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Page 1: Editor: Kevin Cheng Tel: (852) 2277 6626 Email ...research.cyberquote.com.hk/page/htm/kc/share_companyrpt/support… · able to resume export of frozen shrimp to the US. We have a
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MCI (P) 194/11/2012 Ref No: RM2013_0157 1 of 14

Regional Market Focus

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

19 August 2013

Hong Kong

CSR (1766HK1766-20130819.pdf.HK) – The orders of MU is restarting Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Closing price: HKD5.92 Target price: HKD6.59

The income and the net margin in the first half of 2013 of Anton Oilfields increased by 31% and 28% year-on-year respectively and reached to 1060 million yuan and 170 million yuan and this growth is lower than the data at the same period of 2012 and also slightly lower than our financial forecasting. In the first half year, although the company's year-on-year growth ratio of the number of completed service is only 10%, the company keeps the excellent profitability by introducing various advanced technologies.

The orders of MU is restarting: At the beginning of August, CRC announced the open tenders for 726 passenger carriagers, 28900 freight wagons and 225 locomotives, and meanwhile, it also announced the tender for 318 units of MU’s CIR. We estimate this batch of the tenders is amounted to around RMB20 billion, quite big gap from the target of RMB100 billion. In the middle of August, CRC announced the tender of 91 MU trains. Considering each MU needs to have 2 CIRs, we expect the amount of the remaining MU tender to be 68 units, total MU orders of around RMB30 billion. According to original plan, CRC will announce the second round of bidding with the amount of RMB50 billion approximately by the end of this year.

The demand of MU got back to the growth path again. Recently China’s State Council announced that total investment of Twelfth Five-year plan of railway increased to RMB3.3 trillion from the original RMB2.8 trillion, of which the target of investment in fixed assets of railway was up from RMB650 billion at the beginning of this year to RMB690 billion, and newly constructed railway projects increased from 38 to 47. There are 3,600 km. and 6,000 km. of high-speed railway will be opened in 2013 and 2014 respectively, and the demand of MU may still increase.

CSR’s FY2013 result trends to be “First down and then pick-up”. Considering the delay of bidding due to the railway reform since 1H, the Company’s orders of MU have been completed currently, and the risks of idle capacity appear, and we hold the un-optimistic view on its interim results. The restarting of the tenders in remaining time of this year has a positive impact on the Company’s FY2013H2 result. Additionally, the economic policy of “steady growth” of GDP heats up continually and domestic infrastructure investments are in operation gradually, which will help the market to enhance the confidence for the future of the Company, and here comes the investment opportunities of the stock.

The growth prospect of railways equipment industry is still positive in the middle and long term. For the issues of the process of CRC’s financing system reform that the market most concerns about, we believe the approval of the recent RMB150 billion bonds of CRC can only solve the urgent problems, and under the background of the high liabilities and the limitation of the financing, those policies such as the invitation of private capitals and the establishment of railway investment and development funds are expected to be announced, and the probability of the announcement of the plan for the railway investment and financing reform is also increasing within this year. In the middle and long term, the fast and convenience of high-speed railway is winning the support from the public, the popularity rate is also increasing gradually, and currently the occupancy of some popular routes of high-speed railway are close to saturation during holydays. The growth prospect of railways equipment industry is still positive.

Valuation: We expect the Company’s diluted EPS achieve to RMB0.327 and 0.384 in 2013 and 2014 respectively, correspond to HK$0.415 and 0.488. To increase the 12-month target price to HK$6.59, equivalent to leading P/E15.9x and 13.3x in 2013 and 2014 respectively, recommend Accumulate rating.

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

2 of 14

Thailand

Agro & Food Industry - Sector Update Recommendation: NEUTRAL

The US Department of Commerce announced its final determinations in the countervailing duty (CVD) investigations of imports of frozen shrimps from Thailand and other countries.

Before the investigations, the US has exempted the antidumping duty (AD) on frozen shrimp from Thailand at 0%.

That announcement will have positive impact on Thailand shrimp export for the foreseeable future and Thai exporters are expected to be able to resume export of frozen shrimp to the US.

We have a ‘NEUTRAL’ call for the shrimp industry. TUF (target price of Bt59/share) will likely reap the most benefits from this move. Kiatnakin Bank - Trade Flash Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt45.75 Fair value: Bt67.50

Loan for July increased 1.1% m-m and 9.6% from end-2012.

Deposit shrank 0.7% m-m but liquidity remained stable.

