16
Economic Overview Finger Lakes January 10, 2019 Contact: [email protected]

Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Economic Overview

Finger Lakes

January 10, 2019

Contact: [email protected]

Page 2: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

2

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE .................................................................................................................................................................... 3

EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5

WAGE TRENDS .................................................................................................................................................................................... 6

COST OF LIVING INDEX ....................................................................................................................................................................... 7

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT ......................................................................................................................................................................... 8

OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT ................................................................................................................................................................. 10

INDUSTRY CLUSTERS ........................................................................................................................................................................ 12

EDUCATION LEVELS .......................................................................................................................................................................... 13

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ............................................................................................................................................................ 14

REGION DEFINITION ......................................................................................................................................................................... 15

FAQ ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16

Page 3: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

3

Demographic Profile The population in the Finger Lakes was 1,217,554 per American Community Survey data for 2012-2016.

The region has a civilian labor force of 627,667 with a participation rate of 63.4%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the

Finger Lakes, 33.1% have a bachelor’s degree or higher which compares with 31.8% in the nation.

The median household income in the Finger Lakes is $53,418 and the median house value is $131,591.

Summary1

Percent Value

Finger Lakes New York USA Finger Lakes New York USA

Demographics

Population (ACS) — — — 1,217,554 19,697,457 318,558,162

Male 49.0% 48.5% 49.2% 596,714 9,555,130 156,765,322

Female 51.0% 51.5% 50.8% 620,840 10,142,327 161,792,840

Median Age2 — — — 40.1 38.2 37.7

Under 18 Years 21.2% 21.5% 23.1% 258,188 4,226,409 73,612,438

18 to 24 Years 10.5% 10.0% 9.8% 127,536 1,966,965 31,296,577

25 to 34 Years 12.7% 14.4% 13.6% 154,740 2,831,379 43,397,907

35 to 44 Years 11.3% 12.7% 12.7% 137,900 2,501,802 40,548,400

45 to 54 Years 14.5% 14.1% 13.6% 177,124 2,780,247 43,460,466

55 to 64 Years 13.7% 12.7% 12.6% 167,093 2,496,854 40,061,742

65 to 74 Years 9.0% 8.1% 8.3% 109,023 1,600,042 26,355,308

75 Years, and Over 7.1% 6.6% 6.2% 85,950 1,293,759 19,825,324

Race: White 82.4% 64.3% 73.3% 1,003,777 12,667,413 233,657,078

Race: Black or African American 10.7% 15.6% 12.6% 130,343 3,073,278 40,241,818

Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 4,803 75,751 2,597,817

Race: Asian 2.5% 8.1% 5.2% 30,914 1,599,216 16,614,625

Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 423 7,528 560,021

Race: Some Other Race 1.6% 8.6% 4.8% 18,904 1,697,831 15,133,856

Race: Two or More Races 2.3% 2.9% 3.1% 28,390 576,440 9,752,947

Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 6.4% 18.6% 17.3% 78,095 3,661,929 55,199,107

Population Growth

Population (Pop Estimates)5 — — — 1,210,895 19,849,399 325,719,178

Population Annual Average Growth5 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 94 71,706 2,448,797

Economic

Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years

and over) 63.4% 63.4% 63.3% 627,667 10,100,102 159,807,099

Armed Forces Labor Force 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 298 22,976 1,011,641

Veterans, Age 18-64 4.4% 2.8% 5.1% 33,656 352,446 10,165,671

Veterans Labor Force Participation Rate and Size, Age 18-64 75.2% 73.4% 75.4% 25,295 258,588 7,664,089

