L±n a^×Ñì@KS

ECONOMIC FOCUS

Bulletin of the Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)

VOL. 6 NO. 3

January 2004

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EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Assefa Admassie

GUEST EDITOR

Befekadu Degefe

EDITORIAL BOARD

Alemayehu Seyoum Alemu Mekonnen

Eyob Tesfaye Getnet Alemu

Gezahegn Ayele Ishak Diwan

Web Postmaster

Metasebia Zelalem

© Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA)

All rights reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form without a written permission from the Ethiopian Economic Association.

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TRg#M¿ BR¦n# gbyh# Economic Governance and Ethiopia’s

Development – Some Reflections Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse

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l@lÖC

/Promoting Stability in the Horn of Africa

David Shinn/

P. O. BOX TELEPHONE FAX ADDIS ABABA

34282 234359/113670 234363 ETHIOPIA

E-mail Address: eea@telecom.net.et Website: www.eeaecon.org

THIS BULLETIN AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS OF THE EEA ARE

SPONSORED BY FREIDRICH EBERT STIFTUNG OF GERMANY

(FES), EMBASSIES OF UK, SWEDEN, NORWAY, NETHERLANDS

AND THE AFRICAN CAPACITY BUILDING FOUNDATION (ACBF)

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Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 1 Ethiopian Economic Association

›=¢„T>Á© ›e}ÇÅ`“ ¾›=ƒÄåÁ MTƒ& ›”Ç”É Ó”³u?­‹*

›KT¾G< Y¿U •ðc

TRg#M¿ BR¦n# gbyh#

ከሁለ አስቀዴሜ ይህን የርዕይ 2020 ውይይት መዴረክ ያዘጋጀውን የኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚክስ ባሇሙያዎች ማህበር ከዛሬ በፊት በተዯረጉት ተከታታይ ውይይቶች አማካኝነት ስሊከናወነው ውጤታማ ተግባር እንኳን ዯስ አሊችሁ እንዴሌ ይፈቀዴሌኝ፡፡ የውይይት መዴረኩ ጠቃሚነት ተዯጋግሞ የተነገረና የተመሰከረሇት በመሆኑ ብዙ ማሇት ጊዜ መፍጀት ይመስሇኛሌ፡፡ እኔም በዚህ መዴረክ ሊይ ሃሳቤን አሰማ ዘንዴ ማህበሩ ስሇጋበዘኝ ከፍተኛ ምስጋና ሊቀርብ እወዲሇሁ፡፡

ዛሬ የምናገርበት ርዕስ፣ ኢኮኖሚያዊ አስተዲዯርና የኢትዮጵያ ሌማት፤ አንዲንዴ ግንዛቤዎች የሚሌ ነው፡፡ ንግግሬ ሶስት ክፍልች አለት፡፡ በመጀመሪያው ክፍሌ የንግግሬ እምብርት ስሇሆነው የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር (economic governance) ምንነትና ባህርያት አንዲንዴ ነጥቦችን በማብራራት፣ በኢትዮጵያ የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ይዞታ ምን እንዯሚመስሌ ሇማሳየት እሞክራሇሁ፡፡ በጽሁፌ ሁሇተኛ ክፍሌ፣ በ2020 ዓ.ም በአገራችን ይሆን ዘንዴ የምመኘውን ርዕዬን አመሇክታሇሁ፡፡ በመጨረሻው ክፍሌም፣ በአሻጋሪ የምመሇከተው ይህ ርዕይ እውነታ ይሆን ዘንዴ፣ ኢትዮጵያውያን እንዯ ዜጋና እንዯ ህብረተሰብ ዯረጃ በዯረጃ እንፈጽማቸው ዘንዴ ይገባናሌ ብዬ የማምንባቸውን አንዲንዴ ተግባራት ነዯፍ ነዯፍ አዯርጋሇሁ፡፡

መነሻ ወዯ ዋናው ጉዲይ ከመዝሇቄ በፊት ዛሬ የምናገርበትን ርዕስ እንዴመርጥ ስሊነሳሱኝ ምክንያቶች መገሇጽ እፈሌጋሇሁ#፡፡ ስሇምናገርበት ጉዲይ ትክከሇኛውን አቅጣጫና የሚመጥን ስሜትን ሇመፍጠር ይረዲሌ ብዬ ስሊመንኩ ነው በዚህ አጭር ገሇጻ የምጀምረው፡፡

ባሇፈው ሰሞን፣ በኢትዮጵያውያን ዴሃ ህጻናት ህይወት ሊይ የሚያተኩርና ስሜቴን በእጅጉ የነካ፣ በእንግሉዝ ህጻናት አዴን ዴርጅት የተዘጋጀ አንዴ ድኩመንተሪ ፊሌም ተመሌክቼ ነበር፡፡ በርካታ ዴሃ ሰዎችን አውቃሇሁ፤ ከስጋ ዘመድቼም ብዙዎቹ የዴህነትን ህይወት የሚገፉ ናቸው፡፡ ብዙም የማያወሊዲ መካከሇኛ ገቢ ካሇው ቤተሰብ የተወሇዴኩ በመሆኔ፣ ብዙ ዴሃ ቤተሰቦች ከሚያጋጥሟቸው የኢኮኖሚ ችግሮች አንዲንድቹን በግብር አውቃቸዋሇሁ፡፡ እንዯ ማንኛውም ሰው እኔም በጎዲና ሊይ ከሚኖሩ ዴሃ ሌጆች ጋር ነጋ ጠባ እገናኛሇሁ፡፡ ነገር ግን ያንን ፊሌም እስካየሁበት ሰዓት ዴረስ ከዴሆች ሌጆች ጋር የነበረኝ ግንኙነት አንዴም፣ ብዙ ጊዜ እርዲታ/ምጽዋት በመጠየቅና ሽርፍራፊ ገንዘብ በመወርወር የሚገሇጽ የሰው-ሇሰው (person to person) ግንኙነት፤ አሌያም ስሇ ዴህነትና የኑሮ ሁኔታ (well-

being) በማዯርጋቸው ጥናቶች የተጠኝው ማህበረሰብ አንዴ ክፍሌ ሆነው በመገኘታቸው የሚገሇጽ ረቂቅ (abstract) ነበር፡፡ ያንን የዴሀ ሌጆችን የህይወት ገጽታዎች የሰነዯውን ፊሌም ካየሁ በኋሊ ነበር፣ ዴሃ ህጻናት ወገኖቻችን ሇመጀመሪያ ጊዜ፣ እንዯ ላሊው ጊዜ በቀጥታ ሳይማጸኑ፣ በራሳቸው አንዯበት አኗኗራቸውን፣ ፍሊጎቶቻቸውንና ተስፋቸውን በመግሇጽ ብቻ፣ የእርዲታ ጥሪ ሲያሰሙ ያስተዋሌኩት፡፡ ያ የሰማሁት የሌጆቹ የዴረሱሌን ጥሪ፣ መከሊከያና መሸፋፈኛ አዴርጌያቸው እኖር የነበሩትን ሌግስናን (ምጽዋትን) እና የማህበራዊ ጉዲዮች ተመራማሪ የሚመራባቸውን ምክንያታዊነትንና ገሇሌተኛነትን፣ በመዝሇቅ እውነተኛውን የዴህነት ገጽታና ትርጓሜ ገሌጾሌኛሌ፣ ዴሃ ሌጅ መሆን ማሇትም ምን ማሇት እንዯሆነ አስገንዝቦኛሌ፡፡

በዚያ የመገሇጥ አፍታ፣ እኔም ወሊጅ ነኝና መጀመሪያ ወዯራሴ ሌጆች፣ ቀጥልም፣ ሌጆቼ አዴገው ወሊጅ ሇመሆን ሲበቁ ስሇሚኖሩዋቸው ሌጆች አሰብኩ፡፡ እናም፣ ሌጆቼም እንኳን ባይሆኑ የሌጅ ሌጆቼ በፊሌሙ ሊይ ያየኋቸውን ሌጆች አይነት የችግር ህይወት እንዲይወዴቅባቸው የሚያስችሌ አስተማማኝ መከሊከያ መፍትሄ በአገራችን ውስጥ አሇ

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* የኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚክስ ባሇሙያዎች ማህበር ባዘጋጀው ርዕይ 2020 መዴረክ ጥር 21 ቀን 1996 ዓ.ም የተዯረገ ንግግር፡፡

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 2 Ethiopian Economic Association

ወይ ብዬ ጠየቅሁ፡፡ ሇተዯሊዯሇ ማህበራዊ ኑሮ (decent opportunities) ዋስትና ያሇማቋረጥ የሚያዴግ ሕያው ኢኮኖሚ

(dynamic economy) እስከሆነና ይህ አይነቱ ኢኮኖሚ ዯግሞ

በኢትዮጵያ ገና እስካሊቆጠቆጠ ዴረስ የሌጅ ሌጆቼ በፊሌሙ ያየኋቸውን ዴሃ ሌጆች አይነት የመከራ ኑሮ እንዯማይጠብቃቸው የሚያረጋግጥ ሁነኛ ምክንያት የሇም ከሚሌ መዯምዯሚያ ሊይ ዯረስኩ፡፡

ሇመጀመሪያ ጊዜም፣ ዴህነት የተመናመነበት የበሇጸገ ህብረተሰብ ሇመገንባት ኢኮኖሚያዊ ጉዲዮቻችንን የምንመራባቸውና የምናስተዲዴርባ ቸው ሁኔታዎች ወሳኝ መሆናቸውን ትርጉም ባሇው መንገዴ ሇመገንዘብ ቻሌኩ፡፡ ሇሌጆቻችን ዴህነት የላሇበት የተሻሇ ዘመን ይመጣ ዘንዴ የአገራችንን ኢኮኖሚያዊ አመራር ይዞታ ሇማሻሻሌና እያንዲንዲችን በነፍስ ወከፍ፣ ሁሊችን ዯግሞ በጋራ በእጅጉ መጣጣር ይኖርብናሌ፡፡ በዛሬው መዴረክ የማዋያችሁ ሀሳቦቼና አስተያየቶቼ ከዚህ ግንዛቤ የመነጩ ናቸው፡፡ ጊዜ በጨመረ ቁጥር ሀሳብ እየበሰሇ፣ እየጠነከረና እየነጠረ ይሄዲሌና በዛሬው መዴረክ የማካፍሊችሁ የሀሳብ ነጸብራቆች (reflections) ወዯፊት የሚሻሻለና የሚያዴጉ ውጥን ሀሳቦች መሆናቸውን ሊስገነዝብ እወዲሇሁ፡፡

ዓሊማዎች ሇዛሬ ምሽት ንግግሬ ዓሊማ አዴርጌ የተነሳሁት፣ ስሇ ኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር በተሇይ ዯግሞ፣ በፖሉሲ አመራረጥ ሂዯት (the process of policy selection) ውስጥ ስሇሚዯረጉ የኢኮኖሚ አመራር ውሳኔዎች (economic management decisions) እና

ውሳኔዎቹ እንዳት እንዯሚከናወኑ ስርዓታዊና በእውቀት ሊይ የተመሰረተ ውይይት ሇመቀስቀስ ነው፡፡ እንዯሚታወቀው የፖሉሲ አመራረጥ ሂዯት በባህርይው ፖሇቲካዊ፣ ኢኮኖሚያዊና ማህበራዊ ገጽታዎች አለት፡፡ ውይይታችን ሁለንም ገጽታዎች ማካተት እንዲሇበት የማምን ቢሆንም፣ የኢኮኖሚክስ ባሇሙያ ነኝና አቅም በፈቀዯው መጠን አስተያየቶቼ በእጅጉ በኢኮኖሚያዊ ጉዲዮች ሊይ የተቀነበቡና የኢኮኖሚክስንና የኢኮኖሚስቶችን ሚና የሚያመሊክቱ ይሆናለ፡፡ እንዱያም ሆኖ በመረጥኩት ርዕሰ—ጉዲይ ዙሪያ የማነሳቸው ነጥቦችና የምሰነዝራቸው ሀሳቦች እንዯ ኢትዮጵያውያን ከፊታችን ስሊለን አማራጭ እዴልችና ስሇተጣለብን ግዳታዎች ሉያወያዩን የሚችለ ይሆናለ የሚሌ ተስፋ አሇኝ፡፡

የመረጥኩት ጉዲይ መጠነ ርዕዩ እጅጉን ሰፊና በርካታ ገጽታዎችም ያለት በመሆኑ፣ በተመረጡ ጭብጦች ሊይ ተወስኖ መናገርን ግዴ ይሊሌ፡፡ ስሇዚህ በዛሬ ምሽት ንግግሬ የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ቁሌፍ ገጽታዎች ከሚባለት ውስጥ በአንዲንድቹ ሊይ በማተኮር ሇውይይት መንዯርዯሪያ የሚሆኑ ሀሳቦችን ሇመሰንዘር እሞክራሇሁ፡፡

ዴፍረት ባይሆንብኝ፣ በንግግሬ መጨረሻም፣ እዚህ ቤት ውስጥ ያሊችሁ ሁለ፣ ስሇ ሌጆቻችሁ፣ የሌጅ ሌጆቻችሁ፣ ስሇአክስት አጎቶቻችሁ ሌጆችና ስሇትውሌዲቸው እጣ ፈንታ እኔ ራሴን ጠይቄው የነበሩትን አይነት ጥያቄዎች ራሳችሁን ትጠይቃሊችሁ ብዬ ተስፋ አዯርጋሇሁ፡፡ ተጨማሪ ዴፍረት ባይሆንብኝም፣ በጥያቄዎቹ አስገዲጅነት ምክንያትም የሚገባውን የሃሳብና የተግባር ጉዞ

ትቀጥሊሊችሁ የሚሌ ተስፋ አሇኝ፡፡ ግምቶች/ እውቆች

(Assumptions/Presumptions)

እንዯ ኢኮኖሚክስ ባሇሙያነቴ መሊምቶቼን/እውቆቼን በመዘርዘር መጀመር ተገቢ ይመስሇኛሌ፡፡ በማንኛውም መንገዴ ቢታሰብ የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ስርዓት (the pattern of economic governance) የአንዴን አገር ቁሳዊ ሀብቶች፣ የዜጎችን እምነቶችና ሌማድች፣ ስጋቶችና ምኞቶች፣ ችልታዎች፣ ዜጎች እንዯ ማህበረሰብ ቀዯም ባሇውና በአሁኑ ዘመን የተከተሎቸውን የውሳኔ አማራጮች (choices)፣ እንዱሁም በአገሪቱ ቁሳዊ ሃብቶችና በዜጎች እምነትና ሌማዴ ሊይ ተመስርተው የበቀለና በዘመናት ውስጥ የዲበሩ ሌዩ ሌዩ ተቋማዊ ስርዓቶች (institutional arrangements) ሁለ ያንጸባርቃለ ብዬ አምናሇሁ፡፡ የዝምዴናው ሀረግ ከላሊ ጎንም ሉመዘዝ ይችሊሌ፡፡ አንዴ አገር የሚከተሇው የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ስርዓት፣ በዜጎች እምነቶች፣ ሌማድችና ምርጫዎች፣ እንዱሁም በጠቅሊሊ ዯህንነታቸው (their well-being) ሊይ ተጽዕኖዎች ያሳዴራሌ፡፡

በተጨማሪም፣ እኛ ኢትዮጵያውያን በአንዴ የጋራ የኢኮኖሚ አውዴ (common economic space) ውስጥ ሆነን የነፍስ ወከፍና የወሌ ዯህንነታችንን ሇማሻሻሌ እንጣጣራሇን የሚሌ ግምት አሇኝ፡፡ አሁን በስራ ሊይ ካሇው፣ የኢትዮጵያ ህገ መንግስት መግቢያ /1987፣6/ የምቀነጭባቸው የሚከተለት ዏረፍተ ነገሮችም የዚህን ጉዲይ አስፈሊጊነት ያረጋግጣለ፤ ‹እኛ የኢትዮጵያ ብሄሮች፣ ብሄረሰቦች፣ ህዝቦች፣... ጥቅማችንን፣ መብታችንና ነፃነታችንን በጋራ እና

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 3 Ethiopian Economic Association

በተዯጋጋፊነት ሇማሳዯግ አንዴ የኢኮኖሚ ማኀበረሰብ የመገንባቱን አስፈሊጊነት በማመን... ይህ ሕገመንግስት... ማሰሪያ እንዱሆነን... አጽዴቀነዋሌ፡፡›

ከፍ ብዬ የጠቀስኩዋቸው ነጥቦች የሚከተለት ዋና ዋና አንዴምታዎች ይኖሩዋቸዋሌ ብዬ እገምታሇሁ፤ ሀ) በአንዴ ወይም በላሊ መሌኩ፣

ሁለም ኢትዮጵያውያን ከኢትዮጵያ ሰሊምና ብሌጽግና ተጠቃሚ ይሆናለ፤

ሇ) በአንዴ ወይም በላሊ መሌኩ፣ ሇእነዚህ ግቦች መገኘት ሁለም ኢትዮጵያውያን አስተዋጽኦ ያዯርጋለ፤ የማዴረግ ግዳታም አሇባቸው፡፡ በላሊ አባባሌ፣ ሰሊምንና ብሌጽግናን የማስፈን ኃሊፊነት ሇአንዴ ወይም ሇላሊ የተመረጠ ቡዴን የተሰጠ መብት፣ ወይም በአንዴ ቡዴን ሊይ የተጣሇ ግዳታ አይዯሇም፤ ስሇዚህም፣

ሏ) ኢትዮጵያውያን ሁለ የዘመናችንና የመጭው ጊዜ የአገራችንን የኑሮ ዯህንነት አስተማማኝ የማዴረግ ሌዩ ሌዩ ኃሊፊነቶች አለብን፡፡

በመጨረሻም፣ ጠንካራና ውጤታማ የገበያ ኢኮኖሚ ስርዓት መገንባት የኢትዮጵያውያን የጋራ ርዕይ ነው የሚሌ እምነት አሇኝ ፡፡ ይህንንም ስሌ አብዛኞቹ ኢትዮጵያዊያን ትንሹም ትሌቁም የኢኮኖሚ እንቅስቃሴያቸው ከአንዴ ማዕከሊዊ ስሌጣን በሚሰጥ አመራር እንዱተዲዯር አይፈሌጉም ማሇቴ ነው፡፡

ኢኮኖሚያዊ አስተዲዯር፤ ጽንሰ ሃሳባዊ ማዕቀፍ (Economic governance - a conceptual

framework)

