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1EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
Matthias Koller
Ines Flügel
Julia Dose
Federal Environmental Agency (UBA)
Section I 1.1 Fundamental Aspects and Environmental Strategies
Quality assurance for forward looking assessment studies in the Federal Environment Agency-
on the way to good practice guidelines
2EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
2) Forward
looking studies at the
the UBA
3) Problems and
Challenges
4) Approaches for quality
improvement and assurance
1) About the UBA
Agenda
3EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
The Federal Environment Agency (UBA) ...
4EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
• 1974: Established by law as an independent Federal authority
• 1986 assigned to Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety
• Largest scientific Environmental Agency on Federal level
• 1.126 Employees in 1.000 positions
• 108 mio. Euro budget (incl. 20 mio. € research funds)
• 7 Locations and 22 air quality measuring stations
Some facts about the UBA
5EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
• Assessing the state of the environment
• Advising in environmental questions (esp. support of the Federal
Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety)
• Collecting Data and Providing environmental information
• Executing Statutory Provisions/Law Enforcement
• Educating the General Public
Tasks of the UBA
6EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
strategic topics of the UBA
climate protection
sustainable development in Germany, EU, worldwide
demand / consumption as a cause for pressure on human health and natural resources
prevention of environment related
health risks
spatial and cross-media protection of
natural livelihood
transport as a cause for pressure on human health
and natural resources
production of and trade with goods and services as a cause for pressure on natural resources
7EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
• Around 10 scenario studies ongoing and about 20 models in use –> lack of overview
• A wide range of topics is covered (but which ones exactly)
• Diverse methods of scenario studies (always the appropriate one?)
• Varying types of models (transparency, accuracy, …)
• Problem of divergent basic assumptions (lack of consistency)
• Data collection, storage and updating (and avoidance of redundant efforts)
• Using consistent data sources
Challenges concerning the foward looking assessments at the UBA
8EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
• (Inventory) analysis of forward looking assessment tools (scenario
studies, prognostic models …)
• „SWOT“ - Analysis
• Workshop with external experts
• Guidelines for good practice
• Case study
First steps towards a better practice
9EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
IKARUS
RAUMIS/GAS-EM
WI/DLR
TREMOD-4
REMO/WETTREG
Energy reference scenario
Long term scenarios
Policy scenarios III
Policy scenarios IV
Reference scenarioEfficiency scenarioSustainability scenario
Expansion of renewable energies - scenario
Reference scenario
BASIS IBASIS IINatureConservationPlus INatureConservationPlus II
NAWARO-AREAS BAU I scenarioBAU II scenario
Models
BASiS Reference scenarioSustainability scenario
Scenarios of emissions from agriculture
Climate scenarios
Scenario studies Scenarios
A1BA1B2
Model basic scenario
Reductions scenario IIReductions scenario I
Measures-scenario
Additional-measures-scenario
FEA-energy reference scenarioo
Basic scenarioScenario 1
IssuesReference scenario ofEnquete-commission
PROGNOS/EWI
Inventory Analysis of the Scenarios and Modells at the UBA
10EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
GH
G/c
lima
te
Air
qua
lity/
-
Air
po
llutio
n
Wa
ter
stre
ss
Wa
ter
qu
ality
Eco
logy
/ B
iod
ive
rsity
So
il q
ualit
y
Demographic development +++ +++ +++ +++ +++ ++Sociocultural development +++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++Macroeconomic development +++ ++ ++ + ++ +Technological development +++ +++ +++ +++ ++ +++
Sectoral developmentEnergy +++ +++ ++ ++ ++ ++Transport +++ +++ + + ++ +Agriculture ++ ++ ++ +++ +++ +++Forestry ++ + ++ ++ +++ +++households and services ++ ++ +++ ++ ++ +Waste and material flows ++ ++ + +++ ++ +++
+++ strong ++ medium + weak
Environmental Areas covered by UBA scenario studies
11EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
Links of models
VSDRAUMIS/GAS-EM LOTOS-EUROS IDEM BERN
RAINS