Median Household Income2 — — — $53,418 $60,741 $55,322

Per Capita Income — — — $28,889 $34,212 $29,829

Poverty Level (of all people) 13.9% 15.5% 15.1% 163,020 2,967,564 46,932,225

Households Receiving Food Stamps 13.8% 15.4% 13.0% 66,637 1,118,434 15,360,951

Mean Commute Time (minutes) — — — 21.4 32.6 26.1

Commute via Public Transportation 2.1% 28.0% 5.1% 12,068 2,564,874 7,476,312

Educational Attainment, Age 25-64

Page 4: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

4

Summary1

Percent Value

Finger Lakes New York USA Finger Lakes New York USA

No High School Diploma 8.5% 12.1% 11.6% 54,200 1,285,695 19,478,050

High School Graduate 26.2% 24.6% 26.1% 166,898 2,613,737 43,788,541

Some College, No Degree 18.6% 16.7% 21.5% 118,623 1,773,564 36,025,193

Associate's Degree 13.6% 9.5% 8.9% 86,419 1,004,657 14,962,488

Bachelor's Degree 18.8% 21.6% 20.2% 119,622 2,294,701 33,845,524

Postgraduate Degree 14.3% 15.4% 11.6% 91,095 1,637,928 19,368,719

Housing

Total Housing Units — — — 535,029 8,191,568 134,054,899

Median House Value (of owner-occupied units)2 — — — $131,591 $286,300 $184,700

Homeowner Vacancy 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 3,818 68,170 1,395,797

Rental Vacancy 5.8% 4.3% 6.2% 9,738 152,914 2,855,844

Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 32.2% 46.4% 36.4% 155,793 3,371,574 42,835,169

Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied

Units) 10.1% 29.2% 9.0% 48,827 2,123,991 10,562,847

Social

Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 15,373 265,194 4,433,703

Disconnected Youth4 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2,072 30,030 485,589

Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 38.1% 35.4% 34.7% 93,856 1,428,780 24,318,038

With a Disability, Age 18-64 11.0% 8.7% 10.3% 82,893 1,082,491 20,188,257

With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 39.9% 38.9% 41.0% 33,049 420,792 8,278,834

Foreign Born 6.3% 22.6% 13.2% 76,925 4,442,247 42,194,354

Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 3.8% 13.5% 8.5% 43,470 2,494,711 25,440,956

Union Membership

Total3 18.5% 23.5% 10.7% — — —

Private Sector3 9.5% 14.9% 6.4% — — —

Manufacturing3 8.3% 12.6% 8.7% — — —

Public Sector3 67.0% 73.0% 35.1% — — —

Source: JobsEQ® 1. American Community Survey 2012-2016, unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 3. 2017; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Disconnected Youth are 16-19 year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 5. Census 2017, annual average growth rate since 2007

Page 5: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

5

Employment Trends As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over

the year ending 2018Q3, employment increased 0.9% in the region.

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2018Q1

with preliminary estimates updated to 2018Q3.

Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Finger Lakes was 3.9% as of November 2018. The regional

unemployment rate was the same as the national rate of 3.9%. One year earlier, in November 2017, the

unemployment rate in the Finger Lakes was 5.2%.

Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through November 2018.

Page 6: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

6

Wage Trends The average worker in the Finger Lakes earned annual wages of $48,740 as of 2018Q3. Average annual wages per

worker increased 2.7% in the region over the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average

wages were $55,994 in the nation as of 2018Q3.

Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are

updated through 2018Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2018Q3.

Page 7: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

7

Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages

and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 2.4% lower in Finger Lakes

than the U.S. average.

Cost of Living Information

Annual Average Salary

Cost of Living Index

(Base US) US Purchasing Power

Finger Lakes $48,740 97.6 $49,935

New York $72,431 139.7 $51,830

USA $55,994 100.0 $55,994

Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2018Q3 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2018q3, imputed by Chmura where necessary.

Page 8: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

8

Industry Snapshot The largest sector in the Finger Lakes is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 96,896 workers. The next-

largest sectors in the region are Educational Services (75,478 workers) and Manufacturing (64,837). High location

quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national

average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Educational Services (LQ = 1.57), Manufacturing (1.34),

and Management of Companies and Enterprises (1.18).

Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2018Q1

with preliminary estimates updated to 2018Q3.

Sectors in the Finger Lakes with the highest average wages per worker are Management of Companies and

Enterprises ($105,332), Utilities ($103,271), and Finance and Insurance ($81,137). Regional sectors with the best job

growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Health Care and Social Assistance (+8,054 jobs),

Educational Services (+4,075), and Accommodation and Food Services (+3,221).

