Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12

7/31/2019 Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12

1/34

1 EdelweissSecuritiesLimited

MS Grow thMS

Ga i n / Loss

Top 5 23.3 14.7 (0.0)

Top 5-10 15.6 20.8 0.8

Top 10-25 26.6 18.2 0.7

Top 25-50 17.5 15.2 0.0

IPM 100.0 14.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jun

10

Aug

10

Oct10

Dec

10

Feb

11

Apr11

Jun

11

Yo

Y(%)

(10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0

CIPLADRRD

GLEN

GSK

ABOTT

TRP

RBXY

IPCA

LPC

PFIZ

CDH

AVEN

SUNP

The

domestic

pharma

market

has

delivered

strong

growth

of

16%

during

FY12, despite weakness in H1FY12 due to erratic/delayed monsoon. In

fact,growthwasthehighest inpastthreeyearsand inlinewithouron

groundsurveyfindingswherewearguedhigher traction inthedomestic

market going forward. Chronic segment continues to outpace industry

growth (21% for FY12), while acute segment growth was steady at 14

15%. InFY12,companies likeSunPharma,Pfizer,Aventis,andGlenmark

have significantly outpaced market growth, while Dr. Reddy's and

Unichemwerelaggards.

KeytakeawaysfromtrendsduringMarch:

IPMendsonastrongnotewith21.9%growthforMarch,thehighestoverpast18months.

Growth buildup over past two months is led by acute segments such as antiinfectives,gastroandmultivitaminswhichhavebeendepictingstrongtraction.

Chronicsegmentcontinuedtoremainonafirmtrajectory(26%growthinMarch).Diabetes continues to witness strong growth momentum, driven by higher

prevalenceandimprovedcontributionfromhighervaluenewproducts.

The MNC pack has been outdoing its Indian peers and outperformed relative toindustry(GSK24%,Pfizer19%,Novartis22%,Aventis20%).

PriceincreasehasbeenthekeygrowthdriverforPfizerandGlenmark. Cipla is improving consistently and gaining market share. Other highlights are

positiveturnaround

of

Cadila

and

improvement

in

Unichem.

Ranbaxyhaspositivelysurprisedwith19%growthvs56%overpasttwomonths. Freebies as % of sales have been coming down consistently, which highlights

industrysfocusonprescriptiongeneration.

Outperformers: Glenmark, SunPharma,IPCA,andGSK.

ManojGarg

+912266233302

[email protected]

PerinAli

+912266203032

[email protected]

April20,2012

EdelweissResearchisalsoavailableonwww.edelresearch.com,

BloombergEDEL,ThomsonFirstCall,ReutersandFactset. EdelweissSecuritiesLimited

PHARMACEUTICALSDomesticPharmaMonthlyReview

MONTHLYUPDATE

IndiaEquityResearch|Pharmaceuticals

MonthlyPharma

growth

trend

(Y

o

Y)

Relative

Performance

to

IPM

(%)

GrowthProfile(MAT12) %

Note:A)AlldataandanalysisinthisreportarebasedondatafromAIOCDB)AIOCDnumbershavebeenrevisedforpreviousmonths

Domesticmarketgrowthtrend(MAT)%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Mar11

May

11

Jul11

Sep

11

Nov

11

Jan

12

Mar12

Yo

Y(%)

Currentyear Previousyear

(2 0. 0) (1 0. 0) 0 .0 10.0 20.0

DRRD

LPC

ABOTT

TRP

CIPLA

CDH

PFIZ

RBXY

AVEN

GSK

IPCA

SUNP

GLEN

16.0

13.114.2

16.0

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

14.9 14.9 14.1 14.6

19.1 19.217.4

20.5

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

A cute Chr onic

MS GrowthMS

Gain/LossTop5 22.8 16.2 0.0

Top610 15.6 19.7 0.5

Top1125 27.1 16.8 0.2

Top2650 16.6 17.0 0.1

IPM 100.0 16.0


2/34


Pharmaceuticals

PerformanceSnapshot

Companywiseperformance (INRmn)

Source:AIOCD,Edelweissresearch

Therapywiseperformance (INRmn)

