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I-/q 7o!J.- 9 (pCDtI /02- aq 1- c...1 ql7 r)"'lJi b iiP EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat,"

EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

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Page 1: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

I-q 7oJ-9 (pCDtI 02-

Pb-I4~F- aq 1- c1 ql7 r)lJi b iiP

EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY

Dr Howard Tuckman

Florida Stat (Jlliv~riit)

FCONo~tc A~ATYCIC

1 Sckground

Ind~nesi h1S ext)eriencert Bi~ni ~i C~ ~hi ft~ in i ~s econOTic structure in the 1f1st ~el vels 1 e 1 ~~T~ the ~l~wth in Gr~S9 n~estic ~lduct frnr) ~~pd ~n 1973 prices he TistUres in eAch F t~fI cCl]Tln~ ~T tfI yeprs represent flercent~~es M~te th~t tp TltITrti n ~ totRl Gn~ dlllotlrI t ~~riculture ~~ F~en Fr I trj 30 rIue pTiTRri 1 v t~ the fact tht thi ~ectrlr -Ff1i 1 euro eergt pace ~lith the TnUfRcturinp Tlini n2 pnrt cn~~TUcti nn sectors ~hp driving f~rce f~r thi~ ch~n2p h~~ een t~p incremiddot ~ T1odernizlti ~n ~f the TTf1nuf~ctuTi np iner develort and cnstructi~n i ndu~tr e~ ~ Tle 1 j~ thp icreaslr1 Iv~lRi J tv ~f F(IIP~ 1Zf1 pxch~npp rp~prTP~

r~suJ ring rrlJtT (ffr i 1 prlcP incrpse~

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middot M-mufrctu 1 ~ ~ Q t L middot middot Electricil etc ~ bull c f J

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~ middot middot GrCss )Testic Prduct 1) bull 11l1l bull 1 7 ItG] Rr Vlte L Gnp~ ~ laquo00 ~ 7 J RlJA

Because I ~iven vlUTp ~ coi ~I1 exorrfs n~Tl t1V~ truch larger v~lurre of iTTPClrts the eql~nsn f ~ndnp~il ~ Car itAl ~se has leen ~cctplisheti ~~hut I te~uc~i n of ptimiddotte cdfIsUTptinn Ret~ep 0 =-nri t TltiT~~p Cn~UTIshytj~middot ~~F risen ftrm t 7 c ~T)O ~hie th ~p-nshyrr-en f IsUpti n ~n-i gtnss 1(1Test C CM ttl ~11flti n h~p inCrE~sed telt she (the It~Pt ~rT c

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An ~c~ease in t~e c~nitR1 h~se nf ~ c~untTv i~ nften rlemiddotd as a prerequi si tEl t of ts succpssFtt1 flC~ ( develoTenmiddot TC~ethpr i th ~ renurt-f ~n n re1 i ~ncp n the R~ricultural sectnr it su~~ps~s thnt Tnnnnp~~ ~ enterin~ 2 pert (Ii tr Sf1p~~t ~rp r~~i n ~rfttJ fh~ it experienced in the sixttes ~nd e~rv ~pvpntips r~~ ~re~1 at hCut 14 per VPIr frnTT n~_~ Inn ~t ~~ ~pr vear frnrr 19~-1r7l ~ecent pxpprience ~U~2eqts ~ 2t~tth rRte nf ~hout -rr per ve~r Rv tmiddot~V rtf CfntTIst T1Iul ~t N1

h~s heen grrt~ing It R r~tp ~f ~~fut ~ ~ ve~r

These rIRngeS in the ec(n~ie setgtnp ~ve pp1 unpl7pnshylv dis~ri~uted ~~(ng thp rlifferent reen~ nF Tnnnp~~ Much of the incretse tn Gnr M~S prnnucen n the Fl~sfrv Rnd ~i1 indu~tries ~~ch Ire he~vi]v e~nCElntl~~en ~n ~~ prfv4-~r~ - ~i~u ~~st V~]i~~nt~n ~ut~e~~~ eu~~ps4 Aeer ~fclul-t cIn Trian J~v~ The ~egrElg~tp rn n of ~hp~p

siX mvincfgtI is rnugh lv est~tEln t h~vf QTT v I I7ertge Ite ~ 1 froT 1 orq_ Tn cflntrnSf ~JP er~t r~te f~r the reT~ining 4 provinces P~S IL ~ i n T~V~ it ~7RS EIlttiTC1ted ~s ( per veRr hese fofeutps su~ep~~ thCt de l(l~ent h~s epn laTgp] I Cf nen t I Fpt prvinc 3 ~_th cTTe sp 1 J nver tn the cpn~rl 2nlTfrrrent-in rtVl T1der the gtvenrent tirn vPIr T1~n ~PTIptl TTT) I nrgr~ f re~-fnal npITPlrTT1ent ic TlrnTlspn J(I

invmiddothmiddotes thp rnvp-pnt nF ftTilies tn thp u~pr ~~ann~ t tv~id p~tenti~l TInO~Mer ~hrrra2~S n the n~n~ Pri-r t- f e ~rticul Itinn nf In (f~ ci~1 tr~n~~ 11 r ~r(lerl~ decignen tn pnenur~gp the ~~~~inn r ~~ ~~~ ~c 1 nn1 f11i Ii ~ I ve~r the ri2h er i~p 1 evp 1 q 1rpIT~ n~ in the uter islands have heen ineFfpc~~ITEI in induenq ) net flc-middot1 r-f vn lunt=rv ~igr=lnt s frftT T~Va Tn pnc(UT)p nQ ~ore l~hrers tn ~i2rtte tn the nevel1ine r~~iflnq erlucclti--n ill ornv~ tn he ~n iTIrt~nt npVp1pn~ ~

~rp Ic~elerlt~n in Tnnnest~s grnwt r~tp ~n~ ~p uneven cidence ~f eCtnCic nevp] pr-ent 2 ITP ri ~f t sever1 ~r~l~s for its tr~inin~ Inri enuc~t~(n n~foffUshy nc middottile there is current1 nn l~r shflr1e p ~n the ~uterj sl1nds it is 11 treJ v th~t iF thp TPl1ui rf~ T~rp ~f ~r~~t ~F thp ~uter isl~nrf~ ~xcee~ thp n~~u~~1 r~t-p ~ ~rut ~ per - 1r I s1rtal2e c nu1 d neve TI (CUTT~t-est middot~tr ~f the exnected ~nnu~l g~~th r~te ~ueqp~~ ~n pxpecte grImiddott~ rlte Cf _~ I ver ~hic iTIp~ t-t~tshy~orerc ill hClve to ~e 1TT1 nrtpn FrlW ~~e 1 PCI 111

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gtt f07th ateas of Indonesia in fJitl V luge nUtnbers Howevet Indonesi~ cUttentlv h~s ov~~ ~~~ ~fF~eTet Vmgu~~es ~n1 tl-tp hutrien is nn the sclno sv~fE t tp~ch those frnro diverse hnct~rnun~ thE ~ti on1 1 InvutJp A~ the tr1nSTi~t~t5 on f)Togrpl groS in TT(rtnncp thp lRn~ulgp tt~inin~ TttgrT lill 11~UTE 2l~Itpr i~(rtnp th~ it h~s t~ ~~te

Another conseClUEnct of the n~T ~ev~ CfIT~nt n~ttpTT1C inv~les In ncrp1~p tn the nPTT1nd ~Cr st~~ 1 1 fOri 1 1l-tr The s1lt11 c f r11na~(gts Inn 1drr-inictr~tCr~ ~r ui ninC7 tTtdesrnel of C~lTUTtcltinns sTlPci~l t~ Inn en~ neEts are neces Sl~V tt TTepoundt TnonesI IS nEVpound 1 NTTEnt lPC11 p~t c

~TlTl-ers rn Ictu~ ITpnfTer reoui rprents Ire nnt ptsv tn C1e hv Iut tne studmiddot ~uegectEri thlt In 1 nnu- (tTmiddott h III e r- rnp ttNlrl tr~nsltte int(l In Itmul1 Tr-nTOPT reaur~~ent f ~nn~ nr(l~pcein~Ils ~~nnn tpchnic1~

anr ~C )~n sTdlled p(Tlrer~ 1tlITlet~ Cf thie tVTP IrP - u~ulllv Jt hest hl11-T1l~ pstf~It~~ hecnu~p n~ t~e inherent difficulties inllreri irI 1intdnt nrciuct riptl~~ t~ ~~npwe est~~~te~ pn~ hec~u~~ f t~P riiFficu1~~p~ fnlvp~ fn ~-esc~tn~ hnl hjring T-T-(11 f riT1P in I -=-i -r-pret ecnncv NnnethelEss t~P~euro ~-( p11rp~ rt sug~est sev~~~] i~~ttlnt insght~ ~ir~~ ~he ~hpy ~rp tTClnsIlt or] nt pduclti n11 on~ (IT trlinnl rp(HlrP1pr-c i 1 Jnnerc 1tIt tbe eclucClti ntl cvcteuroY i 0 nt TTrltCrIt cnnug tcchnici~n n~ s~illen ttlmiddotelC hi~ io IlH~v 1 reflecti~ ~ theuro hi~h dt~Tut lIte in t~e nriItv s c l c l n r ~ the f CI crt -- 1 t]-l ~ s E 7h n sf- tl ~ t1 1 C (11 ~ le tte -r- euroduc t 1 n t the sec In rflt v cc h M1 s Inri in Jti(ns f f-jheuror eilucltinn rlther tf-rI nt v~( L~n~l training centers 71e unne~ ~ecln~Irv ~c~~c educate students ~l~t~t exclusive1 f~r h1~hpr eriucl14~ ~nd tend to c ncpntr~t-euro their enereuro~ ~ th ~p n~pTI-ring ~--T unirsitv t~inine Perhtns pc I c n~pupnp the llst h~ ~ (r thp stur1cnts hn te1Tinte t~fO-(r trt-~~~ ~re nct ~middotell suited t fiJ1 t-rp te(l-5c i ln ~nrl ST_ ~ ed wrl-er p-sitirns CTlpned UT v the ~r(Tmiddott~ ~c t-oP e~~+- cr-ve ~nd fnre~trv innustrie~

~cmi tle un1lrersties tprd t trlin Srunetamp tn ~Tt=ilit~c 1 v t=antentid Iv rp11teri tn th~p npp~prl ~ l develning tndu~triec Tn n~rt thc is ~ tptor-t~ln c- r t-e Ii-iter T1uer ~ (H~ciTl1inec tImiddotnl~p -t-- TndCne~il na )~ t~( ti e h cn~t n~ ctu~v I~r~~ Qt~ ~ nI--Ilmiddot 115- re~ect~ I c t~pnt ~v tl-p P~urltl

~ect~ t the trllnine tf In e1ip -tnlC pnt elcc

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This is often ~ ~~~rRcter5ttc of ht2h~r educ~tlon in develin~ countries

Of equRl c~ncern is the unevpnn~~ ~F t~e ~u~ltv -f eoucRtion prnvided trithin Tndnesf rI T 1 p unrf~T-F~n~-cing is a qURlity of the educ~ti~n~l ~vst~ thr~U2~ut tndonesiR t the 5i tuttion is toorse 1n SCInP re~s ~ t~e countr1 than in ~thers The Tndnne~i~n ~c~nl gV~t~ ~~ scattered ~cross 3nnn islRnd~ cnverin~ ~n Rr~~ nF ~h~ut 19snnnn Km A stuny nf tnrfne~irln ~rnvinct~1 enuc~shytion systPTTls hv James John~tone prnrtne~ sPer~ s~ Pt~ into pr~Yinci~l difFerences ~ever~ ~rp cite~ herp~ ~1) Usi n~ ~ I index to TTle~ sure t~e rel~t5 VP ~Q ~ncp n~ qURli fied t setTi -qupJ i fieri t ~nn unaup1 i Fi~n teQ~hpT~ the stu~v finds v~lues of n~~ 0~1 ~n~ n~~ Fnr ~ulawesi ~elRtau Bait Rnd J~~~ ~engph An ~nun indic~~e that all te~chers Rr~ qu~lFie~ Tn cnntr~~tJ ~lues nf n nl Rnd n7 ~re oht~tnpn F~r ~pn~middotulu KaliTTPltrln Rnd Irirm ~TRva () TTsing ~ TTeQsure rF thp proPrlrtiCn of stdents ~l1r~ retTqtn in the priucqtf nn sv~tPT bull rr~1stne nds th~t Yngva1artp ~ T~L-Rrt~ hRe ~ ht2h~T ptCpormiddotmiddotion of c~ntinuptinns thRn the nther nrnincec Th~o l~~est values are fnr rri~n TRVR Jus~ eng2ar~ ~iT1YT and l ~iOtlr~ A ~irri1~r c~nclusilln ie repch~rl i f ~n index designed t~ mepsure the rel~ti~e ~u~i~hiitv II~ l1sses ft crim1ing ne 9 enucti nn i~ usprl () fmiddoth(n n indicat~r ~ ~suring the ~ver~~e n~hpr nF vpprs p ~tudent entering a p~rticul~r level ~F eriuc~tin c~ p~shypct t~ cpend at select grR~e levels 1middots us~n tn C~Tlprp differences rI~rg provinces ~~rken ~ifFrence~ Q2p i n errerge ~~~en t~gether t~ese pnn ~ther inntc~tr~ ~ug~~st R ~~rked difference in the auqlirv nF educ~tin 1Tdl~i)le in the urlan cnd rur~l ~rp~s of TnlnEci~

~ Upgr~dng the nu~litv ~f FducRtinn in Tnrlnnegi~

Most studir - F the educ~ti~n~1 SVt~ hpl1f1 ~clnIlTshyledged tJt the relativelvlNl level rlF eXTl~niture~ rn educpti~n has h~d a neg~tve efFect rln the nu~ttv I~ educ~ti~n in 1nd(lne~1~ ~~~nq the ~RV e~~pe~ th~t hi~ een ct~ted f1) Ahut eo f the nr~~tv schl~ ~n ~lrr~st h~lf the sec0nd~rv schln1 ~u1d~n~~ ne~rle~ r~~~ir a t t~e tiTTle 0 oj the stun T t~i ren Funns TmiddoteTP ~Ifl1 1 ~ for ~his pur~nse ( nnlv ~b~ut ~~ nf the secnnn~rv schltl h~d lir~iec rmiddot) ~ Tiri~~nre~d Ipc tr nf te~f~III~ in the n~ti(ln~l Ipngu~~~ e~~eci~llv in t~e cience~ ~n~ technical areas ~akes it necegs~rv for students to ta~e extensive n~tes In t1e tonS andmiddot SlT111 cities 0f the less devel~ped Dr~inces in ver ~ IF the priTTarv

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schools the children questioned had nn texthonk ~t all at the se~nndarv level nnlv in nne third ~~ the sch~~l~ did eveT~nE h1ve q hflrlt of iIP ldnd (I Tn thp rTE ur~anize~ prflvincps the ~ption~l Asses~ent ~~und pn avera~e of ~R children in each 2T~dp CA~~T~~= thp fi~ure dlopppd tr- I~ in the rural nT~vincp~ n~A~itp this fact 1A- ~f Rll scbo~l~ in the urh~i~en ~r~ViCPA and 5h in the state schnnls hpn heen unahle tr ~cce~t all ~ppllcants ~ostlv for l~c~ nf s~~cp (~) Tn ~~ ~F the schrolr in the pronrer prflvincP~f ~vErcrninp Atm~shyrentlv 4ntErfered with thE ~tudents wfr~ ~nn ~~h teacher bull

Of sDed~l cflncern is tJe Cluesttn IIf tu~1i~ishyc~tinns ~f the te~chers Tn ~n e~~luati ~ t~e rp~ult~ Cf thE Nlt=t1 nal As~esSTTent TIeehv sU2~est-pn th~t lehppn ~n ef) ~ f f e ~ri1Tarv schflo 1 tpacher~ hap ei theT ~u CPG e(iUeltin ~nd tr=lin1n~ rr the eaptl1l1pnt- The situ~ti~n ~=IS wor~e At the secrndarv lpvel wherE clsp t )n~ of the teachers had nfl ne2ree at all pnn ~anv n~ th~ rest ~prr teachin~ ~t the sa~e levEl t-hev h~d ~ChiEvp~ in thlir ~rl sch(ltlillg At the secno1rv lElrE V J ~middotEe tau~Jt in a cnte~t middotJere (wer crl~ ~f thE tepcrETs middotarp qU1l i fi e~

~h~ ~~PCsed ~r~ject will tnv~lve ~pvpr~l ~rqT~~shyratic ch~n2e~ de~igned to un~r~de th~ nu~li~v ~ Trl~np~i~n enuc~ti~n ~nd t nclE~~e the c~untrvs C~~~tv t-~ r~~c~ its l~rge ~nd f1r flun~ n~~ul~t~n ~s~pnti~lv this ~~ 1 ~ he ~cc~nlishen thrru~h thrpflt rp1 ~te ~ct1 rl H p~ I) An i~structi0n~ lHrlin tr~inn~ nr~~r~~ Fnr t-e~c~pr~ designeci tC ~llrnJ those desipnctpd ~~ seTi -aual ~prl ~s u l1lified l to Urqr~rJe t-heil ~Irlls ( An

pen jl1l secrndnTv eductirn tr2r~ ~T t-h~~e ~t the juninl secnd~rv scr~~l level ~nd (1) A ~r~r~~ F

n~n-flTT11 fduc~ti nn des-[gnen t UT2r~rle t-he vlri JS ~ bull c

lC7els If the l~steninR ~uoience

4 7h rffectiveness ~f Alternative ~echn~l(1g~~ ~r ~istnce Te~chi~R

~n n~v7inq ~ or1ect c nFieur~t~n n~ thp tv~P envisi~ned 1 7m- it is u~e~ul t- c~n~iri-=r the re1~t~H~ effectimiddotmiddotene~~ nf the ~ltern~tp Er-lucJtn~l ef~ Recent Te~p~lch h~s f~cuseri n~p v~r4nus re~ ~F ~hp rldi rrtl t-er ~eni~ in 1rlTTt-jn~ Hct~ncp 1e~tn4n~ Tn ~ rev e- ~c lJdi oTiects (c~~Inv ~Ent-i np ~-fp iT

roles for radio in delleloptrent~middot rOtrp~rrltile dat~ ~re avail~hle in ~ rpcent sturlv ~v ~p~ et~l ~~ in ~ interestj ng hClOl v ~chr~fTITT ~he~E ~nn ~ther ~~urli p ~ shed SO(gt light nn tnp iTrrt~n(t (If rrlrH ~~ 1 ~ CClst hut cOTparltiveJ v effectivE EducrlH(In~1 t(l~1 P-ut virtu~llv 11 ~f thp studis ~UQgP~t th~t visu1 ~u~~1p-1tentation) hethEr in thE (tTT ft Tnrl~f~~ tP~thnl~ r mietlgr~pn aids t~ I necpss~v sUtlTll ~pnf tn the i~shytructiC 1 llclr~f7p

