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Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment Management. Any use of the investment ideas, portfolio allocations, or other ideas by persons other than Rochdale requires the execution of a solicitation agreement and a licensing fee. © 2011 Rochdale Investment Management November 2011

Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Page 1: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy

The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment Management. Any use of the investment ideas, portfolio allocations, or other ideas by persons other than Rochdale requires the execution of a solicitation agreement and a licensing fee. © 2011 Rochdale Investment Management

November 2011

Page 2: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Economic OutlookRecession Becoming Likely Scenario

Spreading Weakness Makes Economy Increasingly Vulnerable1. Fed policy ineffective at generating demand/Liquidity inelasticity

2. Fiscal drag in 2012/High political uncertainty

3. Sluggish labor market and flat income growth

4. Consumer sentiment at recessionary levels

5. Slowing/negative corporate profit growth

6. Business spending slowing/capex plans shelved

7. Weakening manufacturing/exports with slowing global growth

8. No housing recovery in sight

9. Moderate geopolitical/event risk (EuroDebt Crisis/Systemic Financial Sector Hazard)

These represent the opinions of Rochdale Investment Management and are subject to change without notice.

Page 3: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Spreading Economic Weakness

Weakness is spreading between economic subsectors, with the Leading Diffusion Index rarely dropping as low as its current reading of 0.2 without a recession occurring.

Source: Rochdale Investment Management, September 2011, Used with permission of ECRI.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Recessions

Leading Diffusion Index (ECRI)

Page 4: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

4

Economic and Financial Indicators – November 2011

Indicators Are Forward Looking 3 to 6 MonthsSources: Rochdale Investment Management 11/1/11FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY

Strengthening Weakening

Global Economic Outlook US Economic Outlook ECRI Leading Index

Personal Consumption/Retail Sales

Credit Demand/ Availability

Fiscal PolicyBusiness Surveys Trend

Labor Market

Housing/Mortgages

Inflation Corporate Profit Growth

Business Spending

Volatility LevelsEquity Market Valuation Company Guidance

Energy/Oil Costs

Political Environment

Interest Rates/Fixed Income

Monetary Policy Disposable Personal Income/Wages

Page 5: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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High Recession Risk (65-100%)Medium Recession Risk (30-65%)Low Recession Risk (0-30%)Source: Rochdale Investment Management, 11/21/2011

Recession Monitor

Indicator Status

ECRI Leading Indicators The overwhelming majority of all leading indexes (LLI, WLI, SLI) remain locked in recessionary configurations, with economic weakness spreading from one subindex to another. Below trend growth and higher cyclical volatility has created a window of vulnerability where the economy is now susceptible to pretty much any macro shock. High 80%

Labor Market Our most critical data series. Though generally positive, latest jobs data continue to highlight ongoing struggles for the consumer and reflects continued uncertainty about the demand outlook among business owners. Gains remain sluggish and leading indexes are pointing to further weakening in the quarters ahead. Medium 40%

Consumer Spending U-shaped recovery. So far consumption has held up fairly well, but with slow income growth, high unemployment, another reversal in household wealth, and credit tightening, growth will likely continue to be below trend through at least 2012. Confidence is the main problem and will only really be cured by a better labor market. Medium 45%

Geopolitical Risks/ContagionWith the U.S. economy particularly vulnerable to any geo-political/economic shock, we are most concerned over contagion risk to the global economy/financial system from European sovereign debt/economic growth issues. We have increased confidence Europe's leaders will do all that is necessary to avoid an acute shock to the banking system, but need to see a concrete plan/action. Negative feedback loops to U.S. exports/manufacturing from slowing global growth raise further concern.

