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The Tema Institute
Campus Norrköping
Contact: [email protected]
Master of Science Thesis, Environmental Science Programme, 17th October, 2008
Justine Ngoma
EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MAIZE PRODUCTION IN ZAMBIA.
Linköpings Universitet, Campus Norrköping, SE-601 74 Norrköping, Sweden
Datum /Date 17/10/2008
Språk/Language Svenska/Swedish Engelska/English ________________
Rapporttyp Report category Licentiatavhandling Examensarbete AB-uppsats C-uppsats D-uppsats Övrig rapport ________________
ISBN _____________________________________________________ ISRN LIU-TEMA/ES-D--08/06--SE _________________________________________________________________ ISSN _________________________________________________________________ Serietitel och serienummer /Title of series, numbering Handledare /Tutor Hans Holmen
Institution, Avdelning Department, Division Tema vatten i natur och samhälle, Miljövetarprogrammet Department of Water and Environmental Studies,Environmental Science Programme
URL för elektronisk version http://www.ep.liu.se/index.sv.html
Titel /Title Effect of climate change on Maize production in Zambia Författare/Author: Justine Ngoma
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Sammanfattning/Abstract Maize is one of the crops that is grown by most farmers in Zambia being the staple food for the majority of Zambians. However, despite the crop being so important, its production is dependent on climatic conditions. This means that any change in climate can affect the production either negatively or positively. This research therefore, focused on determining how the change in temperature and rainfall affect maize production on the Copper belt, Eastern, Lusaka and Southern provinces of Zambia and investigate the main adaptation measures implemented by both the government and non-governmental sectors. Also, assess through the review of National Agricultural Policy and action plans, how the government has documented issues of climate change. In order to obtain the needed data, interviews were conducted with different officials from both the government and non-governmental sectors. However, from the estimate of the impact of temperature and rainfall on maize production, the results did not show with any significance that either temperature or rainfall has effect on maize production. In fact, it was found that quantifying the effects of climate change on maize production is not easy due to difficulties in quantifying other factors that may also have large impact on maize production. It was therefore, not possible to conclude whether or to what extent climate change has effects on maize production. However from the interviews conducted, it was found that both the government and non-governmental sectors have introduced different activities in their programmes to ensure that farmers are food secure, though the ministry of agriculture has no policy document on how to handle the problem of climate change to address different issues of the sector. In fact, most offices in the ministry do not have much documented information on climate change which could also be seen from the review of National Agricultural Policy and action plans where climate change issue has not been emphasized. Though both the Government and non-governmental sectors have implemented some adaptation measures, it cannot easily be concluded whether the implemented measures are adequate or not due to the fact that we are not sure of the expected effects in different parts of the country. Nevertheless, to enhance food security with or without adverse effects of climate change on maize production, it was recommended that members of staff at all levels under MACO should be trained in the area of climate change for them to have a wider understanding of the issue and work responsively and that much research should be done to open up the mind of the people and help policy makers make effective plans. Nyckelord / Keywords Climate change, Yield, Maize production, Agriculture, Adaptation, Mitigation,
DEDICATION
To mum and in memory of my father
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………….vi
LIST OF ACRONYMS……………………………………………………...… ……...vii DEFINITION OF TERMS……………………………………………………………viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………….....ix
CHAPTER ONE ............................................................................................................... 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background..................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Problem Statement .......................................................................................... 4 1.3 Problem Justification ...................................................................................... 4 1.4 Study Objectives ............................................................................................. 4 1.5 Hypothesis....................................................................................................... 5 1.6 Limitations ...................................................................................................... 5
1.7 Assumptions……………...…………………………………………………..5
CHAPTER TWO .............................................................................................................. 6
2.0 THEORETICAL FRAME WORK................................................................. 6 2.1 Agriculture and climate change in Sub-Sahara Africa...…………………….6 2.2 Climatic conditions in Zambia........................................................................ 7
2.2.1 Temperature ................................................................................................ 7 2.2.2 Rainfall........................................................................................................ 7
2.3 Factors affecting maize production in Zambia .............................................. 9 2.3.1 Climatic factors .......................................................................................... 9
2.3.2 Non-climatic factors…………………………………………………….....9 2.4 Effects of Temperature and water stress on crop yield ............................... 11
2.5 Results of some studies done on the expected effects of climate change on maize production in different places …………………………………...12 2.6 Response to climate change …………………………………..…………...13
2.6.1 Determinants of Adaptive Capacity.......................................................... 14 2.6.2 Adaptation measures by the government and non-governemtal sectors... 14
CHAPTER THREE........................................................................................................ 16
3.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY ......... 16 3.1 Description of the study area ........................................................................ 16
3.1.1 Regional location of the project area ........................................................ 16 3.1.2 Climate and agro-ecological zones ........................................................... 17 3.1.3 Topography and soils................................................................................ 19 3.1.4 Agriculture ................................................................................................ 20
3.2 Methodology................................................................................................. 20 3.2.1 Primary data .............................................................................................. 21 3.2.2 Secondary data .......................................................................................... 23 3.2.3 Selection of the study area ........................................................................ 23
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CHAPTER FOUR........................................................................................................... 24
4.0 DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................... 24 4.1 Data analysis ................................................................................................. 24
4.1.1 Interviews.................................................................................................. 24 4.1.2 Review of the documents.......................................................................... 25
4.2 Results and Discussion ................................................................................. 26 4.2.1 Copperbelt province.................................................................................. 28 4.2.2 Eastern province........................................................................................ 30 4.2.3 Lusaka province ........................................................................................ 33 4.2.4 Southern province ..................................................................................... 35
4.2 5 Eastern, Copperbelt, Lusaka and Southern provinces……………..…….36 4.2.6 Review of National Agricultural Policy and Action plans………….……38
CHAPTER FIVE ............................................................................................................ 43
5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................ 43 5.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 43 5.2 Recommendations......................................................................................... 44
REFERENCES................................................................................................................ 45
APPENDICES…………………………………………………………………………..54
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Map of Zambia showing the line of rail………………………………………...3
Figure 2: Trend of mean seasonal (November to April) temperature in Zambia for the
years 1970- 2005................................................................................................. 7
Figure 3: Rainfall trend and the relationship between rainfall and maize production for
Southern province for the years 1987 to 2003. .................................................... 8
Figure 4: Maize production (metric tones) for the years 1961 to 2004 ............................ 10
Figure 5: Agriculture's sharer of total government budget allocation (1981 – 2006)……11
Figure 6: Regional location of Zambia ............................................................................. 16
Figure 7: Zambian map showing provinces...................................................................... 17
Figure 8: Agro-ecological zones of Zambia ..................................................................... 18
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LIST OF ACRONYMS
AAC: Africa Agriculture climate BBC: British Broadcasting Co-operation FAO: Food and Agriculture Organisation IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KNMI: Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut MACO: Ministries of Agriculture and Cooperatives MM: Mount Makulu NGOs: Non-governmental Organisations SADC: Southern African Development Community SSA: Sub- Sahara Africa UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme USAID: United States Agency for International Development WHO: World Health Organisation
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DEFINITION OF TERMS
Non- governmental sectors: These include private companies (such as seed companies) and programmes that are not under the government.
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ix
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many thanks go to the following individuals and organisations: The Copper belt University for sponsoring the whole programme; Linkoping University for sponsoring air ticket for data collection, the ministry of agriculture and cooperatives and non governmental sectors for releasing data, Hans Holmen (supervisor) for the guidance given to develop the paper, Per Sandén and Åsa Danielsson for statistical help provided; representatives from the ministry of agriculture and all non governmental sectors interviewed for rendering there time; and everybody else who has contributed to the development of this paper.
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Climate change can no longer be avoided. In fact, it is here. So far, the global mean temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees Celsius since late 19th century, and by about 0.2 to 0.3°C over the last 40 years, though the warming is not uniform globally (Climate Ark, 2007). To make the situation worse, BBC, (2007) reported that global average temperature is predicted to rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 and that, in tropical areas, some areas will receive more rainfall while others will receive less. For Zambia specifically, World Bank (2006) indicated that temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade, which is ten times higher than global or Southern Africa rate. Nevertheless, in terms of rainfall, there would be both regional increase and decrease over land areas in the low latitudes (IPCC, 2001). Although it is still uncertain which effects climate change will have in different localities, most models indicate that they will be stronger near the equator – and hence in Sub-Sahara Africa – than in most other major regions on earth. For example, since 1970s, intense and longer droughts have been observed especially in the tropics and subtropics (IPCC, 2007). It is also predicted that countries that depend heavily on the primary sector (such as agriculture), are likely to be more adversely hit than countries that have a more diversified economic base (Mitchell and Tanner, 2006). Africa, according to IPCC (2007), is one of the continents that is most vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. Thus, agricultural production and food security is likely to be severely compromised by climate change thereby putting some regions of marginal agriculture out of production. It is thus, of paramount importance that measures are taken to mitigate the consequences of climate change by way of research, adaptation and domestic resources mobilisation since most of agriculture is rain-fed. This study therefore, aimed at: (a) determining the effects of climate change on maize production on the copper belt, Eastern, Lusaka and Southern provinces of Zambia and (b) investigating the adaptation measures (if any) that are implemented by both the government and its supporting organizations such as non-governmental sectors to ensure that people are food secure. Thus, Maize was chosen because it is the staple food in the country. A distinction needs to be made between climate and weather since this is often a confusing issue. Climate refers to relatively stable regimes that normally only change slowly. Weather, on the other hand, is short-term. Weather can change quickly – from rain to sun-shine – within a day, or less. A climate then refers to long-term relative stability (which is why one can distinguish between climate
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zones, for example) within which weather can be quite unpredictable. In this paper, climate change is used to mean long-term significant change in the average weather (i.e. temperature and rainfall patterns) experienced by a region. Average weather involves changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over durations ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by either natural variability or as a result of human activities.
1.1 BACKGROUND
Zambia has been practicing agriculture since times immemorial. It was brought into the country from Ethiopia and other parts of North and West Africa, and by 4th and 5th century AD, farmers had settled over Southern Africa (Go2Africa, 2006). However, Africa’s most important cereal crop (maize) was introduced in Africa from Central America, the Caribbean and Southern USA by the European explorers, mainly the Portuguese in the 16th Century (Magorokosho et al, 2007), and in Zambia, it first appeared in the Western and North Western parts of the country (Kumar, 1994). After its introduction in Africa, maize replaced sorghum and millet which had previously been the staple food (Magorokosho et al, 2007).
During the colonial administration, white farmers were given the responsibility to produce food for Zambia’s urban population (Biz/ed, 2007). Thus, in 1920’s, as reported by Scott (1995), large-scale farming started when a small number of white immigrants settled on farms so as to supply the growing urban population of which according to Chizyuka (2006), growth in population especially on the copper belt province was due to copper mining activities that attracted a lot of African migrants who were looking for employment. On these farms, Scott (1995) said that maize was always the major crop. Apart from feeding the urban population, maize production in Zambia (also Zimbabwe, Malawi and Kenya) was driven by other factors before 1965 as reported by Smale and Jayne (2003), which included:
• Agronomic suitability of maize • British starch market • Milling technology • Integration of Africans into the settler wage economy • Market and trade policies promoted by settler farm lobbies
However, in the 1960’s many expatriate farmers emigrated from Zambia due to:
• Incentives offered by South Africa and Zimbabwe (Southern Rhodesia) to encourage European farmers to move there and
• Market policies in Zambia that eroded profits. (Adams, 2003)
Even though many white farmers moved out of Zambia at independence, some stayed and continued farming concentrating much on growing maize for the local market (Biz/ed (2007). Nevertheless, with time, maize production shifted from
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large to small scale farmers and from the line-of-rail1 (shown by figure 1 below) to other distant places (Howard et al, 1993). This is because since independence, the government introduced investment and pricing policies that incorporated both production and equity objectives. The main objectives were to:
• Reduce reliance on European commercial farmers • Increase domestic maize production and • Improve regional equity. (ibid)
Figure 1: Map of Zambia showing the line-of-rail
Source: White father’s (2002)
Thus, after independence, as reported by Kwesiga (2005), Zambia’s agricultural strategy was to increase maize production which was achieved through:
• Broad interventions in input and output, which included subsidised fertilizer and credit
• A parastatal monopoly on maize marketing • Network of depots in rural areas to supply inputs and purchase maize
1 An area that is served by the railway linking the Copper belt province with Lusaka (the capital) and with Livingstone (in the southern province). These areas are within the ‘maize belt’, which fall within Agro-ecological zones II and III (see figure 8 below) that receive medium and high rainfall (Scott, 1995) respectively. Along this line, different activities take place such as gardening, fruit growing, poultry, animal rearing ( such as cows and pigs), maize and other crop production, charcoal burning, etc
3
As a result, maize production rose in the 1970’s (Howard et al, 1993). The area planted for maize grew from less than 250,000 ha in the mid 1970’s to nearly 800,000 ha in 1988/89, and during the same time, production increased from 600,000 to 1,997,000 tonnes (ibid). However, by late 1980’s maize production reduced due to:
• Higher fertilizer prices • Reduction in fertilizer price subsidies and • Government inability to manage the logistics such as physical input
delivery, and timely credit provision.(ibid)
However, apart from the above mentioned factors, the IDL group (2002) mentioned floods and drought as some other factors affecting maize production in Zambia. Hence the relevance of this research.
1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT
Global atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (Methane, Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide) have increased markedly since 1950. Due to this increase, global surface temperature has also been observed to have been increasing (IPCC, 2007). World Bank (2006) reported that Zambian summer temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade, which is ten times higher than global or Southern African rate and the study of the rainfall pattern showed that of the 14 years from 1990/1991 to 2003/2004, at least ten (10) years in each agro-economic zone had below normal rainfall. Thus, due to the expected change in climatic conditions, together with the established increase in atmospheric CO2, crop production will be affected world-wide (FAO, 2007).
1.3 PROBLEM JUSTIFICATION
Due to problems of climate, different reports have indicated crop production problems in Zambia. In 2006, World Food Programme (WFP) reported that the prolonged drought reduced food harvest in many provinces of Zambia and that about 2.3 million people were estimated to need emergency food aid. In addition, the SADC (2006) reported that cereal production in Zambia had been low due to dry spells and early stoppage of the rains. As a result, Zambia would need to import about 269, 000 tonnes of cereals compared to previous year (2005) when there was a surplus of 280,000 tonnes.
