El Futuro Económico de América Latina: ¿Hecho en China?20interes/economico/...20 30 40 50 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12

El Futuro Económico de América Latina:El Futuro Económico de América Latina:

¿Hecho en China?¿Hecho en China?

11

Ciudad de GuatemalaCiudad de Guatemala

2828--29 de febrero del 201229 de febrero del 2012

Oficina del Economista JefeOficina del Economista Jefe

América Latina y el CaribeAmérica Latina y el Caribe

Banco MundialBanco Mundial

El entorno globalEl entorno globalEl entorno globalEl entorno global

Turbulencia financiera coyunturalTurbulencia financiera coyuntural

2

Coyuntura global marcada por fragilidad y Coyuntura global marcada por fragilidad y

volatilidad financieravolatilidad financiera

1200

1400

1600

1800

60

70

80

90

VIX Index

S&P 500 and VIX Index

VIX Index

S&P500 (rhs)

3Sources: Bloomberg.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-09

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

S&P 500

VIX Index

El epicentro europeoEl epicentro europeo

La reversión de las fortunasLa reversión de las fortunas

South AfricaRomaniaRussiaBrazil

VietnamPeru

PanamaColombiaIndonesiaPhillipines

TukeyKazakhastan

UkrainVenezuelaArgentina

Global Sovereign CDS

31-Dec-2007, in basis points

TurkeySlovak Rep

BulgariaSpain

RomaniaItaly

Croatiaavg

HungaryIreland

ArgentinaUkraine

VenezuelaPortugalGreece

Global Sovereign CDSFeb-2012, in basis points

4Notes: In panel A, for Ireland we use the first CDS quote available (August 2008). Sources: Bloomberg.

0 500 1000 1500 2000

SwedenGermanyFrance

BelgiumSpain

PortugalSlovak Rep

IrelandGreece

ItalyPolandChile

MalaysiaKorea

HungaryThailandCroatiaMexicoBulgaria

South Africa

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

SwedenGermany

ChilePanamaMalaysia

ColombiaMexicoBrazilKoreaPeru

PhillipinesFrance

IndonesiaSouth Africa

ThailandRussia

BelgiumPoland

KazakhastanTurkey


Trauma y drama Trauma y drama –– ¿cuánto más por venir?¿cuánto más por venir?

1500

2000

2500

CDS (5 years) in Europe

In Basis Points

Ireland+Greece+Portugal

France

UK

Spain

Italy

5Notes: In panel A, for Ireland we use the first CDS quote available (August 2008). Sources: Bloomberg.

0

500

1000

1500

Aug-10

Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Italy


1 moneda, 17 deudas soberanas1 moneda, 17 deudas soberanas

15%

20%

25%

Spreads Over German Bonds

In %

Official Launch of the EuroPortugal

Greece

Ireland

6Source: Bloomberg

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Mar-93

Apr-94

May-95

Jun-96

Jul-97

Aug-98

Sep-99

Oct-00

Nov-01

Jan-03

Feb-04

Mar-05

Apr-06

May-07

Jun-08

Jul-09

Aug-10

Sep-11

Ireland

France

Italy

Spain


Heterogeneidad estructural y la trampa CDMHeterogeneidad estructural y la trampa CDM

120

140

160

180

200

Unit Labor Costs in Europe

Index base 100 = q1-2000

Germany

Italy

Portugal

Greece

France

Spain

20.0%

Debt Sustainability in Europe

Theoretical vs Actual Primary Balance

Actual

7

80

100

Q1-2000

Q3-2000

Q1-2001

Q3-2001

Q1-2002

Q3-2002

Q1-2003

Q3-2003

Q1-2004

Q3-2004

Q1-2005

Q3-2005

Q1-2006

Q3-2006

Q1-2007

Q3-2007

Q1-2008

Q3-2008

Q1-2009

Q3-2009

Q1-2010

Q3-2010

Q1-2011

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Greece France Ireland Portugal Italy Spain

% of GDP

Actual

Theoretical

Source: EuroStats and Bloomberg. For panel B, the theoretical primary balances is calculated using the last observation of the nominal interests rates on 10ys bonds, and assuming a long term inflation and growth of 1.5% and 2%, respectively.

El epicentro estadounidenceEl epicentro estadounidence

Débil recuperación económica: Keynes vs. FischerDébil recuperación económica: Keynes vs. Fischer

5.0%

10.0%

60

70

Industrial Production and ISM Index

Industrial Production (YoY %)

110

115

120

125

130

135

Index base 100 = Iq -2003

US Economic Activity

GDP Index base 100 = Iq - 2003

2003-2007 trend

8Sources: Consensus Forecasts (Feb-2012)and Bloomberg.

