EEA State of the Environment Report 2010: Europe in transition towards a sustainable 2050?

Hans Eerens,TFIAM- Bilthoven -10 June 2009

Contributors:Contributors:Contributors:Contributors:

EEA: Stephane Isoard, Anke Lükewille, Martin Adams, Andre Jol, Andreas Barkman. Aphrodite Morelatoe

PBL: Hans Eerens, Paul Ruyssenaars, Jelle van Minnen, Guus Velders, Jos Olivier, Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Joost-jan Schrander, Frank de Leeuw

UBA-Dessau : Benno Hain, Thomas Voigt, Martin Cassel-Gintz, Inke Schauser

UBA-Vienna: Sabine Göttlicher, Andrea Prutsch, Sabine McCallum, Bernd Gugele

NILU : Kevin Barrett

Auth : Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Zissis Samaras, Fotios

Barmpas, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Liana Kalognomou

AEA-T : Mike Harley

REC: Maria Khovanskaia

JRC-Ispra: Frank Dentener, Rita van Dingen

Contents SOEOR 2010

Systems Themes

Atmosphere Atmospheric pollution

Climate change

Aquatic Fresh water

Marine

Terrestrial Land / Soil

Biodiversity

Human Human lifestylesInnovation

Climat

ech

ange

Susta

inable

cons

umpt

ion

Susta

inable

prod

uctio

n

Enviro

nmen

t and

hea

lth

Biodive

rsity

and

ecos

yste

ms

Socio-

econ

omic

trend

s

Global

trade

Inte

rnal

mar

ket

Policie

s

Lega

lEco

nom

icTec

hnica

lGov

erna

nce

6th EAP priorities Key drivers Policy Responses

S I P D R

Link to Part A

Link to Part C

Themes matrix

Questions

1. How do we want the environment in 2050 to look like? What are long term objectives for air pollution policy?

2. How much emission reduction is required? 3. What would an ambitious climate policy

contribute to that goal?4. What steps have to be taken?

5. How to incorporate aspirational targets in SOER2010?

Vision 2050: Air quality, climate, energy security

Climate:� Global collaboration for effective green house gas abatement including the

emerging large players� leading to an 80 per cent chance of limiting global warming to 20C, eventually,

on average � Eighty per cent less greenhouse gases emitted from the EU by 2050 –

domestically !

Air Quality:� Deposition on ecosystems at or below sustainable levels� Air Quality improved to levels below WHO recommended values

Energy security:� Mix of technologies in energy production, consumption and land use based on

currently identifiable technologies

� Drastically improved diversity of primary energy sources and origins.

Current developments: Acidifying and particle formation eq emissions

0

500

1 000

1 500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

kt

Aci

dif

yin

g

Po

ten

tia

l e

q

Ind

ex

19

90

=1

00

EEA-32 + WB Countries - past emissions

EEA-32 + WB Countrie 2020 baseline projections

EEA-32 + WB Countrie 2020 MRR projections

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020k

t P

art

icu

late

Fo

rma

tio

n e

q

Ind

ex

19

90

=1

00

EEA-32 + WB - past emissions (weighted sum of Nox, Sox, NH3)

EEA-32 + WB - past emissions (PM10)

EEA-32 + WB Countries 2020 baseline projections

EEA-32 + WB Countries 2020 MRR projections

GAINS Baseline for NECD plus Climate and Energy Package (-20% GHG, 20 % share of renewables+ JI/CDM at 30 Euro/t CO2+ full renewable trade on top of baseline), February 08. Current control policies. They include: - 'Current legislation' in all sectors – Emission limit values on combustion sources in industry and power sector from the IPPC Directive (less strict interpretation) - Euro VI on heavy-duty vehicles - Ceilings from the NEC Directive., MRR: maximum technical reductions options

preparing

SoER2010,

Copenhagen

22 April

2009, Frank

de Leeuw

p

Air Quality Impacts

Health: � focus on ozone and

PM

� Ecosystems:� eutrophication &

acidification� ozone (CSI05)

preparing

SoER2010,

Copenhagen

22 April

2009, Frank

de Leeuw

p

Air Quality - State

� State (regional, urban): � focus on ozone, PM, NOx� increasing hemispheric contributions� Changing composition ?