Medium 60%

Global Economic Growth Recession in Europe very likely. Global expansion appears sustainable for now, as stronger growth in China, India, Brazil and other developing countries should offset weaker output in the U.S. and Europe, but feedback of slower growth to U.S. exports and overseas revenues need to be watched. Medium 60%

Business Sentiment/Capital Spending/Corporate Profits

Expectations for slowing capex spending remains in place on weak demand outlook. With businesses continuing to substitute technology for high cost labor. Uncertainty also contributing to hiring hesitancy. Elevated recession risks threaten corporate profitability and forecasts are under negative watch on slower domestic and global growth expectations. Sustainability of expansion is a must, but guidance is already coming down with economic growth prospects. Nevertheless, consensus and market expectations remain behind the curve.

Low 20%

Fiscal PolicyFederal fiscal stimulus is ramping down, and will act as a drag on GDP growth in 2012 though much of the fiscal consolidation bite comes in 2013. Potential policy mistakes, debt/deficit concerns, and uncertainty over tax and regulatory action also raise risks. Worry is the U.S. government beginning its own deleveraging process, while economy is still struggling with effects of massive consumer deleveraging.

High 70%

Monetary Policy Fed to remain accommodative, but monetary policy options are extremely limited. For now QE3 unlikely near-term unless economy gets much worse and effects will be muted as "Liquidity Inelasticity"/deleveraging continues to limits power of policy to generate much upside demand. Low 10%

Credit Availability/Demand Weakening consumer/business confidence is depressing demand side and liquidity inelasticity preventing usual transmission mechanism from monetary policy. Bank willingness to make loans and demand for loans has improved, but weaker outlook and fallout from Euro Debt crisis has already started to have a tightening effect. Medium 40%

Service Sector Leading indexes are now in a cyclical downturn for the sector that represents the vast majority of consumer spending. Recent surveys still point to a growing economy, albeit slowly, but the pace of expansion has slowed considerably since the beginning of the year and activity remains vulnerable to negative shocks, which could still push it to contract. Low 30%

Manufacturing Sector Leading manufacturing indexes are now in downturns that are as pronounced, pervasive & persistent as past recessions. Despite fairly solid actual production numbers so far, weakness in regional and national surveys point to continuing challenges for manufacturers, particularly weaker European activity and the slower growth from Asia. Medium 55%

Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence continues to be weighed down by higher prices, uncertainty over the strength of the labor market recovery, government policy, volatile equity markets and depressed home values. Lower energy/commodity prices should give some support going forward, but improved labor market/income expectations is a must if consumers are to begin spending again. High 65%

Housing Bumpy, L-shaped recovery at best with depressed home values weighing on consumer confidence. Outlook, going forward, will remain volatile with further declines possible and heavily dependent on jobs. New home construction will be slow, as builders try to avoid destabilizing prices by bringing new inventory to market. On the plus side, pent-up demand is building. Low 30%

Inflation Headline inflation peaking and a tame core inflation rate change. Idle productive capacity among businesses, slowing growth and continuing weak demand should keep prices in check deep into 2012. U.S. FIG remains near its 10 month low, with price pressure in a clear cyclical downturn. Low 5%

Energy Despite recent rise in oil, we expect slowing global economic growth should keep energy prices in check. Low 20%

Total 50%

Recession Risk Level

Page 6: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Leading IndexesEconomy is Becoming Increasingly Vulnerable to Macro Shocks

Economic growth prospects have dimmed further, as risks to outlook have risen to above 50%.Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute, October 2011, Used with permission of ECRI.These represent the opinions of Rochdale Investment Management and are subject to change without notice.

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Long Leading Index Leading EmploymentIndex

Leading Home PriceIndex

Leading ServicesIndex

LeadingManufacturing Index

Leading Exports Index

% C

hang

e in

Grow

th R

ate

6 Months Earlier3 Months EarlierLatest Month

Page 7: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Economic Outlook Scenarios

Rochdale Economic Outlook Scenarios (2012) Probability

Recession 50%SLOG (Slow Growth) 45%Strong trend or above growth 5%

Recession Risk at 50%:– U.S. budget deficits/debt/fiscal drag (High Risk to Outlook)

– Consumer confidence (High Risk to Outlook)

– European sovereign debt crisis (Moderate/High to Outlook)

– Slowing global growth (Moderate/High Risk to Outlook)

These represent the opinions of Rochdale Investment Management and are subject to change without notice.

