44
Bo B1 B2 1 45.3 100.0 330.0 2 47.3 91.0 330.0 3 46.9 93.0 375.0 4 46.7 91.0 330.0 5 50.1 96.0 375.0 6 52.2 83.0 375.0 7 47.2 93.5 340.0 8 46 98.0 400.0 9 44 98.0 340.0 10 47.5 98.0 400.0 11 44.9 98.0 340.0 12 47.3 98.0 400.0 13 44.5 93.5 340.0 14 44.5 93.5 320.0 15 42.5 96.0 350.0 16 45.8 90.0 310.0 17 42.8 94.0 310.0 18 43.2 96.0 350.0 19 45.3 92.0 330.0 20 47.7 91.0 330.0 921.7 1,883.5 6,975.0 Promedio 46.085 PASO 1 N S x1 |A| S x1 S x1^2 S x2 S x1*x2 20.0 1,883.5 1,883.5 177,675.8 6,975.0 657,430.0 + 8,700,337,288,125.0 8,636,929,099,875.0 - 8,644,036,284,843.8 8,644,284,098,000.0 |A| 87,897,438 A11 (-1)^2 177,675.8 657,430.0

Ejercicio 3 Metodos Cuantitativos

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

muy bueno

Citation preview

Ejercicio 3_ Lanchas Ski AcuatiNBoB1B2X1^2X2^2x1*x2y^1SCRSCESCT145.3100.0330.010,000.00108,90033,00042.85810.4125.9620.616247.391.0330.08,281.00108,90030,03046.3640.0780.8751.476346.993.0375.08,649.00140,62534,87547.8833.2340.9670.664446.791.0330.08,281.00108,90030,03046.3640.0780.1130.378550.196.0375.09,216.00140,62536,00046.7140.39611.46216.120652.283.0375.06,889.00140,62531,12551.77932.4230.17737.393747.293.5340.08,742.25115,60031,79045.9010.0341.6871.24384698.0400.09,604.00160,00039,20047.2121.2701.4690.00794498.0340.09,604.00115,60033,32044.1483.7520.0224.3471047.598.0400.09,604.00160,00039,20047.2121.2700.0832.0021144.998.0340.09,604.00115,60033,32044.1483.7520.5651.4041247.398.0400.09,604.00160,00039,20047.2121.2700.0081.4761344.593.5340.08,742.25115,60031,79045.9010.0341.9632.5121444.593.5320.08,742.25102,40029,92044.8801.4520.1442.5121542.596.0350.09,216.00122,50033,60045.4380.4198.63112.8521645.890.0310.08,100.0096,10027,90045.7330.1240.0050.0811742.894.0310.08,836.0096,10029,14044.1743.6501.88910.7911843.296.0350.09,216.00122,50033,60045.4380.4195.0088.3231945.392.0330.08,464.00108,90030,36045.9750.0120.4550.6162047.791.0330.08,281.00108,90030,03046.3640.0781.7842.608921.71,883.56,975.0177,675.752,448,375657,430921.70064.15743.269107.426Promedio46.085PASO 1NS x1S x2NS x1|A|S x1S x1^2S x1*x2S x1S x1^2S x2S x1*x2S x2^2S x2S x1*x220.01,883.56,975.0020.01,883.51,883.5177,675.8657,430.001,883.5177,675.86,975.0657,430.02,448,375.06,975.0657,430.0+8,700,337,288,125.08,636,929,099,875.08,636,929,099,875.0-8,644,036,284,843.88,644,284,098,000.08,685,787,207,593.8|A|87,897,438A11(-1)^2177,675.8657,430.0=1.0*435,016,864,406.25432,214,204,900.002,802,659,506.25657,430.02,448,375.0A12(-1)^31,883.5657,430.00=-1.04,611,514,312.504,585,574,250.00(25,940,062.50)6,975.02,448,375.00A13(-1)^41,883.5177,675.81.01,238,269,405.001,239,288,356.25(1,018,951.25)6,975.0657,430.0A21(-1)^31,883.56,975.0-1.04,611,514,312.504,585,574,250.00(25,940,062.50)657,430.02,448,375.0A22(-1)^420.06,975.001.048,967,500.0048,650,625.00316,875.006,975.02,448,375.00A23(-1)^520.01,883.5-1.013,148,600.0013,137,412.50(11,187.50)6,975.0657,430.0A31(-1)^41,883.56,975.01.01,238,269,405.001,239,288,356.25(1,018,951.25)177,675.8657,430.0A32(-1)^520.06,975.00-1.013,148,600.0013,137,412.50(11,187.50)1,883.5657,430.00A33(-1)^620.01,883.51.03,553,515.003,547,572.255,942.751,883.5177,675.82,802,659,506.3(25,940,062.50)(1,018,951.25)-25,940,062.5316,875.00(11,187.50)-1,018,951.3(11,187.50)5,942.75Adj