1.4 STUDY OBJECTIVES The main objectives of this research are:
1. To determine how climate change affects maize production in the Copper belt, Eastern, Lusaka and Southern provinces of Zambia
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2. To review the National Agricultural Policy and action plans so as to assess how the climate change issue is addressed.
3. To investigate main adaptation measures implemented by the government through the ministry of agriculture so as to ensure that people are food secure as the country faces the challenges of climate change
4. To investigate how non-governmental sectors (e.g. seed companies and NGOs) that are active in agriculture are tackling issues of climate change in their programmes.
1.5 HYPOTHESES • Climate change has effects on maize production in Zambia • The Zambian government, through the ministry of agriculture and non-
governmental sectors, have implemented adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.
1.6 LIMITATIONS
• Data collection was done during the period when the country was preparing for national agricultural show. This therefore affected data collection in that some government officials were not found in their offices. As a result data was collected from officers who were not targeted (mainly junior officers). In some situations, no data was collected at all.
• Some data such as fertilizer application could not be collected due to non-availability of such data from the offices visited.
1.7 ASSUMPTIONS
• All production figures used are from rain fed agriculture • Both climatic and production figures are correct • The production season was taken to be from September to April the
following year.
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CHAPTER TWO 2.0 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
This chapter presents a brief description of agriculture and climate change in Africa, climatic conditions of Zambia, and the effects of temperature and water stress on crop growth will be described. Also, examples of how maize productivity is likely to be affected due to the expected change in climate in different parts of the world are given. Lastly, the adaptation measures that can be implemented by the government and non-governmental sectors active in agriculture have also been presented.
2.1 AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARA AFRICA Since early 21st Century, Sub- Sahara Africa (SSA) has failed to keep pace with the rest of the world in terms of development where a total of 330 million people live in extreme poverty (Hellmuth et al (2007). IIASA (2002) indicated that agriculture is a very important sector in the region as more than 180 million people derive their livelihood from it. It provides employment to 70 percent of African population (AAC, 2002 and Haggblade et at, 2004). In rural areas, about 80 percent of the people depend on agriculture and even those not living in rural areas also depend on it to lift them out of poverty (Haggblade et al, 2004). However, despite being a very important sector to Africans, production is primarily subsistence oriented and rain-fed (AAC 2002). This means that any change in climatic pattern would affect the production of different crops in the region. So far, Africa follows global trends of recent increase in temperature and the records show that it has been warming through 20th Century at the rate of about 0.05 degrees Celsius per decade (UNEP, 2002) and in the case of rainfall, KNMI, (2006) mentioned that for many decades now, rainfall pattern has been changing in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Western Mozambique, Southern Malawi and Zambia during 20th Century and for 21st Century with the general trend being a drying trend. In fact, rainfall season has been short by one month in that rainfall delay by one month but no change in rainfall cessation month. Generally, extreme low rainfall will increase by 50 percent by 2100 for Southern Africa and dry events are increasing by up to 30 percent over the Kalahari (ibid). So far, African countries are expected to suffer more by the global climate change due to weak adaptive capacities of their economies and high vulnerability (IPCC (2000) and according to Bhadwal, (2006) high vulnerability is as a result of high dependence on rainfall. Thus, the need for nations to find adaptation measures.
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2.2 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN ZAMBIA Zambia is located entirely within the tropical savanna zone, meaning that the country experiences tropical climate. In this section, both temperature and rainfall conditions in Zambia will be described and their trends shown.
2.2.1 Temperature Zambian temperatures are increasing at the rate of 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade, which is ten times higher than global or Southern Africa rate and the rate of increase is higher in November to December. In fact, after computing the mean seasonal (November to April) temperatures for the year’s 1970 to 2005 using information from 32 Meteorological stations in Zambia, the results gave an upward trend (World Bank 2006) as shown by figure 2 below: Figure 2: Trend of mean seasonal (November to April) temperature in Zambia for the years 1970- 2005
Source: World Bank, 2006
T e m p e r a t u r e
(°C)
2.2.2 Rainfall In Zambia, main rainy months are from October to March with occasional rains in April and sometimes even in May. Thus, rainy season is defined as the period between October and March (Kurji et al, 2003). On average the country receives about 1000 mm of rainfall per year with variations of about 1400 mm in the North
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and 600 mm in the South (Mumba, 2002). According to Kurji et al (2003) the average amount received in some parts of southern province is often below what the farmers require. For example, a study done by Kurji et al (2003) in the Southern province at Moorings farm, Monze, which looked at both total annual and seasonal rainfall, showed a reduction in rainfall over the previous 30 years.
During their study, total number of rainy days2 was also considered and average rainfall per rainy day calculated. Thus, the study showed a reduction in the number of rainy days over the years.
In fact, Mumba (2002) said that Zambia climatic conditions have changed in that since early 1980’s, rainy season has been starting late and the rains have been withdrawing early, and that temperature has been observed to have increased by one degree since 1970’s. Also, World Bank (2006) reported that Zambia has been experiencing an increase in floods, temperature and drought frequency and intensity, of which many scientists, the report said, have attributed it to long term climate change.
Below is a figure showing a general rainfall trend for Southern province for the years 1987 to 2003 and a relationship between rainfall and maize production.
Figure 3: Rainfall Trend and the relationship between rainfall and maize production for Southern province for the years 1987 to 2003.
Source: World Bank, 2006
2If the day receives more than 0.85mm of rainfall (Kurji et al, 2003)
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From figure 3 above, it is clear that there is a direct relationship between rainfall and maize production and that the variations are so huge with low production in 1992 and 2002.
2.3 FACTORS AFFECTING MAIZE PRODUCTION IN ZAMBIA
2.3.1 Climatic factors The different climatic factors affecting maize production in Zambia include: droughts, dry spells and floods. For example, World Bank (2006) reported that due to repeated droughts maize production has shown a general decline from early 1990’s onwards in Zambia. Also, flooding of lowland areas and death of animals (used as drought power) in many places affect the output (FAO, 1998).
2.3.2 Non-climatic factors Non- climatic factors include: access to credit, market, transport, storage infrastructure, fertilizer and high yielding seeds to small scale farmers. For example, from the study done by FAO (1998) reduction in maize production was attributed to lack of credit facilities to farmers and those that were able to be offered credit facilities, the inputs were delivered late to them. Credit facility in terms of cash is also important as it can help farmers to pay for extension services and transportation of final products to the market. Fluctuations in maize production according to Holmen (2005) are also attributed to the introduction of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in the country which in Zambia, was introduced in mid 1980s (Saasa, 2003) and ended in mid 1990’s (Holmen, 2005). Before the introduction of SAP, food production was the prioritised objective and during that time different programmes were embarked on to boost food production such as provision of credit facilities, subsidies inputs, and extension and marketing facilities to small scale farmers. The strategies used to achieve the objectives included: assuming responsibility for supplying inputs and handling agricultural produce through different programmes such as state-led peasant associations, cooperatives and marketing boards; expanding extension; and strengthening research. Private traders were eliminated to ensure that peasant farmers got fair, stable and competitive prices. Thus, the rule was state monopoly in handling agricultural input and products that allowed the government to regulate prices, offer minimum price guarantees, and offer subsidies on seed and fertilizer in a way that peasant farmers could afford. The result of this was positive in that production of preferred crops increased. During SAP, agriculture was not state-led. Thus, introduction of SAP meant liquidation of parastatal to private sector, abolishment of subsidies and price guarantees, no emphasis of staple food and removal of price control on agricultural commodities by the government. This resulted in expanding market opportunities for staple crops like maize and, small scale farmers started adopting high yielding maize varieties.
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Thus, because of such, agriculture responded positively during SAP period. During that period, there was a combination of retained subsidization and de-regulated markets that may have also resulted in positive effects of SAP. After SAP period, staple food crop production was stagnant due to reduced use of modern inputs. Moreover, fertilizer consumption remained stagnant, investment in infrastructure reduced, and extension services changed from top-down to market driven and participatory undertakings (ibid). Thus, maize production during the three periods (pre, during, and post SAP) is as shown by figure 4 below. Figure 4: Maize production (metric tones) for the years 1961 to 2004
MAIZE PRODUCTION (MT) - 1961 T0 2004
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2001 2004
YEARS
MA
IZE
PR
OD
UCT
ION
( M
T)
Source: FAO (2008) data
From the graph above, FAO (1998) reported that a sharp decline in 1992/93 was due to drought that affected most southern African Countries. Apart from the above outlined factors, the amount of money invested in agriculture can also have some effects on production. The studies done by the Institute of economic and social research (2008), shows a great decline of agriculture’s allocation from the total national budget for the period 1981 to 2006 as shown by figure 5 below:
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Figure 5: Agriculture's sharer of total budget government budget allocation (1981 – 2006)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
YEARS
AG
RIC
LTU
RE'
S SH
AR
E O
F G
OVE
RN
MEN
T'S
BU
DG
ET (%
Source: Institute of Economic and Social Research (2008). Data
Moreover, the distribution of the allocated money within the ministry may also have some effects as it affects the type of activities supported most. For example, for the period 2001 to 2006, more support had been going to fertilizer support programme (average 43%) with least support going to community extension (average 0.3%) (Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2008). This therefore, shows that other important activities that have great effects on production such as research, infrastructure development, extension, etc suffer negatively resulting in reduced production.
2.4 EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE AND WATER STRESS ON CROP YIELD
Generally, effects of climate change on crop yields will be through: • Variations in temperature and precipitation • Variations in length of growing seasons and increase in crop pests and
diseases • Alterations of soil fertility. For example, through salination. (IPCC, 2007).
With increased temperature, in C4 plants3, CO2 assimilation rate undergoes thermal acclimation (Dwyer et al, 2006). High temperature also affects the plant through its effects on the availability of water which is very important in the process of photosynthesis. Thus, with high temperature and strong solar radiation, evapotranspiration increases (Holmen, 2003), thereby increasing water stress on the plant which reduces maximal photosynthesis, CO2 quantum yield, and photosynthetically photon flux density (PPFD). Increased temperature may also
3 Plants whose carbon-fixation products have four carbon atoms per molecule (Parker, 2008) such as maize and rice
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result in reduced water availability, leaf turgor, leaf water potential and stomata opening thereby reducing plant growth rate (Colom and Vazzana, 2000). Drought, may generally lead to photo inhibition that may influence crop productivity negatively (Vitale et al, 2007).
Generally, high temperature affects the chloroplasts where photosynthesis takes place. It stimulates production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) which are formed in the chloroplast and excess production of ROS “is one of the reasons for low activity of chloroplast specific enzymes with enhanced sensitivity to oxidative stress (OS), low adenosine triphosphate (ATP) levels and structural arrangements in the thailakoid membrane” (Kleslavski et al, 2007 p.185). Thus, the fact that photosynthesis takes place in the chloroplasts, thailakoid membrane should be in good state and photosystem should function efficiently for a plant to resist and adapt to stress (Kleslavski et al, 2007).
Low temperatures also affect C4 plants in different ways. For example, a study done by Sage and Kubien (2007), showed that when plants that grow well in warm places are taken to cold places, growth rate reduces. This is because rubisco and C4 cycle enzymes increase, which reduces CO2 assimilation rate to below thermal optimum.
For maize specifically, different studies have been done to investigate how the crop responds to different temperature levels during different stages of active growth. Studies done by Ramadoss et al (2004) on maize in Australia, found that maize crop that experienced extremely high air temperatures (41 o C) over several days at the time of anthesis (silking) had lower grain yield and numbers compared to those that experienced lower temperatures. Thus, from this study, it was concluded that under dry land environments, kernel set decreases at anthesis with temperature greater than 38oC compounded by water stress (ibid). Another study done by Stewart et al (1997) indicated that during vegetative growth, maize has a maximum response to temperature of between 25 - 30°C and during reproductive growth, maize responds well to temperatures above 12°C.
Thus, though effect of temperature on photosynthesis seems to have much effect on the grain yield, temperature can also affect the crop at different stages of its growth starting from germination, to vegetative growth and then to reproductive growth.
2.5 RESULTS OF SOME STUDIES DONE ON THE EXPECTED EFFECTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON MAIZE PRODUCTION IN DIFERENT PLACES
From the studies done, different results have been obtained by different researchers depending on how climate has been and is expected to affect maize production in different parts of the world both at regional and local level situations.
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A study by Jones and Thornton (2003) in Africa and Latin America showed both an increase and reduction in maize yield in different parts of the study areas with a reduction of about 10% in total production in both regions to 2055 due to the expected increase in temperature and less conduciveness of rainfall to maize production. Another study done in 2002 in Africa showed a substantial spatial shift in maize cultivation in the region due to climate change by 2055. Specifically, the study results showed that under the assumed 2055 weather conditions, maize yield will be low in Zambia due to the expected increase in temperature and change in rainfall pattern.
In Botswana, a study done by Chipanshi et al (2003), showed a reduction in maize yield by 21.6 and 35.8% in Sand Veldt region with a reduction in growing season by 5 and 7 days following an increase in temperature by 2 and 3°C respectively. From this study, it was found that grain farming is constrained by poor soils and inadequate precipitation with conditions likely to worsen during 21st century due to low precipitation and high temperatures projected by GCM scenarios over the next several decades.
Mati (2002) reported an increase in maize production in some areas and a reduction in other areas of Kenya up to the year 2030 with increase in temperature by above 2°C.
In Zimbabwe, Matarira et al (1995) reported that maize production at all the stations were research was done is more consistent under normal climate than under climate change conditions. Thus, they said that climate change introduces greater variability in maize yields in Zimbabwe. From the results of these studies, it shows that there are still some uncertainties on the expected effects of climate change with greater variability between and among regions and localities. Thus, to ensure that the nation is food secure different groups of people can implement different measure as outlined below.
2.6 RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
This section deals with how the government and non-governmental sectors that are active in agriculture can respond to the climate change which can be either through adaptation or mitigation (Bhadwal, 2006). However, IPCC (2001) encourages adaptation strategies at both national and local level to complement mitigation efforts.
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2.6.1 Determinants of Adaptive Capacity
Adaptive capacity is defined as ‘the general ability of institutions, systems and individuals to adjust to potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities and to cope with the consequences’ (WHO, 2003 p. 28).
