A Comprehensive Election Night Viewing Guide

By Daniel Berman

With the first polls closing in a little over 24 hours, it’s important to know what to pay attention to, and

what to disregard. As a consequence, I have put together this election night viewing guide, which I hope

will also provide advice on what to ignore in the media coverage of the day itself. While elections tend

to produce a lot of static, a situation only worsened by the spread of communications tools like twitter,

it is quite possible to get a clear picture relatively early on election day. While it was not clear that

George Bush would be reelected in 2004 until after 9PM, it was quite apparent that Exit Polls showing

John Kerry up were in error by 7:20PM Eastern time, if people knew where to look.

Before the Polls Close:

Exit Poll Leaks: Beginning at around 4PM, networks will begin leaking exit poll results. These will not

include the toplines, aka the actual projected vote total for the candidates, but will include demographic

data, including for instance what percentage of voters define themselves as “conservatives” or how

many voters believe the country is on the right track. These numbers are provisional, based on the first

two of what is normally three waves of interviews with voters, and the third wave often differs

substantially from the first two. Furthermore, initial exit polls are often at variance with results by

several points, and recalibrated to meet those results. That said, useful information can be gathered.

Certain responses correlate closely with voting intentions. Those who believe they are likely to be worse

off economically will vote overwhelmingly for Romney. Those who think they will better will vote

heavily for Obama. Those who think they will be the same will likely break towards Obama.

Secondly, sites such as Drudge will release things that look like the toplines for exit polls. Every point of

wariness above should be doubled for these. At best these are toplines reverse-engineered from the

network leaks. At worst they are pure fabrications.

Turnout Reports: It is almost certain that in the absence of results, the media will focus on reports of

turnout. TV presenters will claim that there are multi-hour lines to vote, that the turnout is

unprecedented in minority/republican areas. In states with same-day registration, leaks will indicate

turnout over 100%.

All of these reports should be ignored. Turnout is almost impossible to gauge from incidental reports,

and lines are more often a sign of incompetent election administration, a clear consequence is lower

turnout from disgruntled voters, than they are of high turnout. In Ohio in 2004, the highest turnout

precincts, generally in Republican areas had few lines. By contrast, multi-hour lines in Cleveland this past

Sunday produced turnout 40% below that in the same period in 2008.

The precincts with the highest turnout will be those that get voters in and out as quickly as possible. This

is especially true in states like Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, where in contrast to 2004, between

30% and 50% of the vote has already been cast. Lines should not be extending for hours at 9PM in

Cleveland with half as many voters turning out on election day, and if they are, it’s a sign that there is

something seriously wrong going on which is likely to hurt rather than help Obama.

Election Night:

Precincts: Throughout the night, a number of media sources will use the term “% precincts reporting”. It

is important to note that this is not an estimate of percentage of the vote outstanding. Precincts are

different sizes, and many are in fact empty or phantom precincts. This is especially true with the rise in

early voting. Many counties report their early and absentee numbers in the form of a single precinct,

meaning that all other precincts combined may account for less than 50% of the total vote. Some sites

will attempt to estimate the percentage of the vote outstanding. These tend to be more accurate, but

are still based on estimates.

6-7PM: States Closing: Kentucky(part), Indiana(Part) State: Kentucky 2008 Result: 57-41 McCain 2004 Result: 60-40 Bush 2000 Result: 56-41 Bush Results Trend: Democratic to Republicans Early Voting : NA At 6PM Eastern time, polls close in the state of Indiana and in parts of Kentucky. Because several Kentucky counties are located within the central time zone, they remain open until 7PM. In years past, this meant that exit poll results for the state were not released until that time. This year, with no exit poll in Kentucky this is not an issue. There are few races to watch in Kentucky this year. Republicans are hoping to win control of the State House of Representatives, controlled by Democrats 58-42, of the sixth congressional district held by Democrat Ben Chandler. Otherwise there is little to see. Furthermore, the changing partisan alignments of counties within the state, with Louisville trending Democratic, and traditionally Democratic Coal Counties trending Republican, makes early result hard to interpret. Initial numbers in the East led Karl Rove to almost call the election for McCain in 2008, and Barrack Obama actually led early in the evening. State: Indiana 2008 Result: 50-49 Obama 2004 Result: 60-39 Bush 2000 Result: 58-41 Bush Results Trend: Democratic to Republican % Voting Early/2008: Less than 15% Early Vote Breakdown: Unavailable Rating: Safe Romney