Source:Edelweissresearch

Company MS Mar2012 Mar2011 YoY Feb2012 MoM Feb12 Jan12 Dec11

Abbott 5.8

3,002

2,655

13.1

2,954

1.6

20.0

13.9

13.4

15.6

16.8Cipla 4.9 2,533 2,158 17.4 2,539 (0.2) 17.5 17.5 13.6 17.5 13.3

Ranbaxy 4.3 2,216 1,862 19.0 2,047 8.3 7.9 6.8 10.1 11.1 13.0

GSK 4.8 2,495 2,004 24.5 2,335 6.9 24.0 17.2 14.8 21.9 15.6

SunPharma 4.9 2,516 1,989 26.5 2,420 4.0 27.8 23.7 27.5 25.9 24.3

Cadila 3.9 2,009 1,700 18.2 1,929 4.1 20.0 15.9 8.5 18.0 14.0

Mankind 3.0 1,561 1,176 32.7 1,418 10.0 27.5 19.0 15.5 26.5 17.5

Lupin 2.9 1,487 1,334 11.5 1,536 (3.2) 17.6 14.1 15.1 14.4 17.4

Intas 2.4 1,228 1,060 15.8 1,227 0.1 17.6 20.8 14.8 18.0 15.5

Pfizer 2.3 1,174 991 18.4 1,210 (3.0) 20.2 22.1 27.9 20.2 24.3

DrReddy's 2.1 1,095 992 10.4 1,057 3.6 11.5 8.6 11.0 10.1 8.0

Aventis 2.2 1,139 953 19.5 1,126 1.2 23.9 22.6 20.1 21.9 22.0

Glenmark 1.9 1,005 734 36.9 999 0.6 32.2 30.3 35.3 33.1 22.1

IPCA 1.6

848

670

26.5

797

6.4

21.9

20.5

21.6

22.9

18.5Torrent 1.5 772 660 16.9 749 3.0 15.5 10.2 11.0 14.1 12.0

Unichem 1.1 548 500 9.6 537 2.0 4.8 7.1 0.0 7.2 2.5

IPM 100.0 51,671 42,445 21.7 49,668 4.0 18.5 16.9 15.8 19.1 15.9

MATMar

2012

Q4

FY12

Monthlyperformance

Therapeuticarea Mar2012 Mar2011 YoY(%) Feb2012 MoM(%) Feb12 Jan12 Dec11

AntiInfectives 17.3 9,309 7,868 18.3 8,945 4.1 14.2 11.5 11.9 14.6 11.1

CVS 12.3 6,597 5,308 24.3 6,379 3.4 22.2 20.3 18.2 22.2 20.7

Gastro 11.3 6,066 5,056 20.0 5,641 7.5 16.6 15.4 16.0 17.3 13.3

Multivitamins 8.9 4,793 3,802 26.1 4,518 6.1 22.0 20.3 19.8 22.8 19.6

PainManagement 7.2 3,881 3,224 20.4 3,707 4.7 13.0 13.6 12.4 15.7 14.0

Respiratory 7.8 4,207 3,587 17.3 4,443 (5.3) 17.2 12.0 14.5 15.3 14.2

Gyneacology 5.7 3,036 2,662 14.0 2,980 1.9 16.7 16.4 16.9 15.7 14.7

Diabetics 7.1 3,827 2,781 37.6 3,636 5.2 37.9 34.9 28.6 36.8 28.7

CNS 6.1 3,269 2,715 20.4 3,197 2.3 18.2 14.5 14.3 17.7 15.0

Dermatology 5.2 2,811 2,232 25.9 2,707 3.8 23.5 20.5 18.7 23.3 18.1

AntiMalaria 0.6 345 289 19.4 290 18.9 12.3 3.1 5.8 11.5 9.4

Urology 1.4 769 588 30.6 727 5.7 27.3 23.2 11.3 27.0 18.9

Oncology 0.9 476 462 3.1 419 13.6 (16.1) 22.6 2.3 1.7 26.2

Opthalmology 1.7 936 766 22.1 852 9.8 19.3 19.6 17.0 20.4 12.8

Others 0.8 430 348 23.8 404 6.5 17.7 17.3 14.9 19.6 14.8

IPM 100.0 53,688 44,051 21.9 51,632 4.0 18.6 16.9 15.9 19.1 16.0

Salience

(%)

MATMar

2012

Q4FY

2012

Monthlyperformance


3/34


MonthlyUpdate

IndustryPerformanceReview


4/34


Pharmaceuticals

Relativeperformanceofkeyplayers(March)

Relativeperformanceofkeyplayers(MAT12)

Marketsharegain/loss(March)

22

17

19

2426

18

11

18

10

37

26

17

10

0.0

8.0

16.0

24.0

32.0

40.0

IPM

Cipla

Ranbaxy

GSK

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

Glenmark

IPCA

Torrent

Unichem

Growth(Y

o

Y%)

1613 13

16

24

14

17

24

8

22

18

12

2

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

Ranbaxy

GSK

Sun

Pharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

Dr

Reddy's

Glenmark

IPCA

Torrent

U

nichem

Growth(Y

o

Y%)

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

Abbott

Cipla

Ranbaxy

GSK

SunPharma

Cadila

Mankind

Pfizer

Lupin

Intas

DrReddy's

Aventis

Glenmark

IPCA

Torrent

Unichem

(%)

Growthcontribution Marketshare

Glenmarkoutshines;Lupinand

Dr.Reddyskeyunderperformers

MNCcounterpartssuchasPfizer

andGSKhavebeenoutdoing

Indianpeersandmarket

consistently

Unichemhasunderperformed

market,butoverallgrowth

tractionbetter

GSK,SunPharma,Mankind,and

Glenmarkhavegainedmarket

share,whereasAbbott,Dr.

ReddysandLupinhavelostit

DuringFY12,companieslikeSun

Pharma,Pfizer,andGlenmark

havesignificantlyoutpaced

marketgrowth,whileDr.Reddys

andUnichemwerelaggards


5/34


MonthlyUpdate

Growthwithandwithoutbonusoffers orfreeunits(March)

Bonustrendamongkeyplayers

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

0.0

8.0

16.0

24.0

32.0

40.0

IPM

Cipla

Ranbaxy

GSK

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

Glenmark

IPCA

Torrent

(%of

sales)

(GrowthY

o

Y%)

+bonusunits bonusunits Bonusas%ofsales

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

Jan11 Mar

1 1 May

11 Jul

11 Sep

11 Nov

11 Jan

12 Mar

12

(%oftotalsales)

Cipla Ranbaxy Cadila IPCA

Freebiesas%ofsaleshavebeen

comingdownconsistentlywhich

highlightsindustrysfocuson

prescriptiongeneration


6/34


Pharmaceuticals

Acuteandchroniccontributiontosales

Growthinacuteandchronicsegments(March)

Growthinacuteandchronicsegments(MAT12)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Unichem

Intas

Torrent

SunPharma

Aventis

Lupin

Cipla

GSK

Glenmark

IPCA

DrReddy's

Cadila

Ranbaxy

Chronic Acute

2014

18 23 23

17

8

15 20

12 10

29 30

11 7

26

2226

12

29

2115 17

188

30

62

1821

12

0.0

16.0

32.0

48.0

64.0

80.0

IPM

Cipla

Ranbaxy

GSK

Sun

Pharma

Cadila

Lupin

Intas

Pfizer

Dr

Reddy's

Aventis

G

lenmark

IPCA

Torrent

Unichem

(Yo

Y,%

)

Acute Chronic

15 11

13

23 25

14 16 11

25

7

14 16

20

9

3

21

1814 12

24

14

19 19

27

13

32

45

14 15

2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

IPM

Cipla

Ranbaxy

GSK

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Intas

Pfizer

DrReddy's

Aventis

Glenmark

IPCA

Torrent

Unichem

(Yo

Y,%

)

Acute Chronic

Keyacute

players

such

as

GSK,

Pfizer,Ranbaxy,Cadila,andIPCA

depictdoubledigitgrowthwithin

acutesegment

Chronicgrowthremainsstrongat

1830%acrosscoverageuniverse;

Glenmarkhasgrownexceptionally

wellat62%

Chronicsegmentcontinuesto

outpaceindustrygrowth(21%for

FY12),whileacutesegment

growthwassteadyat1415%


7/34


MonthlyUpdate

GrowthdriversVolume,newproducts,price(MAT)

Therapywise

(7.0)

0.0

7.0

14.0

21.0

28.0

IPM

Cipla

Ranbaxy

GSK

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

Glenmark

IPCA

Torrent

Unichem

(Growth%)

Volume Price NewIntroductions

712

7 5 7 6

19

83

(1)

6

2 7 3 3

5

4

3

5

3

4

84 5

5

4

3

(8.0)

0.0

8.0

16.0

24.0

32.0

Anti

Infectives

CVS

Gastro

M

ultivitamins

Respiratory

PainMgmt

Diabetics

CNS

Anti

Malaria

(%)

Volume Price NewIntroductions

LupinandTorrenthaveseen

pricing

pressure

in

portfolio

while

PfizerandGlenmarkdepict

disproportionateincreasein

prices(11%versusaverage23%

forindustry)