በዛሬ ንግግሬ ኢኮኖሚያዊ አስተዲዯር ስሌ የፖሉሲ ቀረጻ ሂዯት፣ በዚህም ሂዯት ውስጥ ተቀርጸው የሚወጡ ፖሉሲዎች፣ እንዱሁም የፖሉሲ አፈጻጸም ስርዓቶች ማሇቴ ይሆናሌ፡፡ ኢኮኖሚያዊ አስተዲዯር አንዴ ኢኮኖሚ የሚሰራባቸውን ተቋማዊና ህጋዊ ሁኔታዎች (environment) የሚያካትት እሳቤ ነው፡፡ በመሆኑም የአንዴ አገር ኢኮኖሚያዊ አስተዲዯር፣ የማክሮ—ኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲዎችን (macroeconomic policies)፣ የመንግሥት ፋይናንስ ፖሉሲዎች (fiscal policies )፣ መንግስታዊ የኢኮኖሚ ዴርጅቶችን፣ የቁጥጥር ፖሉሲዎችንና (regulatory policies)) የፍትህ አካሊትን፣ የንግዴ ህጎችንና የህግ ተቋማትን በሙለ ያካትታሌ፡፡ ስሇዚህ በዛሬው ንግግሬ ውስጥ የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲ አቀራረጽና አተገባበር የሚሇውን ሀረግ የኢኮኖሚያዊ አስተዲዯርን ጽንሰ ሀሳብ ይተካሌኝ ዘንዴ ሌገሇገሌበት እወዲሇሁ፡፡ የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲ ሶስት ዋና ዋና ክፍልች አለት፡፡ እነዚህም፣ የኢኮኖሚ ግቦች፣ የኢኮኖሚ መሳሪያዎችና የኢኮኖሚ ሞዳልች ናቸው፡፡ ፖሉሲ አውጭዎችና መንግስታት ስሇኢኮኖሚ ግቦችና መሳሪያዎች ዘወትር በግሌጽ ሲናገሩና ሲያብራሩ፣ ሶስተኛውን ግን ብዙ ጊዜ ሸፋፍነው ያሌፉታሌ፤ ወይም ስሙንም ሳያነሱ ይቀራለ፡፡ የኢኮኖሚ ግቦች፡— የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲ በማውጣትና ፖሉሲውን በመተግበር ሉዯረስባቸው የታቀደ ዓሊማዎችና ታሊሚ ውጤቶች

ናቸው፡፡ ኢትዮጵያን በመሳሰለ ዴሃ አገሮች ጥቅሌ የኢኮኖሚ ግቦች ሁሇት መሰረታዊ ሰፊ አሊማዎችን ይይዛለ፡፡ እነዚህም1፣ 1. የማክሮ ኢኮኖሚ መረጋጋት

(macroeconomic stability)፣ ይህ ዓሊማ በኢኮኖሚ ሚዛን በተሇይም፣ የገንዘብ ክፍያ ሚዛን (the balance of payments)፣ በመንግስት በጀት በቁጠባና በኢንቨስትመንት ሚዛን (the saving-investment balance) ሊይ ያተኩራሌ፡፡ ሇማክሮ ኢኮኖሚ መረጋጋት ወሳኝ ሚና ከሚጫወቱ ጉዲዮች ዋና ዋናዎቹ፣ የመንግስት የበጀት ጉዴሇት፣ የገንዘብ አቅርቦት፣ የጥቅሌ ፍሊጎት ክፍልች (components of aggregate demand)፣ የብዴር መጠን (volume of credit)፣ የወሇዴ ምጣኔ፣ ምንዲዎችና ትርፎች (wages and profits)፣ የሸቀጥ ዋጋ፣ እና yW+/

ምንዛሬ ምጣኔ ዋጋ ናቸው፡፡ 2. እዴገትና ሌማት (growth and

development)፤ በአንዴ አገር ሌማት ሂዯት ባህርያት ሊይ ወሳኝ ሚና በሚጫወቱ ጉዲዮች ሊይ ያተኩራለ፡፡ የሌማት ሂዯትን ባህርያት የሚወስኑት ቁሌፍ ጉዲዮች የምርት መዋቅርና እዴገት፣ የዜጎች የስራ እዴሌና ኢንቨስትመንት ሲሆኑ በስራቸውም፣ የካፒታሌ ክምችት፣ ከገጠር ወዯ ከተማ ፍሌሰት (rural-urban migration)፣ የሠራተኛው ሕዝብ ቁጥር እዴገት፣ የምርታማነት መሻሻሌ፣ የንግዴ መዋቅር (trade structure)፣ የኢንቨስትመንት

1 Dervis, Kemal, Jaime de Melo, and

Sherman Robinson (1982). General

Equilibrium Models for Development Policy,

The World Bank, Washington D.C.

Economic Focus

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Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 4 Ethiopian Economic Association

ምዯባ (allocation of investment) እና የፍሊጎት መዋቅር (demand structure) የመሳሰለ ሁኔታዎችን ያካትታለ2፡፡

ከፍ ብዬ ያመሇከትኳቸውን ሁሇት ጥቅሌ ግቦች በቁርጥ የሚሇይ ዴንበር ከሌል መሇያየት ብዙ ጊዜ አስቸጋሪ ነው፡፡ በመጀመሪያ መረጋጋትና እዴገት/ ሌማት የተሳሰሩና ናቸው፤ ሇኢኮኖሚ እዴገት/ ሌማት መረጋጋት ወሳኝ ጉዲይ መሆኑ በሁሇቱ መካከሌ ሊሇው ዝምዴና መንስኤ ነው፡፡ ሁሇተኛ፣ አንዲንዴ የፖሉሲ መሳሪያዎች በሁሇቱም (በመረጋጋትና በእዴገት/በሌማት) ሊይ የሚያነጣጥሩና አወንታዊ ወይም አለታዊ ተጽዕኖዎች የሚያስከትለ ናቸው፡፡

የፖሉሲ መሳሪያዎች (Instruments)፡— የፖሉሲ ግቦችን ወይም ታሊሚ ውጤቶችን ሇማስገኘት በስራ ሊይ የሚውለ ዘዳዎች ናቸው፡፡ የአንዴ መንግስት ዝርዝር የፖሉሲ መሳሪያዎች በከፊሌ በራሱ በመንግስት ተቋማዊ ዴርጅቶቹ ሊይ ይመሰረታለ፡፡ በነጻ ገበያ ኢኮኖሚ የፖሉሲ መሳሪያዎች፣ የፋይናንስ አስተዲዯር ፖሉሲዎችን (የታክስ ዓይነቶችንና ዯረጃዎችን፣ የመንግስትን ወጭ መጠንና ስብጥር)፣ የስርዓተ-ገንዘብ (monetary) ፖሉሲን (የገንዘብ አቅርቦትን፣ የመጠባበቂያ ተቀማጭ ግዳታዎች (reserve requirements)፣ የወሇዴ መጠን ዴንጋጌን)፣ የውጭ ምንዛሬ ተመን ፖሉሲን፣ የኢኮኖሚ¸ ዘርፍ ፖሉሲን፣ እና ህጎችንና ዴንጋጌዎችን ያካትታለ፡፡

2 Dervis, Kemal, Jaime de Melo, and

Sherman Robinson (1982). General

Equilibrium Models for Development Policy,

The World Bank, Washington D.C

የኢኮኖሚ ሞዳልች (Economic Models)፡— የኢኮኖሚ ሞዳሌ፤ ኢኮኖሚው እንዳት እንዯሚንቀሳቀስ አወቃቀሩን፣ እንቅፋቶቹንና እዴልቹን ጨምሮ)፣ የፖሉሲ መሳሪያዎች ከፖሉሲ ግቦች/ታሊሚዎች ጋር እንዳት እንዯሚተሳሰሩና እነዚህን ስሇመሳሰለ ጉዲዮች ፖሉሲ አውጭዎችና አማካሪዎቻቸው ያሊቸውን አተያይ የሚጠቀሌሌ እሳቤ ነው፡፡ ይህ አተያይ፣ መነሻና መሰረት ያዯረጋቸውን የኢኮኖሚ ትውሮች (economic theorizing) እና ተግባራዊ ሌምዴ (empirical evidences) ጨምሮ በዝርዝር ሉሰፍር ይችሊሌ፡፡ ያሇበሇዚያም በግሌፅና በዝርዝር ሳይነገር በውስጠ ታዋቂነት ሉያዝ ወይም ያሇበቂ ትወራዊና ግብራዊ ይዘት እንዯነገሩ ተውተፍትፎ ሲገሇጽ ይችሊሌ፡፡ መንግስታት እጅግ በርካታ አይነት የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲዎችን ሉነዴፉ ይችሊለ፡፡ የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲ በአንዴ በኩሌ፣ መንግስት የተቀናጁ የኢኮኖሚ ግቦቹን ሇመምታት፣ በተሇይ የማክሮ—ኢኮኖሚያዊ መረጋጋትትን ሇማስፈንና የኢኮኖሚ እዴገትንና ሌማትን ሇማፋጠን ያስችሇኛሌ ብል የመረጣቸውን ቁሌፍ ስሌቶች ያመሇክታሌ፡፡ በላሊ በኩሌ ዯግሞ፣ የአንዴ አገር የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲ የተመረጠባቸው መንገድችና ሂዯቶች፣ የአንዴን አገር የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ስርዓት፣ ወይም የአንዴ አገር ኢኮኖሚ የሚሰራባቸውን ተቋማዊ ሁኔታዎች ባህርያትን ያንጸባርቃሌ፡፡ ስሇዚህም፣ የመንግስት ፖሉሲዎች የአንዴ አገር ኢኮኖሚያዊ አሰራርና እዴገታዊ ሇውጥ (evolution) ውስጥ ወሳኝ ሚናዎች የሚጫዎቱ የኢኮኖሚው መሰረታዊ ክፍልች ናቸው3፡፡

3 For a recent exploration of the impact of

policies and, more broadly, governance see

Ndulu and O‘Connell (1999), Collier and

የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲዎች የመጨረሻ ግብ የዜጎችን ኑሮና ዯህንነት (well-being) ማሻሻል መሆን አሇበት፡፡ ይህንን ማሻሻል ሇማምጣት ፖሉሲዎች በኢኮኖሚው ውስጥ ተዋናይ የሆኑት ክፍሎች (ግሇሰቦች፣ ቤተሰቦችና የኢኮኖሚ ድርጅቶች) የሚወስዷቸውን ውሳኔዎችና ምርጫዎች ተስማሚና ተገቢ በሆነ መንገድ ያስተካክለ ዘንድ በቀጥታም ይሆን በተዘዋዋሪ ማግባባት መቻል አሇባቸው፡፡ የእነዚህ ተዋንያን ምርጫ፣ ስሇዚህም የመንግሥት ፖሉሲዎች ውጤታማነት የሚወሰነው በግልጽ በሚታዩት የፖሉሲዎቹ ባህርያት ብቻ ሳይሆን፣ ስሇፖሉሲዎች የኢኮኖሚው ተዋናዮች በሚኖራቸው

ግንዛቤም (perception) ጭምር ነው፡፡ በአጭሩ ጥሩ የመንግሥት ፖሉሲዎች የአንድን አገር የኢኮኖሚ እንቅስቃሴ በማሳዯግ የዜጎችን የኑሮ ዯህንነት ያሻሽሊለ፡፡

ፖሉሲዎች የሚያስገኙት ፋይዳ የሚሇካው የፖሉሲዎች ጥራት ማረጋገጫ በሆኑት ትክክሇኛነት (correctness)፣ ተአማኒነትና (credibility) ውጤታማነት (effectiveness) ነው4፡፡

ፖሉሲዎች ትክክሇኛ (correct) ሉሆኑ ይገባሌ፤ ፖሉሲዎች ትክክሇኛ የሚባለት፣ ተቀባይ ካሊቸው የሕብረተሰብ ፍሊጎቶች (the ‘accepted’ needs of the society and its economy) ጋር የተጣጣሙ

Gunning (1999), and Kaufmann, Kraay, and

Ziodo-Lobat (1999, 2002). The first two

specifically analyse Africa.

4 On correctness see Stiglitz (1996), Tanzi

(2000), and World Bank (1997). On

credibility see, for instance, Brunetti,

Kisunko, and Weder (1998)

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ተገቢውን የመንግሥት ኢኮኖሚያዊ ሚና ያገናዘቡና የመንግስትና አቅም ጨምር በኢኮኖሚው አቅም ተግባራዊ ሉሆኑ የሚችለ ሲሆኑ ነው፡፡ ፖሉሲዎች ተአማኒ (credible) ሉሆኑ ይገባሌ፤ ፖሉሲዎች ተአማኒ የሚባለት ምክንያታዊና የሚዘሌቁበት አቅጣጫ የሚገመት እና እርስ በእርስ የተቀናጁና የተጣጣሙ (reasonably predictable) ፖሉሲዎች ውጤታማ (effective) ሉሆኑ ይገባሌ፤ ፖሉሲዎች ውጤታማ የሚባለት አመራረጣቸውና አተገባበራቸው ቀሌጣፋ (efficient) እና በበቂ ግሌጽነትና ተጠያቂነት ሊይ የተመሠረተ ሲሆን

እነዚህ ሶስት የፖሉሲ እርምጃ (policy interventions) ገጽታዎች አንዲቸው ከላሊቸው ጋር የማይፋቱ የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲ ጥራት ጥምር አመሌካቾች (joint indicators of the quality of economic policy) ናቸው፡፡ ከእነዚህ ባህርያት አንዲንድቹን ከፍ ብል ከተገሇጹት ላልች የፖሉሲ አሊባውያን (policy elements) ጋር በማቀናጀት፣ የኢትዮጵያን የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ገጽታዎች ሇማብራራት እገሇገሌባቸዋሇሁ፡፡

ኢኮኖሚያዊ አስተዲዯር በኢትዮጵያ

በዘመናዊትዋ ኢትዮጵያ ታሪክ ሇመጀመሪያ ጊዜ በወጉ የተነዯፈ ብሄራዊ የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲ በንጉሰ ነገስቱ ዘመን የወጣውና ከ1957-19615 የቆየው አንዯኛው የአምስት ዓመት የሌማት ዕቅዴ (The First Five-Year Development

5 All years are in Gregorian Calendar.

Plan) ነው6፡፡ ከእዚህ እቅዴ በኋሊም ሁሇተኛው (1963-1967) እና ሶስተኛው(1968-1973) የአምስት ዓመት የሌማት እቅድች ወጥተዋሌ፡፡ ሶስተኛውን የአምስት ዓመት የሌማት እቅዴ መሰረት በማዴረግ በንጉሰ ነገስቱ ዘመን የወጡት የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲዎች ባህርያት ሇማመሊከት እሞክራሇሁ፡፡ ሶስተኛው የአምስት ዓመት የሌማት ዕቅዴ በዘመኑ ከተነዯፉት ዕቅድች ሁለ ይበሌጥ የዲበረና ዘመናዊ የፖሉሲ ሰነዴ ነበር ማሇት ይቻሊሌ፡፡ በእኔ እምነት፣ ይህ ፖሉሲ በተጠየቁ (its logic)፣ በጥሌቀት (depth) እና በሽፋን (coverage) ረገዴ ከእርሱ በሁዋሊ ባለት ዘመናት ከተዘጋጁት ዕቅድችና ስትራቴጅዎች የማይተናነስ ነው7፡፡ የዚህን ዕቅዴ ሰነዴ በማነብበት ወቅት በጣም የተገረምኩበት ጉዲይ ቢኖር፣ እጅግ ብዙዎቹ ትንታኔዎች ባሇንበት ዘመንም ተቀባይነት ያሊቸውና ሉያገሇግለ የሚችለ መሆናቸው ነው፡፡ ተንታኞቹ የተከተለት የምርመራ ስሌትና ትንታኔያቸውን ያቀረቡበት ቋንቋ በቅርብ ዘመን ከወጡት ሰነድች ጋር በጣም ተመሳሳይ በመሆኑ፣ ይህ ሰነዴ ከ35 ዓመታት በፊት የተዘጋጀ መሆኑን እስከመርሳት ዯርሼ ነበር፡፡ ላሊ ላሊው ነገር ይቅርና ይህ ሰነዴ ከተዘጋጀበት ዘመን ወዱህ ባለት ዓመታት የኢኮኖሚያችን እርምጃ ምን ያህሌ ቀሰስተኛ እንዯሆነ ሇማየት የምትሹ አዴማጮቼ፣ ይህንን ሰነዴ ትመሇከቱት ዘንዴ ሊሳስባችሁ እወዲሇሁ፡፡

6 See Asfaw (1992) and Molla (1992). 7 Imperial Ethiopian Government (1968).

Third Five Year Development Plan, Addis

Ababa, Ethiopia.

