Economy In Brieff April 2016epubs.nsla.nv.gov/statepubs/epubs/497823-2016-04.pdfWashoe County -0.1% Nevada 5.1% Clark County 3.7% Washoe County 20.5% 1.9% UNEMPLOYMENT RATES April

Nevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & RehabilitationNevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Economy In Brieff

A Monthly Review of Workforce & Economic Information by the Research & Analysis Bureau-

Economic Summary

*Seasonally Adjusted

Nevada* 5.8%Las Vegas MSA 6.1%Reno-Sparks MSA 5.4%Carson City MSA 6.7%United States* 5.0%

Nevada* 2.6%Las Vegas MSA* 2.6%Reno-Sparks MSA* 4.4%Carson City MSA* 0.0%United States*

Nevada -3.0%Clark County -3.6%Washoe County -0.1%

Nevada 5.1%Clark County 3.7%Washoe County 20.5%

1.9%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES April 2016

JOB GROWTH (YOY) April 2016

Economic Indicators

TAXABLE SALES (YOY) February 2015

GAMING WIN (YOY) March 2016

Washoe

Humboldt

Pershing

Elko

White Pine

Churchill

LanderEureka

Nye

Lincoln

Clark

Lyon

Mineral

Esmeralda

Carson

Douglas

Storey

Less Than 5.0%

Between 5.0% and 6.4%

Between 6.5% and 7.9%

Unemployment Rate by County

Between 8.0 and 9.4%

Greater Than or Equal to 9.5%

In April, national job growth slowed considerably. In fact, the monthly increase was the smallest since September of last year. This slow-down was refl ected in Nevada’s labor market, which essentially held steady, adding 400 jobs, sea-sonally adjusted, relative to March – the smallest month-over-month increase since December. Payrolls were expected to increase by 6,300 (not seasonally adjusted), but 6,700 jobs were actually added, leading to the slight seasonally adjusted gain. Specifi cally, the private sec-tor added 900 jobs to payrolls, sea-sonally adjusted, while the public sector decreased by 500 jobs over the month. Although month-over-month growth was not as robust as reported in prior periods, over-the-year, job growth was still relatively strong. Nevada payrolls increased by 32,900 jobs in April, for a growth rate of 2.6 percent, relative to the same month last year. This marks the 64th consecutive month of year-over-year job growth in the Silver State. Nationally, jobs grew at a 1.9 percent annualized pace in April.

Trade/transportation/utilities em-ployment experienced the largest nominal growth this month, adding 9,100 jobs to payrolls year-to-date, for a growth rate of 3.9 percent. The construction super sector contin-ues to have the highest percentage growth rate, up 9.3 percent with the addition of 6,100 jobs relative to the fi rst four months of last year. Min-ing and logging, the only sector to contract, continued to trend down-ward through the early months of this year, off 800 jobs from last year.

With data generated via the La-bor Insight tool offered by Burning Glass Technologies, a supplier of “real-time” labor market informa-tion, we can assess another aspect of the health of the State’s econo-my by looking at trends in online job ads via DETR’s Silver State Solutions initiative. There were 20,000 online job postings in Neva-da this month. This is a 9.5 percent increase from last April’s total of 18,300. For those job ads specify-ing work hours, roughly 90 percent were for full-time positions. The underlying trend of steady growth in online job postings is continuing.

Weekly wages in Nevada as a whole averaged $935 during 2015:IVQ. This compares to $899 a year ago, a gain of four percent. This represents the highest IVQ reading on record. Wages have been trending up since 2011, albe-it at a modest pace. In 2015 as a whole, average weekly wages are up 2.2 percent from the prior year. Underlying trends continue to im-prove, as wage growth is keeping up with infl ation. For instance, during 2015, consumer prices were essentially unchanged from 2014, suggesting that wages have grown in “real” terms over the year. As an aside, it should be noted that fourth quarter readings always re-alize a spike in wages, a phenome-non which can be largely explained by the bonuses eligible work-ers typically receive at year-end.