According to IPCC (2001), the main determinants are: economic resources (expressed as economic assets, capital resources, financial means, wealth or poverty), technology, information and skills, infrastructure, institutions and equity.
Economic Resources: Generally, adaptive capacity is higher with increase in economic resources and lower with reduced economic resources (Bhadwal, 2006). Thus, ‘wealthy nations are better able to adapt because they have the economic resources to invest and to offset the costs of adaptation’ (WHO, 2007). Technology: For key sectors such as agriculture, it is important to have access to technology (ibid). Generally, potential adaptation options reduce without the technology, and regions with less technology are less likely to develop and / or implement technological adaptations (Bhadwal, 2006). Information and Skills: Adaptive capacity reduces without informed, skilled and trained personnel and ‘access to information increases likelihood of timely and appropriate adaptation’ (ibid). In general, countries with more ‘human capital’ or knowledge have greater adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001). Equity: When a community, nation, or the world access the resources equitably, adaptive capacity is likely to be greater (ibid). Thus, both availability and entitlement to resources are important (Bhadwal, 2006).
However, Africa generally has low adaptive capacity due to lack of economic resources and technology and high vulnerability as a result of depending much on rainfall (Bhadwal, 2006), though the capacity varies for different systems, sectors and it is location specific (Yohe and Tol, 2001).
2.6.2 Adaptation measures by the government and non-governmental sectors Generally, the response by governments can include: increasing extension education to prevent unnecessary water loss from fields; governmental-based agricultural scientists to develop more drought tolerant maize cultivars and varieties that are suited to the variable climatic conditions (Toit et al, 2000); and develop private insurance to reduce climate-related risks to farm level production (Smith and Skinner, 2002). Other measures as reported by World Bank, (2006) can include: disseminating climate change information using simple language, formulate agricultural policy in such a way as to encourage every one (such as NGOs and farmers) to complement the effort of the government in implementing
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adaptation measures; allocate enough funds to the meteorological department for buying equipment which would help capture reliable information, analyse and make reliable forecast; provide opportunities for employment in non-agricultural activities so as to enable rural farmers make a living; invest in seed banks, and other agricultural technologies; invest in research such as water harvesting technologies, irrigation schemes and crops that can resist climatic harsh conditions; remove subsidies on crops that do not perform so well in harsh climatic conditions; provide credit facilities to farmers so that they can buy different seed varieties and fertilizer. Non-governmental sectors can maintain a broad genetic base for crops, develop more drought tolerant crop varieties, and breed for crops that can tolerate higher temperatures (FAO, 2003). Other measures include: disseminating information on climate change to farmers, provide market for agricultural produce so as to reduce post-harvest losses, and provide extension services.
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CHAPTER THREE 3.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY This section gives a general location of Zambia in Africa and the provinces into
which the country is divided. The climate, soil and topography of the country are described which are very important to agriculture. The method used to collect data (both primary and secondary) will also be described.
3.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA 3.1.1 Regional location of the project area
Zambia, with a total landmass area of about 752,000 km2 (Saasa, 2003), is one of African land locked countries located to the Southern part of the Equator between the latitudes 8° 15ٰ and 18° 7 ٰ and between longitudes 22° and 34° east of the Greenwich Meridian (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2007). It has a total population of about 11.9 million people with an annual growth rate of 1.6% (Bureau of African Affairs, 2008).
Figure 6: Regional location of Zambia
Source: MacNeil/Lehrer Productions (2008)
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Administratively, Zambia is divided into nine (9) provinces: Central, Copper belt, Eastern, Luapula, Lusaka, Northern, North-Western, Southern, and Western as shown by figure 7 below. Figure 7: Zambian map showing provinces
Source: Jones (2006)
3.1.2 Climate and agro-ecological zones
Generally, Zambia experiences tropical conditions that are moderated by altitude and rainy season that runs from October to April (about.com, 2008). According to Mumba (2002), climatic conditions are influenced by three (3) factors: • Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ); which results in Northern part of the
country receives more rainfall than the Southern part. • Altitude; that causes low temperatures in the plateau areas • EL Nino; which has been associated with drought in Zambia. In his report, Mumba (2002) also said that Zambia has three seasons: • Warm rainy season (November – April), with temperatures of 27-30°C • Cool dry season (May-July), with temperatures of 16-27°C • Hot dry season (August-October), with temperatures of 27-30°C However, Zambia is divided into 36 agro-ecological zones and based on the amount of rainfall received; it is further grouped into three main (3) zones (Saasa, 2003) as shown by figure 8 and described below:
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Figure 8: Agro-ecological Zones of Zambia
Source: World Bank (2006) Key: Regional Annual Rainfall
Region Amount of rainfall received per year
I Less than 700mm IIa 800 – 1000mm IIb 800 – 1000mm III 1000 – 1500mm
Zone I: It lies in Western and Southern Zambia and receives less than 800mm of rainfall annually. It accounts for 15% of the total land area of the country. This region used to be the food basket of the nation since the last twenty (20) years, but currently, it is not because of the poor distribution and amount of rainfall received. (World Bank, 2006). Other features include: short growing season, high temperatures during the growing season, and high risk of drought (Saasa, 2003). Zone II: It consists of Central part of Zambia extending East through Western and receives about 800 to 1000mm of rainfall annually (World Bank, 2006)) Zone III: It constitutes the northern part of the country and receives over 1000mm of rainfall annually (World Bank, 2006) with other feature as long growing season, low probability of drought, and cooler temperatures during the growing season (Saasa, 2003). This region is suitable for late maturing crop varieties (World Bank, 2003).
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3.1.3 Topography and soils
Topography According to Aregheore (2006), Zambia has three main topographical features: Mountains with altitude of at least 1500m; plateau with altitude ranging 900 to 1500mm; and lowlands with altitude ranging 400 and 900m. In fact the same report said that the country is on the great plateau of central Africa at an average altitude of 1200m though Advarneg Inc (2007) said that most landmass lies between 910 and 1370m above see level. In the North-East, Muchinga Mountains exceed 1800m in height though most rivers and valleys are found in areas below 610m (ibid). However, using the division of the three zones, zone I is found in the range of 300 to 1200m; zone II 900 to 1300m and zone III is in the range 1100 to 1700mm though less than 1000m in Luapula ( Saasa, 2003) (refer to figure 8 above). Soil Generally, soil types can be categorized into four (4) regions (refer to figure 8 above) as reported by Aregheore (2006): Region I: This constitutes Southern and Eastern river valleys with the following characteristics:
• Has flat and deep topography (FAO, 1973) • Contains Haplic Luvisols (ibid) • Contains Haplic solonetz on the flat land and Dystric Leptosols on the
hills and ridges • Soils are loamy and clay, reddish course sandy, poorly drained sandy, and
shallow and gravel in rolling to hilly areas (Saasa, 2003). • Being mainly grassland in nature, this zone supports animal production
(Saasa, 2003) Region IIa: Constitute Central plateaux and has the following characteristics:
• Contains soils of mainly Haplic Lixisols (FAO, 1973), Haplic Luvisols, Haplic Acrisols and other types.
• Support agriculture of different crops such sorghum, maize, Ground nuts cow peas, and many others
Region IIb: Constitute Western plateau and has the following characteristics: • Contains Ferrallic Aresols which are infertile • Contains course sands • Support some Agriculture of some maize and sorghum on the uplands • In flood plain, rice, maize and sorghum are grown
Region III: Comprises part of Central African plateau covering Northern, Luapula, Copper belt, North Western provinces and Northern parts of Serenje and Mkushi Districts (Saasa, 2003) and have the following characteristics:
• Soils are mostly Harpic Acrisols • Traditional farming system is mainly based on slash and burn
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• Soils are red to brown clayey loamy, shallow and gravel in rolling hilly areas, clay, red in colour, poorly to very poorly drained flood plain, and course sandy in pan dambos on Kalahari sand (Saasa, 2003).
• Main crops grown include cassava, maize, sunflower, coffee, tea and many others
However, there are a lot of variabilities both within and among the zones in terms of climate and soils which makes it possible for some areas to be more suitable for some crops than others. In fact, it is because of such variabilities that have made it possible for different crops to be grown throughout the country (Saasa, 2003).
3.1.4 Agriculture Agriculture provides the bulk of food and cash to most people in Zambia. The sector generates 18 to 20 % of the country’s GDP and employs about two thirds of the labour force (World Bank, 2006). Based on size of holding, the FAO (1998) identified three categories of farmers: small-scale (1-10 ha), medium scale or emergent (10-40 ha), and large-scale farmers (more than 40 ha). Small-scale farmers are estimated at 92 percent while medium and large-scale farmers make up eight percent. The different food crops grown in different parts of the country include: groundnuts, beans, maize, cassava, sweet potatoes, irish potatoes, etc and maize, Saasa (2003) said, is grown as the basic staple food for Zambia’s people. It uses about 70 percent of total cropland (World Bank, 2003). Despite agriculture being a very important sector in the country, Dorosh et al (2007) reported that only less than 5% of cropland is under irrigation, indicating that more than 95% of cropland is rain-fed. In fact, the World Bank (2006) reported that whereas there is abundant ground water in Congo/Zaire and Zambezi river basins with irrigation potential of about 523,000 ha, only 46,400 ha are irrigated mainly by commercial farmers, due to lack of finances to buy irrigation equipment. Thus, the dependence on climatic conditions means that any change of its pattern would strongly affect the production of all crops, maize inclusive.
3.2 METHODOLOGY In order to answer the above objectives, both primary and secondary data were collected specifically looking for information on adaptation measures that have been (or planned to be) implemented by both the government through MACO and non-governmental sectors in all the four provinces and for the country at large. Other information collected include: maize production figures, and climatic data (temperature and rainfall).Thus, specific sources are outlined below:
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3.2.1 Primary data
Personal interviews This involved interviewing different officers from MACO and representatives from non- governmental sectors in four (4) provinces: Copper belt, Eastern, Lusaka and Southern. Two non-governmental sectors that have been in operations longer and very active in agricultural activities were targeted in each province basing on the information obtained from the provincial agriculture officers. Thus, non-governmental sectors were included in this research so as to compare their adaptation measures implemented with those implemented by the government through MACO. In Eastern province, data was collected from Panar Seed Company, and PROFIT, while in Copper belt province interviews were only conducted at Panar Seed Company. In Southern Province, data was collected from PROFIT while in Lusaka province, no data was collected from non-governmental sectors due to different reasons such as unwillingness of companies to provide information. However, from the government offices, the main officers targeted were:
• Provincial agricultural officers • Provincial extension officers • Provincial research officers • Representative (dealing with crops) at the ministry of agriculture head
office to get more information on the strategies that are in place. • Provincial meteorological officers
Generally, a total of four weeks was spent in the field conducting interviews with different officers. From all the provinces 25 interviewees were targeted but only 19 people were interviewed due to different reasons a explained below. However though the above officers were targeted, other officers under MACO programmes were interviewed as it was believed that they could also provide more information on the adaptations implemented by MACO through these programmes as advised by officers at MACO. Thus, on the Copper belt province, interviews were conducted with the representative at Programme Against Malnutrition (PAM), in Southern and Eastern provinces at Agriculture Support Programme (ASP), and in Lusaka province at Food Crop Diversification Project. Though data was collected in all these provinces, some problems were faced during the process. From MACO, no data was collected from the following offices as the targeted officers were attending the national agricultural show. Copper belt Province
• Provincial agricultural office Eastern province
• Provincial agricultural office
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• Provincial research office In Lusaka province, it was not easy to get data from the representative at country level as the interviewee thought that the information would be published in the local media and was therefore not willing to be cited in the media. In all the provinces, information on finance could not openly be disclosed as it was considered to be a very sensitive issue and could only be disclosed by the authorised persons within the government system. Data on future plans in extension section of Lusaka, Copper belt and Eastern provinces could not be disclosed as it was believed that it is only the government that can disclose such kind of information. In fact, for all the four provinces, spending one week (five working days) in each province was not enough as it was not possible to find all the targeted officers within that short period. Thus, because of limited time, officers who were not available during the week of data collection in that province were not interviewed. Also, due to limited time, interviews had to be shortened to make sure that at least two officers could be interviewed per day. This method was selected as it was believed that it would give reliable information since there was personal contact with the people holding the information and hence the possibility for clarifications and follow-up questions. In order for the required information to be collected, a questionnaire with open ended questions was made. The questions were asked in a way that their answers would answer the objectives of the research. To ensure that only relevant questions were asked, the questionnaire was first tested on the copper belt province. Thus, officials from the Copper belt province were interviewed before going to other provinces (Copper belt province was used to test the questionnaire because of ease of finding the officers). And after discovering some few problems with the questionnaires (such as lengthy and repetitions of questions), adjustments were made. Though it was planned to get maize production figures from each individual province, no data of such kind was found in all the provinces. Instead, production figures had to be collected from an economist at MACO head office. A similar situation was experienced with meteorological data. Temperature and rainfall figures could not easily be extracted from individual provinces as the figures were only in hard copies (hand written - in the case of Eastern and Southern provinces). In Copperbelt province, no figures were available at all. The needed data had to be obtained from Lusaka province (Meteorological station - head office) where it was available in soft copies for all the provinces in Zambia. After data collection, framework analysis was used to analyse data from interviews and review of National Agricultural Policy and action plans where as production figures and climatic data were analysed using excel.
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3.2.2 Secondary data
Other information was obtained through reading of different literature from libraries and Internet. From both sources, the major materials read were books and articles that had information for Zambia (and other countries) on maize production for the past years, climatic conditions and how it is affecting agriculture in different countries including Zambia and also different theories on the adaptation measures that can be implemented by different groups of people such as non-governmental sectors active in agriculture and the government. Time was also spent reading National Agricultural Policy and other action plans that are in place. This method was chosen so as to help have deeper understanding of the issue in the country through different documents that are available so far and check whether the issues discussed through interviews are documented. Thus, a total of six months was spent reviewing different literature.