Page 8: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Economic Outlook

Sources: Rochdale Investment Management, October 2011 These reflect the opinions of Rochdale and are subject to change at any time.

*Includes preliminary estimates that are subject to revision upon final data release.

Criteria Actual 2010 Rochdale Forecast 2011

1. GDP Growth 2.9% 1.75% – 2.0%

2. Corporate Profits 32% 11.0%

3. Disposable Personal Income 1.4% 1.5%

4. Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.7% 1.5% – 1.7%

5. Capital Investment (Business & equipment) 15% 6% – 7%

6. InflationTotal 1.6% 2.8%

Core 0.7% 1.8%

7. Interest Rates (Year End)

Fed Funds Rate 0% - 0.25% 0% – 0.25%

Treasury Note, 5 Yr. 1.60% 0.70% – 1.0%

Treasury Note, 10 Yr. 3.0% 1.75% – 2.0%

8. Productivity Growth 3.9% 1.75% – 2.0%

9. EmploymentUnemployment Rate 9.4% 8.9% – 9.1%

Total New Jobs 1 million 1.0 – 1.1 million

10. Capacity Utilization 75% 77%

11. Oil $72 (Annual Avg.) $90 – $95 (Annual Avg.)

Page 9: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Equity Market: Underweight Growth EquitiesRising Risks & Uncertainty Reduce Attractiveness

Complexity of factors and high variability of potential outcomes favors predictable yielding investments over equities

Dimming global economic prospects

– U.S.: Recession increasing likely

– Europe: Recession

– Asia: Slowing growth

Slowing/Negative earnings growth

Reasonable valuations, as long as recession is avoided

Low inflation/Low interest rates

Moderate Systemic Financial Sector Risk (Euro Debt Crisis)

Weakening economic fundamentals, negative/slowing earnings growth, policy uncertainty/event risk, and high volatility indicate an underweight to growth equities and allocations to Dividend Stocks, High Yield Bonds and Non-Equity Alternatives is appropriate.

These represent the opinions of Rochdale Investment Management and are subject to change without notice.

Page 10: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Rochdale Stock Market Multi-Factor ModelStrategy: Remain Underweight Growth Equities

Source: Rochdale Investment Management, November 2011

Score Equity Allocation 0 to 1 At or below minimum of equity allocation range2 to 4 Underweight5 Neutral Weight6 to 7 Overweight8 to 10 Fully invested to maximum equity allocation range

Indicator Status Outlook Score

Economic Outlook Leading indexes are signaling that global economic growth prospects have dimmed further. U.S. recession risk stands at 50%. Negative 4

Corporate Profitability Despite recent cut in forecast, earnings remain on negative watch due to developing effects of rising recession risks, slower global growth and sovereign debt concerns/contagion risks. Negative 4

Monetary Conditions/Liquidity Monetary conditions remain strongly accommodative and liquidity is rising, but policy effectiveness has been diminished by uncertainty and forces of deleveraging. Positive 6

Valuation Market remains reasonably valued relative to historical averages and fixed income, as long as recession is avoided. Neutral 5

Technical Indicators Should recession be avoided, indications are that market is beginning to trade at/near oversold levels. Nevertheless, impact of non-investors/"meta-risks" on market trading means annual price movements are now in the range of 25%, up from the historical 15%. Negative 4

Systemic Financial Sector Risk Full impact of Euro Debt Crisis remains a wildcard. Though Euro leaders appear committed to preventing acute shock, resolution of crisis remains far off and will keep volatility/uncertainty elevated. Negative 3

Score 4

Equity Market Scorecard

Page 11: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

11Source: Rochdale Investment Management, November 2011

Score Equity Allocation 0 to 1 At or below minimum of equity allocation range2 to 4 Underweight5 Neutral Weight6 to 7 Overweight8 to 10 Fully invested to maximum equity allocation range

