Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Resources

Dave PetersonForest Service – PNW Research Station

Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences LabUW College of Forest Resources

Why study forests?

Forests are the primary source of productivity and carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere.

Forest ecosystems are managed for a range of ecological benefits and economic outputs.

Climate is an important top-down control of ecological disturbance.

Forests interact with hydrology to affect water supply and other resources.

Research questions – climatic variability and change

How do species distribution and abundance respond across ecosystems?

How will the growth of dominant tree species respond at various spatial and temporal scales?

How will ecological disturbance, especially fire, respond in different ecosystems?

How do forest productivity and management affect water supply and quality?

Overall strategy: Multi-scale analysis in mountain ecosystems

http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/climet

Spatial scale: local / watershed / mtn. range / region

Temporal scale: paleo contemporary modeling

Highlights of past research

PDO affects growth and productivity of forests at the regional scale

Climatic variability and PDO affect fine-scale patterns of forest growth

Drought and PDO affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire in eastern Washington

Specific synoptic climatology affects forest fire patterns in the Pacific Northwest

Highlights continued…

Fire occurrence and fire effects on vegetation in the Cascades over past 10,000 years

Streamflow and drought reconstructions for the Columbia River since 1850

Produced most accurate reconstruction of PDO based on tree-ring and coral chronologies

Future research – guiding questions1. How will climatic variability and change

affect disturbance regimes, especially fire?

2. How are changing climate and disturbance

regimes likely to affect the composition, structure, and productivity of vegetation?

3. Which mountain resources and ecosystems

are likely to be most sensitive to future climatic change, and what are possible management responses?

The Western Mountain Initiative

A network of mountain protected areas for global change research

http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/wmi

A collaboration between USGS, US Forest Service, and universities

2004 – 2008

WMI scientific approach

Data synthesis and integration; limited collection of new data

Modeling and interdisciplinary efforts

Focused workshops and synthesis publications

Annual workshop for managers

Common-language publications for managersand general public

Integrated activities in the UW Climate Impacts Group

Paleoecological studies

Forest growth and climatic variability

Fire and climatic variability

Forest hydrology

Teaching and mentoring

THANK YOU!

David L. Petersonpeterson@fs.fed.us

206.732.7812http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/fera