Turning to the nation, similar trends are evident in hourly wages. Ac-cording to the Current Employment Statistics Program, prior to the eco-

April 2016

Nevada Economy in Brief

Nevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Economic Summary

Three Occupations Pay Higher than $40/Hr; Three Pay Lower than $15; Avg.=$20.58

2015 Average Hourly Wages by Occupational Group

Nevada Wages at $935/Week in 2015:IVQ; A Record-High for the Qtr.; Up 4% Over 2014

Nevada Average Weekly Wage

U.S. Wages Growing Near 2%; Still Enough to Outpace Infl a-tion; Wages=$25.50/hr.

U.S. Average Hourly Wage

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Percentage Change

Aver

age

Wee

kly W

age

Percentage Change Average Weekly Wage

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Percentage Growth

Aver

age

Hour

ly W

age

Percentage Growth Average Hourly Wages

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50

Food Preparation and ServingPersonal Care and Service

Building and Grounds Cleaning and MaintenanceHealthcare Support

Sales and Related OccupationsFarming Fishing and Forestry

ProductionOffice and Administrative Support

Transportation and Material MovingProtective Service

All OccupationsEducation Training and Library

Construction and ExtractionInstallation Maintenance and Repair

Community and Social ServiceArts Design Entertainment Sports and Media

Business and Financial OperationsLife Physical and Social Science

Computer and MathematicalArchitecture and Engineering

Healthcare Practitioners and TechnicalLegal

Management

nomic downturn (the beginning of 2007), the national hourly wage came in at an average of $20.69. Since then, wages have increased to just over $25 per hour, specifi cally, coming in at $25.47 in March. Although the increase in wages is encouraging, perhaps the most important statistic is the noticeable easing of wage growth over the course of the past several years. In 2007, wage growth came in at about 3.5 percent, measured on a year-over-year basis. During the past 12 months, wage gains have come in at 2.3 percent. On the other hand, the news regarding “real” (infl ation-adjusted) wage growth is slightly more promising. When we compare the last 12 months (ending March 2016) to the same period ending in March 2008, an eight-year span, we see that wages are up 19.3 percent. Over the same period, prices, measured by the Consumer Price Index, are up 12 percent.

Although we typically focus on average wag-es for Nevada as a whole, analyzing wages across occupational groups can shed addi-tional insight into the State’s economy. Us-ing data from the Occupational Employment Statistics Program, we can identify excep-tionally high-paying and low-paying groups. Overall, the average hourly wage comes in at $20.58 for all occupations in the Silver State. The management, legal, and health-care practitioners/technical occupational groups have the highest hourly wages for any group in the State, at $47.07, $46.35, and $41.51, respectively. In terms of em-ployment, the management and healthcare practitioners/technical occupational groups are fairly large, each employing over 50,000 Nevadans; meanwhile, legal occupations have only 9,000 on payroll. While the highest paying occupational groups vary by industry, the lowest paying groups tend to be those in service providing industries. Building/grounds cleaning and maintenance ($14.04), personal care/service ($12.63), and food preparation/serving ($12.17) occupations provide the lowest hourly wages in the State. Although these occupations are low-pay-ing, they have relatively high employment, ranging from 72,400 jobs (building/grounds cleaning and maintenance) to 177,100 jobs (food preparation/serving). With 192,500 on payroll, Nevada’s largest occupation-al group, offi ce and administrative support, has an average hourly wage of $16.88.

April 2016



Economic Summary

High School Grads (or Less) Account for Nearly Two-Thirds of UI Claimants

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Claimants by Education

Nevada had Highest Jobless Rate in the U.S. for 4 Years; Recent Signs of Improvement

# of States with Unemployment Rates Higher than Nevada (Through March)

Average Annual Wages; NPWR Data System

Wages for NSHE Grads/Completers Working in Nevada Rise with Educational Attainment

$0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 $75,000 $90,000

Certificate Of Less Than One Year

Certificate Of At Least One But Less Than Two Year

Associate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Post Baccalaureate Certificate

Master's Degree

Post Master's Certificate

Doctoral Degree (Academic)

Less than High School

High School

Higher Ed 1-4 Years

Higher Ed 5-7

Higher Ed 7+Unknown

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Last month we used the Nevada P-20 to Workforce Research (NPWR) Data System to show county-level data concerning the largest industries and corresponding Neva-da System of Higher Education (NSHE) de-grees held in those industries. This month, we use NPWR to identify median wages by educational attainment for NSHE grads and completers. A recently released report pro-vides 2014 median earnings for graduates based on the certifi cate or degree earned. Not surprisingly, the report shows that the more education a person receives, the more that person earns. Median earnings for Bachelor’s Degree recipients working in Nevada were $52,900, nearly $6,000 more than the median earnings of NSHE Associ-ate’s Degree holders. Master’s Degree and Doctoral Degree recipients had median earn-ings of $64,700 and $76,500, respectively.

