Electric Fan Industry

8/9/2019 Electric Fan Industry

1/33

Production of Electric Fans in India

Month 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

April 6.6 6.9 7.7 9 9.2 9.6

May 6.7 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.5 9.7

June 5.9 7.2 8.7 8.7 7.9 8.8 July 4.9 7.2 8.2 7.2 7 9.7

August 5.8 7.2 6.8 8.1 6.1 6.9

September 6.4 7.5 6.5 7.7 6.6 7.5

October 6.2 7.2 7.6 8.5 6.8 7.3

November 6.3 7.4 7.7 8.2 7 7.7

December 9.6 7.1 7.7 8.3 8.2 8.8

January 7.5 7.8 7.6 8.2 8.9 9.4

February 7.6 8.1 7.3 8.3 9.8 10.2

March 8.1 8.7 8 9.3 10.2 11.8


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2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

9.7 10.1 10.4 9.8

10.1 11.3 11.6 10.7

9.9 10.8 10.7 10.69.1 9.7 9.5 10.7

8.9 8.8 8.8 10

8.6 8.4 8.9

8.2 8.1 8.4

8.8 8.6 7.6

9.4 9.7 8.2

10.5 10.3 9.6

10.9 10.6 10.4

11.1 10.9 11.3


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Year Quarter Production

2000-01 1 19.2

2000-01 2 17.1

2000-01 3 22.1

2000-01 4 23.2

2001-02 1 21.4

2001-02 2 21.9

2001-02 3 21.7

2001-02 4 24.6

2002-03 1 24.5

2002-03 2 21.5

2002-03 3 25

2002-03 4 22.9

2003-04 1 26.2

2003-04 2 23

2003-04 3 25

2003-04 4 25.8

2004-05 1 26.6

2004-05 2 19.7

2004-05 3 22

2004-05 4 28.9

2005-06 1 28.1

2005-06 2 24.1


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5/33

MAXIMUM 184.43 159.85

MINIMUM 96.83 82.38

odified mea 108.14 93.12

402.9

Step 6 djust the Modified Mean

Quarter Unadjusted Indices Adjusting Constant

1 108.14 0.99

2 93.12 0.99

3 92.23 0.99

4 109.42 0.99

Total of Seasonal Indices

Mean of Seasonal indices

Total of

Indices


6/33

81.6 20.420.68

83.8 20.95

21.55

88.6 22.15

22.1

88.2 22.05

22.23

89.6 22.4

22.79

92.7 23.18

23.13

92.3 23.08

23.49

95.6 23.9

23.69

93.9 23.48

23.69

95.6 23.9

24.09

97.1 24.28

24.28

97.1 24.28

24.64

100 25

25.05

100.4 25.1

24.69

97.1 24.28

23.9

94.1 23.53

23.9197.2 24.3

24.49

98.7 24.68

25.45

104.9 26.23

26.23

104.9 26.23

26.54

Step 1:4 -Quarter Moving Total

Step 2 :4 -Quarter Moving

Average

Step 3:4 -Quartered

CenteredMoving Average


7/33

107.4 26.85

27.05

109 27.25

27.56

111.5 27.88

28.2

114.1 28.53

28.66115.2 28.8

29.11

117.7 29.43

29.46

118 29.5

29.5

118 29.5

29.41

117.3 29.33

29.39117.8 29.45

29.49

118.1 29.53

29.25

115.9 28.98

28.91

115.4 28.85

28.65

113.8 28.45

24.6183.1 20.78

16.86

51.8 12.95

12.95

Q3 Q4

95.23 106.38

105.54 95.07

99.8 104.51

89.84 113.56

87.99 113.92

90.68 110.31

89.83 107.84

84.47 127.17


8/33

105.54 127.17

84.47 95.07

92.23 109.42

Seasonal Index

107.36

92.45

91.56

108.63

400

100


9/33

106.89

107.66

96.83

98.54

95.23

106.38

104.31

90.77

105.54

95.07

107.93

93.35

99.8

104.51

111.3

82.38

89.84

113.56

107.15

90.81

Step 4 :Percentage of Actual toMoving average Values


10/33

87.99

113.92

105.32

92.8

90.68

110.31

109.15

91.46

89.83