On the Presidential level, the neighboring state of Indiana, one of the great surprises of 2008, is far less interesting this year. Obama’s campaign wrote it off from the start, and the only question remaining is where between its 2004 and 2008 numbers it ends. This does not mean there is no reason to hit refresh on your browser. Vigo County has picked the correct winner in every election since 1956. Obama might survive a narrow loss there nationally, but much more than that would be a serious warning sign. Also worth following is the Senate race between Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republican Richard Mourdock. Mourdock knocked off incumbent Republican Senator Richard Lugar in the primary and then led until unfortunate remarks about rape torpedoed his campaign. Nonetheless, Indiana is a Republican state, Donnelly has struggled to top 47%, and Romney will win comfortably. Furthermore, a close race in 2010 turned into a 16 point blowout for the Republican. If Mourdock pulls off a win, it indicates bad things for other Democrats running in red states including Jon Tester in Montana, Heidi Heitkemp in North Dakota and Richard Carmona in Arizona. It also almost certainly means Republicans will gain seats. 7PM States Closing: Florida(part) Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia State: Virginia 2008 Result: 52-47 Obama 2004 Result: 53-46 Bush 2000 Result: 52-44 Bush Results Trend: Very Republican to Democratic % Voting Early/2008: Less than 13% Early Vote Breakdown: Unavailable At this hour we begin to see interesting states closing, though tragically this year only Virginia will have an exit poll at 7:30. Some of the same caveats above apply to initial exit polls. People should not try and use them to figure out the winner of a state unless there is a clear cut margin of more than 6 or so points. If, as expected, Virginia’s numbers are close, there probably will not be much to see for a while. Keep an eye on exurban Loudoun and Prince William counties, if Obama is winning them he is winning the state, if he is losing them badly he is in for a bad night not just in Virginia, but potentially in the Philly Suburbs as well. Also keep in mind that Democratic areas come in very late, and Obama will likely trail most of the night. In 2008 he did not overtake McCain until nearly 80% of the vote was counted. The Virginia Senate race has been one of the closest in the country, with Kaine putting distance on Allen in the last few weeks. While both Kaine and Obama will trail badly in early results, the difference between them will be informative. If Kaine is consistently running ahead of Obama, odds that he wins will suddenly look quite substantial. Also worth noting; Virginia has very limited early voting, and with less than 13% of the electorate taking advantage of it, election day voting will matter far more than in other competitive states other than Michigan and Pennsylvania. Given the dependence of Obama in the state on younger voters, and voters in the northern, colder part of the state, leaves him very vulnerable to low turnout, lines, and voter confusion.

State: Florida 2008 Result: 52-48 Obama 2004 Result: 52-47 Bush 2000 Result: 49-49 Bush Results Trend: Uniform % Voting Early/2008: 53% Early Vote Breakdown: 43% D 39% R 18% I(46% D 37% R 11% I in 2008) Florida will not have an exit poll until 8PM because polls in the Panhandle will remain open until 8PM ET. Nonetheless, Florida results tend to be very representative early on. The first indication John Kerry was in trouble was the fact that he seemed to be constantly trailing by about five points in Florida, and Bush swept the I-4 Corridor(Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Sarasota Counties). If Obama is losing Pinellas, Florida is probably gone. If he seems to be consistently down by the mid-hour, his odds of taking the state will be quite low. The Senate race which was at one point competitive is so no longer, except in the event of a Romney sweep. Be on the watch for Romney falling behind. If by some chance he is behind at any point after 15% of precincts are reporting, it’s a bad sign for him nationally. The swing areas of Florida are close enough to those in Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia to mean that if Romney is losing them his hopes of carrying any of those states are likely to be nonexistent. State: Georgia 2008 Result: 52-47 McCain 2004 Result: 58-41 Bush 2000 Result: 54-43 Bush Results Trend: Uniform % Voting Early/2008: 48% Early Vote Breakdown: 59% White, 34% AA, 7% Other Georgia, after being at the edge of competiveness in 2008, is almost certainly out of reach for Obama this year. Despite trends similar to those in neighboring North Carolina such as an activist African American populations and rising non-white electorate, whites are sufficiently cohesive to prevent the state from being genuinely competitive. Obama did better with whites here(23%) than he did in neighboring Alabama(10%) or Mississippi(11%), but that number is likely to fall this year. Not as far as it has in neighboring states, a growing Atlanta will maintain a core of white democratic votes, but its unlikely that any real Democratic breakthrough will happen here as long as Barack Obama is President. Nonetheless, Obama should over-perform his national swing here, likely holding any lost to 7-8 points, and networks may be reluctant to call the state early. 7:30PM States Closing: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia State: North Carolina 2008 Result: 49-49 Obama 2004 Result: 56-44 Bush