Greater educational attainment tends to show improved employment outcomes, as persons with higher levels of education generally re-ceive higher wages and have improved job security. This tendency appears to hold true when examining the educational background of Nevadan’s receiving unemployment insur-ance (UI) benefi ts. On average over the last 12 months, persons receiving a high school education or less make up 65 percent of unemployment insurance claimants, while representing an estimated 45 percent of Ne-vada’s population, according to Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. When contrasted with the share of UI claimants that have at least a year or more of higher education, an alarming disparity appears. Nevadan’s with one or more years of higher education rep-resent 32 percent of UI claimants while mak-ing up 55 percent of the State’s population.

Overall, initial claims activity in April remained steady, with 10,800 claims in the month. The general trend in claims, captured by the 12-month average, continues to decline, fall-ing to 12,100. On a year-to-date basis, initial claims are down nearly 17 percent compared to 2015. The year-to-date total of 46,900 initial claims is the fi rst time there have been fewer than 50,000 in the fi rst four months of a year since 2006. Other areas of unemployment insurance activity continue to show small, but consistent improvements. Collectively, these improvements result in fewer benefi ts paid each month, and, in turn, should improve the

April 2016



Economic Summary

Non-HS Grads Have Highest Unemployment Rate; College Grads+ Have Lowest

Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment; 12-Month moving Average

Including Discouraged Workers Adds 0.3 Point to the “Offi cial” RateAlternative Measures Of Labor Underutilization

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no collegeSome college or associate degree Bachelor's degree and higher

Discouraged Workers Peaked at 18K in Early-2012; Now at 6KDiscouraged Workers Who’ve Given Up Work Search; 12-Month Moving Avg.

Measure Underutilization Concept Level

Official Ratejobless persons available to take a job who have actively sought work in the past four weeks

6.4%

U-1 jobless 15 weeks or longer 2.7%

U-2 job losers and persons losing a temporary job 3.4%

U-3 similar to official rate 6.5%

U-4 U-3 plus discouraged workers 6.8%

U-5 U-4 plus others marginally attached to the labor force 7.8%

U-6 U-5 plus those employed part-time for economic reasons 13.4%

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization(Annual Average - 2015: IIQ through 2016: IQ)

Official Rate: annual average of 2015:IIQ through 2016:IQ

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

rate at which Nevada’s Unemployment Insur-ance Trust Fund moves towards a balance adequate enough for an economic downturn.

For the 62nd consecutive month, the unem-ployment rate in the Silver State decreased on a year-over-year basis. In April, the Ne-vada unemployment rate decreased 1.1 per-centage points over the year, to a seasonally adjusted 5.8 percent. Over-the-month the jobless rate held steady. Concurrent with the State movement, the U.S. rate also held steady from March, at fi ve percent – 0.8 per-centage point lower than the Nevada rate. This is the smallest differential since June 2008.

An examination of Nevada’s unemployment relative to that in other states provides con-siderable insight into how the Silver State has fared over the business cycle. In Jan-uary 2005, with an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, Nevada had the 41st highest unemployment rate in the nation, in other words, 40 states had higher rates than the Silver State. Over a four-year period begin-ning in early-2010, Nevada had the highest unemployment rate in the nation in near-ly every month. Further, the Silver State’s unemployment rate hit an all-time high of 13.7 percent during that time span. Since then, the situation has started to improve, refl ecting an improving labor market in the State. In April 2016, eight states had high-er unemployment rates than in Nevada.

Using data from the Current Population Sur-vey (CPS) we can identify unemployment rate trends for Nevadans with varying levels of educational attainment. Again, the value of an education is evident. In nearly every month over the past decade, the unemploy-ment rate for those in the workforce with less than a high school education was the high-est amongst all Nevadans. In fact, at the height of the recession, the jobless rate for this group exceeded 23 percent, almost ten percentage points higher than that for those with a high school education. Similarly, the unemployment rate for those Nevadans with at least a Bachelor’s Degree has consistently been the lowest amongst all groups. It peak-ed at just 7.5 percent during the recession.