ግቦች/ዓሊማዎች፤ ሶስተኛው የአምስት ዓመት የሌማት እቅዴ ግቦቹ አዴርጎ የነቀሳቸው ዓሊማዎች የሚከተለት ነበሩ፤ 1. የነፍስ ወከፍ ገቢን በዓመት 3

በመቶ ማሳዯግ፤ 2. በሁለም ጎን የተቀናጀ

ማበረታቻና ዴጋፍ በማዴረግ የብሄራዊው ኢኮኖሚ መዯሊዴሌ (mainstay) እና የአብዛኛው ኢትዮጵያዊ ኑሮ መሰረት የሆነውን ግብርናን ማሻሻሌ፤

3. ኢኮኖሚያዊና ማህበራዊ ሌማትን ከከተማ ማዕከሊት የበርካታው የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ መኖሪያና የአገሪቱ የተፈጥሮ ሃብት መገኛ ወዯሆነው ገጠር ማስፋፋት፡፡

ሰነደ እነዚህን ዋና ዋና ጥቅሌ ግቦች ወዯ ዝርዝር አሊማዎች በመሸንሸን፣ በሌዩ ሌዩ ዘርፎች የሚጠበቁ ዝርዝር ክንዋኔዎችንና ታሳቢ ውጤቶችን አመሊክቷሌ፡፡ መሳሪያዎች፤ ሶስተኛው የአምስት ዓመት የሌማት ዕቅዴ ከፍ ብል የተመሇከቱትን ግቦች እውን ሇማዴረግ የሚያስችለ በርካታ ሌዩ ሌዩ የፖሉሲ ማስፈጸሚያ ስሌቶች/ መሳሪያዎችን የነዯፈ ሲሆን ከእነዚህ መካከሌ ከሌዩ ሌዩ ዘርፎች በተመረጡ የተወሰኑ ፕሮጀክቶች ሊይ የሚዯረግ አማሊይ የኢንቨስትመንት እቅዴ (impressive investment plan) አንደ ነው፡፡ የኢንቨስትመንት እቅደን በስራ ሊይ ሇማዋሌ ከሚያሰፈሌገው ገንዘብ ግማሽ ያህለ በግለ ዘርፍ ይሸፈናሌ ተብል ይጠበቅ ነበር፡፡ ሶስተኛው የአምስት ዓመት የሌማት ዕቅዴ፣ የግለን ዘርፍ ኢንቨስትመንት ሇማበረታታት ያስችሊለ ተብሇው የሚገመቱ የፖሉሲ እርምጃዎችና መሳሪያዎች

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x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 6 Ethiopian Economic Association

በተግባር ሊይ እንዱውለ አሳስቧሌ፡፡ ሰነደ ነቅሶ ካወጣቸው የፖሉሲ መሳሪያዎች መካከሌ፣ ዝርዝር ይዘቱ ወዯፊት በኢንቨስትመንት ህግ የሚዯነገግ፣ በዘመኑ የንግዴና ኢንደስትሪ ሚኒስቴር በመባሌ ይታወቅ በነበረው ሚኒስቴር ስር በሚዯራጅ የኢንቨስትመንት ኮሚቴና የኢንቨስትመንት ማበረታቻ ቢሮ የሚተዲዯሩ የፋይናንስ ማበረታቻ እርምጃዎች (ከታክስ ነጻ ማዴረግን የመሳሰለ) አስፈሊጊነት አንደ ነው፡፡ የመንግስትን ኢንቨስትመንት በተመሇከተም ሰነደ ሇዓመታዊ የመንግስት በጀት አዘገጃጀት መሰረት የሚሆኑ ዓመታዊ ዕቅድችን ነዴፎአሌ፡፡ ኢኮኖሚያዊ ሞዳልች፤ ሶስተኛው የአምስት ዓመት ዕቅዴ የተከተሊቸው የኢኮኖሚ ሞዳልች በሚከተለት ሶስት አበይት መርሆች ሉገሇጹ ይችሊለ:: እነርሱም፤

1. የኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚ የቆመበት መሰረት የግብርና ኢኮኖሚ እስከሆነ ዴረስ የግብርና ሌማት ቅዴሚያ ሉሰጠው ይገባሌ (በነገራችን ሊይ የፖሉሲው አርቃቂዎች ይህን እምነታቸውን ሇማስረገጥ የሚያቀርቧቸው አሃዛዊ ግምቶች (figures cited) ከሞሊ ጎዯሌ በአሁኑ ዘመን ከሚሰጡ አሃዛዊ ግምቶች ጋር ተመሳሳይ ናቸው)፤

2. የኢንደስትሪ ሌማት እጅግ አስፈሊጊ ነው፡፡ ኤክስፖርትን ማስፋፋት አስፈሊጊ ቢሆንም፤ በኢንደስትሪ ሇመሌማት ከውጭ የሚገቡ ሸቀጦችን በአገር ምርት መተካት (Import substitution) የተሻሇው ተመራጭ ስትራቴጅ ነው ፡፡

3. የትምህርት መስፋፋትና የዜጎች በሌዩ ሌዩ ክሂልች መሰሌጠን (በዘመናችን ቋንቋ ሰብአዊ ካፒታሌን (human capital) ማሳዯግ ሇአገሪቱ ሌማት እጅግ ወሳኝ ነው፤

የሚለት ናቸው፡፡

እነዚህ መርሆዎችና እምነቶች ዕቅደ በተነዯፈበት ዘመን የነበረውን የኢኮኖሚክስ አስተሳሰብ በጥቅለ የሚያንጸባርቁ ነበሩ፡፡

ፖሉሲውን ያረቀቁት የዘመኑ ሰዎች ሇፖሉሲያቸው ‹ትክክሇኛነት›፣ ‹ተአማኒነት› እና ‹ውጤታማነት› የሰጡት ትኩረት ሳይነሳ መታሇፍ የላሇበት ጉዲይ ነው፡፡ ፖሉሲውን የቀረጹት ባሇሙያዎች፡—

1. የፖሉሲ አቀራረጹ ተግባር የአገሪቱን ኢኮኖሚ በጥሌቀት/ጠንቅቆ ከማወቅ መመንጨት እንዲሇበት ተረዴተው ነበር፡፡ ጥራት ያሇው ስታትስቲክስን አስፈሊጊነት ከማጤናቸውም በሊይ፣ የተገሇገለበት መረጃ ችግሮች እንዲለበትና ሇወዯፊቱ ማዕከሊዊ ስታትስቲክስ ቢሮን ማጠናከር እንዯሚያስፈሌግም በግሌጽ ተገንዝበው ነበር፡፡

2. ዕቅደን ሇማሳካት የሚያስፈሌጉትን ተቋማዊ መሠረቶችን በአጽንኦት በመግሇጽ፣ በመንግስት ሌዩ ሌዩ መስሪያቤቶች መካከሌ ቅንጅት ሇመፍጠር የሚያስችለትን ጨምሮ የተሇያዩ ተጓዲኝ የማሻሻያ ሂዯቶች አመሊክተዋሌ፡፡

3. የሌማት ዕቅደ ይሳካ ዘንዴ፣ ህዝቡ በወጉ ሉያውቀውና ሉረዲው፣ እንዱሁም ሉቀበሇውና ዴጋፍ ሉሰጠው እንዯሚገባ ተገንዝበዋሌ፡፡ ይህንንም ከዕቅደ ሰነዴ መቅዴም/መግቢያ

የምጠቅሳቸው የሚከተለት ዏረፍተ ነገሮችን ያሳያለ፤

ውጤት ሇማስገኘት ዕቅደ የመሊውን ህዝቡ ዴጋፍ ሉያገኝ ይገባሌ፡፡ ይህን ዴጋፍ ሇማግኘት ቅዴመ ሁኔታ ህዝቡ ስሇዕቅደ ምንነት፣ ስሇዓሊማዎቹ፣ ስሇፖሉሲዎቹ፣ ከሁለም ይሌቅ ዯግሞ ዕቅደ በዕሇት ከዕሇት ኑሮው የሚኖረውን ፋይዲ/ ጠቀሜታ የሚኖረው ግንዛቤ ነው፡፡ የዚህ አይነቱ ግንዛቤ ሉኖር የሚችሇው ዯግሞ፣ ሰነደ ብዙሀኑ ህዝብ ሉረዲው በሚችሌ መሌክ ተዘጋጅቶ በንጉሰ ነገስቱ ግዛት ሲሰራጭ ነው፡፡

4. ዕቅደን የነዯፉት ባሇሙያዎች

በተጨማሪ፣ የሃብት ምንጮችን በተቀሊጠፈ ሁኔታ የመጠቀምን አስፈሊጊነትም አበክረው ገሌጸዋሌ፡፡

ሶስተኛው የአምስት ዓመት የሌማት እቅዴ እነዚህ ሁለ ጥንካሬዎች ቢኖሩትም ውጤታማ እንዲሌነበረ ብዙ ባሇሙያዎች ይናገራለ፡፡ ሇፖሉሲው ውዴቀት አስተዋጽኦ ያዯረጉ በርካታ አገራዊና አሇማቀፋዊ ምክንያቶች እንዲለ ቢታወቅም፣ ፖሉሲው ከራሱ የመነጩ ቴክኒካዊ ዴክመቶችም ነበሩበት፡፡ እነዚህ ችግሮች ዋና ዋና የሚባለትን ሁሇቱን ሇአብነት ያክሌ ማመሌከት ተገቢ ይመስሇኛሌ፡፡

1. ዕቅደ በኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚ ሌዩ

ሌዩ ዘርፎች መካከሌ ስሊለ ውስጣዊ ትስስሮች (inter-linkages) እና ከእነዚህ

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 7 Ethiopian Economic Association

ትስስሮች ጋር ስሇተቆራኙ እንቅፋቶች (constraints) በቲዎሪና በተግባራዊ ሌምዴ ትንታኔ የተገኘ እውቀትን መሰረት አሊዯረገም፤

2. ዕቅደ የተመሰረተበት ሀብተ-መረጃ (database) ዯካማ ነበር፡፡ ተግባራዊ ሌምድች ትንታኔ (empirical analysis) በገሊጭ አሀዞች (descriptive statistics) ሊይ ብቻ መወሰኑ የሀብተ-መረጃ ዯካማነትን ያመሊክታሌ፡፡

ከእነዚህ በተጨማሪም፣ የፖሇቲካ ስርዓት ሇውጥን አስፈሊጊነት አሇመገንዘብና ሇመሬት ስርዓት ሇውጥ በቂ ትኩረት አሇመሰጠት ሇሌማት ዕቅደ ውዴቀት ላልች መሰረታዊ ምክንያቶች ናቸው፡፡ ይህ ዕቅዴ እምብዛም የተጠያቂነትና የግሌጽነት ባህርይ ያሌነበረው ፈሊጭ ቆራጭ ንጉሳዊ አገዛዝ የእጅ ስራ በመሆኑ እነዚህን መሰረታዊ ሇውጦች አሇማካተቱ ብዙም አስገራሚ ሊይሆን ይችሊሌ፡፡ በእርግጥም፣ ሇፖሇቲካ ስርዓትና ሇመሬት ይዞታ ስርዓት ሇውጥ የተዯረጉ ትግልች የኋሊ ኋሊ ሇአገዛዝ ስርዓቱ መወገዴ መሰረታዊ ምክንያቶች ሆነዋሌ፡፡ የአጼው ስርዓት ሲወገዴ የኢትዮጵያን ፖሇቲካዊና ኢኮኖሚያዊ አስተዲዯር ጠቅሌል የተቆጣጠረው ወታዯራዊው ዯርግ ነበር፡፡ የዯርግ አገዛዝ መገሇጫ አበይት ባህርያት ጭካኔ የተሞሊበት ፖሇቲካዊ አፈና እና የተማከሇ የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ቁጥጥር ነበሩ፡፡ ይህ አገዛዝ በሀገሪቱ ከነበሩ የማምረቻ ተቋማት አብዛኞቹን፣ የፋይናንስ ተቋማትንና ታሊሊቅ ዘመናዊ እርሻዎችን በሙለ፣ ከመኖሪያ ቤቶችና ህንጻዎች ብዙዎቹን፣ እንዱሁም መሬትን ሙለ በሙለ በመንግስት ይዞታ

ስር አዴርጓሌ፡፡ አገዛዙ በመጀመሪያ ‹‹ብሄራዊ አብዮታዊ የምርት ዘመቻ›› (1978-1984)፣ በኋሊም በ ‹‹አስር አመት ጠቋሚ ዕቅዴ›› (ከ1984 ወዱህ) የተባለ የኢኮኖሚ ሌማት መርሃ ግብሮችን ነዴፎ ነበር፡፡ በዚህ አገዛዝ ዘመን ስሇ ነበረው የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር አይነት አንዲንዴ ሀሳቦችን ሇመሰንዘር ያመቸኝ ዘንዴ የአስር አመት ጠቋሚ ዕቅዴን እመሇክታሇሁ8፡፡ ግቦች/ዓሊማዎች፤ የዯርግ አገዛዝ የኢኮኖሚ ሌማት ፖሉሲ የሩቅ ግብና ህሌም የሶሻሉስት ኢኮኖሚን መገንባት ነበር፡፡ የአስሩ አመት መሪ ዕቅዴ በዚህ ሩቅና ሰፊ ግብ የሚታቀፉ አያላ ዝርዝር የቅርብ ጊዜ ዓሊማዎችንና ታሊሚ ውጤቶችን አካቷሌ፡፡ ከእነዚህ ውስጥ አንዲንድቹ፡— 1. 3.5 በመቶ አማካይ ዓመታዊ

የነፍስ ወከፍ ገቢ እዴገት ማስገኘት፤ በተጓዲኝም በግብርና፡- የ4.3 በመቶ፣ በኢንደስትሪ፡- የ10.8 በመቶ፣ እንዱሁም በአገሌግልት ዘርፍ፡- የ6.9 በመቶ አማካይ የእዴገት ምጣኔ ማምጣት፤

2. የምግብ ዋስትናን ሇማረጋገጥና የግብርና ምርታማነትን ማሳዯግ፤ የህብረት ሥራን (co-operativisation) እና የመስኖ እርሻን ማስፋፋት፤

3. በተሇይ ወዯ አገር የሚገቡ ምርቶችን በሀገር ውስጥ ምርቶች በመተካት፣ ከጠቅሊሊ ብሄራዊ ምርት የኢንደስትሪውን ዴርሻ ወዯ 1/4 ኛ ማሳዯግ፤ የሚለት ናቸው፡፡

8 Provisional Military Government of

Socialist Ethiopia (1984). Ten-Year

Perspective Plan, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

መሳሪያዎች፤ የዯርግ አገዛዝ የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲው ዋነኛ ማስፈጸሚያ መሳሪያ አዴርጎ የመረጠው ማዕከሊዊ እቅዴን ነበር፡፡ በሃገሪቱ አብዛኛውን ዘመናዊውን የኢኮኖሚ ዘርፍ የሚወክለት ወዯ መንግስት ይዞታነት የተዛወሩ ኢንተርፕራይዞች ሇዚሁ ተግባር በተቋቋሙ የማዕከሊዊ መንግስት ሚኒስቴር መስሪያ ቤቶችና ኤጀንሲዎች ይተዲዯሩ ነበር፡፡ የግለን ዘርፍ እንቅስቃሴ ሇማዲከም ሲሌ ዘመናዊ ኢንተርፕራይዞችን ከመውረስ በተጨማሪ በላልቹም የኢኮኖሚ እንቅስቃሴዎች ሊይ አገዛዙ ጥብቅ የቁጥጥር ስርዓት ዘርግቶ ነበር፡፡ ከነዚህ የቁጥጥር ስሌቶች አንዲንድቹ፤

የሰዎች እንቅስቃሴንና የሸቀጥ

ዝውውርን/ የሚገታ የይሇፍ ፈቃዴ ግዳታና በዋና ዋና መተሊሇፊያ መንገድችና በሮች ሊይ የተቋቋሙ አያላ የቁጥጥር ኬሊዎች፤

ከሌካይ የታሪፍ ምጣኔዎች (prohibitive tariff rates)፣ ሰፊ የኮታ ጥልሽ (extensive

quota restrictions)፣ ረጃጅምና የተወሳሰቡ የንግዴና የስራ ፈቃዴ አሰጣጥ ዯንቦች፤

በእርሻው ዘርፍ የጉሌበት ቅጥርና ሽያጭን ሙለ በሙለ ማገዴ፤

አራሽ ቤተሰቦች ከገበያ በታች በሆነና በተቆረጠ ዋጋ የግብርና ምርቶችን ሇመንግስት እንዱያሰረክቡ የሚያስገዴዴ ቋሚ የሰብሌ አቅርቦት ኮታ፤ እና

የፋብሪካ ምርቶችና ሸቀጦች የራሽን እዯሊ፤ ናቸው፡፡

እነዚህና ላልቹ የዯርግ የቁጥጥር ስርዓቶች የዜጎችን ሰብአዊ መብቶች በእጅጉ ከመገዯባቸውና ከህጋዊ

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 8 Ethiopian Economic Association

የኢኮኖሚ እንቅስቃሴዎች የሚገኙ ጥቅሞችንና ገቢዎችን ከማፈናቸውም በሊይ፣ ተገቢነት ሇላሊቸው ከፍተኛ አስተዲዯራዊ ወጭዎች፣ ሇሙስና በእጅጉ መስፋፋትና ሇህገወጥ የሸቀጦች ስርገትም (smuggling) መንስዔ ሆነዋሌ፡፡ የእዲው ተሸካሚ የሆነው ህብረተሰባችንም ሇቀሰስተኛ እዴገትና፣ እየከፋ ሇሚሄዴ ዴህነት ተዲርጓሌ፡፡ የኢኮኖሚ ሞዳልች፤ የአስሩ ዓመት መሪ እቅዴ የተከተሇው የኢኮኖሚ ሞዳሌ የዘመኑ አገዛዝ በሚከተሇው ሶሻሉስታዊ አመሇካከት የተቃኘና አመሇካከቱ የሚያቀነቅነውን የተማከሇ የውሳኔ አሰጣጥንና የሀብት ምንጭ ቁጥጥር (resource control) የሚያንጸባርቅ ነበር፡፡ የግለን ዘርፍና የግሌ ሀብት እንዯ ብዝበዛ መሣሪያ ተቆጥረው መዴከም እንዲሇባቸው ይታመን ነበር፡፡ ከእነዚህ መሰረታዊ ባህርያቱ በስተቀር፣ የአስሩ ዓመት መሪ እቅዴ የተመሰረተባቸው ግምቶችና እምነቶች በንጉሱ ዘመን ከነበረው ከሶስተኛው የአምስት ዓመት የኢኮኖሚ ሌማት እቅዴ ጋር በእጅጉ ተመሳሳይ ናቸው፡፡ ከእነዚህ አመሇካከቶችና እምነቶች መካከሌም፡-

1. ሇብሄራዊ ምርትና የስራ ኃይሌ

ስምሪት ከፍተኛ ዴርሻ የሚያበረክተው የግብርናው ዘርፍ ቅዴሚያ ሉሰጠው ይገባሌ፤

2. የኢንደስትሪ እዴገት ሇሀገር ሌማት ወሳኝ በመሆኑ፣ በተሇይ ከውጭ የሚገቡ ምርቶችን በአገር ውስጥ ምርቶች በመተካት ስሌት መበረታታትና መስፋፋት ይኖርበታሌ፤ የሚለት ይገኙበታሌ፡፡

በአገዛዙ የመጨረሻ ዘመናት የኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚ የነበረበት የዯቀቀ/ የኮሰመነ ይዞታ በራሱ በቂ ምስክር ስሇሚሆን የዯርግን የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ባህርያት ሇመኮነን ብዙ ማስረጃዎችን መዯርዯር አስፈሊጊ አይመስሇኝም፡፡ የዯርግ አገዛዝ ከተከተሇው መጥፎ ሌማዴና መንፈስ አሁንም ገና ሙለ ሇሙለ አሌተሊቀቅንም፡፡ ኢትዮጵያውያን የታሪካችን አንዴ ምዕራፍ ከሆነው ከዚያ ክፉ ዘመን ሌንማራቸው የሚገቡን አያላ ጠቃሚ ሌምድችና ትምህርቶች ይኖራለ፡፡ ከእነዚህ ውስጥ ዛሬ ሇያዝኩት ጭብጥ እጅግ ሁነኛ ናቸው ብዬ የማስባቸው ሁሇቱ፣ ግሇሰቦችን የማበረታታትና

የማትጋት ባህርይ የላሊቸው የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲዎች ዘሊቂነት ያሊቸው የኢኮኖሚ መሻሻልችን ሉያስገኙ እንዯማይችለ፤ እና፣

የተማከሇ ቁጥጥርና ጫና (repression) የማያዛሌቅና ውል አዴሮ መውዯቁ/መወገደ እንዯማይቀር፤

መዘከር እወዲሇሁ፡፡ እነዚህን አይነት ባህርያት ያሎቸው ፖሉሲዎች፣ ማንኛውንም ህብረተሰብና አባሊቶቹን የሚያዲክሙና የሚዯቁሱ መሆናቸውን በእርግጠኝነት መናገር ይቻሊሌ፡፡ በእኛ አገር ሁኔታ ዯግሞ እነዚህን መሰልቹ ፖሉሲዎችና ጨካኝ የፖሇቲካ ጭቆናዎች በአስከፊ የኢኮኖሚ ዴቀትና የእርስ በእርስ ግጭቶች ያዲከሩን አዯገኛ መንገድች ነበሩ፡፡ እነዚህ ፖሉሲዎች በመጨረሻም በ1991 ዓ.ም ሇዯርግ ስርዓት መንኮታኮትና ሇኢትዮጵያ ህዝቦች ዳሞክራሲያዊ ግንባር (ኢህአዳግ) ወዯ ፖሇቲካ ስሌጣን መምጣት ምክንያት ሆነዋሌ፡፡

