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EFRTC General AssemblyBrussels, 28 November 2008
Worldwide market for railway infrastructure
UNIFE Study Key Findings & Outlook 2016
1. The world market for rail infrastructure : status quo, trends and forecasts
2. Overall industry trends and impact on the rail infrastructure market
Agenda
Total rail supply market volume exceeds EUR 120 bn, infrastructure EUR 22 bn
Key data Worldwide Rail Market Study
22
10
37
53
1231)
Rail control
Infrastructure
Rolling stock
Services
TOTAL MARKET
Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a.
3.0-3.5%
2.5-3.0%
2.0-2.5%
2.0-2.5%
2.0-2.5%
17
10
31
27
861)
Rail control
Infrastructure
Rolling stock
Services 3.5-4.0%
2.0-2.5%
2.5-3.0%
3.0-3.5%2.5-3.0%
ACCESSIBLE MARKET2)
Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a.
1) Figures are including market volume for project integration,Growth rates are 9-year average growth rates
2) ACCESSIBLE MARKET: Part of the market open to any external supplier3) Infrastructure segment includes rail, sleepers, ballast, ballastless, catenary,
traction power supply 3
Accessible market volume rail market [EUR m] – average 05-071)
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
CIS
NAFTA
Rest of America
Asia/Pacific
Africa/Middle East
Infra-structure
Rolling stock
Rail control
Services
35
WesternEurope
24
NAFTA
21Asia/Pacific
20
Other
37
32Services
20Infra-structure
11
Rail Control
REGIONS [%]
SEGMENTS [%]
1) Excluding market volume for project integration
35% of the rail market volume originates from Western Europe
4
RollingStock
6,307 10,718 4,641 7,651 29,317
0,986 1,615 0,587 1,709 4,897
0,639 2,500 0,421 2,004 5,564
5,702 5,260 1,098 8,739 20,799
0,238 0,787 0,187 1,508 2,720
2,652 8,335 2,217 4,976 18,180
0,570 2,090 0,502 0,349 3,511
17,094 31,305 9,653 26,936 84,988
Facts and figures on the rail infrastructure market
VHS, mainline, freight
1.5 million km of passenger and freight infrastructure installed worldwide, 75% of which located in NAFTA, Asia/Pacific and Western Europe
69% of world’s rail infrastructure is mainline
half a million km of electrified track currently installed worldwide
-1/3 in Western Europe where half of all track km are already electrified
- NAFTA represents only 1% of world electrified infrastructure
Urban rail
70% of world’s 56,000 km of urban track are dedicated to light rail operation
Metro infrastructure gaining share in Asia/Pacific and Western Europe, light rail infrastructure mainly in CIS and Eastern Europe
Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.]
Expected growth per product category ranges from 2% to 4%
6
Infrastructure Rolling Stock Rail control Services
Above average growth foreseen for electrification in the mainline segment
High growth ex-pected for (V)HS trains, intercity multiple units and light rail vehicles – slight decline in demand for coaches
Significant growth foreseen for ETCS (within and outside of Europe) and CBTC systems
Solid, global development and increasing accessibility expected, also due to increasing rolling stock base
2.5% – 3.0% 2.0% – 2.5% 3.0 – 3.5% 3.5% – 4.0%
Regional growth focus - mainline
Annual growth rates, accessible market, superstructure and electrification, VHS/ mainline, 2007-2016 [%]
Rest of America and NAFTA to enter VHS market in next few years
Negative growth rate for Eastern Europe to be explained by Turkish important orders in 05-07
Regional growth focus – urban rail
Annual growth rates, accessible market, superstructure and electrification,urban rail, 2007-2016 [%]
in the LT, need for mass transport systems in growing metropolitan areas (Asia)
Short-term growth boosted by huge rolling stock and infrastructure projects
Short-term (2008-2010) and long-term annual growth rates of annual market volume for rolling stock and infrastructure (EUR bn)
Leasing & Financingfacilitates operators' demand and generates additional demand through inter-nationalisation of leasing companies
Shortage of engi- neering capacity may become the bottleneck for growth
Urbanisation
results in additional and lasting demand for public rail transport, esp. in emerging megacities and metropolitan areas
ERTMS
opens European markets and creates additional demand from implementation outside of Europe
Ecological awareness & energy consumption favour rail as an environ- mentally friendly transport mode
Deregulation and liberalisationhigher competition for rail operation increases demand for new rolling stock
Selection of relevant major trends
Overall trends favor the industry's development
10
Indicates impact on the industry