107.84

111.79

94.08

84.47

127.17

184.43

159.85


11/33


12/33

Year Quarter Actual Production Seasonal Index/100

2000-01 1 19.2 1.07

2000-01 2 17.1 0.92

2000-01 3 22.1 0.92

2000-01 4 23.2 1.09

2001-02 1 21.4 1.07

2001-02 2 21.9 0.92

2001-02 3 21.7 0.92

2001-02 4 24.6 1.09

2002-03 1 24.5 1.07

2002-03 2 21.5 0.92

2002-03 3 25 0.92

2002-03 4 22.9 1.09

2003-04 1 26.2 1.07

2003-04 2 23 0.92

2003-04 3 25 0.92

2003-04 4 25.8 1.09

2004-05 1 26.6 1.07

2004-05 2 19.7 0.92

2004-05 3 22 0.92

2004-05 4 28.9 1.09

2005-06 1 28.1 1.07

2005-06 2 24.1 0.92


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2005-06 3 23.8 0.92

2005-06 4 31.4 1.09

2006-07 1 29.7 1.07

2006-07 2 26.6 0.92

2006-07 3 26.4 0.92

2006-07 4 32.5 1.09

2007-08 1 32.2 1.07

2007-08 2 26.9 0.92

2007-08 3 26.4 0.92

2007-08 4 31.8 1.09

2008-09 1 32.7 1.07

2008-09 2 27.2 0.92

2008-09 3 24.2 0.92

2008-09 4 31.3 1.09

2009-10 1 31.1 1.07

2009-10 2 20.7 0.92


14/33

17.88

18.5

24.14

21.36

19.93

23.69

23.7

22.65

22.82

23.26

27.3

21.08

24.4

24.88

27.3

23.75

24.78

21.31

24.03

26.6

26.17

26.07

Deseasonlized ProductionActutal Production/Seasonal

Index


15/33

25.99

28.91

27.66

28.77

28.83

29.92

29.99

29.1

28.83

29.27

30.46

29.42

26.43

28.81

28.97

22.39


16/33


17/33

2005-06 3 25.99

2005-06 4 28.91

2006-07 1 27.66

2006-07 2 28.77

2006-07 3 28.83

2006-07 4 29.92

2007-08 1 29.99

2007-08 2 29.1

2007-08 3 28.83

2007-08 4 29.27

2008-09 1 30.46

2008-09 2 29.42

2008-09 3 26.43

2008-09 4 28.81

2009-10 1 28.97

2009-10 2 22.39

Column1 Y Y'

Err:508 Err:508

1 Least -Square Method -Linear

a) Slope of Trend Line Formulae

b=xY/x2

b) Intercept Formulae

a=Y'

c) Linear Equation Formulae

Y^=a+bx

d) Projections Year


18/33

2009-10

2009-10

2010-11

2010-11

2010-11

2010-11

2011-12

2011-122011-12

2011-12

2

a) Formulae Y=an+cx2

x2Y=ax2+cx4

b=xY/x2

b) Values a

24.47

c) Equation Formulae

Y^=a+bx+cx2

d) Projections Year

2009-10

2009-10

2010-11

2010-11

2010-11

2010-11

2011-12

2011-12

2011-12

2011-12

Using Least - SqureMethod

-Non Linear


19/33

x xY x2 x4 x2Y

-17.5 -37 -661.71 1369 1874161 24483.33

-16.5 -35 -647.41 1225 1500625 22659.29

-15.5 -33 -796.49 1089 1185921 26284.01

-14.5 -31 -662.05 961 923521 20523.66

-13.5 -29 -578.07 841 707281 16763.92

-12.5 -27 -639.62 729 531441 17269.74

-11.5 -25 -592.48 625 390625 14811.91

-10.5 -23 -520.84 529 279841 11979.38

-9.5 -21 -479.24 441 194481 10063.99

-8.5 -19 -441.88 361 130321 8395.75

-7.5 -17 -464.15 289 83521 7890.59

-6.5 -15 -316.21 225 50625 4743.09

-5.5 -13 -317.26 169 28561 4124.33

-4.5 -11 -273.67 121 14641 3010.42

-3.5 -9 -245.73 81 6561 2211.55

-2.5 -7 -166.25 49 2401 1163.75

-1.5 -5 -123.88 25 625 619.42

-0.5 -3 -63.93 9 81 191.79

-1 -24.03 1 1 24.03

0

1 26.6 1 1 26.6

0.5 3 78.52 9 81 235.57

1.5 5 130.35 25 625 651.74

Translating or Codingthe

Time Variable ,x=X-X'