ከ1992 ወዱህ የኢህአዳግ መንግስት የመዋቅር ማስተካከያ መርሃ ግብር (structural adjustment program) በማውጣት ኢኮኖሚውን በገበያ ስርዓት መሌሶ በመቃኘት ሊይ አተኩሮ ቆይቷሌ፡፡ በዚህም ምክንያት መንግስት በኢኮኖሚው ውስጥ የነበረው ቀጥተኛ ተሳትፎ እየቀነሰ መጥቷሌ፡፡ ከዚህም በተጨማሪ፣ የታሪፍ ተመን ተቀንሷሌ፤ የፈቃዴ አሰጣጥ ዯንቦች ቀሇሌና ፈጣን ብሇዋሌ፤ የውጭ ምንዛሬ ቁጥጥር ሊሌቷሌ፤ የህብረት ሥራ ማህበር አባሌነትና የሰብሌ አቅርቦት ግዳታዎች ተቋርጠዋሌ፤ በላሊ በኩሌ ዯግሞ የግሌ ይዞታ

ማስፋፋት (privatisation) ተጀምሮአሌ፤ የግሌ ባንኮች ህጋዊነት አግኝተዋሌ፤ የወሇዴ ምጣኔ ተመን ቁጥጥር ተነስቷሌ፤ እንዱሁም የባንክ-ሇባንክ የገንዘብ ግብይት ተጀምሯሌ፡፡ ኢህአዳግ በስሌጣን ሊይ ከቆየባቸው የመጀመሪያዎቹ አመታት ውስጥ እነዚህ የማሻሻያ እርምጃዎችና እንዱሁም በነበረው ሰሊምና መሌካም የአየር ሁኔታ በአብዛኞቹ ዓመታት ፈጣን አማካይ እዴገት የነበረው የኢኮኖሚ ማገገም

(economic recovery) ታይቶ ነበር፡፡ በቅርቡ ግን በጦርነት፣ በዴርቅና በአሇም አቀፍ የቡና ዋጋ ውዴቀት ምክንያት የኢኮኖሚው እዴገት እንዯገና ቀሰስተኛ መሆን ጀምሮአሌ (እንዱሁም የጠቅሊሊ ብሄራዊ ምርት በ2002/2003 የበጀት አመት ቀንሷሌ)፡፡ በተጨማሪ በበኩላ እስካሁን የተዯረጉት የኢኮኖሚ ማሻሻያዎች በኢኮኖሚው አቅም ሊይ ሉያመጡ የሚችለት ማገገም ተሟጧሌ የሚሌ እምነት አሇኝ9፡፡ 9 See Easterly (2002) for some evidence on

the growth impact of policy reforms and the

limits thereof.

Economic Focus

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Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 9 Ethiopian Economic Association

መንግስት በትናንሽ እርሻዎች ምርታማነት እዴገትና የሰው ጉሌበትን በብዛት በሚጠቀም ኢንደስትሪ ሊይ የሚያተኩር ግብርና-መር የኢንደስትሪ ሌማት ስትራቴጅን ዏቢይ የሌማት መርሃ ግብሩ አዴርጎም ተቀብልአሌ ፡፡ የግብርና ምርታማነትን ሇማሳዯግ እንዯ ዋና ዘዳ የተመረጠው የኤክስቴንሽን መርሃ ግብርም በስፋት በተግባር ሊይ እየዋሇ ነው፡፡ የኢህአዳግ መንግስት እስከ ቅርብ ጊዜ ዴረስ ከቀዲሚዎቹ አገዛዞች የሚሇይበት አንዴ ባህርይ እቅዴን እንዯ ኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሲ መንዯፊያና መተግበሪያ ዋንኛ ብሌሀት የመገሌገሌን ሌማዴ መተው ነበር፡፡ ይሁን እንጂ ከ2002 ጀምሮ የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ዴህነት ቅነሳን ዋና ግቡ ያዯረገ፣ የዘሊቂ ሌማትና የዴህነት ቅነሳ መርሃ ግብር (Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program) በመባሌ የሚታወቅ የሌማት ስትራቴጅ ይፋ አዴርጓሌ፡፡ ፕሮግራሙ የኢትጵያን ኢኮኖሚያዊ ችግሮች በዝርዝር የሚገሌጽና መፍትሄዎችን የሚያመሊክት ሰነዴ ነው፡፡ ዋና ዋና ዓሊማዎቹም በሚከተሇው አንቀጽ ውስጥ በተጠቀሱት ነጥቦች ይካተታለ፤

የኢትዮጵያ የሌማት ስትራቴጅ በገጠር ሌማት፣ በቁሳዊና ሰብአዊ ካፒታሌ መሻሻሌ፣ እንዱሁም የህዝቡን አቅም ሇማጎሌበትና የሰዎችን የኑሮ አማራጮች ሇማስፋፋት ስሌጣንን ወዯህዝብ በማውረዴ በሚያስችለ ተግባራት ሊይ በማተኮር ፈጣን፣ ሰፊ መሰረት ያሇውና ፍትሃዊ

ሌማትን መሻት ይኖርበታሌ [ከእንግሉዝኛው ቅጅ የተተረጎመ] ፡፡

ይህንን መርሃ ግብር መሰረት በማዴረግ፣ መንግስት በቅርቡ የበጀት አስተዲዯር ስርዓትን ያሌተማከሇ አዴርጓሌ፤ የፍትህ ስርዓትና የሲቪሌ ሰርቪስ ማሻሻያና እንዱሁም የአቅም ግንባታ መርሃ ግብሮችን እያካሄዯ ይገኛሌ፡፡ እነዚህ መርሃ ግብሮች መሌካም የተቋማዊ ግንባታ ጅምሮች ሲሆኑ ስሇአስገኟቸው ውጤቶች አስተያየት ሇመስጠት ጊዜው ገና ነው፡፡ ያም ሆነ ይህ የመርሃ ግብሮቹ ስኬት ትክክሇኛዎቹን ማትጊያዎች (right incentives) በመስጠት በኢኮኖሚው ውስጥ ሁነኛ ሚና ያሊቸው ክፍልችን እምነትና ተግባራት ሇማስሇወጥ በመቻሌ ወይንም አሇመቻሊቸው ሊይ የሚመሰረት ይሆናሌ፡፡

የኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚ ይዞታ ከፍ ብዬ ያነሳኋቸው ሀሳቦች የኢትዮጵያ ህብረተሰብ ባሇፉት 40 ዓመታት በሌዩ ሌዩ የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ስሌቶች ውስጥ እንዲሇፈ ያመሇክታለ፡፡ የምግብ ጣዕም የሚታወቀው ሲቀመስ ነው እንዯሚባሇው ብሂሌ፣ ቁምነገሩ እነዚህ የተሇያዩ የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ፖሉሲዎች የህዝቡን ህይወት ምን ያህሌ አሻሽሇዋሌ፣ ሇውጠዋሌ ነው፡፡ ባሇፉት 40 ዓመታት የኢትዮጵያ ሰዎች አኗኗርና ዯህንነት ከዚያ ቀዯም ሲሌ ከነበረው ዘመን ምን ያህሌ ተሻሽሎሌ? በታዩ መሻሻልች እንጀምር፡፡ በነዚህ ዘመናት ውስጥ በትምህርትና በጤና ረገዴ የማይናቁ መሻሻልች

ተዯርገዋሌ፤ እየተዯረጉም ነው፡፡ በአንጻሩ ዯግሞ በነዚሁ ዘመናት የህዝቡ የምግብ ዋስትናና የስርዓተ ምግብ (nutrition) ዯረጃ በእጅጉ አሽቆሌቁሎሌ፡፡ ባሇፉት አራት አስርታት የነፍስ ወከፍ የሰራተኛ ምርት ውጤት (output per worker) የነበረበትን ዯረጃ መመሌከት ምናሌባት ሁኔታውን በተሻሇ መሌክ ሉያስረዲ ይችሊሌ፡፡ በተጠቀሰው ዘመን ነፍስ ወከፍ የሰራተኛ ምርት ውጤት ሁኔታ በኢትዮጵያ በሚከተሇው ሰንጠረዥ የተመሇከተውን ይመስሊሌ፡፡

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 10 Ethiopian Economic Association

በነፍስ ወከፍ የሰራተኛ ምርት ውጤት

የነፍስ ወከፍ ምርት ዋጋ ምጣኔ በድሊር የዕዴገት ምጣኔ

1961-1970 1212.8 1.59%

1971-1980 1360.3 0.84%

1981-1990 1341.1 -0.65%

1991-2000 1246.7 1.18%

1994-2000 1300.6 3.47%

1961-2000 0.74%

ከሰንጠረዡ በግሌጽ እንዯሚታየው ባሇፉት ዘመናት ምርታማነትን በማሳዯግና ዯህንነታችንን በማሻሻሌ ያዯረግነው ርምጃ በጣም ትንሽ ነው፡፡ ይህንን ውዴቀታችንንም በሚከተለት እውነታዎች ማረጋገጥ ይቻሊሌ፤ ሀ. በዝናብ መገብና

በሌማዲዊ/ጥንታዊ ቴክኖልጂ ሊይ በተመሰረተ ግብርና ሊይ መመርኮዝ፤

ሇ. ዝቅተኛ የሰው ኃይሌ ሌማት፤

ሏ. ዝቅተኛ የካፒታሌ ክምችት (በ2000 ዓም በተዯረገ ቅኝት ከአፍሪካ በመጨረሻ ዯረጃ ሊይ የሚገኝ በነፍስ ወከፍ ሰራተኛ ዝቅተኛ የካፒታሌ ክምችት (stock capital per worker)፤

መ. መሻሻልች ቢታዩበትም ገና ከበቂ ዯረጃ ያሌዯረሰና ያሌዲበረ የመሰረተ ሌማት፤

ሠ. ሲቪሌ ሰርቪስንና የፍትህ ስርዓት ጨምሮ ዯካማ ተቋማት (ሇምሳላ የቢሮክራሲው የጥራት ዯረጃ ሲገመገም ከከፍተኛ የአራት ነጥብ ውጤት ብቻ ነው ያገኘው)፤ ሙስና እንዱሁም የባሇንብረትነት መብቶች አሇመከበር

አንዴምታዎች ከፍ ብየ የዘረዘርኩዋቸው ማስረጃዎች ኢትዮጵያውያን እንዯ ህብረተሰብ እስካሁን ዴረስ ዘሊቂ እዴገትና ሌማት ሊይ ሇመዴረስ ሳንችሌ መቆየታችንን ያስረግጣለ፡፡ ይህም፣ ትክክሇኛውን የኢንቨስትመንት ዯረጃና አቅጣጫ ያሇመከተሊችንና፣ በዚህም ምክንያት፣ ሇፈጣን የኢኮኖሚ እዴገት ተስማሚ የሆኑ የኢኮኖሚ ሌማት ተቋማት ሇመመሰረት ያሌቻሌን መሆናችንን ያመሇክታሌ፡፡ ውዴቀታችን ከአያላ ምክንያቶች ጋር የተያያዘ ሉሆን ይችሊሌ፡፡ በአንዴ ወይም በላልች ምከንያቶች የሚመጡ ነውጦች (shocks) (ሇምሳላ ተዯጋግመው የሚከሰቱ ዴርቆች፣ ጦርነቶች እንዱሁም አሇማቀፍ የገበያዎች ዋጋ መዋዠቅ) እና እነርሱ የሚያስከትለዋቸው የረጅም ጊዜ ችግሮች፣ እንዱሁም ከታሪካችን የሚመነጩ አያላ መሰረታዊ ችግሮች በኢኮኖሚ ሌማት ወዯኋሊ ሇመቅረታችን አስተዋጽኦ እንዲዯረጉ ይታወቃሌ፡፡ በዛሬው ንግግሬ ከእነዚህ በሚሇዩና ከኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ጋር በሚያያዙ ላልች ምክንያቶች ሊይ ሊተኩር እወዲሇሁ፡፡ ይህንን የማዯርግበት ምክንያት፣ ከተጋረጡብን ሌዩ ሌዩ እንቅፋቶች መካከሌ በተሇይ እነዚህኛዎቹ

ሌንቆጣጠራቸው የምንችሌ በመሆኑና ይህንንም ካዯረግን እዴገታችንን ማፈጠን ስሇምንችሌ ነው፡፡ በዚህ መንፈስም፣ የመንግስት ፖሉሲዎች የታሇመሊቸውን ግብ ሳይመቱ ሉቀሩና ሉወዴቁ የሚችለባቸው ምክንያቶች ምን ምን እንዯሆኑ፣ እንዱሁም እነዚህን እንቅፋቶች ሇማስወገዴ ምን ማዯረግ እንዯሚኖርብን አንዲንዴ ነጥቦች አነሳሇሁ፡፡ የፖሉሲ ውጤት አሇማምጣት ምክንያቶች

ትክክሇኛነት

ፖሉሲዎች ትክክሇኛ የሚባለት፣ ህብረተሰቡ ይበጁኛሌ ብል

ከተቀበሊቸው ፍሊጎቶችና ከአገሪቱ ኢኮኖሚ አቅም ጋር ሲገናዘቡ፣

መንግስት በኢኮኖሚው ውስጥ ሉኖረው የሚገባውን ሚና የሚመጥኑ፣ እንዱሁም፣

ከኢኮኖሚውና ከመንግስት አቅም ተግባራዊ ሇመሆን የሚችለ፣

ሲሆኑ ነው፡፡

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 11 Ethiopian Economic Association

እነዚህን የትክክሇኛነት መሇኪያ እንዳት ማሟሊት ይቻሊሌ፤ መጀመሪያ መንግስት የሚመረጥባቸው የፖሇቲካ ሂዯቶች ዱሞክራሲያዊና የአብዛኛውን ህዝብ ትክክሇኛ ፍሊጎት የሚያንጸባርቁ ሉሆኑ ይገባሌ፡፡ በሁሇተኛ ዯረጃም ስሇህዝቡ ፍሊጎት፣ ስሇኢኮኖሚው አቅምና ሉያጋጥሙ ስሇሚችለ እንቅፋቶች፣ እንዱሁም ስሇ መንግስት አቅም በምርምር ሊይ የተመሰረተና ቀጣይነት ያሇው እውቀት ሉኖር ይገባሌ፡፡ ሶስተኛም፣ በዚህ እውቀት ሊይ ተመስርቶ ቅዴሚያ ሉሰጣቸው በሚገቡ ጉዲዮች ዙሪያ ውይይቶችን አካሂድ ስምምነት ሊይ መዴረስ አስፈሊጊ ነው፡፡ ሀሳቤን የሚያሰረግጥሌኝ አንዴ ምሳላ ሊምጣ፡፡ ብዙ ጊዜ የመንግስት ባሇስሌጣናት፣ ‹‹ፖሉሲው ጥሩ ነበር፣ አተገባበሩ ነው መጥፎ››፣ ሲለ ይሰማለ፡፡ ዲሩ ግን፣ የፖሉሲ አቀራረጽንና የፖሉሲ አተገባበርን ነጣጥል መመሌከት ብዙ ጊዜ ከተሳሳተ አስተሳሰብ የሚመነጭ ነው፡፡ አንዴ ፖሉሲ ጥሩና ተፈጻሚነት ያሇው (feasible) ፖሉሲ እንዱሆን ነው ከተባሇ፣ በኢኮኖሚው ውስጥ ሁነኛ ዴርሻ ያሊቸው ቡዴኖች ፖሉሲውን ተመርኩዘው ስሇሚወሰደት እርምጃዎች (responses)፣ እንዱሁም ስሇላልች ወሳኝ ጉዲዮችና ሁኔታዎች ባሌተጋነኑና ምክንያታዊነት ባሊቸው ግምቶች ሊይ ተመስርቶ የተነዯፈ ሉሆን ይገባዋሌ፡፡ ስሇዚህም፣ ‹የፖሉሲ አተገባበር እንቅፋቶች መመንጨት ያሇባቸው አስቀዴሞ ባሌታወቁና ይዯርሳለ ተብሇው ባሌተገመቱ ውጫዊ ቀውሶች (unanticipated exogenous shocks) ምክንያት

መሆን አሇበት፡፡› የአተገባበር ችግሮች ከበዙና ተዯጋጋሚ ከሆኑ ግን የፖሉሲውን ተገቢነትና አስተማማኝነት በተመሇከተ ያለንን ግምቶች ዯግመን መፈተሸ ብሌህነት ነው፡፡ ስሇህብረተሰባችን ታሪክና ስሇ ኢኮኖሚያችን አሰራር ያሇን እውቀት ውሱንነት ሇብዙ ፖሉሲዎች አሇመሳካት አንደ ምክንያት መሆኑን መገንዘብ ያሻሌ፡፡ ከዚህም በተጨማሪ ያሇን ጥቂት እውቀትም፣ በወጉ ያሌተዯራጀና ያሌተሰነዯ በመሆኑ በአስፈሇገ ጊዜ እንዯ ሌብ ስሇማይገኝ በአግባቡ ሌንጠቀምበት አሇመቻሊችንም የችግሩ አንዴ ላሊ ገጽታ ነው፡፡

አመኔታ አመኔታ የሚጣሌባቸው ፖሉሲዎች ምክንያታዊና የሚሄደበት አቅጣጫ የሚገመት፣ እንዱሁም እርስ በእርሳቸው የተጣጣሙና የተቀናጁ ናቸው፡፡

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አንድ ህብረተሰብ መንግስት በሻው ጊዜ ተነስቶ ያሻውን ማዴረግ እንዯማይችሌና ተጠያቂነት እንዲሇበት ማረጋገጫ መንገድችን መንዯፍ ያስፈሌገዋሌ፡፡ ይህን ከመሰለት ማረጋገጫዎች መካከሌ የሥሌጣን ክፍፍሌንና ገዯብን (checks and balances) የሚዯነግጉ ህገ-መንግስታዊ አንቀጾች ጥሩ ምሳላዎች ናቸው፡፡ የጠንካራ ሲቪሌ ማህበረሰብ ማበብ በመንግሥት ሊይ ተጨማሪ ገዯብ የሚያበጅና በዚያም ምክንያት የአመኔታ ችግርን የሚቀንስ ላሊው መንገዴ ነው፡፡ እነዚህ ተቋማት፣ መንግስት ፖሉሲዎችን እንዲይቀሇብስና በፖሉሲ ቅሌበሳ ሉከሰቱ የሚችለ ችግሮች እንዲይኖሩ ይረዲለ፡፡ መሌካም ስም ማግኘትም ላሊው መንግስት የህዝቡን ዘሊቂ አመኔታ እንዱያገኝ የሚረዲ ዘዳ ነው፡፡ በሌዩ ሌዩ ጉዲዮች ሊይ እርስ በእርስ የሚጋጩ/ተፃራሪ ፖሉሲዎች እንዲይቀረጹ መጠንቀቅና በሌዩ ሌዩ የመንግስት ክፍልች መካከሌ ውጤታማ ቅንጅት መፍጠር የህዝብን አመኔታ ሇማግኘት ላሊው ቁሌፍ ጉዲይ ነው፡፡ የሌዩ ሌዩ የፖሉሲ መስኮችና ጉዲዬች ገዯብ መወሰንና የአስፈጻሚ ክፍልችን ስሌጣንና ኃሊፊነት በግሌጽ ሇይቶ መዯንገግ በሌዩ ሌዩ የመንግስት አካሊት መካከሌ ቅንጅት ሇመፍጠር በጣም ጠቃሚ ስሌት ነው፡፡