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Industrial Production (YoY)

ISM Index

ISM Index

Industrial Production

90

95

100

105

110

Mar-03

Dec-03

Sep-04

Jun-05

Mar-06

Dec-06

Sep-07

Jun-08

Mar-09

Dec-09

Sep-10

Jun-11

Mar-12

Index base 100 = Iq

El epicentro El epicentro estadounidenceestadounidence

Menor calificación crediticia pero el lugar de refugioMenor calificación crediticia pero el lugar de refugio

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

Percent

USD

Gold and US T10

2011-2012

110

115

Foreign Currencies Per DollarIndex base 100 = 1-Jan-2011

Yen UK Pound

Euro Real

9Source: Bloomberg

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1200

1300

1400

1500

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov…

Dec-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Gold

US T10

90

95

100

105

Dec-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

El entorno globalEl entorno globalEl entorno globalEl entorno global

Multipolaridad económicaMultipolaridad económica

10

Desacoplamiento cíclico Desacoplamiento cíclico –– centro vs. periferiacentro vs. periferia

95

100

105

110

115

120

World Industrial ProductionIndex Apr-08 = 100

Crisis

Advanced Economies

Emerging Economies

8% 11% 8%100%

Contribution to World Economic GDPas a % of World GDP increase (PPP)

11Note: The group of developed countries refers to OECD countries excluding Turkey, Mexico, Republic of Korea, and Central European countries. Source: CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis).

80

85

90

Jan-

06

Aug

-06

Mar

-07

Oct

-07

May

-08

Dec

-08

Jul-0

9

Feb-

10

Sep-

10

Apr

-11

51%38%

27%

34%

44%57%

8% 7% 8%

8% 11% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1996-2001 2001-2006 2009-2011

Others Other Advanced EconomiesEM - 20 Euro (15)+US+Japan+Canada+UK

Cambios tectónicos en la distribución de la Cambios tectónicos en la distribución de la

actividad económica globalactividad económica global

70%

80%

90%

100%

Share of World GDP

Advanced economies

Emerging and developing economies

China

12Source: IMF WEO (September 2011)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Implicaciones para América LatinaImplicaciones para América Latina

13

Crecimiento reciente y pronósticos para el 2012 Crecimiento reciente y pronósticos para el 2012

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Jamaica

El Salvador

Trin. &

Tob.

Guatem

ala

Nicaragua

Mexico

Brazil

LAC

Argentina

Costa Rica

Bolivia

Ecuador

Paraguay

Venezuela

Chile

Uruguay

Colombia

Dom. Rep.

Peru

Panam

a

Actual Growth and Growth Forecast: LAC Countries

Weighted Averages for LAC

2011e

2012f

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

High Income

South Africa

Europe & Central

Latin America &

East Asian Tigers

India China

GDP per capita PPP

% Growth Rate

Real GDP Growth Forecasts Around the World

Annual Real GDP Growth Rate, Weighted Averages

14

Jamaica

El Salvador

Trin. &

Tob.

Guatem

ala

Nicaragua

Mexico

Brazil

LAC

Argentina

Costa Rica

Bolivia

Ecuador

Paraguay

Venezuela

Chile

Uruguay

Colombia

Dom. Rep.

Peru

Panam

a

Income Africa Central Asia

America & Caribbean

Tigers

2010 2011 2012 GDP per capita PPP (2010)

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

LAC 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts Evolution In %

LAC (weighted average)

Guatemala

Sources: Consensus Forecast (Feb- 2012), and IMF WEO (September 2011)

Desigual desempeño económico en la regiónDesigual desempeño económico en la región

La heterogeneidad ha ido mutando en la última décadaLa heterogeneidad ha ido mutando en la última década

80

100

120

140

160

180

Low-Growth Countries

GDP Index 2002=100

Actual

2003-2007 Trend

80

100

120

140

160

180

Intermediate-Growth Countries

GDP Index 2002=100

Actual

2003-2007 Trend

15Sources: Potential GPD is computed as the average rate of growth between 2007 and 2003. Simple averages are used to construct the composite. The categorization of each group is asfollow: Slow-growth are those countries that showed a less than 3.5% in their 2011-2008 GDP real growth rate; Medium-growth are those between 3.5% and 10%: High-growth arethose with 10% or more. WEO (September– 2011).