We expect KKP to pay an interim dividend of Bt1/share for 1HCY13 performance, translating to 2.2% yield.

For 2HCY13 performance, earnings growth is expected to slow down but outstanding dividend and significant upside convince us to have a ‘BUY’ call for KKP with a target price of Bt67.50/share.

PTT - Trade Flash Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt329 Fair value: Bt83

PTT’s Wast Heat Recovery Unit of Gas Separation Plant (GSP) Unit 5 was temporarily shut down due to an accident caused by a lightning strike during the heavy thunder storm on Aug 14, 2013. The repair is expected to take around 3-5 months. PTT carries insurance for property damage and business interruption coverage for GSP Unit 5.

For PTTGC, which gets gas feedstock from GSP Unit 5, the shutdown is initially expected to knock around Bt400mn/ month off its net profits though PTTGC also has insurance coverage.

We maintain a ‘BUY’ call on PTT and PTTGC with a CY13 target price of Bt407/share and Bt83/share based on a P/BV multiple of 1.4x and 1.5x respectively.

Sansiri - Trade Flash Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt2.70 Fair value: Bt3.40

SIRI’s 2QCY13 net profit turned out lower than forecast.

To reflect weaker-than-expected performance, we cut slightly our CY13 outlook. Earnings, however, still looks upbeat on sizable revenue backlog and strong presales.

We reiterate a ‘BUY’ rating on SIRI with a target price of Bt3.40/share.

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

3 of 14

Strategy

SECTOR/STRATEGY REPORTS:

- Sector Reports: Banking, 8 Jul / Telecommunications, 5 June / Commodities, 29 May / Offshore & Marine, 27 May - Country Strategy: China & HK 5 July / S’pore, 18 Jun / Thai, 17 Jun - Global Macro, Asset Strategy: 8 Jul, Update

Morning Commentary

STI: -0.73% to 3197.5 KLCI: -0.22% to 1788.2 JCI: -2.49% to 4568.7 SET: -0.50% to 1445.8 HSI: -0.10% to 22517 HSCEI: +0.13% to 10220 Nikkei: -0.75% to 13650 ASX200: -0.75% to 5113.9 S&P500: -0.33% to 1655.8 Nifty: -4.08% to 5507.9 MARKET OUTLOOK:

By Joshua Tan, Head of Research (assisted by Kenneth Koh) The correction in equities is underway, as we warned in last Monday’s webinar and last Friday’s morning commentary. Still, we expect this to be a near term correction and that the larger uptrend re-assert itself at some point. We will flag clients when we think that will be in our morning commentary and Monday webinars. Today’s webinar will give our usual blow by blow of macro conditions, market strategy, earnings review, and featured stock, which is GLP. To register for the webinar please click the blue link at the top of this morning note, or to go, www.poems.com.sg > weekly webinar market call by Phillip Research. (PhillipCFDs and ETFs for trading the market outlook can be found in the webinar slides above or the Global Macro report. PhillipUT Wrap Account offers tactical asset allocation of unit trusts without front loading sales charge.)

Macro Data

Singapore July non-oil exports fell 0.7% Y/y beating expectations of -2.9%. Despite the negative print, on a %y-y 3mma basis the trend is moving toward positive territory and we expect this year’s growth to be on the upper end of MTI’s forecast range. U.S. housing starts rose 5.9% from June to a seasonally annual rate of 896,000 from June’s revised figure of 846,000. This was less than expectations of 900,000. Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in August from a six-year high as Americans faced rising interest rates. The U.Mich Index fell to 80 from 85.1 in July 2007. Eurozone CPI remained unchanged last month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.6% from 1.6% in the preceding month. In Taiwan, GDP growth slowed down to 2.49% y-y in 2Q13, compared to the 1.62% y-y gain in 1Q13. Private spending rose by 1.69% y-y, compared to the 0.3% y-y gain in 1Q13. Investment slowed to 3.80% y-y, compared to the 6.31% y-y gain in 1Q13. Exports expand by 5.06% y-y, slightly faster than the 5.03% y-y pace in 1Q13. Despite the acceleration in 2Q13 GDP growth, the government cuts its 2013 whole year GDP growth forecast to 2.31%, as compared to earlier estimate of 2.4%. The central bank is holding its benchmark interest rate at 1.875% y-y, marking its longest period of inaction. In Hong Kong, GDP grew by 3.3% y-y in 2Q13, slightly faster than the 2.9% y-y gain in 1Q13. Household spending rose by 4.2% y-y, slower compared to the 6.3% y-y gain achieved in 1Q13. Government spending grew by 3.1% y-y, compared to the 2.1% y-y gain in 1Q13. Investment rose by 6.9% y-y, compared to the 3.3% y-y drop in 1Q13. Goods exports rose by 6.2% y-y, compared to the 8.8% y-y gain in 1Q13. Hong Kong government adjust its 2013 GDP growth forecast to 2.5-3.5%, from previous 1.5-3.5% range. Despite the well performing 2Q13 economic data, there is still downside risk from China's slowdown. Source: Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

