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March 8, 2012
Research Department
[email protected]
Economic Worksheet
of
Pakistan
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
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* = Projections
Standard Capital Research
Standard Capital ResearchSource: www.sbp.org.pk
www.finance.gov.pk (economic survey)
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 (to date)
Forex Reserves ($bn) 13.12 15.65 11.40 12.43 16.75 18.24
16.42
M2 (PKRmn) 3,406,905 4,065,155 4,689,143 5,137,205 5,777,234
6,555,481 6,847,063
GDP (PKRbn)
Commodity Producing Sector
Agriculture 1,092.098 1,137.037 1,148.851 1,195.002 1,201.945
1,216.523
Industry 1,256.827 1,367.532 1,387.117 1,385.669 1,500.345
1,499.360
2,348.925 2,504.569 2,535.968 2,580.671 2,702.290 2,715.883
Service Sector 2,511.551 2,687.140 2,847.044 2,895.045 2,979.241
3,101.523
Real GDP at constant prices 4,860.476 5,191.709 5,383.012
5,475.716 5,681.531 5,817.406
GDP Growth (constant prices) 5.8% 6.8% 3.7% 1.7% 3.8% 2.4%
3.8-4.0%*
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 4.3% 4.3% 7.6% 5.2% 6.3% 6.0%
5-5.5%*
Economic Indicators
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
FY12
(to
date)growth in M2 15.1% 19.3% 15.3% 9.6% 12.5% 13.5% 4.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
%
Growth in M2
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E
Fiscal Deficit relationship with GDP
GDP Growth Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
http://www.sbp.org.pk/http://www.finance.gov.pk/http://www.finance.gov.pk/http://www.finance.gov.pk/http://www.sbp.org.pk/
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FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 to date
Inflation CPI %
General 7.9 7.8 12.0 20.8 11.7 13.9 10.8Food 6.9 10.3 17.6 23.7
12.5 18.0 11.3
Non Food 8.6 6.0 7.9 18.4 11.1 10.5 10.4
Balance of Payments (US $mn)
Ex ports 16,553 17,278 20,427 19,121 19,673 25,461 14,100
Imports (24,994) (26,989) (35,397) (31,747) (31,209) (35,637)
(23,157)
Trade Balance (8,441) (9,711) (14,970) (12,626) (11,536)
(10,176) (9,057)
Current A/c ($ mn) (4,991) (6,878) (13,874) (9,251) (3,946) 542
(2,633)
Home Remittances ($ mn) 4,600 5,494 6,451 7,811 8,837 11,201
7,436
Total Domestic Debt (PKRbn) 2,336.8 2,610.3 3,274.6 3,860.7
4,654.0 6,017.0 6,970.0
Total External Debt (US $bn) 35.9 39.0 44.5 50.7 57.4 61.8
61.1
Net Foreign Investment (US $bn) 8.43 5.48 2.67 2.09 1.92
0.45
Source: www.sbp.org.pk www.finance.gov.pk (economic survey)
www.statpak.gov.pk/
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 to
date
CPIGeneral Food Non Food
Standard Capital Research
Standard Capital Research
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
CPI Period AveragesFY11 FY12
http://www.sbp.org.pk/http://www.finance.gov.pk/http://www.finance.gov.pk/http://www.statpak.gov.pk/http://www.sbp.org.pk/http://www.finance.gov.pk/http://www.statpak.gov.pk/http://www.statpak.gov.pk/http://www.finance.gov.pk/http://www.sbp.org.pk/
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Standard Capital Research
16.35
16.85
17.35
17.85
18.35
5-Feb-11 5-Apr-11 5-Jun-11 5-Aug-11 5-Oct-11 5-Dec-11
5-Feb-12
$
b
i
l
l
i
o
n
Forex Reserves (weekly trend)
Total Liquid Forex Reserves $ bn
Standard Capital Research
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Exports (US $mn) 16,553 17,278 20,427 19,121 19,673 25,461
Imports (US $mn) 24,994 26,989 35,397 31,747 31,209 35,637
Trade Balance (US $mn) (8,441) (9 ,711 ) (14,9 70) (12,626 )
(11,536) (10,176)
(20,000)
(10,000)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
US$mn
Imports and Exports
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 to date
Industry Growth %
Commodity Producing Sector 5.1 6.6 1.3 0.8 3.6 0.5%
Agriculture 6.3 4.1 1 4 2 1.2%
Manufacturing 8.7 8.3 4.8 -3.7 5.2 -0.1%
Services Sector 6.5 7 6 1.6 4.6 4.1%
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Standard Capital Research
Standard Capital Research
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12
FY11
Kibor (6m) Discount rate CPI (YoY)
FY12
11.40
11.90
12.40
12.90
13.40
Yield Curve
2-Feb-12
9-Feb-12
20-Feb-12
29-Feb-12
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Research Team:
Head of Research: Syed Faisal Shaji
Database: M. Naseem Alam
Address:
Standard Capital Securities (Pvt.) Ltd.
Room No. 78 & 79 Karachi Stock Exchange Building,
I.I Chundrigar Road, Karachi - Pakistan.
Call us @ 111 111 721 | Ext. 108
Telephone No # 009221 32410942
or email your query at [email protected] or
[email protected]
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by Standard Capital Securities
(Pvt) Ltd and is provided for information purposes only. The
information and data on which
this report is based are obtained from sources which we believe
to be reliable but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or
complete. Standard Capital
Securities (Pvt) Ltd accepts no responsibility whatsoever for
any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of
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