80

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

80

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

80

100

120

140

160

180

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

High-Growth Countries

GDP Index 2002=100

Actual

2003-2007 Trend

80

100

120

140

160

180

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Guatemala

GDP Index 2002=100

Actual

2003-2007 Trend

Desigual desempeño económicoDesigual desempeño económico

Importa menos la ubicación que la conexiónImporta menos la ubicación que la conexión

(Geometric)

Mean growth

2003-2007

Simple Average

(Geometric)

Mean growth

2007-2009

Simple Average

(Geometric)

Mean growth

2009-2012

Simple Average

Min.

2009-2012

Max.

2009-2012

Low growth (13) 4.9% -1.6% 1.3% -0.1% 4.3%

Medium growth (7) 4.5% 1.7% 3.4% 2.6% 4.4%

Guatemala 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%

16Sources: World Bank’s World Development Indicators – WDI (December 2010), IMF's World Economic Outlook – WEO (April 2011), and Consensus Forecasts (June 2011) –Latest available forecasts. Potential GDP is calculated computing the annual average real growth rate for the 2002-2007 to 2007 GDP. Weighted averages (2007 Nominal GDP inUSD Billions).

Low growth: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, El Salvador, Grenada, Jamaica, Mexico,St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela

Intermediate growth: Belize, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua

High growth: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Panama,Paraguay, Peru, Suriname and Uruguay

Guatemala 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%

High growth (12) 5.9% 4.5% 6.0% 4.5% 8.7%

LAC (all countries) 4.8% 1.1% 3.5% -0.1% 8.7%

La creciente pero desigual conexión con China…La creciente pero desigual conexión con China…

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Output Co-Movement Between LAC and China20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP Growth

Brazil ChileColombia MexicoPeru ArgentinaPanama Dom. Rep.

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% of Total Exports

Main Trade Partners by Exports2009

17

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Belize

Baham

asSt.Vinc.&…

Grenada

El Salvador

Nicaragua

Guatem

ala

Panam

aBarbados

Paraguay

Dominica

Trin.&Tob.

Honduras

Surinam

eGuyana

Jamaica

Dom. R

ep.

Mexico

Colombia

Bolivia

Ecuador

Argentina

Venezuela

Uruguay

Costa Rica

Brazil

Peru

Chile

% of Total Exports

World

UE15

LAC

USA

CHN

… está fuertemente mediatizada por … está fuertemente mediatizada por commoditiescommodities

Costa Rica

Panama

Jamaica

Brazil

Guatemala

Mexico

Uruguay

Colombia

LAC

Argentina

Ecuador

Chile

Peru

Cumulative Change in Terms of TradeMonthly Data, Avg. 2002Q1 vs. Avg. 2011Q1

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Oil WTI, Current US$

Wheat, Copper and Soybean,

Index 01-Jan-05=100

Commodity Prices

Oil WTI in Current US$, Wheat, Copper and Soybean: Index base Jan-05=100

18

-20% 10% 40% 70% 100% 130%

Honduras

3050

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Feb-92

Dec-92

Oct-93

Aug-94

Jun-95

Apr-96

Feb-97

Dec-97

Oct-98

Aug-99

Jun-00

Apr-01

Feb-02

Dec-02

Oct-03

Aug-04

Jun-05

Apr-06

Feb-07

Dec-07

Oct-08

Aug-09

Jun-10

Apr-11

Feb-12

Terms of TradePx/Pm Index 2005 = 100

LAC 6 Average

Guatemala

En el corto plazo el foco está en la vulnerabilidadEn el corto plazo el foco está en la vulnerabilidad

El sistema inmunológico macro de LAC ha mejoradoEl sistema inmunológico macro de LAC ha mejorado

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8

8.2

8.4

8.6

06

06

06 06 07

07

07 07 08

08

08 08 09

09

09 09 10

10

10 10 11

11

11 11 12

Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in Guatemala

Nominal Exchange Rate

Interest Rate

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in Guatemala

Series1 Series2

19

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Interest Rates in LACMonetary Policy Rates Inflation-Targeting LAC Countries

Fed Funds Target

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Peru

Mexico

Guatemala

Jan-97

Jun-97

Nov-97

Apr-98

Sep-98

Feb-99

Jul-99

Dec-99

May-00

Oct-00

Mar-01

Aug-01

Jan-02

Jun-02

Nov-02

Apr-03

Sep-03

Feb-04

Jul-04

Dec-04

May-05

Oct-05

Mar-06

Aug-06

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Colombia Brazil Chile Mexico Peru Guatemala

Exchange Rate Flexibility

Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff Index

1998

2010

Notes: The Exchange Rate Flexibility Index is between 1 (totally rigid exchange rate regime) and 13 (freely floating exchange regime.

El foco de largo plazo es crecimiento con equidadEl foco de largo plazo es crecimiento con equidad

¿¿Cómo salir de los 100 años de soledad en el crecimiento?Cómo salir de los 100 años de soledad en el crecimiento?