4 of 14

Singapore The benchmark STI closed lower at 3,197.53 (-0.73%). The 3.3bn shares traded

were worth S$1.4bn in value. The STI may face continued pressure on the back of continued concerns over

potential tapering of QE. Our analysts guide for a potential near term selloff in stocks, as per our Morning note’s Market outlook.

We peg near-term support at 3,100, while downward pressure is expected to continue from current levels.

Top picks for the year are Pan United (Accumulate, TP: S$1.27), SGX (Buy, TP: S$8.30) & Keppel Cord (Accumulate, TP: S$12.25).

Close +/- % +/-

FSSTI 3197.53 -23.39 -0.73P/E (x) 13.16P/Bv (x) 1.41

3.25Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

8/21 11/21 2/21 5/21

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand Thai stocks ended the session down 7.31 points at 1,445.76 points last Fri,

breaking below a key level of 1,450 points in the absence of fresh positive triggers and amid external pressure from fears of a possible QE tapering in the US after the latest batch of upbeat macroeconomic data.

Short-term positive market drivers appear to be losing steam after second-quarter earnings season wound down last week while fears of US QE rollback came back to grip the market amid net foreign sell-off. Even if the scale of foreign selling remained small, the market seems to lack impetus to rebound.

At home, there also seems to be no strong fresh positive triggers in sight for the meantime. The second-quarter GDP data due to be released by the NESDB today will be the main economic event today. A Reuters poll of analysts expected Thailand’s economy in 2Q13 to grow by 0.2% q-q against a contraction of 2.2% q-q in 1Q13 and expand by 3.3% y-y against a rise of 5.3% y-y in 1Q13 as a result of slowing domestic demand and sagging exports against the backdrop of a global economic slowdown. Domestic political issues also still need to be closely watched, especially the controversial Bt2tn infrastructure loan bill tabled for debate in parliament this week.

Today we peg resistance for the SET index at 1460-1475 points and support at 1440-1420 points.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1445.76 -7.31 -0.50P/E (x) 15.94P/Bv (x) 2.30

3.01Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

8/20 11/20 2/20 5/20

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

Most Indonesian stocks fell Friday (16/08), amidst bearish tone in Asia as investors concerned that the US Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program as soon as September. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) plunged 116.475 points, or 2.49%, at 4,568.654. The steep decline on Friday included all but one major industry sectors, with finance sector fared worst, and mining sector performed best. Among the lagging sectors, finance sector slid 3.81%, miscellaneous industry fell 2.81%, and basic industry sector lost 2.65%. Blue-chip shares also fell, with the LQ45 index declined 22.468 points, or 2.88%, to 758.857. In economic news, Bank Indonesia cut the ceiling on the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of commercial banks to 92% and announced that it plans to increase the secondary minimum reserve requirement for Rupiah deposits to 4%. Separate report showed growth in sales of motorbikes in Indonesia fell fractionally to 21.3 percent in July from a year earlier despite higher fuel prices and interest rates. There were 702,423 motorbikes sold in the month, up 6.5 percent on a monthly basis. Decliners outran gainers 203 to 45 Friday on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, where 3.29 billion stocks worth IDR 4.43 trillion changed hands on the regular board. Foreign investors posted net sale of IDR 891.12 billion.

With sentiments turned negative amidst higher yields in US treasury, stock will have little support today. We expect the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) to decline moderately today, and move with minor support and resistance at 4,515 and 4,674.

Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 4568.65 -116.48 -2.49P/E (x) 18.77P/Bv (x) 2.70

2.18Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

3400

3900

4400

4900

5400

8/23 11/23 2/23 5/23

Source: Bloomberg

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

5 of 14

Sri Lanka The Colombo bourse ended the trading day on a positive note, adding further to

the gains recorded on the previous trading day. The ASPI extended gains for the fourth consecutive trading day by gathering 13.11 points or 0.21% to conclude at 6,233.21 and the benchmark index has gathered 103 points or 1.67% during these four trading days. However, the S&P SL20 closed within the negative terrain at 3,491.55, dropping 4.14 points or 0.12%; this was having gained 44.24 points or 1.28% on past three trading days. The daily aggregated turnover amounted to record 596.14Mn. Under the sectorial round-up, Diversified Holdings (DIV) sector topped the list providing LKR 267.92Mn. Beverage Food & Tobacco (BFT) sector also performed providing LKR 117.15Mn to the daily aggregate turnover. Shares totaling up to 27.16Mn changed hands during the day resulting in a gain of 11.64% compared to the previous trading day. Price gainers surpassed the price losers by 93:81. Foreign participants appeared to be bullish during the day for the 3

rd consecutive trading day resulting in a net foreign

inflow of LKR 31.05Mn; this was resulted by foreign buying of LKR 190.75Mn and selling of LKR 159.69Mn.

Close +/- % +/-CSEALL Index 6233.21 13.11 0.21P/E (x) 12.43P/Bv (x) 1.69

2.55

Dividend Yield

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

8/20 11/20 2/20 5/20

Source: Bloomberg

Australia The Australian share market on Friday finished weaker as profit taking hit the big

banks and resource companies. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was 38.5 points, or 0.75 per cent lower to 5,113.9 points.

Today (19/08/13), the Australian market looks set to open lower after US stocks closed on a negative note following a mixed batch of economic data and a big jump in bond yields.

In economic news on Monday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is due to release new motor vehicle sales for July.

In equities news, BlueScope Steel, Amcor, Aurizon, The Reject Shop, Federation Centres, Challenger Financial, Dexus Property Group, and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank are all expected to post full year results.

Close +/- % +/-

S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 5113.86 -38.51 -0.75P/E (x) 23.58P/Bv (x) 2.02

5.71

STANDARD & POORS/ ASX 200 INDEX

Dividend Yield

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

8/20 11/20 2/20 5/20

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong

HSI dropped 21 points or 0.1% to 22,517. CEI gained 13 points to 10,220. The trading volume was HKD67.879 billion.

Dragged by weak U.S. market, HSI opened low at 22,451 (-88) and went down to day low at 22,311 (-227), but it turned to gain in the morning due to an error buy order by Everbright Securities. For last week, HSI gained 710 points or 3.3%, CEI, outperformed HSI, climbed 621 points or 6.5%.

Sands China Ltd (1928.HK)’s share price is in up trend and broke record high recently, following interim results released with net profit surged 1.14 times,

Technically, next resistance and support will be at 22,800 and 22,238 respectively.

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 22517.81 -21.44 -0.10P/E (x) 10.48P/Bv (x) 1.43

3.34Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

8/20 11/20 2/20 5/20

Source: Bloomberg

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

6 of 14

Market News

US President Barack Obama will sit down with the leading US financial market regulators on Monday to discuss their progress in

implementing the 2010 Wall Street reform law, the White House said on Sunday. The Dodd-Frank law was passed by the then-Democratic-controlled Congress with Obama's support as a response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. It aims to prevent large, complex financial firms from imperiling markets should they collapse. It imposed new rules for over-the-counter derivatives, required banks to hold more capital, established a new federal agency charged with protecting consumers from predatory lending and laid out a series of reforms targeting numerous other financial firms, such as hedge funds and private equity funds. The White House said it expects the heads of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, US Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Federal Housing Finance Agency and the National Credit Union Administration to attend the meeting Monday afternoon. (Source: Business Times)

Foreign investors, who rapaciously scooped up US real estate during the 2007-2009 recession, are backing away from the same markets

they so eagerly jumped into a few years ago. Real estate brokers say demand from international investors has flagged in locations that have been most attractive to overseas buyers - markets such as San Francisco, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Miami. Many of those markets are back on solid footing after stumbling during the housing crisis. Property prices have risen, while the US dollar - against the Indian rupee in particular, and to a lesser extent the Canadian dollar - has appreciated over the past year, despite hitting a speed bump in recent weeks. As a result, real estate is no longer the bargain it once was for foreigners. That is discouraging new sales, while many foreigners who already own property - especially those who bought strictly as investment - are turning into sellers. (Source: Business Times)