Antiinfectivesistheonlysegment

whichdepictspricingpressure

duetoincreaseincompetitive

intensity

Multivitamins,diabetesandCVS

havehighercontributionfrom

newlaunches


8/34


Pharmaceuticals

Pe r f o r m a n ce w i t h i n k e y t h e r ap e u t i c s eg m e n t s ( g r o w t h t r e n d % )

Antiinfectives Gastrointestinal

Cardiovascular Respiratory

Antidiabetics CNS


Rank Company Mar Feb Jan

1 Alkem 16.8 23.9 25.1

2 GSK 30.1

23.1

20.9

3 Ranbaxy 14.0 11.9 (3.9)

4 Cipla 12.4 8.4 7.5

5 Aristo 10.2 12.6 16.0

6 Macleods 33.2 36.3 37.9

7 Mankind 23.0 15.9 7.5

8 Lupin 1.6 8.9 6.4

9 Abbott 9.2 8.1 5.4

10 FDC 5.9 9.8 (3.4)

AntiInfectives 18.3 14.8 11.0

Rank Company

Mar Feb Jan1 SunPharma 31.1 31.3 25.8

2 ZydusCadila 28.3 25.2 20.1

3 Lupin 16.2 22.0 12.7

4 Cipla 15.6 16.3 17.2

5 Abbott 20.3 18.4 19.2

6 SanofiAventis 13.2 27.3 20.9

7 Ranbaxy 34.6 17.4 0.9

8 Torrent 26.9 25.9 28.2

9 Intas 8.6 19.7 14.1

10 Unichem 14.9 4.3 6.2

CVS 24.3 21.9 19.3


1 NovoNordisk 49.2 54.1 49.8

2 USV 32.4 30.4 27.2


4 SunPharma 43.2 46.1 34.6

5 Merck 69.2 109.4 63.1

6 Abbott 24.5 31.7 25.9

7 EliLilly 2.7 (6.3) (2.7)

8 Lupin 20.9 29.4 23.3

9 MicroLabs 47.7 33.9 39.7

10 Novartis 66.7 57.9 54.7

AntiDiabetics 37.6 35.3 31.8


1 ZydusCadila 11.3 21.6 15.9

2 SunPharma 32.1

32.7

32.7

3 Alkem 40.1 36.5 29.4

4 DrReddy's 16.2 14.3 10.9

5 Aristo 20.7 25.5 25.4

6 Cipla 24.2 19.8 25.1

7 Mankind 22.4 18.5 12.2

8 Cadilapharma 29.9 30.6 7.1

9 Abbott 11.0 10.8 10.8

10 Solvay 0.9 (2.5) NA

Gastro 20.0 16.2 14.8

Rank Company

Mar Feb Jan1 Cipla 23.6 24.4 21.5

2 Pfizer 11.7 22.3 18.3

3 Abbott (11.3) 46.4 1.7

4 ZydusCadila 23.7 8.8 7.2

5 Lupin 7.7 12.0 8.4

6 GSK 3.6 1.7 0.9

7 Glenmark 8.0 8.9 2.6

8 Centaur 37.3 36.5 31.5

9 Wockhardt 23.8 27.7 15.7


Respiratory 17.3 16.3 11.4


1 SunPharma 23.7 24.8 18.6

2 Intas 22.8 33.5 28.7

3 Abbott 21.8 21.4 15.8

4 Torrent 16.8 18.4 7.6

5 AbbottIndia 20.2 35.9 22.7


7 MicroLabs 64.5 50.0 50.6

8 Wockhardt 12.3 15.7 8.8

9 Lupin 16.0 5.0 4.9

10 Unichem (2.4) 5.0 5.4

CNS 20.4 18.7 14.7


9/34


MonthlyUpdate

CompanyWisePerformanceReview


10/34


Pharmaceuticals

Aventis(AVENIN,INR2312,NotRated)

Perfromancerelativetoindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance

Revenuemix Therapywisebreakup


0.0

7.6

15.2

22.8

30.4

38.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Companygrowth Industrygrowth

12 12 11

25

28

2123 22 22

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q1CY11

Q2CY11

Q3CY11

Q4CY11

Q1CY12E

(%)

Reportedgrowth AIOCDgrowth

Domestic

sales80%

Exports

20%

SanofiAventis'chronicfocuscontinuestoshowstrongtraction.Whileprimarygrowthhasbeenlagging,lastquarterreportedgrowtho

24%isinsyncwithsecondarytrendandwewouldkeenlywatchthisdatagoingforward.Growthinchronictherapiessuchasdiabetesan

CNS is almost 2x the industry. Similarly, in the acute segment, the company is doing well with its antiinfective and gastro. Sanofi

buildingupon astrongpresence invaccineswheregrowthduring thecurrent fiscalhasbeen57%.We believeAventis is thebestpla

amongMNCs

due

to

its

consistent

performance,

strong

focus

and

better

therapeutic

profile.

CVS

26%

Diabetics

24%CNS

10%

Painmgmt.

12%

Respiratory

9.5%

Anti

Infectives

6%

Vaccines

6%

Gastro

intestinal

4%

Dermatology

3%

Chronic

59%

Note:Q1CY12representedelweissestimates


11/34


MonthlyUpdate

GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers(MAT)

Therapeuticgrowth

versus

industry

(MAT)

Top

10

brand

performance

(MAT)

Closingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)


18

8

3

4

2

3

0.0

5.4

10.8

16.2

21.6

27.0

SanofiAventis Industry

(%)

Volume Newproducts Price

22%

16%

Therapeuticarea

%of

total

Market

share

Aventis

growth

Industry

Growth

Cont.to

growth

CVS 25.3 4.1 22.6 20.7 25.8

Diabetics 23.5 7.6 46.8 28.7 41.3

Painmgmt. 11.7 3.3 (4.0) 14.0 (2.7)

CNS 9.8 3.4 22.8 15.0 10.1

Respiratory 9.4 2.5 6.0 14.2 2.9

AntiInfectives 6.5 0.8 20.2 11.1 6.0

Vaccines 5.6 9.1 57.8 10.7 11.4

Gastrointestinal 4.0 0.7 22.3 13.3 4.0

Dermatology 2.8 1.1 13.0 18.1 1.8

Chroniccont. 58.7

77.2

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

24.0

28.0

10

13

16

19

22

25

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)

Secondarygrowth(RHS)

Closingstock(PreviousYear)

Closingstock(CurrentYear)

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate

Contrbutionto

growth

Combiflam Acute 8.2 45.7 16.6 6.4

Cardace Chronic 8.1 47.6 (4.2) (2.0)

Clexane Chronic 5.8 26.6 30.5 7.4

Amaryl Chronic 5.7 29.9 28.8 7.0

Allegra Acute 5.6 82.9 27.2 6.6

Lantus Chronic 4.7 89.6 55.9 9.2

Avil Acute 3.7 31.5 85.1 9.3

Targocid Acute 3.5 55.1 22.9 3.6

Frisium Chronic 3.4 94.5 (16.1) (3.6)

Valparin Chronic 3.3 52.1 16.1 2.5

Total 52.0 19.4 46.6

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

Aventis

(Growth%)


12/34


Pharmaceuticals

Cadila(CDHIN,INR725,HOLD)




0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


India

formulatio

ns

38%

India

consumer

7%

Export

formulatio

ns

38%

APIs

8%

JVs

6%

Others

3%

Cadila has closed the year on a strong note despite higher base of previous year (18% during JanMarch from 1012% growth ove

9MFY12). The Uturn in growth is also reflected in its Q3 performance. While secondary traction remains strong, the primary growt

duringcurrentquartercouldbeimpactedfromsharpincreaseininventoryoverJanMar11.

