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Ecuador Binding Constraints to
GrowthIDB LAC Competitiveness & Growth
Seminar
Simon CuevaVicente AlbornozLeopoldo Avellán
September 2007
Applying GDM methodology to Ecuador
•Assessing underlying constraints to growth
•Examining diverse potential tree branches explaining low growth
•Judgment calls on the relative importance of the branches
•Use of factual & perception indicators with international comparisons, surveys, databases on enterprises and micro businesses
An intermediate growth performer in the region
•Above-average results in the 1970s (oil boom) and the early 2000s (oil + post crisis recovery)
•Below-average results in the other periods, particularly 1980s, 1990s (financial crisis) and currently
-2%
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1%
2%
3%
4%
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1951-59
Average
-4%
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4%
6%
Arg
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Chi
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ica
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ico
Nic
arag
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Pana
ma
Para
guay
Peru
Dom
. Rep
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rugu
ayV
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uela
1960-69Average
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Arg
entin
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l
Chi
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ica
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ico
Nic
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nam
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Para
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rugu
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1970-79Average
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Arg
entin
aB
oliv
ia
Bra
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Chi
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Cos
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ica
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ico
Nic
arag
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nam
a
Para
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Peru
Dom
. Rep
.
Uru
guay
Ven
ezue
la
1980-89Average
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%A
rgen
tina
Bol
ivia
Bra
zil
Chi
le
Col
ombi
aC
osta
Ric
a
Ecu
ador
ElS
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Gua
tem
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Hai
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Mex
ico
Nic
arag
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Pana
ma
Para
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Peru
Dom
. Rep
.
Uru
guay
Ven
ezue
la
1990-99Average
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Arg
entin
aB
oliv
ia
Bra
zil
Chi
le
Col
ombi
aC
osta
Ric
a
Ecu
ador
ElS
alva
dor
Gua
tem
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Hai
tiH
ondu
ras
Mex
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Nic
arag
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Pana
ma
Para
guay
Peru
Dom
. Rep
.
Uru
guay
Ven
ezue
la
2000-05Average
Source: ECLAC
A volatile and commodity-oriented economy
•2.4% average per capita growth over 1951-2005 •Growth accounting: TFP shortfalls for the income level; much more negative growth than other LAC countries•Economic booms led by a few export commodities despite some growth of industrial exports since the 1990s•Phases of growth with significant changes in average growth performance: high volatility, even for LAC standards•Relatively high investment levels and capital stock on a regional basis•Oil dependence: mixed evidence suggesting some Dutch disease; fiscal revenues and procyclical fiscal policies
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Chile Dominican Republic Ecuador Venezuela
Source: Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, University of Pennsylvania
GDM decision tree
Low levels of private investment and entrepreneurship
Low return to economic activity High cost of finance
Low social returnsLow
appropriability
Costly international financing - High
country riskCostly domestic
financing
Geographical or natural resources
impedimentsBad
infrastructure
Low domestic savings: 1. Financial system
weaknesses 2. Inappropriate savings-
boosting framework
Poor intermediation: 1.Weak regulation
2. Weak enforcement of creditor rights
3. Asymmetric information 4. Thin domestic capital
markets
Low human capitalGovernment
failuresGovernment
failures Market failures
Macro risks: Financial,
monetary & fiscal stability
Micro risks: Property rights & Legal stability;
Corruption; Taxes; Inefficient public invt
decisions Information externalities Coordination externalities
Access to finance: a major business complaint
•Private sector surveys (World Bank Investment Climate 453 firms; Proyecto Salto for 17,626 micro businesses): access & cost of finance are major complaints, either for working capital or investment purposes •Statistical consistency: access to finance matters; firms highlighting financing constraints actual perceive them in their business decisions, use of bank loans and allocation of internal funds (not true for other mentioned constraints)•More sensitive for small & micro businesses:
•Credit seen by far as the most important requirement for success•Cumbersome procedures; collateral requirements; high interest rates
Source: Enterprise Surveys, the World Bank
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Eco
nom
ic a
ndR
egul
ator
yP
olic
y
Mac
roec
onom
icIn
stab
ility
Acc
ess
toF
inan
cing
Cor
rupt
ion
Cos
t of
Fin
anci
ng
Ant
i-co
mpe
titiv
e or
info
rmal
Tax
rat
es
Leg
alsy
stem
/con
flic
tre
solu
tion
Tax
adm
in.