t1|A|A112,802,659,506.331.8855656A23(11,187.50)-0.000127387,897,437.587,897,438A12-25,940,062.5-0.2951174A31-1,018,951.3-0.011592587,897,437.587,897,438A13-1,018,951.3-0.0115925A32(11,187.50)-0.000127387,897,437.587,897,438A21-25,940,062.5-0.2951174A335,942.750.000067687,897,437.587,897,438A22316,875.00.003605187,897,437.5A1131.88557921.729,388.926-272.010-10.6848A12-0.2951286713.9-25,590.780312.608-11.0369A13-0.01159322034-3,733.180-40.98821.7727A21-0.2951265.0-0.3900.0511A220.00361VELMAXMANGAHPA23-0.00013A31-0.01159A32-0.00013A330.000071.0100.0330.045.345.34,530.014,949.01.091.0330.047.347.34,304.315,609.01.093.0375.046.946.94,361.717,587.51.091.0330.046.746.74,249.715,411.01.096.0375.050.150.14,809.618,787.51.083.0375.052.252.24,332.619,575.01.093.5340.047.247.24,413.216,048.01.098.0400.04646.04,508.018,400.01.098.0340.04444.04,312.014,960.01.098.0400.047.547.54,655.019,000.01.098.0340.044.944.94,400.215,266.01.098.0400.047.347.34,635.418,920.01.093.5340.044.544.54,160.815,130.01.093.5320.044.544.54,160.814,240.01.096.0350.042.542.54,080.014,875.01.090.0310.045.845.84,122.014,198.01.094.0310.042.842.84,023.213,268.01.096.0350.043.243.24,147.215,120.01.092.0330.045.345.34,167.614,949.01.091.0330.047.747.74,340.715,741.0921.786,713.9322,034.0VELMAXHPMANGA65.00.0511-0.390CALCULO ^y65.00.0511HP-0.390Manga^y165.00.0511330.0-0.390100.042.9265.00.0511330.0-0.39091.046.4365.00.0511375.0-0.39093.047.9465.00.0511330.0-0.39091.046.4565.00.0511375.0-0.39096.046.7665.00.0511375.0-0.39083.051.8765.00.0511340.0-0.39093.545.9865.00.0511400.0-0.39098.047.2965.00.0511340.0-0.39098.044.11065.00.0511400.0-0.39098.047.21165.00.0511340.0-0.39098.044.11265.00.0511400.0-0.39098.047.21365.00.0511340.0-0.39093.545.91465.00.0511320.0-0.39093.544.91565.00.0511350.0-0.39096.045.41665.00.0511310.0-0.39090.045.71765.00.0511310.0-0.39094.044.21865.00.0511350.0-0.39096.045.41965.00.0511330.0-0.39092.046.02065.00.0511330.0-0.39091.046.4921.7CALCULO SCR64.16^yPromedio142.946.110.412246.446.10.078347.946.13.234446.446.10.078546.746.10.396651.846.132.423745.946.10.034847.246.11.270944.146.13.7521047.246.11.2701144.146.13.7521247.246.11.2701345.946.10.0341444.946.11.4521545.446.10.4191645.746.10.1241744.246.13.6501845.446.10.4191946.046.10.0122046.446.10.078SCR64.157CALCULO SCE43.27Y^y145.342.95.962247.346.40.875346.947.90.967446.746.40.113550.146.711.462652.251.80.177747.245.91.687846.047.21.469944.044.10.0221047.547.20.0831144.944.10.5651247.347.20.0081344.545.91.9631444.544.90.1441542.545.48.6311645.845.70.0051742.844.21.8891843.245.45.0081945.346.00.4552047.746.41.784SCE43.269CALCULO SCT107.426YPromedio145.346.10.616247.346.11.476346.946.10.664446.746.10.378550.146.116.120652.246.137.393747.246.11.243846.046.10.007944.046.14.3471047.546.12.0021144.946.11.4041247.346.11.4761344.546.12.5121444.546.12.5121542.546.112.8521645.846.10.0811742.846.110.7911843.246.18.3231945.346.10.6162047.746.12.608SCT107.43107.43Analisis