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Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

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Page 1: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers
Page 2: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Editor's Welcome

Welcome to Issue 18 of On Course profits.

This month in our feature article we take a close look at the trainers that make a profit in

May and June and we uncover three systems that will find you some value winners this

spring.

For Gold members we drill down a little deeper and manage to exclude the bad value

and increase the return on investment.

On the subject of On Course Profits Gold.

Gold members have had profitable big race tips from Nick Hardman for both

Cheltenham and Aintree and hopefully we will organise the same for the big flat

festivals this summer.

We have also had a look at a much ignored but profitable aspect of racing and that is

summer National Hunt racing.

The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground

firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers that make it

their business to record some wins for these horses.

Our research has uncovered some systems that we expect to make profits from this

angle in the off season.

We also have an interview with Scott Beckman of Tipsters Review and a profile of the

guys behind Biscayne Bets a look at the timing behind the uncovering of arbitrage bets

and the usual product reviews and tipster tables.

I hope you enjoy this month’s issue.

Happy Punting

Darren Power

Page 3: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Taking A Look at Some Profitable

Trainer Strategies – The Spring /

Summer Transition

Of the medium to larger sized racehorse training establishments nearly all will follow a

particular patter, or a modus operandi, year in and year out.

Notwithstanding the odd problem such as adverse weather conditions making training

difficult or a virus in the yard many of the trainers are somewhat predictable in their

future plans for the horses in their yards. But can we use this to our advantage?

Bearing this in mind we are going to look to consider, and more importantly hopefully

uncover, a select group of trainers which have a historic track record of performing well

during this time of the year, in particular from the beginning of May through to the end

of June. Our research will be based on the most recent three season campaigns, 2013-

2015, in an attempt to ensure that our findings are relevant to the current traits and

habits of the trainers we will be looking at.

David Elsworth

First up is David Elsworth and readers of a certain age will undoubtedly be aware that

he is famed for training the wonderful Desert Orchid, the statue of which stands proudly

at Kempton race course.

Page 4: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Desert Orchid or Dessie as he was affectionately known achieved an amazing record as

a Novice Hurdler through to a top class chaser between 1984 and 1990.

Dessie was an aggressive front running horse and it was this style which endeared him

to the racing public. Over his illustrious career he won 34 races in total, including seven

at the Kempton track, where four of those victories were in the King George VI Steeple

Chase which only went to underline his immense talent.

The table below shows the basic record of all of the runners saddled during the months

of May and June from the David Elsworth yard during the 2013 to 2015 period.

Although he is very clearly not what you would call prolific in terms of the numbers of

runners / winners, he is however highly consistent and based on the calculated A/E ratio

figures in the final column he is also clearly performing far better than the market

expectations, and on this basis he is well worth investigating further, if not following

blindly.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the principle of A/E ratio briefly it can be

explained like this:-

Page 5: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

If we take the odds at the Starting Prices for each runner we can calculate what should

have been their likely chance of winning and therefore how many winners we would

have expected.

We then compare this to the actual results achieved and of we have more winners than

we had expected you will achieve a ratio figure of greater than 1 and this then gives us a

good indication of where there has been “value”. For example a 10/1 shot would be

expected to win once in every 10 runs, but if it wins twice then the horse is over

performing and the A/E ratio would be 2.00. Actual number of wins 2 divided by the

expected number of wins 1 equals 2.00.

Obviously the more data that you use to run your figures the more accurate that A/E

figure will be, the larger the sample size the more reliable the results.

Alan Swinbank

Moving on, the next trainer who has pricked our interest is Alan Swinbank. Based near

the quiet village of Melonsby in North Yorkshire Swinbank has been involved with

horses all of his life.

Having had horses in training with the late Arthur Stephenson and also training point to

point runners he eventually took out a full licence at Thorndale Farm in 2001. He has

had numerous successes and now over 700 winners later he has built a new training

complex at Western House.

Collier Hill is probably the most successful horse to date for Swinbank as the horse

holds the record for the most prize money won by a gelding, over £2 million.

Having purchased the unraced 3 year old Swinbank and the horse travelled from meagre

beginnings, from winning a National Hunt Flat race at Catterick, to taking on some of

the world’s richest races. In total Collier Hill won 15 races, 6 of which were Group

races and included 3 Group 1’s, the Canadian Pacific International, the Hong Kong

Vase and the Irish St Leger. In addition he was placed on 16 occasions including in a

further 4 Group 1 races and a Group 3 race.

Collier Hill is now living out his retirement at the Western House Stables and spends his

days in the paddocks hopefully passing on his vast racing knowledge to all of his stable

companions.

Anyway back to business; let’s take a look at the yard’s overall performance during the

months of May and June for the past 3 years.

Page 6: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

First off the performance doesn’t necessarily offer a promising start…but if we consider

splitting out the race types between Handicap and Non Handicaps we see a clear picture

emerge which offers more promise.

The Strike rate of the handicap runners is a healthy 81% better than those runners in non

handicaps. You can see from the 0.80 A/E ratio figure that the non-handicappers clearly

underperform compared to the expectations of the market. In addition the Non-

Handicap groups Betfair SP (£1 BF) level stakes profit has been inflated by the win of

Royal Temptress in 2014 as the 25/1 shot paid 51.87 on the Betfair Starting Price.

There is another factor which is encouraging in respect of Alan Swinbank’s Handicap

runners during the months we are interested in and that refers to the win Strike Rate.

During the last three years there has been a marked up turn with the win strike rates.

2013 – 9.52%

2014 – 17.31%

2015 – 20.31%

The 2015 campaign had 13 winners from the 64 runners and the A/E was 1.34, so the

horses were performing 34% better than expected. With this in mind it could be very

well worth following Alan Swinbank’s handicap runners during the months of May and

June.

Mrs Ruth Carr

Our third and final trainer under the microscope is another Northern based trainer in the

shape of Ruth Carr. Her yard is ten miles north of York and is therefore ideally based

within an hour’s drive of 10 racecourses including York, Thirsk, Beverly and Pontefract

and just a couple of hours drive to a further 7 courses.

Page 7: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

She took out her training licence as recently as 2008 having previously assisted her

grandfather for fifteen years until he decided to take retirement and she has already

trained more than 250 winners and another 500 horses placed.

She has a particular skill it would appear of finding improvement in horses which

switch to her yard having been previously trained elsewhere. Whilst the runners may

not have many big race wins under their belt her training style certainly seems adept at

placing her runners to win on a regular basis.

First of all let’s take a look at all of her runners during the months of interest over the

last three years.

The figures for 2013 certainly suggest that there was some sort of issue at the yard with

the runners performing significantly under par when compared with the subsequent two

years.

However the 2014-2015 periods do seem to offer some encouragement as to the

possibility of finding profit in her runners.