Indicator Status Outlook Score

Economic Outlook Leading indexes are signaling that global economic growth prospects have dimmed further. U.S. recession risk stands at 50%. Negative 4

US Leading Indexes The overwhelming majority of all leading indexes (LLI, WLI, SLI) are currently in recessionary configurations, with economic weakness spreading from one sub index to another. Below trend growth and higher cyclical volatility has created a window of vulnerability where the economy is now susceptible to pretty much any macro shock. Negative 4

Global Leading Indexes Recession in Europe is likely. Global expansion appears sustainable for now, as stronger growth in China, India, Brazil and other developing countries should offset weaker output in the U.S. and Europe, but feedback of slower growth to U.S. exports and overseas revenues need to be watched. Neutral 5

Uncertainty/Geopolitical Risk Weakening domestic growth makes the U.S. economy particularly vulnerable to any geo-political/economic shock. Our most significant concern exists over contagion risk to the global economy/financial system from European sovereign debt/economic growth issues. Negative 1

Corporate Profitability Despite recent cut in forecast, earnings remain on negative watch due to developing effects of rising recession risks, slower global growth and sovereign debt concerns/contagion risks. Negative 4

Earnings Growth Earnings growth to moderate/decline with a slowing/recessionary global economy. Consensus and market expectations remain behind the curve. Negative 4

Margins Rising labor costs, declining productivity and reduction in fiscal drivers (transfer payments) that have fallen to company bottom lines are expected to begin eroding record profit margin growth. Negative 4

Revenue Growth Topline growth likely to slow on weakening global demand, with market expectations too high for SLOG/Recessionary outlook. Negative 4

Regulatory/Tax Outlook Uncertainty over deficit/debt, taxes and regulation with Health Care, Energy and Financial reform remains high. Negative 4

Monetary Conditions/Liquidity Monetary conditions remain strongly accommodative and liquidity is rising, but policy effectiveness has been diminished by uncertainty and forces of deleveraging. Positive 6

Yield Curve Steep yield curve favorable for equities. Positive 7

Interest Rates Real short rates remain significantly in negative territory and a bear market has never started at such a level. Liquidity inelasticity limits power of policy to generate much upside demand. Positive 6

Money Growth Continued upturn in growth suggests increasing liquidity available for financial assets. However, market volatility is likely leading to an increase in cash, and is likely further depressing the money multiplier and making a boost to real activity unlikely. Positive 6

Valuation Market remains reasonably valued relative to historical averages and fixed income, as long as recession is avoided. Neutral 5

P/E At 11-12x forward earnings, market remains reasonably to attractively valued on a historical basis. However, macro growth prospects/uncertainty does not preclude the possibility of lower multiples as experienced during 1970s for example. Neutral 5

Bond/Equity Earnings Yield Given the current spread between the earnings yield of the S&P 500 and real corporate bonds, stocks continue to appear inexpensive. However, Monetary Policy is keeping rates artificially low. Positive 6

Technical Indicators Should recession be avoided, indications are that market is beginning to trade at/near oversold levels. Nevertheless, impact of non-investors/"meta-risks" on market trading means annual price movements are now in the range of 25%, up from the historical 15%. Negative 4

Investor Sentiment/Money Flow Bearish sentiment continues to rise but not yet at capitulation levels. Negative 4

Volatility Based on historical performance, VIX is at a level that provides a significant chance of upward stock price movement. Positive 6

Moving Averages/Momentum Momentum indicators have broke through long term moving averages, with few signs of reversals currently. Negative 3

Market Strength/Breadth Relative strength is signaling current correction and is approaching oversold levels, but large swings in price may create false buy or sell signals. Negative 4

Systemic Financial Sector Risk Full impact of Euro Debt Crisis remains a wildcard. Though Euro leaders appear committed to preventing acute shock, resolution of crisis remains far off and will keep volatility/uncertainty elevated. Negative 3

Score 4

Equity Market Scorecard

Page 12: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

12

12 Month S&P 500 Forward P/E

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Corporate Earnings & Market Valuation

Source: Rochdale, Thomson Financial, Baseline 10/11/11FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY

Attractively Valued

OvervaluedFairly Valued

S&P 500 Operating Earnings Estimates

2011 2012*

$96 $96

*Earnings remain on watchdue to developing effects of rising recession risks, slower global growth and sovereign debt concerns/contagion risks.