de VarianzaGLSCMCFCRegresion2.064.15732.07812.60A1131.88557Error17.043.2692.545A12-0.29512Total19.0107.426A13-0.01159A21-0.29512MCRSCR64.232.078A220.00361K2.0A23-0.00013A31-0.01159MCESCE43.32.545A32-0.00013n-k-117.0A330.00007FMCR32.07812.60MCE2.545Varianza de los ResiduosS^2SCR43.2692.545n-k-117.000S1.595Var (B^0)2.531.885681.155938S^B09.009Var (B^1)2.50.003610.009176S^B10.096Var (B^2)2.50.000070.000172S^B20.013R^2SCR64.20.597220169904296SCT107.4R^2 a21-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)]0.550Ecuacion de Regresion EstimadaA)VELMAXHPMANGA65.00.0511-0.390b)Svfara SV 609 manga 85 Pilgadas y Motor de 330 Caballos de FuerzaEstimar la Velocidad Maxima de la Svfara SV609VEL. MAX650.0511330.00-0.3908548.702

MEdios Radios y PeriodicosNBoB1B2X1^2X2^2x1*x2y^1SCRSCESCT19730.040.00.01,6000.0828.242157525.48720955.00763572.746211190.040.00.01,6000.0828.242157525.48784540.47211264.928387525.025.0625.00625625903.329103559.715802.555122595.473462525.025.0625.00625625903.329103559.71577467.261360163.655591030.030.0900.009009001052.70929731.12520365.91799310.928697130.030.0900.009009001052.70929731.1256676.39464585.291793135.035.01,225.001,2251,2251202.089531.18173489.24686516.2008117735.035.01,225.001,2251,2251202.089531.181629.4582317.110988240.025.01,600.006251,0001099.54015774.54147323.488117742.5641098240.025.01,600.006251,0001099.54015774.54113815.56359115.29111162845.045.02,025.002,0252,0251500.84976017.23216167.481162299.11012157745.045.02,025.002,0252,0251500.84976017.2325799.037123808.01913104450.00.02,500.000.00.0810.464171952.76954538.83832810.3821491450.00.02,500.000.00.0810.464171952.76910719.60396805.83715132955.025.03,025.006251,3751295.7504986.2631105.57310787.65516133055.025.03,025.006251,3751295.7504986.2631173.07410996.38217140560.030.03,600.009001,8001445.13048397.0391610.38832350.92818143660.030.03,600.009001,8001445.13048397.03983.35044463.47319152165.035.04,225.001,2252,2751594.509136436.4625403.63687535.29120174165.035.04,225.001,2252,2751594.509136436.46221459.487266115.29121186670.040.04,900.001,6002,80026953.0002028032.690479759.9012507792.59122171770.040.04,900.001,6002,8000.0000.0000.0000.00026953950.0660.049,250.022,700.028,050.050,418.23,517,856.3943,885.74,362,949.1Promedio1,225.136PASO 1NS x1S x2NS x1|A|S x1S x1^2S x1*x2S x1S x1^2S x2S x1*x2S x2^2S x2S x1*x222.0950.0660.0022.0950.0950.049,250.028,050.00950.049,250.0660.028,050.022,700.0660.028,050.0+24,595,450,000.017,587,350,000.017,587,350,000.0-21,453,300,000.017,309,655,000.020,486,750,000.0|A|520,445,000A11(-1)^249,250.028,050.0=1.0*1,117,975,000.00786,802,500.00331,172,500.0028,050.022,700.0A12(-1)^3950.028,050.00=-1.021,565,000.0018,513,000.00(3,052,000.00)660.022,700.00A13(-1)^4950.049,250.01.026,647,500.0032,505,000.00(5,857,500.00)660.028,050.0A21(-1)^3950.0660.0-1.021,565,000.0018,513,000.00(3,052,000.00)28,050.022,700.0A22(-1)^422.0660.001.0499,400.00435,600.0063,800.00660.022,700.00A23(-1)^522.0950.0-1.0617,100.00627,000.009,900.00660.028,050.0A31(-1)^4950.0660.01.026,647,500.0032,505,000.00(5,857,500.00)49,250.028,050.0A32(-1)^522.0660.00-1.0617,100.00627,000.009,900.00950.028,050.00A33(-1)^622.0950.01.01,083,500.00902,500.00181,000.00950.049,250.0331,172,500.0(3,052,000.00)(5,857,500.00)-3,052,000.063,800.009,900.00-5,857,500.09,900.00181,000.00Adj