በፖሉሲ አቀራረጽ ሂዯት ውስጥ ሚስጥር ማብዛት ወይም ግሌጽ አሇመሆን የተአማኒነትን ችግር ያባብሳሌ፡፡ ሚስጥራዊነት አሇመተማመንን በመፍጠር በፖሉሲ ጉዲዮች ሊይ የጋራ ስምምነት ሇመመስረት የሚዯረጉ ጥረቶችን ሂዯት ይገዴባሌ፡፡ የሀሳብ ሌዩነቶችን በማስፋት፣ አሸናፊውና

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 12 Ethiopian Economic Association

ተሸናፊው ወገኖች መካከሌ መራራቅ/መቃቃር እንዱፈጠር ያዯርጋሌ፡፡ በተጨማሪም፣ የመረጃ እጥረት ያስከትሊሌ፡፡ የትክክሇኛና ወቅታዊ መረጃዎች እንዯሌብ አሇመገኘት ዯግሞ አዴሎዊና ከእውነት የራቁ መረጃዎች በፍጥነት እንዱሰራጩ፣ ሃሜትና አለባሌታ እንዱስፋፋ ያዯርጋሌ፡፡ ግሌጽነትና የጋራ ስምምነት አመኔታ የማጣትን ስጋትና አዯጋ ይቀንሳለ፡፡ በጋራ ስምምነት (consensus) ሊይ የተመሠረተ የፖሉሲ ቀረጻ ሂዯት አያላ ጠቀሜታዎች አለት፡፡ ከሁለ በፊት፣ ዱሞክራሲያዊና ግሌጽ በሆነ መንገዴ ስምምነት ሊይ መዴረስ በራሱ እንዯ አንዴ ውጤት ይቆጠራሌ፡፡ ሁሇተኛም፣ የሁለም ወገኖች ከስምምነት ሊይ መዴረስ፣ በባሊንጣነት ስሜት ከሚካሄደ እሰጥ አገባዎችና አሸናፊ ሆኖ ሇመውጣት ከሚዯረጉ ሙግቶች ይሌቅ የተሻለና ጥራት ያሊቸው ፖሉሲዎችን ሇመቅረፅ የሚረደ ግሌጽና ጠቃሚ ውይይቶች እንዱኖሩ ያበረታታሌ፡፡ በሶስተኛ ዯረጃም፣ ከቅን ሌቦና፣ ከብሌሀትና ከእውቀት ከመነጨና እንዯ ባህሌ ከተቆጠረ የጋራ ስምምነት የሁለንም ወገኖች የጋራ እምነትና ጥቅም ያሰከብራሌ፡፡ በአራተኛ ዯረጃ፣ እነዚህን መሰልቹ ውይይቶች ስሇህዝቡ ፍሊጎቶች፤ ምኞቶች፤ ስጋቶችና እዯርስበቶች (expectations) መረጃ መሰብሰቢያ ዘዳዎች ስሇሚሆኑ መንግስት ፖሉሲዎችን በመቅረጽና በመተግበር ሂዯት የሚያጋጥሙትን የመረጃ ችግሮች ሉያቃሌለ ይችሊለ፡፡ በአጭሩ በፖሉሲ ፓኬጆች ሊይ የጋራ ስምምነት መዴረስን ባህሌ ማዴረግ የፖሉሲዎችን ትክክሇኛነትና ተአማኒነት ያጠነክራሌ፡፡

የህዝብ አመኔታ በእጅጉ አስፈሊጊ የሚሆንበት ምክንያት በኢኮኖሚው ውስጥ የሚሳተፉ ክፍልች ፖሉሲዎች አይቀሇበሱም ብሇው እስካሊመኑ ዴረስ (በግሌጽ የሇውጥን አስፈሊጊነት እስካሊመኑ)፣ እምነታችውንና ተግባራቸውን ከፖሉሲዎች ጋር ሇማጣጣም ስሇማይጣጣሩ ነው፡፡ ‹‹ፈረስ ያዯርሳሌ እንጂ አይዋጋም›› እንዯሚባሇው ፖሉሲዎች በራሳቸው ብቻ ሇውጥ ማምጣት አይችለም፡፡ ሇምሳላ፤ መንግስት ትምህርት ቤቶችንና የጤና ተቋማትን ሉገነባ ይችሊሌ፤ ዲሩ ግን፣ ውጤት ሉገኝ የሚችሇው ወሊጆች ሌጆቻቸውን ወዯ ትምህርት ቤቶቹ ሇመሊክ ፈቃዯኞች ሲሆኑ፣ ሰዎችም በታመሙ ጊዜ እንዯ ወትሯቸው የሇመዶቸውን የፈውስ መንገድች ከመከተሌ ይሌቅ ወዯ ጤና ተቋማት ሄዯው ሇመታከም ፈቃዯኞች ሲሆኑ ብቻ ነው፡፡ እነኚህ ሇውጦች የሚመጡት ወሊጆችና ህዝቡ አዲዱሶቹ ነገሮች ሇእነርሱ መሌካም መሆናቸውን ሰሊመኑ ብቻ ሳይሆን እነዚህ አዲዱስ አገሌግልት ሰጭ ተቋማት እንዯሚያዛሌቋቸውና አገሌግልታቸው እንዯማይቋረጥ እርግጠኛ ሲሆኑ ጭምር ነው፡፡ ወዯ ኢትዮጵያ ሁኔታ ስንመጣ በበኩላ ሇአንዲንዴ ጅምር የፖሉሲ ተግባራት ህዝቡ የሚሰጠው ምሊሽ (response) መቀዝቀዝ መንስኤ በፖሉሲዎቹ ሊይ አመኔታ ማጣት ነው የሚሌ ጥርጣሬ አሇኝ፡፡ ይህንን ጥርጣሬዬን የሚያጎለ ምክንያቶቼን ሇጊዜው ሊቆያቸውና ስሇመሌካም የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዯር ያሇኝን ርዕይ ሌዘርዝር፡፡

የእኔ ርዕይ በዚህ ህዝባዊ የውይይት መዴረክ ተገኝተው ርዕያቸውን እንዲመሇከቱን ያገሬ ሰዎች ሁለ እኔም በበኩላ በ2020 ዘመን ሰሊም የሰፈነበት፤ የሀሳብ፣ የእምነት፣ የአመሇካከት፣ ወዘተ... ሌዩነትና እኩሌነት የነገሰባት (pluralistic) እና የበሇፀገች ኢትዮጵያን ሇማየት እናፍቃሇሁ፡፡ በዚህ አይነቱ ህብረተሰብ ሁነኛ ባህርይና መሰረት የኢኮኖሚ አስተዲዲሩ ሁኔታ ነው ብዬ ስሇማምንም ይፋ (open)፣ ከሁኔታዎች ጋር እራሱን የሚያስማማ (flexible)፣ በተጠያቂነት (accountability)፣ እና ግሌፅነት (transparency) ሊይ የተመሠረተ ፖሉሲ አቀራረፅና አተገባበር ስርአት በሀገራችን ተገንብቶ ሇማየት እመኛሇሁ፡፡ በተሇይ ዯግሞ፤ 1. የፖሉሲ ውሳኔዎችን ተገቢነት

የማያረጋግጥ ግዳታና በውሳኔዎች ውጤትም ኃሊፊነት መውሰዴ በህግ የተዯነገገበትና በሁለም ክፍሌ ሊይ የሚተገበርበት፣ ከዚያም በሊይ ባህሌ የሆነበት፤

2. የፖሉሲ ውሳኔዎችና

ምክንያቶቻቸው ከነሱም ጋር የተያያዘው የተጠያቂነት ሥርዓት ሇህዝብ ግሌጽ የሆኑበት እንዱሁም ከፖሉሲ ጋር አግባብነት ያሊቸውንና ላልች መረጃዎች ህዝቡ እንዯሌብ በተሟሊና ወቅቱን በጠበቀ ሁኔታ የሚገኙበት፤

3. ሁለም ተጠቃሚ ወገኖች (Stakeholders) በሌዩ ሌዩ መሌኮች የሚሳተፉበት ፖሉሲ ከመቀረጹ አስቀዴሞና ተቀርጾ ከወጣ በኋሊ የሚዯረግ ምክንያታዊና ገንቢ ውይይትና፣ ከተሇያዩ ወገኖች የሚመጡ አስተያየቶችን

Economic Focus

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Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 13 Ethiopian Economic Association

ሇመቀበሌ ዝግጁነት፣ መዯበኛነትና ቀጣይነት ያሇው የውይይት መዴረክ በቋሚነት የሚከፈትበት ፤

4. ኢኮኖሚያዊ እውቀትና ምርምር ሞገስ የሚያገኙበት፣ በተቀሊጠፈ ሁኔታ በተግባር ሊይ የሚውለበትና በየጊዜው በሚዯረግ በቂ ኢንቨስትመንት እየተዯገፉ የሚዲብሩበት ስርዓት፤ እና

5. አዯገኛ የኢኮኖሚ ነውጦችን በአግባቡ ሇመቋቋም የሚያስችሌ የቅዴመ ማስጠንቀቂያ አቅም (pre-warning capacity) በወጉ የዲበረበት፤

ሁኔታ በኢትዮጵያ ተፈጥሮ ማየት እሻሇሁ፡፡

ምን መዯረግ አሇበት ከፍ ብዬ ያመሊከትኩትን ርዕይ ወዯ እውነታነት ሇመተርጎም በርካታ ነገሮች ያስፈሌጋለ፡፡ ከሁለም በሊይ ግን ሁሇት ጉዲዮችን ሇመሇወጥ መጣጣር ወሳኝ መሆኑን አምናሇሁ፡፡መሰረታዊ ሇውጥ ከሚያስፈሌጋቸው እነዚህ ነገሮች አንደ ኢኮኖሚያዊ ጉዲዮቻችንን የምንይዝበትና የምንመራበት መንገዴ ሲሆን፣ ላሊኛው ይህን መንገዴ በመወሰን ረገዴ ሁነኛ ሚና ያሎቸው ማህበራዊ ሌማድችና እምነቶች ናቸው፡፡ ከዚህ ቀጥዬ እነዚህን ጉዲዮች በአንጻራዊ ፋይዲቸው ዯረጃ ሳይሆን እንዯ አመጣጣቸው ሇማብራራት እሞክራሇሁ፡፡ መሇወጥ ያሇባቸው ሌማድቻችን፣ እምነቶቻችንና አመሇካከቶቻችን ፤ የግሌ ወይም የራስ ጥቅም (self-interest) በንግዴም ይሁን በመንግስት አገሌግልት፣ ወይም

በትምህርትና ምርምር ዘርፍ፣ ወይም በላልች ህጋዊ ሥራዎችና ተግባራት፣ የራስን ጥቅም መሻት ተገቢነት ባሇው መንገዴ እስከተፈጸመ ዴረስ ሉበረታታና ሉዯገፍ የሚገባው ጉዲይ መሆን አሇበት፡፡ ይህንን ጉዲይ ማንሳቴ፣ ማህበረሰባችን የላሊ ሰው ስኬት የማያስዯስተውና የሚያስከፋው መስል ስሇሚታይ ነው፡፡ ሇጊዜው ስሙን የዘነጋሁት አንዴ ጸሏፊ (ወንዴ መሆኑን ግን ርግጠኛ ነኝ)፣ የሚኖርበትንና የበቀሇበትን ህብረተሰብ፣ የገሇጸው ‹‹የእኛ ህብረተሰብ ሁሇት ነገሮችን አምርሮ ይጠሊሌ፣ ስኬትንና ውዴቀትን›› በማሇት ነበር፡፡ እኔም የእኛ ህብረተሰብ የዚህ ዓይነቱ ጥሊቻ (prejudice) የበዛበት ይመስሇኛሌ፡፡ የዚህ መሰለ ጥሊቻ የመጨረሻ ውጤት ዯካማነት ወይም ነፈዝነት የሚወዯስበት ሕብረተሰብ ነው፡፡ ይህንን ስሌ፣ ማህበራዊ ግዴየሇሽነትን (Laissez - faire) ማዴነቄና መዯገፌ አይዯሇም፡፡ የማህበራዊነትንና የጋራ ተግባራትን አስፈሊጊነት አምናሇሁ፤ ከሌክ ያሇፈ ራስ ወዲዲዴነትና ገዯብ የሇሽ የግሌ ጥቅምን መሻት በማህበረሰብ ዯህንነት ሊይ የሚያስከትሊቸውን አዯጋዎችንም እገነዘባሇሁ፡፡ አበው፣ ‹‹ዓሳውም እንዲይሞት፣ ባህሩም እንዲይዯርቅ›› እንዱለ፣ መፍትሄው ያሇው እመሀሌ ቤት ነው፡፡ ሰዎች ተገቢነት ባሇው ሁኔታ የግሌ ጥቅማቸውን ይሹ ዘንዴ የሚያዯፋፍሩ የማበረታቻ ስሌቶችን መቀየስ፣ ግሇሰቡ የማህበሩን ፍሊጎቶች ሳይጋፋ፣ ማህበሩ በፈንታው ግሇሰቡን ሳይበዴሌ፣ የግሌ ጥቅምና የወሌ ጥቅም ሳይጋጩ ጎን ሇጎን መራመዴ ይችለ ዘንዴ የሚረዲ ሚዛናዊ የፖሉሲ ስርዓት መገንባት፣ እንዱሁም ሸፍጠኞችና አጥፊዎች

የሚታረሙበትና ሇጥፋታቸው ተገቢውን ቅጣት የሚያገኙበት የፍትህ ስርዓት ማስፈን አስፈሊጊ ነው፡፡ እነዚህ ሁኔታዎች በተግባር እስካሌዋለ ዴረስ ግን እዴገትንና መሻሻሌን ማሰብ ዘበት ይመስሇኛሌ፡፡ ተግባሩ ከባዴና ውስብስብ ሉሆን እንዯሚችሌ ይታየኛሌ፣ ሆኖም ከባዴ ነውና አይቻሌም፣ ወይም ሩቅና አዴካሚ ነው ብሇን ሌንተወው አይገባንም፡፡ ሩቅ ተጓዥ የጉዞውን አስቸጋሪነት ተቀምጦ ከማሰሊሰሌ ይሌቅ፣ አስፈሊጊውን ነገር አዘጋጅቶ በጊዜ መንገዴ መግባት የተሻሇ ምርጫው እንዯሚሆን፣ እንዯዚህም ሁለ ፣ እኛም ወዯፊት ሇመራመዴ የምንችሇው፣ ችግሮቻችን ነቅሰን ሇማውጣት ስንችሌ፣ መፍትሄ ሉሆኑ የሚችለ ሌዩ ሌዩ አማራጮችን ሇይተን ማመሌከት ስንችሌና፣ በእነርሱ ሊይ ተወያይተን የተሻሇ ጥቅም የሚያሰገኙሌንን መምረጥና በተግባር ማዋሌ፣ ቀስ በቀስም ይህንን መሰለን አሰራር ሌማዴና ስርዓት ማዴረግ ስንችሌ ብቻ ነው፡፡ ስሇመንግስት ያሇን አመሇካከት

መንግስትን የማይመጠን ስሌጣን ያሇው አካሌ አዴርጎ የመውሰዴ ስር የሰዯዯ አመሇካከት በሕብረተሰባችን ውስጥ ያሇ ይመስሇኛሌ፡፡ ስሇመንግስት ከታሪካችን የወረስነው ይህ የተሳሳተ አመሇካከት፣ መንግስትን በአንዴ በኩሌ ግዙፍ በላሊ በኩሌ ዯግሞ ትንሽ እንዯሆነ በሚያገናዝብ

አተያይ መተካት ይኖርበታሌ፡፡ ከአንዴ ግሇሰብ አንጻር ሲታይ መንግስት ግዙፍ አካሌ ነው፡፡ ስሇዚህም በዚህ ግዙፍ አካሌ፣ የግሇሰቦች ሰብአዊ መብቶች

Economic Focus

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Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 14 Ethiopian Economic Association

እንዲይዯፈጠጡ አሁን ካሇው የበሇጠና የተጠናከረ የሰብአዊ መብቶች ማስከበሪያ ስርዓት

መዘርጋት ያስፈሌገናሌ፡፡

ሇአገራችን ከሚያስፈሌጋት የማህበረ-ኢኮኖሚያዊ መሻሻሌ አንጻር ስንመሇከተው ዯግሞ የመንግስት አቅም በጣም ትንሽ ነው፡፡ ይህንን እውነት ሇማስረገጥ የመንግስትን ዓመታዊ በጀት መመሌከት ይረዲሌ፡፡ በ2002 የበጀት ዓመት መንግስት 68 ሚሉዮን የሚገመተውን የአገራችንን ህዝብ ወቅታዊና የወዯፊት ፍሊጎቶች ሇማሟሊት ወጭ ያዯረገው ገንዘብ ከ20 ቢሉዮን ብር አይበሌጥም፡፡ ይህ የመንግስት ዓመታዊ ወጭ፣ መቶ የሚሆኑ የቤተሰቧን አባሊት ዓመታዊ የትምህርት፣ የጤና፣ እና ላልች መሰረታዊ የዯህንነት ፍሊጎቶች ሇማሟሊት፣ እንዱሁም፣ ሇቤተሰቡ የወዯፊት ኑሮ ዋስትና አስፈሊጊ የሆኑ ኢንቨስትመንቶችን በ30000 ብር ዓመታዊ በጀት ሇማስተዲዯር ዯፋ ቀና ከምትሌ አንዱት ባተላ እማወራ ጋር ይመሳሰሊሌ፡፡ በዚህ አይነት አነስተኛ በጀት በሚተዲዯር ቤተሰብና አገር

ውስጥ ዯግሞ የብዙ ሰዎች ፍሊጎቶች እንዯማይሟለ የታወቀ ነው፡፡ የእኛን ዓይነት የዴህነት ኢኮኖሚ ማስተዲዯር እጅግ አስቸጋሪ ነው፡፡ የአገርን ኢኮኖሚ ማስተዲዯር ቀርቶ፣ ብዙዎቻችን የየቤታችንን ጣጣ ሇመሸፈን ምን ያክሌ ውጣውረዴ እንዲሇብን የምናውቀው ነው፡፡ይህንን ስሌ፣ በመንግስት በኩሌ ሉከሰት የሚችሇውን ንዝህሊሌነት፣ አባካኝነት ወይም ላልች ኢ—ምግባራዊ ተግባራትን ይቅር ማሇት ተገቢ ነው ማሇቴ አይዯሇም፡፡ አጠንክሬ ሇመግሇጽ

