Education and Employment: The Data Trail

Introduction

Throughout the last three decades of the twentieth century the employment

situation in Australia has altered significantly compared with the labour

force that existed in the decades preceding the Second World War. One group

of Australians to be affected by this change more than any other were its

youth, that is, those in the 15 to 24 year old age bracket. During the 1970s

and 1980s unemployment rates for this age group began to rise and young

people found it increasingly more difficult to obtain full time work. The

downturn impacted positively on the education and training sectors.

The aim of this study was to present a holistic picture of the situation for

15 to 24 year olds with regard to their participation in education, training

and employment through an investigation of existing databases, that is,

those collected by authoritative bodies in Australia and made available to

the general public. Existing data were bought together and synthesised to

describe the participation rates in education, training and employment for

one calendar year, 1998.

As the education and employment situation has altered significantly for 15

to 24 year olds since the 1970s, a number of government reports as well as

areas of research have been documenting this change. In many cases, national

databases have been utilized to depict this changing relationship. This

study contends that while a plethora of data exist, efforts to synthesis

these data and present a coherent picture are limited.

Literature

The literature review for this study encompassed two areas. The first area

examines the change in economic and social conditions that have affected

young people's opportunities to gain entry in to the full time labour

market, illustrating the extent circumstances have altered for those in this

age bracket. The second section provides an overview of government reports

and government funded research that has used national data to examine the

situation of young people in education and employment since the 1970s.

Section 1

Changes to Australia's Economic and Social Situation

Alterations to the composition of Australia's labour force over the past

several decades characterise the evolving nature of modern Australian

society. The impact of economic, technological and social transformations

that began in the early 1970s would manifest itself within business and

government divisions, affecting the buoyant full time labour market that was

thriving during the 1950s and 60s. During the last three decades of the

twentieth century unemployment rates in Australia reached record levels at

various times reaching as high as 11% (Lewis, Drake, Garnett, Jutter, Norris

and Treadgold 1998).

Full time employment is a casualty of the changing phenomenon of modern

societies, which is emanating around the world (Giddens 1999). Throughout

the second half of the twentieth century there has been rapid economic and

social change in Australia, brought about by a culmination of factors such

as increased immigration, the development of technological systems aiding

the rise of globalisation of the world economics and markets, increased

unemployment and the continual expansion of industrialisation and

capitalisation. The Australian society that existed at the end of World War

II constitutes a civilisation that bears little resemblance, in many

respects, to the current Australian nation (Jamrozik, Boland and Urquhart

1995).

The sound economic performance of Australia's economy during the post war

decades can also be measured by the performance of its Gross Domestic

Product (GDP). Like most industrialised nations at the time, Australia was

performing well in relation to the value and output of its product (Lougheed

1988). Increased immigration was another significant characteristic at this

time assisting the social and economic growth of the country by supplying

labour in booming sectors such as mining and manufacturing (de Lepervanche

1984). The luxury of full time employment for Australia's workforce was to

be short lived. By the end of the 1960s the full time employment situation

was under threat. A series of events altered the employment security

Australians had enjoyed for almost twenty years (Marginson 1997).

This golden era of economic prosperity was riding on the back of an economic

model that had been developed by British economist John Keynes. Keynes

(1936) had devised a model of economics that provided a response to the

economic downturn experienced during the 1930s and throughout the Second

World War. In general Keynes' theory supported stimulating the economy by

increasing government spending, which in turn would lead to a fall in

unemployment rates. His theory was based on governments playing a strong

role in the function and stimulation of the economy (Bryan and Rafferty

1999). The economic theory espoused by Keynes (1936) was a departure from

the economic model of the neo-classical economists. The main difference

between the two theories was that the neoclassical economists, such as

Friedman (1953) adhered to the economic concept that supports the market

place as the driving force for the demand of produce, with minimal

government influence (Battin 1997).

The 1970s marked a period in social and economic change in Australia's

history. In 1973 a major international event jolted the world economy, the

price of oil increased at an exorbitant rate, causing a recession in

Australia not seen since the depression of the 1930s. The impact of rising

oil prices led to a significant change in the relationship between

unemployment and inflation, a situation that would continue throughout the

1970s and into the 1980s (Bennetts 1998). Marginson (1997) adds that the

effects of increased oil prices caused a blow-out in the Australian economy

along with government expenditure, which not only has a significant impact

on the employment rates but also affected other areas in the economy. It was

perceived by the government of the time, that is the Whitlam Labour

Government that the Keynesian theory had failed to provide the structure

needed to overcome the new economic crisis. This period marked the start of

the rebirth in economic thinking, the new direction being neo-classicism.