t1|A|A11331,172,500.00.6363256A239,900.000.0000190520,445,000.0520,445,000A12-3,052,000.0-0.0058642A31-5,857,500.0-0.0112548520,445,000.0520,445,000A13-5,857,500.0-0.0112548A329,900.000.0000190520,445,000.0520,445,000A21-3,052,000.0-0.0058642A33181,000.000.0003478520,445,000.0520,445,000A2263,800.00.0001226520,445,000.0A110.6363326,953.017,150.885-158.058-303.3504A12-0.005861,263,940.0-7,412.013154.94324.0429A13-0.01125851,410.0-9,582.44216.196296.1028A21-0.00586156.413.116.8A220.00012VENTASRADIOSPERIODICOSA230.00002A31-0.01125A320.00002A330.000351.00.040.0973973.00.038,920.01.00.040.011191,119.00.044,760.01.025.025.0875875.021,875.021,875.01.025.025.0625625.015,625.015,625.01.030.030.0910910.027,300.027,300.01.030.030.0971971.029,130.029,130.01.035.035.0931931.032,585.032,585.01.035.035.011771,177.041,195.041,195.01.040.025.0882882.035,280.022,050.01.040.025.0982982.039,280.024,550.01.045.045.016281,628.073,260.073,260.01.045.045.015771,577.070,965.070,965.01.050.00.010441,044.052,200.00.01.050.00.0914914.045,700.00.01.055.025.013291,329.073,095.033,225.01.055.025.013301,330.073,150.033,250.01.060.030.014051,405.084,300.042,150.01.060.030.014361,436.086,160.043,080.01.065.035.015211,521.098,865.053,235.01.065.035.017411,741.0113,165.060,935.01.070.040.018661,866.0130,620.074,640.01.070.040.017171,717.0120,190.068,680.026,953.01,263,940.0851,410.0VENTASRADIOSPERIODICOS156.413.116.8CALCULO ^y156.413.080716.795^y1156.413.08070.016.79540.0828.22156.413.08070.016.79540.0828.23156.413.080725.016.79525.0903.34156.413.080725.016.79525.0903.35156.413.080730.016.79530.01,052.76156.413.080730.016.79530.01,052.77156.413.080735.016.79535.01,202.18156.413.080735.016.79535.01,202.19156.413.080740.016.79525.01,099.510156.413.080740.016.79525.01,099.511156.413.080745.016.79545.01,500.812156.413.080745.016.79545.01,500.813156.413.080750.016.7950.0810.514156.413.080750.016.7950.0810.515156.413.080755.016.79525.01,295.716156.413.080755.016.79525.01,295.717156.413.080760.016.79530.01,445.118156.413.080760.016.79530.01,445.119156.413.080765.016.79535.01,594.520156.413.080765.016.79535.01,594.521156.413.080770.016.79540.01,743.922156.413.080770.016.79540.01,743.926,953.0CALCULO SCR2,028,032.69^yPromedio1828.241,225.1157,525.4872828.241,225.1157,525.4873903.331,225.1103,559.7154903.331,225.1103,559.71551052.711,225.129,731.12561052.711,225.129,731.12571202.091,225.1531.18181202.091,225.1531.18191099.541,225.115,774.541101099.541,225.115,774.541111500.851,225.176,017.232121500.851,225.176,017.23213810.461,225.1171,952.76914810.461,225.1171,952.769151295.751,225.14,986.263161295.751,225.14,986.263171445.131,225.148,397.039181445.131,225.148,397.039191594.511,225.1136,436.462201594.511,225.1136,436.462211743.891,225.1269,104.531221743.891,225.1269,104.531SCR2,028,033CALCULO