Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian-Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach

8/11/2019 Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian-Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach

1/33

AHDJ Vnr`jof Rapgr ]grjgs

Gmnonejm Jepijmatjnos nc Hggpgr ]nutkAsjao]nutkgast Asjao Jotgfratjno

Rrjnr tn 1::2, ]nutk aoh ]nutkgast Asjao gmnonejgs wgrg rgiatjvgiy jsniatgh crne nogaontkgr aoh tkgrg was ijttig tai` nc jotgr-rgfjnoai gmnonejm jotgfratjno. Xkg noiy trahgafrggegot tkat mnvgrgh tkg twn rgfjnos was tkg Daof`n` Afrggegot sjfogh jo 1:67tkat jomiuhgh Daofiahgsk, Johja, ]rj Iao`a, aoh tkg Ian Rgnpigs Hgenmratjm Tgpudijm(Ian RHT), as wgii as tkg Tgpudijm nc @nrga aoh tkg Rgnpigs Tgpudijm nc Mkjoa(RTM). Xkgrg was vgry ijttig djiatgrai trahg aoh jovgstegot aenof tkgsg mnuotrjgs. Xkgahnptjno nc tkg Inn` Gast pnijmy dy Johja aoh frgatgr cnmus no nutwarh nrjgotatjno jo1::1 ear`gh tkg start nc a ogw gra jo ]nutk aoh ]nutkgast Asjao gmnonejm rgiatjnos.]jomg tkgo, tkgrg kas dggo kgjfktgogh pnijmy jotgrgst jo tkg prnmgss nc jotgr-rgfjnoaijotgfratjno. ]jx trahg afrggegots kavg mneg jotn gccgmt dgtwggo ]nutk aoh ]nutkgastAsjao gmnonejgs jomiuhjof tkg iaohear` Assnmjatjno nc ]nutkgast Asjao Oatjnos(A]GAO)Johja Mneprgkgosjvg Gmnonejm Mnnpgratjno Afrggegot jo 4212.

Xkjs ogw awargogss nc tkg frgat pntgotjai nc jotgr-rgfjnoai trahg aoh jovgstegot kasairgahy igh tn jeprgssjvg rgspnosgs jo tgres nc rjsjof gmnonejm jotgrmkaofg. Jotgr-rgfjnoai gxpnrts aoh jepnrts kavg rjsgo sjfojcjmaotiy sjomg tkg gariy 1::2s, wjtkdjiatgrai trahg cinws frnwjof gvgo castgr tkao tkg nvgraii trahg nc tkgsg twn hyoaejmrgfjnos, aoh CHJ enrg tkao hnudijof nvgr tkg past hgmahg. Knwgvgr, tkgsg mkaofgskavg prnmgghgh crne a vgry seaii dasg0 jotgr-rgfjnoai gmnonejm jotgfratjno js stjiirgiatjvgiy inw aoh car dginw wkat nog wnuih gxpgmt fjvgo rgfjnoai mkaramtgrjstjms(Craomnjs, Taoa, aoh Vjfoarala 422:0 Hasfupta, Rjtjfaia, aoh Fnurhno 4214). Vkjignvgraii trahg aoh jovgstegot ijdgraijzatjno jo dntk rgfjnos kas dggo rgear`adig nvgrtkg past fgogratjno, jotgr-rgfjnoai darrjgrs kavg noiy caiigo prnpnrtjnoatgiy, gvgotknufk, cnr gxaepig, jotra-rgfjnoai trahg jo A]GAO js onw gssgotjaiiy tarjcc crgg aoh tkg

rgfjno kas dggo gedramjof hggp jotgfratjno jo cavnr nc a styijzgh uojcjgh ear`gt, tkg

=


6/33

AHDJ Vnr`jof Rapgr 8:8 Vjfoarala, Enrfao, Riueegr, aoh \kaj

A]GAO Gmnonejm Mneeuojty (AGM). Hjccjmuitjgs rgiatgh tn trahg aoh jovgstegotcamjijtatjno arg udjqujtnus0 jocrastrumturai ijo`s rgeajo prndigeatjm aoh jotgr-rgfjnoaigmnonejm mnnpgratjno jojtjatjvgs mnvgr noiy parts nc ]nutk Asja. Jo sknrt, wkjiggmnonejm jotgfratjno js rjsjof, jt kas a inof way tn fn dgcnrg jt mao rgamk jts pntgotjai.

Xkg fnai nc tkjs stuhy js tn gstjeatg tkg pntgotjai fajos crne ]nutk Asjao]nutkgastAsjao gmnonejm jotgfratjno usjof ao ahvaomgh mneputadig fgograi gqujijdrjue (MFG)enhgi. Jo nrhgr tn prnvjhg mnotgxt, tkg papgr dgfjos wjtk a rgvjgw nc jotgr-rgfjnoaitrahg ijo`s jo sgmtjno 4, crne wkjmk jt dgmnegs migar tkat jotgr-rgfjnoai trahg kas dggofrnwjof rapjhiy dut js stjii wgii dginw jts pntgotjai. ]gmtjno = mnosjhgrs tkg cgw stuhjgstkat kavg dggo usgh tn gvaiuatg tkg gccgmts nc ]nutk]nutkgast Asjao gmnonejmjotgfratjno aoh jotrnhumgs tkg MFG enhgi usgh jo tkjs stuhy. ]gmtjno 8 prgsgots aohgvaiuatgs tkg rgsuits nc sgvgrai pntgotjai smgoarjns nc gmnonejm jotgfratjno cnr ]nutkAsja aoh ]nutkgast Asja jo tgres nc tkgjr gccgmts no oatjnoai jomneg, gxpnrts, camtnrprjmgs (jo nrhgr tn faufg hjstrjdutjnoai gccgmts), aoh strumturai mkaofg.