2000 Result: 56-44 Bush Results Trend: Initial Democratic surge followed by a slight but consistent Republican to Democratic Trend % Voting Early/2008: 63% Early Vote Breakdown: 67% White, 27% AA 5% Other(69% White, 26% AA, 5% Other in 2008), 47% D, 32% R, 21% I(51%D, 30% R, 19% I in 2008) North Carolina, which was finally called for Barack Obama nearly a week after the 2008 election, was one of the big surprises of the night. A booming educational and tech sector had led to a boom in migrants from outside the south, while the state underwent the same increased minority trend visible in the rest of the south. Yet these trends, while real, can be overstated. In what was an unprecedented effort, Obama managed to win the state by only 14,000 out of nearly 4.5 million cast. In 2010, Republicans took control of the state legislature for the first time since the Mugabe-style “elections” of 1898, and earlier this year the voters of the state banned recognition of both Gay Marriage and Civil Unions by a vote of 61-39. It remains a lean-republican state federally, and the Republican Patrick McCory is set to sweep to victory by a double-digit margin. Furthermore, Democrats here have not been immune to the defection of white voters evident in the rest of the south. While 31% of white voters are Democrats compared to 45% who are Republicans, those numbers for whites under age 45 are 44% and 25% respectively, no trend to Obama among the youth here. While Obama should hold up better here than nationally, and probably better than some pollsters show, white democrats seem to have been replaced with black ones, its highly unlikely he has much chance of victory. The most important election in the state is actually not for President or Governor, but for the State Supreme Court. If Democratic Sam Ervin IV defeats Republican incumbent Paul Newby he will likely provide the deciding vote to strike down Republican redistricting maps for the state legislature which otherwise all but guarantee Republican majorities for the decade. State: Ohio 2008 Result: 51-47 Obama 2004 Result: 51-49 Bush 2000 Result: 50-46 Bush Results Trend: Mostly Uniform with a slight Democratic Trend % Voting Early/2008: 31% Early Vote Breakdown: Cuyahoga County(Cleveland) 249K votes(252K in 2008), Franklin County(Cincinnati) 222K(209K in 2008) Ohio is the big prize of the election, or so it has been spun. In reality, Mitt Romney has consistently struggled in the polls. While he has managed to get close to Obama, and nearly a third of the final polls have him either tied or down only one, few polls have ever shown him up. Whether it is the lingering impact of the auto-bailout, or Obama’s laser-like focus on the state, Romney clearly is struggling. And efforts to add Pennsylvania(a much better demographic match), are indicative of this. It is also this Ohio lead upon which Nate Silver has based a large part of both his predictive model and his reputation.