60%

70%

80%

90%

GDP Per Capita of Relative to the US

Selected Regions, Weighted Averages WashingtonDissensus

Gold Standard Period

Interwar Period Import Substitution WashingtonConsensus

LostDecade

Avg 61-70 Avg 71-80 Avg 81-90 Avg 91-00 Avg 01-08 Avg 61-08

LAC 7 1.9% 0.4% -2.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3%

Non - LAC 7 1.1% 0.5% -2.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2%

Costa Rica 2.2% -1.3% -2.6% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%

Average TFP growth per year

20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

LAC EAP: High Income Guatemala

Costa Rica 2.2% -1.3% -2.6% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%

Dominican Republic 0.1% 0.2% -0.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.7%

El Salvador 0.9% -1.6% -1.9% 0.5% 0.0% -0.4%

Guatemala 2.1% 1.2% -1.7% 0.4% -0.6% 0.3%

Honduras 0.3% 1.0% -1.3% -2.7% 1.2% -0.3%

Nicaragua 2.2% -1.4% -3.8% -1.4% -1.3% -1.1%

Trinidad &Tobago 3.0% -1.3% -3.0% 3.3% 8.1% 2.0%

EAP 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.2%

China -0.5% 0.9% 1.6% 3.4% 6.2% 2.3%

United States 0.9% -0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6%

Japan 6.7% 1.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.9% 1.9%

Guatemala está entre los países de “resago estable”Guatemala está entre los países de “resago estable”

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Diverging

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Non-Converging

21Notes: Maddison (2007-2009) was used from 1900 to 2006 and Real Per Capita GDP growth from WDI was used to calculate the levels from 2006 to 2010. Source: LCRCEStaff calculations based on Maddison (2007, 2009) and WDI.

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Venezuela Argentina Uruguay

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Colombia Guatemala El Salvador Bolivia Paraguay

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Fluctuating

Mexico Brazil

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Semi-Converging

Chile Dominican Republic

Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazoLas cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo

Ahorro e inversión bajasAhorro e inversión bajas

25%

30%

35%

Gross Domestic SavingsDecade Average

LAC-7

EAP

Guatemala

25%

30%

35%

40%

Investment Decade Average

LAC-7

EAP

Guatemala

22Notes: In Panel A, EAP includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. In Panel B, EAP includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Both in Panel A and B, LAC-7 includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Sources: WDI, Penn World Tables, and The International Energy Agency (IEA).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's

% of GDP

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's

% of GDP

En GuatemalaEn Guatemala

Insuficientes recursos para bienes públicosInsuficientes recursos para bienes públicos

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Tax revenues by type of taxes

% GDPDirect tax revenues

Indirect tax revenues

Social contributions

Other taxes

23

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

1990

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

GuatemalaVenezuela Honduras Chile USA Argentina Brasil OECD Suecia


Brechas de infraestructuraBrechas de infraestructura

1.0

1.2

1.4

Electricity Installed CapacityIn thousands of KW per 1000 people, simple averages

EAP

LAC7 + URY

Guatemala

0.0060

0.0070

0.0080

0.0090

Road DensityIn thousands of KM per 1000 people, simple average

LAC7 + URYGuatemala (available data)

24

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0.0000

0.0010

0.0020

0.0030

0.0040

0.0050

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


Brechas institucionalesBrechas institucionales

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Control of Corruption

Guatemala

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Rule of Law

Guatemala

25Source: D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi 2003: G

-2

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


Regulatory Quality

Guatemala

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


Government Effectiveness

Guatemala


Brechas en capital humanoBrechas en capital humano

9.7

29.3

20.3

East Asian Tigers2010

7.9

40.3

37.5

14.2

LAC-72010

46.7

40.6

9.92.8

Guatemala1990

No School

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

26Source: Author’s calculation based on Household datasets and Barro-Lee (2010)

19.3

40.9

29.7

10

East Asian Tigers1990

16.4

51

23.1

9.5

LAC-71990

40.7

46.7

40.6

9.92.8

Guatemala1990

No School

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

GraciasGracias

27

GraciasGracias

Tipo de cambio efectivo: nominal y realTipo de cambio efectivo: nominal y real

120

130

140

150

160

Nominal Effective Exchange RatesIndex Jan-2006 = 100

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Guatemala130

140

150

160

Real Effective Exchange RatesIndex Jan-06=100

Brazil Chile

Colombia Mexico

Peru Guatemala

28

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Source: World Bank and IFS.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Documents

El Futuro Económico de América Latina: ¿Hecho en China?20interes/economico/...20 30 40 50 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12