20/33

2.5 7 181.95 49 2401 1273.63

3.5 9 260.15 81 6561 2341.31

4.5 11 304.31 121 14641 3347.4

5.5 13 374.06 169 28561 4862.76

6.5 15 432.48 225 50625 6487.21

7.5 17 508.6 289 83521 8646.19

8.5 19 569.87 361 130321 10827.52

9.5 21 611.06 441 194481 12832.31

10.5 23 663.14 529 279841 15252.15

11.5 25 731.83 625 390625 18295.76

12.5 27 822.39 729 531441 22204.5

13.5 29 853.26 841 707281 24744.52

14.5 31 819.31 961 923521 25398.62

15.5 33 950.83 1089 1185921 31377.3

16.5 35 1013.9 1225 1500625 35486.42

17.5 37 828.49 1369 1874161 30654.05

Column2 Column3 xY x2 x4 x2y

Err:508 Err:509 Err:509 Err:508

Value

Err:509

Value

Err:508

Value

25.509+.1323x

Quarter x Y^


21/33

3 18.5 27.96

4 19.5 28.09

1 20.5 28.22

2 21.5 28.35

3 22.5 28.49

4 23.5 28.62

1 24.5 28.75

2 25.5 28.883 26.5 29.01

4 27.5 29.15

b c

Err:509 0

Value

.467+.1323x+..002548x2

Quarter x Y^

3 18.5 27.79

4 19.5 28.02

1 20.5 28.25

2 21.5 28.49

3 22.5 28.73

4 23.5 28.98

1 24.5 29.24

2 25.5 29.5

3 26.5 29.76

4 27.5 30.03


22/33

1) Linear

Year Quarter Deseasonlised Production, Y x

2000-01 1 17.88 -37

2000-01 2 18.5 -35

2000-01 3 24.14 -33

2000-01 4 21.36 -31

2001-02 1 19.93 -29

2001-02 2 23.69 -27

2001-02 3 23.7 -25

2001-02 4 22.65 -23

2002-03 1 22.82 -21

2002-03 2 23.26 -19

2002-03 3 27.3 -17

2002-03 4 21.08 -15

2003-04 1 24.4 -13

2003-04 2 24.88 -11

2003-04 3 27.3 -9

2003-04 4 23.75 -7

2004-05 1 24.78 -5

2004-05 2 21.31 -3

2004-05 3 24.03 -1

2004-05 4 26.6 1

2005-06 1 26.17 3

2005-06 2 26.07 5


23/33


24/33

2001-02 1 19.93 -29

2001-02 2 23.69 -27

2001-02 3 23.7 -25

2001-02 4 22.65 -23

2002-03 1 22.82 -21

2002-03 2 23.26 -19

2002-03 3 27.3 -17

2002-03 4 21.08 -15

2003-04 1 24.4 -13

2003-04 2 24.88 -11

2003-04 3 27.3 -9

2003-04 4 23.75 -7

2004-05 1 24.78 -5

2004-05 2 21.31 -3

2004-05 3 24.03 -1

2004-05 4 26.6 1

2005-06 1 26.17 3

2005-06 2 26.07 5

2005-06 3 25.99 7

2005-06 4 28.91 9

2006-07 1 27.66 11

2006-07 2 28.77 13

2006-07 3 28.83 15

2006-07 4 29.92 17


25/33

2007-08 1 29.99 19

2007-08 2 29.1 21

2007-08 3 28.83 23

2007-08 4 29.27 25

2008-09 1 30.46 27

2008-09 2 29.42 29

2008-09 3 26.43 31

2008-09 4 28.81 33

2009-10 1 28.97 35

2009-10 2 22.39 37

solute Deviation (Y-Y^)/n Err:508


26/33

Y^ Y-Y^

20.61 -2.73

20.88 -2.38

21.14 2.99

21.41 -0.05

21.67 -1.74

21.94 1.75

22.2 1.5

22.47 0.18