Rural stations, indexed concentration changes

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

CO

SO2

NO2

PM10

ozone

NOx

OX

Urban stations, indexed concentration changes

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

CO

SO2

NO2

PM10

ozone

NOx

OX

preparing

SoER2010,

Copenhagen

22 April

2009, Frank

de Leeuw

p

Air Quality - State

� Population exposure� Distance to target, discussion

on benefits when meeting PM2.5 targets/limits

� source apportionment(traffic,……)

0

10

20

30

40

50

BG

R

HU

N

POL

CZ

E

RO

U

SVK

NL

D

CY

P

GR

C

BE

L

ML

T

PRT

ITA

LT

U

FIN

ESP

DN

K

LV

A

GB

R

AU

T

DE

U

FRA

EST

LU

X

SWE

SVN

NO

R

LIE

ISL

IRL

perc

enta

ge

LV compliance AEI reduction target

preparing

SoER2010,

Copenhagen

22 April

2009, Frank

de Leeuw

p

Air Quality Outlook

� N Hemispheric long term: 2050 (-2100)using global SRM (from JRC) impact of 4 source regions (EU, US, India China) on NH ozone concentrations; estimate health impacts on population in large cities. Additional input global outlooks (GEO4, OECD) & from co-benefit studies

� Europe: medium term: 2020-2030material from CAFE, NEC (CIAM); discussion on state (O3, PM), impacts, benefits (physical or monetary endpoints?)

preparing

SoER2010,

Copenhagen

22 April

2009, Frank

de Leeuw

p

Air Quality & Climate Change

� linked by pollutant (O3, PM and their precursors)� linked by sources

Climate change Impact in Europe

4.2.1 General Europe: Temperature

� Europe has warmed more than the global average. The annual average temperature for the European land area up to 2007 was 1.2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Eight of the12 years between 1996 and 2007 were among the 12 warmest years since 1850.

(Trend: well recorded)

� The annual average temperature is projected to rise this century by 1–5.5 °C (best estimate) with the largest warming over eastern and northern Europe in winter, and over south-western and Mediterranean Europe in summer.

(Projections: well established)

4.2.1 General Europe: Precipitation

� Annual precipitation trends in the 20th century showed an increase in northern Europe (10–40 %) and a decrease in some parts of southern Europe (up to 20 %). Mean winter precipitation has increased in most of western and northern Europe (20 to 40 %), whereas southern Europe and parts of central Europe were characterized by drier winters.(Trend: well recorded)

� Models project an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe, whereas many parts of Europe may experience dryer summers. But there are uncertainties in the magnitude and geographical details of the changes.

(Projections: well established)

4.2.3 Northern Europe (boreal region)Forest growth

� In much of continental Europe, the majority of forests are now growing faster than in the early 20th century. Periods of drought and warm winters are increasing pest populations and weakening forests.(Several drivers)

� A changing climate will favour certain species in some forest locations, while making conditions worse for others, leading to substantial shifts in vegetation distribution. The distribution and phenology of other plant and animal species (both pests and pollinators) are likely to change, leading to further alterations in competitive dynamics in forests that will be difficult to predict.(Simulation with A1B; period 2070-2100)

4.2.3 Northern Europe (boreal region)Crop yield variability

� Climate and its variability are largely responsible for variations in crop suitability and productivity in Europe. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, e.g. the summer heat of 2003 and the spring drought of 2007.(Difficult to separate climate effects)

� As a consequence of climatic change, such events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, and crop yields to become more variable. Changes in farming practices and land management can act as risk-mitigating measures.(+2°C-positive; +4°C-adverse)

4.2.4 Central- and eastern EuropeForest Stability

� The hot summer of 2003 in Europe is estimated to have led to EUR 10 billion in economic losses to farming, livestock and forestry from the combined effects of drought, heat stress and fire. Climate-related increases in crop yields are expected mainl y in northern Europe (by about 10 %) with reductions (of 10 % or more) in the Mediterranean and the sout h-west Balkans.

� There are likely to be changes in forest growth wit h climate change, and related economic consequences, though projections of future net changes in Europe are uncertain.

4.2.5 Mountain Areas

Distribution of Plant Species

� Climate change, in particular milder winters, is responsible for the observed northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species. Mountain ecosystems in many parts of Europe are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species are driven out of their ranges.

(Trend: well recorded)

� By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction.

(Projections: several runs with severalscenarios)

4.2.7 The Mediterranean RegionHeat-Waves

� Increasing temperatures are likely to increase the number of heat-related deaths. Mortality risk increases by between 0.2 and 5.5 % for every 1 °C increase in temperature above a location-specific threshold. More than 70 000 excess deaths were reported from 12 European countries in the hot summer of 2003 (June to September). Long heat waves (more than 5 days) have an impact 1.5 to 5 times greater than shorter events.(Trend: well recorded ?)

� 86 000 net extra deaths per year are projected for the EU Member States for a high-emissions scenario with a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C in 2071–2100 relative to 1961–1990.(Projection: results from PESETA with regard to + 3°C)

4.2.7 The Mediterranean RegionForest Fire Danger

� In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather is expected and, as a consequence, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons.

(Trend: Computed on basis of meteorological fire danger indices)

� Climate change will increase the fire potential during summer months, especially in southern and central Europe.(Projection: HIRHAM-model runs for the SRES-A2-Scenario 2071-2100)

22Vision for 2050 - transport

Low carbon and robust European transport systems th at support a dynamic and competitive European economy

� Emissions from the transport sector are reduced by 60-80% in 2050 relative to 2005, including aviation and shipping

� European transport systems are robust (= opposite to vulnerable), efficient and reliable.

23A route towards low carbon transport

Low -carbonvehicles

volume/shift

Roadpassenger

biofuels

efficiency

Aviation

biofuels

efficiency

volume/shift

Roadfreight

biofuels

navigation

100

CO2 emission, index 1990=100

2050

20 Low -carbon

Low -carbonvehicles

Roadpassenger

Biofuels

Efficiency

Aviation

Biofuels

Efficiency

volume/shift

Roadfreight

Biofuels

Efficiency

Inland

100

CO2

1990 2050

230

20 Low -carbon

Factor 12

Factor 20-25

Factor 10

Factor 6

Factor 7-8

volume/shift

24Trade off: reduction potential and uncertainty

0% Emission reduction potential

Emissionreduction potential

High degree of uncertainty(effects, costs, potential)

Low degree of uncertainty50%

25%

Current hybrid vehicles

Plug-in hybrid car

Full electricvehicle

Green logistics

Biomass-to-liquid jet fuels

Current commercial jet biofuels

1st generation biofuels (biodiesel, ethanol)

2st generation biofuels (biodiesel, ethanol)

Land use planning

Fuel cell hydrogen road vehicles

Technical energy efficiency measures shipping (e.g. skysail)

Heavy oil biofuel substitutes for shipping

Coal-to liquied biofuels

3rd generation biofuels (algea etc.)

100%

BtL biofuels with CCS

Speed reductionsshipping, aviation

Technical energy efficiency measures aviation

Fuel cells shipping, aviation

ETS aviationETS maritime transport

EC policy development

priority

Wrong turnNo regretstart soon

R&D

CO2 taxdifferentation

25A new transport agenda - recommendations

� Develop a vision for a low carbon transport sector addressing risks, vulnerability, security and resilience

� Build on what exists� Energy efficiency regulations, provide flexibility between vehicle and

fuel targets (e.g. allowing trade of credits), aviation and maritime transport in effective ETS systems

� Make better use of money � Focus on TEN-T priority networks, proven economic rationale

� Wrong turn � LDV’s and personal cars are not the best application for biofuels,

focus R&D and market aids on advanced biodiesel (ships) and biokerosine.

� Reducing emissions from aviation and shipping is key; requires early action and global policy strategies

� Investing in the electricity grid of 2050

�

� Distinguishing interim solutions from long-term strategies.

� price signals under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme will not be sufficient to trigger the development of new systems as needed by 2050.

� securing energy supply on the basis of coal without CCS is a dead end.

� Therefore, an additional policy framework is necessary to guide investments, demand policy and research.

At a strategic level, a number common challenges between the three themes appear

� Slow changes are key, choices in the next 5 years affect the reality in 2050

� Interim solutions are sometimes a dead time and sometimes a bridge to 2050

� Addressing risks requires a battle against uniformity, diversity is key for all three themes

� Wiggle room to manoeuvre with natural resources will be precious� EU’s leverage on the rest of the world is significant, but time-bound� Consumption and public acceptance are key issues, need to find a right

role for EU� Physical infrastructure and networks requires EU role