While the effects of the neo-classical economics would not develop in

Australia until the 1980s, its beginnings can be traced back to the time of

the mid 1970s.

New Right economists such as Friedman (1980) and Hayek (1948) espoused the

neo-classical economic theory which was based on less government control of

economic activities. Governments, in Friedman's economic model should be

there to guide and to set laws and policy, not as the catalyst of economic

direction as Keynes had advocated. Social policy formation based on equity

and fairness that had been a corner stone of the early Whitlam years, was

superseded during the time of the Hawke/Keating governments. The new Right

ideology began to seep into policy development in the 1980s. Many government

controlled utilities and organisations became victims of the economic

rationalists who adhered to the view that privatised publicly owned

properties would produce better economic outcomes, than if they stayed as

publicly run institutes (Marginson 1997).

Wearing and Berreen (1994) have argued that while governments have been

driving the philosophies underlying the neo-classical model of economic

thinking, the social costs of the economic rationalists ideology have

actually created additional government costs due to issues such as rising

unemployment. This has occurred because many groups within society have not

fared well under the economic rationalist model and the gap has been

gradually widening between those who have gained economic fortunes and those

who have missed out.

The Impact on Young People

The fall out from changes to Australia's economic and social situation has

been shouldered by its youth, as their opportunity to enter full time work

at the completion of compulsory schooling became an elusive option. The

decline in full time work for young people is due to a combination of

social, technological and economic events that have taken place during the

last quarter of the twentieth century. Policy development relating to young

people from the 1970s to the 1990s mirrors the direction of economic and

social change in Australia. Youth unemployment began to rise as the youth

labour market became devoid of jobs.

As a result of changes to Australian labour markets, most 15 to 24 year olds

have found themselves in a long-term relationship with education and

training systems at the post-compulsory school level, (Ainley and Fleming

1997), delaying the difficulties encountered in obtaining work in the full

time labour market (Wooden 1998). The Australian Bureau of Statistics (1997)

has noted that an increase from 44% to 51% of young people attending

educational institutions between 1988 and 1996. Teese (2001: 24), has

acknowledged that young people in the teenage years have borne the brunt of

a declining job market, decreasing 'by about half (in the case of boys) and

by two-thirds (in the case of girls)'. With a loss of opportunities for 15

to 19 year olds to enter the full time labour market, most teenagers have

turned to the education sectors, especially the school systems, in order to

undertake post-compulsory school qualifications. Many students, especially

those in the senior years of school are mixing their studies with some type

of part time employment.

As the employment situation in Australia has significantly altered over the

second half of the twentieth century the type of workforce that was required

no longer exists and the make up of those in employment has gradually

changed as Australia enters the new millennium. During the transformation,

the struggle for employment has meant that Australia's youth have had to

come to grips with a redistribution of employment options (Healy 1998).

While there seems to be general agreement in the literature that

unemployment rates for young people have risen significantly since the

1970s, Norris (1996) Whitfield and Ross (1996), and that these rates have

remained high, the reporting is inconsistent. For example Craig (2000) has

reported unemployment rates of '30 % or more' for 15 to 19 year olds while

Lewis and Mclean (1999) have suggested that in the context of teenage

participation in the labour force '18.8 per cent' were unemployment. On the

other hand, Miller (1998) claims that unemployment rates for teenagers is

approximately '19.3 per cent' and Wooden (1996) reports that youth

unemployment for teenagers stood at '20 per cent'.

Government Policy and Young People

As employability of young people became an emergent issue for governments

during the 1980s and 1990s policy development relating to young people

focused on aligning the employment of young people with educational

outcomes, linking the fortunes of employment to the education and training

agenda. However, it appears that not all young people were keen to take

advantage of the education and training schedule that was encouraged by the

government. This mean that as employment remained an issue for young people

in the 1990s, those youth identified as 'at risk' of unemployment or other

social ills, became the focus of policy development (Irving et al 1995).

There are those who have been critical of the development of youth policy in

Australia. Two documents released in the late 1990s by the Dusseldorp Skills

Forum (1998, 1999) examine the situation of young people in education,

training and employment at the post compulsory school stage, acknowledging

that the situation for many young people is not being addressed through

government policy. The documents not only imply that government policy

relating to young people is not aiding their transition into full time work

but contend that the situation in general has worsened.