Jo sknrt, tkg papgr gstjeatgs tkg pntgotjai fajos tn dg iarfg, assuejof tkat snct (g.f.,

trahg camjijtatjno) aoh karh jocrastrumturg arg put jo piamg tn rghumg jotgr-rgfjnoai trahgmnsts, wkjmk at prgsgot arg kjfk. As Eyaoear js a `gy jotgr-rgfjnoai drjhfg aohrgmgotiy iauomkgh aedjtjnus, nutwarh-nrjgotgh pnijmy rgcnres, tkg prnspgmts cnr ea`jofprnfrgss jo tkgsg argas arg strnof. Cnr gxaepig, jc tkg twn rgfjnos summggh johrnppjof jotgr-rgfjnoai tarjccs, rghumjof ono-tarjcc darrjgrs (OXDs) dy 72%, aohhgmrgasjof ntkgr trahg mnsts dy 17%wkjmk tkg papgr suffgsts js aedjtjnus dutogvgrtkgigss attajoadigwgicarg jo ]nutk Asja aoh ]nutkgast Asja wnuih rjsg dy $=67djiijno (;.:% nc frnss hnegstjm prnhumt PFHRU) aoh $1:= djiijno (3.8% nc FHR),rgspgmtjvgiy, dy 42=2, rgiatjvg tn tkg dasgijog. Xkgsg fajos wjii dg hrjvgo dy rjsjofgxpnrts aoh mnepgtjtjvgogss, partjmuiariy cnr ]nutk Asja, wknsg gxpnrts wnuih rjsg dyaienst twn tkjrhs. Kgomg, tkg papgr mnomiuhgs tkat jovgstegots jo mnoogmtjvjty wnuihlustjcy a kjfk igvgi nc jovgstegot.

4. ]NWXK A]JAO]NWXKGA]X A]JAO XTAHG IJO@]

Xkg frnwtk nc ]nutk aoh ]nutkgast Asjao jotgr-rgfjnoai trahg nvgr tjeg kas dggorgear`adig, crne vgry ijttig ($8 djiijno) jo 1::2 tn a mnosjhgradig aenuot ($;3 djiijno) jo4214, ao jomrgasg nc aienst 44 cnih (Cjfurg 1). Dntk rgfjnos gedramgh nutwarh-nrjgotgh rgcnres tn hggpgo ijo`s wjtk tkg findai gmnoney nvgr tkjs pgrjnh. Crne 4222tn 4214, gccgmtjvg appijgh eaoucamturjof tarjccs cgii crne 44% tn 14% jo ]nutk Asja aohcrne :% tn 6% jo ]nutkgast Asja, ea`jof tkg iattgr rgfjno arfuadiy tkg enst npgo jotkg hgvginpjof wnrih (AHD aoh AHDJ 421=). Xkjs ijdgraijzatjno kas dggo ao jepnrtaothrjvgr dgkjoh tkg jotgroatjnoaijzatjno nc tkgsg gmnonejgs0 cnr gxaepig, tkg gxpnrts-tn-

FHR ratjn nc A]GAO rnsg tn 76% aoh tkat nc Johja jomrgasgh tn 1;% (AHD aoh AHDJ421=). Mrnss-rgfjnoai trahg frnwtk was gvgo castgr< ]nutkgast Asjas skarg nc ]nutkAsjao trahg rnsg sijfktiy crne 11% tn 14% jo 4211, wjtk a sijfkt hjp jo 4214 at 12%,wkgrgas ]nutk Asjas skarg nc ]nutkgast Asjao trahg hnudigh crne adnut 4% tn 8%(Cjfurg 4). Xkjs suffgsts tkat wkjig mrnss-rgfjnoai trahg js rgiatjvgiy inw mnepargh tntrahg wjtk tkg rgst nc tkg wnrih cnr dntk rgfjnos, jt kas rjsgo crne dgjof cajriyjosjfojcjmaot tn dgjof jepnrtaot tn dntk rgfjnos, partjmuiariy ]nutk Asja. Jo camt, ]nutkaoh ]nutkgast Asjao trahg js 4.7 tjegs iarfgr tkao jotra-]nutk Asjao trahg (Xadig 1).Jotra-]nutkgast Asjao trahg js eumk kjfkgr, at adnut 47% nc jts tntai trahg, dut tkjsskarg kas dggo rgiatjvgiy stgahy nvgr tkg past 4 hgmahgs.

8


7/33


Cjfurg 1< Xntai Xrahg dgtwggo ]nutk aoh ]nutkgast Asja, 1::24214

($ djiijno)

Ontg< Cjfurgs rgpnrtgh dy jepnrtgrs.

]nurmg< WO Mnetrahg, ammgssgh Onvgedgr 421=.kttp


8/33


Xadig 1< Saiug nc Egrmkaohjsg Xrahg dgtwggo ]nutk aoh ]nutkgast Asja, 1::24214($ djiijno)

Gmnoney

Jepnrts Xntai Xrahg

]nutk Asja ]nutkgast Asja ]nutk Asja ]nutkgast Asja

1::2/:1 4222/21 4212/11 4211/14 1::2/:1 4222/21 4212/11 4211/14 1::2/:1 4222/21 4212/11 4211/14 1::2/:1 4222/21 4212/11 4211/14

]nutk Asja 666 1,=83 1=,237 11,:;7 4,2;1 8,1=4 47,83= 4;,441 1,646 7,866 =2,=7= =2,8;2 7,7:4 18,476 ;1,43; ;3,2:3

Acfkaojstao : 4= =21 =16 2 = 1 1 7: 413 4,:17 =,1;6 66 1: 47; 487

Daofiahgsk 77 83 7;6 3;= 7: 17= 477 =2= 866 1,16= 8,3:6 7,67= 7:3 1,32; 3,882 3,31=

Johja 842 ;;6 :,86; ;,2=7 1,318 =,86: 4=,;33 43,782 8:2 4,1;7 11,48; :,882 =,1:1 :,612 3=,:63 3;,=44

Eaihjvgs ; 1; 81 =1 44 12 81 81 48 127 424 411 147 1;1 718 7=1

Ogpai 44 16: 716 811 7 12 3 ; :1 86; 4,674 4,:;; ;= 187 413 41;

Ra`jstao 1:8 142 1,=:4 1,376 =2; =74 ;48 ;7; 4:1 868 =,7;8 =,7;8 1,223 1,8:1 3,3;3 3,3=1

]rj Iao`a 3; 68 68: ;72 68 147 862 862 4:7 ;87 8,:77 7,=1; 718 1,12= =,16; =,7=3

]nutkgastAsja

47:1 8,267 8=,:28 72,32= 47,313 66,247 482,33; 474,1:: 8,224 11,;=: 68,2;= ;7,7:: 78,4:7 136,::= 744,;24 778,662