Ele
ctri
city
48124
1,7185,621
2,492480
13063
1,65540
1,196176208
332
Technical asistance/ AdvisoryTraining
Credit for equipment, machinery, facilitiesCredit for inputs or merchandise
More product to sellBetter access to raw materials or productsImprove product presentation/ packaging
Improve processing technologyMore space
More or better workforceMore or better equipment
Pay off debtPromotions, sellers
Transport
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Most important requirement for success
Source: Proyecto Salto survey
Access to finance and underlying reasons
•Weak credit history, macro instability: high costs of international finance, highest EMBI+ country risk (more than 500bp above LAC average)•Actual impact on domestic creditors limited for now: growing private foreign debt, (incl. back-to-back); limited banks’ foreign financial liabilities (6% of total) •Significant credit growth in recent years, in line with a recovery of depositor confidence after the 1999 financial crisis and the benign international environment•Ecuador macro crisis have traditionally included problems of access to intl finance•Low real lending rates by LAC standards but significant hidden costs: 22.5% implicit rate•Market segmentation, with widely variable real cost of credit; more acute transparency and competition problems for micro businesses / informal sector•Despite dollarization, lack of modern and comprehensive legal & regulatory environment on financial resolution & depositor’s protection => excessive precautionary liquid assets affecting financing costs?•Low levels of financial intermediation: creditor rights, weak judicial system, appropriability issues
Natural resources & human capital
•Diverse and abundant natural resources: oil, mining, productive land, forests, water, biodiversity, geographical position•Some geographical constraints arising from physical fragmentation: transportation and infrastructure costs; cultural and regional antagonism; decentralization trends and related risks•Human capital: mixed indicators and regional rankings:
•Favorable for primary education coverage, alphabetization, training for firms’ employees•Less favorable for secondary & tertiary education, standardized quality tests•Poorly for R&D spending, publications, patents•Large returns to schooling in the country but poor comparisons with other migrants in the US human capital in short supply, poor education quality •Waves of recent migration, particularly for segments with higher primary and secondary education coverage •Business surveys do not place workers skills as a critical issue
Infrastructure: some critical areas
•Mixed rankings with some relative strengths (water coverage, fixed and mobile phone lines) and weaknesses (paved roads, airport usage)•Progress on transportation and telecommunications (road concessions, large port & airport projects), not perceived as critical obstacles by businesses•Weakest links: oil and electricity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ene
-00
May
-00
Sep
-00
Ene
-01
May
-01
Sep
-01
Ene
-02
May
-02
Sep
-02
Ene
-03
May
-03
Sep
-03
Ene
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Ene
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Ene
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Ene
-07
Petroecuador Private companies Total
* Excluding the impact of the decision to rescind Occidental contract in April Source: World Bank’s WDI, average includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Peru and Uruguay.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Ecuador Argentina Brazil Chile
Colombia Peru Average
Oil Production Energy Transmission and Distribution Losses
Oil: weak institutions, low investment
•Oil sector critical for export proceeds, GDP, fiscal revenues + subsidies•Steady decline in state-controlled oil production since 1994 (except Oxy, 4.5% average annual decline) vs. moderate growth in private production•Constraints not related to oil reserves (covering 23 years of current production); transportation capacity (since 2004, capacity usage of existing pipelines close to 59%) or world demand or prices•Institutional limitations:
•Limited attractiveness to foreign investors, legal limitations for public-private partnerships, shared-management contracts and risk-sharing•Petroecuador: under investment and technological obsolescence in the context of weak governance, transparency or institutional stability•Political interference: Petroecuador decisions and leadership, heavy and regressive oil subsidies (fiscal costs close to 6% of GDP + lack of competition)•Need for investments and transparent markets (exploration, refineries, commercialization) •Vested interests related to unions’ role and to beneficiaries of existing subsidies and related businesses (derivative imports, unloading and domestic transportation, smuggling)
Electricity: weak institutions, low investment
•High final electricity prices by LAC standards: constant threat of power outages; severe obstacle for businesses, recurrent issue•Highest energy losses in the region (more than 40% of transmitted and distributed energy) reflecting technical issues but also smuggling, obsolescence & management •Expensive and growing thermal generation; postponement of several large hydro projects despite natural generating potential: growing imports •State dominated sector (lowest private investment in LAC); clear segmentation by efficiency of distribution utilities; tariff subsidy magnifies the problem•Very low investment levels (0.16% of GDP over 1996-2000)•Vested interests play a role: weak management & collection help large debtors with some influence over managers’ nomination; legal calls for open nomination procedures nor implemented; political interference and governance issues•Regulatory framework on energy pricing + instability exacerbate existing problems and incentives for thermal vs. hydro projects•Hippos and camels - overall impact on growth: sectors where electricity is at least 2% of intermediate production add up to 47% of GDP; most (79% v.a.) grew below the national average since 2000
Macro vulnerability is still alive
•History of macroeconomic crisis episodes related to fiscal, external accounts & financial weaknesses – role of low oil prices & limited access to external financing•Recent macroeconomic performance largely reflects benign external environment•Dollarization cushions the economic impact of political uncertainty but reduces policy room of maneuver•Fiscal policy is largely procyclical: more than 80% of inflows to oil-related funds have been used since 2000 ; fiscal dependence on oil has grown•Elusive political consensus on sustainable fiscal management: significant budget rigidities arising from large eamarking of fiscal revenues: is this a second best alternative to limit fiscal procyclicality?