A close inspection of the research data shows that the runners in the 2 year old and 3

year old brackets produced just 1 winner out of 36 runners and a level stake loss of -

31.50 points. If we remove these runners from the equation and concentrate solely on

those runners aged 4 years and older we are immediately in profitable territory as can be

seen below.

In fact, of we remove all the non handicap runners in this age bracket we improve the

profit and loss figures to result in a level stakes profit based on Betfair Starting Prices of

+76.56 points which equates to a commendable + 23.78% return on investment.

So, in summary, during the months of May and June, look to the following:

Back all David Elsworth runners

Back all Alan Swinbank Handicap runners

Back all Mrs Ruth Car Handicap runners aged 4 years or older

Page 8: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

We would suggest staking 1 point to WIN ONLY using the Betfair Starting Prices.

For On Course Profit Gold members we have drilled down into these stats to see more

precisely where the profit is, the resulting extra systems should boost the ROI from

these trainer systems.

You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here…

http://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

Page 10: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

A Q & A with Scott Beckman of Tipsters

Review

1. Hi Scott, first up could we ask you to tell us a little about yourself and your

background?

Hi, I am from a small town in Cumbria where there isn’t really a great deal to do! As a

child I spent the vast majority of my time playing football or wasting my pocket money

on the fruit machines at the bowling alley.

Up until last year I spent 10 years working for a local company as a Mechanical

Engineer but ever since I was young I always had aspirations to work for myself. After

work, I would look at the football and racing that was on that evening and have a few

bets, I was certainly what you would call a "mug" punter.

After a while I got fed up losing and admitted defeat with my own bets and wanted

something that would give me more of a steady income. I stopped betting on football

and started focusing solely on following horse racing tipsters. After a few bad

experiences I began to build up a portfolio of services that I could rely on to bring in a

second income for a good few years.

Page 11: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Now I work for myself running the Tipsters Review website and do some contracting

work for small engineering companies.

2. Why a review site? What made you decide that this was the business for you and

how do you go about ensuring that your reviews are transparent and impartial?

The idea for this particular type of review site came from my own sufferance of

following a Tipster service that failed to live up to expectation. Me and a couple of

friends decided to sign up to a tipster service after reading about how much money he

was making his members and we wanted a piece of the action! Sadly, after a few

months it became clear that all the claims of big priced winners and mega profits had

been false.

This was not just a rough patch for the tipster, he was basically just a con man lying

about results, bragging about winners and covering up his many losers.

Over £1000 out of pocket I wanted to vent my anger and warn off anyone else thinking

about singing up to this "tipster". I was surprised to find that apart from a couple of

forums there wasn’t really anywhere to be able to do this. A couple of months later I

saw a post on social media about someone else who had also lost a large sum of money

following the same service - so I set about creating Tipsters Review.

Making sure that the reviews posted on the site are transparent, unbiased and impartial

is the most important factor in the functionality of the website. My web design team

built a vigorous spam filter system that assesses numerous factors before allowing a

review to be accepted on to the site. (Unique IP addresses, unique emails, timing,

targeting, language, content etc.)

3. Would you tell us a little about the Tipsters Review site? What can it offer

potential punters and how does it differ from other services on the market?

The Key difference Tipsters Review has to any other review site is the origin of the

reviews. All our reviews come from real punters with real experiences; there are over

2500 reviews on the website from fellow gamblers that we can all relate to.

There are lots of other great review sites out there offering professional opinions but I

think the views of punters who have been there and done it are invaluable. It is much

like buying a product from Amazon or booking a holiday using Trip Advisor - we all

want to know what people with previous experience think of it.

Aside from the reviews another feature that is becoming increasingly popular are the

“live 7-day tipster trials” that I started running back in August. Every week we conduct

a live 7 day trial on one of the services featured on the website.

Page 12: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

In doing this it allows all our members to sample life as a full member to a wide variety

of services without paying.

4. What traits do you think a good tipster of any sport should possess?

Honesty honesty honesty. Without it nothing else they can offer has any real value!

5. What do you think the average punter is looking for in a tipping service?

Again, even before looking at the profits you need to know how honest and transparent

any particular service is. Do they keep full records of tips? Do they proof their

selections to other website's? You then need to know if the service is right for you, just

because it makes X amount of profit doesn’t mean that it will be a good fit for yourself.

How many tips per day do they send out? What time do they send them out? What

staking plan do they use? What size betting bank do they recommend? Don’t be afraid

to email the service and ask them questions.

On top of giving you all the information you need, this will also give you an idea of the

quality of customer service they offer. There are also other important factors to consider

before signing up such as; Do they offer a trial period? Do they have a money back

guarantee? What bookmakers do they advise you to bet with? Oh, and of course don’t

forget to check them out on Tipsters Review to see what fellow punters think!

6. Do you like a gamble yourself and if so what approach do you take to your

gambling? Are there any services which you would personally recommend?

Due to time restraints I only have the odd "fun" bets these days. I believe that if you’re

serious about making money from gambling, you need to commit some good time in

doing so!

However, when I was betting more or less full time my approach was always to aim for

long term steady profits. After I got over my “mug” punting days I was never one for

chasing the “get rich quick” type of bets which may sound a bit boring but ultimately,

this minimised risk and provided more of a consistent extra income.

As for recommending a service, I think I will let Tipsters Review do the talking on that

one!

7. What about the bookmakers? Within the gambling industry would you like to

see anything changed? There are many criticisms of the bookmakers and there

treatment of their customers? Is this something you have an opinion on?

Well they certainly don’t make it easy for anyone wanting to win money do they!

Page 13: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

My belief is that it should be enforced upon them to accept a minimum stake from all

customers no matter how much they have won or lost.

I have signed numerous petitions in the past supporting this case, fingers crossed in the

near future something can be put in place.

8. Do you have any personal success or highlights in your sporting experiences to

date which bring a smile and if so what?

The highlight for me has to be launching the Tipsters Review website and seeing the

first review come through. It was a great feeling seeing all the ideas and hard work

paying off.

In terms of betting highlights, I will never forget the first bet I placed at my local betting

shop, £2 on Milan Baros to be top goal scorer in the euros at 50/1 and it came in.

Unfortunately this was not a sign of things to come and I have since failed to eclipse a

50/1 winner all these years later!

9. Do you have any plans to develop the Tipsters Review service further which you

can tell us about?

I am always looking to improve the service Tipsters Review offers and it has come a

long way since its launch. I do have some very exciting plans for the future but I will be

keeping them to myself for the time being :) .

10. What others interests do you have outside of managing the Tipsters Review

site?

Things are very busy in the Tipsters Review house at the moment, we have our second

child on the way, due in the summer and we also have a wedding to plan, so there isn’t

really anytime for much else other than Sleep!