While indications are favorable to Obama, the problem with Ohio is the problem with the entire election. If you buy that Ohio is lean Obama, then so is the election. If you are skeptical of the polls in Ohio, then you are skeptical as to whether the election is truly over. Ohio has not been a particularly friendly state for Democrats. In recent years they have struggled to win statewide, winning nothing between 1994 and 2006, and losing every statewide office in 2010, along with an open Senate seat by 18 points. Obama’s entire Ohio strategy, and the bets everyone else have placed on it succeeding, depend on voters who everywhere else in the country are voting for Romney voting differently in Ohio than they are everywhere else. This is especially true of blue collar white males, who have proven a difficult demographic for Obama since the 2008 primaries. Ohio has virtually no history of going Democratic in close elections. Obama’s 51.38% was the only time a Democrat reached 50% since Johnson in 1964, and prior to that the previous Democrat to do so was Roosevelt in 1940. Precedents exist to be broken, but when entire models, and virtually the entire consensus in favor of Obama rely on breaking them completely, a degree of caution is always in order. 8PM: States Closing: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington, DC At about this time of night, the results in a number of states that closed earlier should be becoming clearer. If Romney is going to win Florida by anything more than three points, it should be clear by this point. The Senate race in Indiana should be decided. The States closing at 8PM therefore are in some ways less interesting than the results else ware. And most of the interest will be on Senate races, of which there are competitive contests in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. Of these, Democrats are probably favored in all four. Linda McMahon, the wealthy founder of WWE, has floundered after leading for most of her second campaign for Senate in Connecticut. Scott Brown, whose surprise win in 2010 denied Democrats their supermajority, has been struggling against the lean of the state, and while he has recovered from his September low, he probably remains slightly behind Democrat Elizabeth Warren. Democrat Claire McCaskill was considered DOA in Missouri prior to the implosion of her opponent Todd Akin, who used the term “legitimate rape” and suggested its victims biologically could not become pregnant. Republicans, including Mitt Romney abandoned him, and his money dried out. Yet after the deadline for his withdrawal passed on September 24th, national Republicans rushed back in, and recent polls have painted a confused picture. Some have McCaskill up double-digits, while others show a near tie. McCaskill has had trouble hitting 50%, and an upset is far from impossible. Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent in Pennsylvania has squandered a large lead against his self-funding Republican opponent Tom Smith, but his name and Obama’s turnout in Philadelphia should be enough to win the state. Of these, only two states are competitive at the Presidentiall level. State: New Hampshire 2008 Result: 53-45 Obama 2004 Result: 51-49 Kerry

2000 Result: 48-46 Bush Results Trend: Mostly Uniform with a slight Republican Trend Early Voting: No Significant Early Voting New Hampshire figures in an odd place in American politics. A formerly solid Republican state, it saw a large Democratic swing in the early 2000s. This trend had already begun in 2000, when a strong performance by Ralph Nader denied Gore the state by 7,000 votes, and with it, the Presidency. In 2004, Kerry consolidated that vote to rack up his only gain of the night. In 2006, a Democratic wave delivered the state legislature to the Democrats, and in 2008, despite McCain’s local popularity, Obama won the state easily. In 2010 however the pendulum swung back. Republicans won almost 75% of the seats in the legislature, and won an open senate seat 60-36. New Hampshire is the closest thing in the United States to a “Tory” state. Its politics are fundamentally conservative, but in a European rather than American context, with a strong respect for traditions, institutions, and the status quo, and a strong distrust of populism. It is not surprising that the state rejected the untried Barack Obama for the old war horse Hillary Clinton in 2008, nor is it surprising that it was the only state where Jon Huntsman broke through during the Republican primaries this year. New Hampshire’s leftward trend at the end of the 1990s was driven by the increased radicalism of the national Republican party following the Clinton impeachment and the Gingrich revolution, and the Iraq war provoked an isolationist reaction that lasted through 2009. But Iraq was not the only cause. State Republicans were also moving to the right, driven by migrants from Massachusetts. Rather than driving the state to the left, as the myth has it, MA transplants in southern New Hampshire are most Rightwing element in the state. Having been driven out of Massachusetts by high property values, and the corresponding high property taxes, they have militantly turned against the liberal politicians they believe produced those, as well as against the social values of Harvard/MIT/Tufts/BU grads who have migrated in-state and driven up housing prices. They provide the local audience for Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, and while generally not religious, they are instinctively reactionary in a populist manner. These voters added an activist element into New Hampshire politics toxic to the state’s old-line conservatism. As they gained control of the legislative Republican caucuses in 2005-2006, New Hampshire voters rejected them. But the Democratic victory was less of an endorsement of Democratic policies than an endorsement of the center. As Democrats moved rapidly to the left in 2009-2010, both nationally, with Obamacare, and locally with the passage of Gay Marriage and tax reform, New Hampshire voters revolted a second time, again in defense of the center. Obama looked doomed here in the summer of 2011. But Romney’s need to run to the right in the primaries hurt him badly here. Furthermore, Romney is very much a creature of the Massachusetts border, and that in turn has bred distrust of him among old-line Republicans. New Hampshire is one place where change almost never wins, and whichever candidate comes off less radical is likely to win. Romney will turnout record numbers in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, but Obama should outperform his 2008 numbers in the northern parts of the state and the Connecticut valley for a narrow win. State: Pennsylvania 2008 Result: 54-44 Obama 2004 Result: 51-48 Kerry

