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EconomicsCAFI II Stage Gate Review
Denver, COMay 1, 2007
Tim Eggeman* - Neoterics InternationalRichard Elander - National Renewable Energy Laboratory
NEOTERICS INTERNATIONALUsing Technology to Create Business Innovation
2
Boiler+
Generator
Block Flow
Hydrolysis+
Fermentation
FeedHandling RecoveryPretreatmentStover
Syrup +Solids
Chemicals Water
Enzymes CO2 Water
EtOH
Steam
Power
3
Aspen Plus – GUI w/ Hierarchy
4
Aspen Plus – GUI w/ Hierarchy
5
Current vs. Goal Cases
• Current: Laboratory Performance– Pretreatment– Conditioning– Enzymatic Hydrolysis– Fermentation
• Goal: Likely Performance of Above Steps at Commercial Scale
6
Solicit Guidance from CAFI Advisory Board
• Enzymes– Loading– Type– Cost basis
• Fermentation– Conditioning– Concentration
basis– Scale up of lab
data
• Pretreatment Configuration– Reactor cost– Chemical
recovery– Consistent
basis for improvements
7
CAFI 2 vs. CAFI 1
• Poplar vs. Stover
• Improved Definition and Consistency of Modeling Assumptions
• Improved/Tailored Enzyme Cocktails
• Conditioning & Fermentability Tests
8
Economic ModelingCapital Costs
Fixed - Direct Purchased Equipment Installation - Indirect - Contingency - Start-up
Working
Revenues
Ethanol SalesElectricity Sales
Operating Costs
Variable – Stover Enzymes Other
Fixed - Labor Maintenance Insurance Depreciation
Discounted Cash Flow
2.5 yr Construction, 0.5 yr Start-up 20 yr Operation100% Equity, No Subsidy
Rational EtOH Pricing Rather Than Market Pricing10% Real After Tax Discount Rate
Performance Measures
Total Fixed Capital Per Annual Gallon of CapacityPlant Level Cash Costs
Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP)
9
MESP, $/gal
Stover PoplarCurrent Goal Current Goal
Ideal Pretreatment 1.49 0.81 1.42 0.77
Acidic
Neutral pH
Alkaline
No Pretreatment 12.86 7.84 36.73 19.63
Results (Interim)
10
Fixed Capital
Water Treatment$1.3MM
Storage$1.9MM
Steam & Power$39.1MM
Other Utilities$4.5MMOther OSBL
$4.9MM
Feed Handling$7.5MM
Fermentation$9.5MM
Recovery$22.6MM
Start-Up$13.5MM
Project Contingency$2.7MM
Home Office &Construction Fee
$22.9MM
Field Expenses$18.3MM
Total Fixed Direct Fixed
$MMDirects 91.3Indirects 57.4Total 148.7
Stover Goal, Ideal Pretreatment
11
Cash Costs and MESP
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Ideal Acidic Neutral Alkaline No Pretreatment
Net Feed Other Variable Fixed w/o Depreciation Depreciation Income Tax Return on Capital
Stover Current Cases, Proof Year: 4th Year of Operation$/gal EtOH
MESP
CashCostPlantLevel
12
Conclusions
• Consistent Protocols and Materials
• Improved Methodology vs. CAFI I
• Yield Drives Economics
13
Acknowledgements• US Department of Energy Office of the Biomass
Program, Contract DE-FG36-04GO14017
• The National Renewable Energy Laboratory
• Biomass Refining Consortium for Applied Fundamentals and Innovation (CAFI)
• Natural Resources Canada
• Genencor International
14
Project Institutions
15
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Total Complex Carbohydrate, wt%
Feedstocks
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Total Complex Carbohydrate, wt%
CAFI I & IIStover
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Total Complex Carbohydrate, wt%
CAFI I & IIStover
CAFI IIPoplar
(Both)
16
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Lignin, wt%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Lignin, wt%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Lignin, wt%
CAFI IIStover
CAFI IStover
Feedstocks
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Ag Residues
Energy Crops
Lignin, wt%
CAFI IIStover
CAFI IStover
CAFI IIPoplar
CAFI IIPoplar
(Small Batch)