DruogjHarussaiae

2 1 876 ;44 =:1 3:= 1,466 1,=72 4 3 :28 1,467 1,23: 1,864 =,47: =,6;3

Maednhja 1 1 : 11 43 147 6;1 :1= 1 17 111 183 =6 1,428 6,86; 6,226

Johnogsja 477 ;41 1=,2;8 17,3=; 62: 8,;=3 =:,631 84,=4; 8=7 4,41; 1;,6:: 44,13= 1,=== ;,473 :7,276 123,2=8

Ian RHT 2 2 87 126 83 162 1,=41 1,84= 2 7 76 14; 116 336 8,26: 8,;=2

Eaiaysja :74 1,2=2 12,613 1=,24: 12,;7= 46,6;= 37,82; 3:,212 1,167 4,;3= 18,33: 16,184 1:,3:3 76,14: 1=3,;84 187,433

Eyaoear 6: 418 1,431 1,=3; 473 683 =,71: =,;:6 ;7 =:6 1,3=3 1,;61 317 1,;:: ;,2=2 :,4=2

Rkjijppjogs 43 71 8;7 7=3 3=8 3,131 18,=47 11,3=7 128 =82 1,7=4 1,624 1,:6= 1=,431 =8,86: =2,:43]jofapnrg :11 1,81; 12,824 12,8=: :,72= 44,381 34,;28 36,7;7 1,72= =,:67 4=,123 47,=82 41,118 78,8;1 147,=2; 1=4,62=

Xkajiaoh 4:3 742 7,:68 3,368 4,:71 11,6=2 81,==; 82,:=7 32= 1,6=8 ;,344 :,::3 6,:7= 4=,33= 63,47= 66,8;;

Sjgt Oae 61 1: 1,861 1,:6; 48; 4,1=6 12,1=8 1=,144 :8 4;3 8,386 7,;=7 =;; 7,:32 =4,21: =6,722

Xntai =,=3; 7,841 73,:3: 34,7;; 46,3:6 ;1,176 433,1=1 4;2,81: 7,64: 16,=13 128,8=3 113,26: 7:,;;3 1;4,472 328,262 382,;33

Ian RHT 5 Ian Rgnpigs Hgenmratjm Tgpudijm.Ontg< Cjfurgs rgpnrtgh dy jepnrtgrs. Zgar raofgs rgcgr tn cjoaomjai ygar dgfjoojof jo Aprji nc tkg garijgr ygar.]nurmg< Vnrih Jotgfratgh Xrahg ]niutjnos (VJX]), ammgssgh 11 Hgmgedgr 421=. kttp


9/33


Jo sknrt, trahg dgtwggo ]nutk Asja aoh ]nutkgast Asja kas dggo rjsjof sjfojcjmaotiynvgr tjeg, dut jt js stjii rgiatjvgiy inw mnepargh tn tkgsg rgfjnos nvgraii trahg. Hngs tkjsogmgssarjiy suffgst a prndige> Jo camt, gvgo jc trahg dgtwggo ]nutk aoh ]nutkgastAsja wgrg sgaeigss, wg wnuihot gxpgmt jotgr-rgfjnoai trahg tn dg hnejoaot cnr sgvgrai

`gy rgasnos. Cjrst, tkgrg js tkg jssug nc sjzg. Vkjig tkg gmnonejgs nc ]nutk aoh]nutkgast Asja kavg fgograiiy dggo frnwjof rapjhiy, tkgjr ear`gts mnotjoug tnmnostjtutg a rgiatjvgiy seaii skarg nc findai trahg0 tkg djffgst findai ear`gts ijg nutsjhgnc tkg rgfjno aoh wjii oaturaiiy mnotjoug tn dg tkg enst jepnrtaot ear`gts cnr tkg twnrgfjnos. ]gmnoh, as ontgh tkrnufknut tkg gepjrjmai trahg ijtgraturg, fgnfrapkyeattgrs< mnuotrjgs tkat kavg mneeno dnrhgrs aoh/nr mneegrmjai mgotgrs tkat argminsg tnfgtkgr sknuih, mgtgrjs parjdus, kavg a tgohgomy tn trahg enrg wjtk gamk ntkgr.Jo tgres nc ]nutk aoh ]nutkgast Asjao mnoogmtjvjty, noiy Eyaoear kas mneenodnrhgrs wjtk ]nutk Asja, aoh Eyaoears nutwarh-nrjgotgh hgvginpegot stratgfy jsnoiy jo jts jocaomy. Xkjrh, wkjig a hjvgrsjty nc camtnr gohnwegots gxjsts amrnss tkgsggmnonejgs, tkgrg arg eaoy sjejiarjtjgs. Xkjs ejfkt suffgst tkat tkgrg js igss rnne cnrtrahg0 nog wnuihot gxpgmt ogt rjmg gxpnrtgrs tn trahg a int nc rjmg wjtk gamk ntkgr, nr

prnhumgrs nc tgxtjigs tn trahg a frgat hgai jo tgxtjigs.

Knwgvgr, tkjs cjoai pnjot ogghs sneg quaijcjmatjno. Xrug, tkg inw jomneg mnuotrjgs(IJMs) tkat gxpnrt uos`jiigh iadnr aoh oaturai-rgsnurmg jotgosjvg prnhumts wnuih ont dggxpgmtgh tn trahg eumk wjtk gamk ntkgr, as tkgy spgmjaijzg jo tkg saeg typgs ncknenfgognus prnhumts. ]tjii, tkg ijnos skarg nc findai trahg ta`gs piamg dgtwggohgvginpgh mnuotrjgs wjtk sjejiar camtnr gohnwegots0 tkg hjccgrgomg js tkat tkgy gofafgjo jotra-johustry trahg nc prnhumts wjtk kgtgrnfgognusmkaramtgrjstjms, g.f., autnendjigsaoh gigmtrnojms. Xkgsg prnhumts tgoh tn dg mapjtai- aoh s`jii-jotgosjvg fnnhs0 kgomg, as]nutk aoh ]nutkgast Asjao gmnonejgs envg up tkg vaiug mkajo aoh prnhumg enrgsnpkjstjmatgh prnhumts, tkg pntgotjai cnr frgatgr jotra-rgfjnoai trahg wjii rjsg.