You can check out the reviews on top tipsters at http://www.betting-school.com/ocptr

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

Page 15: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

What really happened to Shergar?

Thirty-three years ago possibly one of the most famous race horses ever, Shergar, was

kidnapped and held for ransom.

He was a stunning large bay colt with a stand out white blaze on his face and four white

“socks”. People knew that face, it was unmistakeable to anyone who held an interest in

the racing world. He had a distinctive running style of racing with his tongue hanging

out and was a gentle and calm horse loved by many.

In his two year old season he had just two races, the first where he set a blistering pace

in his first run at Newbury setting a new course record and the second in what is now

called The Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster where he finished second.

Irish bred and British trained he won the 1981 Derby by a record 10 lengths, which to

date is the longest winning margin. He continued to impress all by then going on to win

the Irish Derby and the King George and became one of the most valuable racehorses in

the world at that time and went on to be named European Horse of the Year.

Page 16: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

The plan was to finish Shergar’s racing career with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe but

his retirement came earlier than expected when he finished an unexplained 4th in the St

Leger at Doncaster. This was his only failure as a three year old when he failed to stay

the extended 14f.

His jockey, Walter Swinburn, was sending out signs with just 2f to go that things were

not right and Shergar finished behind Cut Above a horse he had beaten earlier in the

season in the Irish Derby. The belief of many was that ultimately Shergar would go to

the US for syndication after his racing career ended as the monies on offer over there

were reportedly in the realm of $40 million; however his owner had other ideas.

Shergar’s owner was the Aga Khan IV whose late grandfather; Aga Khan III, was

introduced to English horse racing back at the turn of the 20th century. The third Aga

Khan had established a number of powerful breeding and racing operations around the

world by the time of his death in 1957.

Trained by Sir Michael Stoute at Newmarket, and ridden by the “choirboy” Walter

Swinburn, a trainer in his own right now, Shergar was returned to Ireland after his first

winning season where he was syndicated for £10 million between 34 people, each share

of the horse being worth a reported £250,000, and a further six shares were retained by

the Aga Khan himself.

Syndicating Shergar for significantly less than the American breeders were offering

meant that the Aga Khan IV was able to keep one of the best racehorses in the world

close to hand.

During his first season at stud Shergar “covered” 35 mares and owners paid up to

£80,000 a time for the privilege of owning one of his offspring.

Page 17: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

As his second season at stud approached the expectation was that during 1983 he would

cover a further 55 mares and that his legacy would live on in his progeny for years to

come. The career ahead of him at stud was going to be a distinguished one, but aged just

five years old certain individuals had other ideas and on the evening of February 8th

1983 fate intervened and Shergar was kidnapped.

Everyone both in the UK and Ireland were determined that they were going to get him

back, there was a massive media storm (we can only imagine with the advent of social

media how big that storm would have been in today’s terms), and the Dublin police also

offered a reward for his return which was worth almost £300,000 in today’s money.

Tens of British journalists headed to Co Kildare and the then Chief Superintendent

James “Spud” Murphy became the face of the media as he tried to use psychics and

mediums to solve the case of the missing horse. On his first media interview he told

reporters that he was “slightly concerned” about the theft of Shergar and he added that

“a stallion” “cannot be kept by someone who is not well up in the horsey field.”

The sad fact is that Murphy was portrayed as the bumbling Inspector Clouseau but the

real problem for Murphy was that he was totally unprepared for the international

attention that the theft created.

He had previously been a prominent player in the investigation of Ireland’s most

notorious art theft where nineteen master pieces were stolen and held for ransom to fund

weapons for the IRA. Murphy was part of the team that tracked and eventually arrested

Bridget Rose Dugdale the major player in the heist, so he was no stranger to big cases.

But who stole Shergar and why, and more importantly what happened to the horse?

There are numerous stories as to what actually happened to Shergar, and in truth no-one

will ever know, but who stole him is strongly believed to have been the work of the

Irish Republican Army (IRA).

Shortly after 8pm Jim Fitzgerald, Shergar’s head groom who lived on site at the stud

yard opened the door to be face with two masked gunmen, one of whom turned to

Fitzgerald and said “We have come for Shergar. We want £2 million for him”.

Kidnapped from his stable in County Kildare in the height of the troubles in Ireland,

Shergar was to be held for ransom.

Page 18: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

The gunmen forced Fitzgerald toward Shergar’s stable and on arriving there Fitzgerald

found a further six masked gunmen who proceeded to force the groom to load Shergar

in to a horsebox they had brought along. They then forced Fitzgerald in to a car with

them while holding a gun to him, two of the men remaining behind and keeping his

family at gunpoint to ensure his silence. After giving him a code word to be used during

the ransom negotiations, and driving around for three hours he was dumped on the side

of the road.

Fitzgerald says, "I can still remember that night in that car with them lads. All sorts of

thoughts were racing through my head about what they might do to me. One of them,

with the revolver, was very aggressive," Mr. Fitzgerald told the Telegraph in an

interview.

No one really knows why it took a further five hours for the police to be informed but it

is reported that after being dumped Fitzgerald found his way to a telephone and rang his

brother. Following on from this call a series of further calls were made between the

shareholders, the vet, racing associates and at least two Irish cabinet Ministers who were

informed prior to the police being advised of the incident.

All in all eight hours had already passed before anyone had even started looking for the

missing horse, the kidnappers could have driven anywhere!

The kidnapper’s advantage was further exacerbated by Fitzgerald’s reluctance to give

the police any information regarding details of the vehicles used by the gunmen.

Page 19: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Naturally he was concerned for the welfare of his family and he had been warned what

would happen if he spoke to the police.

In addition, the kidnappers had been very clever in ensuring that the police investigation

would be a difficult one as they had chosen the day before Ireland’s big Goff racehorse

sale to kidnap Shergar. There were so many horseboxes driving around the countryside

that it would have been nigh on impossible to differentiate which box contained the

stolen horse.

The painstaking search by the police did eventually start with the public being

encouraged to check every stable, barn and outbuilding as the speculation grew that the

IRA had taken him. It was a time when the IRA was at the height of their powers,

fearless in their “task” and in dire need of cash to support the purchase of the arms for

the paramilitary wing.

There was silence, the kidnappers made no contact until some 24 hours after the

kidnapping.

Negotiations eventually began with a representative of the Aga Khan over the

telephone, the kidnappers ensuring that they were never on the phone long enough to be

traced, but little did they know that the syndicate had collectively agreed not to pay any

ransom for Shergar.

The kidnappers had failed to realise that Shergar belonged to a syndicate and was not

solely owned by the Aga Khan and the syndicate was of the opinion that if they made a

payment it would open the flood gates for the potential for any racehorse to be held to

ransom and many like Shergar were worth serious amounts of money.

