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Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Efficiency between large and small
banks: the role of nonlinearity in
presence of capital regulation
Serena Brianzoni1 Giovanni Campisi2 Annarita Colasante3
1Department of Management
Polytechnic University of Marche
2Department of Economics Marco Biagi
University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
3Laboratory of Experimental Economics
Universitat Jaume I
The 11th Nonlinear Economic Dynamics conference - Kyiv
School of Economics (KSE), September, 4-6, 2019
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Table of contents
Introduction
The Model
Analytical Analysis
Numerical Analysis
MonteCarlo simulations
Conclusions
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Banking industry in economics
In this work we focus on the cost-e�ciency of the italian banking
system considering banks of di�erent size (large and small) as
Brianzoni et al.(2018).
We are going to stress the higher e�ciency of small banks with
respect to large banks following empirical evidence.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Empirical literature on italian banking
sector
• the role of small banks in supporting local �rms and families
thanks to their long and stable relationship (Alessandrini et
al.(2018));
• In period of crisis local banks increased their loans supply in
favour of families and small �rms (Stefani et al.(2016));
• thanks to soft information local banks mitigate information
asymmetries in credit markets allowing them a lower credit
rationing (Barboni and Rossi (2019)).
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
further empirical results
• e�ciency tends to decrease with size;
• cooperatives perform better than others
• geographic localisation matter (Aiello et al. (2013)).
• regulation plays a predominant role in period of �nancial
distress (Alessandrini et al. (2016,2018)).
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Assumptions and motivations
Taking into account the italian banking sector we make the
following assumptions:
• We consider large banks and small banks.
• We assume a quadratic cost function for large banks and a
linear cost function for small banks.
• We introduce a nonlinear demand function as in
Tramontana(2010).
• Empirical evidence shows that e�ciency tends to decrease with
size.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
A first banking model with capital regulationFanti(2014)
• banks of the same size;
• identical marginal costs;
• focus on the role of regulation;
• di�erent bifurcation structure.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
The benchmark modelBrianzoni et al. (2018)
• large and small banks;
• quadratic costs for large banks and linear costs for small banks;
• Justi�cation of the speci�c use of expectations;
• focus on the role of e�ciency;
• An interesting economic scenario emerges from the local
stability analysis of �xed points.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Further extensionsOur model
We start from the work of Brianzoni et al. (2018) and we introduce
nonlinearity in the demand function too as in
Tramontana(2010).
Given that the model is hard to solve analytically we study it from a
numerical point of view.
We focus on di�erences and similarities with respect the work of
Brianzoni et al. (2018).
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
The principal ingredients of the model
Inverse demand function for loans
rL(L1,t + L2,t) = a− b
(1
L1,t + L2,t
)Moreover we have:
Li ,t = Ki ,t + Di ,t
and
Ki ,t = γLi ,t
for every i = 1, 2
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
The Map
L1,t+1 = L1,t + αL1,t
[a− bL2,t
(L1,t+L2,t)2− γ(rk − c1)− c1(2L1,t + 1)
]L2,t+1 =
√bL1,t
a−γ(rk−c2)−2c2− L1,t
(1)
where
• Li ,t , i = 1, 2, represents the loans of the i-th bank during
period t.
• α1 is a positive parameter capturing the speed of adjustment
of bank i's loans.
• c1 and c2 are positive parameters representing the marginal
costs.
• 0 < γ < 1 is a �xed percentage determined by the regulator.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
bounded costs
We underline that in our model both the costs are upper bounded:
c1 < cu1 := a−γrk1−γ (because of the positivity of equilibrium loan
levels) and c2 < cu2 := a−γrk2−γ (for the de�nition set of the map T )
hence cu2 < cu1
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
The boundary equilibrium scenario
Di�erently from Brianzoni et al.(2018) the model never admits a
boundary solution.
From an economic point of view the market is better served if both
types of banks exist.
Now both the costs are upper bounded.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Small banks
Figure 1: Parameter values: γ = 0.16, α = 1.9, c1 = 1.5, rk = 2.5,a = 3.2, b = 0.205. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.36, L2,0 = 0.3.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Large banks
Figure 2: Parameter values: γ = 0.16, α = 1.9, c2 = 1.35, rk = 2.5,a = 3.2, b = 0.201. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.36, L2,0 = 0.3.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
The role of regulation
Figure 3: Parameter values: α = 1.8, c1 = 1.52, c2 = 1.35, rk = 2.5,a = 3.2, b = 0.33. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.39, L2,0 = 0.31.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Controverse effects of regulation
Figure 4: Parameter values: α = 1.8, c1 = 1.7, c2 = 1.5, rk = 2.5,a = 3.2, b = 0.205. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.31, L2,0 = 0.3.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Economic Scenarios
• the e�ciency of small banks w.r.t large banks is con�rmed;
• Di�erently from Brianzoni et al.(2018) the cost e�ciency for
small banks holds for certain values of their marginal costs;
• for large banks we obtain similar results;
• regulation matters but it should be considered with others
measures together.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Cost efficiency 1the simulation
Figure 5: Parameter values: α = 1.9, rk = 2.5, a = 3.2, b = 0.205,γ = 0.16. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.36, L2,0 = 0.4.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Cost efficiency 2
Figure 6: Parameter values: α = 1.9, rk = 2.5, a = 3.2, b = 0.205,γ = 0.16. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.36, L2,0 = 0.4.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Cost efficiency with regulation
Figure 7: Parameter values: α = 1.9, rk = 2.5, a = 3.2, b = 0.205,γ = 0.16. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.36, L2,0 = 0.4.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Large banks and regulation
Figure 8: Parameter values: α = 1.8, c1 = 1.52, c2 = 1.35, rk = 2.5,a = 3.2, b = 0.33. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.39, L2,0 = 0.31.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Small banks and Regulation
Figure 9: Parameter values: α = 1.8, c1 = 1.52, c2 = 1.35, rk = 2.5,a = 3.2, b = 0.33. Initial conditions L1,0 = 0.39, L2,0 = 0.31.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Final remarks
The model focuses on the cost-e�ciency between large and small
banks.
Our work seems to con�rm empirical evidence of a greater
e�ciency of small banks w.r.t. small banks.
Di�erently from Brianzoni et al. (2018) the e�ciency of small
banks holds if their costs are not too low w.r.t. that of large banks.
Introduction The Model Analytical Analysis Numerical Analysis MonteCarlo simulations Conclusions
Future extensions
Some issues and further development of the model:
• a direct role of regulation introducing quadratic costs for small
banks too;
• introduce a functional form for regulation parameter.