የፈሇግሁት፣ ስሇመንግስት ኢኮኖሚያዊ አቅም ያለንን የተጋነኑና የተሳሳቱ ግንዛቤዎችን ማስተካከሌ እንዯሚያስፈሌግ ነው፡፡ ይህ ማሳሰቢያም ሇፖሉሲ ቀራጮች የሚከተለት አንዴምታዎች አለት፤ ፖሉሲ አዉጪዎች፣ በምርጫ ወይም በሹመት ህብረተሰቡ ውክሌናና ስሌጣን የሰጣቸው፣ የስሌጣን ውክሌና ዘመናቸው የተወሰነና ጊዚያዊ መሆኑንና፣ በተሇይም እነርሱም እንዯማንኛውም ሰው የሚሳሳቱ መሆናቸውን ሉገነዘቡ ይገባቸዋሌ፡፡ እነዚህ እምነቶች በህብረተሰባችን ውስጥ ገና ስር ያሌሰዯደ መሆናቸውን ታሪካችን ያሳያሌ፡፡ ከዚህም በተጨማሪ በሚቀርጿቸው ፖሉሲዎች ውሱን አቅም (limitations)

ምክንያት ህብረተሰባችን ያሇበትን የኑሮ ሁኔታ በፍጥነት ሇመሇወጥ ፖሉሲዎች ብቻ በቂ እንዲሌሆኑ ሉገነዘቡ ይገባሌ፡፡ ይህንንም በራሳቸው አንዯበት ሇህዝቡ በይፋ ሇመግሇጽ ፈቃዯኞች መሆን ይኖርባቸዋሌ፡፡ ይህንንም ማዴረጋቸው፣ ከሁለ በሊይ፣ መንግስትና የመንግስት ፖሉሲዎች ፍጹምና እንከን የሇሽ ናቸው ወይም መንግስት ሁሌጊዜ ትክክሌ ነው የሚሇው ስር የሰዯዯዯና የቆየ እምነት ስህተት እንዯሆነ ማህበረሰባችን እንዱገነዘብ ይረዲሌ፤ በመንግስት ተግባራትና ፖሉሲዎች ሊይ ሰዎች አስተያየት እንዲይሰጡና የተሰማቸውን እንዲይገሌጡ ሇጉሞ የሚይዛቸውን ፍርሃትም ያሰወግዲሌ፡፡ ፖሉሲ አውጭዎች፣ ፖሉሲዎች ውጤታማ የሚሆኑት የዜጎችን አመኔታና ዴጋፍ ሲያገኙ ብቻ መሆኑንም ማመን ይኖርባቸዋሌ፡፡

ስሇመንግስት ያለን አመሇካከቶችና እምነቶች መሇወጥ ሇዜጎች ያሇው አንዴምታ ምንዴነው?

ዜጎች የመንግስትን አቅም ውሱንነት በመገንዘብ የግሊችንንና የማህበረሰባችንን የኑሮ ዯህንነት በማረጋገጥ ረገዴ የሚኖሩንን ሚናዎች በአግባቡ መፈጸም ይኖርብናሌ፡፡ ሚናችንንና ተግባራችንን በአግባቡ ሌንወጣ እስካሌቻሌን ዴረስም ሁኔታዎች ሉሻሻለ እንዯማይችለ አምነን መቀበሌ ይኖርብናሌ፡፡ ከዜጎች ከሚጠበቁ ነገሮች መካከሌ፣ ታክስ መክፈሌ፣ በፖሉሲ ጉዲዮች ሊይ ገንቢ ውይይቶችን ማካሄዴ፣ ስራችንንና ኃሊፊነትን በቅንነትና በታታሪነት መወጣት፣ እንዱሁም የፖሉሲ አውጭዎች ኃሊፊነትና ተግባር አስቸጋሪ፣ አዴካሚና ፈታኝ መሆኑን መገንዘብ፣ ጥቂቶቹ ናቸው፡፡

ኃሊፊነትን መውሰዴ

አንዲንዳ፣ ኢትዮጵያውያን እንዯ ማህበር ክፉ የስሞተኛነት ባህሌ (blame culture) በእጅጉ የተጠናወተን መስል ይሰማኛሌ (ምናሌባትም ከዚህ በፊት ላልች ሰዎች ተናግረውት ሉሆን ይችሊሌ)፡፡ ብዙ ጊዜ ሇችግሮቻችን ላልች ወገኖችን ተወቃሽና ኃሊፊ እናዯርጋሇን፡፡ በሌማት ወዯ ኋሊ ሇመቅረታችን፣ ህብረተሰቡንና ባህሊችን በጅምሊ፣ ወይም የዘመኑን የአየር ሁኔታ፣ ወይም መንግስትን፣ አሇቆቻችንንና የተሳሳቱ ፖሉሲዎችን፣ ወይም ‹ስግብግብ ነጋዳዎችን›፣ ወይም ‹አርቀው የማያስቡ ገበሬዎች›ን፣ ወይም ግልባሊይዜሽንን ተጠያቂ አዴርገን እናቀርባሇን፡፡ መቼም ቢሆን፣ ሇመጣው ጥፋት ወይም ሇሆነው ነገር ‹እኔ› ኃሊፊነኝ ወይም

Economic Focus

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x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 15 Ethiopian Economic Association

‹እኛ› ኃሊፊ ነን ስንሌ አንሰማም፡፡ ከፍ ብዬ ከዘረዘርኳቸው መካከሌ ብዙዎቹ የችግር መንስዔ አይዯለም ወይም በእዴገትና በሌማት ተግባራት ሊይ አለታዊ ተጽእኖዎች አያሳዴሩም ማሇቴ አይዯሇም፡፡ እየተቃወምኩ ያሇሁት፣ ሇችግሮቻችን አፋጣኝና ዘሊቂ መፍትሄዎች እንዲንፈሌግ እንቅፋት ሲሆነን የኖረውንና አሁንም እየሆነን ያሇውን ኃሊፊነትንና ተጠያቂነትን ወዯ ላልች የመግፋት ሌምዲችንን ነው፡፡ ይህ ሌማዴ በሚያሰገርም ሁኔታ የተስፋፋና ስር የሰዯዯ ነው፡፡ ከተራ ቤተሰባዊ ህይወት እስከ ታሊሊቅ ህዝባዊ ውይይቶችና ምክክሮች ‹‹ላልች›› ሲወገዙ መስማት የተሇመዯ ነው፡፡ ከግሌ ኑሮዬ አንዲንዴ ምሳላዎችን መናገር ቢፈቀዴሌኝ፣ እኛ ቤት አንዴ ጥፋት የሚባሌ ነገር ከተፈጸመ፣ እንበሌ፣ ከመጻህፍቶቼ አንደን ከሚቀመጥበት ቦታ ፈሌጌ ባጣው፣ እኔ ነኝ ያነሳሁት የሚሌ ባሇመኖሩ፣ ጥፋተኛውን ማወቅ በእጅጉ አስቸጋሪ ነው፡፡ እያንዲንደ ሰው ሲጠየቅ ‹‹እኔ የሇሁበትም›› ሇማሇት ይፈጥናሌ፡፡ ሁኔታው ከተረጋጋና መጽሃፉ የተፈሇገበት ጊዜ ካሇፈ በኋሊ ግን አንደ ወይም ላሊው የቤተሰባችን አባሌ፣ ‹‹ኦ! ያ በቀዯም ተፈሌጎ የጠፋው መጽሃፍ ተገኝቷሌ፣ እንትኑ ውስጥ አስቀምጨው እንዯ ነበረ ረስቼ ነው፤›› ሉሌ ይችሊሌ፡፡ እነዚህን መሰልቹ ነገሮችም የእሇት ተእሇት ጨዋታ ከሆኑ ጊዜው ዋሌ አዯር ብሎሌ፡፡ ይህ ነገር የተፈጠረው እኔና ባሇቤቴ መጥፎ የቤተሰብ አስተዲዲሪዎች ስሇሆንን ነው ብዬ ሇማመን እቸገራሇሁ፡፡ የችግሩ ዋና መንስዔ ነው ብዬ የምጠረጥረው ኃሊፊነትን ወዯ ላሊ የማስተሊሇፍ፣ በላልች የማሳበብ ሌማዴ ነው፡፡

ላሊ ጠንከር ያሇ ምሳላ ሊምጣ፡፡ ጉዲይ ኖሯችሁ በሄዲችሁባቸው ስፍራዎች፣ ጉዲያችሁን ሇማሰፈጸም ማሟሊት ያለባችሁ መመሪያዎችና ህጎች ምን እንዯሆኑ፣ ወይም ስሇ መስሪያቤቱ አሰራር ያስረዶችሁ ዘንዴ የሚመሇከታቸውን ክፍልች ጠይቃችሁ ግሌጽና ቁርጥ ያሇ መሌስ ያገኛችሁባቸው አጋጣሚዎች ምን ያህሌ ትንሽ እንዯሆኑ ማስታወስ ትችሊሊችሁ፡፡ ይህ አይነቱ ሁኔታ በመንግስት መስሪያ ቤቶችም፣ በግሌ ዴርጅቶችም የተሇመዯ መሆኑ ዯግሞ ችግሩ ምን ያክሌ ስር የሰዯዯ እንዯሆነ ያሳያሌ፡፡ በሌዩ ሌዩ ምክንያቶች፣ ‹ሇምን› እና ‹እንዳት› ይዯባሇቁብናሌ፣ ወይም፣ አንዴ ነገር ሇምን ሆነ ተብሇን ስንጠየቅ መሌስ ስሇማይኖረን ቁጣ ይቀናናሌ፡፡ ኢትዮጵያውያን በወጉ የታሰበባቸውና ተሇይተው የታወቁ የህይወት ዓሊማዎች ሉኖሩን እንዱሁም የመንፈስ ዝግጁነትን ሌናዲብር ይገባናሌ፡፡ ከዚህም ጋር የኃሊፊነት ስሜትን ማጎሌበት ይኖርብናሌ፡፡ bXRG_ yMNñrW bxND

¥HbrsB (collective) WS_

Slçn k² ¥HbrsB XN-

q¥lN:: b² ¥HbrsBM kä§

¯dL XNwsÂlN¿ ngR GN

mRúT yl@lBN Ã ¥HbrsB

?Brtsb# b-Q§§M Yh#N

wYM l@§ y?BrtsB xµL

y¸ñrW bxB²¾W bWSÈCN

y¸gl[WM bXÃNÄNÄCN nW::

Slz!H ‰úCNN ClN y¥sBÂ

ymtGbR sÍ Ãl nÚnT xlN

ብü xMÂlh#:: YH nÚnT _rT

k¬klbT XÃNÄNÄCN X‰úCNN፣ bz!ÃM x¥µ"nT ¥HbrsÆCNN

ymlw_ ClÖ¬N Yf_‰L::

kz!HM GlsÆêE nÚnT፣ GlsÆêE `§ðnT YmnÅL::

አርበኝነት በበኩላ አርበኝነት አንዴን ሰው ከህብረተሰቡ ጋር በጠንካራ ስሜታዊ ትስስር የሚያቆራኝ፣ ግሇሰቡ ስሇህብረተሰቡ ባሇው አወንታዊ እምነት የሚወከሌና ሇዜጎች ዯህንነት የሚበጁ ተግባራትን ሇመፈጸም ግሇሰቡ በሚኖረው ፈቃዯኝነት የሚገሇጽ እሴት (value) ነው፡፡ አርበኝነት ብዙ መገሇጫ ባህርያትና ገጽታዎች ቢኖሩትም፣ አንዴ ሰው ሇቤተሰቡ ከሚያሳየው ቁምነገረኛነትና የቤተሰቡንና በተሇይም የሌጆቹን የአሁንና የወዯፊት ዯህንነት አስተማማኝ ሇማዴረግ ከሚፈጽማቸው ተግባራትና ከሚያዯርጋቸው ጥንቃቄዎች ይጀምራሌ ብዬ አምናሇሁ፡፡ አርበኛ መባሌ ያሇበት ማነው? ብሇን ስንጠይቅ፣ በእርግጠኝነት አፋችንን ሞሌተን የምንናገረውና በጣም የተሇመዯው መሌስ፣ የሃገራቸውን ለአሊዊነት ሇማስከበር በጦር ሜዲ የመጨረሻውና መስዋዕትነት የከፈለ ሲቪሌ ጀግኖችና ወታዯሮች ናቸው የሚሌ ነው፡፡ ይህንን መሰለን ጀግንነት የሚጠይቁ ሁኔታዎች እየቀነሱ መጥተዋሌ፡፡ የአርበኝነት ሰንጠረዥ ላልችንም ሙያዎችና ተግባራት መጨመር አሇበት ብዬ አምናሇሁ፡፡ ይህ ከሆነ ዘንዴ በእኛ ህብረተሰብ ውስጥ፣ ከሌፋታቸው ያገኙትን ትርፍና ጥሪት ወዯ ውጭ አገር ሳያሸሹ መሌሰው አገራቸው ውስጥ ሇኢቨስትመንት የሚያውለ ባሇሃብቶች፣ በውጭ አገር ትምህርታቸውን አጠናቀው የሚመሇሱ ሰዎች፣ የማህበረሰባቸውን ችግሮች ሇማመናመን አቅማቸው በቻሇ መጠን ዯፋ ቀና የሚለ ሰዎች አርበኛ መባሌ ያንሳቸዋሌን? ብዙ ነገሮች ባሌተሟለባቸው

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 16 Ethiopian Economic Association

ትምህርት ቤቶች ትውሌዴን ሇማስተማርና ሇማሰሌጠን ቆርጠው የተነሱ መምህራንና የሚከፈሊቸውን ዯመወዝ bqE xlmçN ከቁብ ሳይጥፉ ኃሊፊነታቸውንና ግዳታዎቻቸውን በቅንነትና በታታሪነት የሚፈጽሙ የመንግስት ሰራተኞችስ በእኛ አገር ሁኔታ አርበኞች አይዯለም ማሇት ይቻሊሌን? ከኤች አይ ቪ/ ኤዴስ እና ከላልች ጠንቀኛ በሽታዎች የሚዋጉ፣ በተሇይ ቫይረሱ በዯማቸው ውስጥ መኖሩን ካወቁ በኋሊ ሇበቀሌና ሇበዯሌ ሳይሆን ላልችን ሇመታዯግና ሇማስተማር ቆርጠው የተነሱ ወገኖች፣ በምርምርና በፈጠራ ስራ ሊይ ተጠምዯው ሇሰው ሌጆች ህይወት አንዴ ተጨማሪ መሌካም ነገር ሇማስገኘትና እውቀትን ሇማስፋፋት ተግተው የሚመረምሩ ሳይንቲስቶች፣ ምርታቸውን ሇማሳዯግ ላት ከቀን የሚታትሩ ገበሬዎች፣ እነዚህና ላልች ሰዎች የአርበኝነት ተግባር አሌፈጸሙም ማሇት አይቻሌም፡፡ ከእነዚህ ከፍ ብዬ ከዘረዘርኩዋቸው ቡዴኖች በተነጻጻሪ አገራቸውን ትተው ሇመሄዴ ያቆበቆቡ ዜጎች ምን ያክሌ በርካታ እንዯሆኑ ከጥቂት ሳምንታት በፊት በዱቪ ማዕከልች የነበረው የዯራ ገበያና ሰሌፍ የሚመሰክር ይመስሇኛሌ፡፡ የዱቪ ቪዛ ሇማግኘት አመሌክተውና ተሳክቶሊቸው የሄደ የተዯራጀና የተዯሊዯሇ ኑሮ ይመሩ የነበሩ ሰዎችን አውቃሇሁ፡፡ ይህን ማሇቴ፣ እነዚህ ሰዎች የሚፈሌጉትን ነገር ሇመምረጥ ያሊቸውን ግሇሰባዊ መብትና ነጻነት መቃወም እንዲይመስሌብኝ እሰጋሇሁ፡፡ እኔ የላልችን ምርጫዎች አከብራሇሁ፡፡ Slz!HM xSrG˜ mÂgR

yMfLgW፣ btlY በአገራቸው ሇመቆየትና ወዯ አገራቸው ሇመመሇስ ቁርጠኝነት ያሊቸውን

ሰዎች ማህበrsÆCN ማKbRÂ

¥DnQ XNd¸ñRbT nWÝÝ

Xnz!H wgñC በአገራቸው ሇመኖር ወይም ወዯ አገራቸው ሇመመሇስ የወዯደት ላሊ ምርጫ ስሇላሊቸው የሚመስሊቸው፣ xg¶t$ MRÅ

§§cW lsãCê yMTs-W

እዴሌ የሊትም ብሇው የሚያምኑ ሰዎች l!ñ„ YC§l#፡፡ XnRs#

l@lÖCN úYçN ‰úcWN ZQ

xDRgW y¸mlkt$Â y¸zLû

mçN xlÆcW ብዬ አምናሇሁ፡፡

በእርግጥ፣ ከፍ ብዬ አርበኞች መባሌ እንዲሇባቸው የጠቀስኩዋቸው ክፍልች እንዯማንኛወም ሰው ወይም ማህበራዊ ቡዴን ዴክመቶች አያጡም፡፡ እnz!H እንከኖች tlYtW ሉታወቁና ktÒlM

l!¬rÑ YgÆL፡፡ የአንዲንዴ

እንከኖች መኖር፣ yXnz!HN

xRb®C êU y¸ÃÈ_LÂ

የታታሪና ቅን ዜጎችን ägS ZQ

xDR¯ lmmLkT የሚያበቃ

ምክንያት ሉሆን ግን ፈጽሞ

አይgÆም፡፡

በኢኮኖሚ አመራር ሊይ መዯረግ ያሇባቸው ሇውጦች

በሲቪሌ ሰርቪስ

መሌካም ውጤት ያሊቸው የኢኮኖሚ ፖሉሰዎችን፣ ህጎችንና ዴንጋጌዎችን ሇማቀዴና ሇመተግበር ከፍተኛ ጥራት ያሇው ሲቪሌ ሰርቪስ ያስፈሌጋሌ፡፡ ጥራት ያሇው ሲቪሌ ሰርቪስ ማህበራዊ አገሌግልቶችን ሇማስፋፋትና በተቀሊጠፈ ሁኔታ ሇማዲረስም አስፈሊጊ ነው፡፡ በአገራችን ጥራት ያሇው ሲቪሌ ሰርቪስ አስፈሊጊነት በተሇይ የዴህነት ቅነሳ ስትራቴጅ እና የምዕተ ዓመቱ የሌማት ግቦች ተግባራዊ መሆን ከጀመሩ ወዱህ እያዯገ መጥቷሌ፡፡ የሲቪሌ ሰርቪሱን ጥራት ሇማሳዯግ፣