Nog way tn faufg wkgtkgr jotgr-rgfjnoai trahg js uohgrpgrcnrejof wnuih dg tn utjijzgao gmnonegtrjm enhgi nc trahg hgtgrejoatjno tkat aiinws sgparatjno nc rgfjnoai aohono-rgfjnoai gccgmts. Xkg enst pnpuiar enhgi jo tkg jotgroatjnoai trahg ijtgraturg usghcnr tkjs purpnsg js tkg fravjty enhgi, wkjmk pnsjts djiatgrai trahg cinws tn dg a cuomtjnonc hjstaomg-rgiatgh varjadigs, gmnonejm mkaramtgrjstjms nc tkg trahjof gmnonejgs, aohahhjtjnoai gxpiaoatnry varjadigs, jomiuhjof djoary cjxgh-gccgmt (nr hueey) varjadigsij`g rgfjnos. Dy jsniatjof jociugomgs dgynoh pntgotjai rgfjnoai gccgmts, sumk aoapprnamk mao hgtgrejog wkgtkgr trahjof wjtk a rgfjno igahs tn a pnsjtjvg nr ogfatjvgdjas. Nog sumk stuhy nc ]nutk Asjao trahg (A`ktgr aoh Fkaoj 4212) gstjeatgs astatjstjmaiiy sjfojcjmaot, pnsjtjvg ]nutkgast Asjao gccgmt. Nvgr tkg pgrjnh 422=422;, tkgautknrs gstjeatg tkat ]nutk Asjao trahg wjtk A]GAO was 4.8 tjegs kjfkgr tkao nogwnuih gxpgmt mnotrniijof cnr aii ntkgr varjadigs.1Xkjs wnuih suffgst tkat, johggh, tkg

jeprgssjvg rjsg jo jotgr-rgfjnoai trahg kas sneg A]GAO-spgmjcjm uohgrpjoojofs.Knwgvgr, tkjs gccgmt js igss jeprgssjvg wkgo mnepargh wjtk ntkgr stuhjgs gepinyjoffravjty enhgis tn mapturg rgfjnoai gccgmts. Cnr gxaepig, jo a mneprgkgosjvg stuhy nctrahjof dinms tkrnufknut tkg wnrih, Crao`gi (1::6) gstjeatgs tkat A]GAO kah aienst =tjegs as iarfg ao gccgmt. 4 Xkgrgcnrg, tkgrg appgars tn dg sudstaotjai smnpg cnrjomrgasjof trahg dgtwggo tkg twn rgfjnos.

1A`ktar aoh Fkaoj (4212), Xadig 80 ontg tkat tkg gstjeatgh mngccjmjgot no tkg A]GAO djoary varjadig js

2.;;:0 tn jocgr tkg amtuai trahg djas, nog eust ta`g tkg gxpnogot nc 2.;;:, wkjmk js 4.8=.4Xkg gstjeatgh mngccjmjgot was 1.:37 (gxpP1.:37U56.1=).

6


10/33


=. ENHGIJOF MIN]GT ]NWXK A]JA]NWXKGA]XA]JA MNOOGMXJSJXZ

Xkg adnvg aoaiysjs suffgsts tkat gmnonejm jotgfratjno amrnss ]nutk Asja aoh]nutkgast Asja js prnmgghjof dut tkat mrnss-rgfjnoai trahg frnwtk js, pgrkaps, caiijofdginw jts pntgotjai. AHD aoh AHDJ (421=) uohgrsmnrg tkat ealnr dnttigogm`s gxjst tkatsjfojcjmaotiy jepghg tkg rgaijzatjno nc tkjs pntgotjai0 enst ij`giy, tkgsg mnostrajots wjiidgmneg jomrgasjofiy djohjof nvgr tjeg. Xkgsg jomiuhg, cnr gxaepig, sknrtmnejofs jotraospnrt ijo`s (partjmuiariy raji aoh rnah)0 rgiatjvgiy kjfk tarjccs, OXDs, aoh ntkgr pnijmy-johumgh darrjgrs tn trahg0 aoh jssugs rgiatgh tn mustnes migaraomg aoh ahhjtjnoaiaspgmts nc trahg camjijtatjno.

Jeprnvgegots jo sneg nc tkgsg argas wjii dg igss mnstiy tkao ntkgrs< pnijmy rgcnres jotkg arga nc trahg camjijtatjno tgoh tn dg car igss gxpgosjvg tkao dujihjof ogw pnrts aohraji ijo`s. Xkg fnai nc tkjs stuhy wjii dg tn faufg wkgtkgr nr ont jovgstegots jo karhaoh snct jocrastrumturg wjii dg wnrtk tkg jovgstegot. Xkat js, jt cnmusgs no wkat

pntgotjai gmnonejm dgogcjts aoh mnsts mao dg gxpgmtgh vja varjnus hgfrggs nc hggpjotgfratjno. Jo tkjs sgmtjno, wg cjrst mnosjhgr tkg (smarmg) prgvjnus wnr` tkat mnosjhgrstkjs jssug, cniinwgh dy a hgsmrjptjno nc tkg onvgi MFG enhgi usgh jo tkjs stuhy tngstjeatg tkg gmnonejm jepijmatjnos nc hggpgr ]nutk]nutkgast Asjao gmnonejmjotgfratjno.

=.1 Garijgr ]tuhjgs nc Dgogcjts aoh Mnsts nc Mrnss-TgfjnoaiJotgfratjno

]tuhjgs nc dgogcjts aoh mnsts nc frgatgr mnoogmtjvjty dgtwggo ]nutk aoh ]nutkgastAsja arg cgw jo ouedgr, aoh sn car kavg eajoiy cnmusgh no mnoogmtjvjty dgtwggo Johja

aoh A]GAO uohgr tkg auspjmgs nc tkg Gast Asjao ]ueejt.=

Ao gariy stuhy dy Daohara aoh Zu (422=) usgh a findai mneputadig fgograigqujijdrjue (MFG) enhgi tn gvaiuatg tkg gccgmts nc tarjcc gijejoatjno uohgr a ]nutkAsjaA]GAO crgg trahg arga (CXA). Xkgy pgssjejstjmaiiy rgpnrt tkat aii ]nutk Asjaomnuotrjgs, jomiuhjof Johja, wnuih jomur wgicarg inssgs crne sumk ao CXA, wkjig A]GAOas a wknig wnuih sgg enhgst fajos. Knwgvgr, enrg rgmgot aoh mneprgkgosjvgsjeuiatjno stuhjgs rgpnrt hjccgrgot rgsuits.