3.2.3 Selection of the study area
Zambian “Maize belt” is within Agro-ecological Zones II and III (Refer to figure 6 above) which are plateau portions of Southern, Central, Lusaka, Eastern and Northern provinces, and Southern part of the Copper belt provinces (Scott, 1995). Thus, the four provinces were selected based on their large contributions to the total national maize production and the ease of data collection after considering the available funds for the work involved. For example, the report by FAO (1998), showed that for the period 1992/93 to 1997/98 Eastern Province contributed most followed by Central, then Southern, Northern, Copper belt, Lusaka, Western, Luapula, and then last North-western with the contributions of 24.25%, 23.10%, 18.25%, 12.60%, 5.78%, 4.59%, 3.94%, 3.89%, and 3.61% respectively of the five-year average maize production. Also, only two non-governmental sectors were considered in each selected province after considering that there are only few of them in each province dealing with agricultural activities. In fact, the initial plan was to conduct interviews with only NGOs that have been in operations longer. However, due to the limited number of NGOs, other sectors such as seed companies and programmes had to be visited.
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CHAPTER FOUR 4.0 DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This chapter presents the findings of the research in all the four provinces of Copper belt, Eastern, Lusaka and Southern, which include adaptation measures implemented by both the government and non-governmental sectors to ensure that the provinces and the country as a whole is food secure. The chapter concludes with the results of the review of National Agricultural Policy and other action plans.
4.1 DATA ANALYSIS For both interviews and review of action plans, framework analysis was used following the following steps as outlined by Lacey and Luff (2007): Familiarisation, identifying a thematic framework, indexing and interpretation
4.1.1 Interviews
Familiarisation: This involves “whole or partial transcription and reading of the data” (Lacey and Luff, 2007 p. 14). In this paper, all the responses from the interviewees were read. Identifying a thematic framework: This is the start of coding (or categorizing) of data. In this paper, data was analyzed in each province under the following themes: general, crops, irrigation, funding, and staff. Indexing: This is ‘the process of applying the thematic framework to the data’ (ibid). Thus, specific piece of data that corresponds to the identified themes (general, crops, irrigation, funding, and staff) was identified. Interpretation: In this research, the main focus was to investigate whether the government through MACO or non-governmental sectors has implemented adequate adaptation measures in response to the climate change. Thus, from the information given, the interpretation was made in relation to the main focus of this research.
4.1.2 Review of documents
National Agricultural Policy (NAP)
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP)
National Irrigation Plan (NIP)
Familiarization Whole document Was reviewed
Whole document was reviewed
Only the section dealing with Agriculture was reviewed
Whole document was reviewed
Identification of thematic frame work
Analysis was done under the following themes as appear in the document: Policy objectives; Crops, land- husbandry; farm power and mechanization; livestock; fisheries and cooperatives development; marketing and input supply, agricultural credit and finance; agricultural training and agricultural Information dissemination.
The following themes were identified: General; crops, soil and livestock; fisheries. These themes emerged from the content of the text after reading through the document.
Information was analyzed under ‘general’. After reading through the document, the information could not easily be categorized. Thus, the material was analyzed under ‘general’.
Information was analyzed under the following themes as appear in the document: general, finance and investment, policy and legal, and institutional and social support.
Indexing Specific piece of data that corresponds to the themes was identified.
Same as under NAP Same as under NAP Same as under NAP
Interpretation Based on the information found in the document an explanation was made on how climate change issues have been addressed
Same as under NAP Same as under NAP Same as under NAP
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4.2 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The purpose of this study was, in broad terms, to investigate how climate change affects maize production in Zambia, and to find out which adaptation or mitigation strategies are being formulated and implemented in the major maize producing provinces. Thus, during the discussion, interviewees’ names will not be disclosed for the purpose of confidentiality. Apart from climatic factors, it was found that total production is dependent on different factors as mentioned by different interviewees such as yield (Compare appendices 1-4, figures 3, 8, 13, and 18 showing yield and figures 1, 6, 11 and 16 showing total production), availability of market, and total area under cultivation (Compare appendices 1-4, figures 2, 7, 12 and 17 showing area under cultivation and figures 1, 6, 11 and 16 showing total production). Holmen (2005) attributed maize production to the introduction of SAP and change in policies. Thus, before the introduction of SAP, agriculture was state-led that resulted in increased production due to the associated policies (e.g. strong support for extension, research, market, etc) that encouraged food production. Moreover, food production was the priority objective. With the introduction of SAP, agriculture was no longer controlled by the government that resulted in reduced support through extension, research, market, etc. After SAP period, production reduced because of reduced use of modern inputs. Nevertheless, though Holmen (2005) has attributed reduced total production after SAP to reduced use of modern inputs, reduced government budget allocation to agriculture can also be another reason. From the studies done by the Institute of Economic and Social Research (2008), it shows that agriculture’s share of governments’ budget allocation has been reducing from 1981 to 2006 with great reductions during the period 1998 to 2006 as shown by figure 5 above. In fact, from the small share allocated, most of it goes to fertilizer support programme thereby reducing support for other services such as infrastructure development, extension, and research. For example during the period 2001 to 2006, fertilizer support programme received on average 43% while extension and research received 0.3% and 0.7% respectively of total budget allocation from MACO. Holmen (2005) also mentioned reduced investment in infrastructure such as roads and storage facilities. These are important as farmers need them to store farm produce and transport them to the market. Good roads are also important for delivery of inputs (such as seed and fertilizer) to the farmers. However, though there are a lot of factors affecting production, climate affects production through its effects on yield. However, yield is also dependent on both climatic and non-climatic factors. As mentioned by Long et al (2005), it is determined by available light energy and genetic properties, and the studies done
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by different researchers (see Mati, 2002; Matarira et al, 1995; walker and Schulze, 2006; Chipanshi et al, 2003; Jones and Thornton, 2003; and Jones and Thornton, 2002) indicate that there are a lot more factors that determine yield which include: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, soil parameters (which include: particle size, moisture holding capacity, and bulk density), and crop management (which include: planting dates, fertilizer application and seeding rates). This means that to quantify the effects of climate change on total production, all factors (both climatic and non-climatic) affecting productions have to be taken into consideration. An effort was made to run a multiple regression of yield against rainfall and temperature using MedCalc software in all the four provinces, but the results did not show any significance that either rainfall or temperature have effects on maize yield though figure 3 shows a direct relationship between total rainfall and total production. However, though such results were obtained, not all data affecting maize production was included in the analysis. Some data for example, fertilizer application or type of seeds planted could not be obtained due to non-availability of such data from the offices visited. Moreover, though rainfall data was used, only the figures showing the quantity was available. Information on the distribution of rainfall such as starting and ending dates was not available. It was therefore, not possible to conclude whether climate has effects nor to quantify the extent of the effects of climate change due to the fact that not all the factors affecting maize production were included. This is because:
• Some factors could not easily be quantified such as: availability of market, availability of credit facilities, and amount of fertilizer application on maize.
• This was a small research that was done under limited resources (time and money) that could not support collection of data on all factors affecting maize production.
This lack of important data also reflects the situation that Zambia agronomists, planners and politicians may face when trying to implement adaptive or mitigation measures that are needed to overcome the effects of climate change. However due to widespread poverty, low agricultural productivity, and the importance of agriculture in the country, there is need that different activities are implemented to support the industry and not just focusing on climate change. Hence, to improve on food security and respond to the challenges that come with climate variability in the country, both the government through MACO and non-governmental sectors have implemented different activities in the provinces as outlined below.
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4.2.1 Copper belt province
For this province, total production increased by 125% tonnes during the period 1986/87 to 2004/05 due to different factors such as increase in area under cultivation that also increased during the same period (see appendix 1, figures 1 and 2). In fact, it is not surprising that maize production has been increasing of late in this province. Thus, after the privatization of Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM) which started in 1996 (Bigsten and Kayizzi, 2000), many retrenches resorted to agriculture for a living. This might therefore, be one of the reasons for this increase. To confirm the situation, part of some forestry reserves in the province had to be degazzeted during the same period to allow some ZCCM retrenches have land for agriculture.
However though effect of temperature and rainfall could not be determined, temperature has shown to have increased by about 1°C for the period 1950/51 to 1989/90 as recorded at Ndola station, while no dramatic change has been observed in the amount of rainfall (see appendix 1, figures 4 and 5). In order to help farmers overcome the challenges that come with climate variability they are facing currently and also any further adverse effects they may face in future, different activities have been implemented by the government through MACO as outlined below.
Adaptation measures implemented by the Government
Research section The main activities done include:
• Conducting demand driven research • Focusing on early maturing varieties • Researching on diversification from maize • Breeding for drought tolerant varieties
Extension section From the interviews conducted, nothing was reported to have been done in response to climate change problems since no major abnormalities were reported to have been experienced in the province. In fact, for future activities, instructions were still being awaited for from the government. Apart from the above outlined activities, the Government through Programme Against Malnutrition (PAM):
• Advises farmers to grow early maturing crops. PAM is a government implementation agency for the Food Security Pack (FSP) that was introduced in 2000. FSP falls under the ministry of Community
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Development and Social Services (MCDSS) but is jointly coordinated with the ministries of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MACO) and Finance and National Planning (MoFNP). The pack was introduced to empower vulnerable but viable farmers who had lost their productive assets due to recurrent adverse weather conditions and the negative impact of Structural Adjustment Reforms that reduced the accessibility by small scale farmers to yield enhancing inputs and services. Also, the pack was introduced as a Social Safety Net Programme under the ministry of Community Development and Social Services aimed at improving household food security of the vulnerable by providing them with the means of economic growth and poverty reduction. The main objective of the pack is to empower the targeted vulnerable but viable household to be self sustaining through improved productivity and household food security and thereby contribute to poverty reduction. In order to achieve the overall objective, four complementary components that constitute the programme include: Crop diversification and conservation farming; market entrepreneurship and seed/cereal bank development; alternative livelihoods; and management and coordination. Thus, it is through this programme that PAM has been advising farmers to grow different crops such as Cassava, cowpeas, millet, sorghum and maize. Capacity building has been one of the activities and also linking farmers to NGOs that provide different services such as irrigation facilities. In order to prepare for the expected future climate change, the ministry through research section will:
• Concentrate on drought tolerant crops such as cassava and finger millet • Concentrate on Rainwater Harvesting Technologies • Wish to do civic education to farmers on the issues of climate change if
funds permit From these findings, it has shown that different activities have been implemented to ensure that households are food secure and from these results, it has shown that the implemented activities are as a result of both climatic and non-climatic problems such as poverty. However, data from the provincial agricultural officer could not be obtained due to the preparations of national agricultural show that was taking place where she went to attend. Apart from the Government, non-governmental sectors have also implemented different activities as outlined below.
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Adaptation measures implemented by non-governmental sectors In this province, interviews were conducted at Panar Seed Company which has different activities in its programmes to help farmers overcome the problem of climate variability faced in the area which include:
• Conducting field days in conjunction with the ministry of agriculture and NGOs
• Provide extension services on drought tolerant, pest resistant, early maturing and high yielding crops.
Panar is a seed company that came to Zambia in 1997. Its main objective is to supply best cultivars at the right time and at the door steps. Its breeding programmes are focused on selecting varieties that are stress and disease tolerant and bred to perform under agro-ecological conditions that are unique to the specific region. From the interviews conducted in Copper belt and Eastern provinces, the main activities done since the inception of the company in the country include research, marketing and provision of extension services to farmers. Extension services are demand driven and are provided in conjunction with the ministry of agriculture. For research on different cultivars including hybrids, trials are run in South Africa but tested in different places and those found to best suit the region are sold there. Marketing follows the suitability of the seeds to the region. The seeds that are suitable to a specific region are sold there. From the inception of the company, farmers are being advised to plant different kinds of seeds for different crops including maize starting from early to late maturing crop varieties depending on the climatic conditions in the region
In Copper belt province, the company was launched in 2000 in response to favorable government policy that supports agriculture. Thus, since the inception of the company in the province, maize has been encouraged being the staple food. Just like the government, Panar Seed Company has also implemented different measures in the Copper belt province in response to climatic factors. However, data was only obtained from one company due to problems of finding officers in other sectors.
4.2.2 Eastern province
Generally, maize production declined by about 56% for the period 1986/87 to 2004/05 which can be attributed to different factors such as decline in area under cultivation and crop yield that also reduced during the same period (see appendix 2, figures 6,7 and 8). In this province, temperature has shown an increase of about 1°C for the period 1956/57 to 1985/86 as recorded at Chipata, Lundazi, and Petauke stations without any dramatic change in the amount of rainfall (see appendix 2, figures 9 and 10)
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However, to overcome the challenges that come with climate variability the region is currently facing and also prepare for any further adverse effects that may be faced in future, different activities have been implemented by the government through MACO as outlined below.
Adaptation measures implemented by the Government Extension section The main activities introduced include:
• Advising farmers to plant drought tolerant, pest resistant and early maturing crops such as hybrids
• Advising farmers to plant improved maize varieties such as MM600 and MM400
• Giving irrigation pumps to farmers • Advising farmers to buy irrigation pumps
However, information regarding future plan was not disclosed, which, according to the interviewee, has to come from the government. Apart from the above outlined activities, the government, through Agriculture Support Programme (ASP)
• Collaborate with loan providers such as Zambia National Credit and Savings Bank to help farmers get the loan,
• Connect farmers to organizations that provide irrigation equipment
ASP which was a five year programme under the ministry of agriculture funded by Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) and managed by a consortium of consultancy companies had Ramboll Natura AB as the lead consultant. It started in 2003 with the objectives of improving food and nutrition security and increasing income among the target group, mainly through sale of agricultural and agricultural related products and services targeting mainly small scale farmers who have the potential to develop into entrepreneurs. ASP worked through five components as entrepreneurship and business development; land, crop, seed and livestock development; infrastructure fund; improved service delivery of support entities; and management, information and learning systems.
In Eastern province, it was launched in 2003 the same year it came into the country after looking at the families that are vulnerable and also the willingness of the community to work with the programme.
Since the inception of the programme in Eastern province, maize production had been encouraged being a political crop. Also other crops such as ground nuts, soya beans, and beans were encouraged in addition to livestock rearing. Training of farmers and conducting field demonstrations were some of the main activities
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done. However, the program was reported to have been winding up by the end of 2007. In this province, the extension section seems to have implemented different activities both in response to climatic problem faced by farmers and promotion of agriculture and/or rural development. Nevertheless, data could not be obtained from the provincial agricultural and research officers who were attending the national agricultural show. Apart from the Government, non-governmental sectors have also implemented different activities as outlined below.