Information from the CPS allows for an as-sessment of a number of the factors affecting the unemployed in the State – the so-called

April 2016



Economic Summary

Including Discouraged Workers Adds 0.3 Point to the “Offi cial” RateAlternative Measures Of Labor Underutilization

Measure Underutilization Concept Level

Official Ratejobless persons available to take a job who have actively sought work in the past four weeks

6.4%

U-1 jobless 15 weeks or longer 2.7%

U-2 job losers and persons losing a temporary job 3.4%

U-3 similar to official rate 6.5%

U-4 U-3 plus discouraged workers 6.8%

U-5 U-4 plus others marginally attached to the labor force 7.8%

U-6 U-5 plus those employed part-time for economic reasons 13.4%

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization(Annual Average - 2015: IIQ through 2016: IQ)

Official Rate: annual average of 2015:IIQ through 2016:IQ

Switzerland is Nevada’s Top Trading Partner; $2.4B in ExportsNevada’s Top Ten Trading Partners; 2015

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

Australia

United Kingdom

Israel

Japan

Hong Kong

China

Mexico

Canada

India

Switzerland

Millions of U.S. $

“Alternatives Measures.” U-3, the total of un-employed workers as a percentage of the ci-vilian labor force, averaged 6.5 percent over the year ending in 2016:IQ. This is most sim-ilar to the offi cial rate, which measured 6.4 percent over this period. U-4 adds discour-aged workers to U-3, bringing the underuti-lization level to 6.8 percent. Discouraged workers are those individuals who would like to work, but have stopped looking for work because they believe there are no jobs to be fi lled. Marginally attached workers, the ad-dition to U-5, have not searched for work for reasons other than belief that there are no jobs to fi ll, totaling 7.8 percent. Finally, U-6 adds part-time workers (working less than 35 hours per week) who would rather be working full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons including having their hours cut or being un-able to fi nd full-time work. This leads to a U-6 underutilization rate of 13.4 percent. Through the year ending in 2016:IQ, Nevada was within the highest fi ve positions in all mea-sures of Labor Underutilization, except for the U-1 measure, where Nevada ranked 8th.

Since the Alternative Measures have been a hot topic in the media as of late, during the next few months, we will clarify individ-ual aspects of the underutilization mea-sures. In order to more clearly defi ne the U-4 measure of Labor Underutilization, this month we narrow in on discouraged work-ers. Once a person becomes discouraged, they cease to be counted as unemployed, and are no longer considered to be part of the labor force, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPS provides addi-tional data regarding discouraged workers. Based on a 12-month moving average, at the lowest point in December 2006, there were only 1,800 discouraged workers reported in Nevada. By June 2012, the number of dis-couraged workers hit a peak, totaling 17,600 Nevadans. Since the height of the recession, the State has seen a signifi cant decline in the number of discouraged workers, with fi gures coming in at 6,100 in April, a decline of two-thirds from the peak. The number of discouraged workers declined 26.5 percent, down 2,200 persons, from April last year.

This month, we examine the employment/population ratio in Nevada. In general terms, it provides information concerning the ex-

April 2016



Economic Summary

tent to which Nevadans are participating in the labor market. More specifi cally, this measure indicates the proportion of the working-age population that is em-ployed. In March 2007, the employ-ment-population ratio reached a peak of 65.7 percent, with a year-over-year aver-age employment growth of 4.9 percent, while population growth averaged 3.4 percent. At the beginning of 2009, aver-age employment started declining while population continued to increase. The decline in the employment-population ratio reached bottom at 56.6 percent, in March 2011; however, as 2011 drew to a close, both population and employment started growing again. As of April 2016, the population-ratio stands at 58.9 per-cent. The recent uptrend is another in-dicator pointing to positive labor market conditions in the Silver State, but room remains for continued improvement.

State economic development looks to international markets in an on-going ef-fort to diversify the Silver State’s econo-my. The Governor’s Offi ce of Economic Development’s International Division is responsible for the State’s global and strategic engagement. The Division’s four main objectives and initiatives are: (1) enhancing Nevada’s exports; (2) foreign direct investment; (3) global re-cruitment of companies; and (4) foster-ing international partnerships for the Nevada System of Higher Education.