Mind you even if any of the members had wanted to pay it was highly likely that the

Garda would have blocked any ransom payment.

Eventually the kidnappers agreed that they would negotiate with a racing journalist, a

man called Derek Thompson, yes that Derek Thompson, and he flew to Belfast. On

arrival he said “It was like being a film star, there were cameras all around”.

Sadly, after several failed attempts to demand money for the safe return of the Shergar

Thompson received a phone call where the kidnappers advised "The horse has had an

accident. He's dead."

There are a number of ideas which surround what may have actually happened to

Shergar one of which was that as he was in such a frightened state that an accident of

some kind occurred while in a frenzied panic and he was killed because his captors

couldn’t handle him.

Page 20: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Shergar's former jockey Walter Swinburn however said that he had “…never gone

along with the theory that he was too hard to control because he was the quietest,

gentlest horse, with a bombproof temperament." Other suggestions are more gruesome.

A former IRA member reported told the Sunday Telegraph: "Shergar was machine

gunned to death. There was blood everywhere and the horse even slipped on his own

blood. There was lots of cussing and swearing because the horse wouldn't die. It was a

very bloody death."

Most of the syndicate members had purchased insurance to protect their investment in

the horse and some of them had policies which covered them for death OR theft of

Shergar. There was no doubt that the horse had been stolen and theft claims were paid

in full by the end of a year, but those who only had mortality cover were going to be

unable to collect on the insurance without proof of the death of the horse.

Every now and then a package from someone who makes the claim that they have found

the remains of Shergar finds its way to the Irish Equine Centre addressed to a well-

known equine veterinarian and clinical pathologist, Des Leadon who works at the

centre. He keeps under lock and key a DNA sample from Shergar as a reference so that

if one day the horses remains are found then there can be no doubt that they belong to

the horse, and the story can be laid to rest.

Other snippets of information pertaining to the investigation continue to surface such as

a controversially highly redacted cover sheet for an FBI memo which suggests that the

gang which stole Shergar may well have relocated themselves to Spain; however any

files on this matter apparently remain closed. No-one has ever admitted the theft of

Shergar. The body has never been found.

The most valuable horse in the world disappeared without trace, and so the kidnap

continues to be one of those stories which remain very sensitive among many in Ireland

given the inability of any of the authorities to be able to locate the horse, or even

identify the men who were responsible for his kidnap.

The IRA have never officially admitted that they were responsible for the kidnapping

and many of the individuals involved in the story have died now, and many others are

reluctant to talk about the kidnapping, but still, more than 30 years after the event the

kidnap of Shergar and his undeniable untimely death continues to be one of horse

racing’s most famous cold cases.

Shergar’s story has been the inspiration for numerous books, documentaries, together

with a number of film productions. You can see a selection on Amazon -

http://amazon.co.uk

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

Page 22: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Tipster Profile

This month’s Tipster Profile takes a look at Andy Wilson and Shaun Roberts the guys

behind the Biscayne Bets tipping service.

(Discount trial offer at the end of this article)

These two guys are happy to have a laugh and enjoy life but don’t be fooled, they are

equally as passionate in their professional life with their soul aim being to ensure that

their profitable product remains exactly that, profitable.

With more than 20 years’ experience in the racing industry they are well connected to

various “sources” given their location close to the racing industry’s headquarters in

Newmarket.

So, what do they put their success down to? This can be summed up in one simple

word, consistency. Even during periods of losing runs which are inevitable for all

services maintaining a consistent approach has been their key word for profitable

success.

They admit that they are in a very privileged position in that a close friend of theirs used

to be a handicap race specialist based at a top yard in Newmarket, and as the saying

goes it’s not what you know but who you know, and he has passed on his wealth of

knowledge to these guys.

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On a daily basis they will sit down and analyse the days racing using the techniques

they have been provided with and, together with their own acquired knowledge, will

flag up particular trends, form, jockey bookings and class bias which gives them a good

indication of when a particular horse is primed to strike or being lined up by a trainer

for a particular race and the horse can be considered a value bet.

Like all of us though their success came as a result of a learning curve and the guys

openly admit that they have made many mistakes over the years. Trying different

approaches throughout the time they have dedicated to horse racing and gambling has

led them to where they are today.

They have had to refine their selection processes and endeavour to always review their

methods and make adjustments where necessary in enhancing their approach. They feel

that this has worked well and they are very satisfied with the service they offer and the

Return On Investment currently being met.

The bulk of their selections are geared around the handicap races with the odd maiden

race here and there. Like many of us they are not particularly interested in the short

priced bets and will search out the value bets. Short priced selections require a

phenomenal strike rate to return a healthy profit and whether we like to admit it or not

we all encounter losing runs so value is the only way to make a profit in the long term.

They also admit to having a particular interest in choosing certain selections based on

breeding but predominantly they stick to a well-structured and systematic analysis

approach.

Depending on a number of factors they will look to put in at least four hours of study

every day, there is no other way to find the selections, it requires a time commitment,

and normally they will produce recommended tips every day. There can obviously be

exceptions when racing is poor, but they work hard to get the selections out early in the

morning so that subscribers can achieve the best odds possible.

They openly admit that there is no pure science to being successful at betting, there have

been years of hard work, late nights, plenty of frustration and a lot of refinement, but

they have learnt a lot on the journey to where they are now. They don’t see it as

gambling, it’s their business and winners are profits and it is no different to having a full

order book, losers are the expenses, and yes there are times when it can be a very bad

day at the office. As long as at the end of the month the expenses are kept to a minimum

and the orders keep coming in, a positive bottom line is all that matters.

Horse racing is their passion day in and day out so that certainly helps to ensure that the

business runs smoothly, having a passion about your work means you can give it your

all. What gets them up in the morning is horse racing, but for others it may equally be

two flies crawling up a wall.

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If it is profitable and pays don’t knock it but the guys specialise in what they are best at.

The one question which you can guarantee will always be asked of any tipping service

is, if you are successful with your selections and your own gambling, why would you

want to sell your tips to others?

The guys do bet on their own selections and have made long term profits doing so, but

they feel that with the numerous scams which are being produced via the internet they

have to demonstrate a reputable platform and promotion model. Betfan and its

subsidiaries offer them that platform as it has already built a reputation which is both

professional and transparent. The “Academy” model in Tipster Planet offers services the

opportunity to prove themselves as a viable, consistent and profitable service before

being launched to potential members and subscribers.

The most rewarding thing for the guys at Biscayne Bets is that buzz of when the

winners and the results are tallied up at the end of the month. They feel that if they can

share that feeling and help their subscribers step in to the world of serious investment

then that is fine with them.