Over the next 10 years, employment in the Finger Lakes is projected to contract by 1,003 jobs. The fastest growing

sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +0.9% year-over-year rate of growth.

The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+8,945

jobs), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+1,534), and Administrative and Support and Waste

Management and Remediation Services (+1,525).

Page 9: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

9

Current 5-Year History 10-Year Forecast

Four Quarters Ending with 2018q3 Total

Change Avg Ann %

Chg in Empl Separations

(Approximate) ---Growth---

NAICS Industry Empl Avg Ann

Wages LQ Empl Region Total New

Demand Exits Transfers Empl Avg Ann

Rate

11 Agriculture, Forestry,

Fishing and Hunting 9,414 $38,910 1.16 566 1.2% 9,315 4,267 5,602 -554 -0.6%

21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil

and Gas Extraction 724 $50,938 0.29 174 5.6% 580 223 459 -102 -1.5%

22 Utilities 1,942 $103,271 0.63 -43 -0.4% 1,747 633 1,117 -2 0.0%

23 Construction 26,387 $55,692 0.79 2,671 2.2% 27,764 9,507 16,991 1,266 0.5%

31 Manufacturing 64,837 $64,020 1.34 -2,579 -0.8% 53,447 23,173 39,556 -9,283 -1.5%

42 Wholesale Trade 17,955 $71,086 0.80 2 0.0% 17,747 6,963 11,513 -729 -0.4%

44 Retail Trade 62,895 $28,490 1.01 -1,487 -0.5% 79,683 36,277 45,890 -2,484 -0.4%

48 Transportation and

Warehousing 16,836 $44,960 0.65 1,793 2.3% 17,190 7,520 10,089 -419 -0.3%

51 Information 8,879 $67,680 0.77 -322 -0.7% 6,899 2,930 5,128 -1,158 -1.4%

52 Finance and Insurance 15,922 $81,137 0.69 -91 -0.1% 15,453 5,771 9,348 333 0.2%

53 Real Estate and Rental and

Leasing 8,933 $48,885 0.89 -28 -0.1% 8,872 4,113 4,892 -134 -0.2%

54 Professional, Scientific,

and Technical Services 31,050 $69,453 0.80 2,255 1.5% 28,704 10,152 17,018 1,534 0.5%

55 Management of

Companies and Enterprises 10,268 $105,332 1.18 -2,134 -3.7% 9,216 3,433 5,824 -41 0.0%

56

Administrative and

Support and Waste

Management and

Remediation Services

32,362 $39,032 0.85 1,695 1.1% 39,654 16,181 21,948 1,525 0.5%

61 Educational Services 75,478 $53,535 1.57 4,075 1.1% 71,320 33,789 36,382 1,149 0.2%

62 Health Care and Social

Assistance 96,896 $45,016 1.16 8,054 1.8% 103,883 46,654 48,285 8,945 0.9%

71 Arts, Entertainment, and

Recreation 10,874 $21,084 0.93 164 0.3% 15,564 6,900 8,464 200 0.2%

72 Accommodation and Food

Services 44,196 $19,148 0.84 3,221 1.5% 72,080 31,777 39,995 308 0.1%

81 Other Services (except

Public Administration) 21,733 $28,292 0.85 -1,706 -1.5% 24,466 11,223 13,366 -123 -0.1%

92 Public Administration 28,471 $55,849 1.03 80 0.1% 24,347 10,852 14,729 -1,233 -0.4%

99 Unclassified 772 $36,445 0.76 124 3.6% 868 367 502 -1 0.0%

Total - All Industries 586,825 $48,740 1.00 16,483 0.6% 638,273 273,792 365,484 -1,003 0.0%

Source: JobsEQ® Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2018Q1

with preliminary estimates updated to 2018Q3. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns.