2000 Result: 51-46 Gore Results Trend: Heavily Democratic to Republican Early Voting: No Significant Early Voting(5%) Pennsylvania has long been a Republican target, not least because like Ohio, it is a strongly Republican state at the local level. Republicans have held the State Senate for decades, and control most county governments. With the help of new redistricting maps they hold almost 2/3rds of the Congressional delegation. The key to any Republican victory in the state is to sweep both the Philadelphia Suburbs, and working-class SWPA. In recent years Republicans have managed one or the other, but rarely both at once. Bush swept the suburbs in 2004, but underperformed around Pittsburgh resulting in a narrow loss. McCain did much better out-west, but was crushed in the suburbs. It has been heavily debated whether Romney’s move into the state is an act of desperation or of confidence. It is probably a bit of both. Romney believes, likely correctly, that he is well equipped to win the suburban counties of Bucks, Berks, and Chester, and he held the largest rally in the history of Bucks this weekend. Democrats lost three US House seats in these counties in 2010, so there is reason for optimism, and the local Democratic operation outside of Philadelphia is a mess, crippled by indictments of senior politicians. Romney’s problem will be in SWPA, for which he is a bad match, as is demonstrated by his trouble in next-door Ohio. There are, however, mitigating factors in PA. For one thing, polls show Romney doing much better here than across the border. Secondly, energy provides Romney with an issue, especially given Obama’s opposition to Coal and the Keystone Pipeline. Drilling is the new driving economic force of the region, and Obama is perceived as hostile to its expansion. How narrow Romney’s path to victory actually is, however, is made clear by current Republican Senator Pat Toomey’s narrow victory in 2010. He carried every county in Western Pennsylvania except Allegheny(Pittsburgh) where he held Joe Sestak, the Democrat, to a nine point victory, while also winning every suburban county except for heavily Democratic Delaware and Montgomery. He nonetheless only won 51-49. Can Romney win? Definitely. Will he? It will be tough. 9PM: States Closing: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New

York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

By this point the media should be full of stories of long lines in Cleveland, Columbus, and other cities still in line to vote in Ohio, and panicked spokesman threatening lawsuits. Odds are a federal judge will have issued an order or two keeping them open. On a more meaningful note, most of the states in this time period should be called quickly. New Mexico, Michigan, and Arizona should be within high single-digits, but their outcome should never be in doubt. The same should be true of Senate races in all three, with Democrats sweeping New Mexico and Michigan, and Republican Jeff Flake defeating Democrat Richard Carmona by 52-46 or so. Presidential results should echo these. Colorado and Wisconsin are different matters.

Florida and North Carolina should also have clear trends. If they have not been called for Mitt Romney at this point of the night, his odds of winning the election are likely to be exceedingly poor. Even if he eventually prevails, victories of less than three points in North Carolina and two points in Florida are bad signs for the national results, and absent a potential Sandy effect on turnout in the North East, would almost guarantee an Obama victory in the popular vote.

State: Colorado 2008 Result: 53-45 Obama 2004 Result: 51-49 Kerry 2000 Result: 48-46 Bush Results Trend: Uniform – 70% of vote is early % Voting Early/2008: 71% Early Vote Breakdown: 34.6% D 36.6% R 28.8% I(37.7% D, 35.9% R, 27.4% I in 2008, 40.7% R, 34.6% D, 24.6% I in 2010) Colorado has long been a case of close but no cigar for Democrats until 2006 when they swept almost everything on the ballot. This was followed up by Obama’s victory in 2008. In 2010, despite a national Republican trend, and partisan Early Voting Breakdown of 41% Republican to 35% Democratic, Democrats held both the Governorship and the Senate seat that was up. Early voting numbers look better for Obama than 2010, but much worse than those of 2008. The state will be very close. The general consensus until the last few days was that Romney was ahead, but Obama seems to have surged in the last few days following Hurricane Sandy, especially among professional woman. In the end Romney is probably marginally favored if he wins the popular vote, but the Democratic ground game here is vastly superior to the Republican. Counting here should be fast, given the large portion of the vote cast before election day. State: Wisconsin 2008 Result: 56-42 Obama 2004 Result: 49-49 Kerry 2000 Result: 48-48 Gore Results Trend: Republican to Democratic % Voting Early/2008: 15% Early Voting Breakdown: No Party registration Wisconsin, despite its progressive tradition, has been a battleground state in recent years. Both Kerry and Gore won it by less than a percentage point, and Bush led in most polling averages going into election day in 2004. Obama’s win was more of an aberration than anything else. Recent events, including two waves of recalls, the second culminating in Republican Governor Scott Walker’s 53-46 survival this June, have given Republicans momentum in the state. Republican activists are mobilized, while many Democrats appear depressed over their June defeat. Obama drew only 18,000 for a Bruce Springsteen Concert in the capital of Madison, heart of the Democratic stronghold of Dane county. A similar concert in 2004 drew more than 80,000 for John Kerry. While Early Voting numbers are higher than in June, they are below 2008, and there is little visible media energy.