They also feel strongly that any potential punter when searching for a tipster worth

following should look for an honest, consistent and reliable service. The long term

objective should be to achieve a profit but using sensible staking levels and also

importantly a sensible staking plan. All emotion has to be taken out of the equation and

both the punter and the service provider need to treat the gambling as a business, they

can’t emphasise this enough. It is easy to become emotional and from that emotion

emerges irrationality.

We all read often the situation regarding the bookmakers “closing” of accounts or

virtual closing by restricting your stake to the smallest amount possible. So what is the

guy’s advice when it comes to minimising the impact of this bookmaker behaviour?

First up they suggest opening as many accounts as you can and spread your bets across

those accounts. By spreading the bets you are minimising the chances of being flagged

by the bookmaker as a potential risk account. Also do NOT open multiple accounts “in

the wife’s name” etc., the bookmakers these days are well set up to monitor post codes

and addresses.

Sadly bookmakers although on the surface smile and encourage you to bet with them,

they are a business too and are in that business to make profits. If they see a potential

threat to those profits then, like any business, they will cut the ties. Of course you

always have the Betting Exchanges and as long as they make their commissions then

they are not going to be interested in restricting you. They make money whether you

win or lose.

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The exchanges will more than likely offer shorter odds on the early prices but as long as

you are making a good return on your money that shouldn’t be an issue.

So why should you join their service over and above anyone else’s? Hopefully their

results speak for themselves.

Since the service commenced in September 2015 they have produced over 730 points

profit, and in fact 2016 alone has already produced more than 150 points to best odds

guaranteed and advised stakes!

On Course Profit readers can try Biscayne Bets for just £5 + Vat using this special

link http://hop.betfanplus.com/10099/7/discount/23/ba8uje7y

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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Summer National Hunt Racing

It is very easy for us to get caught up in the prestige of the Flat season once it gets

started that we forget that the National Hunt campaign continues now throughout the

year. As a matter of course our punting switches from one race code to another.

We follow our chasers when the weather is gloomy and grey and see them purely as an

aside once the summer sunshine arrives. We are sure that we are probably all guilty of

this, but why? A little investigation will show us that there are profitable angles to be

had during the summer jump meetings too if we know where to look.

We do have to pick and choose, we are aware of this, as there are undoubtedly instances

where a horse will be running so that the owners can have a jolly jaunt out on a sunny

afternoon, but there are also those horses which much prefer the firmer footing of the

ground during the summer months.

G L Moore

Gary Moore (G L Moore) operates from the Cisswood Racing Stables at Sandygate

Lane in Horsham, West Sussex and is the largest dual purpose trainer in the UK. The

stable is very much a family affair with his wife Jayne playing an important support role

and children Jamie, Joshua and Hayley also lending significant hands.

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They originally started from home built stables located opposite the Brighton racecourse

but later moved to Cisswood in 2007.

The stables have top class training facilities and are set in 180 acres of woodland and

countryside allowing horses to be turned out to grass whenever necessary.

He has always been held in high regard with his big handicap hurdlers but is also a

respected All Weather trainer.

We have mentioned him in previous issues but he also merits a mention with regard to

his summer jumpers.

Over the past three years he has produced 49 placed horses from 161 runners over the

summer jumps during the months of May to August inclusive, including 27 winners.

Interestingly though the majority of those winners have occurred in the past two years.

Is Mr Moore looking to capitalise on the summer jumping circuit while other National

Hunt trainers are off on their holidays with their feet up?

So, if you had been backing his summer jumpers to win over the past two years you

would have cleared over 70 points profit to £1.00 Level Stakes (LS) using Industry

Starting Prices (ISP).

Not surprisingly he has twice as many runners in the handicap races as non handicaps

and this is where the bulk of the profits have come from.

In fact with the Non Handicap runners the winners were priced 9/2, 4/1, 4/5, 11/4, 20/1,

6/4 and 11/4.

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Without that 20/1 winner we would undoubtedly have been looking at a sizeable loss

with the Non-Handicap runners.

Our handicap runners have a pretty even strike rate over the past two years.

Handicap Runners Only 1

And in fact splitting our results out to show the monthly results there have been in fact

just 3 months out of the 8 where we would have seen a very small loss, and we are

happy to stomach that given the overall results.

August 2015 did have both a 20/1 and a 10/1 winner from the 4 winners during that

month, but without these we would still have seen a profit.

The Place Strike Rate may suggest that an Each Way betting approach may be

beneficial, but when we look at the results in depth we find that overall we would have

made slightly less profit.

The prices of the 15 winners varied from 11/10 out to 20/1, and 12 of these have been

greater than 4/1, but 12 of those winners came from his 4yr old + handicap hurdlers.

If you had backed the 47 selections at Betfair SP you would have in fact enhanced your

profits to 101.14 to level stakes.

Page 30: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

That equates to a 215% return on your investment.

So, on this basis we would suggest a straight back to win approach on Gary

Moore’s Handicap Hurdlers (Aged 4 +) is worthy of our time this year as it will be

interesting to see if these results can be achieved again.

Take Betfair Starting Prices or BOG’s if you can achieve them.

A J Carroll

Tony Carroll operates out of Mill House Racing Stables in Cropthorn Worcestershire,

where the purpose built premises were opened in 2006.

Another dual purpose trainer Carroll sends his horses over the jumps, to the flat and the

all-weather.

A quick look at his national Hunt entries during the months of May-August clearly

shows a positive return over the past five years although the number of selections would

not have been massive.

But it is the most recent two years which have produced the bulk of these profits as with

our hurdles candidate G L Moore.

6 winners from 17 selections during 2014 and 2015 give us a win strike rate of 35% and

interestingly the place success rate is only one better with 7 from 17, so the suggestion

would be if they run well then they win.

The wins were also priced in the main at healthy odds in the betting which is interesting

and therefore indicates that maybe, just maybe, we are looking at a trainer whose entries

during the summer jumping months continue to be missed by many. Priced at 9/1, 16/1,

7/2, 9/1, 17/2 and 12/1 the prices appeal and although as we are historically looking at

just a handful of runners over the summer months we shouldn’t be looking at long

losing runs before achieving a winning bet at a reasonable price.

Page 31: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Again, it is the handicap races he targets with just one selection running in a non

handicap race in the past 2 years.

Don’t be put off if you see the same horse entered in a race during the months in

question on more than one occasion. This may well be because the horse prefers the

firmer going and the summer months may offer the only opportunity for the horse to run

on conditions which suit. 2014 saw Got Attitude run on three separate occasions on

Good and Good/Firm going and win each race. Those three wins returned half of the

profits shown above. And as we have said before a profit is a profit no matter what

avenue it comes from.

Do not disregard a principle just because the sample size is small. It may well be that

the small sample size is small for a reason and it can offer a highly selective and

lucrative approach to your betting.