As part nc tkg wnr` rgiatgh tn tkg Mneprgkgosjvg Asja Hgvginpegot Riao (MAHR)prgpargh dy tkg Gmnonejm Tgsgarmk Jostjtutg cnr A]GAO aoh Gast Asja (GTJA) cnr tkgGast Asjao ]ueejt, @ueafaj gt ai. (421=) usgh tkg JHG/GTJA Fgnfrapkjmai ]jeuiatjnoEnhgi, a hgtajigh rgfjnoai enhgi, tn gstjeatg tkg jepamts no tkg mueuiatjvg jomrgasg nc

FHR nc mnuotrjgs jo tkg twn rgfjnos crne 4212 tn 42=2 rgiatjvg tn tkg dasg masg cnr aouedgr nc mnoogmtjvjty prnlgmts, jomiuhjof tkg Eg`nofJohja Gmnonejm Mnrrjhnr(EJGM), tkg Hawgj aoh @yau`pkyu hggp-sga pnrts jo Eyaoear, aoh tkg JohjaEyaoearXkajiaoh Xrjiatgrai Kjfkway. Cnr tkg EJGM ainog, tkgy cnuoh mueuiatjvgjepamts nc nvgr 7% cnr Maednhja, Eyaoear, Xkajiaoh aoh Sjgt Oae, aoh nvgr 4.7%cnr Johja.

Tgfarhjof trahg jotgfratjno, a MFG stuhy dy Enkaoty aoh Tny (422;) sknws wgicargfajos cnr egedgrs nc tkg A]GAO+=Johja CXA raofjof crne $74 djiijno cnr a sjepigCXA (jovnivjof noiy ijdgraijzatjno nc tarjccs) tn $118 djiijno cnr a enrg mneprgkgosjvgCXA (jovnivjof ijdgraijzatjno nc tarjccs as wgii as rghumtjno jo darrjgrs tn jovgstegot aoh

=

Egedgrs jomiuhg tkg A]GAO egedgrs, Austraija, tkg RTM, Johja, Lapao, Ogw \gaiaoh, aoh tkgTgpudijm nc @nrga.

;


11/33


sgrvjmgs).

Wsjof a sijfktiy hjccgrgot rgfjnoai uojt nc aoaiysjs (A]GAO+= aoh ]nutk Asja), aontkgrstuhy gstjeatgs iarfg fajos nc adnut $432 djiijno, nr 4% nc FHR, crne ao Gast aoh

]nutk Asjao CXA, uohgr mnosgrvatjvg assueptjnos (Craonjs aoh Vjfoarala 422;).Mnuotrjgs ndtajojof rgiatjvgiy iarfg pnsjtjvg jomneg jepamts (nvgr 4%) jomiuhg tkgTgpudijm nc @nrga, Johnogsja, Eaiaysja, tkg Rkjijppjogs, ]jofapnrg, Xkajiaoh, SjgtOae, Johja, aoh ]rj Iao`a.

=.4 MFG Enhgi Wsgh jo Xkjs ]tuhy

Mneputadig fgograi gqujijdrjue (MFG) aoaiysjs ta`gs ammnuot nc jotgramtjnos aenof awjhg raofg nc ear`gts aoh prnvjhgs quaotjtatjvg aoswgrs tn pnijmy qugstjnos adnutjotgfratjno.8 Xkg mrux nc tkg aoaiysjs js tn maimuiatg prjmgs, prnhumtjno, aoh hgeaohigvgis tkat ea`g gxpgohjturgs gquai jomnegs, aoh suppiy gquai hgeaoh jo eaoyear`gts aoh mnuotrjgs. Xn maimuiatg tkg gqujijdrjue, prjmgs arg assuegh tn ahlust uotjimnosuegrs kavg mknsgo a hgsjrgh das`gt nc fnnhs fjvgo tkgjr jomnegs, cjres kavg sgtprnhumtjno at igvgis tkat eaxjejzg prncjts, aoh tkg hgeaoh cnr camtnrs nc prnhumtjnogquais avajiadig gohnwegots. MFG enhgis sjeuiatg tkg gccgmts nc pnijmy joonvatjnossumk as CXAs dy jotrnhumjof tkg gccgmts nc pnijmy mkaofgs (sumk as tarjcc rghumtjnos)jotn a prg-afrggegot gqujijdrjue aoh ahlustjof prjmgs uotji a ogw gqujijdrjue jsrgamkgh.

MFG aoaiysjs usgs hata crne a dgomkear` ygar, aoh jts eatkgeatjmai enhgijof jsdasgh no ognmiassjmai assueptjnos adnut tkg entjvatjno nc gmnonejm afgots, ear`gtstrumturg, mnosuegr prgcgrgomgs, aoh prnhumtjno tgmkoninfy. Xkgsg assueptjnos argmnhgh as eatkgeatjmai rgiatjnoskjps aoh mnotajo paraegtgrs tkat mapturg dgkavjnrairgiatjnoskjps, jomiuhjof giastjmjtjgs (wkjmk egasurg tkg rgspnosjvgogss nc nog varjadig

tn mkaofgs jo aontkgr) aoh prnhumtjno aoh hgeaoh paraegtgrscnr gxaepig, tkgskarg nc cnnh mnosueptjno jo tntai mnosueptjno hgeaoh. Xkg paraegtgrs nc tkgeatkgeatjmai enhgi arg maijdratgh tn ea`g tkg dasgijog sniutjno eatmk rgai-wnrih hatajo a dgomkear` ygar.

Xkg prghjmtjnos nc gmnonejm tkgnry adnut trahg pnijmy nctgo hgpgoh no sumk gepjrjmaiparaegtgrs. MFG enhgis goadig pnijmyea`grs tn assgss sumk quaotjtatjvg jepamts.Cnr gxaepig, jo tkg masg nc CXAs, trahg mrgatjno (fgogratgh dy a enrg gccjmjgothjvjsjno nc iadnr wjtkjo tkg trahg arga) aoh trahg hjvgrsjno (fgogratgh dy jogccjmjgomjgstkat rgsuit crne hjsmrjejoatjno afajost nutsjhgrs) kavg nppnsjof gccgmts, aoh tkg ogtgccgmt eay dg pnsjtjvg nr ogfatjvg. MFG enhgis mao quaotjcy tkg eafojtuhgs nc tkgsggccgmts aoh gstjeatg ogt wgicarg rgsuits.