Two months ago, we highlighted the top exports in the Silver State. This month, we identify Nevada’s leading internation-al trade partners, using information from the Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Di-vision. The State’s largest trade partner is Switzerland, totaling $2.4 billion in ex-ports during 2015 – 99 percent of which is primary metal manufactures. Nevada exports to India totaled $1.7 billion in 2015. Primary metal manufactures also accounted for the majority of exports to the State’s second-largest trading part-ner, encompassing 89 percent of trade to India. Nevada’s third-largest trade partner, Canada, equated to $1.3 billion in exports. Computer and electronic products accounted for 26 percent of the State’s exports to this market. Round-

ing out Nevada’s top ten trading partners are: Mexico, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Israel, United Kingdom, and Australia. All told, Nevada’s exports totaled $8.6 billion in 2015. The State’s largest ex-port was primary metal manufactures (e.g. refi ned gold), followed by computer/electronics products, and miscellaneous manufactures (e.g. gaming equipment).

- Chelsea Schmitt, Economist

April 2016



Sub-State Economic Summary

ing a seasonally adjusted 32,900 jobs.

Last month, we analyzed metro area employment over time utilizing timely job estimates generated via the Current Employment Statistics (CES) Program. With data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which pro-vides a complete count of employment (but less timely) based on information provided by employers covered under the State’s Unemployment Insurance System, this month, we assess employ-ment growth for all counties. Statewide, job levels peaked in 2007. Hence, an analysis covering the period since then sheds light the relative performance of all 17 counties over the course of the business cycle, through 2015:IIIQ, the most recent information available.

Nevada’s rural counties experienced the largest gains in total employment since the third quarter of 2007. Specifi cally, the counties with the highest growth are Storey and Esmeralda, both with gains in excess of 75 percent. Lander, with a gain of nearly 25 percent, was the third-fastes growing county in the State.

Although Nevada’s labor market is in recovery, ten of the Silver State’s 17 counties have yet to regain all of the jobs

lost during the most recent recession, at least based upon information through 2015:IIIQ, including the State’s metro areas. Clark employment is down only 11,000 jobs, or -1.2 percent, from pre-re-cession levels.² Washoe has a slightly larger gap in employment over the peri-od, with a disparity of 16,700 jobs, or -7.6 percent. As of 2015:IIIQ, payrolls in the State capital are still down11.9 percent, a total of 3,800 jobs less than 2007:IIIQ. The counties with the most pronounced percentage declines in employment are Mineral (-30.4 percent), Lyon (-14.7 per-cent), and Nye (-14.3 percent). Over-all, State employment remains 2.9 percent below the pre-recessionary high, according to QCEW information.

Over-the-year, online job posting activ-ity³ is up in 11 of 17 counties in April. Washoe job postings increased more than any other county (+800) at 3,900

In April, Statewide employment growth was relatively mild, increasing by a seasonally adjusted 400, relative to March. This translated into mixed results across the Silver State’s met-ropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Las Vegas, the only metro area to realize a seasonally adjusted de-crease this month, is down 100 jobs; the result of a 3,800 job increase in payrolls (not adjusted for seasonali-ty), when an increase of 3,900 jobs was expected. In Reno/Sparks, we expected payrolls to increase by 1,400 jobs; however, jobs actually in-creased by 2,700, leading to a sea-sonally adjusted increase of 1,300 jobs. Finally, Carson City job num-bers were expected to be stagnant, but actually realized an increase of 200 jobs. Consequently, there was a seasonally adjusted increase of 200 jobs this month in the State capital.

This month, the State’s largest pop-ulation centers gained employment on a year-over-year basis. Las Ve-gas was home to the highest nomi-nal growth, 23,600 jobs, an increase of 2.6 percent, relative to April 2015. Specifi cally, goods-producing indus-tries added 6,600 jobs and service providers added 14,000.¹ Perhaps most importantly, job readings in April show that Clark County has regained all of the jobs lost during the recession. Employment peak-ed at 932,500 in 2007. Currently, job levels total 934,700. From the peak in 2007, to the trough in 2010, 134,300 jobs were lost in Las Vegas.