The key thing here is that we have targeted two trainers who we will be following over

different and very specific codes of racing. This ensures that, as we have learned in the

past may happen, we do not find ourselves looking to back more than one selection in a

race and hence dilute any potential profits.

And finally let’s cover all of the National Hunt bases during the summer months and

take a look at the National Hunt Flat races.

W Greatrex

The stand out performer in recent years seems to have been Warren Greatrex operating

out of Upper Lambourn, Berkshire.

The numbers of runners again are not prolific as we can see but the past three years

have shown excellent strike rates both to win and to place.

During these three years there have been just two out of the 12 months which have

shown a small loss (the largest of which was June last year when we would have lost 3

points), and so on that basis we certainly think it is worth running with this year.

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Selections tend to run during the front end of the summer and the winning prices have

varied from 1/2 – 11/1 but in the main have been in single figures and therefore we will

be looking to back the selections to Win.

In addition take note of Seamus Durack entries on the summer National Hunt turf.

Another trainer whose summer runners have had an excellent strike rate over the past

three years.

Numbers of runners are limited, but they tend to come out toward the back end of the

summer months and the returns have been worthy of note offering almost the same level

stakes profit as Greatrex but with almost half the number of runners.

Combining these two trainers over the past three years has provided consistent levels

stakes profits with the worst losing month showing a loss of 2 points back in July 2013.

Acorn 10 – G J Moore / A W Carroll / W Greatrex & S Durack

Applies during the months of May – August inclusive

G J Moore – Back all 4yr old + Handicap Hurdlers to WIN only using BFSP

A W Carroll – Back all Handicap Chasers to WIN only using BFSP

W Greatrex & S Durack – Back all NHF runners to WIN only using BFSP

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

Page 33: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Acorn Updates

Acorn 1 – The Next day Runners

In a previous issue we planted the seed with regards to the possible successes of

following those horses which run on consecutive days, where they go off favourite in

the race if they had run the previous day.

It was an old idea which had originally been picked up on by a few punters out there

way back in 2000.

This was a true “Acorn” as we knew that there would be a very limited number of

selections.

We were concerned with Handicap flat runners ONLY. The premise being that

handicappers are more likely to be run again quite quickly before the handicapper has

the opportunity to raise their handicap mark.

As we were looking at the Flat season we looked to also concern ourselves solely with

the months of April to September only.

2015 produced just 7 selections but of those 2 were winners, Berrahri 11/4 (BFSP –

4.53) and Pour La Victoire 13/2 (BFSP – 7.95).

Page 34: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Resultant Profit 4.96 points (after 5% commission)

Strike Rate: 28.5%

ROI: 70.9%

2016 to date (12th April) – No selections so far but keep a note to watch out for any

potential runners.

Method Recap – Operates for the months of April to September inclusive

UK Racing ONLY, Flat and All Weather ONLY, Handicaps ONLY.

Horse must have run the previous day, Running the next day (today) and going off

Favourite / Co Favourite or Joint Favourite just before the off.

_____________________________________________________________________

Acorn 2 – The Small Field Angle

The small field angle looked at particular jockeys who performed well in those races

with 5 runners or fewer, and we applied the method throughout the year.

In particular we were concerned with the following: Harry Bentley – Flat and AW,

Richard Kingscote – Flat and AW, Fergal Lynch – Flat and AW, Charles Bishop – Flat

Only, Ryan Powell – Flat Only, Michael J M Murphy – Flat and AW.

Bets were to be placed as WIN only and even if the horse was favourite, we had no

price criteria.

The performance for 2015 overall to Level Stakes and Industry Starting Prices was as

follows:

We have little doubt that these figures would have been improved upon if you had used

Betfair Starting Prices.

2016 to date has had 13 selections with 2 winners in Gambit 4/7 and Kemsing 7/2, so it

is still early days but we are expecting a number of potential races on the turf in

particular over the coming months.

______________________________________________________________________

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Acorn 3 – Creatures of Habit – Nigel Twiston Davies

Applies to month of October only.

Back to win when priced between Evens and 12/1 all Non Handicap Chasers and

Hurdlers.

We have covered the success of this method previously but to recap 2015 results were

as follows:

Resultant Profit 10.23 points (after 5% commission)

Strike Rate: 18.2%

ROI: 120.3%

______________________________________________________________________

Acorn 4 – The Three Amigos

As we write this Issue The Three Amigos will be coming to a close for this year as the

method operates during the months of November through to the end of April.

The Three Amigos method is as follows:

Trainers to follow: Kevin Bishop, Victor Dartnall and Anthony Honeyball.

Months to follow: November – April inclusive

Race Types to follow: Handicap Hurdles ONLY

Staking: Back selections Each Way

To the date or writing (12th April 2016) the results to Level Stakes profits have been as

follows:

November 2015 – 23 selections / 5 winners / 11 placed – Each Way return + 9.10

December 2015 – 15 selections / 3 winners / 4 placed – Each Way return -4.00

January 2016 – 6 selections / 1 winner / 3 placed – Each Way return -0.42

February 2016 – 14 selections / 1 winner / 3 placed – Each Way return -3.62

March 2016 – 15 selections / 2 winners / 8 placed – Each Way return + 21.50

Page 36: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

April 2016 (as at 14/04/16) – 6 selections / 3 winners / 3 placed – Each

Way return +16.50

Current totals based on 1 point each way.

Points profit +39.06

Place Strike Rate: 40.51%

ROI : 24.72%

______________________________________________________________________

Acorn 5 – Something Old Something New

We have shelved this one (well we can’t win all the time).

______________________________________________________________________

Acorn 6 – Profitable Trainers

Jonjo O’Neill runners resulted in us losing 7 points with just 3 of the 7 selections

actually finishing in the places.

Seamus Mullins runners also resulted in a loss with the 11 runners producing 10 each

way selections of which just 2 placed and a loss overall Each Way of -14.62 points.

______________________________________________________________________

Acorn 7 – Here Come The Girls

Jennie Candlish – No Selections to date

• UK Flat runners (excluding All Weather)

• Class 4, 5, 6,7

• Handicap ONLY

• Back to WIN ONLY

5f and 8f – Watching brief.

As the new Flat Turf season kicks in start taking note of the runners for this one, we

think it could well be a profitable one.

Mrs Sheila Crow

• ALL UK runners

• Back to PLACE ONLY

• Use Betfair place market and Betfair Place Starting Prices.

Page 37: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Just 4 runners so far in 2016 and no luck as yet but we will keep with this one as it is

early days.

Tracey Collins

• Irish All Weather runners at DUNDALK

• Runners over 1m or less

• Priced in single figures

• Back to WIN ONLY

Since the beginning of February we have had 4 selections and one winner in Captain

Joy 4/5 (BFSP 1.86).