Earnings S&P 500

$40

$60

$80

$100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e

$Amt Year

Peak Earnings

Page 13: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

13

Sector/Industry Outlook

Industry Group weightings are driven by a combination of proprietary model ranking and fundamental analysis. Weightings pertain to Rochdale’s target portfolio and do not necessarily reflect the current allocation of any actual portfolio.

Rochdale Investment Management, October 2011FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY

Ranking is based on the opinions of Rochdale, based on its proprietary sector research.

Food & Staples Retailing Consumer Staples = = + = +Food Beverage & Tobacco Consumer Staples = = + + +Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences Health Care = + = + +Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care = = = + +Household & Personal Products Consumer Staples = = + = +Telecommunication Services Telecommunication Services + + = = +Utilities Utilities = + = + +Energy Energy = = + = =Consumer Services Consumer Discretionary = = + = =Automobiles & Components Consumer Discretionary = - + - =Consumer Durables & Apparel Consumer Discretionary - + = = =Media Consumer Discretionary = = + = =Retailing Consumer Discretionary - = = = =Software & Services Information Technology = + = = =Technology Hardware & Equipment Information Technology = + - = =Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Information Technology + - = - =Insurance Financials = = - - -Diversified Financials Financials = - - - -Banks Financials = = - - -Real Estate Financials - = - + -Capital Goods Industrials = - = - -Commercial & Professional Services Industrials - - = = -Transportation Industrials = - + - -Materials Materials = = - = -

EconomicValueSectorIndustry Group TechnicalFactor Grade

Underweight

Growth Quality

Overweight

Equal Weight

Weighting

Page 14: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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S&P 500 Volatility Zones - 1995 to 2011Heightened Risk Environment Continues

Persistent, heightened volatility requires investors to revisit portfolio allocations and rethink approach to equity investing. An adjustment to the portfolio’s equity allocation may be necessary to meet risk tolerance.

As of November 2011. Rochdale Investment Management uses Barra Inc.'s Aegis System™ 'Total Risk' data as a measure of volatility. Barra Inc.'s Aegis System™ is a third party equity risk management software package used to help assess risk/return trade offs.

FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12/31

/1995

12/31

/1996

12/31

/1997

12/31

/1998

12/31

/1999

12/31

/2000

12/31

/2001

12/31

/2002

12/31

/2003

12/31

/2004

12/31

/2005

12/31

/2006

12/31

/2007

10/5/

2008

3/31/2

009

2/28/2

010

3/31/2

011

4/30/2

011

5/31/2

011

6/30/2

011

7/30/2

011

8/31/2

011

9/30/2

011

10/31

/2011

Moderate: 0% - 23% Elevated: 23% - 29% High: 29% - 36% Excessive: Over 36%

Moderate

Elevated

HighExcessive

Higher Volatility May Cause Clients to

Exceed Risk Budgets

Mar

ket C

apita

lizat

ion

Wei

ghte

d Pe

rcen

t in

Cat

egor

y

(Exc

lude

s U

tiliti

es)

Page 15: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Capital Market AssumptionsAverage Normalized Expectations

(1) Expect 1 out of every 4-5 years (2) Expect 1 out of every 10-15 yearsAnnualized Return is the average expected annual change of an asset class value estimated over a long-term period.Annualized Risk is defined as an annual standard deviation of return or a degree of uncertainty of annual return estimated over a long-term period.Downside Exposure represents the longest continuous decline in an asset class extending one or more years.Past performance is not indicative of future results. There can be no guarantee of future performance.