Page 10: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

10

Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in the Finger Lakes is Office and Administrative Support Occupations, employing

86,518 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related Occupations (57,573

workers) and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (46,892). High location quotients (LQs) indicate

occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The

major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Education, Training, and Library Occupations (LQ = 1.41),

Community and Social Service Occupations (1.24), and Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations (1.21).

Occupation groups in the Finger Lakes with the highest average wages per worker are Management Occupations

($116,800), Legal Occupations ($82,200), and Architecture and Engineering Occupations ($77,000). The

unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.3% among Legal Occupations to 6.5%

among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations.

Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the Finger Lakes is expected to be Healthcare

Support Occupations with a +1.2% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this

period is expected for Personal Care and Service Occupations (+2,989 jobs) and Healthcare Practitioners and

Technical Occupations (+2,436). Over the same period, the highest separation demand (occupation demand due to

retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Office and Administrative Support

Occupations (93,003 jobs) and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (80,153).

Occupation Snapshot in Finger Lakes, 2018q3

Current 5-Year History 10-Year Forecast

Four Quarters Ending with

2018q3 -----2018q3----- Total

Change

Avg Ann

% Chg in

Empl --Separations-- ---Growth---

SOC Occupation Empl Avg Ann

Wages1 LQ Unempl Unempl

Rate Online

Job Ads2 Empl Region Total New

Demand Exits Transfer Empl Avg Ann

Rate

11-0000 Management 32,799 $116,800 0.93 531 1.6% 1,498 355 0.2% 25,641 9,276 15,957 408 0.1%

13-0000 Business and Financial Operations 24,399 $70,500 0.81 751 3.0% 1,137 -5 0.0% 22,344 7,250 14,504 591 0.2%

15-0000 Computer and Mathematical 16,338 $73,600 0.95 464 2.8% 1,420 527 0.7% 11,330 2,807 7,973 550 0.3%

17-0000 Architecture and Engineering 11,290 $77,000 1.13 182 1.6% 600 294 0.5% 7,525 2,782 5,071 -327 -0.3%

19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science 3,882 $63,400 0.81 85 2.1% 233 68 0.4% 3,584 1,067 2,415 102 0.3%

21-0000 Community and Social Service 11,620 $46,500 1.24 273 2.3% 854 583 1.0% 13,672 4,763 7,991 918 0.8%

23-0000 Legal 4,300 $82,200 0.90 58 1.3% 99 203 1.0% 2,727 1,057 1,521 149 0.3%

25-0000 Education, Training, and Library 46,190 $63,400 1.41 2,271 4.7% 1,049 1,872 0.8% 40,446 19,812 19,169 1,465 0.3%

27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media

9,402 $51,600 0.89 243 2.6% 302 -41 -0.1% 9,000 3,877 5,189 -66 -0.1%

29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 37,552 $68,400 1.13 626 1.6% 1,801 2,427 1.3% 22,781 10,314 10,030 2,436 0.6%

31-0000 Healthcare Support 17,832 $30,700 1.08 744 3.9% 390 1,557 1.8% 23,396 10,896 10,171 2,328 1.2% 33-0000 Protective Service 13,461 $53,100 1.07 298 2.2% 190 32 0.0% 13,710 6,843 7,376 -510 -0.4%

35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related 46,892 $26,000 0.93 3,312 6.5% 1,624 2,519 1.1% 80,822 35,686 44,467 669 0.1%

37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

19,393 $29,000 0.94 1,031 5.0% 551 1,371 1.5% 24,476 11,705 12,452 319 0.2%

39-0000 Personal Care and Service 25,805 $28,200 1.12 1,157 4.3% 855 2,084 1.7% 41,991 20,320 18,682 2,989 1.1%

Page 11: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

11

Occupation Snapshot in Finger Lakes, 2018q3

Current 5-Year History 10-Year Forecast

Four Quarters Ending with

2018q3 -----2018q3----- Total

Change

Avg Ann

% Chg in

Empl --Separations-- ---Growth---

SOC Occupation Empl Avg Ann

Wages1 LQ Unempl Unempl

Rate Online

Job Ads2 Empl Region Total New

Demand Exits Transfer Empl Avg Ann

Rate

41-0000 Sales and Related 57,573 $38,700 0.97 2,443 4.1% 3,742 -1,168 -0.4% 75,383 33,603 43,713 -1,933 -0.3%