SCE479,759.90Y^y1973.0828.2420,955.00721,119.0828.2484,540.4723875.0903.33802.5554625.0903.3377,467.2615910.01,052.7120,365.9176971.01,052.716,676.3947931.01,202.0973,489.24681,177.01,202.09629.4589882.01,099.5447,323.48810982.01,099.5413,815.563111,628.01,500.8516,167.481121,577.01,500.855,799.037131,044.0810.4654,538.83814914.0810.4610,719.603151,329.01,295.751,105.573161,330.01,295.751,173.074171,405.01,445.131,610.388181,436.01,445.1383.350191,521.01,594.515,403.636201,741.01,594.5121,459.487211,866.01,743.8914,911.041221,717.01,743.89723.030SCE479,760CALCULO SCT2,507,792.591YPromedio1973.01,225.163,572.74621,119.01,225.111,264.9283875.01,225.1122,595.4734625.01,225.1360,163.6555910.01,225.199,310.9286971.01,225.164,585.2917931.01,225.186,516.20081,177.01,225.12,317.1109882.01,225.1117,742.56410982.01,225.159,115.291111,628.01,225.1162,299.110121,577.01,225.1123,808.019131,044.01,225.132,810.38214914.01,225.196,805.837151,329.01,225.110,787.655161,330.01,225.110,996.382171,405.01,225.132,350.928181,436.01,225.144,463.473191,521.01,225.187,535.291201,741.01,225.1266,115.291211,866.01,225.1410,706.200221,717.01,225.1241,929.837SCT2,507,7932,507,792.59Analisis de VarianzaGLSCMCFCRegresion2.02,028,0331,014,01640.16A110.63633Error19.0479,76025,251A12-0.00586Total21.02,507,793A13-0.01125A21-0.00586MCRSCR2,028,0331,014,016A220.00012K2.0A230.00002A31-0.01125MCESCE479,76025,251A320.00002n-k-119.0A330.00035FMCR1,014,016.34540.16MCE25,251Varianza de los ResiduosS^2SCR479,759.90125,251n-k-119S158.904Var (B^0)25,2510.636316,067.554126S^B0126.758Var (B^1)25,2510.000123.095396S^B11.759Var (B^2)25,2510.000358.781609S^B22.963R^2SCR2,028,032.70.80980.9SCT2,507,792.6R^2 a21-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)]0.78978.9Ecuacion de RegresionA)VENTASRADIOSPERIODICOS156.413.116.8b)Interprete el significado de las pendientes B1 y B2 en este problemaB11.759B22.963c)Coeficiente el significado del coeficiente de Regresion B0B0126.8D)Elabore un pronostico de ventas para una ciudad en la que la publicidad en radio sumo US$ 20.000 y la Publicidad en periodicos tambien susmo US$ 20.000Anuncios en Radios [MUS$)Anuncios en Periodicos [MUS$)20.020.00.040.00156.413.116.8753.95828.24E)Elabore una estimacion del Intervalo de Confianza del 95% para la media de las ventas correspondientes a las ciudades en las que la publicidad en radio alcanzo US$ 20.000 y la publicidad en periodicos fue de US$ 20.000F)Elabore una estimacion del Intervalo de Confianza del 95% para la media de las ventas en una ciudad donde la publicidad en radio alcanzo US$ 20.000 y la publicidad en periodicos fue de US$ 20.000G)Calcule el coeficiente de Determinacion AjustadoR^2 a21-[(1-R^2)(n-1/n-k-1)]0.7978.9H)Realice el constraste conjunto de los estimadoresI)Realice el constraste individual de los estimadores