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong yesterday mapped out moves in key areas of infrastructure, healthcare and education in what he

described as "acts of faith" in Singapore and its people. From freeing up 800 hectares of land in Paya Lebar for development to insuring citizens for life, Mr Lee used the most important political speech of the year to make the point that the government and community will do all it can to help Singaporeans navigate an uncertain future together. In new infrastructure developments for Singapore, the government will move the Paya Lebar Air Base to Changi, allowing 800 ha - larger than Bishan or Ang Mo Kio town - to be used for new homes, offices and factories. In addition to the 800 ha, exciting changes can also happen to a large area in eastern Singapore with the lifting of height restrictions. Turning to Changi Airport, Mr Lee unveiled Project Jewel: an iconic building that will replace an open-air car park at Terminal One. The structure will boast shops, restaurants and an indoor garden that will be major attractions for both Singaporeans and visitors. All three existing terminals will continue to be upgraded over time, while a fourth terminal is being built on the site of the old Budget Terminal. A fifth terminal, targeted to be ready by the mid-2020s, is expected to eventually double Changi Airport's current capacity, said Mr Lee. In response to the widespread concerns regarding healthcare, Mr Lee announced that MediShield - the national medical insurance plan - will be revamped to cover all Singaporeans for life. Renamed MediShield Life, it will no longer have an opt-out option and will include the elderly and those with pre-existing illnesses. But, because the benefits and coverage will be better, the premiums for MediShield Life will also be higher. Mr Lee said, however, that the government will subsidise these premiums for those who cannot afford them. On housing concerns, the prime minister went some way towards assuring Singaporeans that the government would both maintain the value of HDB flats over the years and keep them affordable for future homebuyers.As for the annual Primary One registration process that sends scores of parents into a tizzy every year, Mr Lee said that every primary school will, from 2014, set aside at least 40 places - about 10-15 per cent of total enrolment - for children with no prior links to the school. (Source: Business Times)

Thailand The Bank of Thailand said Thailand’s foreign reserves rose by US$900mn from the prior week to US$172.2bn as a result of normal

currency measures and improvement in major economies, which accelerated fund outflows from Thailand. (Source: Post Today) The Bank of Thailand said the impact of a possible QE tapering in the US on Thailand appears limited as the country’s economic

fundamentals are strong and the high level of foreign reserves could maintain confidence in the economy while current account is in slight deficit and private companies are cautious on overseas investments. (Source: Post Today)

The Bank of Thailand said it could monitor only debt in the financial system and could not collect data on loan sharks, adding that

Thailand could face the same fate as the US which was hit by household debt woes before the crisis emerged if household debt level hits 85% of the country’s GDP. (Source: Post Today)

Deputy PM Pongthep Thepkanchana said the government would press ahead with the Bt350bn water management projects and

reiterated that public hearings on the projects could likely be completed in three months before contracting signing with bid winners. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)

Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) will refine minimum mandatory account (“Giro Wajib Minimum/GWM”) compared to loan to deposit ratio (GWM-LDR)

by reducing LDR’s upper limit from 100 percent to 92 percent. With the new limit, banks are to be more prudent in disbursing loans amid decelerating economic growth. The upper limit amendment aims to set prudent credit disbursement and third-party funds (“DPK”) collection. BI will give three-month adaptation period for the GWM-LDR amendment. This change is also aimed to strengthen Indonesia’s financial system stability. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

7 of 14

A number of economists said Bank Indonesia should be aware of the downward trend in foreign exchange reserves. Decline in foreign

exchange reserves will still occur in line with the worsening of current account. Current account deficit is expected to cont inue due to structural causes and can not be fixed in the short term. The director of communications department of Bank Indonesia said the foreign exchange reserves at the end of July 2013 was USD 92.67 billion, equivalent to 5.2 months of imports and government foreign debt payments. This position still exceeded the international adequacy standards. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka's has leased land at Hambantota port in the south to industries which are expected to invest up to 1.6 bill ion US dollars in

petroleum, petrochemical and container terminals. Advance Surfacants of India Ltd will be leased land by Sri Lanka Ports Authority to set up a plant to produce aviation fuel and surfactants for 261 million US dollars. Energy World International ltd has been given the nod by the cabinet of ministers to lease land for a liquefied natural gas terminal and power production which may involve an investment of up to 1.35 billion US dollars. The LNG terminal will export to the region and supply compressed natural gas (CNG) for transport vehicles and ships. (Source: lankabusinessonline.com)