______________________________________________________________________

Acorn 8 – Here Come The Girls – Part 2

Julie Camacho – No selections to date

Deborah Sanderson – No selections to date

M J Smith – Just one runner to date finished 7th

______________________________________________________________________

Acorn 9 – Early Season Trainers

R M Beckett – 7 selections and 3 winners to date in Hereawi 4/1, Mountain Bell 6/4

and Sightline 9/4

D O’Meara – 17 selections and 2 winners in Alphabetical Order 9/2 and Dandyleekie

12/1.

D K Weld – 13 selections so far with 3 winners, Va Pensiero 100/30, Topaz Clear 11/4

and Harzand 2/1 with Burma Star finishing 2nd having been beaten by less than a

length!

R Hannon Jnr – 4 selections so far with 1 winner from Sterling Silva 7/4

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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Arbitrage – The Timing Is Everything

One common question often asked is “when is the best time to arbitrage trade”, in fact,

is there a best time?

The short answer to both of these questions is, all the time!

No matter what time of the day or night you check in to the betting world the odds are

changing continually and as long as the odds are changing there will always be an

opportunity somewhere for an arb to occur. You just have to be in the right place at the

tight time.

If you use any of the software packages available on the market you will undoubtedly

be finding price changes but you will also be chasing these with the other hundreds of

people using the software so you may find that in fact the very best time to arb is when

all the others are not sat at their pc’s and may well be safely tucked up in their beds.

Now we are not advocating staying up all night, though there is an idea…but we also

need to remember that arbitrage is a global phenomenon and as such there will be

arbitrage traders operating throughout the night over in Australia and New Zealand.

Arbitrage is a strange one though as you can spend all day and all night sitting at the pc

and not catch one single bite of a worthwhile arb, but you can blink and in a matter of

seconds make several hundred pounds as the arbs come along like the proverbial buses.

Page 40: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Needless to say the time you arb will be dependent on the sports you are looking to

trade and in particular trading opportunities can manifest themselves at two particular

times of the day, there are others, but more about them later.

The first time of note is when the bookmakers first post up their odds. A price which is

out of line sufficiently will very easily create a money making opportunity. Bookmakers

will post up at various times and finding exactly when is nigh on impossible to

establish, but, having said that, certain times of the day can be more lucrative than

others.

Analysis confirms that bookmakers post their odds for certain sports at certain times of

the day, give or take a half an hour here or there and if you are aware of this then you

can take advantage of this knowledge.

The second time is shortly before the start of a particular sporting event: Bookmakers

may well be looking to balance their books and take more money on one side of an

event than another. For example, trading the NFL American Football where matches

start at 6 pm and around 9 pm (UK time) on a Sunday evening means that you would be

advised to be sitting at your pc and logged on an hour or so prior to these kick off times.

There are of course other factors which mean that the lines, or the odds, can move for an

event.

“Team News” is one such piece of information which can have a significant effect on

the odds. For example if Messi isn’t playing for Barcelona this evening then the price

on them winning their match will almost certainly lengthen. Any injuries to key players

will have a similar effect and this kind of news does not just affect football. You only

need to watch what happens if one of the major “superstar” players pulls out of a

basketball match.

Watch also for those mid-week football fixtures where the team are also playing again

at the weekend. If they win well mid-week you can be sure that their odds will shorten

on their weekend match.

We can also profit from that other wonderful football novelty, the manager merry go

round. How many sackings are there every season, too many some may say. Well when

a manager or senior coach leaves a club you can guarantee that the prices will move on

that teams next match fixture.

It used to be that the market would also be influenced by the American tipsters who

were able to use their influence on the markets quite effectively.

If the “hot tipster” suggested that the Miami Dolphins should beat the handicap this

time around then the price would shorten considerably.

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Sadly the demise of betting in the US has bought this avenue to a close, but you can see

how the principle can be applied elsewhere.

It is worth remembering though that it is not just the time of day which can make your

work more productive and more importantly profitable.

A calendar of forthcoming sporting events is a very handy tool to have in the arbitrage

armoury. Make sure you know when all of the major events are taking place, the tennis

and gold majors are often lucrative and along with the host of other events going on

around the world at any one time you can start to plan your time to make the most of

your efforts.

Don’t go booking your holidays at the same time as the Wimbledon fortnight or you

will probably miss out on some decent arbing opportunities and of course no

professional arbitrager will even contemplate going on holiday at the same time as the

World Cup that just wouldn’t bear thinking about.

The key to any arb is the differing opinions of the bookmakers; their differences are

what create those arbing opportunities. There are occasions when it is pure fact that

Manchester United gets drawn against a team such as Shrewsbury Town in the good old

English FA Cup, but how on earth to the bookmakers price up that match? Okay sure,

we know that Manchester United will be priced up as favourites but what price do the

bookmakers price them up at, and what on earth do they do about the pricing for

Shrewsbury Town? What if Man Utd decided that they are going to field a weaker team

and rest some of their more important star players? The bookmaker has to find a way to

price the teams up and this can undoubtedly cause them a few headaches and also see

them out of line with their colleagues at other bookmakers.

As long as all of these types of variables are around, such as injuries, sackings,

mismatched fixtures then there will always be a potential for an arbitrage opportunity.

We have touched previously on the betting coupons available in the betting shops

around the UK and these are another source where there will be changes in the odds

which can be capitalised on. Admittedly it appears to be getting more and more difficult

for arbitragers to get sufficient funds on in the betting shops on these coupons to make

some of these opportunities worth their while but it is still possible, particularly if you

are prepared to travel a little further afield and to a shop that maybe doesn’t see your

friendly face too often.

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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Product Reviews

We are pleased to report on a number of services with positive results, and we also have

a few looking as though they may have potential.

Cost: First 30 days £1.00 thereafter £29.95 per month or £69.95 per quarter

The Trial: The trial for this service, which comes from the Betting Gods stable,

commenced mid-January.

To date we have received 101 lay selections, of which 84 have been successful at an

average Betfair price of 5.42.

All of the lays are made to 1 point at the prevailing Betfair Starting Price (BSP) and the

profit after allowing 5% commission currently stands at 24.45 points.

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A further full month for review will give us an even better picture.

Conclusion: This is one of the most consistent laying services we have reviewed to

date. We would certainly consider adding this to any portfolio of services.

You can find out more by visiting the website

Cost: £24.00 + VAT every 28 days or £48.00 + VAT every 90 days.

The Trial: After just two months we ceased receiving the advices from Howards Eye-

Catchers which, in truth, didn’t really feel like any loss.

During the period we received the selections our total advises received was 89 of which

11 were winners, but our loss overall was to the tune of almost 67 points based on

staking of between 1 and 3 points per selection.