43-0000 Office and Administrative Support 86,518 $37,800 1.00 3,898 4.3% 2,901 -200 0.0% 87,275 43,145 49,858 -5,728 -0.7%

45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 4,668 $32,300 1.21 231 4.8% 56 411 1.9% 6,264 1,653 5,003 -391 -0.9%

47-0000 Construction and Extraction 22,930 $48,500 0.85 1,028 4.2% 393 1,753 1.6% 24,147 8,223 15,074 850 0.4%

49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

21,696 $46,000 0.97 501 2.2% 1,060 773 0.7% 20,097 7,577 12,684 -165 -0.1%

51-0000 Production 39,602 $38,700 1.11 1,662 4.0% 1,396 -1,037 -0.5% 35,997 15,168 26,057 -5,228 -1.4%

53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving 32,683 $35,200 0.81 1,774 5.1% 1,857 2,104 1.3% 38,670 16,839 22,263 -432 -0.1%

Total - All Occupations 586,825 $49,000 1.00 n/a n/a 24,008 16,483 0.6% 631,277 274,662 357,619 -1,003 0.0%

Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2018Q3 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2017 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. Ads lacking zip code

information but designating a place (city, town, etc.) may be assigned to the zip code with greatest employment in that place for queries in this analytic. Due to alternative county-assignment

algorithms, ad counts in this analytic may not match that shown in RTI (nor in the popup window ad list). Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of

Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2018Q1, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2018Q3. Wages by

occupation are as of 2017 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional

growth patterns.

Page 12: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

12

Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the Finger

Lakes with the highest relative concentration is Electric/Electronics Mfg. with a location quotient of 2.70. This cluster

employs 16,665 workers in the region with an average wage of $84,399. Employment in the Electric/Electronics Mfg.

cluster is projected to contract in the region about 2.2% per year over the next ten years.

Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated

through 2018Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2018Q3. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Page 13: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

13

Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the

Finger Lakes is projected to contract 0.0% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate

degree are expected to grow 0.8% per year, those requiring a bachelor’s degree are forecast to grow 0.2% per year,

and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 0.3% per year.

Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2018Q3. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the

Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns.

Page 14: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

14

Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a region. In 2017, nominal GDP

in the Finger Lakes expanded 1.4%. This follows growth of 2.4% in 2016. As of 2017, total GDP in the Finger Lakes

was $59,535,738,000.

Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2017.

Of the sectors in the Finger Lakes, Manufacturing contributed the largest portion of GDP in 2017, $9,642,904,000

The next-largest contributions came from Educational Services ($6,378,902,000); Health Care and Social Assistance

($6,030,612,000); and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing ($5,548,172,000).

Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through 2017.

Page 15: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

15

Region Definition Finger Lakes is defined as the following counties: Genesee County, New York; Livingston County, New York; Monroe

County, New York; Ontario County, New York; Orleans County, New York; Seneca County, New York; Wayne

County, New York; Wyoming County, New York; Yates County, New York

Page 16: Economic Overview - SUNY System...Employment Trends. As of 2018Q3, total employment for the Finger Lakes was 586,825 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending

Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright © 2019 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved.

16

FAQ What is a location quotient?

A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has

the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the

expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment

in comparison to the nation.

What is separation demand?

Separation demand is the number of jobs required due to separations—labor force exits (including retirements) and turnover

resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that separation demand does not include all

turnover—it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The total projected demand

for an occupation is the sum of the separation demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in

an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation).

What is a cluster?

A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient

of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster.

What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages?

Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not

align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry

wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average

occupation wages in a region do not match exactly.

What is NAICS?

The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the

type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the “all industry” level to the 6-digit level. The first two

digits define the top level category, known as the “sector,” which is the level examined in this report.

What is SOC?

The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers

are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification,

occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group

includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience.

About This Report

This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ®, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable.

However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.