Adaptation measures implemented by non-governmental sectors From the interviews conducted with representatives at Panar Seed Company and at Production, Finance and Technology (PROFIT), different activities were found to be implemented by different organizations as outlined below. Panar Seed Company In this province the main activities done to help farmers overcome the challenges that come with climate variability include:
• Conduct planting demonstrations of different varieties in conjunction with NGOs and the ministry of Agriculture
• Introducing different cultivars to farmers suitable for different conditions such as drought resistance and disease tolerance and
• Encouraging farmers to have irrigation facilities In fact, the company plans to continue to help prepare farmers for the expected future climate change by:
• Continuing to bring in new varieties that will be suitable in the area depending on how the climatic conditions will be.
• Continuing to deliver seeds to farmers and train them in conjunction with NGOs and the ministry of Agriculture
Production, Finance and Technology (PROFIT) From the interviews conducted, no activities were reported to have been implemented to prepare for the expected future climate change as the programme was reported to wind up in 2010. However, different activities are done to help farmers overcome the problem of climate variability they are currently facing, which include:
• Linking them to organizations that provide irrigation facilities • Encourage them to practice conservation farming and
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• Encourage them to have appropriate seed varieties depending on weather conditions experienced in the area.
PROFIT is a five year USAID funded programme that targets production, finance and improved technology as a means to foster increased economic growth and reduced poverty in rural Zambia. In Zambia, it was launched in 2005 and expected to phase out in 2010. The targeted industries are Cotton, Livestock and non-timber forest products (honey and beekeeping products). Since the inception of the programme, different activities are done including research and the provision of extension services. Thus, through extension work the organization links farmers to input suppliers and also provide some funds for training of farmers, for example, in spraying of cotton. In Eastern province, the programme was launched in May 2006 with the future plans of promoting and facilitating conservation farming.
4.2.3 Lusaka province For the period 1986/87 to 2004/05 maize production declined by about 13% which can be attributed to reduction in area under cultivation (see appendix 3, figures 11 and 12). Apart from total area, other factors that might have affected maize production as pointed out by the interviewees include: late planting, lack of training for farmers, and lower crop management, for example application of fertilizer below the recommended quantity. Lusaka is the capital of Zambia and a big city. Hence, it represents a large market. Many farmers have thus had the opportunity to partly switch to more profitable crops, such as fruits and vegetables. Hence, reduced maize production in this province is not necessarily a bad sign and it might have nothing to do with climate. However, figures 11 and 13 of appendix 3 show that there is an indirect relationship between production and yield. Thus, though production reduced, yield increased for the same period. Being the capital city, this might be associated with early availability of farm inputs and also available technology in the region that may reach the farmers earlier than in other provinces. Nevertheless, as recorded at Kafue, Lusaka 02 and Mt. Makulu meteorological stations, temperature increased by about 1°C for the period 1970/71 to 1991/92 without much change in the amount of rainfall (see appendix 3, figures 14 and 15) In this province, different activities to help farmers overcome the challenges that come with climate variability are outlined below
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Adaptation measures implemented by the Government
Research section • Emphasizing research on drought resistant crops • Intensification of water conservation methods such as pot whole tillage
in the fields • Re-introduction of water harvesting technology of using clay pot
Extension section
• Prioritise conservation farming in the program • Advise farmers on the type of seeds to plant and crop diversification to
drought tolerant crops such as sorghum Other activities implemented in the province include:
• Building capacity to communities to manage irrigation schemes • Putting in place irrigation development Fund • Encouraging farmers to get loans from institutions such as Banks so
as to buy irrigation equipment • Encourage conservation farming • Advise farmers to plant early maturing crops • Promote crop diversification. For example cassava is being pushed in
places where it has never been. Apart from the above outlined adaptation measures, the government through Food Crop Diversification Project, is promoting food crop diversification so as to reduce over-dependence on maize by promoting drought tolerant food crops. It is a five (5) year project that started in October 2006 dealing with cassava and sweet potatoes in drought prone areas of Agro-ecological Zones I and II specifically in Southern, Eastern and Western provinces. The Zambia Agriculture Research Institute (ZARI) and Department of Agriculture, under MACO, are the key implementers in collaboration with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and ZARI being the main implementer. In order to continue preparing for the expected future climate change:
• Proposal has been made by the research section to train more researchers
• Research will concentrate on crops such as sorghum, cassava, and pigeon pea for the reason of diversification.
• Research will be done on how to store water underground from the roofs of buildings.
However, for extension section, future plans are still being awaited for from the government since work plan is dependent on government policy. Thus, from the findings outlined above, many activities have been implemented to ensure that the country is food secure of which these activities if continue, can
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still help the nation to be food secure with or without adverse effects of the expected global climate change. Adaptation measures implemented by non-governmental sectors For Lusaka province no data was collected from non-governmental sectors due to different reasons. For example, at the office of Panar Seed Company, the information was not released as it was considered to be sensitive to be given to an individual, unless a company. After visiting World Vision, the appropriate person dealing with issues of agriculture was not in the office during the period of data collection.
4.2.4 Southern province
Maize production declined by about 62% during the period 1986/87 to 2004/05 in this province, which can be attributed to reduction in area under cultivation and yield that declined during the same period (see appendix 4, figures 16, 17 and 18). Temperature increased by about 1°C for the period 1950/51 to 2002/03 as recorded at Choma and Livingstone stations with a slight reduction in amount of rainfall (se appendix 4, figures 19 and 20). Nevertheless, in response to the challenges that come with climate variability in the region, the main activities implemented by the government through MACO and non-governmental sectors are as outlined below.
Adaptation put in place by the government
Research section
• Focusing research on drought tolerant crops. • Researching on crop diversification • Practicing demand driven research • Breeding early maturing and disease tolerant crops. • Researching on water harvesting technologies to conserve water
Extension section
• Focusing on drought tolerant crops • Emphasizing on conservation farming • Taking bulletins from meteorological station to farmers on climatic
information • Advising farmers to grow early maturing maize varieties and other
drought tolerant crops such as cowpeas, cassava, and sorghum Apart from the above outlined activities, other activities implemented include:
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• Creating awareness to farmers on the importance of irrigation schemes • Construction of irrigation schemes for some farmers
In order to prepare for the expected future climate change:
• The ministry will continue promoting conservation farming and has set aside some money to continue constructing irrigation schemes for farmers.
• The research section wants to conduct need assessment and will continue concentrating on drought tolerant crops (e.g. cassava) and conservation farming
• The extension section plan to provide training to field staff on how to cope with ongoing climate variability, and focus on educating farmers to take farming as a business.
In this province, different activities have been implemented just like the other three provinces in response to the problems of climate variability currently faced by farmers. However, if the same activities will continue running, farmers will still be helped to have food in the event that the region faces adverse effects of the expected future climate change. Adaptation measures implemented by non-governmental sectors Non-governmental sectors have also seen the challenges that come with climate variability and have taken certain steps to help farmers overcome them. In this province, interviews were conducted with PROFIT and just like in Eastern province, the organization
• Links farmers to organizations that provide irrigation facilities • Encourage farmers to practice conservation farming and • Encourage farmers to have appropriate seed varieties depending on
weather conditions experienced in the area. In this province, the programme was launched in 2005 and is expected to wind up by 2010, which is a disadvantage to farmers in that the services currently being provided might not continue. Interviews were conducted only at PROFIT due to different reasons. For example at World Vision, the officer who could provide the needed information was busy with another visitor during the period of data collection.
4.2.5 Eastern, Copper belt, Lusaka and Southern provinces From the analysis of the results in all the four provinces, it has shown that temperature has increased by about 1°C since 1950’s with little variations in amount of rainfall (see appendices 1 to 4, figures 4,5, 9,10,14,15,19 and 20) for different periods in different provinces. However, though both temperature and rainfall have shown some trends, meteorologists in all the provinces did not
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confirm whether Zambian climate is changing though climate variability is a major challenge in the country. Nevertheless, general temperature trend does not contradict with the trend shown by figure 2 produced by World Bank (2006), though figure 2 shows the trend for the whole country while the current research shows trend for individual provinces from only four (4) provinces and even for each province, figures were not from all the meteorological stations due to non-availability of data. Also, from figure 2, the season was taken to be from November to April while during the current research, the season was taken to be from September to April. Additionary, figure 2 shows the trend for the period 1970 to 2005 while the trend for the current research are for different periods for different provinces ranging from 1950 to 2005. Comparing the production situation in all the four provinces, it is only in the copper belt province where production has been increasing with reduction in the other three provinces for the same period 1986/87 to 2004/05. As mentioned earlier, increase in production can be associated with privatisation of copper mines that resulted in many retrenches resorting to agriculture for a living. However, despite increased production, yield reduced for the same period which might be due to late availability of farm input and also poor access to agricultural technology being a region that is far from the capital city. A similar trend in yield is seen in Eastern and Southern provinces which are also far from the capital city. For Southern province, a reduced trend in yield can also be associated with the death of animal due to diseases. According to Miyanze (2007), periods of low crop production due to drought spells also had incidences of livestock diseases such as the East Coat Fever and Contagious Bovine Pleural Pneumonia in the province. In this province, animals are a big asset to farmers as they use them as draught power. However, for all the four provinces, area under cultivation seem to have direct effect on total maize production as it has shown to have a direct relationship with production. However, to overcome the challenges that might come with climate change, both the government and non-governmental sectors, are responding positively in all the four provinces. In fact, the activities implemented by the government covering the whole country include:
• Encouraging conservation farming • Advising farmers to plant early maturing crops • Promoting crop diversification. For example cassava is being pushed
in places where it has never been. • Putting in place irrigation development fund • Implementing irrigation policy to encourage farmers have irrigation
facilities. • Building capacity to communities to manage irrigation schemes
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Also, in order to prepare for any further effects of climate change that might affect farmers adversely, MACO
• is trying to push for irrigation, especially in places with a lot of water such as Northern part of the country
• will continue to promote Cassava growing so that, if possible, it can be exported.
• is proposing duty free imports for farmers who want to take irrigation facilities into the country
However, a major obstacle to adaptation which needs to be flexible and local specific is the apparently strong dependence of local and provincial authorities on directives from above. 27% of the interviewees from MACO said that they were still awaiting instructions from the central government. Thus, in order to have more understanding on how climate change problem is being addressed in the country, especially in the ministry of agriculture, different documents such as National Agricultural Policy (NAP), National Irrigation Plan (NIP), National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), and Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP) were reviewed.
4.2.6 Review of National Agricultural Policy and action plans National Agricultural Policy (NAP) – 2004 to 2015 The agricultural sector which has a vision of promoting ‘development of an efficient, competitive and sustainable agricultural sector, which assures food security and increased income’ has the specific objectives of: assuring national and household food security; ensuring that the existing agricultural resource base is maintained and improved upon; generating income and employment to maximum feasible levels; contributing to sustainable industrial development; and expanding significantly the sector's contribution to the national balance of payments. These objectives will be achieved through different strategies and some of them are: diversification of agricultural production and utilization, development and promotion of appropriate technologies, promotion of sustainable and environmentally sound agricultural practices, strengthening emergency preparedness through early warning and timely and efficient crop forecasting, and promoting irrigation development. NAP is therefore there ‘to facilitate and support the development of a sustainable and competitive agricultural sector that assures food security at national and household levels and maximizes the sector's contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)’ which will be realized through the following objectives of: ensuring national and household food security; contributing to sustainable industrial development; increasing agricultural exports; generating income and employment; and ensuring that the existing agricultural resource base is
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maintained and improved upon using the same strategies as those used to achieve the sector objectives as outlined above. NAP has also outlined sub-sectors with different objectives and strategies. These sub-sectors include: Crops extension, seed development and crops and soils research; irrigation; land-husbandry; farm power and mechanization; livestock; and fisheries and cooperatives development. Other important areas covered include: marketing and input supply, agricultural credit and finance, agricultural training and agricultural information dissemination. Thus from the review of this document, the vision till 2015 and the objectives are clear. However, from the objectives, it shows that there are still other problems to handle such as: increasing household food security; improving the existing agricultural resource base; and generating income and employment. Thus, this shows that issues that help in reducing poverty seem to be more of a priority than climate change issue. However, from the analysis of the strategies for achieving the overall objectives of the sector, the implementation of some of them can still help address the problem of climate change in the event that the nation is affected adversely by the expected future climate change such as diversification of agricultural production and utilization, development and promotion of appropriate technology, and promoting irrigation development. Also, some strategies used for achieving some sub-sector objectives can help to handle the problem of climate change such as promotion of crop diversification and use of improved technologies in crop extension; promotion of conservation farming and rainwater harvesting technologies; and promoting the development of dams, ponds and water points for livestock. In fact, irrigation has also been emphasized to the extent that the National Irrigation Plan was developed running from 2006 to 2011 so as to address the problem of droughts suffered by many farmers in the country. National Irrigation Plan – 2006 to 2011
Due to severe droughts suffered by Zambia that result in reduced crop yield and death of live stock, the National Irrigation Plan was developed which would run from 2006 to 2011 with the main objective of promoting the use of irrigation to accelerate sustainable agriculture development, targeting different types of farmers including smallholders, emerging commercial and large scale commercial farmers living in areas of high irrigation potential.
Thus, in order to stimulate an irrigation-based agricultural industry in the country, the Government proposed three interventions under this plan which are: Finance and Investment, Policy and Legal, and Institutional and Social support.
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Finance and Investment In order to minimize the impact of the constraints related to finance and investment gaps, Irrigation Development Fund (IDF) would be established for investment in irrigation-related projects and acquisition of technology by farmers and industry operators.
Policy and Legal The proposed policy and legal interventions that provided incentives for investment include: reduction of cost of energy, reduction in cost of irrigation equipment, and improved incentives for investing in irrigation such as tax rebates on irrigated farmers to encourage retention of re-investable capital.