In Reno/Sparks, service provid-ers increased signifi cantly, with a year-over-year increase of 7,600 jobs, and goods-producing em-ployment added 900 jobs to pay-rolls. All told, growth in the Reno/Sparks area totaled 9,200 jobs, up 4.4 percent from April last year. Car-son City was the only MSA to hold steady year-over-year. In the State as a whole, job numbers increased 2.6 percent year-over-year, add-

2007:IIIQ – 2015:IIIQ County Employment Change; QCEW Data

Storey/Esmeralda/Lander Experience Largest Employment Gains Since 2007:IIIQ

¹ References to total MSA employment are adjusted for seasonality, whereas references to goods-producing and service-providing indus-tries are not.² While Current Employment Statistics numbers indicate Las Vegas employment surpassed the all-time high in March and April, QCEW numbers are slightly lagged, and still show a contraction in payrolls between the pre-recessionary high in 2007, and the most recent QCEW data (2015:IIIQ).³ The Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation is a client of Burning Glass Technologies. Among other things, Burning Glass has developed a number of tools to assist a variety of workforce develop-ment entities in efforts to match workers with jobs. Online job posting information is available via their Labor Insight tool.

April 2016



Sub-State Economic Summary

ads, up from 3,100 postings a year ago. Clark also realized signifi cant growth in postings, with an increase of 600 ads, totaling 13,400 postings. Nye, Lincoln, Eureka, Pershing, Es-meralda, and Lander realized over-the-year declines in job postings. Nye de-clined more than any other county, with 50 less postings than in April last year.

This month, the unemployment rates in the State’s metros varied on a month-over-month basis but, decreased year-over-year.� The rate in Las Vegas is up 0.1 percentage point from March, at 6.1 percent, and is down 0.8 percent-age points from last year. Over-the-year, the rate in the Reno/Sparks area decreased 1.2 percentage points, to 5.4 percent, and is down 0.1 percentage point over-the-month. The Carson City MSA rate is down 0.1 percentage point relative to last month, and declined 0.8 percentage point over-the-year, with an unemployment rate of 6.7 percent.

Unemployment rates remain below nine percent in 16 of the Silver State’s 17 counties, in April. Rates ranged from 4.8 percent in White Pine to nine percent in Mineral. In addition to White Pine, relatively low unemployment rates are also found in Elko and Esmer-alda, both with a rate of fi ve percent. The highest unemployment rates, other than Mineral, belong to Lyon (8.3 percent) and Nye (7.9 percent).

4 The Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation is a client of Burning Glass Technologies. Among other things, Burning Glass has developed a number of tools to assist a variety of workforce development entities in efforts to match workers with jobs. Online job posting information is available via their Labor Insight tool.

- Chelsea Schmitt, Economist

April 2016


Nevada Economy In Brief

Trends at a Glance

Industrial Employment

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

'15 '16

percent change

jobs

Jobs Pct. Change

(Year-Over-Year Percent Change; Seasonally Adjusted)Job Growth: Nevada vs. U.S.

Seasonally Adjusted Change Nevada Nonfarm Jobs

Nevada Job Growth(Seasonally Adjusted)

Growth in Nevada has exceeded that in the U.S. for 45 straight months.

U.S. = 1.9 percent

Nevada = 2.6 percent

April

April marks 64 straight months of growth in Nevada.

32,900 jobs added over-the-year

April

Las Vegas seasonally adjusted jobs = -100

Total seasonally adjusted jobs = 400

AprilExpected Seasonally

Unadjusted Seasonal AdjustedChange Movement Change

Total Nonfarm Jobs 6,700 6,300 400 Private Sector 7,400 6,500 900 Public Sector -700 -200 -500Las Vegas 3,800 3,900 -100Reno 2,700 1,400 1,300Carson City 200 0 200

1,283,100 non-farm jobs

Reno seasonally adjusted jobs = 1,300

Carson City seasonally adjusted jobs = 200

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Industrial Employment

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Mining/Logging

Manufacturing

Other Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Financial Activities

Government

Education/Health Services

Professional/Business Services

Construction

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD

Las Vegas Reno Carson City

(Year-to-Date)Job Growth by Industry

(Percent Change)Job Growth by Region

Trade, Transportation/Utilities added 9,100 jobs, more than any other sector.

Nine sectors added jobs through April; mining/logging was the only sector to contract.