Conclusion: One to be avoided in our opinion, though if you are interested to find out

for yourself you can do so by visiting the service here.

Cost: £37.00 + VAT every 28 days or £74.00 + VAT every 90 days

The Trial: Unfortunately our 3 month trial has now ended and we say unfortunately as

this is one service which we have been very pleased with.

Our final results overall show 83 selections of which there were 23 winning bets and a

resultant profit of almost 37 points.

Page 44: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

With a Return on Investment of 13.50% we feel that this is a realistic return which can

be offered with a strong degree of consistency.

Conclusion: Well worth your serious consideration. Find out more by visiting the

website.

Cost: £57.00 + VAT every 28 days or £99.00 + VAT every 90 days

The Trial: This is another trial which has come to its conclusions and unlike Maximum

Racing Profits we are afraid to say that this service continued with its poor performance.

Our final position at the end of the trial of 200 selections was a resultant 26 winners and

an overall loss of 190 points!

Conclusion: Not one to be recommended, but you can find out more here.

Cost: £7.00 for the first month and then £27.00 per month or £57.00 per quarter.

The Trial: yet another positive month for Statpicks with 12 winners from 43 selections

and a profit for the latest month of 17.50 points.

Overall we are currently standing at 33 winning bets from the 128 selections received

and almost 38 points profit which equates to a Return On Investment of just short of

30%.

You may find that on occasions there is a quart or half a point shaved off the prices

achieved but our results have still proven very positive.

Conclusion. Highly recommended - Find out more here.

Page 45: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Cost: £7.00 for the first 7 days then £90.00 every 90 days.

The Trial: Another trial which has come to an end is that of Lay Bet Profits.

The latest month has in fairness recovered almost all of the previous losses incurred

during our trial; however, just managing to break even after 3 months before even

taking in to account the costs of subscriptions to the service means better results are

needed.

Conclusion: Not recommended, but you can find out more here.

Cost: £49.00 monthly / £99.00 quarterly / £279.00 yearly

The Trial – This football tipping service changed its approach during our trial and

instead of backing the advised teams as singles and as a double all of the selections

were advised to be backed as double bets only.

The email delivery for the service has been a little erratic at times and there were six

days where there were no selections at all however of the doubles advised were winning

bets at advised prices of between/ 4/6 and 4/1.

Our shortest priced winning double was Bayern Munich and Borussia

Monchengladbach and the largest priced being in the International Friendlies with

Ukraine and Northern Ireland.

The strike rate of 58% resulted in a profit of almost 12 points based on level stakes, so

although this is a way off from recovering the losses for the previous two months it is a

start and hopefully an indication that the service is returning to winning ways.

Page 46: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Conclusion: Awaiting final review but in the meantime you can find out more here.

Cost: Dependent on desired contract

The Trial: With this service you pay for your profit in advance of receiving the

selections with the aim being that the tips make the profit for you.

Our target has been 50 points but at the end of last month our returns had gone

backwards so for the contract to be honoured the service needed to produce for us 70

points of profit.

With 58 selections under our belt, and backing between 1 and 5 points per selection we

have had 16 winning selections and a number of placed selections we have sadly

slipped a little further in to the red.

As things stand now we need 75 points to complete the deal. We are not giving up so

we will update again next time.

Conclusion: Under review. Find out more here

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

Page 47: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

Top Ten Tipsters

Looking back over the last three months clearly demonstrates that the levels of profits

suggested by some services of 200-300% Return on Investment are almost impossible

to achieve long term.

It is unlikely that any service can maintain these levels of returns indefinitely.

Finding a service whose approach is one which can offer a much steadier and consistent

return with carefully selected tips is certainly more preferable.

All figures are based on Best Odds Guaranteed to Advised Stakes

1. Value Backing Extra – Strike Rate 21% ROI 51%

The Value Backing service has consistently delivered positive profits and continues to

do so with the service concentrating on the bigger race meetings, but in between, and

for those who like a more regular punt, there are the Value Backing Extra tips which

also come as part of the service. Prices of the selections vary but as the name suggests

value is the key.

Find out more about the service here

Page 48: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

2. Early Odds – Strike Rate 26% ROI 45%

Since mid-January this service has been on the up and up with steady profits being

regularly added.

The latest winners, Card Game 7/2 and Attain 8/1 are an example of the prices of the

runners selected but they do go in for a larger priced selection every now and then. They

quite often find themselves suffering a case of seconditis, but this in itself is a positive

as it suggests they are certainly picking those which intend to run to their best.

Find out more about the service

3. The Serious Betting Club – Strike Rate 39% ROI 39%

February and March were positive months for this service with their profits peaking in

mid-March. Since then they have managed well to maintain much of the profits earned.

Find out more about the service

4. Russell Blair Racing – Strike Rate 16% ROI 35%

The strike rate for Russell Blair Racing is low in comparison to many of their

counterparts however a ROI of 35% is one we would be very happy with. Finding

winners at 20/1 such as Roudee and Insolenceoffice is not an easy task but find them

they do.

Find out more about the service

5. Winning Way – Strike Rate 32% ROI 30%

Winning Way peaked at the end of January and in truth it has been a roller-coaster since

but they are maintaining their head above water and if they can find more winners like

Ubak 20/1 things should remain positive.

Find out more about the service

6. Weekend Racing – Strike Rate 45% ROI 30%

As the name suggests the service concentrates on the weekend meetings. A good strike

rate so far and sine the end of January they have maintained positive results.

Find out more about the service

7. Paul Lines SureFire Tips – Strike Rate 27% ROI 23%

The SureFire Tips were a little hit and miss in March but April has started off on a

blinder with Diamond Vine and Dream Ally winning priced at 10/1, and Loughlader

16/1 to name a few.

Find out more about the service

8. Maximum Racing Profits – Strike Rate 34% ROI 21%

Maximum Racing Profits was desperately in the red in mid-January but the results since

have been worthy. Selections of note have been Miss Lillie 6/1, Welease Brian 8/1, and

Portway Flyer 17/2

Find out more about the service

Page 49: Editor's Welcome · The fact is that, although in the minority, there are jumps horses who prefer ground firmer than the soft that prevails during the winter and there are trainers

9. Lucky 7 Naps – Strike Rate 22% ROI 18%

Lucky 7 Naps have been lucky with one or two big priced winners usually carrying

them through, however their latest month has shown a little more consistency with

Suqoor 8/1, Kemsing 8/1, Kylla Instinct 5/1, and Librisa Breeze 4/1

Find out more about the service

10. Unity Racing Club – Strike Rate 20% ROI 15%

Another service which has benefited from the spring weather is the Unity Racing Club.

The end of March saw a nice win with Insolenceoffice 12/1 (Advd) and they have been

maintaining a good level of profit since the end of February.

Find out more about the service

© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd