Economic indicators December 2012 - part 1

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Economic Indicators

Last update 18.01.2013

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – January 2013

Europe:

• Consensus January GDP forecast for WE decreased from 0,2% to 0,1% for 2013. Forecast for

2014 is on 1,2%.

• While the EU industrial confidence improved slightly in December, the consumer confidence

indicator decreased somewhat.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies

assessed their current business situation as somewhat less favorable they were considerable

less pessimistic about future business developments.

• The Euro area’s return to recession in Q4 2011 may well have extended through to end 2012.

Consensus predicts only a muted 2014 recovery in GDP after the declines in 2012 and 2013.

US:

• Consensus January GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,9% to 2,0% for 2013. Forecast

for 2014 is 2,8%

• The ‘fiscal cliff’ was averted as a late deal on taxes was reached. However, negotiations over

Federal spending cuts and the debt ceiling are postponed to February-March, extending

uncertainty over the outlook. Business activity remains fragile four years after the 2008 financial

crisis.

Japan:

• The January GDP growth forecast for Japan improved from 0,6% to 0,7% for 2013. Forecast for

2014 is 1,0%.

• Latest data show few signs of improvement in the Japanese economy.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Nov 12

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

06

Q1

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27


-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

'06Q

1

'07Q

1

'08 Q

1

'09

Q1

'10 Q

1

'11 Q

1

12

Q1

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Jan 13

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

'08

/1

'09

/1

'10

/1

'11

/1

12

/1

2.3

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Jan 13

Dec 12; 2,2

Jan 13; 0,75

Jan 13; 0,25

-0,5

0,00,5

1,0

1,52,0

2,5

3,03,5

4,0

4,55,0

5,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate


10.7

6

7

8

9

10

11

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Ja

n 0

7

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Ja

n 1

1

Jan

12

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in December.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 decreased slightly in December.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 12

The Ifo World Economic climate worsened again in the 4th quarter 2012

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 12

The economic climate for Western Europe worsened again in the

4th quarter 2012.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 12 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Jan 13

GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Jan 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Jan 13


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Jan 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed

their current business situation as somewhat less favorable than last month, they were

considerably less pessimistic about future business developments. German companies are more

confident about the future.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Jan 13

The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose again in December. While companies assessed

their current business situation as somewhat less favorable than last month, they were

considerably less pessimistic about future business developments. German companies are more

confident about the future.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Jan 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a

monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly from -9 to -7 in December.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a

monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – December 12:

The assessment of the current business situation in the

printing industry improved from +12%points in November to now

+21%, 9%points better than in the same month of last year.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – remained negative with -7%, 2% points up from

-9% in November.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained

negative for the 4th month in succession, decreasing again from -

28% to -32%points.

Source: IFO Jan 13, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release

Source: Zenith 12/12

Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,

rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015

Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow

2% in 2015

Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between

2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to

37%

Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in

internet display over the next three years

Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total

in 2015




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Economic indicators December 2012 - part 1