•Earmarking has constrained investment in key energy sectors, affecting long term growth•Budget implementation is highly discretionary, enhancing strong political actors and sidelining long-term poverty reducing projects•Procyclical fiscal policies are one of the reasons behind the pressures for earmarking protection•Chilean-style structural fiscal budget scheme could potentially help
Micro risks & appropriability: the weakest link
Political Stability
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Latin America Average Ecuador
Government Effectiveness
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Latin America Average Ecuador
Regulatory Quality
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Latin America Average Ecuador
Rule of Law
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Latin America Average Ecuador
Control of Corruption
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Latin America Average Ecuador
Micro risks & appropriability: the weakest link
•Every survey or competitiveness assessment point to Ecuador’s weak institutions and governance problems; Ecuador performs poorly, even within LAC, on political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, corruption
•Exception: rather developed individual liberties– potential threats?
•Recurrent problems, widely perceived as a weakness for business environment; close to last in Transparency International corruption perception index; corruption in the top 3 reasons inhibiting private investment
•Growing lags with LAC on property rights & enforcement; after Argentina, Ecuador faces the largest number of FDI international arbitration procedures•Appropriability issues are clearly a binding constraint for Ecuador•Answers are uneasy; no quick fixes•Addressing social inequality and transparency may be the first steps•Fixing some specific areas to foster business environment may help
Business environment weaknesses
•Market concentration:•In the context of weak institutions, concentration could reflect overdue protection of inefficient sectors but is not necessarily hampering growth•Firm-level date show significant market concentration, particularly for state-controlled or heavily regulated sectors•Concentration correlated with more profitable sectors but not with high-investing ones (measured by net fixed assets growth)•No clear correlation with effective tariff protection; neither effective tariff protection is correlated with strategic value sectors
•Trade openness shrunk from 68.1% of GDP in 2000 to 55.4% of GDP in 2004, with limited new trade agreements signed compared to the region•Some taxation issues (red tape, tax rate structure, VAT drawback process) viewed as moderately problematic for doing business •Business costs: starting a business is relatively fast and inexpensive, hiring costs are among the lowest in LA while firing costs are particularly high
Industrial base and export diversification
•A weak industrial base for innovation and product sophistication:•One of the lowest indexes for manufacturing value added and exports in LAC despite recent growth•Limited technological complexity (medium and high-technology 15% of total v.a.; very low manufacturing v.a.; industrial competitiveness index weak)
• Limited export diversification:•Some recent diversification by product (5 non-oil exports share down from 79% in 1990 to 59% in 2006); number (exported items grew from 281 to 858); and destination (5 largest destinations fell from 78% to 62%)•Manufacturing exports remain largely concentrated by product (5 items - 51% exports) and geographically (East Asia – only 1,5%)
Product space and strategic value
Ecuador and other LAC countries: Open Forest
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Ecuador Colombia Chile Brazil Argentina
46
81
01
21
41
61
82
02
2S
trate
gic
Va
lue
(00
0)
.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5Density (inverse)
Petroleum Raw Materials
Forest Tropical Ag
Animal Prods Cereals
L Intensive K IntensiveMachinery Chemicals
ECU
•Hausmann and Klinger/UTEPI strategic value approach:• Ecuador’s productive capabilities in sparse parts of the product space; some movement in oil, forest and tropical agriculture but no high sophistication areas•Specialized in sectors wit limited global trade growth, value added & technological diffusion – not global star products•Open forest has increased since 1975, as for LAC average, and remains low by regional standards: moving toward high strategic value goods—far from existing products—would require effort and adaptation•Ecuador appears to have products with higher strategic value but farther away: high growth potential but harder to reach
Industrial policy?
• Some successful cases of product development (bananas, shrimps, strawberries, palm heart, broccoli) but also poorly designed or failed industrial policy experiences•Main lessons: key role of well-educated entrepreneurs, key market information trade agreements, combined public-private initiatives in some cases•Supporting policies: well-targeted and controlled credit access for small producers, public leadership to overcome perceived low appropriability of private returns, human capital policies, FDI attractiveness, some real exchange rate depreciation•Potential usefulness of public policies to address some coordination failures and technical expertise needs•However, bad experiences with strong state presence in some areas must always be reminded for caution
Policy recommendations
•Access to finance:•Access to international financing may become important beyond the current favorable situation, as highlighted by Ecuador’s experience and crises – contingent credit lines•Underlying factors are critical: legal stability, creditor rights, informality. Some role for public-private partnerships to foster well-designed access to small producers•Buttress efficient mechanisms for banking regulation, early prevention and resolution procedures, depositor protection•Enhanced attractiveness to foreign banks & banking transparency
•Macro stability:•Foster consensus over sustainable fiscal policies•Politically difficult but potential areas: budget transparency, prioritization of public investment and integrating planning and budget, protecting fiscal revenues to some sectors in bad times (structural fiscal balance?)
Policy recommendations
•Infrastructure:•Prioritize in oil and energy without hampering fiscal stability – role of oil-related funds, reducing oil subsidies•Increased transparency and governance for public controlled companies; business-oriented and professional management
•Appropriability:•The hardest to address – long term and comprehensive efforts•Institutional reforms for the Judiciary, Customs•Transparency and accountability (understandable budget objectives in terms of the coverage of social needs, financial management system, rules for public market attribution)