Immission of air componentsin ecosystems
Soil chemical status
Changes in biodiversity
AIR SOIL
Emissionsprognoses
Emissions from agriculture
Areas of concentrationof air components
12EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
80
80,5
81
81,5
82
82,5
83
83,5
84
84,5
85
2000 2010 2020
po
pu
lati
on
[m
io]
energy referencescenario
policy scenarios III
long term scenarios
expansion of renew ableenergies scenario
Consistency of basic assumptions (1)
13EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
energy source prices [€/GJ]
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020
cru
de
oil
energy referencescenario
policy scenarios III
long term scenarios
expansion of renew ableenergies scenario
Consistency of basic assumptions (2)
14EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
G
R
YY N N
1. Q ualita tive2. Q uantitative3. Hybrid
Type
OrientationAnticipatory Exploratory
2
3
1
2
3
1
baseline scenariopolicy scenario
Furtherdifferentiations
7
1. Energy reference scenario2. Policy scenarios III3. Policy scenarios IV4. Long term scenarios5. Expansion of renewable energies scenario6. NAWARO-AREAS7. BASiS8. Climate scenarios9. Scenarios of emissions from agriculture
Classification of UBA scenario studies
15EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
G
R
JJ N N
1. Q ualita tive2. Q uantitative3. hybrid
Type
OrientationAnticipatory Exploratory
2
3
1
2
3
1
baseline scenariopolicy scenario
Furtherdifferentiations
1. Meadows: Limits to Growth
2. GEO-3 Scenarios (RIVM/UNEP,2003)
3. Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice (SEI/GSG,)
4. Bending the curve: Toward Global Sustainability (SEI/GSG, 1998)
5. Scenarios Europe 2010: Five possible futures for Europe (European Commission Forward Studies Unit, 1999)
6. VISIONS (European Commission, 2001)
7. Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC, 2000)
8. Global Scenarios 2000-2050 (WBCSD, 1998)
…and of international scenario studies
16EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
• Scientificness requirements (reproducibility,
transparency,…)
• difficulty of integrating existing scenario studies
• credibility of scenario studies, esp. qualitative storylines
• appropriate use of qualitative and quantitative scenarios:
main drawbacks, combining information
Workshop on quality assurance within scenario studies – discussion points
17EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
Participants agree on:
– the necessity and usefulness of a continuous dialog about these
topics
– the needs for transparency in scenario assumptions (disclosure
and open documentation) and underlying models
– validation of / agreeing on underlying assumptions
– the importance of an appropriate participation of all relevant
stakeholders
Workshop on quality assurance within scenario studies - results (1)
18EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
Participants disagree on:
– The necessary minimum requirements for scenario studies
concerning standards of scientificness (esp. reproducibility)
– the optimum use of different types of scenarios approaches with
respect to different types of problems
– how to tackle the credibility problem (qualitative vs. quantitative
scenarios?)
Workshop on quality assurance within in scenario studies – results (2)
19EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
Objectivestechnical, organisational and communicative improvements of the
scenario work within the UBA
by good practice proposals with respect to the: …• awareness and creativity in the initial stage• used approaches and methods• participation of stakeholders• definition of design and scope of the scenario studies• use of existing knowledge and avoidance of redundant work • inclusion of surprises and unexpected developments• dealing with uncertainties
Guidelines for good practice
20EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
continued:
• integration of peer reviews• sensitivity analyses • consistency, plausibility, up-to-dateness and representativeness of
data and assumptions establishing and maintaining a common database
• uniform terminology => glossary• transparency• ex-post evaluation• continuation and update of scenario studies • documentation and communication• use for policy consultation• …….
Guidelines for good practice (2)
21EIONET-Workshop on Forward Looking Assessments,
19-20 May 2008, Copenhagen
Matthias [email protected]
Ines Flü[email protected]
Julia [email protected]
www.umweltbundesamt.de
Thank you for your attention!