Note:TheanalysisdoesnotincludeBiochemportfolio23

97

18

7

21

19

10 10

18

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12E

(%)


CVS20%

Neurologicals

18%

Antidiabetic

4%Gastro

3%

Gyneacology

13%

Respiratory

3%

Pain

management

10%

Anti

infectives

8%

Dermatology

7%

Others14%

Chronic

43%

Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimates


13/34


MonthlyUpdate


Therapeuticgrowthvsindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)

Closingstockanslysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)


68

53

34

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

Cadila Industry

(%)


14%16%

Therapeuticarea%oftotal

Marketshare

Cadilagrowth

Industry

Growth

Contrbutiontogrowth

CVS 20 5.9 17.6 20.7 24.3

Gastro 18 6.2 12.9 13.3 16.9

Gyneacology 13 8.9 4.8 14.7 4.9

Respiratory 10 4.8 10.7 14.2 7.6

Painmanagement 8 4.1 22.6 14.0 12.1

Antiinfectives 7 1.5 18.8 11.1 8.8

Neurologicals 3 1.7 5.4 15.0 1.1

Dermatology 3 2.2 54.0 18.1 8.6

Antidiabetic 1 0.5 (5.9) 28.7 (0.5)

Chroniccont. 23.7

25.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

10

14

17

21

24

28

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)




3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy %oftotal Marketshare Growthrate ContrbutiontogrowthAten Chronic 3.8 59.6 2.6 0.8

Atorva Chronic 3.4 12.2 24.8 5.5

Deriphyllin Acute 3.3 90.6 13.1 3.1

Pantodac Acute 3.2 15.6 26.9 5.5

Falcigo Acute 3.1 52.1 16.4 3.5

MifegestKit Acute 2.7 17.3 22.4 3.9

Ocid Acute 2.4 26.9 (1.9) (0.4)

PrimolutN Acute 2.0 45.1 4.8 0.7

Dexona Acute 2.0 49.5 12.8 1.8

Amlodac Chronic 2.0 15.6 21.9 2.8

Total 27.8 13.8 27.2

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

(Growth%)


14/34


Pharmaceuticals

Cipla(CIPLAIN,INR321,HOLD)




0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


15

10

12

18

16

1211 10

14

17

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12E

(%)


Domestic

formulatio

ns

46%

ROW

43%

APIs

11%

Ciplahasconsistently tracked industrygrowth. Ithas,however, lostmarketshare this fiscaldue toaggressivecompetitionfrompeer

Freebiesas%ofsaleshavecomedownfrom12%to9%, indicatingthemanagementsfocusto improveprescriptionpromotionamon

maturebrands.Closingstockasa%ofsaleshasbeenstable,highlightinggreaterfocusonprescriptiongeneration.Overall,thecompan

has delivered well inkey focus therapy such asrespiratory, while chronic portfoliohas depicted strong trend. Antiinfectives and pa

managementhave

lagged

industry

and

peers.

Respiratory

29%

CVS

12%

CNS

2%Anti

diabetics

1%

Dermatolog

y

1.6%

Gyneacolog

y

9%

Gastro

intestinal

8%

Anti

Infectives&

painmgmt.

27%

Others

10%



15/34


MonthlyUpdate


Therapeuticgrowthversusindustry(MAT) Top10brandperformance(MAT)



9 8

1 4

3

3

0.0

3.6

7.2

10.8

14.4

18.0

Cipla Industry

(%)


13%

16%

Therapeuticarea%

of

total

Market

share

Cipla

growth

Industry

Growth

Cont.to

growth

Respiratory 29 19.4 17.8 14.2 37.4

Antiinfectives 24 7.0 6.7 11.1 13.0

CVS 12 4.9 15.9 20.7 10.7

Gyneacology 9 8.4 15.8 14.7 14.2

Gastrointestinal 8 3.6 13.3 13.3 7.9

Painmgmt. 3 1.8 10.3 14.0 2.1

CNS 2 2.1 14.1 15.0 2.5

Dermatology 2 1.6 12.8 18.1 1.5

Anti diabetics 1 0.6 30.2 28.7 1.5

Chroniccont. 44 52.2

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

10

14

17

21

24

28

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

nFeb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)




4.8

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.0

5.1

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate

Contrbution

togrowth

Asthalin Chronic 4.7 87.1 13.1 4.6

MtpKit Acute 3.7 32.8 29.4 7.2

Seroflo Chronic 3.7 62.1 10.9 3.1

Foracort Chronic 3.4 53.2 26.2 6.0

Novamox Acute 3.0 35.8 9.5 2.3

Aerocort Chronic 2.7 100.0 12.5 2.6

MtPill Acute 2.4 43.8 (5.7) (1.2)

Budecort Chronic 2.3 73.8 19.3 3.1

Ciplox Acute 2.0 27.8 0.3 0.1

Mtprost Acute 1.7 15.1 24.1 2.8

Total 29.6 13.8 30.5

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

(Grow

th%)


16/34


Pharmaceuticals

Dr.ReddysLaboratories(DRRDIN,INR1,797,HOLD)

Perfromancerelativetotheindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance



0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


Domestic

formulations

16%

ROW

19%

US

26%

EU

4%

Germany

(Betaphar

m)

7%

Biotech

1%

APIs

27%

Dr. Reddys relative performance to market has been dismal with lower growth in both acute and chronic segments. Most of the

segments, except respiratory and dermatology, have underperformed the market. Top 10 brands, which present 3540% of total

portfolio,havedepictedmutedgrowth(4.5%)weighingonoverallgrowthofbusiness.NISEandOMEZ,amongotherTop10brands,have

massivelyunderperformed.Onthesupplychainside,Dr.Reddys isamongstthebest,withstrong inventorymanagementsystemsas

reflectedin

consistent

closing

stock

days

and

lesser

overstocking

at

distributors

end.


