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Monitoring, RemoteSensing
SatelliteRemote-sensing
Warnings
Data IntegrationAssimilationIn-situ Monitoring
Weather Forecast
Disaster RiskReduction
Sustainable Future
Planning
Future
Projection
Climate Change Simulation
Socio-Economic
InformationLand HydrologicalModeling
Shinjiro KANAE, Prof., Department of Civil Engineering
Tokyo Institute of Technology
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Climate Change
Social and Land use change
Application:
Water resources assessment
Flood risk assessment
Drought risk
Modeling & Numerical Simulation
& Application
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Global Water Resources
Assessment
and
Virtual Water Trade
3
Shinjiro Kanae
Department of Civil Engineering
Tokyo Institute of Technology
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Water Crisis?
In August 1995,
Dr. Ismail Serageldin warned
(Director(?), Library of Alexandria,
and Vice President of World Bank in 1995,
and (is/was?) a board member of E-JUST.)
"if the wars of this century were fought over oil, the
wars of the next century will be fought over water.
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5
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6
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Aral Sea
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2013-06-11Yoshihiro Shibuo, Forskardagarna 8
1989
[MODIS, 2003]
2003
The Deminishing Sea
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The Aral Sea in 2009
2013-06-11Yoshihiro Shibuo, Forskardagarna 9
MODIS,
May 2009
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Yellow River
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:100-km
050
100150
200250
1972 1982 1992
1990sFlow Termination
1990s1970s
(6)
1980s
(7) 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
521 536 16 83 60 74 122 136 226
(km) 100300 100660 131 303 278 308 683 579 700
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Freshwater looks Crisis
However,water-withdrawal (water-use) is about
4000 km
3
/yearwhich is only 10% of water availability =
about 40,000 km3/year.
Why water scarcity?
Why water crisis?I want to have your opinion.
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A hint: Water CycleOki and Kanae, 2006, Science
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Characteristics of water availability
Upper Chao PhrayaRiver in Thailand
streamflow
Evaporation: 65,500
Runoff
45,500(incl. GW recharge)
Precipitation111,000
Amount (km3/yr)
Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.
Oil
coal
Stock (not renewable) Flow (renewable)
water
Renewable resources
Uneven spatial distribution Uneven temporal distribution
Oki and Kanae, 2006, Science Fekete et al., 2002, Global Biogeochem. Cy.14
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Characteristics of water use
Total withdrawal3,800
Agricultural 2,660
Domestic
380
Water withdrawalkm3/yr
Industrial
770
3200
2400
1600
800
1900 1950 2000 2025
W
aterWithdrawal
World
Industrial
Domestic
Agricultural
2nd crop
Main crop
Rice crop calendarin the Chao PhrayaDelta in Thailand
Uneven spatial distribution Uneven temporal distribution
Increase of water use [km3/yr]
Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.
Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.
streamflow
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw15
Population of the world
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Uneven Water Availability (Monthly)
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Uneven water availability
(= daily river discharge)
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Answer to
why water scarcity in the world?
[As I already introduced],
spatio-temporal variability of water-availability and
spatio-temporal variability of water-use.
(Not the total amount, but the mismatch/imbalance)
Water should be a cheap resource.
Water is a resource, if it is available at a place where it
is required, at a time when required, with a quality
better than required, with sufficient/vast amount, and
at a low enough cost.
Another point to mention
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How to assess the imbalance between
water-availability and water-use?
(= water resources assessment)
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Hydrological
Model
Population
GDPLanduseIrrigation area
Country-basedStatistics ofwater use
W/Q
Water Stress/Scarcity
Global river map
W: waterwithdawal
Q: riverdischarge
(water availability)
How to compute water scarcity/stress
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(A conventional)
water scarcity/stress index
Several indices have been proposed toquantify water scarcity (water stress).
