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Economic & Market Overview
US, Fairfield and Westchester CountiesMarch 9, 2012
1Overview
■2011: the year of disruption
–strong start
–natural followed by man made disasters slow expansion to a crawl
–Positive signs as year ends
■2012: The year of government deleveraging
–Uncertainty dominates outlook
–Taxes, regulations, financial, political, Europe/US
–Makes everyone cautious: business, households, investors
–Growth likely to remain sluggish
–Cautiously Optimistic
■Fairfield Westchester Outlook
–Weaker environment for financial services, healthier corporate growth
–Better second half than first half
–Excess capacity continues
2GDP Growth
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Percent Change From a Year Ago
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
3Consumer Spending Growth
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent Change From a Year Ago
4Business Investment Growth
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent Change From a Year Ago
5Real Disposable Income Growth
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Percent Change From a Year Ago
6
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
National Recessions Optimism Confidence
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mil
lio
ns o
f u
nit
s
US Motor Vehicle Sales
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
8
US Unemployment Rate
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Perc
en
t o
f L
ab
or
Fo
rce
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
National Recessions Healthy Labor Market Unemployment Claims
US Weekly Unemployment Claims
10
US Payroll Employment
118,000
123,000
128,000
133,000
138,000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Th
ou
san
ds o
f P
ers
on
s
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
12/07-2/10 -8.7 Mil.
2/10-1/12 +3.2 Mil.
11
US Corporate Profits
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Billio
ns o
f D
ollars
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
12
US Private Sector Employment GrowthMonthly Average-Preceding Three Months
-67.3
102.389.3
146.3
131.0
260.7
128.3135.7
218.3
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
Th
ou
san
ds o
f P
ers
on
s
13Employment Change 1/11 to 1/12 by Industry
Sector
599 577
414361
235191
126
24
-46
-276-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Profe
ssio
nal S
ervi
ces
Offi
ce-U
sing
Educa
tion
& H
ealth
Leis
ure
& H
ospi
talit
y
Man
ufac
turin
g
Ret
ail
Tran
spor
tatio
n & U
tiliti
es
Fina
ncia
l
Info
rmat
ion
Gove
rnm
ent
Th
ou
san
ds o
f P
ers
on
s
Total Increase: +1.9 mil.
Private Sector: +2.2 mil.
14
36.2%
45.6%
64.2%
46.1%
32.0%
17.8%
6.7%
27.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Total Office-Using
US NYC Fairfield Westchester
Jobs Recovered Since February 2010
As a percent of Jobs Lost
15
Fairfield County Unemployment Rate
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
16
Westchester County Unemployment Rate
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
17
Fairfield County Payroll Employment
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f P
ers
on
s
Recession -7.0%
Recovery +1.4%
18
Westchester County Payroll Employment
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
375
385
395
405
415
425
435
445
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f P
ers
on
s
Recession: -6.3%
Recovery: +1.8%
19
Financial Services Employment
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
25
30
35
40
45
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fairfield Westchester
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f P
ers
on
s
20
NYC Employment Financial Services
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
500
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f P
ers
on
s
21
Professional Business Services Employment
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fairfield Westchester
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f P
ers
on
s
22
Fairfield County
Market
Inventory
Dec 2011
Vacancy
Rate
Dec 2011
Asking Rent
Dec 2011
Yr-Over-Yr
Rent % Change
Fairfield
County
41.6 msf 20.5% $33.02 +2.4 %
Stamford
CBD
6.8 msf 26.9% $41.12 +0.1 %
Stamford
Suburbs
8.8 msf 24.7% $34.55 +14.3 %
Greenwich 4.3 msf 19.1% $52.38 -9.8%
23
Fairfield County Office MarketNew Leasing Activity
2.9
3.53.5
2.8
3.1
2.2
1.2
3.5
2.1
1.8
2.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Millio
ns S
F
24
20.4%
21.2%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11
Class A Class B
Fairfield Office Market: Vacancy Rate
25
12.8%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11
Fairfield County Office Market:
Sublease as a % of total available space
All Classes
26
Overall Asking Rents
Fairfield County Office Market
$35.65
$24.76
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
1Q
02
1Q
03
1Q
04
1Q
05
1Q
06
1Q
07
1Q
08
1Q
09
1Q
10
1Q
11
Class A Class B
$/s
f
27
$3
5.4
0
$3
6.2
9
$3
5.1
3
$3
4.3
1
$3
4.7
6
$3
5.0
0
$3
5.8
5
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
PS
F/Y
R
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
Va
ca
nc
y R
ate
Asking Rents
Vacancy Rate
FAIRFIELD COUNTY
CLASS A MARKET FORECAST
FORECAST
28
Westchester County
Market
Inventory
Dec 2011
Vacancy
Rate
Dec 2011
Asking
Rent
Dec
2011
Yr-Over-Yr
Rent %
Change
Westchester
County
28.5 msf 17.1 % $29.35 -2.8 %
White Plains
CBD
6.3 msf 16.2 % $32.36 +0.7 %
White Plains
Suburbs
4.5 msf 21.7 % $30.96 -0.6 %
29
Westchester County Office MarketNew Leasing Activity
1.2
1.0
1.3
2.0
1.2
1.9 1.9
2.1
1.7
1.9
1.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Millio
ns S
F
30
19.9%
8.3%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11
Class A Class B
Westchester Office Market: Vacancy Rate
31
9.3%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11
Westchester County Office Market:
Sublease as a % of total available space
All Classes
32
Overall Asking Rents
Westchester County Office Market
$29.93
$25.45
$22.00
$27.00
$32.00
1Q
02
1Q
03
1Q
04
1Q
05
1Q
06
1Q
07
1Q
08
1Q
09
1Q
10
1Q
11
Class A Class B
$/s
f
33
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
$34
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PS
F/Y
R
15%
17%
19%
21%
Va
ca
nc
y R
ate
Asking Rents
Vacancy Rate
WESTCHESTER COUNTY
CLASS A MARKET FORECAST
FORECAST
34
107 Elm Street
Four Stamford Plaza, 8th FloorStamford, CT 06902-3851
(203) 326-5800
www.cushwake.com
800 Westchester Avenue
Rye Brook, NY 10573(914) 997-9391
www.cushwake.com
