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Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A. October 2011 / Updated March 2013

Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

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Page 1: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued

Decline

The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States

Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A.October 2011 / Updated March 2013

Page 2: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 3: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 4: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

STRESS STRESS STRESS STRESS STRESS STRESS

Page 5: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 6: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

“GDP is defined as the value of all goods and services produced within the geographic territory of an economy in a given interval, such as a year.”

Page 7: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 8: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 9: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 10: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 11: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 12: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 13: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Where We Are Today

Page 14: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Unemployment

Page 15: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Unemployment

Page 16: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Unemployment

Page 17: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Unemployed Without Benefits

Page 18: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Under-employment

Page 19: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Household Median Income

Page 20: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Elderly Poor

Page 21: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Elderly Poor

Page 22: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

"Our rolls are swelling. There are more and more people on our rolls, there are more and more people in need of our services. The other side these numbers don't tell is the fact that seniors in this country are going hungry."

Hunger in America

Enid Borden, head of Meals on Wheels Association states:

Page 23: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Living Paycheck-to-Paycheck

Page 24: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Property Foreclosures

Source: RealtyTrac – Foreclosure Market Report

Page 25: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Property Foreclosures

Page 26: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 27: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Is Social Security Secure?

Page 28: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

The Big Question

Page 29: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Savings Deficit

Page 30: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Creditworthiness of Americans

Page 31: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Asset and Wealth

Ownership

Page 32: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Child Poverty

Page 33: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Skyrocketing National Debt:

Soon to Exceed our Ability to Service?

Page 34: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

What ECONOMISTS are Telling Us

Paul Krugman

Joseph Stiglitz

Mark Zandi

Page 35: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Mark Zandi

Page 36: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

“Most tax expenditures are also inefficient and regressive. The mortgage interest deduction, for example, does nothing to improve housing affordability, its ostensible goal. Any tax benefit is simply capitalized into house prices, which rise as the deduction fuels demand. And the benefits go to owners of bigger homes with larger mortgages and higher incomes, who can itemize and thus claim the deduction.”

Page 37: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Paul Krugman

Page 38: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

“[W]e shouldn't even be talking about spending cuts at all now. We have 9 percent unemployment. These spending cuts are going to worsen unemployment. That's even going to hurt the long-run fiscal picture because we have a situation where more and more people are becoming permanent long-term unemployed.”

Page 39: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Joseph Stiglitz

Page 40: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Repeal tax-cuts for rich Americans.

End wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that cost trillions of dollars.

Increase stimulus and programs that would get Americans back to work

Within Medicare, allow the government to negotiate prices with the pharmaceuticals, which would save the U.S. trillions.

Page 41: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors

NAR Board Room

Page 42: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors -- 2007

“The steady improvement in [home] sales will support price appreciation ... [despite] all the wild projections by academics, Wall Street analysts, and others in the media.”

Page 43: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Alan Greenspan

Page 44: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

“I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms.”

Page 45: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

How Can We Get Out of

This Terrible Mess?

Page 46: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

A Plan

Page 47: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Tax Woes

Page 48: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 49: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

SIMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE TAX REFORM

Page 50: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

All other deductions and exemptions would be

eliminated

Page 51: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 52: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Fully amortizing

Page 53: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A
Page 54: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Public investment in infrastructure + population growth = rising land values

Page 55: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A

Fred Foldvary

Page 56: Economic Stagnation and the Prospect of Continued Decline The Evidence for a Catastrophic Depression Occurring in the United States Edward J. Dodson, M.L.A