Xkg MFG enhgi usgh jo tkjs papgr js dasgh no a ogw typg nc findai trahg enhgihgvginpgh dy \kaj (422;). A ogw cgaturg nc tkg enhgi js tkat jt jomnrpnratgs rgmgotjoonvatjnos jo kgtgrnfgognus cjres trahg tkgnry jotn tkg MFG craegwnr`. Xkg cjres ncenst sgmtnrs jo tkg enhgi arg kgtgrnfgognus jo prnhumtjvjty, goadijof tkg enhgi tnrgcigmt jotra-johustry mkaofgs tkat nmmur wkgo, cnr gxaepig, trahg ijdgraijzatjno goadigstkg enst prnhumtjvg cjres tn gxpnrt enrg aoh gxpaoh, aoh tkg igast prnhumtjvg tnmnotramt jo tkg camg nc stjccgr jepnrt mnepgtjtjno. Fjvgo tkg cjxgh mnst nc gotry jotngxpnrtjof amtjvjty, tkg enhgi js aisn adig tn mapturg dntk tkg jotgosjvg earfjos (enrgtrahg nc airgahy trahgh prnhumts) aoh gxtgosjvg earfjos (trahg jo prnhumts ont trahghprgvjnusiy).

8

A mnepigtg hgsmrjptjno nc tkg enhgi usgh jo tkjs stuhy mao dg cnuoh jo Rgtrj gt. ai. (4214) nr at tkgassnmjatgh wgdsjtg< www.asjapamjcjmtrahg.nrf.

:


12/33


Xkjs enhgi js gspgmjaiiy apprnprjatg cnr assgssjof tkg jepijmatjnos nc hggp jotgfratjnogccnrts. Jts hgeaoh strumturg goadigs jt tn tram` tkg gccgmts nc ahhjtjnoai varjgtjgs ncfnnhs no mnosuegr wgicarg0 jts smaig-sgosjtjvg prnhumtjno cuomtjno aiinws jt tn tram`prnhumtjvjty fajos assnmjatgh wjtk tkg frnwtk nc cjres0 aoh jts trgategot nc prnhumtjvjtyvarjatjnos ea`gs jt pnssjdig tn tram` tkg skjct jo prnhumtjno crne rgiatjvgiy uoprnhumtjvgcjres tn rgiatjvgiy prnhumtjvg nogs.

8. G]XJEAXG] NC GCCGMX] NC ]NWXK A]JAO]NWXKGA]X A]JAO GMNONEJM JOXGFTAXJNO

Jo tkg sjeuiatjnos dginw, tkg papgr usgs sgvgrai smgoarjns tn mapturg tkg gccgmts nc]nutk Asja]nutkgast Asjao gmnonejm jotgfratjno no gmnonejm wgicarg, trahg, camtnrrgturos, aoh strumturai mkaofg cnr tkg rgfjnoai gmnonejgs, gamk mnrrgspnohjof tnhjccgrjof igvgis nc jotgfratjno aedjtjno. Xkg pnijmy joonvatjnos jomiuhg cuii ijdgraijzatjnonc tarjcc darrjgrs, a 72% rghumtjno nc ono-tarjcc darrjgrs (OXDs) (uohgr tkg assueptjno

tkat ont aii OXDs mao dg ahhrgssgh dy pnijmy), aoh jeprnvgegots jo (snct aoh karh)mnoogmtjvjty eaojcgstgh jo hgmrgasgs jo trahg mnstsenhgigh as jmgdgrf trahgmnstswkjmk arg aiinwgh tn egit tn varjnus hgfrggs hgpgohjof no tkg smgoarjn. Jotgres nc rghumtjno jo trahg mnsts tkg papgr assuegs twn pnssjdjijtjgs nc trahg-mnstrghumtjno tn prnvjhg a raofg nc gccjmjgomy fajos hug tn dgttgr mnoogmtjvjty, j.g., 7% aoh17%. Fjvgo rgiatjvgiy kjfk jotgr-rgfjnoai trahg mnsts aoh aepig rnne tn rghumg tkgevja trahg camjijtatjno aoh jovgstegot jo karh jocrastrumturg (AHD aoh AHDJ 421=), tkjsraofg was hggegh tn dg piausjdig. Kgomg, tkg smgoarjns jomiuhgh kgrg arg Jt wnuih arfuadiy sgge sn jo tkg masg nc A]GAO0 tkg A]GAOCrgg Xrahg Arga (ACXA) js airgahy gssgotjaiiy jo piamg, aoh wkjig jt js hjccjmuit tn faufggxamtiy tn wkat hgfrgg OXDs kavg caiigo no jotra-A]GAO trahg, tkgy arg siatgh tn dgrgenvgh aitnfgtkgr dy tkg goh nc 4217 (wjtk enrg tjeg cnr tkg traosjtjnoai A]GAOgmnonejgs) ammnrhjof tn tkg AGM Diugprjot. Jt js ont uorgasnoadig tn dgijgvg tkat kaicwjii kavg dggo rgenvgh dy tkgo. Gxtgohjof tkgsg jojtjatjvgs tn ]nutk Asja wnuih ta`gsneg hnjof, dut A]GAO aoh Johja arg airgahy jo ogfntjatjnos uohgr tkg TgfjnoaiGmnonejm Mneprgkgosjvg Rartogrskjp (TMGR) aoh, jo tkg past, tkgrg kas dggoegedgr mnuotry suppnrt cnr euitjiatgraijzjof jotra-A]GAO trahg ijdgraijzatjno.

A djffgr qugstjno rgfarhs wkgtkgr sumk trahg ijdgraijzatjno js rgasnoadig jo tkg masg nc]nutk Asja. Xkg ]nutk Asjao CXA caiis wgii sknrt nc jotra-rgfjnoai crgg trahg, aoh OXDsadnuoh jo ]nutk Asja (sgg Vggra`nno P4212U). Xkg pnijtjmai suppnrt cnr ijdgraijzatjno jsrjsjof jo enst mnuotrjgs jo ]nutk Asja dut js ont no tkg igvgi nc tkat nc ]nutkgast Asja,wkjmk arfuadiy kas tkg enst ijdgrai trahg pnijmjgs jo tkg hgvginpjof wnrih. Knpgcuiiy,jhgotjcjmatjno nc pntgotjai fajoscrne tkjs aoh ntkgr stuhjgswjii duttrgss pnijtjmaisuppnrt.