Total job growth = 31,200 jobs

April

Carson City = -1.4 percent year-to-date

Las Vegas MSA = 2.5 percent year-to-date

Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.0 percent year-to-date

April

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Unemployment

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

'14 '15 '16

Las Vegas Reno Carson City

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

White PineElko

EsmeraldaEurekaLincoln

WashoeChurchillDouglas

ClarkNevada

HumboldtPershing

Carson CityLanderStorey

NyeLyon

Mineral

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

Unemployment Rate by County

Unemployment Rate by Metro Area

(Seasonally Adjusted)Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S.

Clark = 6.1 percent; Washoe = 5.4 percent; Carson City = 6.7 percent.

Unemployment rates ranged from 9.0 percent (Mineral) to 4.8 percent (White Pine).

April (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Carson City = 6.7 percent; down 0.8 percentage point from April 2015.

Reno-Sparks MSA = 5.4 percent; down 1.2 percentage points from April 2015.

Las Vegas-Paradise MSA = 6.1 percent; down 0.8 percentage point from April 2015.

Nevada = 6.1 percent; down 0.8 percentage point from April 2015.

April (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

0.8 point gap between Nevada and the Nation compares to 4.4 points at the height of the recession.

U.S. = 5.0 percent; unchanged from March; down from 5.4 percent a year ago.

Nevada = 5.8 percent; unchanged from March; down from 6.9 percent a year ago.

April

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Unemployment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Initial Claims 12-Month Moving Average Exhaustion Rate

Nevada Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims and Exhaustion Rate

Exhaustion rate (the percentage of unemployment insurance claimants who exhausted UI benefi ts prior to fi nding a job) = 39.4 percent.

Initial claims = 10,800

April

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Demographics of the Unemployed

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Age 16-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55+

April 2016 April 2015

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

White Black Hispanic


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Male Female


Unemployment Rate by Gender(12-Month Moving Average)

Unemployment Rate by Ethnicity(12-Month Moving Average)

Unemployment Rate by Age Group(12-Month Moving Average)

Age 55+ unemployment rate = 5.6 percent; un-changed from March; up 0.2 percentage point from a year ago.

Age 45-54 unemployment rate = 6.3 percent; up 0.2 percentage point from March; up 0.8 percentage point from a year ago.

Age 35-44 unemployment rate = Five percent; down 0.3 percentage point from March; down

1.8 percentage points from a year ago.

Age 25-34 unemployment rate = 6.0 percent; up 0.2 percentage point from March; down 1.6 percentage point froms a year ago.

Age 16-24 unemployment rate = 11.8 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from March; down two percent-age points from a year ago.

April

Hispanic unemployment rate = 8.1 percent; up 0.2 percentage point from March, up 0.9 percentage point from a year ago.

Black unemployment rate = 9.3 percent; down 0.9 percentage point from March; down seven percentage points from a year ago.

White unemployment rate = six percent; unchanged from March; down 0.9 percentage point from a year ago.

April

Female unemployment rate = 6.6 percent; down 0.1 percentage point from March; down 1.1 percentage points from a year ago.

Male unemployment rate = 6.3 percent; up 0.1 percentage point from March; down 1.2 percentage points from a year ago.

April

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Demographics of the Unemployed

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%


Unemployment Rate by Veterans’ Status(12-Month Moving Average)

Veteran unemployment rate = 6.2 percent; down 0.1 percentage point from March; down 0.7 percentage point from a year ago.

April

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Economic Indicators

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Gaming Win 12-Month Moving Average

2,500,000

2,700,000

2,900,000

3,100,000

3,300,000

3,500,000

3,700,000

3,900,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Visitor Volume 12-Month Moving Average

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Taxable Sales 12-Month Moving Average

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Taxable Sales 12-Month Moving Average

Las Vegas Visitor Volume

(Millions of Dollars)Statewide Taxable Sales

Nevada Gross Gaming Win(Millions of Dollars)

105,800 visitor increase from prior year (+2.9 percent); up 3.5 percent year-to-date over 2015.

3,730,400 visitors

March

Up 5.1 percent year-over-year

Taxable sales = $4.03 billion

February

Down 3.0 percent year-over-year; up 0.6 percent year-to date over 2015.