*Subject to oil, interest rates and housing staying within forecasted ranges

October 2011

Asset Class Near Term Trend

Near Term Expectations (6-9 months)

Historical Longer Term

Average

Annualized Risk (%) (1)

Downside Exposure (%) (2)

Large Cap Negative 5% 9 - 10 15 - 17 25 - 35

Small/Mid Cap Negative 5% 11 - 12 22 35 - 45

International - Developed Markets Negative 0% 9 - 10 16 - 18 35 - 45

International- Emerging Markets Neutral 10% 12 - 14 22 - 24 40 - 50

Dividend and Income Neutral 6% 8 15 20 - 30

Fixed Income (Investment Grade) Neutral 4% 6.5 5 - 7 5 - 10

High Yield Fixed Income Positive 6% 8 - 9 10 - 13 25

Low Volatility Alternative Strategy Positive 5% 6 - 8 5 - 10 10 - 15

Cash Positive .25% 2.5 - 3 0 0

Page 16: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Portfolio StrategyEquity Asset Classes

Asset Class Short-Term Long-TermNegative NeutralEconomic growth prospects have dimmed further, as risks to outlook have risen to above 50% Reasonable Valuations

Earnings growth: flat or negative Slower economic trend growth/Shorter economic cycles

Market 2012 earnings expectations remain behind the curve Annual price movements now in the range of 25%, up from the historical 15%

Meta-risks/Noninvestor trading impact high. Volatility likely to remain elevatedNeutral / Overweight NeutralFair valuations Attractive cash flow yieldsYields attractive in current low inflation environment Higher current cash flow than common stocks and fixed incomeProfitable in slow growth environment/Position bias towards economically defensive companies

Growing dividend income mitigates effects of inflation & rising interest rates

Negative NegativeStagnant growth prospects. Recession in Europe likely. Lower long-term secular growthWeakening global growth prospects hurts exports Austerity for years ahead in Europe (slow/no growth)Sovereign debt issues/Political uncertaintyNeutral Positive

Stronger economic growth prospects Emerging economies in better fiscal condition, with stronger secular growth

Equity outperformance driven by better earnings growth, but higher volatility due to collateral impacts Savings & investment behavioral dynamics

Rising domestic consumption offsets slowing global demand Growth in real wages/Secular rise in per capita incomesAttractive valuations Demographic dividends. Rising urbanization leading to higher productivity

US Stocks

HDI Stocks

International Stocks(developed market)

International Stocks(emerging market)

Page 17: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Portfolio StrategyFixed Income Asset Classes

Asset Class Short-Term Long-TermNeutral / Negative NegativeTemporary safety investment Inflation & interest rate riskInflation pressure easing with a slowing economy Deteriorating US Fiscal BalancesDeteriorating US Fiscal Balances Stay short to intermediate term on maturityTarget short/intermediate term on maturityPositive NeutralEconomic uncertainties create buying opportunities Inflation & interest rate riskStrong corporate balance sheets, significantly healthier than prior to Great Recession Stay short to intermediate term on maturity

Target short/intermediate termPositive Positive Attractive yields Higher in capital structure than common and preferred sharesHigher position in capital structure provides more safety than equities Some floating rate provides inflation risk mitigation

Lower volatility and less correlation to the equity markets EM HY: Lower default and more attractive interest rate yields as compared to similar US HY debt

Strong corporate balance sheets/lower default risk Legal Advances: Adds low correlation and diversification to bond portfolios

Fixed Income (US government)

Fixed Income (investment grade)

Fixed Income(US high yield bonds & loans,

emerging market high yield bonds, legal advances)

Page 18: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Portfolio StrategyAlternative Asset Classes

Asset Class Short-Term Long-TermPositive PositiveAttractive returns when compared to traditional fixed income & annuities Can bring stability and diversification to overall client portfolios