Xkg iarfgst fajos crne jotgfratjno rgfarh tkg rghumtjno jo trahg mnsts, wkjmk tkg papgrassuegs hgrjvg crne a mnedjoatjno nc trahg camjijtatjno jeprnvgegots aoh jovgstegotsjo karh jocrastrumturg. Xkg 7% rghumtjno jo trahg mnsts wnuih sgge tn dg qujtgrgasnoadig dy aoy egasurg0 tkg Asja-Ramjcjm Gmnonejm Mnnpgratjno (ARGM) kas dggoadig tn hn tkat no a vniuotary dasjs, aoh tkjs jo tkg mnotgxt nc eaoy egedgr mnuotrjgswkn airgahy kavg muttjof-ghfg karh aoh snct jocrastrumturg aoh cjrst dgst trahgpramtjmgs. Xkg 17% rghumtjno js ndvjnusiy enrg aedjtjnus, dut fjvgo tkg gxjstjof kjfkmnsts nc trahg jo ]nutk Asja, tkjs smgoarjn wnuih aisn dg mrghjdig (AHD aoh AHDJP421=U suffgst tkat tkg fajos vja trahg camjijtatjno aoh karh jocrastrumturg mnuih dgmnosjhgradiy enrg tkao tkat).

Xkg gepjrjmai ijtgraturg js suppnrtjvg nc tkg assueptjno tkat gmnonejm jotgfratjno mnuihigah tn mnosjhgradig fajos vja rghumjof trahg mnsts. Cnr gxaepig, Drnn`s, Tniaoh-Knist, aoh \kaj (4227) ruo sjeuiatjnos tn mneparg tkg affrgfatg jepamt no rgaijomneg, gxpnrts, aoh tgres nc trahg jo tkg mnotgxt nc hggp Asjao jotgfratjno. Xkgyassueg tkat ono-pnijmy-rgiatgh trahg mnsts arg arnuoh 142% aoh arg mut dy kaic nvgr a42-ygar pgrjnh cnr Gast Asja, ]nutkgast Asja, aoh ]nutk Asja0 tkgy cjoh sumk aoapprnamk jomrgasgs fajos nvgr a staoharh tarjcc-dasgh smgoarjn dy eaoy tjegs, mnejoftn ;.1%7=.;%, =7.7%113.3%, aoh 12.844.8% nc FHR, rgspgmtjvgiy. Hg Hjns (4223)gstjeatgs tkat a 12% savjof jo traospnrt mnsts ainog jomrgasgs trahg dy apprnxjeatgiy3%. Vjisno aoh ]kgpkgrh (422;) sknw tkat tkg fajos crne jeprnvgegots jo trahgcamjijtatjno jo A]GAO yjgih car frgatgr fajos tkao mneparadig tarjcc rgcnres. Cnrgxaepig, jeprnvjof pnrt camjijtjgs ainog jo A]GAO gxpaohs trahg dy 6.7%. Gstjeatgs nc

tkg gccgmts nc jeprnvgegots jo jocrastrumturg hgvginpegot ontgh jo tkg AGM Diugprjot

1;


21/33


no tkg A]GAO-8 mnuih jomrgasg pgr mapjta FHR jo tkgsg mnuotrjgs dy 4%14%(Riueegr aoh Mkja 422:, Mkaptgr 7).

Xkus, tkg uohgriyjof assueptjnos wjtk rgspgmt tn trahg mnsts no tkg nrhgr nc 7%17%arg ont ogmgssarjiy iarfg wjtk rgspgmt tn tkg gxjstjof ijtgraturg, aoh jo eaoy ways tkg

rgsuits wnuih dg mnosjstgot wjtk wkat tkg (rgiatjvgiy sparsg) ijtgraturg hgrjvgs. Jo aoygvgot, jt js migar tkat tkgsg rghumtjnos jo trahg mnsts eattgr a frgat hgai aoh, kgomg,oggh tn dg a prjeary cnmus nc pnijmyea`grs.

A sgmnoh sgt nc qugstjnos wnuih rgfarh tkg enhgi jtsgic. Ndvjnusiy, aoy tramtadiggepjrjmai trahg enhgi kas jts sknrtmnejofs, dut MFG enhgis kavg gstadijskghtkgesgivgs as a staoharh tgmkojqug. Xkg MFG enhgi gepinygh jo tkjs stuhy usgsmuttjof-ghfg trahg tkgnry assueptjnos, sumk as kgtgrnfgognus cjre prnhumtjvjty, wkjmkigah tn iarfgr rgsuits mnepargh tn tkg staoharh assueptjno nc knenfgognus cjres.Xkg ijtgraturg suffgsts (g.f., \kaj 422;) tkat tkg iattgr assueptjno js igss mnosjstgotwjtk ndsgrvgh cjre dgkavjnr aoh, jo camt, gxpiajos tn sneg hgfrgg wky gx pnstaoaiysgssknw tkat garijgr MFG enhgis sgge tn sjfojcjmaotiy uohgrgstjeatg tkg gccgmts nc

rgfjnoai jotgfratjno. Enrgnvgr, jt js jepnrtaot tn ontg tkat tkg enhgi hngs ont jomiuhgCHJ, wkjmk kas dggo sknwo tn jomrgasg sjfojcjmaotiy tkg pntgotjai gccgmts nc rgfjnoaijotgfratjno (Rgtrj, gt. ai. 4214) aoh, jo camt, js ao jepnrtaot attramtjno cnr Asjao mnuotrjgsgotgrjof jotn rgfjnoai mnnpgratjno afrggegots. Kgomg, wkjig tkg rgsuits nc aii trahgenhgis arg sudlgmt tn tkg uohgriyjof assueptjnos usgh tn dujih tkge, aoy pntgotjaiupwarh djasgs, g.f., jo tgres nc jts usg nc ogw trahg tkgnry aoh jts usg nc staoharhMFG eamrn minsurgs, arg mnepgosatgh at igast jo part dy hnwowarh djasgs.

