Economic Update Handout 2019 - Wild Apricottngfoa.wildapricot.org/resources/Documents/2019... · Median Weekly Earnings ($) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Opioid Prescribing Rate

10/7/2019

1

Larry Kessler, Ph.D.

Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee

The U.S. economy has now enjoyed 10 years of economic growth since the Great Recession◦ Real GDP grew by 2.0% in 2019Q2 3.1% growth in 2019Q1

◦ Nonfarm employment increased by 2.7 million jobs in 2018.◦ Unemployment rate of 3.5% in September

2019Q1 3.1%

‐10.0

‐8.0

‐6.0

‐4.0

‐2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2000:12001:12002:12003:12004:12005:12006:12007:12008:12009:12010:12011:12012:12013:12014:12015:12016:12017:12018:12019:1

Percentage

Chan

ge, Previous Quarter SA

AR

2019Q2 2.0%

9 year avg2.3%

2018Q2 3.5%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2018Q4 1.1%

1

2

3

10/7/2019

2

‐3.0

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Percentage chan

ge

20202.0%

20192.3%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Markit

20212.0%

William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.edu

September11, 2018

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Percentage chan

ge

20183.0%

2009-1.6%


4

5

6

10/7/2019

3

‐25.0

‐20.0

‐15.0

‐10.0

‐5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Percentage chan

ge

2009-21.2%

20185.1%



‐$80,000

‐$70,000

‐$60,000

‐$50,000

‐$40,000

‐$30,000

‐$20,000

‐$10,000

$0

Millions of dollars

Jun-19-$55.2b

7.878

4.866

2.5041.945

1.366

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Canada Mexico China Japan Netherlands

Exports (billions of U.S. d

ollars)

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration.

7

8

9

10/7/2019

4

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029

William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.edu

Source: IHS

2004, $413

2009, $1,416

2018, $779

2019, $1,038

2024, $1,120

2029, $1,457

2.112.28

2.472.64

2.752.86

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

3‐Months 6‐Months 1‐Year 2‐Years 5‐Years 10‐Years

Interest rate, in

percent

August 30, 2018

U.S. Treasury Department

2.112.28

2.472.64

2.752.86

1.99 1.891.76

1.51.39

1.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

3‐Months 6‐Months 1‐Year 2‐Years 5‐Years 10‐Years

Interest rate, in

percent

August 30, 2018 August 30, 2019

U.S. Treasury Department

10

11

12

10/7/2019

5

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Millions of units

200910.4

201816.8

Source: IHS Global Markit

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Trillions of dollars

Student

Other

Mortgage

2003Q4$5.7T

2008Q3$9.3T

2019Q2$9.4T

Source: New York Fed

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Student

Other

Mortgage

2003Q42.2T

2019Q22.9T


13

14

15

10/7/2019

6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Student

Other

Mortgage

2003Q4$253B

2019Q2$1.5T


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts (millions)

Units of Existing Homes (m

illions)

Exist. House Sales Housing Starts

20185.3

20181.2

Source: IHS Global Markit

TNAug - 19

1.5%

U.S.Aug-19

1.4%

‐8

‐6

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

Percentage change, same month last yea

r

TN U.S.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16

17

18

10/7/2019

7

108

277

196227

312

56

153

216

62

178 166 168136

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Employm

ent (thousands)

154k new jobs per month


2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

Employm

ent (thousands) Dec-07

2,805.6

Aug-193,115.6

Dec-092,590.9


90.1%

95.1%

97.1%

104.0%

104.5%

111.0%

113.6%

115.2%

123.3%

127.8%

128.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0%

Information

Mining, Logging, Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, Transportation, Utilities

Government

Total Nonfarm

Other Services

Financial Activities

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

Leisure & Hospitality

William F. Fox • http://cber.haslam.utk.edu Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

19

20

21

10/7/2019

8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Unem

ploym

ent Rate (%

)

TN U.S.

TNJun-0911.1%

U.S.Oct-0910.0%

U.S.Aug-19

3.7%

TNAug-19

3.5%


2.7% to 3.7%3.8% to 4.7%4.8% to 5.7%5.8% to 6.5%

Tennessee: 3.7%United States: 3.6%

Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

Jul‐00 Jul‐01 Jul‐02 Jul‐03 Jul‐04 Jul‐05 Jul‐06 Jul‐07 Jul‐08 Jul‐09 Jul‐10 Jul‐11 Jul‐12 Jul‐13 Jul‐14 Jul‐15 Jul‐16 Jul‐17 Jul‐18 Jul‐19

Participation Rate (%

)

U.S. TN

TN62.2%

U.S63.0%


22

23

24

10/7/2019

9

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

Per Capita Personal In

come ($) TN

$48,658

S.E Avg.$49,051

U.S. Avg.$56,541


Less than $30,000$30,000 to $45,517$45,518 to $51,640Greater than $51,640

Tennessee: $45,517United States: $51,640


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Heart attack Coronary heartdisease

Stroke Diabetes Skin cancer Other types ofcancer

Kidney disease Depression

Percentage ever told had hea

lth issue by a

doctor (%

)

TN U.S.

Source: Center for Disease Control & Prevention, BRFSS, 2017

25

26

27

10/7/2019

10

Bachelor’s degree or higherHigh school graduates or higher

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

83.2

84.9

86.5

85.4

86.3

87.3

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

86.0

87.0

88.0

2011 2014 2017

Percentage

of population age

d 25 yea

rs and older

TN

U.S.

22.7 23.825.4

27.9 28.830.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2011 2014 2017

Percentage

of population age

d 25 yea

rs and older

1.6

1.5

2.1

2.2

2.8

3.7

4.1

5.6

0 2 4 6 8 10

Doctoral degree

Professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college, no degree

High school diploma

Less than a high schooldiploma

Unemployment Rate (%)

$1,743

$1,836

$1,401

$1,173

$836

$774

$712

$520

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000

Doctoral degree

Professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college, nodegree

High school diploma

Less than a high schooldiploma

Median Weekly Earnings ($)


Opioid Prescribing Rate by State: 2017

Less than 52.052.0 to 65.966.0 to 80.0Greater than 80.0

Number of Prescriptions per 100 People

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

28

29

30

10/7/2019

11

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Centers for Disease Control & Prevention

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Labor force participation rate (%

)

Per capita opioid prescriptions

Opioids LF Participation Rate

Source: Tennessee Department of Health, Controlled Substance Monitoring Database.

Thank [email protected]

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