Section 2

Government Reports

There has been a plethora of government reports, both state and federal

produced since the 1970s examining aspects relating to the education,

training and employment situation of young people. Approximately thirty-four

reports have examined circumstances surrounding the education, training and

employment of young people using data acquired from national databases. The

Commonwealth government has undertaken thirty of these reports and the state

government four, with the majority of these occurring during the 1990s,

particularly from 1991 to 1995. An increase in reports by the federal

government during this time may indicate a response to the education,

training and employment situation of young people or a concern regarding the

consistently reported high levels of youth unemployment.

Details regarding the methodology for the gathering of information have not

been well documented in the government reports reviewed for this study.

Twenty-five reports did not provide a clear indication of the methodology

that would be applied to gather the information or an explanation of how the

data collected were to be analysed. Of those reports that gave some mention

of research methodology few contained a specific chapter relating to data

gathering or data analysis. Most tended to provide an overview of the data

gathering as part of a broader title within a section of the report. An

example of this can be seen in the report by Stevenson, Maclachlan and

Karmel (1999) Regional Participation in Higher Education and the

Distribution of Higher Education Resources across Regions.

The national data presented in the government reports were acquired from a

range of official statistical sources. Forty-eight different data sources

were found to be used. The most frequented source was the Australian Bureau

of Statistics followed by the Commonwealth Department of Education, Training

and Youth Affairs (now the Commonwealth Department Education Science and

Training).

Research Methodology

The methodology used for this research is descriptive, which can be

explained as 'describing systematically the facts and characteristics of

given population or area of interest, factually and accurately (Isaac &

Michael 1997)'. This study is defined as descriptive research because it

presents a snapshot of the participation rates of young people in Australia

in education, training and employment, in doing so, presenting a holistic

picture of the patterns of engagement in these sectors of 15 to 24 year

olds, through the merging of data provided from national databanks.

Secondary data dominate this study. These types of data can best be

described as data that have been obtained from the research of others (Maher

and Burke 1991). Various organisations and personnel such as government

agencies, private individuals or industry groups gather data. The data

collected by these bodies may be used for a specific study or report and the

process of gathering these data makes them primary data. Primary data are

collected directly from the source/s using some form of data gathering tool

such as survey or interview. Once the data have been collated and used by

those who originally collected them, they may be archived in some way for

public access. It is at this point that they become secondary data.

The data collected for this study were obtained from a number of government

organisations including the Australian Bureau of Statistics, National Centre

for Vocational Education Research, the Ministerial Council for Education,

Employment Training and Youth Affairs and the Commonwealth Department of

Education, Training and Youth Affairs (now the Commonwealth Department

Education Science and Training).

The method of accessing data from the various organisations was a mixed

process. This was due to the numerous and diverse ways information is

published and dispersed into the public domain. Data sets can be found in

various publications including catalogues, government reports, Internet

publications and Internet data files. The data for this study were acquired

through several avenues. These included print material in the form of books

and catalogues held in libraries. Some material was purchased from specific

organisations and other catalogues and material were down-loaded from the

organisation's Internet web sites.

Once the data were obtained they were then analysed. The secondary data

collected for this study were collated around two age groups: those 15 to 19

years olds and those 20 to 24 year olds. As the data were in a variety of

formats, in order to begin the collating process most of the data acquired

were either tallied or reformatted. For example, the data relating to

education and full time/part time employment were tallied from a

twelve-month set of figures to a single figure, representing the average for

the year 1998.

To begin presenting a holistic picture of the education, training and

employment situation of young people at the post-compulsory school level,

the data were compiled into data trees, first using the raw data and then

the raw figures were converted into percentages. In order to facilitate

presentation of the information contained in the data trees in a more

familiar and readable style, data trees containing percentages were

reproduced in the form graphs.

Interpreting Data from Large Databases

Interpreting and using information from large databases has provoked debate

in the literature. The characteristics of a country collected by government

departments and collated into large data sets is generally referred to in

the literature as 'official statistics' and provides data on a range of

areas such as health, crime, finance, education, employment and trade (May

1997).

The debate in the literature regarding the use of official statistics

involves those who see the benefits of collecting data that represent a

national profile, through to those who see attempts to collate national

profiles in the form of large data banks as providing a misconstruction of

the reality of society. Hindess (1973) for example, is critical of the use

of official statistics in social research as such data fail to portray an

accurate sense of 'real-life', because official statistics are not a

successful method to provide a standardised framework in which to position

data. On the other hand, Miles and Evans (1979) argue that official data do

not represent a true perspective of society because the weight of data

collected tends to reinforce the beliefs of the dominant culture, thereby

rendering them useless for any form of critical debate.