22.73 0.09

23 0.26

23.26 4.04

23.52 -2.44

23.79 0.62

24.05 0.83

24.32 2.98

24.58 -0.83

24.85 -0.07

25.11 -3.8

25.38 -1.35

25.64 0.96

25.91 0.27

26.17 -0.1


27/33

26.44 -0.44

26.7 2.21

26.96 0.7

27.23 1.54

27.49 1.34

27.76 2.16

28.02 1.97

28.29 0.81

28.55 0.28

28.82 0.46

29.08 1.38

29.35 0.08

29.61 -3.18

29.87 -1.06

30.14 -1.17

30.4 -8.01

Y^ Y-Y^

23.06 -5.18

22.96 -4.46

22.88 1.26

22.81 -1.46


28/33

22.77 -2.84

22.75 0.94

22.75 0.95

22.77 -0.13

22.81 0.01

22.87 0.38

22.95 4.35

23.06 -1.98

23.18 1.23

23.32 1.56

23.48 3.82

23.67 0.08

23.87 0.91

24.09 -2.78

24.34 -0.31

24.6 2

24.89 1.29

25.19 0.88

25.52 0.47

25.86 3.04

26.23 1.43

26.62 2.16

27.02 1.81

27.45 2.47


29/33


30/33

Year Quarter x

2000-01 1 17.88 -37

2000-01 2 18.5 -35

2000-01 3 24.14 -33

2000-01 4 21.36 -31

2001-02 1 19.93 -29

2001-02 2 23.69 -27

2001-02 3 23.7 -25

2001-02 4 22.65 -23

2002-03 1 22.82 -21

2002-03 2 23.26 -19

2002-03 3 27.3 -17

2002-03 4 21.08 -15

2003-04 1 24.4 -13

2003-04 2 24.88 -11

2003-04 3 27.3 -9

2003-04 4 23.75 -7

2004-05 1 24.78 -5

2004-05 2 21.31 -3

2004-05 3 24.03 -1

2004-05 4 26.6 1

2005-06 1 26.17 3

2005-06 2 26.07 5

DeseasonalisedProduction

Y


31/33

2005-06 3 25.99 7

2005-06 4 28.91 9

2006-07 1 27.66 11

2006-07 2 28.77 13

2006-07 3 28.83 15

2006-07 4 29.92 17

2007-08 1 29.99 19

2007-08 2 29.1 21

2007-08 3 28.83 23

2007-08 4 29.27 25

2008-09 1 30.46 27

2008-09 2 29.42 29

2008-09 3 26.43 31

2008-09 4 28.81 33

2009-10 1 28.97 35

2009-10 2 22.39 37


32/33

Y^=a+bx

20.61 86.76 -13.24

20.88 88.6 -11.4

21.14 114.16 14.16

21.41 99.76 -0.24

21.67 91.98 -8.02

21.94 107.99 7.99

22.2 106.75 6.75

22.47 100.8 0.8

22.73 100.4 0.4

23 101.14 1.14

23.26 117.38 17.38

23.52 89.61 -10.39

23.79 102.59 2.59

24.05 103.43 3.43

24.32 112.27 12.27

24.58 96.61 -3.39

24.85 99.72 -0.28

25.11 84.86 -15.14

25.38 94.68 -5.32

25.64 103.75 3.75

25.91 101.04 1.04

26.17 99.61 -0.39

Percentageof Trend(y/Y^)*100

Relative Cyclical Residual(Y-Y^)*100/Y^


33/33

26.44 98.33 -1.67

26.7 108.26 8.26

26.96 102.6 2.6

27.23 105.67 5.67

27.49 104.87 4.87

27.76 107.78 7.78

28.02 107.03 7.03

28.29 102.87 2.87

28.55 100.98 0.98

28.82 101.58 1.58

29.08 104.74 4.74

29.35 100.26 0.26

29.61 89.26 -10.74

29.87 96.45 -3.55

30.14 96.11 -3.89

30.4 73.65 -26.35

Documents

Electric Fan Industry