Gross gaming win = $922.3 million

March

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Economic Indicators

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Visitor Volume 12-Month Moving Average

Reno Visitor Volume

36,000 visitor increase from prior year (9.7 percent); up 3.4 percent year-to-date over 2015.

408,900 visitors

March

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Real-Time Labor Market Information

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployed Per Posting 12-Month Moving Average

0% 5% 10% 15%

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education

Registered Nurses

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Managers, All Other

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, ExceptTechnical and Scientific Products

Human Resources Specialists

Software Developers, Applications

Medical and Health Services Managers

Computer Occupations, All Other

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Job Openings Rate 12-Month Moving Average

Unemployed per Online Job Posting

Job Openings Rate

Occupations with Above Average WagesJob Openings Rates for Online Postings

Jobs became available at a rate of 1.46 percent, indicating employment prospects are trending up.

April

For every job posting there are 4.2 unemployed persons, down from 5.9 in April 2015.

April

The job openings rate is the ratio of the number of online job postings to the sum of job postings and employment.

For occupations earning above-average wages, Computer Occupations, All Others have the high-est job openings rate.

April

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

Real-Time Labor Market Information: Spotlight on Nevada

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

Secretaries/Administrative Assistants, exceptLegal/Medical/Executive

General Maintenance and Repair Workers

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation/Serving Workers

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

All Other Managers

Customer Service Representatives

Retail Salespersons

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Sales Representatives for Wholesale/ Manufacturing,except Technical/Scientific Products

Registered Nurses

Job Postings

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Executive, Legislative, and General GovernmentSupport

Specialized Freight Trucking

Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools

Gambling Industries

Business Support Services

Restaurants and Other Eating Places

Insurance Carriers

Elementary and Secondary Schools

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals

Traveler Accommodation

Job Postings

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Job Postings 12-Month Moving Average

Top Occupations in Demand

Top Industries

Nevada Job Postings

The top occupations in demand are registered nurses, followed by Sales Representatives.

April

The industries with the most postings are traveler accommodation and general medical/surgical hospitals.

April

Nevada online job postings total 20,000; up from 18,300 a year ago.

April

April 2016



Trends at a Glance

CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

'78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Recessions Coincident Index

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Recessions Leading Index

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Recessions Leading Index

CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident Employment Index

CBER-DETR Nevada Leading Employment Index

For the leading index, commercial permits construction employment, the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), the real Moody’s Baa bond rate (inverted), and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) moved in a positive direction while only housing permits moved in a negative direction.

For the leading index, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), housing permits, the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), construction employ-ment, commercial permits, and the real Moody’s Baa bond rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction.

The Nevada Leading Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy, providing a signal about the future direction of the coincident index. For the current employment recession, the leading in-dex provided a clear signal by peaking in January 2006, fourteen months before the coincident index reached its peak, and reached a bottom in May 2009, fi ve months before the coincident index reached its bottom.

March

For the coincident index, nonfarm employment, the insured unemployment rate (inverted), and household employment moved in a positive direction while the unemployment rate (inverted) moved in a negative direction.

The March release tells a positive story for both the co-incident and leading indexes on a year-over-year basis. For the coincident index, the unemployment rate (invert-ed), household employment, nonfarm employment, and the insured unemployment rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction..

The Nevada Coincident Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy using an index of employment variables. The peak of the last employment cycle in Nevada occurred in March 2007. The coincident index then regressed steadily through October 2009, where it bottomed out.

March

April 2016


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Economy In Brief

Christopher Robison, Supervising Economist

Research & Analysis Bureau

Phone: (775) 684-0450Fax: (775) 684-0342E-mail: [email protected]

The Nevada Economy in Brief provides a wealth of Nevada workforce and economic information and is published monthly by the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation / Research and Analysis Bureau. Mate-rial contained in this publication is produced in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor (the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Employment and Training Administration) and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Reha-bilitation. For additional workforce or other economic infor-mation, a free subscription to the Nevada Economy in Brief, or to change your e-mail address, please contact the Research and Analysis Bureau.

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Documents

Economy In Brieff April 2016epubs.nsla.nv.gov/statepubs/epubs/497823-2016-04.pdfWashoe County -0.1% Nevada 5.1% Clark County 3.7% Washoe County 20.5% 1.9% UNEMPLOYMENT RATES April