Water scarcity index = Mean annual water withdrawal (water use)
Mean annual runoff (water availability)
High water
stressOki and Kanae, 2006, Science 21
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Characteristics of water use
Total withdrawal3,800
Agricultural 2,660
Domestic
380
Water withdrawalkm3/yr
Industrial
770
3200
2400
1600
800
1900 1950 2000 2025
W
aterWithdrawal
World
Industrial
Domestic
Agricultural
2nd crop
Main crop
Rice crop calendarin the Chao PhrayaDelta in Thailand
Uneven spatial distribution Uneven temporal distribution
Increase of water use [km3/yr]
Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.
Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.
streamflow
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw22
Population of the world
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World Food Production and Supply
1.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.5
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Raototh1
Vau
Population-Estimates
Agricultural Area
Irrigated Area
Area Harv: Cereals, Total
Yield: Cereals, Total
Production: Cereals, TotalCal/Cap/Day
irrigated land,which is 16%
of cropland,
produces 40%
of crops
(based on FAOSTAT & AQUASTAT)
Food, Population, and Water
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Future Projection of water withdrawal
(based on IPCC SRES scenarios)
26153188
3824
73186634
5283
101468891
6202
52345938
5717 6753
63235167
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Withdrawal(km
3/y)
A1bA2B1B2
(Shen et al.,Hydro. Sci. J., 2008)
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Virtual Water
Professor John Anthony Allan from Kings
College London and the School of Oriental and
African Studies has been named the 2008
Stockholm Water Prize Laureate. Professor Allan
pioneered the development of key concepts inthe understanding and communication of water
issues and how they are linked to agriculture,
climate change, economics and politics.
People do not only consume water when they
drink it or take a shower. In 1993, Professor Allan,71, strikingly demonstrated this by introducing
the virtual water concept, which measures how
water is embedded in the production and trade of
food and consumer products.
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The Question on VWT
Is Virtual Water Trade bad/guilty
or good/encouraged?
26
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Virtual Waterrefers to the water used
in the production of a good or service,
in the context of trade.(wikipedia)
28
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Required Water for Fast Food
Hamburger
SandwichBuckwheat
noodle
Pasta
(Udon)
Beef
Bowl
Regular
JY280
710kcal
2 regular
Small Fries
JY268
745kcal
With Egg
JY300
377kcal
Plain
JY290
341kcal
Teriyaki Burger
Regular Fries
JY430
911kcal
530L2020L
120L750L
Chicken
Burger
(M. Sato, 2003, Thesis, The Univ. of Tokyo.)
1890L
Which is the largest? Which is the smallest?
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49
389
89
14
22
13
25
33
Japanese Water for Irrigation59 billionTotal Import64 billion m3
Total Imported VW of Japanm3/
145
121
9424
20
140
3625 22
13
3
3
Maize
Bean
Wheat
Beef
Pork
Rice
Figure Unit = 0.1 billion
(m3/year)
Etc
U it R i t f W t
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3,600
Unit Water Requirement of Major Crops
(m3/t)
2,600 2,5002,000 1,900
(based on crop yield in Japan
FAOSTAT mean 1996-2000)
Unit Requirement of Water
--Crops--
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5,9004,100
3,200
20,600
4,500
3,000
14,400
0 5 ,0 0 0 1 0 ,0 0 0 1 5 ,0 0 0 2 0 ,0 0 0 2 5 ,0 0 0
(m3/t)
Unit Water Requirement
Meat
WholeBeef
WholePork
Pork
Beef
Poultry
Whole
PoultryEgg
Unit Water Requirement of Major Meat
(based on crop yield and the way of raising in Japan)
560 m3/t for milk
d l lif f
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Model life of a cow
Dairy Cow Beef Cattle
Vi t ll R i d W t T d b t R i
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Caribbean
Virtually Required Water Trade between Regionsin 2000 (cereals only)
NorthAmerica
Central
America
SouthAmerica
West
Africa
Oceania
East &
South East Asia
South
Asia
USSR
North WestAfrica
WesternEurope
Middle
East
1~5 5~10 10~15 15~20 20~30 30~50 50