Dane and Milwaukee will go heavily for Obama, and in fact went more heavily against Walker than they did in 2010. Obama’s problem lies in the rural counties in the northwest and in Green Bay, both of which he carried in 2008, and which Walker swept by almost 20 points in June. Kerry won these areas as well, and there seems to a definite Democratic decline. These are not natural Obama voters, and in some ways the dynamics are worse for him are worse here than in Ohio. The Senate race between Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin and former Governor Tommy Thompson has closed after Baldwin led for several months. Baldwin, who if elected would be the first openly gay member of the senate, is closely identified with Dane County which she represents, not a good association in the post-recall era. Her links to the recall effort further harm her. Thompson however has run a gaffe-prone, anemic campaign, with little energy, while Baldwin has run one of the best campaigns in the country. This race will come down to a battle of campaign v. fundamentals, and Baldwin is probably slightly favored if Obama wins the state. 10PM: States Closing: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

State: Iowa 2008 Result: 54-44 Obama 2004 Result: 50-49 Bush 2000 Result: 48-48 Gore Results Trend: Slight Democratic to Republican % Voting Early/2008: 43% Early Vote Breakdown: 43% D 33%R 24% I(47% D 29% R 24% I in 2008) Iowa has consistently been one of the closest states in the country. As a largely rural, white, state, it’s hardly a perfect state for Obama. Consequently Obama led for most of the spring. In Iowa Democrats generally make up for state’s slight Republican lead with an impressive turnout machine, often winning early voting by large margins. Even in 2010, when Republicans won almost everything on the ballot, Democrats still led the early vote. The margin however matters. In 2004, when Bush won the state narrowly, it was 52,000. In 2008, when Obama won comfortably, it was 93,000. In 2010, it was 17,000. This year it was 66,000, 14,000 more than in 2004 when Bush won by 13,000. Obama has had some bad breaks here recently. The Des Moines Register selected Mitt Romney for its endorsement, the first Republican to receive it since Nixon in 1972. Two Justices who voted for the legalization of Same-Sex Marriage are also up for retention, driving evangelical turnout. All things being equal, Obama is probably marginally behind, if only by a percentage point, which is the margin most polls show.

State: Nevada 2008 Result: 55-43 Obama 2004 Result: 51-48 Bush 2000 Result: 50-46 Bush Results Trend: Uniform % Voting Early/2008: 70%

Early Vote Breakdown: 43% D 38%R 19% I Nevada is a state that combines a strong Democratic demographic trend with the political machine of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a fierce critic of fellow Mormon Mitt Romney. In 2010, Reid was himself all but written off, but ended up winning by almost six percentage points. In 2012, with probably two-thirds of the vote in, Democrats have a lead of 48,000 votes, or six points. While Romney could overcome that on election day, and probably has a good chance to win the state on that day itself, that same machine will be in operation then, and Romney will likely have to win by more than ten points to close the gap. Romney strategists, based on media leaks, seem to have written Nevada off. In a selection of internal polls leaked on November 5th which had Romney leading in Pennsylvania and Ohio by one point, Romney trailed in Nevada. Obama should take the state in anything less than a rout. He should however keep the results close enough to carry incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller over the finish line against Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley. 11PM: States Closing: California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington

None of these states are seriously competitive at the Presidential level, except in the event of a rout. There is a competitive Senate race in North Dakota between Democrat Heidi Heitkemp and Republican Congressman Rick Berg. Heitkemp is the better candidate, but Berg should pull it out with Romney’s coattails. As to the national picture, Pennsylvania should be called by this point, as should North Carolina and Florida if they have not been called yet. Ohio, if it is going to be decided by more than a point should also be called. While the final call was not until 1130PM ET in 2004, it was evident almost forty minutes

earlier that Kerry was unlikely to close the gap sufficiently for provisional to matter.