Institutional and Social support In order to improve the institution and social environment for the operation of irrigated farming, the following interventions were proposed: streamlining issuance of water rights; improve the capacity for MACO extension through training; improve the capacity of farmer organizations through training and assistance with communication facilities; support to out grower promoters in form of transportation; Support to irrigation research through the re-establishment and maintenance of research capacity at National Irrigation Research Station (NIRS) (at Nanga) and also through support to Technology Development and Advisory Unit (TDAU) at the University of Zambia so as to improve its capacity to manufacture irrigation equipment and test imported equipment From the review of this plan, it is clear that irrigation is being supported especially if the interventions have been implemented on the ground and not just documented. Thus, in the event that the nation is affected adversely by the expected future climate change, the National Irrigation Plan implemented can still help farmers access certain facilities such as funding, and reduced cost of energy and irrigation equipment which will in turn help them be food secure. Fifth National Development plan (FNDP) – 2006 to 2010 FNDP was developed to run from 2006 to 2010. For agricultural sector, the overall objective is as set out in NAP. During this period, different programmes would be implemented including irrigation development and support to promote a well regulated and profitable irrigation sub-sector that is attractive to the public and private sectors, and development of agricultural services and with the objective of providing appropriate, efficient and effective technology and transfer services to farmers in order to assist them increase agricultural production and productivity. Thus, the agricultural section of this plan has no emphasis on the issue of climate change though it has a plan of developing and supporting irrigation. This means that with or without the problem of climate change irrigation still receives strong support from the government of which even if the country is to be affected
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adversely with the expected global climate change, support for irrigation which is already in place will still help the nation be food secure. National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) According to the reports obtained from the Ministry of Tourism, Environment, and Natural Resources (MTENR) head office in Lusaka, the government of the republic of Zambia through MTENR embarked on the development of National Adaptation Programme of Action4 (NAPA), which will serve as a road map for the country towards the implementation of climate adaptation activities in order to contribute to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and promote environmental sustainability. NAPA focuses on the identification of a list of priority activities, formulation of priority for adaptation, building capacity and raising awareness about the urgent need to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. Thus, from the review of NAPA, the following adaptation measures (categorized under general; crops, soil and live stock; and fisheries) were identified applicable to agriculture which were suppose to go through further screening. General: Promotion of irrigation and efficient use of water resources; boosting the Zambezi River Water System to increase delivery; application of GIS/remote sensing in mapping drought and flood prone areas; and establishing climate observations or monitoring systems on selected lakes, rivers, and dams Crops, soil and livestock: Improve post-harvest storage and marketing of produce; strengthening of early warning systems and preparedness; development of dams and dip tanks and sustainable supply of feed to mitigate the effects of droughts; promotion of early maturing/drought resistance crops; develop sustainable and appropriate programmes for both crops and livestock in the face of climate change; use of technologies for fertility improvement and moisture storage (including soil conservation measures); promotion of improved crop and livestock management practices; and introduction and recommended improved livestock breeds Fisheries: Fish breeding to restock the lakes, rivers and dams; generating information on the effect of temperature on the efficacy of fish breeding and survival; assessment of the ecological succession of fish attributed to global warming; assessment of the impact of extreme variations in precipitation on aquaculture systems; and identify species suitable for aquaculture in each area especially the vulnerable areas. Thus, from this document, it shows that the nation is aware of the problem of climate change and is preparing itself for the expected effects.
4 At the time of data collection, NAPA was still a draft copy.
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However, it is very disappointing that the ministry of agriculture has no policy document on how to handle the problem of climate change to address different issues of the sector. In fact, most offices in the ministry do not have much documented information on climate change. Moreover some of the members of staff under MACO seemed not to have wider knowledge of climate change. This may therefore, explain the difficulties found during data collection, as some members of staff could not express themselves easily due to lack of knowledge, while others were fearing of being quoted in the media ( as they thought that the information would be published in the local media). Thus, lack of policy document on the issue, lack of documented information on the adaptation measures implemented and some ignorance on members of staff, may give a question on the reliability of the information provided by different sections and its implementation. This, therefore, shows that more has to be done by the ministry such as training of staff and improving data management system to ensure that adequate preparations are made for the expected future climate change that may affect the sector adversely. Thus, though the Ministry of Tourism, Environment, and Natural Resources (MTENR) is taken as the focal ministry on climate change issues and had even more information on the issue, MACO is still expected to have more and detailed information on the issues affecting agriculture than MTENR. This should then be a problem in the ministry of agriculture which can be attributed to different factors such as lack of reliable source of information on climate change. In fact some interviewees complained of not receiving much information on the issue from the ministry. Moreover, even important documents reviewed (with an exceptional of NAPA which is under MTENR) do not have much emphasis on the issue. However, though there seem to be some irregularities in the Ministry, it is comforting to see that efforts are being made to implement different activities to enhance food security in the country. The same activities (such as support for irrigation) can also help in overcoming the challenges that may come with the expected future climate change In fact, the government seems to be making more efforts than non-governmental sectors and there seem to be good coordination between the two stakeholders. However, during data collection, it was not so easy to collect data from non-governmental sectors due to different reasons in different provinces as explained above. This therefore made it difficult to make a good comparison of the adaptation measures implemented by the government and non-governmental sectors. In fact, the big problem with the non-governmental sectors is that they are short-lived, meaning that it is difficult to make very long plans. Their plans are only up to the time the projects come to an end.
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CHAPTER FIVE 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 CONCLUSIONS
Scientists have reported that climate has changed and will continue to change. However we do not know (yet) the extent of the future change and how it will affect different localities due to limited knowledge available. This may explain the apparent scanty attention paid to climate change in NAP and other action plans. An effort was made to estimate the impact of temperature and rainfall on maize production. However, since it was impossible to isolate the impact of these variables from the impact of other variables, the results did not show with any significance that either temperature or rainfall has effect on maize production. Moreover, it is not easy to quantify the effects of climate change due to difficulties in quantifying other factors that may also have large impact on maize production. Thus, it was therefore, not possible to conclude whether or to what extent climate change has effects on maize production. In fact, comparison of trend in all the provinces could not easily be made due to the fact that figures available for temperature and rainfall were for different periods of time for different provinces. Even within the provinces, data available for different stations were for different years in many cases. In some cases, data was still missing for some months within the season. Thus, this lack of consistent information illustrates the awkward situation that exists in data management that is likely to affect planning and research that requires climatic data in Zambia. However, despite the problem of data management, it was found that both the government and non-governmental sectors have implemented different activities to improve on food security with or without the adverse effects of climate change. Some of them if continued can still help in overcoming the challenges that might come with the adverse effects expected from future climate change. Nevertheless, it cannot easily be concluded whether the implemented measures are adequate or not due to the fact that we are not sure of the expected effects in different parts of the country. However, the good news is that measures are being taken though there seem to be lack of knowledge amongst members of staff on the issue and resources (money) to help staff acquire more knowledge through training and research. Thus, in order to enhance food security with or without adverse effects of climate change on maize production, the following recommendations can be considered:
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5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS
• Training of members of staff under MACO at all levels is needed in the area of climate change so that they have a wider knowledge on the issue and are aware of the expected effects. With that in mind, staffs will be able to carry out their duties responsively and in turn be able to educate the public.
• Information centre should be established (if not existing currently) so as to disseminate timely information (in connection with the meteorological department) to members of staff and the farmers on the expected effects of climate change
• Much research should be done in the area of climate change which will open the mind of people (and the government) of what is expected in the country and later on help them plan on how to handle the expected problems
• Extension must be executed in dialog with farmers and not just imposing information to farmers.
• Government needs to invest more in infrastructure such as roads and storage facilities so as to facilitate transportation of agricultural inputs to farmers and agricultural products from farmers to the market and also storage of products.
• Enough funds should be allocated from the government to the meorological department to buy good equipment so that the department is able to produce reliable information to be used by MACO.
• Any project or NGO coming into the country under MACO should have a component of climate change in its programme so as to ensure that different stakeholders participate in handling the problem.
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Accessed date: 28th January, 2008. Lacey, A. and Luff, D. (2007): Qualitative Data Analysis. Trent research and development support Unit (TRENT RDSU). National Institute for Health Research (NHS) http://www.trentrdsu.org.uk/uploads/File/Qualitative_Data_Analysis_Revision_2007.pdf Accessed date: 10th July, 2008 Long, S.P., Zhu, X., Naidu, S.L., and Ort, D.R. (2005): Can improvement in photosynthesis increase crop yields?. Departments of Crop Science and Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA, and Photosynthesis Research Unit, USDA-ARS, Urbana, IL 61801, USA MacNeil/Lehrer Productions, (2008): Online newshour. About Zambia. A Health Spotlight Special Report. http://images.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/aids_in_africa/images/map_zambia.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/aids_in_africa/zambiafacts.html&h=331&w=300&sz=10&hl=sv&start=6&um=1&tbnid=4Rz9YaDvccXMVM:&tbnh=119&tbnw=108&prev=/images%3Fq%3D%2Bmap%2Bfor%2BZambia%26um%3D1%26hl%3Dsv%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-GB:official%26hs%3DdHP%26sa%3DX Accessed date: 15th July, 2008 Magorokosho, C., Warburton, M., Banziger, M., Betran, J., Dreisigacker, S. (2007): The Introduction of Maize in Africa and Current Levels of Diversity in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi. Botanical Society of America http://www.2007.botanyconference.org/engine/search/index.php?func=detail&aid=953 Accessed date: 11th March, 2008
Matarira, C. H., Makadho, J.M., and Mwamuka, F.C. (1995): Zimbabwe: Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production and Adaptive Measures for the Agricultural Sector. Interim report on climate change country studies. U.S. Country Studies Program. U.S. Country Studies management Team, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW Washington, Mati, B. M. (2000): The influence of climate change on maize production in the semi-humid–semi-arid areas of Kenya. Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Department of Agricultural Engineering, 62000, Nairobi, Kenya. Meteorological department, (2007): Personal interviews. Head office. Lusaka, Zambia Ministry of Agriculture and Co-peratives, (2004): National Agricultural Policy. Government of the Republic of Zambia. Ministry of Agriculture and Co-peratives, (2005): National Irrigation Plan. Government of the Republic of Zambia.
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Ministry of Agriculture and Co-peratives, (MACO) (2007): Personal Interviews. Head office. Lusaka. Zambia. Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural resources, (2007): National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). Formulation of the national adaptation programme of action on climate change. Government of the Republic of Zambia. UNDP Zambia, Global Environment Facility. Draft report 2
Mitchell, T., and Tanner, T. (2006): adapting to climate change. Challenges and opportunities for the development community http://www.tearfund.org/webdocs/website/Campaigning/policy%20and%20research/Adapting%20to%20climate%20change%20discussion%20paper.pdf Accessed date: 15th January, 2008 Miyanze, B. (2007): Farmer’s perception of climatic change in Southern province. Republic of Zambia. Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives. The department of agriculture. Southern province. IDRC report. Mumba, L.A. (2002): The National Action Program for Combating Desertification and mitigation serious effects of Drought in the context of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Government of the Republic Of Zambia. Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources http://www.unccd.int/actionprogrammes/africa/national/2002/zambia-eng.pdf Date accessed 16th December 2006. Parker, P.M. (2008): C4 PLANTS. Specialty Definition: C4 PLANTS. http://www.websters-online-dictionary.org/C4/C4+plants.html Accessed date: 5th April, 2008. Ramadoss, M., Birch, C.J., Carberry, P.S., and Robertson, M. (2004): Water and high temperature stress effects on maize production. The University of Queensland, Gatton Campus, Lawes, 4343. Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit / CSIRO, Toowoomba, QLD 4350 Saasa, O.S. (2003): Agricultural intensification in Zambia. The role of policies and policy processes. Institute of Economics and Social Research. University of Zambia. Collaborative study between Lund University and The Institute of Economic and Social Research, University of Zambia. On the project: Africa Food Crisis-The relevance of Asian models. SADC, (2006): Southern Africa faces severe food shortages: Millions need urgent humanitarian aid.outhern African Development unity http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:vlYxFE_WEkUJ:www.sadc.int/news/news_details.php%3Fnews_id%3D453+Maize+production+in+Zambia-+History&hl=sv&ct=clnk&cd=30 Date accessed 16th December 2006.