10

6

10

1110

11

8

5

910

0.0

2.6

5.2

7.8

10.4

13.0

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12E

(%)


CV

21%

CNS

1%

Anti

diabetics

6%

Respiratory

5%

Dermatology

5%Gastro

24%

Painmgmt.

13%

Anti

infectives

10%

Urology4%

Others11%

Chronic

34%


17/34


MonthlyUpdate





4

83

4

2

3

(2.0)

2.0

6.0

10.0

14.0

18.0

DrReddy's Industry

(%)


8%

16%


Marketshare

DrReddy'sgrowth

Industry

Growth

Cont.togrowth

Gastro 25 4.4 9.3 13.3 27.3

CV 21 3.3 12.0 20.7 29.5

Painmgmt. 10 2.7 (11.0) 14.0 (16.1)

Antiinfectives 9 1.0 (3.9) 11.1 (4.5)

Vitamins 4 1.0 3.8 19.6 7.0

Antidiabetics 6 2.0 15.3 28.7 7.0

Respiratory 6 1.5 14.5 14.2 11.1

Dermatology 7 2.7 38.1 18.1 9.6

Urology 4 6.2 14.5 18.9 2.1


0.0

2.8

5.6

8.4

11.2

14.0

10

12

14

16

18

20

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)




2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy%oftotal

Marketshare

Growthrate

Contrbutiontogrowth

Omez Acute 8.9 53.6 (2.6) (3.2)

Stamlo Chronic 4.7 19.9 11.2 6.3

Nise Acute 4.6 47.5 (27.9) (23.0)

OmezD Acute 3.6 29.4 21.3 8.3

StamloBeta Chronic 3.2 12.7 9.9 3.8

Atocor Chronic 2.9 5.5 11.3 3.9

Razo Acute 2.8 14.3 11.1 3.7

Mintop Acute 2.8 50.9 38.7 10.1

Econorm Acute 2.4 13.2 25.8 6.4

RazoD Acute 2.2 8.8 23.9 5.6

Total 38.2 4.6 22.0

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

(Growth%)


18/34


Pharmaceuticals

GlenmarkPharma(GNPIN,INR319,BUY)




0.0

8.0

16.0

24.0

32.0

40.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


(14)

20 20

111618

13 13

2933

(28.0)

(14.0)

0.0

14.0

28.0

42.0

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12E

(%)


India

30%

ROW

14%

Latin

America

7%

Europe

5%

US

29%

API

12%

Argentiana

1%

Europe

2%

WhileGlenmarkhasbeenoutpacing the industry in itskey focussegmentssuchasdermatologyandCVS,price increasesaredriving

largepartofgrowth(11%contribution).InCVS,Glenmarkisgrowingalmost2xindustrygrowth,aidedbythestrongperformanceofth

Telmesartangroup.Thecompanyhasbeenconsistentlygainingmarketshareinantiinfectivesandrespiratoryaswell.

CV21%

Anti

Diabetics

5%

CNS

1%

Dermatolo

gy

31%

Respirator

y

14%

Anti

infectives

15%

Pain

mgmt.

5%

Gastro

Intestinal

2%

Gyneacolo

gy

2%

Others

4%Chronic

26%



19/34


MonthlyUpdate





3

8

8

4

12

3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Glenmark Industry

(%)

Volume New products Price

22%

16%


Marketshare

Glenmarkgrowth

Industry

Growth

Cont.togrowth

Dermatology 31 10.9 21.4 18.1 29.9

CVS 21 3.0 50.3 20.7 38.1

Antiinfectives 15 1.6 17.8 11.1 12.7

Respiratory 14 3.4 10.1 14.2 7.2


AntiDiabetics 5 1.3 11.0 28.7 2.5

GastroIntestinal 2 0.4 11.7 13.3 1.4

Gyneacology 2 0.7 8.9 14.7 1.0

Chroniccont. 25.3 40.6

0.0

8.0

16.0

24.0

32.0

40.0

10

14

17

21

24

28

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)



1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate

Contrbution

togrowth

Telma Chronic 7.0 30.5 48.8 12.7

AscorilPlus Acute 6.6 47.5 (0.7) (0.3)

TelmaH Chronic 6.5 29.2 47.0 11.5

CandidB Acute 5.0 86.9 17.1 4.0

Candid Acute 3.2 25.9 15.5 2.4

TelmaAm Chronic 2.3 20.2 87.1 5.8

Lizolid Acute 2.2 21.0 11.5 1.3

Elovera Acute 1.9 10.1 16.4 1.4

Altacef Acute 1.8 4.8 (0.4) (0.0)

Momate Acute 1.6 33.6 19.9 1.5

Total 38.2 23.7 40.3

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Sunpharma

Cadila

Lupin

DrReddy's

Glenmark

IPCA

Torrent

(Grow

th%)


20/34


Pharmaceuticals

GSKIndia(GLXOIN,INR2,080,NotRated)

Perfromancerelativetotheindustry Primarysalesgrowthvariance



0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


Domestic

formulatio

ns

93%

Iodex

4%

Exports

3%

GSK has been showing consistent improvement in growth, led by focus segments such as antiinfectives, dermatology and vaccine

Vitamins have turned around with 23% growth in January. The CVS segment has also witnessed strong traction, driven by brande

generics.GSKhasleadershipinvaccinesandhormoneswith19%and20%marketshare,respectively.ExceptPhexinandBetnesol,oth

top

brands

are

showing

strong

traction.

1214

7

15

9

15

9

16

22

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Q1CY11

Q2CY11

Q3CY11

Q4CY11

Q1CY12E

(%)


Anti

infectives

31%

Dermatolog

y

17%Vitamins

9%

Respiratory

7%

Vaccines

5.5%

CNS

0%

Gastro

6%

CVS

3%

Hormones

7%

Others

14%



21/34


MonthlyUpdate



Source:AIOCD,EdelweissresearchClosingstockanalysis Marketsharetrend(MAT)

14

8

1

4

13

0.0

3.8

7.6

11.4

15.2

19.0

GSK Industry

(%)


16%16%

Therapeuticarea

%of

total

Market

share

GSK

growth

Industry

Growth

Cont.to

growth

Antiinfectives 31 7.8 18.2 11.1 34.5

Dermatology 17 14.7 23.5 18.1 23.3

Vitamins 9 4.8 15.1 19.6 8.9

Respiratory 7 4.2 3.2 14.2 1.6

Gastro 6 2.6 13.0 13.3 5.3

Hormones 7 19.3 11.8 17.1 5.3

Vaccines 5 19.5 20.7 10.7 6.9

CVS 3 1.1 26.3 20.7 4.7

CNS 0 0.2 5.9 15.0 0.1


0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

10

14

18

22

26

30

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)

Secondarygrowth(RHS) Closingstock(P.Y.)

