nissan Group will be biggest EV brand amongst competing 35 OEMs.Together, the group has planned for more than 8 base models launch between 2010 and 2017.

Key Conclusions

Almost all OEMs offer base models by different business models and include vehicle outright purchase and leasing options, with and without battery lease plan.

Most EV models promise to run up to a range of 160km on a single charge with a maximum speed of 160km/h

16 base models are clustered within price € 25,000 and within 3,500 mm length range. And, another 17 base models compete within the 3,500 mm and 4,500 mm length range.


16

Electric Vehicles Research Published 2010

Sl. No Published Title Research Code

1 Global Electric Vehicles Lithium-ion Battery Second Life and Recycling Market Analysis M5B6-18

2Electric Vehicles Unplugged 2010 New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends Presentations from Frost & Sullivan’s Interactive 2 Day Workshop and Networking Event 2010

M67A-18

3 Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market M65D-18

4 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Consumer Study- Fleet Managers and Drivers M48B-18

5 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Customer Study- Private User Passenger Vehicle M444-18

6 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Market - 2010 Edition M5B7-18

7 Strategic Dashboard of Global Electric Vehicle Specifications M5BF-18

8 Global Electric Vehicle Associations and Incentives Database M546-18

9 Global Electric Vehicles Market Forecast Database M648-18

10 Strategic Analysis of the European EV Charging Station Infrastructure M616-18

11 Global Electric Vehicles Incentives Database Q4 2010 Update 9832-18

12Comparative Analysis of European OEMs Electric Vehicle Launch Strategy and Product and Price Positioning

M682-18

13 Strategic Analysis of European and North American Market for Electric Commercial Vehicles M4DE-18

14 Strategic Analysis of APAC Market for Neighborhood Electric Vehicles P41D-18

15 Strategic Analysis of Battery Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P4CA-18

16 Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P475-18

17

Upcoming Electric Vehicles Research Plan 2011

Sl. No Planned Topic Regional Scope Deliverable Type

1 360 Degree Analysis of the Eastern European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market Russia CEE Megatrend

2 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Brazil LATAM Megatrend

3Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in North America

NA ME Research

4Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Europe

EU ME Research

5Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in China

China ME Research

6Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Infrastructure in North America

NA Megatrend

7 Executive Report on Global Electric Vehicle Forecasts and Trends Global Megatrend

8Comparative Analysis of North American OEMs Electric Vehicles Launch Strategy and Product and Price Positioning

NA Megatrend

9 Analysis of Make or Buy OEM Strategies around Electric Vehicle Components Global ME Research

10 Analysis Electric Vehicle Platform Strategies of OEMs Global ME Research

11 2011 Global Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market EU ME Research

12 Strategic Analysis of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Market in China China ME Research

13 Strategic Analysis of EV IT Infrastructure and Billing Systems EU NA ME Research

14 European Voice of Customer Study on Adoption and Interest in Electric Vehicles EU Megatrend

18

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Electric Vehicles 2011 Vision - Product Pricing and Positioning of OEMs in the European Market