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Sage, R.F., and Kubien, D.S. (2007): The temperature response of C3 and C4 photosynthesis. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, 25 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON M5S3B2 Canada and Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, 10 Bailey Dr., Fredericton, NB, E3B6E1, Canada Scott, G. (1995): Agricultural Transformation in Zambia: Past Experience and Future Prospects. Paper presented at the Workshop on Agricultural Transformation in Africa. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. http://www.aec.msu.edu/fs2/ag_transformation/scott.pdf Accessed date: 16th February, 2008 Smale, M. and Jayne, T.S. (2003): Maize in Eastern and Southern Africa: “Seeds” of Success in Retrospect. Conference Paper No. 3. A paper presented at the InWEnt, IFPRI, NEPAD, CTA conference “Successes in African Agriculture”. Pretoria http://www.ifpri.org/events/conferences/2003/120103/papers/paper3.pdf Accessed date: 2nd April, 2008 Smith, B., and Skinner, M.W. (2002): Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: A typology. Department of Geography, University of Guelph Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G 2W1 http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/Smit_and_Skinner_2002.pdf Accessed date: 15th February, 2008 Stewart, D.W., Dwyer, L. M., and Carrigan, L.L. (1997): Phenological Temperature Response of Maize. Agric. & Agri-Food Canada, Eastern Cereal & Oilseed Res. Ctr., Ctr., Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada. Pioneer Hybrid Int., Plant Breeding Div., Willmar, MN 56201 The IDL Group, (2002): Trends in the Zambian Agriculture Sector. Zambia Agriculture Database. An assessment of trends in the Zambia Agricultural Sector. Department for International Development (DFID). P.O. Box 20, Crewkerne Somerset, TA18 7YW, UK. http://www.odi.org.uk/Food-Security-Forum/docs/Zambia.pdf Accessed date: 2nd February, 2008 Toit, A.S.D., Prinsloo, M.A., Durand, W., and Kiker, G. (2000): Vulnerability of maize production to climate change and adaptation assessment in South Africa. http://www.sanbi.org/countrystudy/Agriculture%20Report.pdf Accessed date: 1st November, 2006 UNEP, (2002): Vital Climate Graphics Africa. Evidence of Climate change and adverse impacts in Africa. http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/01.htm Accessed date: 15th November, 2007 Vitale, A., Tommassi, P. D., Arena, C., Fierro, A., Santo, A. V. D., and Magliulo, V. (2007): Effects of water stress on gas exchange of field grown Zea mays
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L. in Southern Italy: an analysis at canopy and leaf level. Walker N.J and Schulze, R.E (2006): An assessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X01, Scottsville 3209, South Africa. WHO, (2003): Health and global Environmental Change. Series No.1. Methods of assessing human health vulnerability and public health adaptation to climate change. http://www.euro.who.int/document/e81923.pdf Accessed date: 15th December, 2006 White father’s, (2002): Zambia page. The White Fathers, 129 Lichfield Road, Sutton Coldfield, West Midlands. England, B74 2SA. http://dspace.dial.pipex.com/suttonlink/zm_pg.html Accessed date: 9th October, 2008 World Bank, (2003): Supply Response to Adjustment in Low-Income Countries: Lessons from Zambia. Prices number 46. http://wbln0018.worldbank.org/oed/oeddoclib.nsf/d6e15766d406a12d85256808006a000c/ba9fd5cf13402704852567f5005d852c?OpenDocument Accessed date: 16th December 2006. World Bank, (2006): Climate Change and African Agriculture. Policy note number 27. CEEPA. http://www.ceepa.co.za/docs/POLICY%20NOTE%2027.pdf. Accessed date: 16th December 2006. World food Programme, (2006): Food Shortages in Zambia. The facts. http://www.wfp.org/newsroom/in_depth/Africa/sa_zambia020705.asp?section=2&sub_section=2 Date accessed 17th December 2006. Yohe, G., and Tol, R.S.J. (2001): Indicators for Social and Economic Coping Capacity - Moving Toward a Working Definition of Adaptive Capacity. Department of Economics Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities Hamburg, D-20146. Germany. http://www.vulnerabilitynet.org/OPMS/view.php?site=seiproject&bn=seiproject_hotel&key=1140130310 Accessed date: 2nd January, 2007
53
APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: COPPER BELT PROVINCE Figure 1: Maize production (mt) for Copper belt province - 1986/87 - 2004/05
-20,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000
1986/8
7
1988/8
9
1990/9
1
1992/9
3
1994/9
5
1996/9
7
1998/9
9
2000/0
1
2002/0
3
2004/0
5
Years
Prod
uctio
n (m
t)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
Figure 2: Total area (ha) for maize production for Copper belt province - 1986/87 -2004/05
-10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
YEARS
AR
EA (h
a)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
54
Figure 3: Maize yield for the Copper belt province - 1986/87 to 2004/05
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
0.001.002.003.004.00
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
Years
Yiel
d (t
onne
s/ha
)
Figure 4: Rainfall trend for Copper belt province from Ndola and Kafironda stations – 1967/68 - 2004/05
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1967/6
8
1970/7
1
1973/7
4
1976/7
7
1979/8
0
1982/8
3
1985/8
6
1988/8
9
1991/9
2
1994/9
5
1997/9
8
2000/0
1
2003/0
4
Years
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Source: Meteorological station headquarters – Lusaka (2007) data
Figure 5: Seasonal mean temperature for Copper belt province from Ndola station - 1950/51 to 1989/90
252627282930
1950/5
1
1953/5
4
1956/5
7
1959/6
0
1962/6
3
1965/6
6
1968/6
9
1971/7
2
1974/7
5
1977/7
8
1980/8
1
1983/8
4
1986/8
7
1989/9
0
Years
Tem
pera
ture
(Deg
reas
e C
elsiu
s
55
Source: Meteorological department – Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data APPENDIX 2: EASTERN PROVINCE Figure 6: Maize production (mt) for Eastern province - 1986/87 - 2004/05
-100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000
1986/8
7
1988/8
9
1990/9
1
1992/9
3
1994/9
5
1996/9
7
1998/9
9
2000/0
1
2002/0
3
2004/0
5
Years
Prod
uctio
n (m
t)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data Figure 7: Area under cultivation for maize production for Eastern province - 1987/88 – 2004/05
-50,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000
1987/8
8
1989/9
0
1991/9
2
1993/9
4
1995/9
6
1997/9
8
1999/0
0
2001/0
2
2003/0
4
Years
Are
a (h
a)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
56
Figure 8: Yield for Eastern province - 1986/87 to 2004/05
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
YEARS
YIEL
D
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
Figure 9: Rainfall trends for Eastern province as recorded at Chipata Lundazi and Petauke stations for the years 1956/57 - 2002/03
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1956
/57
1959
/60
1962
/63
1965
/66
1968
/69
1971
/72
1974
/75
1977
/78
1980
/81
1983
/84
1986
/87
1989
/90
1992
/93
1995
/96
1998
/99
2001
/02
Years
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Source: Meteorological department – Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
57
Figure 10: Temperature trend for Eastern province as recorded at Chipata, Lundazi and Petauke stations for the years 1956/57 - 1985/86
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
1956/5
7
1959/6
0
1962/6
3
1965/6
6
1968/6
9
1971/7
2
1974/7
5
1977/7
8
1980/8
1
1983/8
4
Years
Tem
pera
ture
(Deg
rees
Cel
sius)
Source: Meteorological department – Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data APPENDIX 3: LUSAKA PROVINCE Figure 11: Maize production (mt) for Lusaka province- 1986/87 - 2004/05
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
Years
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
t) Source: MACO - Head quarters- Lusaka (2007) data
58
Figure 12: Area under cultivation for maize production for Lusaka province - 1986/87 – 2004/05
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
Years
Are
a (h
a)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data Figure 13: Yield for Lusaka province - 1986/87 to 2004/05 Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00
1986
/8
1988
/19
9019
9219
94 619
9820
0257 89 /91 /93 /95
199
/97 /99
2000
/01 /03
2004
/0
Years
Yiel
d (t
onne
s/ha
)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
59
Figure 14: Total rainfall trend for Lusaka province as recorded at various stations for the years 1973/74 - 2004/05
0200400600800
100012001400
1973/7
4
1975/7
6
1977/7
8
1979/8
0
1981/8
2
1983/8
4
1985/8
6
1987/8
8
1989/9
0
1991/9
2
1993/9
4
1995/9
6
1997/9
8
1999/0
0
2001/0
2
2003/0
4
Years
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Source: Meteorological department – Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
Figure 15: Temperature trend for Lusaka province as recorded at Kafue, Lusaka 02 and Mt. Makulu stations for the years 1970/71 - 1991/92
Source: Meteorological department – Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
262728293031
1970/7
1
1972/7
3
1974/7
5
1976/7
7
1978/7
9
1980/8
1
1982/8
3
1984/8
5
1986/8
7
1988/8
9
1990/9
1
Years
Tem
pera
ture
(Deg
rees
C
elci
us)
60
APPENDIX 4: SOUTHERN PROVINCE Figure 16: Maize production (mt) for Southern province - 1986/87 - 2004/05
-100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
Years
Mai
ze p
rodu
ctio
n (m
t)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
Figure 17: Area for maize production for Southern province - 1986/87 –
2003/04
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
Years
Are
a (h
a)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
61
Figure 18: Yield for Southern province - 1986/87 to 2002/03
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
Years
Yiel
d (t
onne
s/ha
)
Source: MACO - Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data Figure 19: Rainfall trend for Southern province as recorded at Choma, Livingstone and Magoye stations - 1978/79 - 2005/06
Source: Meteorological department – Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1978
/79
1980
/81
1982
/83
1984
/85
1986
/87
1988
/89
1990
/91
1992
/93
1994
/95
1996
/97
1998
/99
2000
/01
2002
/03
2004
/05
Years
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
62
Figure 20: Temperature trend for Southern province as recorded at Choma and Livingstone stations for the years 1950/51 - 2002/03
25
27
29
31
33
1950/5
1
1954/5
5
1958/5
9
1962/6
3
1966/6
7
1970/7
1
1974/7
5
1978/7
9
1982/8
3
1986/8
7
1990/9
1
1994/9
5
1998/9
9
2002/0
3
Year
Tem
pera
ture
(Deg
rees
C
elsiu
s)
Source: Meteorological department – Head quarters - Lusaka (2007) data
63
APPENDIX 5: QUESTIONAIRE FOR HEAD OFFICE (MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE) Name of interviewee……………………….. Date…………………… Position……………………………………… Tel: …………………………………………. Cell: …………………… E-mail: ………………………………………
A. INTRODUCTION 1. What are your main objectives in the country? …………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
B. INFORMATION ON CLIMATE 1. What do you know about climate change? ………………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2. Which year did you start hearing of it? …………………………………………… 3. How did you hear about it? ……………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
4. Do you think Zambia is experiencing any climate change?Yes/no a) Why do you say so? ………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
5. From where do you obtain information about expected effects of climate change?.................................................................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
6. What other factors affect maize production in this country?................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
a) What are there effects? Factor Effects on maize production
64
7. What problems do farmers experience in relation to climate? ……………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
For how long have they been experiencing them? ……………………….... ………………………………………………………………………………
8. Before farmers started experiencing climatic problems: a) What loan facilities did the Government used to provide to farmers?
(a) Cash (b) Fertilizer (c) Seeds (d) Others (specify) ……………………………………………….
……………………………………………………………….. b) Why was the Government providing the loan?.............................................
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
c) At what percentage did you used to give the subsidies for fertilizer and seeds? ………………………………………………………………………
d) What percentage of budget allocation did you used to receive from the Government? ……………………………………………………………….
……………………………………………………………………………… e) What percentage (Of the total money received from the Government) did
you used to allocate for different activities and why? Activity Percentage
allocated Reason
Research Extension
f) What kinds of research were you supporting most? ………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
g) What kinds of research were you supporting most specifically on maize
production? ………………………………………………………………... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
h) What kind of extension services were you supporting most? ……………..
65
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
i) Which activities did you used to do together with NGOs to encourage food crop production in the country? ………………........................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………………………..………………..……….……………………………………………………
9. After farmers started experiencing climatic problems: a) What changes did you make to your objectives? ………………………….
……………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………………………………………………………….….…….……………………………………………………………………………..…………………………………………………………
b) What changes did you make to your Agricultural policy? ………………. ……………………………………………………………………………………..……………………………………………………………………….………….….…….……………………………………………………………………………..…………………………………………………………
c) Did the budget allocation from the government increase? Yes/no
If yes; by what percent (%)? ……………………………………………... d) Which crops did you start promoting most and why? …………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
e) What changes did you make to the subsidies given to farmers? …………... …………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………………………...
……………………………………………………………………………… f) What changes did you make to the loan facilities given to farmers? ………
…………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………………………...
……………………………………………………………………………… g) What have you been doing to promote the possibility of storing water for
irrigation purposes? ……………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
h) What changes did you make to the budget allocation for production of different crops? Crops Changes made Maize Other crops
66
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
i) What other activities did you start doing together with NGOs? ………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
j) What extra loan facilities did the Government start providing to farmers? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
k) What changes did you make in budget allocation for different activities? Activity Changes made Research Extension
l) What other extension services did you start supporting most? …………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
m) What kind of research did you start prioritizing? (e.g. new crops, new crop varieties, high yields, drought tolerance, pest resistance, early maturation, irrigation, RHT, etc)…………………………………………. ……………………………………………………………………………
n) What kinds of research did you start supporting most specifically on maize production? ………………………………………………………………... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
o) Which extra activities did you start doing together with NGOs to promote food crop production? …………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………………………………………..……….……………………………………………………
67
p) Generally, what adjustments did you make in your programs and activities to ensure that there is enough food for every citizen as the nation is experiencing the problem of climate change? ………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
10. Now that you are aware of climate change: a) What further adjustments are you planning to make to your objectives?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
b) What further adjustments are you planning to make to your Agricultural policy?………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
c) Which crops are you planning to start promoting most and why?……… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
d) How much are you planning to be allocating for production of different crops and why?
Crops Amount to allocate
Reasons
Maize Other crops
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
e) What kind of activities are planning to be supporting most? …………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
f) What plans do you have on the possibility of storing water for irrigation purposes? ……………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
68
g) What activities are you planning to be doing together with NGOs so as to handle the problem of food insecurity in the country? ……………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
h) Supposing climate continues to change in a way that maize production will not be possible, what future plans do you have of feeding the citizens? ………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
i) Which crops could be suitable to substitute maize? …………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
11. What major benefits (or advantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?................................................................................................................. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
12. What are the major costs (or disadvantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?...................................................................................... …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
13. Which, in your opinion, is the major obstacle to implementing necessary measures to minimize (or benefit) from the effects of climate change in your jurisdiction? ……………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
ENDING 1. Do you have any other information that you can add to what we have already
discussed? ………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2. Do you have any comment or question on our discussion? ………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
ASK FOR THE FOLLOWING DOCUMENTS: • ACTION PLANS • LAND USE POLICY • NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL POLICY • ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS
69
APPENDIX 6: QUESTIONAIRE FOR PROVINCIAL AGRICULTURAL OFFICERS Province…………………………………………. Date …………… Name of interviewee……………………………. Position…………………………………………… Tel: ………………………………………………. Cell: …………….. E-mail: …………………………………………… GENERAL
1. What crops do farmers grow in this province?
1---------------------------------------- 2---------------------------------------- 3---------------------------------------- 4---------------------------------------- 5---------------------------------------- 6----------------------------------------
2. Which crop is grown as the staple food in this province? ………………………… 3. What loan facilities does the Government provide to farmers? (Tick what is
appropriate) (a) Cash (b) Fertilizer (c) Seeds (d) Others (specify)…………………………………………………
a) How do you provide the loan? (To individual farmers or group of farmers)
Why? ………………………………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) Which year did you start giving the farmers? …………………………….. What made you start giving the farmers the loan? ………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
c) Are there any subsidies provided to farmers for fertilizer and seeds? Yes/No
If yes; at what percentage are the subsidies given? (e.g. farmers pay 40% and Government pays 60%) ………………… ………………………………………………………………………
PRODUCTION AND CLIMATE 1. What do you know about climate change? …………………………………….
70
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2. Which year did you start hearing of it?............................................................... 3. How did you hear about it? …………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
4. From where do you obtain information about expected effects of climate
change in your area of operation?...................................................................... …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
5. Do you think you are experiencing climate change in this province? Yes/no a) Why do you say so?..................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
6. What is the main source of water for crop production in this province? (a) Rainfall (b) irrigation 7. Do all farmers have irrigation facilities in this province? Yes/no …………… ……………………………………………………………………………….
a) For those who do not have, what are you doing to help them have the Facilities? ……………………………………………………. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
8. What problems do farmers experience in relation to climate? …………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) For how long have they been experiencing these problems? …….. …………………………………………………………………….