Recp~t interest h~s F~eu~ed ~n tne usP n~ C~g~Ettp~ and nh~n~r~ph reocnrds tlS In altern~tile tn tnp hign capit~l ensts ot instJling ~ r~di0 ~ci1itv ~pcent wCrt- hv B~t( c n~~ shn~1fl th~t e~ch (1 thE TTpcii ~ n~ ~ d ~pshyrent cldmiddotmiddot1ntle mci tn1t v+lc h 5 tne 1 e~~t c nQtl v lo 1 1 depend unn thp size and distrihuti~n ~ thp ~udiencr tc he reachedmiddotr- hp ~~tes study tpnns tn ~Ir n~t-Hmiddotmiddotshytion~ radiG fnr its inex~ensivenEs in tE~chin2 1~r2p Iudiencps its ahilitv tn re~ch ~n entirE Tl~u1tirn a~ri ~t~ iedi~cv In the llttpr rEv~rri rlrHn i~ uepul r r latin cursp Cf study t current eVEMts ~~ ~ V( ic Ie thrnur which irrPtTI VPTpnts in inctrucfi fln cln he intrCldted relatively r~Tlidlv Inri ~s ~ vphicle t~rnU~h middotmiddot~h icr t~C -~v fppdhflc 1 1 n in stUc turE c~n hp ~ ntT~urpci r 1 the nrgativr ide q tes nttps th~t rEsp~rc ~U2~P~f~ tr1f r~di~ is M diffitult TTedilIT t(l le~rn frTT th~t Ie ers lack cCntrrl rver the PICE (If fI r~rii r irOT~T ~nd t~ev ~~~ c~nstrMined t l~stEn ~t A ~ixp~ tiTTP

A si~ilar Mn~1vsis could ~e TT~dE r E~cn (1F thp pltenti~l deliv v veticles envlsi~ned hv TtT ~ut gi VPT1

the l~r~e nlIT~er ~f nutputs envisi~ned in ~hi~ ~~~er this is i~o~~sihle The ~nint tn ~e TTI~e herE i~ t~~t t~p ~cst ~fficiert tec~nCl(lgv pAck~2e ~ill v~rv n(1th ncr~~ pr()ject~ 1nd regie-ns Phlt is nee ned is crlreful pi 1 t project using Srerll di fferent del iverv TTndps 11 e rl hv ~ cre~ul CIJuti(ln cf tnE efEctivEMe~S flf ep(~ at thr cnclu~in It is virtu~llv iTTpnssihle tn iud2E tp effectieness f Tt(pV~ deli1erv str~te2ip~ ~t thi~ Iin~ in ti-~ bull ~ he next secti~n w~ an~lvse the n~ture nF

~icAn~nv Fr ~dimiddots ~le in n~velnt7ent Ci~ CfT~fPshyie s f~r lOse (Ttastnlt~n cllev r tliuc~t fln~ lev~J~l7ent n) c 1Trr ~1 Hi1l Medl Tittle ~e+fa (PlChinp~nmiddot 4CarlpTv ~ Cducti=nll )eve1trent 104 )

middot~tes middotfTtiT1S fr Mei~ T)pliv~-rv in Q T-rTttnn e nst 7ffectieneS5 c ni -ta~cp TP~CtM~ (T~T c ~CC0 l d tn

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the ecnnmric returns tn each prn~raft

~ The Private Returns fr~ the Pr~p~~ed Pr~1ect

Ideally we would li~e to both identify ~nd qu~ntiFy the returns t~ the three ~rojects ~here ~~e sever~l reas~ns why this i9 not feasihle at present These c~n be illustrated fairly well usin~ the teacher trainin2 activity as ~ case in p~int The n~her of te~cher~ wh~se s~tll~ will he up~rad2d and the ch~n~e in te~cher skill levels resulttn~ er~~ the prnnsen pr~1ect c~nn~~ lJe estirr~~ed t IT vat lah le dC1t ~ Yet ~u~nd tqti ve dC1tC1 are necessary prerequisites fnr henefit QuantiFic~tt~n While the ~attonal Asses~ent pr~vided sever~l suhjectv~y dete~ined rreasures nf teacher c~~petency in 10 7n the sa~plin~ pr~cedures userl in this ~tudv aTe nnt cnnducive to ~eneraliz~tion at a ngtionll level 1 ire~se the ahse~fgt f middotmiddot~itative data nn the qhi1ttv ~F ~ rfrm such as thnl pr~pnsed by TVPK t~ ch~n~e ~kill levels ~eqns thMt nn ~uantit~tive hase exists Fnr esti~atinp e effects ~f teacher trqining nn the skills aCQu~rfgtn hJ students

An ~ddittrnal c~mplicat~n is ntr~duced hv the eed t~ istinguish he~ween pntential ~nn ~ctud1 n~lt1-Cipllti~n ill t1e three pr~graTTs Given the USf f the PALAPA satell J tes and C1n effective set nf 2r~unn st~~i~n tle D~te~til audience cusistl rf ~11 scI (11 teqchers T QUC11ificati~ns ~elnw thse ultTT~tel~judge~ C1deauate ~v the Mi~i strv Plt it seerrs clear that the actuC11 eneficiaries vd il he a frC1ction ~f the ptential Lac of inf~~atin rn pr~~raTT availahilitv the presence nf per---ns wit h ~ultiole jChs the rresencf nf SrTTe oers~n~ WkQ d nt speu the nationl lC1n~ua~e and re1~ted fact~rs are all li~elv t~ cnntri~ute t~ li~tted ~r~2r~~ usage at least in the first few years ~f the pr~jec~ Once ~~in hrwe~er the lac~ of prior experience ~1th a dis ~nc~ training p~2ra~ precludes a reas~na~le ~uesstiTTate of h~w many persons ~ill qctuallv he re~chp~

A t~tT~ c(nsiderati~n is als~ rele~~nt in the c~se ~f the fir5t and third C1T~nents (t tle tlr~ject (te~cJfgtT u-r~ad ig and nn - f~rCll educqt i ~n) Tn TT~S~ c~n~i c studies ne educ~ttnq1 svsteTTs chqngps ~n enuc~~i~q tratni nf Ire usuall v eauqtpo bull Ji th chmp-es n tMrni ngs and itlc~TTes tn the case e the ~lTent Trn 1ect thi c i c n~t p~ssihle TM~se whC u2r~de ~heir s~ils AS ~e~cJfgtr~ Ti 1 nCtt he ~ilJen a certifictti~n f th~l e~netencv th~t c~n he used t r~ise their calqreQ tns~e~~ th~

BtS r AVAIUBLE COP

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

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~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

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Page 2: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

FCONo~tc A~ATYCIC

1 Sckground

Ind~nesi h1S ext)eriencert Bi~ni ~i C~ ~hi ft~ in i ~s econOTic structure in the 1f1st ~el vels 1 e 1 ~~T~ the ~l~wth in Gr~S9 n~estic ~lduct frnr) ~~pd ~n 1973 prices he TistUres in eAch F t~fI cCl]Tln~ ~T tfI yeprs represent flercent~~es M~te th~t tp TltITrti n ~ totRl Gn~ dlllotlrI t ~~riculture ~~ F~en Fr I trj 30 rIue pTiTRri 1 v t~ the fact tht thi ~ectrlr -Ff1i 1 euro eergt pace ~lith the TnUfRcturinp Tlini n2 pnrt cn~~TUcti nn sectors ~hp driving f~rce f~r thi~ ch~n2p h~~ een t~p incremiddot ~ T1odernizlti ~n ~f the TTf1nuf~ctuTi np iner develort and cnstructi~n i ndu~tr e~ ~ Tle 1 j~ thp icreaslr1 Iv~lRi J tv ~f F(IIP~ 1Zf1 pxch~npp rp~prTP~

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~ middot middot GrCss )Testic Prduct 1) bull 11l1l bull 1 7 ItG] Rr Vlte L Gnp~ ~ laquo00 ~ 7 J RlJA

Because I ~iven vlUTp ~ coi ~I1 exorrfs n~Tl t1V~ truch larger v~lurre of iTTPClrts the eql~nsn f ~ndnp~il ~ Car itAl ~se has leen ~cctplisheti ~~hut I te~uc~i n of ptimiddotte cdfIsUTptinn Ret~ep 0 =-nri t TltiT~~p Cn~UTIshytj~middot ~~F risen ftrm t 7 c ~T)O ~hie th ~p-nshyrr-en f IsUpti n ~n-i gtnss 1(1Test C CM ttl ~11flti n h~p inCrE~sed telt she (the It~Pt ~rT c

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An ~c~ease in t~e c~nitR1 h~se nf ~ c~untTv i~ nften rlemiddotd as a prerequi si tEl t of ts succpssFtt1 flC~ ( develoTenmiddot TC~ethpr i th ~ renurt-f ~n n re1 i ~ncp n the R~ricultural sectnr it su~~ps~s thnt Tnnnnp~~ ~ enterin~ 2 pert (Ii tr Sf1p~~t ~rp r~~i n ~rfttJ fh~ it experienced in the sixttes ~nd e~rv ~pvpntips r~~ ~re~1 at hCut 14 per VPIr frnTT n~_~ Inn ~t ~~ ~pr vear frnrr 19~-1r7l ~ecent pxpprience ~U~2eqts ~ 2t~tth rRte nf ~hout -rr per ve~r Rv tmiddot~V rtf CfntTIst T1Iul ~t N1

h~s heen grrt~ing It R r~tp ~f ~~fut ~ ~ ve~r

These rIRngeS in the ec(n~ie setgtnp ~ve pp1 unpl7pnshylv dis~ri~uted ~~(ng thp rlifferent reen~ nF Tnnnp~~ Much of the incretse tn Gnr M~S prnnucen n the Fl~sfrv Rnd ~i1 indu~tries ~~ch Ire he~vi]v e~nCElntl~~en ~n ~~ prfv4-~r~ - ~i~u ~~st V~]i~~nt~n ~ut~e~~~ eu~~ps4 Aeer ~fclul-t cIn Trian J~v~ The ~egrElg~tp rn n of ~hp~p

siX mvincfgtI is rnugh lv est~tEln t h~vf QTT v I I7ertge Ite ~ 1 froT 1 orq_ Tn cflntrnSf ~JP er~t r~te f~r the reT~ining 4 provinces P~S IL ~ i n T~V~ it ~7RS EIlttiTC1ted ~s ( per veRr hese fofeutps su~ep~~ thCt de l(l~ent h~s epn laTgp] I Cf nen t I Fpt prvinc 3 ~_th cTTe sp 1 J nver tn the cpn~rl 2nlTfrrrent-in rtVl T1der the gtvenrent tirn vPIr T1~n ~PTIptl TTT) I nrgr~ f re~-fnal npITPlrTT1ent ic TlrnTlspn J(I

invmiddothmiddotes thp rnvp-pnt nF ftTilies tn thp u~pr ~~ann~ t tv~id p~tenti~l TInO~Mer ~hrrra2~S n the n~n~ Pri-r t- f e ~rticul Itinn nf In (f~ ci~1 tr~n~~ 11 r ~r(lerl~ decignen tn pnenur~gp the ~~~~inn r ~~ ~~~ ~c 1 nn1 f11i Ii ~ I ve~r the ri2h er i~p 1 evp 1 q 1rpIT~ n~ in the uter islands have heen ineFfpc~~ITEI in induenq ) net flc-middot1 r-f vn lunt=rv ~igr=lnt s frftT T~Va Tn pnc(UT)p nQ ~ore l~hrers tn ~i2rtte tn the nevel1ine r~~iflnq erlucclti--n ill ornv~ tn he ~n iTIrt~nt npVp1pn~ ~

~rp Ic~elerlt~n in Tnnnest~s grnwt r~tp ~n~ ~p uneven cidence ~f eCtnCic nevp] pr-ent 2 ITP ri ~f t sever1 ~r~l~s for its tr~inin~ Inri enuc~t~(n n~foffUshy nc middottile there is current1 nn l~r shflr1e p ~n the ~uterj sl1nds it is 11 treJ v th~t iF thp TPl1ui rf~ T~rp ~f ~r~~t ~F thp ~uter isl~nrf~ ~xcee~ thp n~~u~~1 r~t-p ~ ~rut ~ per - 1r I s1rtal2e c nu1 d neve TI (CUTT~t-est middot~tr ~f the exnected ~nnu~l g~~th r~te ~ueqp~~ ~n pxpecte grImiddott~ rlte Cf _~ I ver ~hic iTIp~ t-t~tshy~orerc ill hClve to ~e 1TT1 nrtpn FrlW ~~e 1 PCI 111

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gtt f07th ateas of Indonesia in fJitl V luge nUtnbers Howevet Indonesi~ cUttentlv h~s ov~~ ~~~ ~fF~eTet Vmgu~~es ~n1 tl-tp hutrien is nn the sclno sv~fE t tp~ch those frnro diverse hnct~rnun~ thE ~ti on1 1 InvutJp A~ the tr1nSTi~t~t5 on f)Togrpl groS in TT(rtnncp thp lRn~ulgp tt~inin~ TttgrT lill 11~UTE 2l~Itpr i~(rtnp th~ it h~s t~ ~~te

Another conseClUEnct of the n~T ~ev~ CfIT~nt n~ttpTT1C inv~les In ncrp1~p tn the nPTT1nd ~Cr st~~ 1 1 fOri 1 1l-tr The s1lt11 c f r11na~(gts Inn 1drr-inictr~tCr~ ~r ui ninC7 tTtdesrnel of C~lTUTtcltinns sTlPci~l t~ Inn en~ neEts are neces Sl~V tt TTepoundt TnonesI IS nEVpound 1 NTTEnt lPC11 p~t c

~TlTl-ers rn Ictu~ ITpnfTer reoui rprents Ire nnt ptsv tn C1e hv Iut tne studmiddot ~uegectEri thlt In 1 nnu- (tTmiddott h III e r- rnp ttNlrl tr~nsltte int(l In Itmul1 Tr-nTOPT reaur~~ent f ~nn~ nr(l~pcein~Ils ~~nnn tpchnic1~

anr ~C )~n sTdlled p(Tlrer~ 1tlITlet~ Cf thie tVTP IrP - u~ulllv Jt hest hl11-T1l~ pstf~It~~ hecnu~p n~ t~e inherent difficulties inllreri irI 1intdnt nrciuct riptl~~ t~ ~~npwe est~~~te~ pn~ hec~u~~ f t~P riiFficu1~~p~ fnlvp~ fn ~-esc~tn~ hnl hjring T-T-(11 f riT1P in I -=-i -r-pret ecnncv NnnethelEss t~P~euro ~-( p11rp~ rt sug~est sev~~~] i~~ttlnt insght~ ~ir~~ ~he ~hpy ~rp tTClnsIlt or] nt pduclti n11 on~ (IT trlinnl rp(HlrP1pr-c i 1 Jnnerc 1tIt tbe eclucClti ntl cvcteuroY i 0 nt TTrltCrIt cnnug tcchnici~n n~ s~illen ttlmiddotelC hi~ io IlH~v 1 reflecti~ ~ theuro hi~h dt~Tut lIte in t~e nriItv s c l c l n r ~ the f CI crt -- 1 t]-l ~ s E 7h n sf- tl ~ t1 1 C (11 ~ le tte -r- euroduc t 1 n t the sec In rflt v cc h M1 s Inri in Jti(ns f f-jheuror eilucltinn rlther tf-rI nt v~( L~n~l training centers 71e unne~ ~ecln~Irv ~c~~c educate students ~l~t~t exclusive1 f~r h1~hpr eriucl14~ ~nd tend to c ncpntr~t-euro their enereuro~ ~ th ~p n~pTI-ring ~--T unirsitv t~inine Perhtns pc I c n~pupnp the llst h~ ~ (r thp stur1cnts hn te1Tinte t~fO-(r trt-~~~ ~re nct ~middotell suited t fiJ1 t-rp te(l-5c i ln ~nrl ST_ ~ ed wrl-er p-sitirns CTlpned UT v the ~r(Tmiddott~ ~c t-oP e~~+- cr-ve ~nd fnre~trv innustrie~

~cmi tle un1lrersties tprd t trlin Srunetamp tn ~Tt=ilit~c 1 v t=antentid Iv rp11teri tn th~p npp~prl ~ l develning tndu~triec Tn n~rt thc is ~ tptor-t~ln c- r t-e Ii-iter T1uer ~ (H~ciTl1inec tImiddotnl~p -t-- TndCne~il na )~ t~( ti e h cn~t n~ ctu~v I~r~~ Qt~ ~ nI--Ilmiddot 115- re~ect~ I c t~pnt ~v tl-p P~urltl

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This is often ~ ~~~rRcter5ttc of ht2h~r educ~tlon in develin~ countries

Of equRl c~ncern is the unevpnn~~ ~F t~e ~u~ltv -f eoucRtion prnvided trithin Tndnesf rI T 1 p unrf~T-F~n~-cing is a qURlity of the educ~ti~n~l ~vst~ thr~U2~ut tndonesiR t the 5i tuttion is toorse 1n SCInP re~s ~ t~e countr1 than in ~thers The Tndnne~i~n ~c~nl gV~t~ ~~ scattered ~cross 3nnn islRnd~ cnverin~ ~n Rr~~ nF ~h~ut 19snnnn Km A stuny nf tnrfne~irln ~rnvinct~1 enuc~shytion systPTTls hv James John~tone prnrtne~ sPer~ s~ Pt~ into pr~Yinci~l difFerences ~ever~ ~rp cite~ herp~ ~1) Usi n~ ~ I index to TTle~ sure t~e rel~t5 VP ~Q ~ncp n~ qURli fied t setTi -qupJ i fieri t ~nn unaup1 i Fi~n teQ~hpT~ the stu~v finds v~lues of n~~ 0~1 ~n~ n~~ Fnr ~ulawesi ~elRtau Bait Rnd J~~~ ~engph An ~nun indic~~e that all te~chers Rr~ qu~lFie~ Tn cnntr~~tJ ~lues nf n nl Rnd n7 ~re oht~tnpn F~r ~pn~middotulu KaliTTPltrln Rnd Irirm ~TRva () TTsing ~ TTeQsure rF thp proPrlrtiCn of stdents ~l1r~ retTqtn in the priucqtf nn sv~tPT bull rr~1stne nds th~t Yngva1artp ~ T~L-Rrt~ hRe ~ ht2h~T ptCpormiddotmiddotion of c~ntinuptinns thRn the nther nrnincec Th~o l~~est values are fnr rri~n TRVR Jus~ eng2ar~ ~iT1YT and l ~iOtlr~ A ~irri1~r c~nclusilln ie repch~rl i f ~n index designed t~ mepsure the rel~ti~e ~u~i~hiitv II~ l1sses ft crim1ing ne 9 enucti nn i~ usprl () fmiddoth(n n indicat~r ~ ~suring the ~ver~~e n~hpr nF vpprs p ~tudent entering a p~rticul~r level ~F eriuc~tin c~ p~shypct t~ cpend at select grR~e levels 1middots us~n tn C~Tlprp differences rI~rg provinces ~~rken ~ifFrence~ Q2p i n errerge ~~~en t~gether t~ese pnn ~ther inntc~tr~ ~ug~~st R ~~rked difference in the auqlirv nF educ~tin 1Tdl~i)le in the urlan cnd rur~l ~rp~s of TnlnEci~

~ Upgr~dng the nu~litv ~f FducRtinn in Tnrlnnegi~

Most studir - F the educ~ti~n~1 SVt~ hpl1f1 ~clnIlTshyledged tJt the relativelvlNl level rlF eXTl~niture~ rn educpti~n has h~d a neg~tve efFect rln the nu~ttv I~ educ~ti~n in 1nd(lne~1~ ~~~nq the ~RV e~~pe~ th~t hi~ een ct~ted f1) Ahut eo f the nr~~tv schl~ ~n ~lrr~st h~lf the sec0nd~rv schln1 ~u1d~n~~ ne~rle~ r~~~ir a t t~e tiTTle 0 oj the stun T t~i ren Funns TmiddoteTP ~Ifl1 1 ~ for ~his pur~nse ( nnlv ~b~ut ~~ nf the secnnn~rv schltl h~d lir~iec rmiddot) ~ Tiri~~nre~d Ipc tr nf te~f~III~ in the n~ti(ln~l Ipngu~~~ e~~eci~llv in t~e cience~ ~n~ technical areas ~akes it necegs~rv for students to ta~e extensive n~tes In t1e tonS andmiddot SlT111 cities 0f the less devel~ped Dr~inces in ver ~ IF the priTTarv