Closingstock(C.Y.)

4.64

4.66

4.68

4.70

4.72

4.74

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands

Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate

Contrbution

togrowth

Augmentin Acute 10.1 26.4 26.8 15.7

Calpol Acute 5.5 35.6 16.9 5.8

Zinetac Acute 4.6 31.7 15.5 4.5

Ceftum Acute 4.5 29.0 25.2 6.6

Eltroxin Acute 3.4 77.9 29.4 5.6

BetnovateC Acute 3.0 100.0 29.6 5.1

Betnesol Acute 3.0 75.3 4.6 1.0

Phexin Acute 2.8 40.0 (1.6) (0.3)

BetnovateN Acute 2.6 99.8 35.1 5.0

Neosporin Acute 2.5 86.1 5.1 0.9

Total 42.0 19.3 49.9

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

(Gro

wth%)


22/34


Pharmaceuticals

IPCA(IPCAIN,INR355,NotRated)




0.0

7.0

14.0

21.0

28.0

35.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


Domestic

formulations

46%

Europe

18%

Americas

8%

CIS

5%

Asia2%

Africa

11%

Australia

8%

API

2%

AfteranunderperformanceinH1FY12,IPCAhasbouncedbackstronglywithsegmentslikepainmanagement,gastroanddermaoutpacin

theindustrygrowth.ZerodolfamilyandHCQSarekeygrowthdriversinpainmanagement.Antimalaria,akeysegment,grew11%inFY1

versus 25% in FY11 due to low seasonal pickup which weighed on overall growth during the year. However, antimalaria sales hav

reboundedwith25%growthinMarch.ManagementhasguidedforrecoveryinbusinessduringQ4FY12.

5

12

3

6

12

18

22

8

2223

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12E

(%)


CVSandAnti

diabetes

25%

CNS

3%

Nutraceutica

ls

1%

Painmgmt

20%Anti

bacterials

9%

Anti

malarials

23%

Gastro

8%

Cough

preperations

4%

Dermatology

2%

Others

5%

Chronic

49%



23/34


MonthlyUpdate





108

5

4

4

3

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

IPCA Industry

(%)


18%

16%


Marketshare

IPCAGrowth

Industry

Growth

Cont.togrowth

Antimalarials 23.0 43.7 10.7 9.4 14.5

PainManagement 19.8 4.5 30.3 14.0 30.0

CVS 18.4 2.4 14.8 20.7 15.5

Gastro 7.9 1.2 24.0 13.3 9.9

Antiinfectives 8.8 0.8 1.7 11.1 1.0

Diabetes 6.7 1.8 22.8 28.7 8.1

CNS 3.3 0.9 (5.8) 15.0 (1.3)

Respiratory 4.2 0.9 34.8 14.2 7.0

Oncology 2.7 5.1 39.4 26.2 5.1

Dermatology 2.4 0.8 17.8 18.1 2.3


0.0

7.0

14.0

21.0

28.0

35.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)




1.3

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.9

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate

Contrbution

togrowth

Lariago Acute 5.4 75.4 (8.1) (3.1

Hcqs Acute 4.6 74.8 24.9 6.0

ZerodolP Acute 4.1 28.4 42.3 8.0

RapitherAb Acute 4.0 37.7 15.6 3.5

ZerodolSp Acute 3.3 31.8 72.3 8.9

Perinorm Acute 2.9 76.5 (3.8) (0.7

Azibact Acute 2.7 5.8 48.7 5.7

Larinate Acute 2.7 20.1 9.5 1.5

GlycinormM Chronic 2.6 14.9 25.2 3.4

Zerodol Acute 2.4 37.4 26.2 3.3

Total 34.6 19.3 36.5

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Intas

DrReddy's

IPCA

Torrent

(Gro

wth%)


24/34


Pharmaceuticals

Lupin(LPCIN,INR550,BUY)




0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


Domestic

formulatio

ns

32%

US

42%

Europe

6%

Japan

12%

ROW

8%

Lupins secondary growth has lagged the industry vizaviz a strong outperformance earlier. Secondary growth has declined largely o

accountofsomeslowdowninantiinfectives(inclAntiTB),whilegrowthinchronicsegmentsremainsstrong.Anotherfactorwhichcou

havecontributedtothecompany'sslowdown ishigherbase.Lupinhasexpandedaggressivelyoverpasttwoyears;however,growth

higher base has moderated. We remain positive on Lupin due to its strong execution capability and robust track record. It has no

becomethesecondlargestplayerincardiacandisamongtheTop10playersinothermajorsegments.

11

17

22

30

26

21 20 19

1614

0.0

7.0

14.0

21.0

28.0

35.0

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12E

(%)


CVS24%

Anti

diabetics

8%

CNS

5%

Respirator

y

11%

AntiTB

11%

Antibiotoic

s

19%

Gastrointe

stinal

7%

NSAIDS2%

Others

13%

Generics

0%

Chronic

37%



25/34


MonthlyUpdate

GrowthdriversVolume,price,newlaunches(MAT) Relativeperformancetopeers (MAT)




13

8

6

4

(2)

3

(6.0)

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

Lupin Industry

(%)


17%

15%

Therapeuticarea

%of

total

Market

share

Lupin

growth

Industry

growth

Cont.to

growth

Antiinfectives

(inclTB) 29 4.8 7.7 11.1 14.1

CVS 24 15.2 18.3 20.7 25.3

Respiratory 11 2.7 13.6 14.2 9.4


Antidiabetics 8 1.9 22.3 28.7 9.7

CNS 5 0.3 22.1 15.0 6.6


0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

12

14

16

18

20

22

April

Ma

y

Ju

n

Jul

Au

g

Sept

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)




3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

(Gro

wth%)

Brands Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate

Contrbution

togrowth

Tonact Chronic 3.7 10.4 16.8 3.6

GluconormG Chronic 2.7 7.9 48.5 6.0

Budamate Chronic 2.0 18.0 18.8 2.2

Ramistar Chronic 2.0 15.6 9.3 1.1

RCinex Acute 1.9 54.7 14.9 1.7

LCin Acute 1.8 16.2 8.2 0.9

Tazar Acute 1.7 9.7 17.9 1.8

Lupenox Acute 1.7 11.2 0.3 0.0

Esiflo Chronic 1.6 15.3 3.5 0.4

Rablet Acute 1.6 11.8 7.3 0.7

Total 20.6 15.1 18.5


26/34


Pharmaceuticals

PfizerIndia(PFIZIN,INR1,348,NotRated)




0.0

7.6

15.2

22.8

30.4

38.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


Pharma

81%

Animal

health13%

Clinical

developm

entops.