Sri Lanka will target mid-single digit inflation from next year from the current single digit. Sri Lanka's inflation rose 6.1 percent in the year

to June 2013 easing from 6.8 percent in July. That is between 4-6 percent a year. it is has maintained inflation in single digits for four and a half years, the longest since monetary and fiscal policy deteriorated in the late 1970s. Inflation spiked to near 10 percent earlier in 2013 following high credit growth and balance of payments trouble which sent the rupee reeling to 130 to the US dollar from 110 rupees. (Source: lankabusinessonline.com)

Australia Aurizon Holdings said annual profit rose as higher iron-ore exports from mines in Western Australia helped offset disruptions to coal

shipments in the east of the country. Australia's largest rail-freight operator said net profit rose to $447.0 million in the year through June, 1 per cent higher than a year earlier. The Brisbane-based company, which helps mining companies transport raw materials to ports, offered a final dividend of 8.2 cents--nearly double the size of last year's payout. Chief executive Lance Hockridge said the company would continue to reduce costs over the next two years and expected coal haulage volumes to increase 5 per cent this financial year. "Aurizon remains confident in sustained and long-term growth in the resources sector, though at more moderate levels," he said in a statement. Aurizon said it was starting to benefit from a restructuring of its operations that has seen the company make close to 1000 job cuts. (Source: The Australian)

Hong Kong The biggest earnings surprise by Chinese companies traded in New York since at least 2005 sparked the best weekly advance this year

for E-House (EJ) China Holdings Ltd. to Phoenix New Media Ltd. (FENG) Twenty-six of the 29 companies on the Bloomberg China-US Equity Index that have reported earnings since July 22 beat analysts’ estimates, the most since quarterly data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2005. The measure advanced 2.3 percent last week, led by E-House. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6 percent on Aug. 16 after the market’s shares were roiled by a trading error at Everbright Securities Co. that spurred a 53 percent surge in volumes. Sina Corp., provider of a Twitter-like service, climbed for a sixth week after reporting adjusted earnings that exceeded estimates by 75 percent and on prospects its partnership with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. will boost sales. Online travel agency Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP) surged 19 percent on Aug. 1 as second-quarter net income beat the mean forecast by 38 percent. E-House’s adjusted profit was more than double analysts’ projections. “We’ve seen some good results from these Chinese Internet names mostly, after the stocks had struggled through last year or so,” Derrick Irwin, a portfolio manager of the Wells Fargo Advantage Emerging Markets Equi ty Fund, who helps manage $10.9 billion of assets in Boston, said by phone Aug. 15. “Also we are also seeing signs of some degree of consolidation and some strategic re-positioning in the industry, which I think really helps the thesis.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

8 of 14

81.32 +0.08% 292.49 +0.01%

111.17 +1.40% 2.825 +0.06%

1,376.87 +0.01% 15,081.47 -0.20%

521.36 -0.43% MSCI SEA 851.57 -0.96%

2,854.27 +0.65% 54.1

Source: Bloomberg

MSCI Asia x-Japan

JPM Global Composite PMI SA

ThomReuters/JefferiesCRB

DJI

Crude oil, Brent (US$/bbl) US Treasury 10yr Yield

Euro Stoxx 50

Dollar Index

Gold (US$/Oz)

1.201.401.601.802.002.202.402.602.803.00

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

2,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,800

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

78

80

82

84

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-13

Apr-1

3

Ma

y-13

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

260

280

300

320

340

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-13

Apr-1

3

Ma

y-13

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

90

100

110

120

130

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-1

2

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Mar-1

3

Apr-1

3

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

9 of 14

Valuations of Major Regional Markets

14.7 1.41

14.0 2.30

10.7 1.43

15.2 2.70

14.7 2.02

Source: Bloomberg

Hang Seng Index, P/B (X)

S&P/ASX 200 Index, Forward P/E (X) S&P/ASX 200 Index, P/B (X)

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index, P/B (X)

Straits Times Index, Forward P/E (X)

Hang Seng Index, Forward P/E (X)

Straits Times Index, P/B (X)

Stock Exchange of Thailand, Forward P/E (X) Stock Exchange of Thailand, P/B (X)

Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index,

10

12

14

16

18

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

8

10

12

14

16

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

1.01.21.41.61.82.02.2

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

8

10

12

14

16

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

2.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.6

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

10

12

14

16

18

20

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

8

10

12

14

16

18

Dec-0

9

Ma

r-10

Ju

n-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Dec-1

0

Ma

r-11

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Dec-1

1

Ma

r-12

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Ju

n-1

3

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

10 of 14

Source: Bloomberg

World Index

JCI -2.49% 4,568.65

HSI -0.10% 22,517.81

KLCI -0.22% 1,788.24

NIKKEI -0.75% 13,650.11

KOSPI -0.20% 1,920.11

SET -0.50% 1,445.76

SHCOMP -0.64% 2,068.45

SENSEX -3.97% 18,598.18

ASX -0.75% 5,113.86

FTSE 100 0.26% 6,499.99

DOW -0.20% 15,081.47

S&P 500 -0.33% 1,655.83

NASDAQ -0.09% 3,602.78 COLOMBO 0.21% 6,233.21

STI -0.73% 3,197.53

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

11 of 14

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

8/20/2013 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jul -0.1 -0.13 8/21/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 41507 -- 7555600.00%

8/21/2013 MBA Mortgage Applications 16-Aug -- -0.047 8/21/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 41507 -- 7760000.00%

8/21/2013 Existing Home Sales Jul 5.15M 5.08M 8/21/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 41507 -- 7798900.00%

8/21/2013 Existing Home Sales MoM Jul 1.40% -1.20% 8/23/2013 CPI NSA MoM Jul 0.30% 0.20%

8/22/2013

Fed Releases Minutes from Jul 30-

31 FOMC Meeting 8/23/2013 CPI YoY Jul 2.10% 1.80%

8/22/2013 Initial Jobless Claims 41503 330K 320K 8/26/2013 Industrial Production SA MoM Jul -- -3.10%

8/22/2013 Continuing Claims 41496 2970K 2969K 8/26/2013 Industrial Production YoY Jul -- -0.059

8/22/2013 Markit US PMI Preliminary Aug 54.2 -- 8/30/2013 Credit Card Bad Debts Jul -- 21.1M

8/22/2013 House Price Index MoM Jun 0.006 0.007 8/30/2013 Credit Card Billings Jul -- 3475.9M

8/22/2013 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 2Q 0.024 0.0195 8/30/2013 Money Supply M1 YoY Jul -- 18.30%

8/22/2013 Bloomberg Economic Expectations Aug -- -5 8/30/2013 Money Supply M2 YoY Jul -- 9.10%

8/22/2013 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41504 -- -2660.00% 8/30/2013 Bank Loans and Advances YoY Jul -- 17.70%

8/22/2013 Leading Index Jul 0.50% 0.00% 9/3/2013 Electronics Sector Index Aug -- 5030.00%

8/22/2013 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Aug 600.00% 600.00% 9/3/2013 Purchasing Managers Index Aug -- 51.8

8/23/2013 New Home Sales Jul 487K 497K 9/4/2013 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 41521 -- --

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

8/19/2013 GDP SA QoQ 2Q 0.002 -0.022 8/19/2013 Unemployment Rate SA Jul 0.033 0.033

8/19/2013 GDP YoY 2Q 0.033 0.053 8/19/2013 Composite Interest Rate Jul -- 0.0032

8/21/2013 BoT Benchmark Interest Rate 21-Aug 0.025 0.025 8/20/2013 CPI Composite YoY Jul 0.046 0.041

8/23/2013 Foreign Reserves 16-Aug -- $172.2B 8/27/2013 Exports YoY Jul -- -0.002

8/23/2013 Forw ard Contracts 41502 -- $23.7B 8/27/2013 Imports YoY Jul -- 0.014

26-28 AUG Customs Exports YoY Jul -- -3.38% 8/27/2013 Trade Balance Jul -- -49.7B

26-28 AUG Customs Imports YoY Jul -- 3.01% 8/30/2013 Budget Balance HKD Jul -- -16.7B

26-28 AUG Customs Trade Balance Jul -- -$1915M 8/30/2013 Money Supply M1 HKD YoY Jul -- 0.181

8/28/2013 Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA Jul -- -3.5 8/30/2013 Money Supply M2 HKD YoY Jul -- 0.096

8/28/2013 Mfg Production Index ISIC SA Jul -- 175.7 8/30/2013 Money Supply M3 HKD YoY Jul -- 0.097

8/28/2013 Capacity Utilization ISIC Jul -- 6410.00% 9/2/2013 Retail Sales Value YoY Jul -- 0.147

8/30/2013

Bloomberg Aug. Thailand

Economic Survey 9/2/2013 Retail Sales Volume YoY Jul -- 0.134

8/30/2013 Foreign Reserves 41509 -- -- 9/4/2013 HSBC/Markit PMI Aug -- 49.7

8/30/2013 Forw ard Contracts 41509 -- -- 9/6/2013 Foreign Reserves Aug -- $299.9B