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schools the children questioned had nn texthonk ~t all at the se~nndarv level nnlv in nne third ~~ the sch~~l~ did eveT~nE h1ve q hflrlt of iIP ldnd (I Tn thp rTE ur~anize~ prflvincps the ~ption~l Asses~ent ~~und pn avera~e of ~R children in each 2T~dp CA~~T~~= thp fi~ure dlopppd tr- I~ in the rural nT~vincp~ n~A~itp this fact 1A- ~f Rll scbo~l~ in the urh~i~en ~r~ViCPA and 5h in the state schnnls hpn heen unahle tr ~cce~t all ~ppllcants ~ostlv for l~c~ nf s~~cp (~) Tn ~~ ~F the schrolr in the pronrer prflvincP~f ~vErcrninp Atm~shyrentlv 4ntErfered with thE ~tudents wfr~ ~nn ~~h teacher bull

Of sDed~l cflncern is tJe Cluesttn IIf tu~1i~ishyc~tinns ~f the te~chers Tn ~n e~~luati ~ t~e rp~ult~ Cf thE Nlt=t1 nal As~esSTTent TIeehv sU2~est-pn th~t lehppn ~n ef) ~ f f e ~ri1Tarv schflo 1 tpacher~ hap ei theT ~u CPG e(iUeltin ~nd tr=lin1n~ rr the eaptl1l1pnt- The situ~ti~n ~=IS wor~e At the secrndarv lpvel wherE clsp t )n~ of the teachers had nfl ne2ree at all pnn ~anv n~ th~ rest ~prr teachin~ ~t the sa~e levEl t-hev h~d ~ChiEvp~ in thlir ~rl sch(ltlillg At the secno1rv lElrE V J ~middotEe tau~Jt in a cnte~t middotJere (wer crl~ ~f thE tepcrETs middotarp qU1l i fi e~

~h~ ~~PCsed ~r~ject will tnv~lve ~pvpr~l ~rqT~~shyratic ch~n2e~ de~igned to un~r~de th~ nu~li~v ~ Trl~np~i~n enuc~ti~n ~nd t nclE~~e the c~untrvs C~~~tv t-~ r~~c~ its l~rge ~nd f1r flun~ n~~ul~t~n ~s~pnti~lv this ~~ 1 ~ he ~cc~nlishen thrru~h thrpflt rp1 ~te ~ct1 rl H p~ I) An i~structi0n~ lHrlin tr~inn~ nr~~r~~ Fnr t-e~c~pr~ designeci tC ~llrnJ those desipnctpd ~~ seTi -aual ~prl ~s u l1lified l to Urqr~rJe t-heil ~Irlls ( An

pen jl1l secrndnTv eductirn tr2r~ ~T t-h~~e ~t the juninl secnd~rv scr~~l level ~nd (1) A ~r~r~~ F

n~n-flTT11 fduc~ti nn des-[gnen t UT2r~rle t-he vlri JS ~ bull c

lC7els If the l~steninR ~uoience

4 7h rffectiveness ~f Alternative ~echn~l(1g~~ ~r ~istnce Te~chi~R

~n n~v7inq ~ or1ect c nFieur~t~n n~ thp tv~P envisi~ned 1 7m- it is u~e~ul t- c~n~iri-=r the re1~t~H~ effectimiddotmiddotene~~ nf the ~ltern~tp Er-lucJtn~l ef~ Recent Te~p~lch h~s f~cuseri n~p v~r4nus re~ ~F ~hp rldi rrtl t-er ~eni~ in 1rlTTt-jn~ Hct~ncp 1e~tn4n~ Tn ~ rev e- ~c lJdi oTiects (c~~Inv ~Ent-i np ~-fp iT

roles for radio in delleloptrent~middot rOtrp~rrltile dat~ ~re avail~hle in ~ rpcent sturlv ~v ~p~ et~l ~~ in ~ interestj ng hClOl v ~chr~fTITT ~he~E ~nn ~ther ~~urli p ~ shed SO(gt light nn tnp iTrrt~n(t (If rrlrH ~~ 1 ~ CClst hut cOTparltiveJ v effectivE EducrlH(In~1 t(l~1 P-ut virtu~llv 11 ~f thp studis ~UQgP~t th~t visu1 ~u~~1p-1tentation) hethEr in thE (tTT ft Tnrl~f~~ tP~thnl~ r mietlgr~pn aids t~ I necpss~v sUtlTll ~pnf tn the i~shytructiC 1 llclr~f7p

Recp~t interest h~s F~eu~ed ~n tne usP n~ C~g~Ettp~ and nh~n~r~ph reocnrds tlS In altern~tile tn tnp hign capit~l ensts ot instJling ~ r~di0 ~ci1itv ~pcent wCrt- hv B~t( c n~~ shn~1fl th~t e~ch (1 thE TTpcii ~ n~ ~ d ~pshyrent cldmiddotmiddot1ntle mci tn1t v+lc h 5 tne 1 e~~t c nQtl v lo 1 1 depend unn thp size and distrihuti~n ~ thp ~udiencr tc he reachedmiddotr- hp ~~tes study tpnns tn ~Ir n~t-Hmiddotmiddotshytion~ radiG fnr its inex~ensivenEs in tE~chin2 1~r2p Iudiencps its ahilitv tn re~ch ~n entirE Tl~u1tirn a~ri ~t~ iedi~cv In the llttpr rEv~rri rlrHn i~ uepul r r latin cursp Cf study t current eVEMts ~~ ~ V( ic Ie thrnur which irrPtTI VPTpnts in inctrucfi fln cln he intrCldted relatively r~Tlidlv Inri ~s ~ vphicle t~rnU~h middotmiddot~h icr t~C -~v fppdhflc 1 1 n in stUc turE c~n hp ~ ntT~urpci r 1 the nrgativr ide q tes nttps th~t rEsp~rc ~U2~P~f~ tr1f r~di~ is M diffitult TTedilIT t(l le~rn frTT th~t Ie ers lack cCntrrl rver the PICE (If fI r~rii r irOT~T ~nd t~ev ~~~ c~nstrMined t l~stEn ~t A ~ixp~ tiTTP

A si~ilar Mn~1vsis could ~e TT~dE r E~cn (1F thp pltenti~l deliv v veticles envlsi~ned hv TtT ~ut gi VPT1

the l~r~e nlIT~er ~f nutputs envisi~ned in ~hi~ ~~~er this is i~o~~sihle The ~nint tn ~e TTI~e herE i~ t~~t t~p ~cst ~fficiert tec~nCl(lgv pAck~2e ~ill v~rv n(1th ncr~~ pr()ject~ 1nd regie-ns Phlt is nee ned is crlreful pi 1 t project using Srerll di fferent del iverv TTndps 11 e rl hv ~ cre~ul CIJuti(ln cf tnE efEctivEMe~S flf ep(~ at thr cnclu~in It is virtu~llv iTTpnssihle tn iud2E tp effectieness f Tt(pV~ deli1erv str~te2ip~ ~t thi~ Iin~ in ti-~ bull ~ he next secti~n w~ an~lvse the n~ture nF

~icAn~nv Fr ~dimiddots ~le in n~velnt7ent Ci~ CfT~fPshyie s f~r lOse (Ttastnlt~n cllev r tliuc~t fln~ lev~J~l7ent n) c 1Trr ~1 Hi1l Medl Tittle ~e+fa (PlChinp~nmiddot 4CarlpTv ~ Cducti=nll )eve1trent 104 )

middot~tes middotfTtiT1S fr Mei~ T)pliv~-rv in Q T-rTttnn e nst 7ffectieneS5 c ni -ta~cp TP~CtM~ (T~T c ~CC0 l d tn

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the ecnnmric returns tn each prn~raft

~ The Private Returns fr~ the Pr~p~~ed Pr~1ect

Ideally we would li~e to both identify ~nd qu~ntiFy the returns t~ the three ~rojects ~here ~~e sever~l reas~ns why this i9 not feasihle at present These c~n be illustrated fairly well usin~ the teacher trainin2 activity as ~ case in p~int The n~her of te~cher~ wh~se s~tll~ will he up~rad2d and the ch~n~e in te~cher skill levels resulttn~ er~~ the prnnsen pr~1ect c~nn~~ lJe estirr~~ed t IT vat lah le dC1t ~ Yet ~u~nd tqti ve dC1tC1 are necessary prerequisites fnr henefit QuantiFic~tt~n While the ~attonal Asses~ent pr~vided sever~l suhjectv~y dete~ined rreasures nf teacher c~~petency in 10 7n the sa~plin~ pr~cedures userl in this ~tudv aTe nnt cnnducive to ~eneraliz~tion at a ngtionll level 1 ire~se the ahse~fgt f middotmiddot~itative data nn the qhi1ttv ~F ~ rfrm such as thnl pr~pnsed by TVPK t~ ch~n~e ~kill levels ~eqns thMt nn ~uantit~tive hase exists Fnr esti~atinp e effects ~f teacher trqining nn the skills aCQu~rfgtn hJ students

An ~ddittrnal c~mplicat~n is ntr~duced hv the eed t~ istinguish he~ween pntential ~nn ~ctud1 n~lt1-Cipllti~n ill t1e three pr~graTTs Given the USf f the PALAPA satell J tes and C1n effective set nf 2r~unn st~~i~n tle D~te~til audience cusistl rf ~11 scI (11 teqchers T QUC11ificati~ns ~elnw thse ultTT~tel~judge~ C1deauate ~v the Mi~i strv Plt it seerrs clear that the actuC11 eneficiaries vd il he a frC1ction ~f the ptential Lac of inf~~atin rn pr~~raTT availahilitv the presence nf per---ns wit h ~ultiole jChs the rresencf nf SrTTe oers~n~ WkQ d nt speu the nationl lC1n~ua~e and re1~ted fact~rs are all li~elv t~ cnntri~ute t~ li~tted ~r~2r~~ usage at least in the first few years ~f the pr~jec~ Once ~~in hrwe~er the lac~ of prior experience ~1th a dis ~nc~ training p~2ra~ precludes a reas~na~le ~uesstiTTate of h~w many persons ~ill qctuallv he re~chp~

A t~tT~ c(nsiderati~n is als~ rele~~nt in the c~se ~f the fir5t and third C1T~nents (t tle tlr~ject (te~cJfgtT u-r~ad ig and nn - f~rCll educqt i ~n) Tn TT~S~ c~n~i c studies ne educ~ttnq1 svsteTTs chqngps ~n enuc~~i~q tratni nf Ire usuall v eauqtpo bull Ji th chmp-es n tMrni ngs and itlc~TTes tn the case e the ~lTent Trn 1ect thi c i c n~t p~ssihle TM~se whC u2r~de ~heir s~ils AS ~e~cJfgtr~ Ti 1 nCtt he ~ilJen a certifictti~n f th~l e~netencv th~t c~n he used t r~ise their calqreQ tns~e~~ th~

BtS r AVAIUBLE COP

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 3: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

An ~c~ease in t~e c~nitR1 h~se nf ~ c~untTv i~ nften rlemiddotd as a prerequi si tEl t of ts succpssFtt1 flC~ ( develoTenmiddot TC~ethpr i th ~ renurt-f ~n n re1 i ~ncp n the R~ricultural sectnr it su~~ps~s thnt Tnnnnp~~ ~ enterin~ 2 pert (Ii tr Sf1p~~t ~rp r~~i n ~rfttJ fh~ it experienced in the sixttes ~nd e~rv ~pvpntips r~~ ~re~1 at hCut 14 per VPIr frnTT n~_~ Inn ~t ~~ ~pr vear frnrr 19~-1r7l ~ecent pxpprience ~U~2eqts ~ 2t~tth rRte nf ~hout -rr per ve~r Rv tmiddot~V rtf CfntTIst T1Iul ~t N1

h~s heen grrt~ing It R r~tp ~f ~~fut ~ ~ ve~r

These rIRngeS in the ec(n~ie setgtnp ~ve pp1 unpl7pnshylv dis~ri~uted ~~(ng thp rlifferent reen~ nF Tnnnp~~ Much of the incretse tn Gnr M~S prnnucen n the Fl~sfrv Rnd ~i1 indu~tries ~~ch Ire he~vi]v e~nCElntl~~en ~n ~~ prfv4-~r~ - ~i~u ~~st V~]i~~nt~n ~ut~e~~~ eu~~ps4 Aeer ~fclul-t cIn Trian J~v~ The ~egrElg~tp rn n of ~hp~p

siX mvincfgtI is rnugh lv est~tEln t h~vf QTT v I I7ertge Ite ~ 1 froT 1 orq_ Tn cflntrnSf ~JP er~t r~te f~r the reT~ining 4 provinces P~S IL ~ i n T~V~ it ~7RS EIlttiTC1ted ~s ( per veRr hese fofeutps su~ep~~ thCt de l(l~ent h~s epn laTgp] I Cf nen t I Fpt prvinc 3 ~_th cTTe sp 1 J nver tn the cpn~rl 2nlTfrrrent-in rtVl T1der the gtvenrent tirn vPIr T1~n ~PTIptl TTT) I nrgr~ f re~-fnal npITPlrTT1ent ic TlrnTlspn J(I

invmiddothmiddotes thp rnvp-pnt nF ftTilies tn thp u~pr ~~ann~ t tv~id p~tenti~l TInO~Mer ~hrrra2~S n the n~n~ Pri-r t- f e ~rticul Itinn nf In (f~ ci~1 tr~n~~ 11 r ~r(lerl~ decignen tn pnenur~gp the ~~~~inn r ~~ ~~~ ~c 1 nn1 f11i Ii ~ I ve~r the ri2h er i~p 1 evp 1 q 1rpIT~ n~ in the uter islands have heen ineFfpc~~ITEI in induenq ) net flc-middot1 r-f vn lunt=rv ~igr=lnt s frftT T~Va Tn pnc(UT)p nQ ~ore l~hrers tn ~i2rtte tn the nevel1ine r~~iflnq erlucclti--n ill ornv~ tn he ~n iTIrt~nt npVp1pn~ ~

~rp Ic~elerlt~n in Tnnnest~s grnwt r~tp ~n~ ~p uneven cidence ~f eCtnCic nevp] pr-ent 2 ITP ri ~f t sever1 ~r~l~s for its tr~inin~ Inri enuc~t~(n n~foffUshy nc middottile there is current1 nn l~r shflr1e p ~n the ~uterj sl1nds it is 11 treJ v th~t iF thp TPl1ui rf~ T~rp ~f ~r~~t ~F thp ~uter isl~nrf~ ~xcee~ thp n~~u~~1 r~t-p ~ ~rut ~ per - 1r I s1rtal2e c nu1 d neve TI (CUTT~t-est middot~tr ~f the exnected ~nnu~l g~~th r~te ~ueqp~~ ~n pxpecte grImiddott~ rlte Cf _~ I ver ~hic iTIp~ t-t~tshy~orerc ill hClve to ~e 1TT1 nrtpn FrlW ~~e 1 PCI 111

BeST AVAlLASLE COPt

gtt f07th ateas of Indonesia in fJitl V luge nUtnbers Howevet Indonesi~ cUttentlv h~s ov~~ ~~~ ~fF~eTet Vmgu~~es ~n1 tl-tp hutrien is nn the sclno sv~fE t tp~ch those frnro diverse hnct~rnun~ thE ~ti on1 1 InvutJp A~ the tr1nSTi~t~t5 on f)Togrpl groS in TT(rtnncp thp lRn~ulgp tt~inin~ TttgrT lill 11~UTE 2l~Itpr i~(rtnp th~ it h~s t~ ~~te

Another conseClUEnct of the n~T ~ev~ CfIT~nt n~ttpTT1C inv~les In ncrp1~p tn the nPTT1nd ~Cr st~~ 1 1 fOri 1 1l-tr The s1lt11 c f r11na~(gts Inn 1drr-inictr~tCr~ ~r ui ninC7 tTtdesrnel of C~lTUTtcltinns sTlPci~l t~ Inn en~ neEts are neces Sl~V tt TTepoundt TnonesI IS nEVpound 1 NTTEnt lPC11 p~t c

~TlTl-ers rn Ictu~ ITpnfTer reoui rprents Ire nnt ptsv tn C1e hv Iut tne studmiddot ~uegectEri thlt In 1 nnu- (tTmiddott h III e r- rnp ttNlrl tr~nsltte int(l In Itmul1 Tr-nTOPT reaur~~ent f ~nn~ nr(l~pcein~Ils ~~nnn tpchnic1~

anr ~C )~n sTdlled p(Tlrer~ 1tlITlet~ Cf thie tVTP IrP - u~ulllv Jt hest hl11-T1l~ pstf~It~~ hecnu~p n~ t~e inherent difficulties inllreri irI 1intdnt nrciuct riptl~~ t~ ~~npwe est~~~te~ pn~ hec~u~~ f t~P riiFficu1~~p~ fnlvp~ fn ~-esc~tn~ hnl hjring T-T-(11 f riT1P in I -=-i -r-pret ecnncv NnnethelEss t~P~euro ~-( p11rp~ rt sug~est sev~~~] i~~ttlnt insght~ ~ir~~ ~he ~hpy ~rp tTClnsIlt or] nt pduclti n11 on~ (IT trlinnl rp(HlrP1pr-c i 1 Jnnerc 1tIt tbe eclucClti ntl cvcteuroY i 0 nt TTrltCrIt cnnug tcchnici~n n~ s~illen ttlmiddotelC hi~ io IlH~v 1 reflecti~ ~ theuro hi~h dt~Tut lIte in t~e nriItv s c l c l n r ~ the f CI crt -- 1 t]-l ~ s E 7h n sf- tl ~ t1 1 C (11 ~ le tte -r- euroduc t 1 n t the sec In rflt v cc h M1 s Inri in Jti(ns f f-jheuror eilucltinn rlther tf-rI nt v~( L~n~l training centers 71e unne~ ~ecln~Irv ~c~~c educate students ~l~t~t exclusive1 f~r h1~hpr eriucl14~ ~nd tend to c ncpntr~t-euro their enereuro~ ~ th ~p n~pTI-ring ~--T unirsitv t~inine Perhtns pc I c n~pupnp the llst h~ ~ (r thp stur1cnts hn te1Tinte t~fO-(r trt-~~~ ~re nct ~middotell suited t fiJ1 t-rp te(l-5c i ln ~nrl ST_ ~ ed wrl-er p-sitirns CTlpned UT v the ~r(Tmiddott~ ~c t-oP e~~+- cr-ve ~nd fnre~trv innustrie~

~cmi tle un1lrersties tprd t trlin Srunetamp tn ~Tt=ilit~c 1 v t=antentid Iv rp11teri tn th~p npp~prl ~ l develning tndu~triec Tn n~rt thc is ~ tptor-t~ln c- r t-e Ii-iter T1uer ~ (H~ciTl1inec tImiddotnl~p -t-- TndCne~il na )~ t~( ti e h cn~t n~ ctu~v I~r~~ Qt~ ~ nI--Ilmiddot 115- re~ect~ I c t~pnt ~v tl-p P~urltl

~ect~ t the trllnine tf In e1ip -tnlC pnt elcc

eESl AVlULJ3u COpy

This is often ~ ~~~rRcter5ttc of ht2h~r educ~tlon in develin~ countries

Of equRl c~ncern is the unevpnn~~ ~F t~e ~u~ltv -f eoucRtion prnvided trithin Tndnesf rI T 1 p unrf~T-F~n~-cing is a qURlity of the educ~ti~n~l ~vst~ thr~U2~ut tndonesiR t the 5i tuttion is toorse 1n SCInP re~s ~ t~e countr1 than in ~thers The Tndnne~i~n ~c~nl gV~t~ ~~ scattered ~cross 3nnn islRnd~ cnverin~ ~n Rr~~ nF ~h~ut 19snnnn Km A stuny nf tnrfne~irln ~rnvinct~1 enuc~shytion systPTTls hv James John~tone prnrtne~ sPer~ s~ Pt~ into pr~Yinci~l difFerences ~ever~ ~rp cite~ herp~ ~1) Usi n~ ~ I index to TTle~ sure t~e rel~t5 VP ~Q ~ncp n~ qURli fied t setTi -qupJ i fieri t ~nn unaup1 i Fi~n teQ~hpT~ the stu~v finds v~lues of n~~ 0~1 ~n~ n~~ Fnr ~ulawesi ~elRtau Bait Rnd J~~~ ~engph An ~nun indic~~e that all te~chers Rr~ qu~lFie~ Tn cnntr~~tJ ~lues nf n nl Rnd n7 ~re oht~tnpn F~r ~pn~middotulu KaliTTPltrln Rnd Irirm ~TRva () TTsing ~ TTeQsure rF thp proPrlrtiCn of stdents ~l1r~ retTqtn in the priucqtf nn sv~tPT bull rr~1stne nds th~t Yngva1artp ~ T~L-Rrt~ hRe ~ ht2h~T ptCpormiddotmiddotion of c~ntinuptinns thRn the nther nrnincec Th~o l~~est values are fnr rri~n TRVR Jus~ eng2ar~ ~iT1YT and l ~iOtlr~ A ~irri1~r c~nclusilln ie repch~rl i f ~n index designed t~ mepsure the rel~ti~e ~u~i~hiitv II~ l1sses ft crim1ing ne 9 enucti nn i~ usprl () fmiddoth(n n indicat~r ~ ~suring the ~ver~~e n~hpr nF vpprs p ~tudent entering a p~rticul~r level ~F eriuc~tin c~ p~shypct t~ cpend at select grR~e levels 1middots us~n tn C~Tlprp differences rI~rg provinces ~~rken ~ifFrence~ Q2p i n errerge ~~~en t~gether t~ese pnn ~ther inntc~tr~ ~ug~~st R ~~rked difference in the auqlirv nF educ~tin 1Tdl~i)le in the urlan cnd rur~l ~rp~s of TnlnEci~

~ Upgr~dng the nu~litv ~f FducRtinn in Tnrlnnegi~

Most studir - F the educ~ti~n~1 SVt~ hpl1f1 ~clnIlTshyledged tJt the relativelvlNl level rlF eXTl~niture~ rn educpti~n has h~d a neg~tve efFect rln the nu~ttv I~ educ~ti~n in 1nd(lne~1~ ~~~nq the ~RV e~~pe~ th~t hi~ een ct~ted f1) Ahut eo f the nr~~tv schl~ ~n ~lrr~st h~lf the sec0nd~rv schln1 ~u1d~n~~ ne~rle~ r~~~ir a t t~e tiTTle 0 oj the stun T t~i ren Funns TmiddoteTP ~Ifl1 1 ~ for ~his pur~nse ( nnlv ~b~ut ~~ nf the secnnn~rv schltl h~d lir~iec rmiddot) ~ Tiri~~nre~d Ipc tr nf te~f~III~ in the n~ti(ln~l Ipngu~~~ e~~eci~llv in t~e cience~ ~n~ technical areas ~akes it necegs~rv for students to ta~e extensive n~tes In t1e tonS andmiddot SlT111 cities 0f the less devel~ped Dr~inces in ver ~ IF the priTTarv

BEST AVAILABLE COpy

schools the children questioned had nn texthonk ~t all at the se~nndarv level nnlv in nne third ~~ the sch~~l~ did eveT~nE h1ve q hflrlt of iIP ldnd (I Tn thp rTE ur~anize~ prflvincps the ~ption~l Asses~ent ~~und pn avera~e of ~R children in each 2T~dp CA~~T~~= thp fi~ure dlopppd tr- I~ in the rural nT~vincp~ n~A~itp this fact 1A- ~f Rll scbo~l~ in the urh~i~en ~r~ViCPA and 5h in the state schnnls hpn heen unahle tr ~cce~t all ~ppllcants ~ostlv for l~c~ nf s~~cp (~) Tn ~~ ~F the schrolr in the pronrer prflvincP~f ~vErcrninp Atm~shyrentlv 4ntErfered with thE ~tudents wfr~ ~nn ~~h teacher bull

Of sDed~l cflncern is tJe Cluesttn IIf tu~1i~ishyc~tinns ~f the te~chers Tn ~n e~~luati ~ t~e rp~ult~ Cf thE Nlt=t1 nal As~esSTTent TIeehv sU2~est-pn th~t lehppn ~n ef) ~ f f e ~ri1Tarv schflo 1 tpacher~ hap ei theT ~u CPG e(iUeltin ~nd tr=lin1n~ rr the eaptl1l1pnt- The situ~ti~n ~=IS wor~e At the secrndarv lpvel wherE clsp t )n~ of the teachers had nfl ne2ree at all pnn ~anv n~ th~ rest ~prr teachin~ ~t the sa~e levEl t-hev h~d ~ChiEvp~ in thlir ~rl sch(ltlillg At the secno1rv lElrE V J ~middotEe tau~Jt in a cnte~t middotJere (wer crl~ ~f thE tepcrETs middotarp qU1l i fi e~

~h~ ~~PCsed ~r~ject will tnv~lve ~pvpr~l ~rqT~~shyratic ch~n2e~ de~igned to un~r~de th~ nu~li~v ~ Trl~np~i~n enuc~ti~n ~nd t nclE~~e the c~untrvs C~~~tv t-~ r~~c~ its l~rge ~nd f1r flun~ n~~ul~t~n ~s~pnti~lv this ~~ 1 ~ he ~cc~nlishen thrru~h thrpflt rp1 ~te ~ct1 rl H p~ I) An i~structi0n~ lHrlin tr~inn~ nr~~r~~ Fnr t-e~c~pr~ designeci tC ~llrnJ those desipnctpd ~~ seTi -aual ~prl ~s u l1lified l to Urqr~rJe t-heil ~Irlls ( An

pen jl1l secrndnTv eductirn tr2r~ ~T t-h~~e ~t the juninl secnd~rv scr~~l level ~nd (1) A ~r~r~~ F

n~n-flTT11 fduc~ti nn des-[gnen t UT2r~rle t-he vlri JS ~ bull c

lC7els If the l~steninR ~uoience

4 7h rffectiveness ~f Alternative ~echn~l(1g~~ ~r ~istnce Te~chi~R

~n n~v7inq ~ or1ect c nFieur~t~n n~ thp tv~P envisi~ned 1 7m- it is u~e~ul t- c~n~iri-=r the re1~t~H~ effectimiddotmiddotene~~ nf the ~ltern~tp Er-lucJtn~l ef~ Recent Te~p~lch h~s f~cuseri n~p v~r4nus re~ ~F ~hp rldi rrtl t-er ~eni~ in 1rlTTt-jn~ Hct~ncp 1e~tn4n~ Tn ~ rev e- ~c lJdi oTiects (c~~Inv ~Ent-i np ~-fp iT

roles for radio in delleloptrent~middot rOtrp~rrltile dat~ ~re avail~hle in ~ rpcent sturlv ~v ~p~ et~l ~~ in ~ interestj ng hClOl v ~chr~fTITT ~he~E ~nn ~ther ~~urli p ~ shed SO(gt light nn tnp iTrrt~n(t (If rrlrH ~~ 1 ~ CClst hut cOTparltiveJ v effectivE EducrlH(In~1 t(l~1 P-ut virtu~llv 11 ~f thp studis ~UQgP~t th~t visu1 ~u~~1p-1tentation) hethEr in thE (tTT ft Tnrl~f~~ tP~thnl~ r mietlgr~pn aids t~ I necpss~v sUtlTll ~pnf tn the i~shytructiC 1 llclr~f7p

Recp~t interest h~s F~eu~ed ~n tne usP n~ C~g~Ettp~ and nh~n~r~ph reocnrds tlS In altern~tile tn tnp hign capit~l ensts ot instJling ~ r~di0 ~ci1itv ~pcent wCrt- hv B~t( c n~~ shn~1fl th~t e~ch (1 thE TTpcii ~ n~ ~ d ~pshyrent cldmiddotmiddot1ntle mci tn1t v+lc h 5 tne 1 e~~t c nQtl v lo 1 1 depend unn thp size and distrihuti~n ~ thp ~udiencr tc he reachedmiddotr- hp ~~tes study tpnns tn ~Ir n~t-Hmiddotmiddotshytion~ radiG fnr its inex~ensivenEs in tE~chin2 1~r2p Iudiencps its ahilitv tn re~ch ~n entirE Tl~u1tirn a~ri ~t~ iedi~cv In the llttpr rEv~rri rlrHn i~ uepul r r latin cursp Cf study t current eVEMts ~~ ~ V( ic Ie thrnur which irrPtTI VPTpnts in inctrucfi fln cln he intrCldted relatively r~Tlidlv Inri ~s ~ vphicle t~rnU~h middotmiddot~h icr t~C -~v fppdhflc 1 1 n in stUc turE c~n hp ~ ntT~urpci r 1 the nrgativr ide q tes nttps th~t rEsp~rc ~U2~P~f~ tr1f r~di~ is M diffitult TTedilIT t(l le~rn frTT th~t Ie ers lack cCntrrl rver the PICE (If fI r~rii r irOT~T ~nd t~ev ~~~ c~nstrMined t l~stEn ~t A ~ixp~ tiTTP

A si~ilar Mn~1vsis could ~e TT~dE r E~cn (1F thp pltenti~l deliv v veticles envlsi~ned hv TtT ~ut gi VPT1

the l~r~e nlIT~er ~f nutputs envisi~ned in ~hi~ ~~~er this is i~o~~sihle The ~nint tn ~e TTI~e herE i~ t~~t t~p ~cst ~fficiert tec~nCl(lgv pAck~2e ~ill v~rv n(1th ncr~~ pr()ject~ 1nd regie-ns Phlt is nee ned is crlreful pi 1 t project using Srerll di fferent del iverv TTndps 11 e rl hv ~ cre~ul CIJuti(ln cf tnE efEctivEMe~S flf ep(~ at thr cnclu~in It is virtu~llv iTTpnssihle tn iud2E tp effectieness f Tt(pV~ deli1erv str~te2ip~ ~t thi~ Iin~ in ti-~ bull ~ he next secti~n w~ an~lvse the n~ture nF

~icAn~nv Fr ~dimiddots ~le in n~velnt7ent Ci~ CfT~fPshyie s f~r lOse (Ttastnlt~n cllev r tliuc~t fln~ lev~J~l7ent n) c 1Trr ~1 Hi1l Medl Tittle ~e+fa (PlChinp~nmiddot 4CarlpTv ~ Cducti=nll )eve1trent 104 )

middot~tes middotfTtiT1S fr Mei~ T)pliv~-rv in Q T-rTttnn e nst 7ffectieneS5 c ni -ta~cp TP~CtM~ (T~T c ~CC0 l d tn

atST AVAILABLE CQP1

~

the ecnnmric returns tn each prn~raft

~ The Private Returns fr~ the Pr~p~~ed Pr~1ect

Ideally we would li~e to both identify ~nd qu~ntiFy the returns t~ the three ~rojects ~here ~~e sever~l reas~ns why this i9 not feasihle at present These c~n be illustrated fairly well usin~ the teacher trainin2 activity as ~ case in p~int The n~her of te~cher~ wh~se s~tll~ will he up~rad2d and the ch~n~e in te~cher skill levels resulttn~ er~~ the prnnsen pr~1ect c~nn~~ lJe estirr~~ed t IT vat lah le dC1t ~ Yet ~u~nd tqti ve dC1tC1 are necessary prerequisites fnr henefit QuantiFic~tt~n While the ~attonal Asses~ent pr~vided sever~l suhjectv~y dete~ined rreasures nf teacher c~~petency in 10 7n the sa~plin~ pr~cedures userl in this ~tudv aTe nnt cnnducive to ~eneraliz~tion at a ngtionll level 1 ire~se the ahse~fgt f middotmiddot~itative data nn the qhi1ttv ~F ~ rfrm such as thnl pr~pnsed by TVPK t~ ch~n~e ~kill levels ~eqns thMt nn ~uantit~tive hase exists Fnr esti~atinp e effects ~f teacher trqining nn the skills aCQu~rfgtn hJ students

An ~ddittrnal c~mplicat~n is ntr~duced hv the eed t~ istinguish he~ween pntential ~nn ~ctud1 n~lt1-Cipllti~n ill t1e three pr~graTTs Given the USf f the PALAPA satell J tes and C1n effective set nf 2r~unn st~~i~n tle D~te~til audience cusistl rf ~11 scI (11 teqchers T QUC11ificati~ns ~elnw thse ultTT~tel~judge~ C1deauate ~v the Mi~i strv Plt it seerrs clear that the actuC11 eneficiaries vd il he a frC1ction ~f the ptential Lac of inf~~atin rn pr~~raTT availahilitv the presence nf per---ns wit h ~ultiole jChs the rresencf nf SrTTe oers~n~ WkQ d nt speu the nationl lC1n~ua~e and re1~ted fact~rs are all li~elv t~ cnntri~ute t~ li~tted ~r~2r~~ usage at least in the first few years ~f the pr~jec~ Once ~~in hrwe~er the lac~ of prior experience ~1th a dis ~nc~ training p~2ra~ precludes a reas~na~le ~uesstiTTate of h~w many persons ~ill qctuallv he re~chp~

A t~tT~ c(nsiderati~n is als~ rele~~nt in the c~se ~f the fir5t and third C1T~nents (t tle tlr~ject (te~cJfgtT u-r~ad ig and nn - f~rCll educqt i ~n) Tn TT~S~ c~n~i c studies ne educ~ttnq1 svsteTTs chqngps ~n enuc~~i~q tratni nf Ire usuall v eauqtpo bull Ji th chmp-es n tMrni ngs and itlc~TTes tn the case e the ~lTent Trn 1ect thi c i c n~t p~ssihle TM~se whC u2r~de ~heir s~ils AS ~e~cJfgtr~ Ti 1 nCtt he ~ilJen a certifictti~n f th~l e~netencv th~t c~n he used t r~ise their calqreQ tns~e~~ th~

BtS r AVAIUBLE COP

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 4: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

gtt f07th ateas of Indonesia in fJitl V luge nUtnbers Howevet Indonesi~ cUttentlv h~s ov~~ ~~~ ~fF~eTet Vmgu~~es ~n1 tl-tp hutrien is nn the sclno sv~fE t tp~ch those frnro diverse hnct~rnun~ thE ~ti on1 1 InvutJp A~ the tr1nSTi~t~t5 on f)Togrpl groS in TT(rtnncp thp lRn~ulgp tt~inin~ TttgrT lill 11~UTE 2l~Itpr i~(rtnp th~ it h~s t~ ~~te

Another conseClUEnct of the n~T ~ev~ CfIT~nt n~ttpTT1C inv~les In ncrp1~p tn the nPTT1nd ~Cr st~~ 1 1 fOri 1 1l-tr The s1lt11 c f r11na~(gts Inn 1drr-inictr~tCr~ ~r ui ninC7 tTtdesrnel of C~lTUTtcltinns sTlPci~l t~ Inn en~ neEts are neces Sl~V tt TTepoundt TnonesI IS nEVpound 1 NTTEnt lPC11 p~t c

~TlTl-ers rn Ictu~ ITpnfTer reoui rprents Ire nnt ptsv tn C1e hv Iut tne studmiddot ~uegectEri thlt In 1 nnu- (tTmiddott h III e r- rnp ttNlrl tr~nsltte int(l In Itmul1 Tr-nTOPT reaur~~ent f ~nn~ nr(l~pcein~Ils ~~nnn tpchnic1~

anr ~C )~n sTdlled p(Tlrer~ 1tlITlet~ Cf thie tVTP IrP - u~ulllv Jt hest hl11-T1l~ pstf~It~~ hecnu~p n~ t~e inherent difficulties inllreri irI 1intdnt nrciuct riptl~~ t~ ~~npwe est~~~te~ pn~ hec~u~~ f t~P riiFficu1~~p~ fnlvp~ fn ~-esc~tn~ hnl hjring T-T-(11 f riT1P in I -=-i -r-pret ecnncv NnnethelEss t~P~euro ~-( p11rp~ rt sug~est sev~~~] i~~ttlnt insght~ ~ir~~ ~he ~hpy ~rp tTClnsIlt or] nt pduclti n11 on~ (IT trlinnl rp(HlrP1pr-c i 1 Jnnerc 1tIt tbe eclucClti ntl cvcteuroY i 0 nt TTrltCrIt cnnug tcchnici~n n~ s~illen ttlmiddotelC hi~ io IlH~v 1 reflecti~ ~ theuro hi~h dt~Tut lIte in t~e nriItv s c l c l n r ~ the f CI crt -- 1 t]-l ~ s E 7h n sf- tl ~ t1 1 C (11 ~ le tte -r- euroduc t 1 n t the sec In rflt v cc h M1 s Inri in Jti(ns f f-jheuror eilucltinn rlther tf-rI nt v~( L~n~l training centers 71e unne~ ~ecln~Irv ~c~~c educate students ~l~t~t exclusive1 f~r h1~hpr eriucl14~ ~nd tend to c ncpntr~t-euro their enereuro~ ~ th ~p n~pTI-ring ~--T unirsitv t~inine Perhtns pc I c n~pupnp the llst h~ ~ (r thp stur1cnts hn te1Tinte t~fO-(r trt-~~~ ~re nct ~middotell suited t fiJ1 t-rp te(l-5c i ln ~nrl ST_ ~ ed wrl-er p-sitirns CTlpned UT v the ~r(Tmiddott~ ~c t-oP e~~+- cr-ve ~nd fnre~trv innustrie~

~cmi tle un1lrersties tprd t trlin Srunetamp tn ~Tt=ilit~c 1 v t=antentid Iv rp11teri tn th~p npp~prl ~ l develning tndu~triec Tn n~rt thc is ~ tptor-t~ln c- r t-e Ii-iter T1uer ~ (H~ciTl1inec tImiddotnl~p -t-- TndCne~il na )~ t~( ti e h cn~t n~ ctu~v I~r~~ Qt~ ~ nI--Ilmiddot 115- re~ect~ I c t~pnt ~v tl-p P~urltl