9. Before farmers started experiencing climatic problems: a) How much loan money did you used to give them ………….
………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) How many bags of fertilizer did you used to give them as loan? Number of bags For Maize production
For production of Other crops
71
c) How many bags of Seeds did you used to give to farmers as loan? Crops Number of bags of seeds Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
d) At what percentage were you giving them the subsidies? Percentage (%) For Maize production
For production of Other crops
e) What crops were you advising them to grow and why? Crops Reasons for growing them 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
f) What activities were you doing in conjunction with NGOs to help
farmers have enough food? ………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
g) Comparing maize and other crops, which crops where you
supporting most................................................................................ ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Why?..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
8. After farmers started experiencing climatic problems: a) What new crops and crop species did you start advising farmers to grow
and why? Crops
Crop species Reasons for advising farmers to grow
72
Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
b) What changes did you make in the loan given to farmers?………...........
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
c) What changes did you make in the subsidies given to farmers? ………...
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
d) Generally, what extra loan facilities did you start providing to farmers? Extra loan facilities For Maize production
For production of Other crops
e) What did you do to promote irrigation facilities in the province? …….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
f) What new activities did you introduce in your programs to help farmers have enough food? …………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
g) What activities did you start doing in conjunction with NGOs to help farmers have enough food? …………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
h) Comparing maize and other crops, which crops did you start supporting most?........................................................................................................
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. Why?....................................................................................................................................................................................................................
73
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
9. Supposing farmers continue to experience climatic problems? a) What activities are you planning to include in your programs to help them
have food?.................................................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
10. What major benefits (or advantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?......................................................................................... …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
11. What are the major costs (or disadvantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?...................................................................................... …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
12. Which, in your opinion, is the major obstacle to implementing necessary
measures to minimize (or benefit) from the effects of climate change in your area of operation/jurisdiction? ……………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
13. Apart from climate climatic conditions, what other factors affect maize production in this province and what are there effects?
Factor Effect on maize production
ENDING 3. Do you have any other information that you can add to what we have already
discussed? ………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
4. Do you have any comment or question on our discussion? ………………………
74
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Get the following information
The average yearly production for different crops (tones) for the years 1955/56 to 2006/07? Total land (ha) for crop production for the years 1955/56 to 2006/
Projected production figures (tones) for different crops for the next five (5) years Reasons for the projected figures? Total land (ha) to be used for different crops in the next five years?
Reasons for the projected figures ASK FOR THE FOLLOWING DOCUMENTS:
• ACTION PLANS • LAND USE POLICY • NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL POLICY • ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS
APPENDIX 7: QUESTIONAIRE FOR THE PROVINCIAL SENIOR EXTENSION OFFICER Province…………………………………………. Date ……………… Name of interviewee……………………………. Position…………………………………………… Tel: ……………………………………………….. Cell: ……………… E-mail: ……………………………………………
1. What extension services do you provide to farmers? Crops Extension services
On Maize
On Other crops
2. Why do you provide such services?
Crops Reasons for providing the services On Maize
75
On Other crops
3. What has been your priorities when providing services on: Item Reasons for advising farmers to grow them 1. new crops 2. new crop varieties 3. drought tolerant 4. pest resistant 5. early maturing 6. high yielding 7. irrigation 8. RHT 9. improved fallow 10. conservation tillage
(Tick where appropriate. Indicate order of priorities) 4. How do you provide the services? (e.g. Visiting farmers’ fields and advising them
individually, advising farmers in group) Crops Methods of providing the services
On Maize
On Other crops
5. Of what qualifications are the extension officers you employ? ………………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
6. What crops and crop species have you been advising farmers to grow and why? Crops species Reasons for advising farmers to grow Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
76
7. Which languages are you using to disseminate information to farmers? ………………………………………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………… 8. How much funding do you receive from the Government for extension work?
…………………………………………………………………………………. 9. What problems do farmers experience in relation to climate in this province?
………………………………………………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………………………….
10. For how long have they been experiencing these problems? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
11. How does production of different crops get affected by the changes in rainfall pattern? Crops Effects on different crops Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
12. How does the production of different crops get affected when too much rainfall
is received? Crops Effects on different crops Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
13. How does the production of different crops get affected when too little rainfall is
received? Crops Effects on different crops Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
77
14. Before farmers started experiencing climatic conditions:
a) Which month did they used to start planting different crops? Crops Month the farmers started planting Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
b) Which month did they used to start harvesting different crops?
Crops Month the farmers started planting Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
15. After farmers started experiencing these problems:
a) Which month did they start planting different crops? Crops Month the farmers started planting Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
b) Which month did they start harvesting different crops?
Crops Month the farmers started planting Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
c) What changes did you make in the way of proving the services? ……..
78
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
d) What changes did you make in the crops and crop species you started advising farmers to grow and why?
Crops species Reasons for advising farmers to grow Maize Other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
e) Did you consider changing your priorities of services? Yes /No
If yes, what where the new priories? Item Reasons for advising farmers to grow them 1. new crops 2. new crop varieties 3. drought tolerant 4. pest resistant 5. early maturing 6. high yielding 7. irrigation 8. RHT 9. improved fallow 10. conservation tillage
(Tick where appropriate. Indicate order of priorities)
f) Did the funding from the Government increase or decrease? ………… By how much? …………………………………………………….
g) Did you consider employing extra extension workers? Yes/no Of what qualifications? ……………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………
h) What other extension services did you start providing to farmers and why?
Other extension services Reasons for providing them On Maize production
79
On production of Other crops
i) Generally, what changes did you make in your program to promote food
crop production? ………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
16. Now that you are fully aware the climatic problems farmers are experiencing: a) What changes are you planning to make in the way of proving the services
to ensure that farmers are helped to have food? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………What other extension services do you plan to start providing to farmers? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 1. What do you know about climate change? …………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
1. Which year did you start hearing of it? ………………………………………. 2. How did you hear about it? ……………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
3. Do you think you are experiencing climate change in this province? Yes/no a) Why do you say so? ………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
4. From where do you obtain information about expected effects of climate change in your area of operation?..................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
5. How much knowledge do farmers have about climate change? ……………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
80
6. What are you doing to make the farmers have full knowledge of climate change problem? …………………………………………………………........ ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
7. How are you disseminating information on climate change to farmers? (e.g. through TV, News papers, etc)………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
8. Which languages are you using to disseminate information to farmers on climate change? ……………………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
9. Now that you are fully aware of the climatic problems: b) What activities are you planning to include in your program to ensure that
more and accurate information on climate change reaches the farmers? … ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
c) What other extension services do you plan to start providing to farmers? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
d) What major benefits (or advantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?...................................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
e) What are the major costs (or disadvantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?.................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
f) Which, in your opinion, is the major obstacle to implementing necessary measures to minimize (or benefit) from the effects of climate change in your area of operation/jurisdiction? ………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
ENDING
81
5. Do you have any other information that you can add to what we have already discussed? …………………………………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
6. Do you have any comment or question on our discussion? ……………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
ASK FOR THE FOLLOWING DOCUMENTS: • DOCUMENTS SHOWING ALL ACTIVITES • ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS
Thank the interviewee
APPENDIX 8: QUESTIONAIRE FOR THE PROVINCIAL SENIOR RESEARCH OFFICER Province…………………………………… Date ……………. Name of interviewee……………………… Position……………………………………. Tel: ………………………………………… Cell: …………….. E-mail: …………………………………….
1. What kind of research do you conduct in this province generally?.......................... …………………......................................................................................................
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2. What problems do you experience in relation to climate in this
province?……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
a) For how long have you been experiencing these problems?
……………………………………………………………………….. 1. Before you became aware and started experiencing these climatic problems:
a) What kind of research were you conducting generally? ………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) What kind of research were you conducting specifically on different crops?
82
Crops Types of research conducted On maize
On other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
c) How were you conducting your research? (e.g. with farmers in their fields)
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
d) What crops did you find to have been growing well in this province? …………………………………………………………………
........................................................................................................................
........................................................................................................................
........................................................................................................................ What characteristics do they have that made them suitable to grow in this province? ………………………………………………….
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
e) What maize species did you find to have been growing well in this Province? ………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………….....................
What characteristics do they have that made them suitable to grow Well? …………………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
f) What kind of research were you conducting on the possibility of storing
water for irrigation purposes? ……………………………………………. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
g) How much research funds did you used to receive from the government? (Amount or percentage)…………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………..
h) What other private organizations used to provide money for research? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Of what qualifications were the researchers you used to employ? ……… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
83
i) What kind of research were you doing with NGOs? ……………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2. After you became aware and started experiencing climatic problems: a) What kind of research did you start conducting generally? …………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) Was this your own initiative or directive from government?……….……………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
c) What kind of research did you start conducting specifically on different crops?
Crops Types of research conducted On maize
On other crops 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
d) What crops did you find to have been growing well in this
Province under the current climatic conditions? …………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
What characteristics do they have that made them suitable to grow in this province? ………………………………………………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………What maize species did you find to have been growing well in this
Province under the current climatic conditions? ………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
What characteristics do they have that made them suitable to grow Well? ………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
84
j) Was there any change in research priorities because of changes in climatic conditions? Yes/no
If yes; please specify the changes made ……………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
k) What kind of research did you start conducting on the possibility of storing water for irrigation purposes? ……………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
l) Did the government funding of agricultural research increased, decreased, and remained unchanged? ……………………………………………….
If increased; by how much (amount or percentage) ………………
If decreased; by how much (amount or percentage)……………… m) How much funding did you start receiving from the Government to
research on different crops? (Amount or percentage) Crops Amount or percentage On maize On other crops
n) What other private organizations started providing money for research?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
o) Did you consider employing extra researchers? Yes /No Of what qualifications are the researchers you started employing? ……………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………… p) What kind of research did you start conducting with NGOs? …………….
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
q) Generally, what kind of adjustments did you make in your research program to ensure that better services are provided? (e.g, employing more people, buying new equipment)…………..………………………………. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
3. How do you think maize production will be affected by the climate in the next ten? (Ask for the model that has been used to project the effects) ………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
85
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
3. What problems do you have in research section? ……………………………….. …………………………………………………………………………………..
………………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………….…………………. 4. Now that you are fully aware of the problem of climatic problems :
a) How are you planning to be conducting research? (e.g. on the fields with farmers) …………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) What crops are you planning to concentrate on? ………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Why? ……………………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
c) What other issues (crop characteristics, irrigation, Rain water Harvesting Technology (RHT), etc.) are you planning to concentrate on? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Why? …………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
d) What kind of research are you planning to be conducting with NGOs? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
e) Generally, what further adjustments are you planning to make in your research program to ensure that better services are provided especially with the problem of climate change at hand? (e.g, employing more people, buying new equipment)................................................................................. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 5. What do you know about climate change? ……………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………….…………………. 6. Which year did you start hearing of it? ………………………………………….
86
7. How did you hear about it? ……………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………….…………………. 8. From where do you obtain information about expected effects of climate change
in your area of operation?......................…………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
9. Do you think you are experiencing climate change in this province? Yes/no b) Why do you say so? …………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………….………………….
c) Which year did you start experiencing it? …………………………... ……………………………………………………………………………
10. What major benefits (or advantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?................................................................................................................. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
11. What are the major costs (or disadvantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?................................................................................................... …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
12. Which, in your opinion, is the major obstacle to implementing necessary measures to minimize (or benefit) from the effects of climate change in your area of operation/jurisdiction? …………………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
ENDING 7. Do you have any other information that you can add to what we have already
discussed? …………………………………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………….. ……………………………………………………………….………………….
8. Do you have any comment or question on our discussion? ……………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………….. …………………………………………………………………………………..
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• DOCUMENTS SHOWING ALL ACTIVITES • ANY OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS
Thank the interviewee
APPENDIX 9: QUESTIONAIRE FOR PROVINCIAL SENIOR METEOROLOGICAL OFFICERS Province……………………………………. Name of interviewee……………………….. Date……………. Position……………………………………… Tel: …………………………………………. Cell: …………….. E-mail: ………………………………………
1. What are your objectives in this province?............................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2. How many stations do you have in the province?..................................................... GENERAL For each of the following provinces: Copper belt, Central, Southern, Eastern and Lusaka, get the following information on temperature and rainfall:
1. The monthly average figures for the years 1955 to 2006. 2. The highest figures recorded for the years 1955 to 2006?
Dates recorded in each year from 1955 to 2006? 3. The lowest figures recorded for the years 1955 to 2006?
Dates recorded in each year 1955 to 2006? 4. Dates rainfall has been starting for the years 1955 to 2006? 5. Dates rainfall has been ending for the years 1955 to 2006? 6. On average, number of rainy days per year the province has been having
rainfall for the years 1955 to 2006. 7. Projected temperature figures for the next ten years 8. Projected rainfall figures for the next ten years
Rainfall 1. What abnormalities have you been observing for the years 1955 to 2006 in this
province in terms of: a) Rainfall pattern? …………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………….
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What causes them?....................................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………For how long have you been observing the abnormalities? ……………….. ………………………………………………………………………………
b) Amount of rains received?.......................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………What causes them?......................................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………For how long have you been observing the abnormalities? ……………….. ………………………………………………………………………………
c) Number of rainy days? …………………………………………………. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………What causes them?...........................................................................................
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………For how long have you been observing the abnormalities? ……………….. ………………………………………………………………………………
d) Any other abnormalities (Drought, dry spells, flooding, etc) …………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
e) What causes them?......................................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………For how long have you been observing the abnormalities? ……………….. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....
Temperature 1. What abnormalities have you been observing for the years 1955 to 2006 in this
province? ………………………………………………………………………......
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a) What causes them? ………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) For how long have you been observing the abnormalities? ……………….. ………………………………………………………………………………
Climate change information
1. Do you think you are experience climate change in this province? Yes/no ……………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………… Why do you say so? ……………………………………………………………….. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………If you are experiencing climate change in the province:
a) How are you planning to combat the problem? ………………………...... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
b) What major benefits (or advantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?...................................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………What are the major costs (or disadvantages) are you seeing with the change in climatic conditions?.................................................................... ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
c) Which, in your opinion, is the major obstacle to implementing necessary measures to minimize (or benefit) from the effects of climate change in your area of operation/jurisdiction? …………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
ENDING 9. Do you have any other information that you can add to what we have already
discussed? ………………………………………………………………………
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………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………Do you have any comment or question on our discussion? …………………… ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
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Thank the interviewee