8/30/2013 Exports YoY Jul -- -0.035 11-16 SEP Manpow er Survey 4Q -- 0.14

Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand Hong Kong

Source: Bloomberg

US Singapore

Economic Announcement

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Regional Market Focus

19 August 2013

12 of 14

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

16-20 AUG Local Auto Sales Jul -- 104265 16-28 AUG Exports YoY Jun -- -1.50%

16-20 AUG Motorcycle Sales Jul -- 659504 16-28 AUG Imports YoY Jun -- -1.70%

41516

Bloomberg Aug. Indonesia

Economic Survey 8/30/2013 CPI Moving Average YoY Aug -- 8.30%

9/2/2013 HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Aug -- 5070.00% 8/30/2013 CPI YoY Aug -- 6.10%

9/2/2013 CPI YoY Aug -- 8.61% 05-28 SEP Exports YoY Jul -- --

9/2/2013 CPI NSA MoM Aug -- 3.29% 05-28 SEP Imports YoY Jul -- --

9/2/2013 CPI Core YoY Aug -- 0.0444 16-30 SEP GDP YoY 2Q -- 0.06

9/2/2013 Exports YoY Jul -- -0.045 9/17/2013 CBSL Repurchase Rate 41534 -- 0.07

41519 Imports YoY Jul -- -6.80% 9/17/2013 CBSL Reverse Repo Rate 41534 -- 9.00%

41519 Trade Balance Jul -- -$847M 9/30/2013 CPI Moving Average YoY Sep -- --

02-05 SEP Danareksa Consumer Confidence Aug -- 82 9/30/2013 CPI YoY Sep -- --

02-10 SEP Consumer Confidence Index Aug -- 108.4 07-28 OCT Exports YoY Aug -- --

02-10 SEP Money Supply M1 YoY Jul -- 0.102 07-28 OCT Imports YoY Aug -- --

02-10 SEP Money Supply M2 YoY Aug -- 0.119 10/15/2013 CBSL Repurchase Rate 41562 -- --

03-09 SEP Foreign Reserves Aug -- $92.67B 10/15/2013 CBSL Reverse Repo Rate 41562 -- --

Date Statistic For Survey Prior

8/19/2013 New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM Jul -- 4.00%

8/19/2013 New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY Jul -- 0.071

8/20/2013

RBA Policy Meeting - August

Minutes

8/21/2013 Westpac Leading Index MoM Jun -- 0.002

8/21/2013 DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM Jul -- -0.018

8/22/2013 Conference Board Leading Index Jun -- 0

8/28/2013 CBA/HIA House Affordability 2Q -- 6970.00%

8/28/2013 Construction Work Done 2Q -- -2.00%

8/29/2013 HIA New Home Sales MoM Jul -- 0.034

8/29/2013 Private Capital Expenditure 2Q -- -4.70%

8/30/2013 Private Sector Credit MoM Jul -- 0.40%

8/30/2013 Private Sector Credit YoY Jul -- 3.10%

9/2/2013 AiG Perf of Mfg Index Aug -- 42

9/2/2013 RPData/Rismark House Px MoM Aug -- --

9/2/2013 TD Securities Inflation MoM Aug -- 0.50%

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

Australia

Sri Lanka

Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg

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PHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOPHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMSCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation

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Disclosure of InterestDisclosure of InterestDisclosure of InterestDisclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed

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Total ReturnTotal ReturnTotal ReturnTotal Return RecommendationRecommendationRecommendationRecommendation RatingRatingRatingRating RemarksRemarksRemarksRemarks >+20%>+20%>+20%>+20% BuyBuyBuyBuy 1111 >20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price>20% upside from the current price

+5% to +20%+5% to +20%+5% to +20%+5% to +20% AccumulateAccumulateAccumulateAccumulate 2222 +5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the curren+5% to +20%upside from the current pricet pricet pricet price ----5% to +5%5% to +5%5% to +5%5% to +5% NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral 3333 Trade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current priceTrade within ± 5% from the current price ----5% to 5% to 5% to 5% to ----20%20%20%20% ReduceReduceReduceReduce 4444 ----5% to 5% to 5% to 5% to ----20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price20% downside from the current price

<<<<----20%20%20%20% SellSellSellSell 5555 >20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price>20%downside from the current price

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