~ect~ t the trllnine tf In e1ip -tnlC pnt elcc

eESl AVlULJ3u COpy

This is often ~ ~~~rRcter5ttc of ht2h~r educ~tlon in develin~ countries

Of equRl c~ncern is the unevpnn~~ ~F t~e ~u~ltv -f eoucRtion prnvided trithin Tndnesf rI T 1 p unrf~T-F~n~-cing is a qURlity of the educ~ti~n~l ~vst~ thr~U2~ut tndonesiR t the 5i tuttion is toorse 1n SCInP re~s ~ t~e countr1 than in ~thers The Tndnne~i~n ~c~nl gV~t~ ~~ scattered ~cross 3nnn islRnd~ cnverin~ ~n Rr~~ nF ~h~ut 19snnnn Km A stuny nf tnrfne~irln ~rnvinct~1 enuc~shytion systPTTls hv James John~tone prnrtne~ sPer~ s~ Pt~ into pr~Yinci~l difFerences ~ever~ ~rp cite~ herp~ ~1) Usi n~ ~ I index to TTle~ sure t~e rel~t5 VP ~Q ~ncp n~ qURli fied t setTi -qupJ i fieri t ~nn unaup1 i Fi~n teQ~hpT~ the stu~v finds v~lues of n~~ 0~1 ~n~ n~~ Fnr ~ulawesi ~elRtau Bait Rnd J~~~ ~engph An ~nun indic~~e that all te~chers Rr~ qu~lFie~ Tn cnntr~~tJ ~lues nf n nl Rnd n7 ~re oht~tnpn F~r ~pn~middotulu KaliTTPltrln Rnd Irirm ~TRva () TTsing ~ TTeQsure rF thp proPrlrtiCn of stdents ~l1r~ retTqtn in the priucqtf nn sv~tPT bull rr~1stne nds th~t Yngva1artp ~ T~L-Rrt~ hRe ~ ht2h~T ptCpormiddotmiddotion of c~ntinuptinns thRn the nther nrnincec Th~o l~~est values are fnr rri~n TRVR Jus~ eng2ar~ ~iT1YT and l ~iOtlr~ A ~irri1~r c~nclusilln ie repch~rl i f ~n index designed t~ mepsure the rel~ti~e ~u~i~hiitv II~ l1sses ft crim1ing ne 9 enucti nn i~ usprl () fmiddoth(n n indicat~r ~ ~suring the ~ver~~e n~hpr nF vpprs p ~tudent entering a p~rticul~r level ~F eriuc~tin c~ p~shypct t~ cpend at select grR~e levels 1middots us~n tn C~Tlprp differences rI~rg provinces ~~rken ~ifFrence~ Q2p i n errerge ~~~en t~gether t~ese pnn ~ther inntc~tr~ ~ug~~st R ~~rked difference in the auqlirv nF educ~tin 1Tdl~i)le in the urlan cnd rur~l ~rp~s of TnlnEci~

~ Upgr~dng the nu~litv ~f FducRtinn in Tnrlnnegi~

Most studir - F the educ~ti~n~1 SVt~ hpl1f1 ~clnIlTshyledged tJt the relativelvlNl level rlF eXTl~niture~ rn educpti~n has h~d a neg~tve efFect rln the nu~ttv I~ educ~ti~n in 1nd(lne~1~ ~~~nq the ~RV e~~pe~ th~t hi~ een ct~ted f1) Ahut eo f the nr~~tv schl~ ~n ~lrr~st h~lf the sec0nd~rv schln1 ~u1d~n~~ ne~rle~ r~~~ir a t t~e tiTTle 0 oj the stun T t~i ren Funns TmiddoteTP ~Ifl1 1 ~ for ~his pur~nse ( nnlv ~b~ut ~~ nf the secnnn~rv schltl h~d lir~iec rmiddot) ~ Tiri~~nre~d Ipc tr nf te~f~III~ in the n~ti(ln~l Ipngu~~~ e~~eci~llv in t~e cience~ ~n~ technical areas ~akes it necegs~rv for students to ta~e extensive n~tes In t1e tonS andmiddot SlT111 cities 0f the less devel~ped Dr~inces in ver ~ IF the priTTarv

BEST AVAILABLE COpy

schools the children questioned had nn texthonk ~t all at the se~nndarv level nnlv in nne third ~~ the sch~~l~ did eveT~nE h1ve q hflrlt of iIP ldnd (I Tn thp rTE ur~anize~ prflvincps the ~ption~l Asses~ent ~~und pn avera~e of ~R children in each 2T~dp CA~~T~~= thp fi~ure dlopppd tr- I~ in the rural nT~vincp~ n~A~itp this fact 1A- ~f Rll scbo~l~ in the urh~i~en ~r~ViCPA and 5h in the state schnnls hpn heen unahle tr ~cce~t all ~ppllcants ~ostlv for l~c~ nf s~~cp (~) Tn ~~ ~F the schrolr in the pronrer prflvincP~f ~vErcrninp Atm~shyrentlv 4ntErfered with thE ~tudents wfr~ ~nn ~~h teacher bull

Of sDed~l cflncern is tJe Cluesttn IIf tu~1i~ishyc~tinns ~f the te~chers Tn ~n e~~luati ~ t~e rp~ult~ Cf thE Nlt=t1 nal As~esSTTent TIeehv sU2~est-pn th~t lehppn ~n ef) ~ f f e ~ri1Tarv schflo 1 tpacher~ hap ei theT ~u CPG e(iUeltin ~nd tr=lin1n~ rr the eaptl1l1pnt- The situ~ti~n ~=IS wor~e At the secrndarv lpvel wherE clsp t )n~ of the teachers had nfl ne2ree at all pnn ~anv n~ th~ rest ~prr teachin~ ~t the sa~e levEl t-hev h~d ~ChiEvp~ in thlir ~rl sch(ltlillg At the secno1rv lElrE V J ~middotEe tau~Jt in a cnte~t middotJere (wer crl~ ~f thE tepcrETs middotarp qU1l i fi e~

~h~ ~~PCsed ~r~ject will tnv~lve ~pvpr~l ~rqT~~shyratic ch~n2e~ de~igned to un~r~de th~ nu~li~v ~ Trl~np~i~n enuc~ti~n ~nd t nclE~~e the c~untrvs C~~~tv t-~ r~~c~ its l~rge ~nd f1r flun~ n~~ul~t~n ~s~pnti~lv this ~~ 1 ~ he ~cc~nlishen thrru~h thrpflt rp1 ~te ~ct1 rl H p~ I) An i~structi0n~ lHrlin tr~inn~ nr~~r~~ Fnr t-e~c~pr~ designeci tC ~llrnJ those desipnctpd ~~ seTi -aual ~prl ~s u l1lified l to Urqr~rJe t-heil ~Irlls ( An

pen jl1l secrndnTv eductirn tr2r~ ~T t-h~~e ~t the juninl secnd~rv scr~~l level ~nd (1) A ~r~r~~ F

n~n-flTT11 fduc~ti nn des-[gnen t UT2r~rle t-he vlri JS ~ bull c

lC7els If the l~steninR ~uoience

4 7h rffectiveness ~f Alternative ~echn~l(1g~~ ~r ~istnce Te~chi~R

~n n~v7inq ~ or1ect c nFieur~t~n n~ thp tv~P envisi~ned 1 7m- it is u~e~ul t- c~n~iri-=r the re1~t~H~ effectimiddotmiddotene~~ nf the ~ltern~tp Er-lucJtn~l ef~ Recent Te~p~lch h~s f~cuseri n~p v~r4nus re~ ~F ~hp rldi rrtl t-er ~eni~ in 1rlTTt-jn~ Hct~ncp 1e~tn4n~ Tn ~ rev e- ~c lJdi oTiects (c~~Inv ~Ent-i np ~-fp iT

roles for radio in delleloptrent~middot rOtrp~rrltile dat~ ~re avail~hle in ~ rpcent sturlv ~v ~p~ et~l ~~ in ~ interestj ng hClOl v ~chr~fTITT ~he~E ~nn ~ther ~~urli p ~ shed SO(gt light nn tnp iTrrt~n(t (If rrlrH ~~ 1 ~ CClst hut cOTparltiveJ v effectivE EducrlH(In~1 t(l~1 P-ut virtu~llv 11 ~f thp studis ~UQgP~t th~t visu1 ~u~~1p-1tentation) hethEr in thE (tTT ft Tnrl~f~~ tP~thnl~ r mietlgr~pn aids t~ I necpss~v sUtlTll ~pnf tn the i~shytructiC 1 llclr~f7p

Recp~t interest h~s F~eu~ed ~n tne usP n~ C~g~Ettp~ and nh~n~r~ph reocnrds tlS In altern~tile tn tnp hign capit~l ensts ot instJling ~ r~di0 ~ci1itv ~pcent wCrt- hv B~t( c n~~ shn~1fl th~t e~ch (1 thE TTpcii ~ n~ ~ d ~pshyrent cldmiddotmiddot1ntle mci tn1t v+lc h 5 tne 1 e~~t c nQtl v lo 1 1 depend unn thp size and distrihuti~n ~ thp ~udiencr tc he reachedmiddotr- hp ~~tes study tpnns tn ~Ir n~t-Hmiddotmiddotshytion~ radiG fnr its inex~ensivenEs in tE~chin2 1~r2p Iudiencps its ahilitv tn re~ch ~n entirE Tl~u1tirn a~ri ~t~ iedi~cv In the llttpr rEv~rri rlrHn i~ uepul r r latin cursp Cf study t current eVEMts ~~ ~ V( ic Ie thrnur which irrPtTI VPTpnts in inctrucfi fln cln he intrCldted relatively r~Tlidlv Inri ~s ~ vphicle t~rnU~h middotmiddot~h icr t~C -~v fppdhflc 1 1 n in stUc turE c~n hp ~ ntT~urpci r 1 the nrgativr ide q tes nttps th~t rEsp~rc ~U2~P~f~ tr1f r~di~ is M diffitult TTedilIT t(l le~rn frTT th~t Ie ers lack cCntrrl rver the PICE (If fI r~rii r irOT~T ~nd t~ev ~~~ c~nstrMined t l~stEn ~t A ~ixp~ tiTTP

A si~ilar Mn~1vsis could ~e TT~dE r E~cn (1F thp pltenti~l deliv v veticles envlsi~ned hv TtT ~ut gi VPT1

the l~r~e nlIT~er ~f nutputs envisi~ned in ~hi~ ~~~er this is i~o~~sihle The ~nint tn ~e TTI~e herE i~ t~~t t~p ~cst ~fficiert tec~nCl(lgv pAck~2e ~ill v~rv n(1th ncr~~ pr()ject~ 1nd regie-ns Phlt is nee ned is crlreful pi 1 t project using Srerll di fferent del iverv TTndps 11 e rl hv ~ cre~ul CIJuti(ln cf tnE efEctivEMe~S flf ep(~ at thr cnclu~in It is virtu~llv iTTpnssihle tn iud2E tp effectieness f Tt(pV~ deli1erv str~te2ip~ ~t thi~ Iin~ in ti-~ bull ~ he next secti~n w~ an~lvse the n~ture nF

~icAn~nv Fr ~dimiddots ~le in n~velnt7ent Ci~ CfT~fPshyie s f~r lOse (Ttastnlt~n cllev r tliuc~t fln~ lev~J~l7ent n) c 1Trr ~1 Hi1l Medl Tittle ~e+fa (PlChinp~nmiddot 4CarlpTv ~ Cducti=nll )eve1trent 104 )

middot~tes middotfTtiT1S fr Mei~ T)pliv~-rv in Q T-rTttnn e nst 7ffectieneS5 c ni -ta~cp TP~CtM~ (T~T c ~CC0 l d tn

atST AVAILABLE CQP1

~

the ecnnmric returns tn each prn~raft

~ The Private Returns fr~ the Pr~p~~ed Pr~1ect

Ideally we would li~e to both identify ~nd qu~ntiFy the returns t~ the three ~rojects ~here ~~e sever~l reas~ns why this i9 not feasihle at present These c~n be illustrated fairly well usin~ the teacher trainin2 activity as ~ case in p~int The n~her of te~cher~ wh~se s~tll~ will he up~rad2d and the ch~n~e in te~cher skill levels resulttn~ er~~ the prnnsen pr~1ect c~nn~~ lJe estirr~~ed t IT vat lah le dC1t ~ Yet ~u~nd tqti ve dC1tC1 are necessary prerequisites fnr henefit QuantiFic~tt~n While the ~attonal Asses~ent pr~vided sever~l suhjectv~y dete~ined rreasures nf teacher c~~petency in 10 7n the sa~plin~ pr~cedures userl in this ~tudv aTe nnt cnnducive to ~eneraliz~tion at a ngtionll level 1 ire~se the ahse~fgt f middotmiddot~itative data nn the qhi1ttv ~F ~ rfrm such as thnl pr~pnsed by TVPK t~ ch~n~e ~kill levels ~eqns thMt nn ~uantit~tive hase exists Fnr esti~atinp e effects ~f teacher trqining nn the skills aCQu~rfgtn hJ students

An ~ddittrnal c~mplicat~n is ntr~duced hv the eed t~ istinguish he~ween pntential ~nn ~ctud1 n~lt1-Cipllti~n ill t1e three pr~graTTs Given the USf f the PALAPA satell J tes and C1n effective set nf 2r~unn st~~i~n tle D~te~til audience cusistl rf ~11 scI (11 teqchers T QUC11ificati~ns ~elnw thse ultTT~tel~judge~ C1deauate ~v the Mi~i strv Plt it seerrs clear that the actuC11 eneficiaries vd il he a frC1ction ~f the ptential Lac of inf~~atin rn pr~~raTT availahilitv the presence nf per---ns wit h ~ultiole jChs the rresencf nf SrTTe oers~n~ WkQ d nt speu the nationl lC1n~ua~e and re1~ted fact~rs are all li~elv t~ cnntri~ute t~ li~tted ~r~2r~~ usage at least in the first few years ~f the pr~jec~ Once ~~in hrwe~er the lac~ of prior experience ~1th a dis ~nc~ training p~2ra~ precludes a reas~na~le ~uesstiTTate of h~w many persons ~ill qctuallv he re~chp~

A t~tT~ c(nsiderati~n is als~ rele~~nt in the c~se ~f the fir5t and third C1T~nents (t tle tlr~ject (te~cJfgtT u-r~ad ig and nn - f~rCll educqt i ~n) Tn TT~S~ c~n~i c studies ne educ~ttnq1 svsteTTs chqngps ~n enuc~~i~q tratni nf Ire usuall v eauqtpo bull Ji th chmp-es n tMrni ngs and itlc~TTes tn the case e the ~lTent Trn 1ect thi c i c n~t p~ssihle TM~se whC u2r~de ~heir s~ils AS ~e~cJfgtr~ Ti 1 nCtt he ~ilJen a certifictti~n f th~l e~netencv th~t c~n he used t r~ise their calqreQ tns~e~~ th~

BtS r AVAIUBLE COP

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 5: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

This is often ~ ~~~rRcter5ttc of ht2h~r educ~tlon in develin~ countries

Of equRl c~ncern is the unevpnn~~ ~F t~e ~u~ltv -f eoucRtion prnvided trithin Tndnesf rI T 1 p unrf~T-F~n~-cing is a qURlity of the educ~ti~n~l ~vst~ thr~U2~ut tndonesiR t the 5i tuttion is toorse 1n SCInP re~s ~ t~e countr1 than in ~thers The Tndnne~i~n ~c~nl gV~t~ ~~ scattered ~cross 3nnn islRnd~ cnverin~ ~n Rr~~ nF ~h~ut 19snnnn Km A stuny nf tnrfne~irln ~rnvinct~1 enuc~shytion systPTTls hv James John~tone prnrtne~ sPer~ s~ Pt~ into pr~Yinci~l difFerences ~ever~ ~rp cite~ herp~ ~1) Usi n~ ~ I index to TTle~ sure t~e rel~t5 VP ~Q ~ncp n~ qURli fied t setTi -qupJ i fieri t ~nn unaup1 i Fi~n teQ~hpT~ the stu~v finds v~lues of n~~ 0~1 ~n~ n~~ Fnr ~ulawesi ~elRtau Bait Rnd J~~~ ~engph An ~nun indic~~e that all te~chers Rr~ qu~lFie~ Tn cnntr~~tJ ~lues nf n nl Rnd n7 ~re oht~tnpn F~r ~pn~middotulu KaliTTPltrln Rnd Irirm ~TRva () TTsing ~ TTeQsure rF thp proPrlrtiCn of stdents ~l1r~ retTqtn in the priucqtf nn sv~tPT bull rr~1stne nds th~t Yngva1artp ~ T~L-Rrt~ hRe ~ ht2h~T ptCpormiddotmiddotion of c~ntinuptinns thRn the nther nrnincec Th~o l~~est values are fnr rri~n TRVR Jus~ eng2ar~ ~iT1YT and l ~iOtlr~ A ~irri1~r c~nclusilln ie repch~rl i f ~n index designed t~ mepsure the rel~ti~e ~u~i~hiitv II~ l1sses ft crim1ing ne 9 enucti nn i~ usprl () fmiddoth(n n indicat~r ~ ~suring the ~ver~~e n~hpr nF vpprs p ~tudent entering a p~rticul~r level ~F eriuc~tin c~ p~shypct t~ cpend at select grR~e levels 1middots us~n tn C~Tlprp differences rI~rg provinces ~~rken ~ifFrence~ Q2p i n errerge ~~~en t~gether t~ese pnn ~ther inntc~tr~ ~ug~~st R ~~rked difference in the auqlirv nF educ~tin 1Tdl~i)le in the urlan cnd rur~l ~rp~s of TnlnEci~

~ Upgr~dng the nu~litv ~f FducRtinn in Tnrlnnegi~

Most studir - F the educ~ti~n~1 SVt~ hpl1f1 ~clnIlTshyledged tJt the relativelvlNl level rlF eXTl~niture~ rn educpti~n has h~d a neg~tve efFect rln the nu~ttv I~ educ~ti~n in 1nd(lne~1~ ~~~nq the ~RV e~~pe~ th~t hi~ een ct~ted f1) Ahut eo f the nr~~tv schl~ ~n ~lrr~st h~lf the sec0nd~rv schln1 ~u1d~n~~ ne~rle~ r~~~ir a t t~e tiTTle 0 oj the stun T t~i ren Funns TmiddoteTP ~Ifl1 1 ~ for ~his pur~nse ( nnlv ~b~ut ~~ nf the secnnn~rv schltl h~d lir~iec rmiddot) ~ Tiri~~nre~d Ipc tr nf te~f~III~ in the n~ti(ln~l Ipngu~~~ e~~eci~llv in t~e cience~ ~n~ technical areas ~akes it necegs~rv for students to ta~e extensive n~tes In t1e tonS andmiddot SlT111 cities 0f the less devel~ped Dr~inces in ver ~ IF the priTTarv

BEST AVAILABLE COpy

schools the children questioned had nn texthonk ~t all at the se~nndarv level nnlv in nne third ~~ the sch~~l~ did eveT~nE h1ve q hflrlt of iIP ldnd (I Tn thp rTE ur~anize~ prflvincps the ~ption~l Asses~ent ~~und pn avera~e of ~R children in each 2T~dp CA~~T~~= thp fi~ure dlopppd tr- I~ in the rural nT~vincp~ n~A~itp this fact 1A- ~f Rll scbo~l~ in the urh~i~en ~r~ViCPA and 5h in the state schnnls hpn heen unahle tr ~cce~t all ~ppllcants ~ostlv for l~c~ nf s~~cp (~) Tn ~~ ~F the schrolr in the pronrer prflvincP~f ~vErcrninp Atm~shyrentlv 4ntErfered with thE ~tudents wfr~ ~nn ~~h teacher bull

Of sDed~l cflncern is tJe Cluesttn IIf tu~1i~ishyc~tinns ~f the te~chers Tn ~n e~~luati ~ t~e rp~ult~ Cf thE Nlt=t1 nal As~esSTTent TIeehv sU2~est-pn th~t lehppn ~n ef) ~ f f e ~ri1Tarv schflo 1 tpacher~ hap ei theT ~u CPG e(iUeltin ~nd tr=lin1n~ rr the eaptl1l1pnt- The situ~ti~n ~=IS wor~e At the secrndarv lpvel wherE clsp t )n~ of the teachers had nfl ne2ree at all pnn ~anv n~ th~ rest ~prr teachin~ ~t the sa~e levEl t-hev h~d ~ChiEvp~ in thlir ~rl sch(ltlillg At the secno1rv lElrE V J ~middotEe tau~Jt in a cnte~t middotJere (wer crl~ ~f thE tepcrETs middotarp qU1l i fi e~

~h~ ~~PCsed ~r~ject will tnv~lve ~pvpr~l ~rqT~~shyratic ch~n2e~ de~igned to un~r~de th~ nu~li~v ~ Trl~np~i~n enuc~ti~n ~nd t nclE~~e the c~untrvs C~~~tv t-~ r~~c~ its l~rge ~nd f1r flun~ n~~ul~t~n ~s~pnti~lv this ~~ 1 ~ he ~cc~nlishen thrru~h thrpflt rp1 ~te ~ct1 rl H p~ I) An i~structi0n~ lHrlin tr~inn~ nr~~r~~ Fnr t-e~c~pr~ designeci tC ~llrnJ those desipnctpd ~~ seTi -aual ~prl ~s u l1lified l to Urqr~rJe t-heil ~Irlls ( An

pen jl1l secrndnTv eductirn tr2r~ ~T t-h~~e ~t the juninl secnd~rv scr~~l level ~nd (1) A ~r~r~~ F

n~n-flTT11 fduc~ti nn des-[gnen t UT2r~rle t-he vlri JS ~ bull c

lC7els If the l~steninR ~uoience

4 7h rffectiveness ~f Alternative ~echn~l(1g~~ ~r ~istnce Te~chi~R

~n n~v7inq ~ or1ect c nFieur~t~n n~ thp tv~P envisi~ned 1 7m- it is u~e~ul t- c~n~iri-=r the re1~t~H~ effectimiddotmiddotene~~ nf the ~ltern~tp Er-lucJtn~l ef~ Recent Te~p~lch h~s f~cuseri n~p v~r4nus re~ ~F ~hp rldi rrtl t-er ~eni~ in 1rlTTt-jn~ Hct~ncp 1e~tn4n~ Tn ~ rev e- ~c lJdi oTiects (c~~Inv ~Ent-i np ~-fp iT

roles for radio in delleloptrent~middot rOtrp~rrltile dat~ ~re avail~hle in ~ rpcent sturlv ~v ~p~ et~l ~~ in ~ interestj ng hClOl v ~chr~fTITT ~he~E ~nn ~ther ~~urli p ~ shed SO(gt light nn tnp iTrrt~n(t (If rrlrH ~~ 1 ~ CClst hut cOTparltiveJ v effectivE EducrlH(In~1 t(l~1 P-ut virtu~llv 11 ~f thp studis ~UQgP~t th~t visu1 ~u~~1p-1tentation) hethEr in thE (tTT ft Tnrl~f~~ tP~thnl~ r mietlgr~pn aids t~ I necpss~v sUtlTll ~pnf tn the i~shytructiC 1 llclr~f7p

Recp~t interest h~s F~eu~ed ~n tne usP n~ C~g~Ettp~ and nh~n~r~ph reocnrds tlS In altern~tile tn tnp hign capit~l ensts ot instJling ~ r~di0 ~ci1itv ~pcent wCrt- hv B~t( c n~~ shn~1fl th~t e~ch (1 thE TTpcii ~ n~ ~ d ~pshyrent cldmiddotmiddot1ntle mci tn1t v+lc h 5 tne 1 e~~t c nQtl v lo 1 1 depend unn thp size and distrihuti~n ~ thp ~udiencr tc he reachedmiddotr- hp ~~tes study tpnns tn ~Ir n~t-Hmiddotmiddotshytion~ radiG fnr its inex~ensivenEs in tE~chin2 1~r2p Iudiencps its ahilitv tn re~ch ~n entirE Tl~u1tirn a~ri ~t~ iedi~cv In the llttpr rEv~rri rlrHn i~ uepul r r latin cursp Cf study t current eVEMts ~~ ~ V( ic Ie thrnur which irrPtTI VPTpnts in inctrucfi fln cln he intrCldted relatively r~Tlidlv Inri ~s ~ vphicle t~rnU~h middotmiddot~h icr t~C -~v fppdhflc 1 1 n in stUc turE c~n hp ~ ntT~urpci r 1 the nrgativr ide q tes nttps th~t rEsp~rc ~U2~P~f~ tr1f r~di~ is M diffitult TTedilIT t(l le~rn frTT th~t Ie ers lack cCntrrl rver the PICE (If fI r~rii r irOT~T ~nd t~ev ~~~ c~nstrMined t l~stEn ~t A ~ixp~ tiTTP

A si~ilar Mn~1vsis could ~e TT~dE r E~cn (1F thp pltenti~l deliv v veticles envlsi~ned hv TtT ~ut gi VPT1

the l~r~e nlIT~er ~f nutputs envisi~ned in ~hi~ ~~~er this is i~o~~sihle The ~nint tn ~e TTI~e herE i~ t~~t t~p ~cst ~fficiert tec~nCl(lgv pAck~2e ~ill v~rv n(1th ncr~~ pr()ject~ 1nd regie-ns Phlt is nee ned is crlreful pi 1 t project using Srerll di fferent del iverv TTndps 11 e rl hv ~ cre~ul CIJuti(ln cf tnE efEctivEMe~S flf ep(~ at thr cnclu~in It is virtu~llv iTTpnssihle tn iud2E tp effectieness f Tt(pV~ deli1erv str~te2ip~ ~t thi~ Iin~ in ti-~ bull ~ he next secti~n w~ an~lvse the n~ture nF

~icAn~nv Fr ~dimiddots ~le in n~velnt7ent Ci~ CfT~fPshyie s f~r lOse (Ttastnlt~n cllev r tliuc~t fln~ lev~J~l7ent n) c 1Trr ~1 Hi1l Medl Tittle ~e+fa (PlChinp~nmiddot 4CarlpTv ~ Cducti=nll )eve1trent 104 )

middot~tes middotfTtiT1S fr Mei~ T)pliv~-rv in Q T-rTttnn e nst 7ffectieneS5 c ni -ta~cp TP~CtM~ (T~T c ~CC0 l d tn

atST AVAILABLE CQP1

~

the ecnnmric returns tn each prn~raft

~ The Private Returns fr~ the Pr~p~~ed Pr~1ect

Ideally we would li~e to both identify ~nd qu~ntiFy the returns t~ the three ~rojects ~here ~~e sever~l reas~ns why this i9 not feasihle at present These c~n be illustrated fairly well usin~ the teacher trainin2 activity as ~ case in p~int The n~her of te~cher~ wh~se s~tll~ will he up~rad2d and the ch~n~e in te~cher skill levels resulttn~ er~~ the prnnsen pr~1ect c~nn~~ lJe estirr~~ed t IT vat lah le dC1t ~ Yet ~u~nd tqti ve dC1tC1 are necessary prerequisites fnr henefit QuantiFic~tt~n While the ~attonal Asses~ent pr~vided sever~l suhjectv~y dete~ined rreasures nf teacher c~~petency in 10 7n the sa~plin~ pr~cedures userl in this ~tudv aTe nnt cnnducive to ~eneraliz~tion at a ngtionll level 1 ire~se the ahse~fgt f middotmiddot~itative data nn the qhi1ttv ~F ~ rfrm such as thnl pr~pnsed by TVPK t~ ch~n~e ~kill levels ~eqns thMt nn ~uantit~tive hase exists Fnr esti~atinp e effects ~f teacher trqining nn the skills aCQu~rfgtn hJ students

An ~ddittrnal c~mplicat~n is ntr~duced hv the eed t~ istinguish he~ween pntential ~nn ~ctud1 n~lt1-Cipllti~n ill t1e three pr~graTTs Given the USf f the PALAPA satell J tes and C1n effective set nf 2r~unn st~~i~n tle D~te~til audience cusistl rf ~11 scI (11 teqchers T QUC11ificati~ns ~elnw thse ultTT~tel~judge~ C1deauate ~v the Mi~i strv Plt it seerrs clear that the actuC11 eneficiaries vd il he a frC1ction ~f the ptential Lac of inf~~atin rn pr~~raTT availahilitv the presence nf per---ns wit h ~ultiole jChs the rresencf nf SrTTe oers~n~ WkQ d nt speu the nationl lC1n~ua~e and re1~ted fact~rs are all li~elv t~ cnntri~ute t~ li~tted ~r~2r~~ usage at least in the first few years ~f the pr~jec~ Once ~~in hrwe~er the lac~ of prior experience ~1th a dis ~nc~ training p~2ra~ precludes a reas~na~le ~uesstiTTate of h~w many persons ~ill qctuallv he re~chp~

A t~tT~ c(nsiderati~n is als~ rele~~nt in the c~se ~f the fir5t and third C1T~nents (t tle tlr~ject (te~cJfgtT u-r~ad ig and nn - f~rCll educqt i ~n) Tn TT~S~ c~n~i c studies ne educ~ttnq1 svsteTTs chqngps ~n enuc~~i~q tratni nf Ire usuall v eauqtpo bull Ji th chmp-es n tMrni ngs and itlc~TTes tn the case e the ~lTent Trn 1ect thi c i c n~t p~ssihle TM~se whC u2r~de ~heir s~ils AS ~e~cJfgtr~ Ti 1 nCtt he ~ilJen a certifictti~n f th~l e~netencv th~t c~n he used t r~ise their calqreQ tns~e~~ th~

BtS r AVAIUBLE COP

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 6: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

schools the children questioned had nn texthonk ~t all at the se~nndarv level nnlv in nne third ~~ the sch~~l~ did eveT~nE h1ve q hflrlt of iIP ldnd (I Tn thp rTE ur~anize~ prflvincps the ~ption~l Asses~ent ~~und pn avera~e of ~R children in each 2T~dp CA~~T~~= thp fi~ure dlopppd tr- I~ in the rural nT~vincp~ n~A~itp this fact 1A- ~f Rll scbo~l~ in the urh~i~en ~r~ViCPA and 5h in the state schnnls hpn heen unahle tr ~cce~t all ~ppllcants ~ostlv for l~c~ nf s~~cp (~) Tn ~~ ~F the schrolr in the pronrer prflvincP~f ~vErcrninp Atm~shyrentlv 4ntErfered with thE ~tudents wfr~ ~nn ~~h teacher bull

Of sDed~l cflncern is tJe Cluesttn IIf tu~1i~ishyc~tinns ~f the te~chers Tn ~n e~~luati ~ t~e rp~ult~ Cf thE Nlt=t1 nal As~esSTTent TIeehv sU2~est-pn th~t lehppn ~n ef) ~ f f e ~ri1Tarv schflo 1 tpacher~ hap ei theT ~u CPG e(iUeltin ~nd tr=lin1n~ rr the eaptl1l1pnt- The situ~ti~n ~=IS wor~e At the secrndarv lpvel wherE clsp t )n~ of the teachers had nfl ne2ree at all pnn ~anv n~ th~ rest ~prr teachin~ ~t the sa~e levEl t-hev h~d ~ChiEvp~ in thlir ~rl sch(ltlillg At the secno1rv lElrE V J ~middotEe tau~Jt in a cnte~t middotJere (wer crl~ ~f thE tepcrETs middotarp qU1l i fi e~

~h~ ~~PCsed ~r~ject will tnv~lve ~pvpr~l ~rqT~~shyratic ch~n2e~ de~igned to un~r~de th~ nu~li~v ~ Trl~np~i~n enuc~ti~n ~nd t nclE~~e the c~untrvs C~~~tv t-~ r~~c~ its l~rge ~nd f1r flun~ n~~ul~t~n ~s~pnti~lv this ~~ 1 ~ he ~cc~nlishen thrru~h thrpflt rp1 ~te ~ct1 rl H p~ I) An i~structi0n~ lHrlin tr~inn~ nr~~r~~ Fnr t-e~c~pr~ designeci tC ~llrnJ those desipnctpd ~~ seTi -aual ~prl ~s u l1lified l to Urqr~rJe t-heil ~Irlls ( An

pen jl1l secrndnTv eductirn tr2r~ ~T t-h~~e ~t the juninl secnd~rv scr~~l level ~nd (1) A ~r~r~~ F

n~n-flTT11 fduc~ti nn des-[gnen t UT2r~rle t-he vlri JS ~ bull c

lC7els If the l~steninR ~uoience

4 7h rffectiveness ~f Alternative ~echn~l(1g~~ ~r ~istnce Te~chi~R

~n n~v7inq ~ or1ect c nFieur~t~n n~ thp tv~P envisi~ned 1 7m- it is u~e~ul t- c~n~iri-=r the re1~t~H~ effectimiddotmiddotene~~ nf the ~ltern~tp Er-lucJtn~l ef~ Recent Te~p~lch h~s f~cuseri n~p v~r4nus re~ ~F ~hp rldi rrtl t-er ~eni~ in 1rlTTt-jn~ Hct~ncp 1e~tn4n~ Tn ~ rev e- ~c lJdi oTiects (c~~Inv ~Ent-i np ~-fp iT

roles for radio in delleloptrent~middot rOtrp~rrltile dat~ ~re avail~hle in ~ rpcent sturlv ~v ~p~ et~l ~~ in ~ interestj ng hClOl v ~chr~fTITT ~he~E ~nn ~ther ~~urli p ~ shed SO(gt light nn tnp iTrrt~n(t (If rrlrH ~~ 1 ~ CClst hut cOTparltiveJ v effectivE EducrlH(In~1 t(l~1 P-ut virtu~llv 11 ~f thp studis ~UQgP~t th~t visu1 ~u~~1p-1tentation) hethEr in thE (tTT ft Tnrl~f~~ tP~thnl~ r mietlgr~pn aids t~ I necpss~v sUtlTll ~pnf tn the i~shytructiC 1 llclr~f7p

Recp~t interest h~s F~eu~ed ~n tne usP n~ C~g~Ettp~ and nh~n~r~ph reocnrds tlS In altern~tile tn tnp hign capit~l ensts ot instJling ~ r~di0 ~ci1itv ~pcent wCrt- hv B~t( c n~~ shn~1fl th~t e~ch (1 thE TTpcii ~ n~ ~ d ~pshyrent cldmiddotmiddot1ntle mci tn1t v+lc h 5 tne 1 e~~t c nQtl v lo 1 1 depend unn thp size and distrihuti~n ~ thp ~udiencr tc he reachedmiddotr- hp ~~tes study tpnns tn ~Ir n~t-Hmiddotmiddotshytion~ radiG fnr its inex~ensivenEs in tE~chin2 1~r2p Iudiencps its ahilitv tn re~ch ~n entirE Tl~u1tirn a~ri ~t~ iedi~cv In the llttpr rEv~rri rlrHn i~ uepul r r latin cursp Cf study t current eVEMts ~~ ~ V( ic Ie thrnur which irrPtTI VPTpnts in inctrucfi fln cln he intrCldted relatively r~Tlidlv Inri ~s ~ vphicle t~rnU~h middotmiddot~h icr t~C -~v fppdhflc 1 1 n in stUc turE c~n hp ~ ntT~urpci r 1 the nrgativr ide q tes nttps th~t rEsp~rc ~U2~P~f~ tr1f r~di~ is M diffitult TTedilIT t(l le~rn frTT th~t Ie ers lack cCntrrl rver the PICE (If fI r~rii r irOT~T ~nd t~ev ~~~ c~nstrMined t l~stEn ~t A ~ixp~ tiTTP

A si~ilar Mn~1vsis could ~e TT~dE r E~cn (1F thp pltenti~l deliv v veticles envlsi~ned hv TtT ~ut gi VPT1

the l~r~e nlIT~er ~f nutputs envisi~ned in ~hi~ ~~~er this is i~o~~sihle The ~nint tn ~e TTI~e herE i~ t~~t t~p ~cst ~fficiert tec~nCl(lgv pAck~2e ~ill v~rv n(1th ncr~~ pr()ject~ 1nd regie-ns Phlt is nee ned is crlreful pi 1 t project using Srerll di fferent del iverv TTndps 11 e rl hv ~ cre~ul CIJuti(ln cf tnE efEctivEMe~S flf ep(~ at thr cnclu~in It is virtu~llv iTTpnssihle tn iud2E tp effectieness f Tt(pV~ deli1erv str~te2ip~ ~t thi~ Iin~ in ti-~ bull ~ he next secti~n w~ an~lvse the n~ture nF

~icAn~nv Fr ~dimiddots ~le in n~velnt7ent Ci~ CfT~fPshyie s f~r lOse (Ttastnlt~n cllev r tliuc~t fln~ lev~J~l7ent n) c 1Trr ~1 Hi1l Medl Tittle ~e+fa (PlChinp~nmiddot 4CarlpTv ~ Cducti=nll )eve1trent 104 )

middot~tes middotfTtiT1S fr Mei~ T)pliv~-rv in Q T-rTttnn e nst 7ffectieneS5 c ni -ta~cp TP~CtM~ (T~T c ~CC0 l d tn

atST AVAILABLE CQP1

~

the ecnnmric returns tn each prn~raft

~ The Private Returns fr~ the Pr~p~~ed Pr~1ect

Ideally we would li~e to both identify ~nd qu~ntiFy the returns t~ the three ~rojects ~here ~~e sever~l reas~ns why this i9 not feasihle at present These c~n be illustrated fairly well usin~ the teacher trainin2 activity as ~ case in p~int The n~her of te~cher~ wh~se s~tll~ will he up~rad2d and the ch~n~e in te~cher skill levels resulttn~ er~~ the prnnsen pr~1ect c~nn~~ lJe estirr~~ed t IT vat lah le dC1t ~ Yet ~u~nd tqti ve dC1tC1 are necessary prerequisites fnr henefit QuantiFic~tt~n While the ~attonal Asses~ent pr~vided sever~l suhjectv~y dete~ined rreasures nf teacher c~~petency in 10 7n the sa~plin~ pr~cedures userl in this ~tudv aTe nnt cnnducive to ~eneraliz~tion at a ngtionll level 1 ire~se the ahse~fgt f middotmiddot~itative data nn the qhi1ttv ~F ~ rfrm such as thnl pr~pnsed by TVPK t~ ch~n~e ~kill levels ~eqns thMt nn ~uantit~tive hase exists Fnr esti~atinp e effects ~f teacher trqining nn the skills aCQu~rfgtn hJ students

An ~ddittrnal c~mplicat~n is ntr~duced hv the eed t~ istinguish he~ween pntential ~nn ~ctud1 n~lt1-Cipllti~n ill t1e three pr~graTTs Given the USf f the PALAPA satell J tes and C1n effective set nf 2r~unn st~~i~n tle D~te~til audience cusistl rf ~11 scI (11 teqchers T QUC11ificati~ns ~elnw thse ultTT~tel~judge~ C1deauate ~v the Mi~i strv Plt it seerrs clear that the actuC11 eneficiaries vd il he a frC1ction ~f the ptential Lac of inf~~atin rn pr~~raTT availahilitv the presence nf per---ns wit h ~ultiole jChs the rresencf nf SrTTe oers~n~ WkQ d nt speu the nationl lC1n~ua~e and re1~ted fact~rs are all li~elv t~ cnntri~ute t~ li~tted ~r~2r~~ usage at least in the first few years ~f the pr~jec~ Once ~~in hrwe~er the lac~ of prior experience ~1th a dis ~nc~ training p~2ra~ precludes a reas~na~le ~uesstiTTate of h~w many persons ~ill qctuallv he re~chp~

A t~tT~ c(nsiderati~n is als~ rele~~nt in the c~se ~f the fir5t and third C1T~nents (t tle tlr~ject (te~cJfgtT u-r~ad ig and nn - f~rCll educqt i ~n) Tn TT~S~ c~n~i c studies ne educ~ttnq1 svsteTTs chqngps ~n enuc~~i~q tratni nf Ire usuall v eauqtpo bull Ji th chmp-es n tMrni ngs and itlc~TTes tn the case e the ~lTent Trn 1ect thi c i c n~t p~ssihle TM~se whC u2r~de ~heir s~ils AS ~e~cJfgtr~ Ti 1 nCtt he ~ilJen a certifictti~n f th~l e~netencv th~t c~n he used t r~ise their calqreQ tns~e~~ th~

BtS r AVAIUBLE COP

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 7: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

roles for radio in delleloptrent~middot rOtrp~rrltile dat~ ~re avail~hle in ~ rpcent sturlv ~v ~p~ et~l ~~ in ~ interestj ng hClOl v ~chr~fTITT ~he~E ~nn ~ther ~~urli p ~ shed SO(gt light nn tnp iTrrt~n(t (If rrlrH ~~ 1 ~ CClst hut cOTparltiveJ v effectivE EducrlH(In~1 t(l~1 P-ut virtu~llv 11 ~f thp studis ~UQgP~t th~t visu1 ~u~~1p-1tentation) hethEr in thE (tTT ft Tnrl~f~~ tP~thnl~ r mietlgr~pn aids t~ I necpss~v sUtlTll ~pnf tn the i~shytructiC 1 llclr~f7p

Recp~t interest h~s F~eu~ed ~n tne usP n~ C~g~Ettp~ and nh~n~r~ph reocnrds tlS In altern~tile tn tnp hign capit~l ensts ot instJling ~ r~di0 ~ci1itv ~pcent wCrt- hv B~t( c n~~ shn~1fl th~t e~ch (1 thE TTpcii ~ n~ ~ d ~pshyrent cldmiddotmiddot1ntle mci tn1t v+lc h 5 tne 1 e~~t c nQtl v lo 1 1 depend unn thp size and distrihuti~n ~ thp ~udiencr tc he reachedmiddotr- hp ~~tes study tpnns tn ~Ir n~t-Hmiddotmiddotshytion~ radiG fnr its inex~ensivenEs in tE~chin2 1~r2p Iudiencps its ahilitv tn re~ch ~n entirE Tl~u1tirn a~ri ~t~ iedi~cv In the llttpr rEv~rri rlrHn i~ uepul r r latin cursp Cf study t current eVEMts ~~ ~ V( ic Ie thrnur which irrPtTI VPTpnts in inctrucfi fln cln he intrCldted relatively r~Tlidlv Inri ~s ~ vphicle t~rnU~h middotmiddot~h icr t~C -~v fppdhflc 1 1 n in stUc turE c~n hp ~ ntT~urpci r 1 the nrgativr ide q tes nttps th~t rEsp~rc ~U2~P~f~ tr1f r~di~ is M diffitult TTedilIT t(l le~rn frTT th~t Ie ers lack cCntrrl rver the PICE (If fI r~rii r irOT~T ~nd t~ev ~~~ c~nstrMined t l~stEn ~t A ~ixp~ tiTTP

A si~ilar Mn~1vsis could ~e TT~dE r E~cn (1F thp pltenti~l deliv v veticles envlsi~ned hv TtT ~ut gi VPT1

the l~r~e nlIT~er ~f nutputs envisi~ned in ~hi~ ~~~er this is i~o~~sihle The ~nint tn ~e TTI~e herE i~ t~~t t~p ~cst ~fficiert tec~nCl(lgv pAck~2e ~ill v~rv n(1th ncr~~ pr()ject~ 1nd regie-ns Phlt is nee ned is crlreful pi 1 t project using Srerll di fferent del iverv TTndps 11 e rl hv ~ cre~ul CIJuti(ln cf tnE efEctivEMe~S flf ep(~ at thr cnclu~in It is virtu~llv iTTpnssihle tn iud2E tp effectieness f Tt(pV~ deli1erv str~te2ip~ ~t thi~ Iin~ in ti-~ bull ~ he next secti~n w~ an~lvse the n~ture nF

~icAn~nv Fr ~dimiddots ~le in n~velnt7ent Ci~ CfT~fPshyie s f~r lOse (Ttastnlt~n cllev r tliuc~t fln~ lev~J~l7ent n) c 1Trr ~1 Hi1l Medl Tittle ~e+fa (PlChinp~nmiddot 4CarlpTv ~ Cducti=nll )eve1trent 104 )

middot~tes middotfTtiT1S fr Mei~ T)pliv~-rv in Q T-rTttnn e nst 7ffectieneS5 c ni -ta~cp TP~CtM~ (T~T c ~CC0 l d tn

atST AVAILABLE CQP1

~

the ecnnmric returns tn each prn~raft

~ The Private Returns fr~ the Pr~p~~ed Pr~1ect

Ideally we would li~e to both identify ~nd qu~ntiFy the returns t~ the three ~rojects ~here ~~e sever~l reas~ns why this i9 not feasihle at present These c~n be illustrated fairly well usin~ the teacher trainin2 activity as ~ case in p~int The n~her of te~cher~ wh~se s~tll~ will he up~rad2d and the ch~n~e in te~cher skill levels resulttn~ er~~ the prnnsen pr~1ect c~nn~~ lJe estirr~~ed t IT vat lah le dC1t ~ Yet ~u~nd tqti ve dC1tC1 are necessary prerequisites fnr henefit QuantiFic~tt~n While the ~attonal Asses~ent pr~vided sever~l suhjectv~y dete~ined rreasures nf teacher c~~petency in 10 7n the sa~plin~ pr~cedures userl in this ~tudv aTe nnt cnnducive to ~eneraliz~tion at a ngtionll level 1 ire~se the ahse~fgt f middotmiddot~itative data nn the qhi1ttv ~F ~ rfrm such as thnl pr~pnsed by TVPK t~ ch~n~e ~kill levels ~eqns thMt nn ~uantit~tive hase exists Fnr esti~atinp e effects ~f teacher trqining nn the skills aCQu~rfgtn hJ students

An ~ddittrnal c~mplicat~n is ntr~duced hv the eed t~ istinguish he~ween pntential ~nn ~ctud1 n~lt1-Cipllti~n ill t1e three pr~graTTs Given the USf f the PALAPA satell J tes and C1n effective set nf 2r~unn st~~i~n tle D~te~til audience cusistl rf ~11 scI (11 teqchers T QUC11ificati~ns ~elnw thse ultTT~tel~judge~ C1deauate ~v the Mi~i strv Plt it seerrs clear that the actuC11 eneficiaries vd il he a frC1ction ~f the ptential Lac of inf~~atin rn pr~~raTT availahilitv the presence nf per---ns wit h ~ultiole jChs the rresencf nf SrTTe oers~n~ WkQ d nt speu the nationl lC1n~ua~e and re1~ted fact~rs are all li~elv t~ cnntri~ute t~ li~tted ~r~2r~~ usage at least in the first few years ~f the pr~jec~ Once ~~in hrwe~er the lac~ of prior experience ~1th a dis ~nc~ training p~2ra~ precludes a reas~na~le ~uesstiTTate of h~w many persons ~ill qctuallv he re~chp~

A t~tT~ c(nsiderati~n is als~ rele~~nt in the c~se ~f the fir5t and third C1T~nents (t tle tlr~ject (te~cJfgtT u-r~ad ig and nn - f~rCll educqt i ~n) Tn TT~S~ c~n~i c studies ne educ~ttnq1 svsteTTs chqngps ~n enuc~~i~q tratni nf Ire usuall v eauqtpo bull Ji th chmp-es n tMrni ngs and itlc~TTes tn the case e the ~lTent Trn 1ect thi c i c n~t p~ssihle TM~se whC u2r~de ~heir s~ils AS ~e~cJfgtr~ Ti 1 nCtt he ~ilJen a certifictti~n f th~l e~netencv th~t c~n he used t r~ise their calqreQ tns~e~~ th~

BtS r AVAIUBLE COP

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 8: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

~

the ecnnmric returns tn each prn~raft

~ The Private Returns fr~ the Pr~p~~ed Pr~1ect

Ideally we would li~e to both identify ~nd qu~ntiFy the returns t~ the three ~rojects ~here ~~e sever~l reas~ns why this i9 not feasihle at present These c~n be illustrated fairly well usin~ the teacher trainin2 activity as ~ case in p~int The n~her of te~cher~ wh~se s~tll~ will he up~rad2d and the ch~n~e in te~cher skill levels resulttn~ er~~ the prnnsen pr~1ect c~nn~~ lJe estirr~~ed t IT vat lah le dC1t ~ Yet ~u~nd tqti ve dC1tC1 are necessary prerequisites fnr henefit QuantiFic~tt~n While the ~attonal Asses~ent pr~vided sever~l suhjectv~y dete~ined rreasures nf teacher c~~petency in 10 7n the sa~plin~ pr~cedures userl in this ~tudv aTe nnt cnnducive to ~eneraliz~tion at a ngtionll level 1 ire~se the ahse~fgt f middotmiddot~itative data nn the qhi1ttv ~F ~ rfrm such as thnl pr~pnsed by TVPK t~ ch~n~e ~kill levels ~eqns thMt nn ~uantit~tive hase exists Fnr esti~atinp e effects ~f teacher trqining nn the skills aCQu~rfgtn hJ students

An ~ddittrnal c~mplicat~n is ntr~duced hv the eed t~ istinguish he~ween pntential ~nn ~ctud1 n~lt1-Cipllti~n ill t1e three pr~graTTs Given the USf f the PALAPA satell J tes and C1n effective set nf 2r~unn st~~i~n tle D~te~til audience cusistl rf ~11 scI (11 teqchers T QUC11ificati~ns ~elnw thse ultTT~tel~judge~ C1deauate ~v the Mi~i strv Plt it seerrs clear that the actuC11 eneficiaries vd il he a frC1ction ~f the ptential Lac of inf~~atin rn pr~~raTT availahilitv the presence nf per---ns wit h ~ultiole jChs the rresencf nf SrTTe oers~n~ WkQ d nt speu the nationl lC1n~ua~e and re1~ted fact~rs are all li~elv t~ cnntri~ute t~ li~tted ~r~2r~~ usage at least in the first few years ~f the pr~jec~ Once ~~in hrwe~er the lac~ of prior experience ~1th a dis ~nc~ training p~2ra~ precludes a reas~na~le ~uesstiTTate of h~w many persons ~ill qctuallv he re~chp~

A t~tT~ c(nsiderati~n is als~ rele~~nt in the c~se ~f the fir5t and third C1T~nents (t tle tlr~ject (te~cJfgtT u-r~ad ig and nn - f~rCll educqt i ~n) Tn TT~S~ c~n~i c studies ne educ~ttnq1 svsteTTs chqngps ~n enuc~~i~q tratni nf Ire usuall v eauqtpo bull Ji th chmp-es n tMrni ngs and itlc~TTes tn the case e the ~lTent Trn 1ect thi c i c n~t p~ssihle TM~se whC u2r~de ~heir s~ils AS ~e~cJfgtr~ Ti 1 nCtt he ~ilJen a certifictti~n f th~l e~netencv th~t c~n he used t r~ise their calqreQ tns~e~~ th~

BtS r AVAIUBLE COP

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 9: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

cur~ent ~lan is t~ t~inate those whos skills rp judgd t~ he iradequRte and t~ prnvtd~ no increase in pay t~ thnse whn up~rade their s~1l1~ Thus ~Asur~ri by a salrv critrinn n0 incra~e tn ~rnductivitv ~CCUT~ There is no priv~te heneftt The ~rhle~ nF the rplAshytinn hetween sAlaries and ~rnductivitv is An i~~rtAnt one S~e students nf the rndnne~tAn schrn1 sv~tP~ su~~e~t that the salArie~ ~4irl tn tpRch~rs hv the Tnrinn~shysian ~vernTerlt Are t~n l~ll tn ~etTTtt tE~chrs tn hnlrf nlv nn~ jn~ In lOiS Fnr ~x~~nlp the AvprApe ri~ATV schn~l teacher e~Tned ~1Qn Tler veRT At the ~Pcnn~Arv level the figures were ~~qn At the ler lpv~l anri S81n ~t the upper level The~e SAlAries ~re s~t hv thp Ind~nebLan gver~ent And heAT little tf Anv relatinn tn ~nrl~ltr nr~riuctivit-v The d11Ar rH FFprentlals Attr~ut~~le t~ ~ducAtin~l rlifFerences ~ven iF thr ~~vernrmiddot~t were t~ recnenize A nrnductvitv differentiAl due t~ th~ 0nerAtinn nf thp r~1ect wuld nT~Ahv ~p a very [nAccurAte ~easure nf th~ rl~11Ar VAlue F the pr~jer~ since it w~uld he difficult tn relAte the lncr~middot Je ill the Tcrsnn s Tlr~ducti vl tv t the ch1neec in his r hel earnines

In the CjSp f nn-fLTTAl prpTATTC the Tndeg(lleT ie rE cl=riu5 t the nresent ti p the cu~ce c nt~nr f the n-frr~l Dr~grrllTs is nnt ~ell-ripfinerl rlprh the ~~r~et VAlue f the nr~er~T wll ~enpnd At le~st in pArt n T-l~ich curse~ Are selecteri Here I2jn t-hp ahsence ~f ~ ce~tiF~c~te 0~ successful r~T~l~tin ~s li1el t result in educClti(ln frtm this sIuree teceivinp little tf an~ mar~et (ie sAlAry) recenitin This is ~(It t~ infer that the project ~ill h~ve nn nrii~irluAl (r sciAl ~enefits Indeed a study ~F nn~n~~l erluc~shytim in (gtl~middotlia c(lnducted hv several TTer-I-ers nF ur tp~rshysugges_s that a Tlrnject (IF this tvpe crln incrpase CAit~ ac llTuLIti0n a 1 i~pr~ve livine cnnditicns in rurll ~rp]s InsteAd these ~hservati0ns Are designed t~ SU22est th~t (Juantific middotn f these tv~es nf heneFts s difficult and li~elv t lead t~ lnw ~easure~ return~ if the trArlshytir ~l sAl~rv TeASUr~s are erpl(lved tn qu~ntitv ~enpflt~

~e~~u~~~ ~f the (Ju~ntitArlve effects r (JuAit~tivp -= ~ I ~ P middots I rei n h ( r ~ n t 1 v ri i f fi C u 1 t t F TT U 1 Ate t n 4 (1 u ~ n t r v ~n pu-t this is because nf rre~~urerrent frrlhlP1Tsmiddot in T~Ttshyit reflects tle len2t~ nf t~e reure~ t qe ch~n~p~ in e~rn1ee ~ j tn relte thE-TO tn tle e~Fectf tf tt~ildTl~ ~r~gtrs In the CAse nf the te~chet ttAtninq r2r~ th~ riecisin t~ UngrArie t~AcheT~ Anti tn rp~ve t-hnqp ~h FAil r~ narticipA~e in thp rn2tA- Mil hAve nnlv ~ini-~ (IS~-middotmiddotJ ~~fects nn tr~ininlt in t~p shnrr run hc it

BEST AVAILABLE COPt

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 10: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

because ~anv ~ersnns with un~raded skills will cntinue t~ h~ld j~hs ~t the s~~e ~AV levpl Rut it is ~SM becPlus~ sTTle Cf these TersCns ] 1 hCld ~everPll 1 JR and spend relatively little t~~ in e~ch A 07~ sturiv nf 71~ teachprs hv nRrCes~~n ffunrl th~t ~~ nf thsp ~t the state seh~ls held ~ 1(1~ ~ hplrf jfls etnri held 4 ~r ~nre 1ns ~t tlp ~rivRte schn~ls t~p c(l~~etr~shyble fi~ures ar~ 2Q ~~ 8rid ~ 0ver~11 ahfut q~ nF thnse in the study held secnnd js The nepd FfT thesp pprs~n~ tf divide thpir ti~e ~~fn~ seveT~l jS wil al~ost cert~inlv Te~uce the ~ualitv nf the educ~tn prnvide1 their students unless ref(lm~ c~n Ip effectprf which Tr~vi1e i~~enttve~ Ffr te~chers tf ~pvte ~rp ti~e Plnd effptn tp~c~tng a li~ited set (If ~turfent~ In tnp sense rjescrled jrve s~11 uTler~(Hng is ~ neees~rv hut nft ~ sufficient c~n~itifn ~r i~Tlrnvn~ e~ucRt1(1n~1 instructi0n tn Ind~ne~~ The incentfvp svste~ ~ust al s te rpstructure-f t enClrmiddot1ee ~ttpntin t~ nr~r~r~ti~n ffr classr~~ tp~chine ~r ~t 1p~~t t~ ech~Mt7e thfs~ vhf teac1 Tel

One ~e~sure ~f th~ nri~~rv tenpttts ~f t~e r~ni tr~in~ p~~r~~ Jt the junr sec~nj~rv level c~n ~p CTTput-pr as rer ~sent_ng tlp ~ fFITPnCe eteen w~~t tle r~ ns c~~ nle~ ng trese Trmiddotqr1~s recpi ve ~S1 resul t C f the rrer ~ncJ ~7hat t~pv 1(Iul-i r~ve recp Vlrf

in its atse~ce At nresent t~e rr~jpct inv~lves t~e i~iti~1 tr~ining ~F ~~~~ srudents ~n ~inp ~c~f~ls ~t rresenr ~H~e r~tp ~ifferenri~ls this c~rTnent f thp prn~ra~ ~~ Id hJve ~~nefitc(lst rRti~ (IF less th~n ut the r~ti~ middotuld rise if ~ larger or~r~~ bull 7~S ~n~p in the future It see~s clear rlat at le~st in rhp e~rl~ years rf the rr~~r~~ the heneFits t t~e i~nvishydUClls in th~ s prngrar are 1 tre] v t re sr~ eien ~i gh uner-pl ent rlt1tes ~nrl 11101 rli fferpnt ~1 s pt7een t~e salaries f junifr sec~ndarv gr~rluRte~ ~n~ thlse Mit rriTmiddot~rv sch1 educati n9 As rhe rle~~nri F~r thse ~it~ technic~l ~n~ V~c~tin~l s~ils rises ps~ec~ fn the ~iddle ~nd late lOAns s~IRr~ different~l~ right he exnected tf nere~~~ ~ut ~t rhp U9U~ ~3c~unt r~tes Jsemiddottn turiies ~F this tvflP (7 1n~ ) r~e deFA~~ ~~ ~r~eF~s five ve~r5 ~ut M~Uri p 10~ - 1~~ Rnd tenve~1C 1 ~ulri he ~ - (7 -huc Pl~llPri in Tlrpsent v~ 0 thp ttR henpFi to r~cu t n2 Fr tr 0

tlr(gr~i are n 11 1e 1 v t- he ver-v 1 )Ile tpctusp thp tP

rplt~ed JJrlv ~r in tlp futurf

-utl llt1r~psr1n middotmiddot1~ncn2 l-ducRti~nmiddot P~Tt I ~ul1pHn r Ininesitn )tumiddotLeos ~~ve ller 1)7 TI ~7

BEST AVA1Lll9LE COpy

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 11: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

On ~alance this analysis su~~e9ts that th~ ~rv~t enefits fr~ the nr~nscd pr(lject ~t 1 eAst as TTE~cmre ri in t~is sectinn are nt ll~elv t~ he lar2e tn thp next five ve~rs This is n(lt ~nlv hec~usp f the measureTent prllerrs invIlvprf lut alamp leca1Jse F the aT)sence ~f a T~r~et r oIdTtni~trattve RvsteTT F(Ir rEc~p-nishyzin~ thp u~~radin~ f individual ~~ill~ ~h~ulrl such a svsteTT le inl~pnted nur cnclust(ln~ ~uld 1~ altErrl