6%

PfizerhasdepictedanallroundperformanceinvarioussegmentsandwedoseetheconvergencetoprimarynumbersinQ3FY12where

primarygrowthhasbeen20%versus1214%earlier.MostTAsareshowinganaboveindustrygrowth,drivenbyanumberoflaunches

brandedgenericsacrosssegments.Further,despiteahigherbase,growthinkeybrandssuchasCorex,Becosules,andMagnexishealth

OurconcernsforPfizerarehighercontributionofpriceincreasestogrowth(10%)andincreaseinclosingstocksincepastthreemonths.

21

1412

20

26

2123

32

20

0.0

7.0

14.0

21.0

28.0

35.0

Q4CY10

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12E

(%)


CVS

9%

CNS

4%

Gastro

intestinal

8%

Respiratory

20%

Anti

infectives

18.9%

Vitamins

12%

Hormones

8%

Pain

management

8%

Others

12%

Chronic 13%

Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestimat


27/34


MonthlyUpdate





128

2

4

10

3

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Pfizer Industry

(%)


25%

16%


Marketshare

Pfizergrowth

Industry

Growth

Cont.togrowth

Respiratory 21 6.1 24.1 14.2 20.0

Antiinfectives 19 2.4 28.7 11.1 21.0

Vitamins 12 3.1 17.3 19.6 8.7

CVS 9 1.7 21.8 20.7 8.8


Hormones 8 11.3 28.4 17.1 3.1


CNS 4 1.4 43.9 15.0 5.5

Dermatology 3 1.1 11.2 18.1 1.3


0.0

8.0

16.0

24.0

32.0

40.0

10

14

18

22

26

30

April

May

Jun Ju

l

Aug

Sept

Oc

t

Nov

Dec

Jan Feb Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)

Secondarygrowth(RHS)Closingstock(PreviousYear)Closingstock(CurrentYear)

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate

Contrbution

togrowth

Corex Acute 17.0 46.7 25.8 17.5

Becosules Acute 9.2 20.1 17.6 6.9

Magnex Acute 7.2 46.7 22.1 6.5

Dolonex Acute 6.2 73.3 31.9 7.5

GelusilMps Acute 5.8 78.8 1.0 0.3

SoluMedrol Acute 4.5 39.0 34.9 5.8

MinipressXl Chronic 4.2 73.4 19.6 3.5

DalacinC Acute 3.8 80.4 51.2 6.4

Claribid Acute 2.2 36.5 39.3 3.1

CorexDx Acute 1.9 34.9 22.6 1.8

Total 62.1 23.6 59.2

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

Aventis

(Gro

wth%)


28/34


Pharmaceuticals

RanbaxyLaboratories(RBXYIN,INR517,REDUCE)




0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


India

19%

US&

Canada

26%Europe,

CIS,Africa

32%

Asia

Pacific

7%

Latin

America

5%

API

7%

Consumer

Healthcare

4%

Ranbaxyhasreboundedtodoubledigitgrowthfromnegative(1.4%)inJanuary.Weseeasignificantcorrectionintheclosingstockove

the past few months, highlighting the stock pushed into channels during field force expansion under project Viraat is not gettin

convertedintoprescriptionvolume.RanbaxyhasbeenlagginginmostofTAswhilegrowthinTop10brandshasbeenmoderate.Onth

positive side, OTC portfolio is doing well with strong growth in brands like Revital and Volini. We highlight that the recent launch o

combinationduginantimalariasegmentcouldhavepositiveimpactongrowth.

13

109

1110

18

11

17

1311

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

Q1CY11

Q2CY11

Q3CY11

Q4CY11

Q1CY12E

(%)


CVS

13% CNS

3%Anti

diabetics

2%

Vitamins

10%

Respiratory

4%

Dermatolog

y

13%Anti

infective

30%

Gastro

intestinal

5%

Painmgmt.

12%

Others

8%Chronic

18%



29/34


MonthlyUpdate





4

8

9

4

03

(2.0)

2.0

6.0

10.0

14.0

18.0

Ranbaxy Industry

(%)


13%

15%

Therapeuticarea

%of

total

Market

share

Ranbaxy

growth

Industry

growth

Cont.to

growth

Antiinfective 30 7.3 4.0 11.1 10.0

CVS 13 4.3 26.6 20.7 23.4

Painmgmt. 12 7.0 22.4 14.0 19.2

Dermatology 13 10.5 9.4 18.1 9.4


CNS 3 2.0 (30.2) 15.0 (10.3)

Respiratory 4 2.2 10.3 14.2 3.2

Vitamins 10 4.7 17.9 19.6 12.7

Antidiabetics 3 1.7 38.7 28.7 6.1


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

10

14

18

22

26

30

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)




4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy%oftotal

Marketshare

Growthrate

Contrbution

togrowthRevital Acute 7.6 88.5 23.5 12.5

Volini Acute 6.2 50.3 25.7 10.9

Mox Acute 3.8 37.0 (5.2) (1.8)

Storvas Chronic 3.6 14.6 12.9 3.5

Cifran Acute 2.6 29.2 (4.3) (1.0)

Cilanem Acute 2.3 37.6 9.9 1.8

Rosuvas Chronic 2.2 26.8 42.9 5.8

Zanocin Acute 2.0 19.3 4.8 0.8

Sporidex Acute 1.6 22.0 16.6 2.0

Cepodem Acute 1.6 8.8 (3.1) (0.4)

Total 33.5 13.3 34.1

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

(Gro

wth%)


30/34


Pharmaceuticals

SunPharma(SUNPIN,INR595,BUY)

Perfromancerelative

to

industry

Primary

sales

growth

variance



0.0

7.0

14.0

21.0

28.0

35.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


Domestic

formulatio

ns

41%

ROW

markets

10%

US

generics

40%

APIs

9%

SunPharmahasastrongfranchise inthedomesticmarketandbrand leadership inchronicsegments.Further, itsgrowth ingastroan

painmanagement isgaininggoodtraction.Wehighlightthatbeingamarket leader inkeytherapies,SunPharmawillbeabletosusta

goodmomentumwhileitspeersmaylosetocompetition.

2018 18

22

18

23 2321

2726

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q4FY1

1

Q1FY1

2

Q2FY1

2

Q3FY1

2

Q4FY12

E

(%)


Cardiology

21%

Diabetology

10%

Neuro

psychiatry

27%

Gastroentrol

ogy

14%

Gyneacology

7%

Painmgmt.

