© Fraunhofer ISI

Europan Parliament, Brussels, April 11, 2017C. Doll, L. Mejia-Dorantes (Fraunhofer ISI), J.M. Vassallo (UPM)

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INTRODUCING ROAD CHARGING FOR HGVS. COMPARING GERMANY AND SPAIN

Sources: Toll Collect (left), www.gettyimages.co.uk (right)

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AGENDA

� Objectives and Framework

� Toolbox of methods

� Comparison of the toll systems

� Results by topic area

� Final remarks

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Objec t i ves and f ramework o f the s tudy

� Objectives

� Understand how the HGV toll systems in

Germany and Spain work.

� Assess their impacts on:

� Logistics markets and company

structures;

� Economy and financing;

� Safety and environment.

� Develop recommendations for expanding

the Spanish system in

� La Rionja, North-East Spain and

� Jaén, Southern Spain

� Some key data

� Client: Transport &

Environment, Brussels

� Coordination:

Fraunhofer ISI,

Karlsruhe, Germany

� Partner: Polytechnic

University of Madrid

(UPM), Spain

� Duration: 03.-10.2016

� Budget: 40 000 €

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Too lbox fo r an in tegra ted impac t assessment

Impact Assessment

Logistics market, labour

conditions, economy, financing, sustainability

ASTRA-EC System-

Dynamics integrated

assessment model

Supportive questionnaire

and interviews with

stakeholders

Literature

review

National &

regional

statistical data analysis

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Compar ison o f the German and the Span ish to l l sys tems

Issue Germany Spain

Start 2005 Late 1960s

Purpose Road quality, mode shift, environment

New high capacity & quality roads

Organi-

sation

Public. private

contractor for toll

collection

32 companies

including actual and

shadow tolls

Length

of toll

roads

15000 km motorway-

like roads; 55000 km

from 2018.

3307 km national

(83%) & regional

roads

Revenue Stable at €4.3 bn.

p.a., 40% by foreign

trucks

2002: €2.2 bn.,

2012: €1.3 bn. ,

domestic truckers mainly

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Resu l t s (1 ) : T ranspor t E f f i c iency

Criterion Germany Spain

Share of emptyruns

20% consolidation before 2005, little toll impact

43%no tendency for consolidation

Share of small hauliers

48%With ≤50 employees,

some toll impact

91%with ≤5 employees,

mainly family business

International competition

38%Foreign truckers on

German roads

<10%foreign haulage;protected market

Rail / shipping share at tkm

18% / 10%Stagnating; +5% rail tkm with double toll

6% / 36%Rail barriers; +12% tkm

with German toll

• Efficiency gains through company restructuring

• Mode shift needs high quality alternatives

Spain

Italy

France

Germany

Europe

Distance travelled per ton lifted

Share of loaded trips

Utilizationo f loaded vehicles

Overall efficiency

in trucking

Efficient use of truck load space (DE)

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Resu l t s (2 ) : Economic Per fo rmance

Criterion Germany Spain

Cost increase for truckers

2% - 3%Transport costs +15%; 80% born by industry

3% - 5%Weak position due to

atomised market

Profit margins 1% - 6%Larger margins for big

companies

n.a.with ≤5 employees,

mainly family business

Consumer price impact

+0,5%2%-3% share of tolls at

product costs

n.a.Literature suggests similar to Germany

GDP growth / employment

+/- 02nd round impacts / use

of revenues decisive

+0,13%Rich regions gain more;

inequality remains

• Haulage sector impacts depend on company structures

• Macro economic impacts small and driven by revenue use

82% 80%75%

68% 70%

60%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Sh

are

at

tota

l lo

gis

tics

co

mp

an

ies

Logistics companies <50 employees in Germany

91.0% 91.8%

5.1% 4.7%2.5% 2.3%1.4% 1.3%

2007 2011

Goods road transport enterprises, by number

of employees in Spain

From 1 to 5 employees From 6 to 9 employees

From 10 to 19 employees From 20 to 49 employees

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Resu l t s (3 ) : Budget , Revenues and In f ras t ruc tu re

Criterion Germany Spain

Annual Revenues

4.3 bn. €Stable over past years; system extension 2018

1.3 bn. €Drop from €2.2 bn. in

2002 with crises

Road deficit / funding gap

4 bn. €Unclear use of toll

revenues

6.6 bn. €Bankruptcy risk for concessionaires

Infrastructurequality

Declining20% of bridges in alarming condition

DecliningMassive funding gap

through economic crisis

• Sunk cost coverage needs high traffic density

• Close funding cycles needed

• Intermodal infrastructures need clear cross-funding arrangements

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Resu l t s (4 ) : Sus ta inab i l i t y

Criterion Germany Spain

External costs in base case 2030 / 2010

+2%Growing CO2 unit costs;

efficient fleet

-48%per HGV km. Older / less

efficient fleet

Change in extgernal costs due to tolls

-0.5%due to emission

differentiated tariffs

<-0.06%Low density; mode shift

to (clean) shipping

Climate gas emissions

-0.07%Conservative w.r.t.

propulsion technology

<-0.06%Less budget for fleet

renewal

• Overall environmental impacts remain limited

• Environmental effects driven by tariff structure

• Differentiated tariffs require costly charging system

Less than 2

years

10%

2-3 years

7%

4-5 years

8%

6-10 years

33%11-15

years

19%

more than

15 years

23%

Total

Age structure of the Spanish truck fleet2015

German truck fleet by Euro standard 2005-2015

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Fina l Remarks

� Road tolls are primarily an instrument of fund raising

� The sustainability of road tolls depends on:

� Use of revenues

� Structure of tariffs

� The economic impact depends on local conditions

� Small hauliers need special attention

� No major macro-economic impacts

� New introduction of extension of tolls needs communication

� Check the situation of local businesses

� Involve all stakeholders

� Consider alternatives to distance based tolls for peripheral countries