~ ~e Scial BeneFits rf the p~~~E~ Pr1ect

he Jenerits descril~rl ~lnvE accrue TtiTlar 1 v t t~e ditect leneficiarfes nf the r~ject thE sturipn~s an~ teachers at which t~e nrrject is ~i~ed In add~in there re 1i~eJv tmiddot he hner-its t the Tndne~ian ~nciet which ~uJd nt Je captureri ~v the earJi~r TTeasurEs Tn ~hisMse~ti~n ~~ exnlnre ~evera f the TTrre f(Irtant henp~ t s

Redur d rT~de Rppet ti(In

A present the renetiti~n ra~e ~ a~nut ~ PET year at the urrrarv Jevel Arxirratelv 4 rrillinn rircn scl~l nlaces rlnnnn juniIr RPcndarv sc-onnl rlaces and ~~1nn unrer secndar~ nJaces are (Icctlniprl hy student5 ~I are refleating a IZrade At leAst in naTt the fai1ur~ r these students t c~ulpte thefr tT~i~inr-i~ due t(l t~r r instructinn pt~viden ~v thpir tp~chpr~ Tie upgra(H~ rrngrarr nrnrser in this n=iner If succp~sFul ~uld reduce thE nurrJer f retet~rs Tl tin the schl ~vstermiddot ~he~e reductinns w~uld he reFlected i~ ~ne ~ ~re f t~e F~11n~ing wavs (1) ~ewer teachers ~ulrl h~ reau i tn tpach t-oe s]e n~Jer (If sturients S A

r ~ tp C ~5t ner student enucatpd ~rul rl Flll ~nri Tn-jnpsiCl uld r~lize l ~enefit tn the FtTT f Func ~~ai1a~le fr ~tJer scci~ flr~gr~s nr redu~ed taxps (2) M~te student ~laces wnuJd ~nen u~ in th~ scnls As ~ result re students cnuld le ~~ttterl fnr ~uc~t~n ~ith1t an increa~e in either c~~ital nr current invEst~pnt In rhscase t c~st~tu~enr rlt i ~ul~ ~lsn Fall

e rilnfrud --F tese (ffec~c s di rr cuI t tn pctiTTItP

Tn tle r~~p clsoth~ ecn~ic henEFit rEsult~nt ~r~T- rEduce~ rp~eH tinn Tuli ~ te Ii 1 1 ~~ valuE nF t~e ~st-~~v~ng~ resulttng rr~~ rpduc1n~ the r~9urcp~ ucpri ~v thp ~~~iectmiddot ~ the lattpr c~ce thp Jenpfit wu1~ ~p te ipc~erent in sI1 aT pc rece i v~~ ~ thn~e ~ navp Icce ss t ~~uc t n T-~ te~middoti ce 07u1 ri nt n_c1gt pt CUTDC

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 12: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

d~ ~~t pr~vtie the S~W~ ri~11~r estiw~t~ ~r ~eneFit~ rnT 4t le~st tw~ re~s~ns (1) the c~st-s~~in2s will ~e leq~ th~ thp d~llfr ~)enl=tts F scllinq iF the lnefitshyCflst rfti~ f~r sl~01 ine ~xcepd~ 1 1tf () th~ FrTTI1 ~e~sure will n~~ c~rture thf s~vn~~ tn ~cietv ~ccruin~ ecause- tiTp is nl ~~pr ~i~p l1l t stunv I

su~ject ~nre t~~n rncp (fe t~e pr~0ctin ri~p 1n~r ~y ~rfde rep~titin) while t~p l~tt~r ~ill Tt is diFficull t ~othr~te tle Iqniturfp l~ eithpr ~et r heneti~~ ~~h(ut ettpr rll=lt1 n thp rfllti~~h4n ~etlp temiddotcher aU11itv 1tI gn~rIe tnpr-itin

~pJucc1 r~P0ut ~l=Ite~

Tn~npsia h~sl frtirlv hitJ 1rut rIt~ in it~ PTt~~~V ~nd lr~pr ~pcnd~rv qchnls Accr~inq t~ f ~tudv nF the 0 rriJli nl ~turJent~ Ih entPTPri vr1rfp in ~ - ~ 1 r~ h~d cJ1TTPf ~at in tJ sECnl ~1lriP l~ in tho tIl gr-de In in thp -t ~rl1 rnlv - r~ the rmiddot middot11 cnhrt Ictu111 ITI1UAtE1 1=1

lri~v ~ch n ~d ~nl 1 ~p pnt prp ~cnrlrv sc~ l fir cur~r-gt s e middot-f t1 drnTtltlt 11 5Ul~(Hl(ntl llImiddot r~t-lllne~l t C~rTlJptp their scmiddotling lut thp nun~pr c

f U~middotplv t ~ve he l1rf

-hn re1cJet tr~nln~ Ttlr1T ch ul r hjlJe sp (I~~pcf n tie dtr1t r~tE ~ cucce~crul hi S tll t1

t11J~ F ~tudEnt5 Clre middot ti~It-p~ nrnnuf f sch I~C1l3 -F 1u11 te1cig TrfITlv TTPTllLe~ le~~n~ r rTmiddot~~rltin it their te(lr~ Ililitv t telc~ till

Icr ~l 11 )I- r f-1 e~srns ~isclJ~cel in tJ( cpcti n ~t~~rv Ienef~ts unlpss refTT~ rlTe ~1(gt in tl~ eiucl t r cvcte- t~~ unsn1ni ng TrgrJ- i ~ un 1p 1 v 111 A I~~ er-~Ect n le nurtlitmiddotJ f rhe euclt- n Trmiddot~ie~ v 1 c~ 1 re~chers A re~ucfi n in tle nrT utshy~~Ite l~cp(~lt pprciEnc i the sensp th1t A l~rqEr

nltr- 1Pl nF srudents tJJn JS re~nuslv fIcs~Jlp c~n c1r1ptp rpr t~t1C~t rlt r-E ~1~P c~t Thi c ITCICUItgt d f ~ t t S f T t ~ e PJ r 1 e l rm e i nth 1 t the ri f n i n 1 t ric n~t stuen~s rlt~cnriiq schl e1c~ veolr lut rltpr ctudn ~ ~middotnleti nc net E1r A rp1ucti nn in hp lr- jt I bull ~ oJ 11 C t P ~ P c ~ r r- i C e c v n h ~ ~ e n c P f l 01 f I n v I~r -It~ r P-1u(1~~ ucuI1 bull rpn~c t- lp11 fn ~ 1-0shy

- rl r e to rT p ~ r t I c 1 p -i I 1 p q 1 P P f h n f t- 1 c n to bull

~lP ctJp-~l p~tPCt -1V~ T~rt~ n ~C1~l~~-~n(Y

~ Tp~-nc ~rr~ ~Il1 t~T1PCi~ ~f t-l-p l-dp~p ~riu-rImiddot~n~- P~~lt PU ~c in f~ C -1= ~~T1fc

BEST AVAlLA8LE COpy

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 13: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

v~lue tn snciety can also be ~easured in te~s of the reduced cost nf producing a c~~letion ~r ex~ple the World Ban~ has esti~ated th~t ~s a rsult f repetitions and drpouts it tn~ a~pr~x1matelv tl~ student vears of instruct~n ~nd ~ps~1~n~ tn nr~~ucp fne primt middotv ~raduatll elTTp~red with ~ vears atld Rp12no~ if these ine~ficiences could he eli~in~td Based up~n the differntial sAve~ (Rn~~n) and A very rough estimate nf the f~ects oT t~ese ineTfietenshyces on the nUT1ber of extca pers~ns serEd hv the syst~ we suspect that ahut $110 ~il1ion culri ~~tenshytiallv he saved if these rRtes cnuld he reduced A s~ewhat s~al~~r savin~ is achievRhle Rt the sec~nri~rv level

In(Ore sed fanp0wer Avai lai I i tv

Padl~ trrtinin~ at the l~wer sec~~d~rv sc~~l levE1 is expected tn increase the n~her ~f persons wh~ Are se~i-skilled andr technicians It ~ill nr~~hlv have the effect ~f incre~sing the fnc~re~ nf thn~p ~~~ ree ~l ~f advmced training Whether f nc ~ps ~ctuRl1 v ri se li 11 denend uPn ~hetrer detrRnrl grNmiddotS TT~tP TqTIip V

tan surulv and on the acti~ns n~ thp 2~vern~pnt in affectinQ spl~r~ H~ever the inrTPQ~p in thp IHJTlpr of thesf persns cqn e i~p~rt~nt hprnucp t n~d ripe Indonesin with R lahnr rrnl with ~hic~ tn Rttrqet ~ut~f~p invest f Tt ls faci t~tp~ the elfT~~i ~f Tnd~nesi~s intetn~l industries Pec~nt nrn1pctinn~ call f~r an annual r~tE nf ~rlmiddotth ~~ ~ 1 in thp technic~~n cl~ss ~nd f~r A 1i1 tncrEISp in 1fl1prf wOToers At present these level S eire n~t qtt~1 n~ P w~hnut a s12nific~nt u~er~dfng nf erlucqtf~~1 expendttures ~h~ul~ t~e dpsired trainfn~ lp~1g nrt b~ achieed In~~~ Las ~~itirus rieel~~pt 2nq~ ar~ unli~elv t Ie re~ched With Rn uer~rl1n~ ~ it~ hUTr-3n reSlJurces it is 1n ~ hetter ~sitin tn ft1~~tshyitr large n~turrtl resnurce ~qse ~us incrp~sprl ~~nshyp~wer ~vaila~ilftv pmv1des ~ ~e~ns f~r rEIchin2 ~ hi~het gr(lwth nath ~hich hls ~ ~lup tn Tnrlne~icl n~t reecLeod middotin the icre~se in ~tet ~~pe

Tt is cu~t~ma~v in c~st-~~p~it ~q1vqe~ t distinguish euitv ~rl e~~cencv pfec~s nn the e~u~~q that thp l~ttet i~lve ch~n2es in t-h~ ~~~~e~~t-p utTut-~ ~f a sncietv Cnd c~ p discussed h1ectivllv 1ft t-P f~-pt need nrt nv~lf chan2p~ i n ~e~rpe~t-p ut~ut ~~

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 14: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

are inher~ntlv su~jecttve ~he disttncttnn ts an itrj(Irtant ne in th s 1liner hpcAuge 1 thtt frl~rti ~ tf 1nstruct~Intl r~diC ~nd T H Jp h~p trFufI e 4pshy4here thtt tnstructi=otl r~rH 1 su~stut_~ J y tpuCPq the cost of sch~~lin~ As such it ~~~eB instructnn ~Ire ~ecess~~le t( 11w tncC~e f~~i1es ~hi~ q n~t nnlv ~ecause the l~r~elv univers~l elvertgp nF r~t~ Cverel~es n~stacles such ~9 ~~~~r~~hy tp~eher rplurshyt~nce t~ live in rurtl rets ~rirl 11 Tul~tilo densittes hut alsn ~ecause it reduces the a~nuot (rshytiTTe that ltSnns Tust sTlend ~w~v (rTT ~hptr a2ricul-tur~l ~ (ther activitie~ Tn ~rf(Ht-ln thts qTllrn~c~ insures ~ r-nrp UT1i fCTr Clu~litv nf ~fprinp ~n~ TTn1P stand~r11zej set nf cllur~es t~~n exi~tq ~~ nn1 rp~in~1 =r lcRl pr~era~s ~re rrllduce~

~~p i~p1tcRtiln~ ~n the Tndlne~i~n p~virnn~pnt ~rp

~ti~ly hvius G~ven ~ajl tpefln~l rl-1t~~tenCs ~n ~Ith the quaHtmiddotr Cmri qU(Intit f OUrSP ffprirH~S cit-p~ earlfer the pr~p~secl teAcher trmiddot~ntn~ ~n~ juo1~r secClnd~rv rr~gra~s ~JfIu11 c ntr-~l]te trgt II1U11-fzip educ3tt~R] ~~p~tunities Mit~in t~e cuntTv ~hp cnntrihuti~n Mill ~p ~(I~pst tn t~e initiRl st~e~s ~ut is likeh tf g~lJ iT iprt~ncp if the nr~gr~~s succpp-4 ra-rticulflrlv in the pmiddotrer nrrwincp~ t~p u1eIrHng ~ educAr~~Al nnrtunties Fflr hnth tp~chpr~ ~n~ stu~pntq Mill ~e signtic~nt jF cc~~nRniprl ~v ~ ~rer~ ~~~enp~ t insure R t7idesnrerl di str~uti flf TPce IPr~ ~q s~uld ~e useful in increMsing th~ n tent~ ~u~l~ nrnf~st~n~1 and seTi-s1-iJled wc-r1pr-c in tp clpuetng rr ~_ncps bull

~hp pr~1ect icr~~se~ pouit in secn~ s~n~p ~iTlce ~ t im rE~ Inr1 ~ Rn lr ATn M~ Tnnnpcitn t1nfc extpT1ll ~ the ~tr~l tTe-tS ~ni cincp t ~ ~tT~1tp evenly t~~Ughut the Clluntrv it nv~vp~ t ~rti~ redlstr41-utln f spricp~ F t-~p pit 1P nc---p~ ~ th(l~e Mith leCQ ~~p n~TPT rp~i c -pnp~~t in ~hp sens tlIt e(hl~R~ ~ loR1 ttintl2 TTnpTITI ~TP 1-4 rv~i1~e financen ~r~~tr11 l-y extprnR Fun~smiddot t~p _ttrl~T~e~s pnp~~ t i t-p ~en~p tl-tt th~v htTp ~

rtpn- hpon1e t rac~iT t1- hT(s-l(tct-c

wtt S l1 ~ cl p~~ S T7h~thr tt(S tJ ~~ ~1 (Stt- 1~~ ~f tt~ [r ject c~n -IE u1v ~c-u-i Th i th

H ~uc~~an ~~d F ~as Fdueatinn~l Technl~~v in neve] ~Tlin~ r untri es ~ Tho RpsflulcjII ~ 11 clti T~~1Pl TmiddotRsMin~t~n pc AT) ~~)

BEST AVAlUbLE coPt

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 15: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

provisi~n ~f f~11~w-thr~ugh p~~~r~~s (n the cas~ nr nmiddot~n- ftTRl pro~rarrs the issue f s hw t(l ch~nne1 thsp ~ith educnttonnl interests tnt q Tre rrTIq1 trRfnin~ TtIgraT T~i 1 eo therp TTav nt he anY 11 eo f n thf~ cate~~ry reql~~tin ~r the equity hjective ~ulri su~gpst th~t ~h~ ~rnvsin nr rnlM-~hru~h Prluc~t~ r~r thi s 2ruT cHl d e fnlrt~nt T fp~ ~P n t~fI case F te~cher tratn~n~ ~~e ~rvi~i~n ~h~u~ ~p ~~~p nnt nh v to PEt pri~rv tpHmiddothp~~ t rp~ $I t~PU$ltep leve 1 t~ lIs ql1 l thpn to Cnti nup rlt Fu~~-IF-T trafMng qnd pllcepnt if ther qrp Rl1 P TTn1 pqS tJp r~vstn nf ~ddtirn~l educqti(ln ~ Rcc~nqnie~ ~v ~ddfrt~nql ~Trnrtunities t~p rnject will ~n nn1v qrt f the TTav II ETving poui tv ERl ~

7 ~qpacttv Bu 1 cHng ~r~pct~

- A r-jr Fp~tur If this nr1ec~ lmiddot~i1 he-~ ~ui1ri the Rj litv f thpndnnesi rln glVprnTent ten tiPR1 T th educatjn~l issues ~n hth ~ ~lRnninE qnd llepn~qti~n 1 et 1 It is diFficult t(l q~s~n q u~ntitqti1p l1flup tn tiis effect llth11~h i~ surelv ig iTInr~tnt in thp ecnTTiC Cve went (If ~he Cunt~v rhp r 1pc~ bull 11 ~enellegt f flrent TlTr~tn ~i p~ ~r It 1 p~~t C p~~ ~fi nC ~h)st 2~r nr1drl ~r tJe trRining f R rJ)middot~ I~ri 1j1 vrc -his will have 8 s~ntFicqnt ef~ect n nCreq~in~ thp c~pacitv ~F t~e Ind~nesi~n ~rvprnrpnt t~ u~~rq~~ i~~ educ~tngtl sor-E- Tt bull middotil1 ~ls r v~p ~ np ~pte c

exrerts (ril~r rgtitJ ~th thp l-ef~-i~g ~TI~ nTT~II~in~ (If educlti nll technnlrp~ sv~tPrS l-p~p ~~ri r1-~p-t rertres ~f the PTect us~ p suh 1pCtilrplv tlr~11J2tp-l

Tle 7resece ~ the TIr jeCf Tgtil1 Eip ri~p~ terti~rv Ene Fi t s p~tch T 1 ~~ -IIhl v Tl~v ~P Fu~ PT stilTu 10 fhe ec rr P~~IT~ p tehp rCPCC ~ rreTlAring i-l- ne ~e~cher fr~nin~ AtpT~1~ ~ 1iv t~ vive rie t middotmiddott1en Iterill~ F u~e ofn thp Cshyculus ~ t le telt er t~qi~i ng cl11eEP~ T illpT ~p bull tIr qtetgt1 s u~e(j n t-Ip i n~tluc~ur~l rqrH Tlr 9T~-~ it tl- jtmiddotmiddot r sp~~~rv 1Plrp 1 c TT~ -Ip r1~~pri in s p 1rq~ ~c~A t~e TIr czr ic T~1p~p~ ~t~ lie f sep qlt t Fcn ~~~~ cr ~T~PT tlHi nt e-o J tL~ iTTfJPpnf -nt ti ~cp n~~ ~ in~t-uc~nql ~cte~~t~ ~ p~~1Jrp ~ f~~~~ ~P~~~q

BeST AVAIlABLE COPt

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy

Page 16: EDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT ...pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDAAF897C1.pdfEDUCATION COMMUNICA TIONS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY Dr. Howard Tuckman Florida Stat," (Jlliv~r.:iit)

~ poss11)le since tlereo is n~ pt1rr experiencp fr1 ~htch quantitattve dat~ an ~~ill~vcrs C3n he ~Atereri l~nethpless ttd]l~ver~ f t~is tvpe esn hp c~sir1PTa1eo

It h~s n~t ~ee Dssi~le to C~Duteo a ~enefitc~st ratL f~r this pr~ject at this ~t~~e It see~s likeolv h(wever thlt once the pr~g=tTS qre in-l ~ce ~d ~pr~shyting several C~Tn~nents will ~e ~re q~en~~le tn ~c~n~ric an~lvsis Fnr this reas~ it wulri he useo Ful ~t the utset tn intr~duce ~n aceountin~ sche~e ~l~n~ te 1 lnes nr(lT(Ised h the p~YFCC0 c 1st c(ln FE-rence ~ rr ilitjte C(lst In~lvsic It fulri als n e useFul tn enc~ur~ge T1l-1 t~ TT11n f-in i~t~iled cst figure~ ~ hist~ricAl ~Asi~

Mhile Al tctu~J r~ti has n-t l)een crnute-i it is Prelv th~t tfle ptject s cst-pfFectJe Issurdne n c-1~-off 1int 0f 1 ~e instituti~n ~ut1ritn~ EFFectq ~he s1il1ov~~ effects rr~ deovelrping the ~ItEril1~ ~n-j ~he eQui~v erFect~ cOlT1cn tfts efnrt f~r AF) funHnr

SESI AV AlLABLE COpy