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10/7/16
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EconomicImpactsofCaltrain Modernization
DR.JONHAVEMANCHIEFECONOMIST
BAYAREACOUNCILECONOMICINSTITUTE
September10,2012
• LaunchedbySouthernPacificin1863,Caltrainpassesthrough17cities,spanning3countiesandservesover3millionresidents.
• Today,Caltrainprovidesover40,000dailytrips andisgrowingrapidlyalongwiththefast-growingtechnologycompaniesofSiliconValley,thePeninsulaandSanFrancisco.
THESYSTEM
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THEPROJECT• Replacementofexistingdiesellocomotivesandtraincarswith
ElectricMultipleUnit(EMU)trains.
• Constructionofassociatedpowerinfrastructure,knownastheOverheadContactSystem(OCS).
• InstallationofPositiveTrainControl(PTC),amodernsignalingandtraincontrolsystem.• FederalmandaterequiresPTCby2015.
ImagecourtesyofCaltrain
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COST
ProjectComponent EstimatedCost($Millions)
ElectrificationInfrastructure 785
AdvancedSignalSystem 231
EMUTrains 440
Total 1,456
BayAreaCouncilEconomicInstituteCalculationsbasedonCaltraindata.Figuresinyear-of-expendituredollars.
ECONOMICBENEFITSComeinthreecategories:
uLocaljobsandeconomicactivityduringconstruction,
uChangesinrealpropertyvalues,and
uTheeconomicvalueassociatedwithimprovedservice
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CONSTRUCTIONIMPACTS• Ofthe$1.456totalprojectcost,itisestimatedthataround
$1.11billionwillbespentintheBayArea.
• Theresultingimpactof$1.11billioninconstructionexpenditure:• 4,500FTEjob-yearsintheconstructionsectoralone.• Almost9,600FTEjob-yearsintotal.• $951millioninincreasedeconomicoutput(GDP).
PROPERTYVALUEIMPACTS• TheCaltrainModernizationProgramislikelytoincrease
propertyvaluesandpropertytaxesnearCaltrain:• Enhancedserviceintheformoffastertriptimesand/ormore
frequentservicewillaffectthedesirabilityofpropertiesnearCaltrainstations.
• Environmentalfactorssuchasimprovedairquality,reducedvibrationlevelsandalterednoisepatternswillaffectpropertiesnearthetracks,andnewpowerfacilitiesmayaestheticallyimpactadjacentproperties.
• Increasesinpropertyvalueswillalsohaveaneffectonoverallpropertytaxcollections.
• ThetotalvalueoftheCaltrainModernizationProgramonpropertyvaluesisapositive$904.5million.
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TOTALIMPACT• Overalleconomicbenefitsofupto$2.5billion.• Almost9,600FTEjob-years.• PropertyvaluesinlocationsnearCaltrainstationstoincreaseby
upto$1billion, stemmingfromenhancedservice.• Benefitstoridersofupto$371millionintimesavings• Increaseinpropertytaxrevenuesbyupto$59millionforlocal
governments.• Generationof$71millioninstateandlocaltaxes.
OTHERBENEFITS• Reducesgreenhousegasemissionsandunhealthydiesel
particlesbyreplacingexistingdieseltrainswithelectrictrains.
• Electrification/Modernizationincreasesridershipcapacityoftheoverallsystem,allowingCaltraintokeeppacewithrecord,growingridership.
• Improvedservicewillattractmoreridersandincreaserevenue,reducingtheannualsubsidyrequiredtooperatethesystem.
• IncreaseddemandforTransitOrientedDevelopment.
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TransbayTransitCentercross-section.RenderingcourtesyoftheTransbayJointPowersAuthority
DR.JONHAVEMANCHIEFECONOMIST
WWW.BAYAREAECONOMY.ORG