5%

Opthalmolo

gy

5%

Others

7%

Respiratory

4%

Chronic

63%

Note:Q4FY12representedelweissestim


31/34


MonthlyUpdate



Closingstock

analysis

Market

share

trend

(MAT)


15

8

6

4

3

3

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

SunPharma Industry

(%)

Volume Price Newproducts

24%

16%

Therapeuticarea

%of

total

Market

share

Sun

growth Industry

Contrbution

togrowth

Neuropsychiatry 27 20.5 20.0 15.0 23.0

Cardiology 21 7.4 25.9 20.7 22.2

Gastroentrology 14 5.8 30.4 13.3 17.0

Diabetology 10 6.9 33.7 28.7 12.7

Gyneacology 7 5.7 18.8 14.7 5.8


Respiratory 4 2.4 20.4 14.2 3.6


0.0

7.0

14.0

21.0

28.0

35.0

15

17

18

20

21

23

Ap

ril

M

ay

J

un

Jul

A

ug

Se

pt

O

ct

N

ov

D

ec

Jan

(%)

(Noofdays)




4.2

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.8

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands

Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate

Contrbution

togrowth

Pantocid Acute 3.1 18.1 23.6 3.0

Aztor Chronic 2.4 10.4 27.0 2.6

Gemer Chronic 2.2 10.1 38.6 3.2

Susten Acute 2.2 23.1 10.3 1.1

Glucored Chronic 2.0 61.5 6.0 0.6

PantocidDsr Acute 1.7 15.2 28.2 1.9

Levipil Chronic 1.5 31.2 73.5 3.3

Clopilet Acute 1.5 23.7 31.9 1.8

Oxetol Chronic 1.4 36.5 20.7 1.3

Cardivas Chronic 1.3 65.0 19.9 1.1

Total 19.4 25.1 20.0

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

GSK

Ranbaxy

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Pfizer

DrReddy's

(Growth%)


32/34


Pharmaceuticals

TorrentPharma(TRPIN,INR645,BUY)




0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)


Domestic

formulatio

ns

39%

Brazil

16%

Russia

3%

EU

6%

Germany

(Heumann

)

14%

ROW

6%

US6%

CRAMS

10%

Torrentsgrowthtractionoverpasttwomonthsishealthyanditisaimingatnarrowingthegaptoindustry.Whilegrowthinthechron

segmenthasbeengoodat21%duringMarch,antiinfectivesandgastrohavealsoreporteddoubledigitgrowthat11%from(2%)inJa

We highlight that management as part of extra urban roll out has increased inventory supplies, which had set a strong base in FY1

However,due to instability and attrition, prescription generationhas been slower thereby pullingdown growth in acute segment. W

believethat

by

April

2012,

the

base

effect

will

recede

and

growth

would

start

seeing

better

traction.

910

7

8

11

16 16

8

10

14

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12E

(%)


CVS

34%

CNS

21%

Others

6%

Gastrointe

stinal

18%

Anti

infectives

12%

Pain

mgmt.

3%

Anti

diabetics

6%

Chronic60%



33/34


MonthlyUpdate





9 8

43

(1)

4

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

TorrentPharma Industry

(%)


12%

16%

Therapeuticarea

%of

total

Market

share

Torrent

Growth

Industry

Growth

Cont.to

growth

CVS 33.8 3.9 17.9 20.7 47.4

CNS 20.8 5.2 14.0 15.0 23.8

Gastro 17.7 2.3 3.7 13.3 5.8

Antiinfectives 12.6 1.0 (2.4) 11.1 (2.9)

Antidiabetics 5.9 1.4 16.0 28.7 7.5

Painmgmt. 3.1 0.6 19.8 14.0 4.8


0.0

4.5

9.0

13.5

18.0

22.5

10

14

18

22

26

30

April

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

(%)

(Noofdays)




1.48

1.51

1.54

1.57

1.60

1.62

Mar11

Apr11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul11

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar12

(%)

Brands Therapy

%of

total

Market

share

Growth

rate(YTD)

Contrbution

togrowth

Alprax Chronic 4.2 26.9 10.7 3.7

Nikoran Chronic 3.9 44.3 17.6 5.4

Dilzem Chronic 3.3 41.2 (2.1) (0.7)

Domstal Acute 2.8 60.9 (8.7) (2.5)

Topcef Acute 2.8 3.5 (20.9) (6.8)

Nebicard Chronic 2.7 35.2 25.8 5.1

AzulixMf Chronic 2.3 3.3 24.3 4.1

NexproRd Acute 2.2 34.8 31.9 5.0

Droxyl Acute 2.0 16.0 (5.1) (1.0)

DeplattA Acute 2.0 17.6 17.6 2.7

Total 28.2 6.1 15.1

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

IPM

Cipla

SunPharma

Cadila

Lupin

Intas

DrReddy's

IPCA

Torrent

(Gro

wth%)


34/34

Pharmaceuticals

Buy

BuyBuy

150

350

550

750

950

1,150

Ju

l-08

Aug-0

8

Sep-0

8

Oc

t-08

Nov-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jan-0

9

Fe

b-0

9

Mar-

09

Apr-

09

May-0

9

Jun-0

9

Ju

l-09

(INR)

EdelweissSecuritiesLimited,Edelweisshouse,offC.S.T.Road,Kalina,Mumbai400098.

Board:(9122)40094400,Email:[email protected] Head InstitutionalEquities [email protected] +912222864206

NischalMaheshwari CoHeadInstitutionalEquities&HeadResearch [email protected] +912266233411

Coveragegroup(s)ofstocksbyprimaryanalyst(s):PharmaceuticalsApolloHospitalsEnterprise,AurobindoPharma,Cipla,Dr.ReddysLaboratories,Lupin,PiramalHealthcare,SunPharmaceuticals

Industries,TorrentPharmaceuticals

RecentResearch

18Apr12 Sun

Pharma

UStopcourtrulesforSun

Pharmaunitonpatent;

EdelFlash584 Hold

11Apr12 Pharma Bumperearningsseason;

Q4ResultPreview10Apr12 Ranbaxy

Laboratories

Recoveryinsight;Pricedin;

VisitNote 497 Re duce

DistributionofRatings/MarketCap

EdelweissResearchCoverageUniverse

RatingDistribution* 104 60 18 183

*3stocksunderreview

MarketCap(INR) 114 58 11

> 5 0 bn B et w e e n 1 0 b n a n d 5 0 b n < 1 0 bn

Date Company Title Price(INR) Recos

Buy Hold Reduce Tota l

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Access th e e n t i r e r e p o s i to r y o f Ed e lw e i ss Re sea r ch o n w w w .e d el r e se ar ch .co m

RatingInterpretation

Buy appreciatemorethan15%overa12monthperiod

Hold appreciateupto15%overa12monthperiod

Reduce de reciatemorethan5%overa12month eriod

Rat ing Expected to

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Edelweiss Pharmaceuticals Monthly Update Apr 12