7. MNOMIW]JNO]

Jo sue, tkg fajos crne jotgr-rgfjnoai gmnonejm jotgfratjno arg, johggh, iarfg cnr

gssgotjaiiy aii mnuotrjgs. Jo fgograi, tkg hggpgr tkg jotgfratjno smgoarjns, tkg frgatgrtkg fajos. Tghumjof trahg mnsts jo tkg rgfjno fgogratgs tkg enst jepnrtaot fajos, dutsn hngs rgenvjof OXDs aoh tarjccs (jo tkg mnotgxt nc ]nutk Asja jo partjmuiar). No tkgwknig, ]nutk Asja hngs eumk dgttgr jo tkg mnotgxt nc a mrnss-rgfjnoai CXA tkao wjtkegrgiy ao jotra-rgfjnoai CXA0 stjii, tkg rgsuits suppnrt a twn-tram` apprnamk tngmnonejm mnnpgratjno no tkg part nc ]nutk Asjao mnuotrjgs, tkat js, strgoftkgojof jotra-rgfjnoai jotgfratjno wjtk ]nutk Asjao partogrs mnomnejtaot wjtk ijo`s tn ]nutkgast Asja.Enrgnvgr, dy hggpgojof ijo`s wjtk ]nutk Asja, ]nutkgast Asja js adig tn dgogcjt crnefrgatgr ear`gt ammgss aoh mnst rghumtjnos jo a rgiatjvgiy prntgmtgh ]nutk Asjao rgfjno,igahjof tn frgatgr fajos (a 3.8% rjsg jo rgai jomneg rgiatjvg tn FHR) tkao gvgo jo tkgmasg nc tkg AGM, wkgrg Rgtrj gt ai. (4214), cnr gxaepig, gstjeatgs a rgfjnoai fajo ncadnut 7%. Gxpnrts tgoh tn dg ao jepnrtaot hrjvgr nc fajos jo aii smgoarjns, dut

partjmuiariy jo tkg mnotgxt nc a ]nutk Asja]nutkgast Asja CXA cnr tkg iarfgr ]nutkAsjao gmnonejgs. Enrgnvgr, a ]nutk Asja-]nutkgast Asja CXA wnuih jomrgasgsjfojcjmaotiy tkg jotgroatjnoaijzatjno nc gspgmjaiiy tkg ]nutk Asjao gmnonejgs, ahhjof :pgrmgotafg pnjots tn tkg gxpnrts/FHR ratjn cnr Johja aoh Ra`jstao aoh 13=4pgrmgotafg pnjots jo tkg masg nc tkg ntkgr ]nutk Asjao gmnonejgs. Johggh, tkgjotgroatjnoaijzatjno nc tkg Ogpaigsg gmnoney rjsgs dy aienst nog tkjrh, aoh nc tkgNtkgr ]nutk Asjao gmnonejgs, dy enrg tkao nog cnurtk.

Jo sknrt, tkg gstjeatgs fgogratgh dy tkg MFG enhgi usgh jo tkjs papgr ea`g a strnofmasg cnr hggpgr jotra- aoh mrnss-rgfjnoai gmnonejm mnnpgratjno as wgii as jojtjatjvgstkat inwgr tkg mnst nc hnjof dusjogss aoh trahg, gspgmjaiiy jo ]nutk Asja, vjajovgstegots jo frgatgr mnoogmtjvgiy tkrnufk jeprnvgh karh aoh snct jocrastrumturg. AHD

aoh AHDJ (421=) suffgst knw tkjs ejfkt dg hnog jo tgres nc jeprnvjof trahg

1:


22/33


camjijtatjno-rgiatgh varjadigs, jovgstegots jo traospnrt jocrastrumturg aoh ntkgr argassumk as gogrfy, aoh jeprnvgh cjoaomjai jostjtutjnos tkat camjijtatg jovgstegot aohprnvjhg trahg cjoaomg.

As a cjoai ontg, hraeatjm jomrgasgs jo gccjmjgomy aiways hgrjvg crne strumturai mkaofg.

Enrgnvgr, jt mao mkaofg tkg hjstrjdutjno nc jomneg jo ways tkat mnuih gxamgrdatggxjstjof prndiges, sumk as tkg trgoh tnwarh rjsjof jomneg jogquaijty jo eaoy Asjaogmnonejgs sjomg tkg findai cjoaomjai mrjsjs. Xkjs hngs ont suffgst tkat tkg jojtjatjvgssknuih ont dg gedramgh0 jt noiy uohgrsmnrgs tkg jepnrtaomg nc amtjvg fnvgroegotpnijmjgs tn camjijtatg gmnonejm jotgfratjno aoh gosurg tkat tkg djf wjoogrs ncjotgfratjno wjii mnepgosatg tkg enst vuiogradig tkat insg crne jt.

42


23/33


TGCGTGOMG]

AHD aoh AHDJ. 421=. Mnoogmtjof ]nutk Asja aoh ]nutkgast Asja< Jotgrje Tgpnrt.

Xn`yn< AHDJ.A`ktgr, O., aoh G. Fkaoj. 4212. Tgfjnoai Jotgfratjno jo ]nutk Asja< Ao Aoaiysjs nc

Xrahg Cinws Wsjof tkg Fravjty Enhgi. Xkg Ra`jstao Hgvginpegot Tgvjgw8:(4) AQuaotjtatjvg Gmnonejm Assgssegot. Xkg Vnrih Gmnoney43(:)< 14:=1=4=.

Drnn`s, H. K., H. Tniaoh-Knist, aoh C. \kaj. 4227. Asjas Inof-Xgre Frnwtk aohJotgfratjno< Tgamkjof dgynoh Xrahg Rnijmy Darrjgrs. GTH Rnijmy Drjgc On. =;.Eaojia< AHD.

Hasfupta, H., O. Rjtjfaia, aoh L. Fnurhno. 4214. ]nutk Asjas Gmnonejm Rrnspgmts

crne Findai Tgdaiaomjof aoh Jotgfratjno. Jo Gmnonejm Tgcnre Rrnmgssgs jo]nutk Asja< Xnwarh Rnijmy Gccjmjgomy, ghjtgh dy R. Hgg. Adjofhno, W@

Documents

Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian-Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach