Egypts trade 1990-2014 Developmental effects of the
liberalization of trade
Slide 2
Egypt recent history Egypt between 1980-1990 Cutting subsidies
for agriculture Egypt today Geo Political turmoil Economic position
Trade Indicators imports: consumer:31% intermediate :29% raw:21%
Export: Consumer:46% Intermediate:30% Raw:20% Exports: Various
countries-24%, US- 6.9%, Italy-7.9%, India-6.9%, Saudi
Arabia-6.23%, Turkey- 5.34% Imports: Others 20.9%, China-9.4%, U.S-
7.6%, Germany-6.7%
Slide 3
TRADE AGREEMENTS The Uruguay Round Egypt European Union (EU)
Partnership the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) Common Market
for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
Slide 4
Agreements results Quota cut Tariff reduction Increase in
trading size change in composition of exports and imports Change in
current account
Slide 5
Size of export and imports volatility Increase in both exports
and imports, but substantially more in imports
Slide 6
Current Account
Slide 7
Import and Export partners Export: EU, USA. Later: India, Saudi
Arabia, Russian Federation, Import: EU, USA, Later: China, India
Diversification in trading partners
Slide 8
Import and export composition Change in import composition
Slide 9
Import and export composition Change in export composition
Slide 10
Import and Export composition Percent of World Growth No real
trend, composition of exports might be the cause for the
volatility
Slide 11
Revealed comparative advantage Textile and vegetable show
comparative advantage
Slide 12
Tourism Tourists arrival rise up to the Egyptian revolution
Central component in the service sector
Slide 13
Energy Export and Import Export two main sources of energy;
petroleum and gas. 1990 - 2000 refined gas resources for local
consumption only. Oil supply dwindle During the last two decades
Egypt has gone through a drastic change in the composition of its
energy export, as oil export was reduced and gas export increased.
2000 gas fields discovered Since 1990 Egypt production of oil
decreased from exporting 400,000 barrels to just about 200,000 in
2000 and almost no net exports in 2008
(http://www.irangi.org/Statistics/Egypt.pdf). Since the early 2000s
gas exports from Egypt have been rapidly increasing, reaching 700
cubic feet of export in 2008 starting from no export at all in
2002. Since 2010 gas export is diminishing as well, dropping to
about 500 cubic feet in 2012. By 2012 Egypt has gone through a
negative process that might force it to start being a net importer
of energy (oil and gas).
Slide 14
Savings and investment GDP fixed capital formation (GDPFCF)
which explores the net investment of the government: the sum of
investment (GDP not consumed) in the private and public sectors of
the state. GDPFCF is extremely volatile with no real long trends
The yearly GDPFCF rates are fluctuating widely and only seem to get
more volatile with time.
Slide 15
Future improvements More openness and focus on labor intensive
industry in which Egypt have relative advantage investment
Improving education and widening structure for technological
improvement Equality (GINI Index) Corruption index2006-7-
2012-115