Known principal & interest payments Greater cash flows allow reinvestment in higher return generating asset classes

Safety of Principal Self-liquidating pool subjects portfolio to lower capital fluctuations (Interest rate risk)

Strong reinvestable cash flow Positive PositiveBetter than equity return potential Low volatility. Very low correlation to equity market or broader economyLow volatility. Very low correlation to equity market or broader economy Low risk of principal lossHigh degree of diversification across geography, insurer, medical ailment, & life expectancyLow credit riskPositive PositiveAttractive yield spreads Well collateralized, low default riskShort term maturities Floating rate offers inflation and interest rate risk mitigationDislocation in market creates attractive opportunities Hard asset collateralized loansPeriodic principal and interest cash flow generation Rigorous underwriting of pricing & structurePositive PositiveAttractive risk adjusted returns Hedged Strategies generates favorable upside vs. downside over equitiesRisk stabilizer/Lower volatility/Diversifier for equities Brings low correlation portfolio benefitsDiversification benefits/Return enhancer for fixed income Takes advantage of volatility across markets

Structured legal claims settlements

Life Settlements

Private Trade Financed Fixed Income

Alternative Low Volatility Strategies

Page 19: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Important Disclosures

The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index represents 500 large U.S. Companies.

The ECRI’s U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI) is a composite index designed to lead cyclical swings of the U.S. economy. It is a comprehensive summary measure of U.S. economic conditions made up of leading indicators of the U.S. economy including measures of production, employment, income, and sales.

U.S. Leading Employment Index (USLEI) is designed to lead cycles in U.S. employment activity. It is a summary measure of the best leading indicators of U.S. employment activity.

U.S. Leading Home Price Index (USLHPI) is designed to lead cyclical swings in real median home prices. It is a summary measure of the best leading indicators of U.S. home prices.

U.S. Leading Services Index (USLSI) is designed to lead the service sector activity. It is a summary measure of the best leading indicators of U.S. service sector activity.

U.S. Leading Manufacturing Index (USLMI) is designed to lead the manufacturing sector activity. It is a summary measure of the best leading indicators of U.S. manufacturing sector activity.

U.S. Leading Exports Index (USLEI) is designed to lead cycles in exports. It is a summary measure of the best leading indicators of U.S. export activity.

This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation, offering, or recommendation byRochdale Investment Management or its affiliates or subsidiaries of any product, security, transaction, or service, includingsecurities transactions, investment management or advisory services. The views expressed herein represent the opinions of Rochdale Investment Management and are subject to change without notice at anytime. Rochdale Investment Management does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Rochdale assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. This information should not in any way be construed to be investment, financial, tax, or legal advice or other professional advice or service, and should not be relied on in making any investment or other decisions.

Page 20: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

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Important Disclosures

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment. No investment strategy, such as asset allocation, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.

The asset classes listed involve contrasting risk factors.

Cash-equivalent investments have fluctuated the least and have been relatively stable.

In general, the bond market is volatile as prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.

The investor should note that vehicles that invest in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds) involve additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. The investor should be aware of the possible higher level of volatility, and increased risk of default.

Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index.

International investing involves special risks including greater economic and political instability, as well as currency fluctuation risks, which may be even greater in emerging markets.

Investments in stocks of small companies involve additional risks. Smaller companies typically have a higher risk of failure, and are not as well established as larger blue-chip companies. Historically, smaller-company stocks have experienced a greater degree ofmarket volatility than the overall market average.

Certain information may be based on information received from sources Rochdale Investment Management considers reliable; Rochdale Investment Management does not represent that such information is accurate or complete. Certain statements containedherein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein are valid only as of the date of this document and are subject to change.

Page 21: Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy 112111.ppt · Economic Outlook & Stock Market Strategy The investment ideas developed herein are the intellectual property of Rochdale Investment

For more information, please contact

Rochdale Investment Management570 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10022 [email protected] www.rochdale.com