In relation to this study, it appears that there is concern regarding the

use of official statistics in the reporting of TAFE participation rates.

There are inconsistencies in the reported participation rates between data

sets due to the different methodology employed by government institutes when

collecting national data. This has been acknowledged in a report by the

National Board of Employment, Education and Training (1992), Post-compulsory

Education and Training: Fitting the Need. The report explains that the

methodology applied by the Australian Bureau of Statistic and the

Commonwealth Department of Education, Training and Employment (now the

Commonwealth Department Education Science and Training) differs and are

therefore not comparable. The definition of a TAFE enrolment, along with the

time enrolments at TAFE are collected, seem to be the cause of the

conflicting participation rates in the TAFE sector. Such discrepancies

relating to participation rates in education only appear to occur in

relation to the TAFE sector. DEETYA (now DEST) and the ABS do not seem to

have the same degree of difficulty in the reporting of school enrolments or

higher education participation rates.

Findings from the Study

The interpretation of findings will be reported in two parts. Part A

constitutes a report on the analysis of the data collected for this study

portraying participation rates of 15 to 24 year olds in education and

employment in 1998. Part B involves a discussion of the emergent complexity

of using data acquired from national organisations.

Part A

1. Education

As indicated in the literature, for example Misko (1999), Ainley and Fleming

(1996), a higher percentage of young people are completing post-compulsory

high school qualifications during the final decades of the twentieth

century. This represents a significant change in secondary education

participation rates that has occurred for teenagers. The findings from this

research support the school participation trends reported in the literature.

The analysis of the data from this study shows that there is a significant

number of young people participating in the tertiary sector thus supporting

findings in the literature (Marginson 1999) regarding the increase in

participation rates of young Australians especially in higher education.

This study also found that tertiary education participation for males and

females is approximately the same. The difference in participation within

the tertiary sectors is that more males are attending TAFE institutes and

more females are attending higher education, demonstrating that some males

and females take separate routes to acquire qualifications for entry into

the workforce. This maybe due to the loss of jobs in the manufacturing

sector, which employed a substantial number of female teenage school

leavers. As the majority of apprenticeships are held by males (Dockery and

Norris 1996), this may account for the high percentage of males in the TAFE

sector.

This study also acknowledges the irregularities in the data regarding TAFE

participation. Data gathered for this study and figures reported by

Everingham (1999) illustrate the significant differences between DETYA (now

DEST) and ABS data supporting the argument that the methodology used to

collect the data effects the outcomes reported. However, differences in the

TAFE data may also support the position that official statistics are a

reflection of the priorities of persons within the government (May 1997).

Given the profile and funding of vocational education and training by

governments in recent years, the differences in the data may also reflect

the agenda of DETYA (now DEST) in continuing to pursue funding in the vocati

onal education area as a way of justifying the effectiveness of the sector

in training young people and the financial expenditure it requires in order

to do this.

2. Labour Force Participation

This study acknowledges that there are significant issues surrounding the

employment opportunities for young people as they attempt to enter the full

time workforce. The job market for this age group has significantly altered

from the one that existed during the decades that preceded World War II. The

demand for young people in the workforce, especially teenagers, has swung

from a need for full time workers to a rise in the demand for part time

workers, a current characteristic of the employment situation for young

people. However, this study revels that there are some concerning aspects in

the reporting of employment data relating to those in the 15 to 24 year old

age group.

The data from this study examining employment indicates that the majority of

teenagers who have employment are in some form of part time work, thus

supporting other areas of research documented in the literature (Robinson

1996). While males and females in the 15 to 19 year old age group

participate in employment at approximately the same rate, it is evident that

there are more males in full time work than females and more females in part

time work than males. This same trend is reflected for those in the 20 to 24

year old age group, although there are more of this age group in full time

work.

Some of the figures quoted in the literature regarding unemployment rates,

differ significantly from the rates found by this study. The total

unemployment documented by this research for 15 to 19 year olds was 11.4%

and for 20 to 24 year olds the rate was 9.6%. However rates as high as 30%

(Craig 2000) for 15 to 19 year olds and other variable rates were reported

in the literature. Such discrepancies can misrepresent the situation a

difference of approximately 20% represents approximately 270 000 15 to 19

year olds, which is a large number of individuals affected by decisions made

on these statistics.

The literature has recognised (Robinson, 1996) that the loss of employment

opportunities for young people was in the manufacturing sector, however, it

is still the largest employer of young males. As acknowledged earlier,

perhaps the greatest number of jobs to disappear from the manufacturing

sector affected females and, therefore, young women have had greater

participation in certain sectors of education because new employment

pathways for females may require higher levels of educational

qualifications.

It has also been acknowledged by those such as Hancock and Safari (2001)

that the largest employment expansion in the industry sector has been in

property and business, along with accommodation, cafes and restaurants, but

for young people these sectors are not the largest employers. This study

supports recent findings documented in the literature, as identified in the

Kirby report (2000), which acknowledges that young people continue to face

significant issues in the labour market, especially in acquiring full time

employment.

Section B

During the development of this study it became clear that dealing with

existing data and indeed interpreting statistical information presented by

various government departments, provided another dimension to this research;

one that was not foreseen at the beginning of the study. While there is a

considerable amount of official data produced by government departments, and

made available to the public, data are not always presented in a format that

makes reading and interpretation a straight-forward activity. Transforming

data for this study from large data banks required much analysis and

computer formatting, in order to present the numerical information into a

readable and usable format.

It was found that variables in large databases tend to only be consistently

represented within the same databases and in some cases within systems. Some

databases report their findings using other variables that are not commonly

used by all systems, thus causing anomalies between the data. For example,

some databases reported the data using age, while others reported the data

using school year groups.

While a range of data exists regarding the education and participation rates

of young people, within the education sectors school enrolments are

collected more times than those in other areas. Labour force participation

appears to be collected primarily by one organisation. Labour force data are

also collated against education participation, however the type of

institution attended is not presented.

The method of organising databases to collect data on young people reflects

the analysis regarding young people's destinations. Education and employment

are the main categories from which sub-categories are drawn and from that,

fields of investigation have been measured. However, there are areas missing

within the organisation of the data regarding participation rates of young

people. This has ramifications for those trying to gain a clear picture of

participation rates of young people when aspects of the data have been

omitted.

Conclusion

This study sought to depict the participation rates of 15 to 24 year olds in

education, training and employment at the post-compulsory school level, by

using national data published for the calendar year 1998, and made available

for public access by government authorities in Australia. The findings show

that a significant number of young people are in some form of education or

training at the post-compulsory school level and that the road to gaining

full time employment remains a long-term journey for many young people in

this age group, supporting other research conducted in this area.

However, there are some areas found in this research that do not compare

with similar types of research, such as TAFE participation rates and the

reported levels of youth unemployment. It has also been noted that the use

of data published by government organisations has provided statistical

information for research and for government reports examining the education

and employment situation of young people.

This research has found that there are issues that need to be addressed

regarding the collection, reporting and recording of national data.

Incongruencies exist in the reporting of national data pertaining to 15 to

24 year olds and their participation rates in education and employment.

National data, supplied by government authorities, have been used in this

study and as incongruencies have been located in this age group, then

similar inconsistencies may well exist in other areas.

This study has shown that the reporting of secondary data has the potential

to portray national participation rates within a society, however the

presentation of statistical information needs to be reported by government

authorities using a consistent range of variables. It has also been

illustrated that those writers quoting data obtained from national

authorities need to make it clear to the readers the validity of the data,

otherwise readers may be left with an impression that is not representative

of the situation.

In conclusion, this research has found that government authorities that

collect national data fail to present data that relate to the same area,

using constant and regular variables. Therefore, if this study has found

incongruencies have been located in the data relating to 15 to 24 year olds

then similar inconsistencies may well exist in other areas across national

databases regarding other age groups in Australia. This type of

investigation may well be considered for further research.

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affected 15-19 year olds during the 1990s. Sydney: Allen and Unwin.

----- Original Message -----

From: AARE Office <aare@aare.edu.au>

To: sally knipe <sshowlongbtmr@ozemail.com.au>

Sent: Thursday, May 09, 2002 6:54 AM

Subject: KNI02171 Refereed Paper Proposal Accepted

> Dear Ms Knipe

> Your proposal to submit the paper KNI02171 "Young people in education

> and employment: The data trail" for full paper refereeing has been

> accepted. Please forward your paper and your refereeing fee as soon as

> possible prior to 25 May.

> Wendy Shilton

> AARE Office

>

>