የአሰራር ነጻነቱን ከፖሇቲካ ተጽዕኖና ጣሌቃ ገብነት ማሊቀቅ፣ ማበረታቻዎችን ማሻሻሌ፣ በብቃትና በውጤት ሊይ የተመሰረተ የቅጥርና የዯረጃ እዴገት ስርዓት መዘርጋት፣ ቅንነትን፣ ግሌጽነትንና ተጠያቂነትን ማበረታታት እንዱሁም የዘርፉን ሌዩ ሌዩ ክፍልች ማቀናጀት ያስፈሌጋሌ፡፡

በሲቪሌ ሰርቪስ ውስጥ ሉዯረጉ የሚችለ ማበረታቻዎች ከኃሊፊነት ስሜት፣ የሚመነጭ ሇውጥ የማምጣት ፍሊጎትንና ts¸nTN

mšTN እንዯሚያካትት መገንዘብ አስፈሊጊ ነው፡፡ የእኛን አገር በመሰለ ዴሃ አገሮች የሰራተኞችን ዯመወዝና ምንዲ በከፍተኛ መጠን ማሳዯግ በቅርብ ጊዜ የሚቻሌ ተግባር አይዯሇም፡፡ ስሇዚህም ላልች የማበረታቻ አይነቶችን በስፋት ሥራ ሊይ ማዋሌ አስፈሊጊ ነው፡፡

በዚህ ረገዴ፣ በቅርቡ በተጀመረው የሲቪሌ ሰርቪስ ማሻሻያ አንዲንዴ በጎ ጅምሮችን አመሊክቷሌ ፡፡ የኢኮኖሚ ጉዲዮች እውቀት ፖሉሲዎች የሚያስገኙት ውጤትና ዯረጃ የተመሰረቱባቸውን ቲዎሪዎች በጥሌቀት መርምሮ በመረዲት፣ በሰፊ የኢኮኖሚክስ እውቀትና ጥራት ባሇው መረጃ/ስታትስቲክስ መኖር ሊይ ይመሰረታሌ፡፡ ስሇዚህም፣ ፖሉሲ አውጭዎች ሇእውቀትና ሇስታትስቲክስ ተገቢውን ግምት ሉሰጡ ይገባቸዋሌ፡፡ ፖሉሲ አውጭዎች፣ ስታትስቲክስን የማጠናቀር አስቸጋሪነት፣ እንዱሁም እውቀት በብዙ ዴካም እንዯሚገኝ መገንዘብ ያስፈሌጋቸዋሌ፡፡ ከኤክስፐርቶች ጋር አዘውትሮ መወያየት ጠቃሚ መሆኑን መገንዘብ ይኖራባቸዋሌ፤

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 17 Ethiopian Economic Association

ከውይይቶቹ የሚገኙ ፍሬ ነገሮችንም በተግባራቸው ውስጥ ቢገሇገለባቸው መሌካም ይሆናሌ፡፡

የእውቀትን ኃያሌነት፣ ትርጉም ያሇው ሇውጥ ሇማምጣት ፖሇቲካዊ ፈቃዯኝነት UR s!qÂJ የሚያስገኘውን ፋይዲ የዩጋንዲን ሌምዴ እንዯ ምሳላ በመውሰዴ ማሳየት እወዲሇሁ፡፡ የሙሴቬኒ መንግስት ስሌጣን እንዯያዘ ሰሞን በዩጋንዲ የምንዛሬ ተመን ማሻሻያ ማዴረግ ግዳታ ነበር፡፡ ያኔም፤ የመንግስት ባሇስሌጣናት በኡጋንዲ ሽሌንግ ሊይ የምንዛሬ ተመን ቅነሳ ከተካሄዯ የኢኮኖሚ ግሽበት ይጨምራሌ የሚሌ ስጋት ነበራቸው፡፡ በዚህም ምክንያት b1986 yx#UNÄ >LNG yMN²¶

êU mNG|T =Mé nbR፡፡ ቢሆንም በሇውጡ አስፈሊጊ መሆንና አሇመሆን ሊይ ውይይቶችና ክርክሮች እንዲይካሄደ አሌከሇከሇም፡፡ የክርክሩን መቋጫ ሇማበጀት የረደት Stephen Morris የተባሇ አንዴ የፒ.ኤች.ዱ ተማሪ በ1989 ያዘጋጃቸው ሁሇት ጥናታዊ ጽሁፎች ነበሩ፡፡ ወዯ ዝርዝር ነጥቦች ሳንገባ፣ በአጭሩ የMorris ጥናታዊ ወረቀቶች፣ የምንዛሬ ማስተካከያውን ተገቢነትና የዋጋ ግሽበትም እንዯማያስከትሌ የሚያመሇክቱ ነበሩ፡፡ ይህ ጥናት፣ በመንግስት ባሇስሌጣናት ዘንዴ ተቀባይነት በማግኘቱ ፖሉሲው በስራ ሊይ ሉውሌ ችሎሌ፡፡ ከዚያን ዘመን ወዱህም፣ በኡጋንዲ በፖሉሲ አቀራረጽና በኢኮኖሚ ምርምር መካከሌ ያሇው ትስስር ይበሌጥ እየተጠናከረ መጥቷሌ፡፡ አንዴ ጸሃፊ እንዲሇውም፣ ‹‹የኡጋንዲ ሌምዴ፣ ከኤክስፐርቶችና ከአዋቂዎች ጠቃሚ ትምህርትና አዱስ ሀሳብ ሉገኝ እንዯሚችሌ ግሌጽ ምሳላ ነው››፡፡ ዛሬ ኡጋንዲ የምትገኝበትን ዯረጃ እንመሌከት፡፡ ሞሪስ ዛሬ በየሌ ዩኒቨርሲቲ የኢኮኖሚክስ

ፕሮፌሰርና አለ ከሚባለ ዝነኛ ወጣት የኢኮኖሚክስ ተዋሪዎች (theoretician) አንደ ነው፡፡

አንዲንዴ ማሳሰቢያዎች /ፕሮፖዛልች እስካሁን ባነሳሁዋቸው ነጥቦች ሊይ በመመርኮዝ መዯረግ አሇባቸው ብዬ በማምንባቸው አንዲንዴ ጉዲዮች ሊይ ማሳሰቢያዎችን አቀርባሇሁ፡፡ ነጻና ገሇሌተኛ አማካሪ ካውንስሌ መመስረት በፖሉሲ ጉዲዮች ሊይ መንግስትን የሚያማክርና በስራ ሊይ የዋለ ፖሉሲዎችያመጧቸውን ውጤቶች የሚመረምር nÚÂ glLt¾

የአማካሪዎች ቦርዴ ማቋቋም ጠቃሚ ነው፡፡ ቦርደ የሚኖሩት ኃሊፊነቶችና ተግባሮች ወዯፊት በጥናትና MKKR ሊይ ተመስርቶ ሉወሰን ይችሊሌ፡፡ በእኔ አስተያት፣ ከፖሇቲካ ጋር ያሇው ግንኙነት ሲቀር የዩናይትዴ ስቴትስን የኢኮኖሚ አማካሪዎች ካውንስሌ እንዯ ሞዳሌ ብንከተሌ መሌካም ነው፡፡

አንዲንድች ይህን አይነቱ ሁኔታ የመንግስትን ስሌጣን ያዲክማሌ ብሇው ሉገምቱ ÃúúL፡፡ ይህ አመሇካከት ስሇመንግስት ስሌጣን ካሇ ጠባብ ግንዛቤና በእውነተኛ ስሌጣንና (real authority) በይስሙሊ ስሌጣን (nominal authority) መካከሌ ያሇውን ሌዩነት ካሇማወቅ የሚመነጭ ነው፡፡ እውነተኛ ስሌጣን አንዴ አካሌ ላልች አካሊት የእርሱን እምነቶችና ተግባራት ወዯውና ፈቅዯው እንዱቀበለና እንዱፈጽሙ ሇማዴረግ ባሇው ብቃት ይገሇጣሌ፡፡ መንግስት የኢኮኖሚ አማካሪዎች ካውንስሌን በአግባቡ ሉገሇገሌበት ከቻሇ የዜጎችን

እምነቶች፣ አመሇካከቶችና ተግባራት ወዲሰበው አቅጣጫ መምራት YrÄêL፡፡ ይህንን ሇማዴረግም፣ የፖሉሲ ውሳኔዎች በርካታ ሌዩ ሌዩ ወገኖችን የሚያሳትፉ እንዱሆኑ (greater inclusiveness)፤ y¦úBÂ የመረጃ ሌውውጦችን ማሳዯግና ማጎሌበት፣ bXnß!HM x¥µYnT የተሻለ

ፖሉሲዎችን እና ያተገባበር ስሌቶችን ሇመንዯፍ xStê{å

YñrêL፡፡

የግምገማ ጥናት (Stock-taking)

ስሇ ኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚ እስካሁን ያሇውን እውቀት አሰባስቦ ሇማከማቸት መጣጣርና ሇዚህም ተግባር ቅዴሚያ መስጠት ላሊው ሉታሰብበት የሚገባ ብሄራዊ አጀንዲ ነው ብዬ አምናሇሁ፡፡ በዚህም ጥረት ውስጥ የመንግሰት መስሪያ ቤቶች፣ ምሁራን፣ የግለ ዘርፍ፣ ሲቪሌ ማህበራትንና ሇጋሽ ዴርጅቶች (donors) እንዱካተቱ ማዴረግ ጠቃሚ ውጤት ያስገኛሌ፡፡ በተሇይም፤

ባሇፉት 5 እስከ 10 ዓመታት ጊዜ ውስጥ በኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚ ሊይ የተሰሩ ምርምሮችን ማሰባበሰብ፣ መሰነዴና ከምርምር ዘዳዎች፣ ከትንታኔና ከጠቀሜታ አንጻር መገምገም፤

የኢትዮጵያን ኢኮኖሚያዊ ምርምር አቅምና ይዞታ ከሰው ኃይሌ፣ ከተቋማዊ አዯረጃጀት፣ ከመረጃ አቅርቦት፣ ከቅሌጥፍና እና ከፋይናንስ አቅም አንጻር መገምገም፤

አስፈሊጊ ነው፡፡ እነዚህን ተግባራት ሇማከናወንም የኢትዮጵያ ኢኮኖሚክስ ባሇሙያዎች ማህበርንና የኢትዮጵያ ሌማት ምርምር

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

x!÷ñ EÃêE xStÄdR yx!T×eà L¥T

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 18 Ethiopian Economic Association

ተቋምን (EDRI) ሌምድች መነሻ ማዴረግ ጠቃሚ ይሆናሌ፡፡ ይህን መሰለ ጥረት በተጓዲኝም፤

ዋና ዋና ገበያዎችንና ከገበያ ውጭ ያለ ተቋማዊ ስምምነቶችን (non-market institutional arrangements) ሇይቶ ሇማወቅና ምን ያህሌ ውጤታማ እንዯሆኑ ሇመገምገም፤

የሌማት እንቅስቃሴ ውጤት የሚወሰነው በነጠሊ ፖሉሲዎች ሳይሆን በሁለም ፖሉሲዎች ዴምር ውጤት በመሆኑ የመንግስትን ፖሉሲዎችና የማሻሻያ እርምጃዎችን በአንዴ ሊይ ሇመገምገም፤

የታሇመ መሆን ይኖርበታሌ፡፡ የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ከቅርብ ጊዜ ወዱህ ከነዚህ ተግባራት ጋር ተዛማጅነት ያሊቸው አንዲንዴ ሙከራዎችን በማዴረግ ሊይ ነው፡፡

ብሄራዊ ፋውንዳሽን መመስረት በአገሪቱ ውስጥ የሚሰሩ ምርምሮችን የሚያስተባብር፣ ሇምርምርና ሇተመራማሪዎች ማበረታቻ የሚውሌ የገንዘብ ዴጋፍ የሚያፈሊሌግ ራሱን ችል የሚንቀሳቀስ ብሄራዊ ፋውንዳሽን መመስረት አስፈሊጊ ነው፡፡ በዚህ አንጻር የኢትዮጵያ ሳይንስና ቴክኖልጂ ኮሚሽን ሌምዴ በመነሻነት ሉያገሇግሌ የሚችሌ ነው፡፡

ማጠቃሇያ ሇንግግሬ መቋጫ ይሆኑኝ ዘንዴ አንዴ ሁሇት ፍሬ ሃሳቦችን ሇመጨመር እወዲሇሁ፡፡ ከዚህ ቀዯም ፕሮፌሰር መስፍን

እንዲለት ሁለ እኔም፣ የሇውጥና የመሻሻሌ ፍሊጎት ከተማሩና ባሇጸጋ ከሆኑ ዜጎች መምጣት አሇበት ብዬ አምናሇሁ፡፡ ከታሪክ እንዯምንማረው በብዙ አገሮች የመሰረታዊ ማህበረ-ኢኮኖሚያዊ ሇውጥ ሃሳብ አመንጭዎችና ጀማሪዎች እነዚህ የማህበረሰብ ክፍልች ናቸው፡፡ በተሇይ የእኛን አገር በመሳሰለ ዴሃ አገሮች፣ እንዱህ አይነቱን የተወሳሰበ ጉዲይ ሇማሰብና ሇማሰሊሰሌ ምቾቱ፣ ችልታውና መሳሪያው ያሊቸው፣ እንዱሁም ማህበrsb# የሚሻሻሌባቸውን መንገድች ፈሌጎ የማግኘት የስነምግባርና የዜግነት ግዳታ የወዯቀባቸው፣ እውቀታዊ በሆነ መንገዴ ማሰብና መተግበር የሚችለ የህብረተሰብ ክፍልች የተማሩትን ባሇሃብቶች ናቸው፡፡ bt=¥¶ MNM XNµ*N ymššL

húB knz!H wgñC b!núM፣ W-@¬¥ lmçn# ytqrWN

yHBrtsB KFL ¥útF yGD

nW፡፡ Slz!H kz!H bmnúT ngN

l¥ššL y¸bJ Bÿ‰êE

SMMnT mgNÆT ("a national consensus to inverse in the future") አማራጭ የሇውም እሊሇሁ፡፡ የመረጥኩት የምርምር ርዕሰ ጉዲይ ራስን በማወቅ (self-discovery) ሊይ ያተኮረ ነው፡፡ ይህም ራስን የማወቅ ጥረት፣ በአንዴ በኩሌ፣ የአገራችንን ህዝብ ማህበራዊና ኢኮኖሚያዊ ታሪክ፣ ሌማድችና እምነቶች፣ የህዝቦችን ምኞታቸውንና ችልታቸውን፣ ተስፋ የሚሆኗቸውን ነገሮችና የሚያሰናክሎቸውን ችግሮች አጥንቶና መርምሮ መዴረስን፤ በላሊ በኩሌ እኛን ራሳችንን (የተማረውንና ባሇሃብቶችን) እንዯ ሰው ሌጅና እንዯ ኢትዮጵያዊ ማወቅን ያካትታሌ፡፡ ከዚህ አይነቱ ጥረት የሚወጣው ግኝት፣ ህብረተሰባችንን ሇመሇወጥ ቁሌፍ

ጉዲይ ነው ብዬ አምናሇሁ፡፡ በእርግጥ ሇንግግር ቀሊሌ ነው፡፡ ሆኖም ‹‹ህሌም አሇ ተብል ሳይተኛ አይታዯርምና›› የሇውጥን አስቸጋሪነት በመፍራት ከተግባር ሌናፈገፍግ አይገባም፡፡ ስሇዚህም፣ ሇችግሮቻችን መፍትሄ ሇማግኘት ያሇን ብቸኛና ትክክሇኛ አማራጭ፣ ማሰብ፣ መመርመር፣ መወያየትና መመካከር mwsNÂ mtGbR

W-@T byg!z@W mgMgMÂ

mššL ÃlbTN ¥ššL YHNNM

LÂdRG yMNClW X¾

x!T×eÃWÃN ብቻ ነን፡፡ ስሇህብረተሰባችን ችግሮች መፍትሄ ሇመሻትም ይሁን በጉዲዩ ሊይ ሇመምከርና ሇመወያየት ባሰብን ቁጥር፣ በቪዱዮው የተመሇከትነው ሌጅ ንግግር ይዘነጋን አይመስሇኝም፡፡ ብዙም መሌካም ነገሮች ሰራን ወይም ምንም ሳንሰራ እስካሁን ቀረን፣ እያንዲንዲችን እንዯ ግሇሰብ፣ ሁሊችንም ዯግሞ እንዯ ህብረተሰብ፣ ስሇዚያ ሌጅና ስሇትውሌደ ህይወት የተናጠሌና የጋራ ተጠያቂነት አሇብን፤ ስሇ ሌጆቻችንና ስሇ ሌጅ ሌጆቻችን እጣ ፈንታም ከእኛ በስተቀር ኃሊፊ ሉሆን የሚችሌ ክፍሌ አይኖርም፡፡ አመሰግናሇሁ!

êb! mr©ãCN (References) bXNGl!Z¾W {h#F §Y Ãg¾l#ÝÝ

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND ETHIOPIA‟S DEVELOPMENT

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 19 Ethiopian Economic Association

“But policy, as opposed to politics, is not (a) zero-sum (game). One of the hardest

tasks of economists is to explain this – a task made all the more difficult by much of

the political rhetoric.”

Joseph E. Stiglitz [Stiglitz (1998)]

I would like to begin by

congratulating and thanking the

Ethiopian Economic Association

(EEA) for organising the Vision

2020 Ethiopia discussion series. A

lot has been said about the nature

and usefulness of this forum and I

assume that these are by now well

understood.

I would also like to thank the EEA

for inviting me to speak at such a

forum. I feel greatly honoured.

The title of my talk is ―Economic

Governance and Ethiopia‘s

Development – Some Reflections‖.

It has three main parts. The first

part, after outlining my

understanding of the notion of

economic governance and its

determinants (at least for the

purpose of the talk), summarises the

state of well-being and economic

governance in Ethiopia. A statement

of my vision makes-up the second

section. The final section sketches

some of the things I believe should

happen in order to make that vision

a reality.

MMoottiivvaattiioonn

Before going any further, however,

let me briefly explain what

motivated me to tackle this issue

and the things that I take for

granted. I thought that would help

set the right perspective and tone for

the substance of my speech.

Recently, I watched a documentary

about Ethiopian children produced

by Save the Children UK. That

documentary had a profound impact

on me. I know many poor people; a

lot of my relatives are poor. I

myself come from a low middle-

income family and have a first-hand

experience of some of the economic

difficulties such families face. As

everyone else, I also have my share

of daily encounters with street

children. Until that day, however,

my interaction with poor children

was either person-to-person (usually

mediated by some cash transfer), or

in the abstract while doing research

on poverty and well-being. For the

first time, I watched children

themselves talk about aspects of

their own lives, their needs and

hopes, in short, their poverty

without directly asking for help.

Penetrating through my protective

shields of charity and abstraction,

their talk revealed to me what it

really means to be a poor child.

Being a parent, my thoughts

subsequently dwelt on my own

children and the children they will

hopefully have. I wondered whether

there are reasonable safeguards to

protect my grandchildren (if not my

own children) from being in the

same dismal state as the children in

the documentary. Since, broadly

speaking, the best guarantor of

decent opportunities is a dynamic

economy with sustainable growth,

and since such an economy is yet to

emerge in Ethiopia, I concluded that

there is really no reason why my

grandchildren will not face the same

predicament as the poor children in

the documentary.

I also realised, for the first time in a

really meaningful way, that how we

manage our economic affairs is

critical to the emergence of a

prosperous society in which such

poverty is very rare. Each and

every one of us should strive to

substantially enhance economic

management so as to ensure a better

EECCOONNOOMMIICC GGOOVVEERRNNAANNCCEE AANNDD EETTHHIIOOPPIIAA’’SS DDEEVVEELLOOPPMMEENNTT ––

SSOOMMEE RREEFFLLEECCTTIIOONNSS**

Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse

______________________ * A Talk Prepared for the Vision 2020 Ethiopia Series organized by the EEA, January 30, 2004.

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND ETHIOPIA‟S DEVELOPMENT

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 Ethiopian Economic Association

future for our children. What you

will hear today are some of my

reflections motivated by this

realisation. These reflections are

part of an ongoing thought process

and thus are subject to further

modifications as time goes.

AAiimmss

My main aim in this talk is to

motivate a systematic discussion

about economic governance,

focusing primarily on the ‗process‘

of policy selection – i.e. on how

economic management decisions

are arrived at. Clearly, this process

is political-economic and social in

nature. However, being an

economist, and recognising my

limitations thereof, I focus largely

on economic matters and highlight

the role of economics and the

economist. My hope is that what I

say will be sufficient to stimulate

some dialogue concerning the

opportunities and obligations facing

us as Ethiopians in the realm I

chose to talk about.

The area of discourse I have chosen

is rather wide in scope, thereby

necessitating some selective

treatment of themes. The themes I

dwell on are, I believe, critical, but

also reflect my knowledge and its

limitations.

In short I will reflect, mostly

informally and sometimes cursorily,

on some of the key aspects of

economic governance and provide

some, hopefully useful, suggestion

on the way forward.

At the end of the talk, I hope, rather

immodestly, that each one of you

will ask yourself the same questions

about the future of your children,

grandchildren, cousins and

nephews, as well as other members

their generations. I also hope, again

disregarding modesty, that, as a

consequence, you will embark on a

journey of thought and action.

AAssssuummppttiioonnss//PPrreessuummppttiioonnss

Being an economist, I will start by

stating my assumptions (or

presumptions).

I assume that the pattern of

economic governance, however

defined, reflects not only the

material resources of a country, but

also the norms and beliefs

associated with its citizens, their

concerns and aspirations, their

capabilities, their (current and past)

choices; and the various

institutional arrangements that have

evolved over time conditioned by

those resources, beliefs, norms and

choices. The line of causation also

goes in the other direction. The

pattern of economic governance

characterising a country influences

the beliefs, norms and choices of its

citizens and, ultimately, their well-

being.

I also assume that we Ethiopians

strive to improve our individual and

collective well-being in the context

of a common economic space. I

believe the following quote from

the current Ethiopian Constitution

captures that desire quiet well:

―Convinced that to live as

one economic community is

necessary in order to create

sustainable and mutually

supportive conditions for

ensuring respect for our

rights and freedoms and for

the collective promotion of

our interests; … Have

therefore adopted, … this

constitution as an instrument

that binds us in a mutual

commitment to fulfil the

objectives and the principles

set forth above.‖

Preamble to the Ethiopian

Constitution;

Then it follows that:

1. in one form or another, all

Ethiopians benefit from peace

and prosperity in Ethiopia;

2. in one form or another, all

Ethiopians can and should

contribute to the attainment of

these goals – in other words,

such contributions are not the

preserve and/or responsibility of

one or another select group; and

3. to a varying degree, all

Ethiopians are responsible for

the current and future well-being

outcomes in the country.

Finally, I assume that building a

well-functioning market economy is

a common vision. By that I mean

that most Ethiopians do not desire

their entire economic life to be run

administratively by some central

authority.

EEccoonnoommiicc GGoovveerrnnaannccee ––

AA CCoonncceeppttuuaall FFrraammeewwoorrkk

For my purpose I consider

economic governance to mean the

process of policy formulation, the

policies that are produced by that

process, and the pattern of policy

implementation. In other words, it

encompasses the policy

environment, and the related

administrative and legal structure,

under which an economy functions.

In this sense, macroeconomic

policies, microeconomic policies,

and fiscal policies; government

economic agencies, regulatory

policies and bodies; and business

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND ETHIOPIA‟S DEVELOPMENT

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 Ethiopian Economic Association

law and legal institutions all form

parts of a nation‘s economic

governance. Below I use economic

policy formulation and

implementation as my shorthand for

economic governance.

Broadly, speaking, economic policy

has three main components. Two of

these – goals and instruments – are

commonly explicitly stated, while

the third – economic ‗models‘ – are

usually implicit or even

unarticulated.

Goals represent the objectives or

targets that are to be attained or

promoted via policy intervention. In

poor countries like Ethiopia, the

standard set of goals include two

broad categories:

1. Macroeconomic stability:

which largely focus on certain

balances in the economy, in

particular, the balance of

payments, the government

accounts and the saving-

investment balance. The

important variables included

are the government budget

deficit, the money supply, the

components of aggregate

demand, the volume of credit,

interest rates, nominal wages

and profits, prices of

commodities, and the exchange

rate. 10

2. Growth and development:

which largely focus on factors

that determine the nature of the

development process in a

country. The key variables

include the structure and

growth of production,

employment, and investment.

Factors such as capital

accumulation, rural-urban

migration, labour force growth,

10Dervis, Kemal, Jaime de Melo, and

Sherman Robinson (1982). General

Equilibrium Models for Development Policy,

The World Bank, Washington D.C.

changes in productivity,

structure of trade, allocation of

investment, and changes in the

structure of demand. 11

The operational distinction between

the two sets is not always

straightforward, however. First,

stability and growth/development

are related, that the former is a

necessary condition for the latter

being a key aspect of that

relationship. Second, some

instruments of policy are aimed at

affecting, or do affect, both stability

and growth/development.

Instruments are the means

deployed to achieve policy goals or

targets. The specific instruments

available to a government partly

depend on the specific institutional

setting. In a market economy, these

may include: fiscal policy (types

and levels of taxes, level and

composition of government

expenditure); monetary policy

(money supply, reserve

requirements, open market

operations, discount window (rate),

interest rate regulation

(ceilings/floors)); exchange rate

policy; sectoral policies; and laws

and regulations.

Economic „models‟ summarise the

views of policy makers and/or their

advisers about how the economy

works (including its structure,

constraints, and possibilities) and

thus how policy instruments are

linked with policy targets. Such

views can be articulated in detail

with an underlying economic

theorising and empirical evidence.

They can also be implicit or sketchy

and with insufficient economic

theoretic and empirical content.

11 Dervis, Kemal, Jaime de Melo, and

Sherman Robinson (1982). General

Equilibrium Models for Development Policy,

The World Bank, Washington D.C.

Governments adopt and implement

a wide variety of economic policies.

On the one hand, such policies

represent the key means at the

disposal of governments in their

effort to achieve interrelated

economic objectives – primarily

maintain macroeconomic stability

and promote economic growth and

development. On the other hand,

these policies, and the process via

which they are selected, constitute

the pattern of economic governance

in a country, and as such, a key

element of the institutional

environment within which a

country‘s economy operates.

Consequently, government policies

form an integral part of an

economy, as well as a critical

determinant of its functioning and

evolution.12

The ultimate aim of economic

policy should be to improve the

well-being of citizens, either

directly, or indirectly by inducing

economic actors (individuals,

households, businesses) to modify

their choices in desirable ways. The

choices of these actors, and thus the

effectiveness of government

policies, depend not only on the

explicit characteristics of such

policies but also on these actors‘

perceptions about them.

In short, good or appropriate

government policies enhance the

economic performance of a country

and, hence, the well-being of its

citizens. The extent to which they

can do so depends on three main

attributes which makeup the quality

12

For a recent exploration of the impact of

policies and, more broadly, governance see

Ndulu and O‘Connell (1999), Collier and

Gunning (1999), and Kaufmann, Kraay, and

Ziodo-Lobat (1999, 2002). The first two

specifically analyze Africa.

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND ETHIOPIA‟S DEVELOPMENT

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 Ethiopian Economic Association

of policies:13

Policies need to be ‗correct‘,

i.e., policies should be

consistent with the ‗accepted‘

needs of the society and its

economy and the appropriate

economic role of the state, and

should be feasible relative to

the potentials of the economy

including the capabilities of the

government;

Policies need to be ‗credible‘,

i.e., policies should be

reasonably predictable and well

coordinated across the various

dimensions of their coverage;

and

Policies need to be ‗effective‘,

i.e., policies should be selected

and implemented in an efficient

manner and with a reasonable

degree of accountability and

transparency.

These attributes of policy

interventions are clearly

interdependent and constitute joint

indicators of the quality of

economic policy. Below, some of

these attributes are combined with

the elements of policy outlined

earlier to describe aspects of

economic governance in Ethiopia.

EEccoonnoommiicc GGoovveerrnnaannccee iinn

EEtthhiiooppiiaa

The First Five-Year Development

Plan of the Imperial regime, that

spanned the years 1957-196114,

represented the first genuinely

systematic expression of nation-

wide economic policy in modern

Ethiopia.15 That Plan was followed

by the second (1963-67) and third

(1968-1973) development plans. I

13

On correctness see Stiglitz (1996), Tanzi

(2000), and World Bank (1997). On

credibility see, for instance, Brunetti,

Kisunko, and Weder (1998). 14

All years are in Gregorian Calendar.

15 See Asfaw (1992) and Molla (1992).

will use the last one to briefly

illustrate the type of economic

policies pursued by the Imperial

regime.

The Third Five-Year Development

Plan was, perhaps, the most

sophisticated planning exercise

conducted up to that time. I, in fact,

believe that it even compares fairly

well with any of the plans or

strategies prepared since then in

terms of its logic, depth, and

coverage.16 Reading through the

Plan‘s document, I was also struck

by how much its analysis is still

valid. Indeed, its diagnosis and

language are so much like more

recent documents that I sometimes

forgot it was prepared 35 years ago.

I recommend it to anyone who

desires to see, among other things,

how slow our economic progress

has been in the interim.

Goals: The Third Five-Year Plan

identified the following main

objective:

1. to achieve a per capita income

growth of 3 percent per year;

2. to improve agriculture, the

mainstay of the national

economy and of the livelihood

of the majority of the Ethiopian

people, through an all-front,

more concerted encouragement

and assistance;

3. to extend economic and social

development from urban

centres to rural areas which not

only sustain the majority of the

Ethiopian people but also

provide most of the nation‘s

natural wealth.

These main goals were

disaggregated into very detailed

targets across a wide range of

sectors and activities.

16

Imperial Ethiopian Government (1968).

Third Five Year Development Plan, Addis

Ababa, Ethiopia.

Instruments: Towards achieving

these goals, the Plan envisaged a

variety of instruments including an

impressive investment plan mainly

in the form specific projects in

different sectors. Roughly half of

this investment plan was expected

to be financed by the private sector.

To encourage private investment,

the Plan proposed financial

incentives (such as tax exemption)

the details of which were to be

included in an Investment Law,

which in turn, were to be

administered by an Investment

Committee and an Investment

Promotion Office (located within

the then Ministry of Commerce and

Industry). As for public investment,

the Plan develops annual plans

which laid the basis for the

preparation of the annual

government budget.

Economic „models‟: Essential

premises of the Third Five-Year

Plan were:

1. agricultural development was a

priority since the Ethiopian

economy was predominantly

agrarian (by the way, the

figures cited about the role of

agriculture were roughly the

same as the ones we cite

today);

2. industrial development was

indispensable and the preferred

strategy to achieve it was

import substitution (though the

Plan also envisaged expansion

in exports);

3. education and skills formation

associated with it (in current

terminology human capital)

were critical for the country‘s

development.

All these were broadly consistent

with development thinking of the

period.

It is also interesting to observe the

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concern displayed by the planners

of the day for the ‗correctness‘

‗credibility‘ and ‗effectiveness‘ of

their policies. They explicitly

1. recognised the need to base the

planning exercise on firm

knowledge about the economy.

They fully realised the

indispensability of good quality

statistics, the shortcomings of

the data they had, and the need

to further strengthen the

Central Statistical Office;

2. acknowledged the institutional

needs of the Plan and envisaged

a corresponding reform process

including coordination across

government agencies;

3. appreciated the need for public

understanding and support if

the Plan were to succeed. I

quote from the Preface of the

Plan document:

―To succeed, a plan requires

the solid support of the

population at large. The

primary condition for this

support is an understanding

by the people of what the

plan is: its goals, its policies,

and, above all, its relevance

to their daily life. Such an

understanding requires, in

turn, full dissemination of the

plan throughout the Empire

in a format that is intelligible

to the great masses of the

people.‖

4. emphasised the need to use

resources efficiently.

Despite these qualities most experts

agree that the Third Five Year Plan

did not succeed. A number of

domestic and international reasons

explain this failure. The Plan

suffered from a number of, rather

technical, weaknesses. To mention

two key ones:

1. It was not based on a

systematic and empirical

analysis of the inter-linkages

between different sectors of the

Ethiopian economy and the

constraints associated with

them.

2. The database underlying the

Plan was rather weak and partly

explains why empirical analysis

was limited to descriptive

statistics.

Absence of political reform and

insufficient attention to land reform

were two more important

explanations, however. The Plan

was a product of an autocratic

regime with little accountability and

transparency. Indeed, the pressures

for political reform and land reform

ultimately led to the downfall of the

regime.

The Imperial regime was succeeded

by the Derg regime. The Derg

regime was characterised by brutal

political repression and centralised

administrative control over the

economy. Most manufacturing

enterprises, almost all big hotels, all

financial institutions, all

commercial farms, a lot of

residential buildings, and all lands

were nationalised. Central planning

was introduced first in the form of

what were referred to as National

Revolutionary Development

Campaigns or Zemecha (1978-

1984) and subsequently in the form

of a Ten-Year Perspective Plan

(1984 onwards). I will use the latter

to illustrate the form of economic

governance during the period.17

Goals: The Derg regime aspired to

17

Provisional Military Government of

Socialist Ethiopia (1984). Ten-Year

Perspective Plan, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

ultimately build a socialist

economy. Within this broad aim, a

number of specific targets were also

set by the Ten-Year Perspective

Plan, including:

1. to achieve an average per capita

income growth of 3.5% per

year with corresponding growth

targets for agriculture (4.3%),

industry (10.8%), and services

(6.9%);

2. to improve food security and

raise agricultural productivity

through cooperativisation and

expansion of irrigated farming;

3. to increase the share of industry

to a quarter of national output,

mainly through import

substitution.

Instruments: Central planning was

the preferred instrument of the Derg

regime. Nationalised enterprises,

which meant almost the entire

modern sector, were directly run by

the central government through

ministries or agencies established

for the purpose. Partly to discourage

the private sector, other aspects of

economic life were also subject to

extensive controls. These include:

barriers to the movement of

people and goods enforced

through travel paper

requirements and numerous

check points;

prohibitive tariff rates,

extensive quota restrictions,

and long and complicated

licensing procedures;

complete ban on the sell and

purchase of labour in

agriculture;

compulsory grain delivery (or

‗quota‘) system under which

farm households were forced to

sell a part of their produce to

the government at prices fixed

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below those ruling in the ‗free‘

market; and

administrative distribution (or

rationing) of goods.

Apart from highly restricting

individual rights and considerably

eroding incentives for legitimate

private economic activity, these

controls resulted in high and

unwarranted administrative costs,

considerable corruption, and

smuggling. These costs were

ultimately incurred by society in the

form of slow growth and increased

poverty.

Economic ‘models’: The Ten-

Year Perspective Plan reflected

the socialist orientation of the

government of the day, and the

corresponding pattern of

centralised decision-making and

resource control it advocated.

Private property and the private

sector were considered

exploitative and actively

discouraged. Despite these, the

Ten-Year Perspective Plan was

based on assessments that were

remarkably similar to the five-

year plans of the Imperial era.

These include:

1. agriculture, as the largest

contributor to national

output and employment,

should be given priority;

2. industrialisation, being

critical for development,

should be promoted mainly

through import substitution;

It is not very difficult to pass

judgement on the pattern of

economic governance practiced

during the Derg regime. The dismal

state of the Ethiopian economy at

the end of the period spoke for

itself. To some extent, we are still

constrained by the legacy of that

regime.

A large number of lessons need to

be learnt from that disastrous

episode in Ethiopian history. I will

mention only two that are most

relevant to my theme. The period

clearly showed that:

economic policies that are not

consistent with individual

incentives are unlikely to bring

about enduring improvements;

and

centralised control and

repression ultimately fail.

To be sure, both rake havoc to

society and its members. In our

case, such policies and brutal

political repression generated

disastrous economic outcomes and

led to civil conflict. As a

consequence the Derg regime

collapsed in 1991 and the Ethiopian

People‘s Revolutionary Democratic

Front (EPRDF) assumed power.

Since 1992 the EPRDF government

has focused on reorienting the

economy through market reforms,

including a structural adjustment

program. As a result the state‘s

direct role in economic activity has

declined. Tariffs have been cut,

quota constraints relaxed, licensing

procedures simplified, foreign

exchange controls eased,

compulsory cooperative

membership and grain delivery

discontinued, and privatisation

begun, private banks authorised,

and interest rates decontrolled and

an inter-bank money market

introduced.

These reforms, combined with

peace and favourable weather

conditions for most of the past

decade, produced economic

recovery with faster average

growth. The pace of economic

growth has slowed down

considerably in more recent years

(indeed national output fell in

2002/2003), partly due to war,

recurrent drought and the fall in

international coffee prices. I also

suspect that the economy might

have exhausted the potential for

recovery and growth induced by the

reforms implemented so far.18

The government has also adopted

agricultural development-led

industrialization as a central plank

of its development programme, with

a focus on productivity growth on

small farms and labour-intensive

industrialization. An extensive

extension program is being

implemented as the preferred means

of increasing agricultural

productivity.

Until recently, one important

departure from the past was the

abandonment of planning, at least as

an explicit mode of economic

policy formulation and

implementation. However,

beginning 2002 the Ethiopian

government has adopted a

development strategy centred on the

principal goal of poverty reduction.

This strategy is officially known as

Sustainable Development and

Poverty Reduction Program.

This Program is a detailed statement

of Ethiopia economic problems and

the solutions thereof. Its main aims

are summarised in the following

paragraph:

18

See Easterly (2002) for some evidence on

the growth impact of policy reforms and the

limits thereof.

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―Ethiopia's development

strategy seeks to promote

rapid broad-based and

equitable growth by focusing

on rural development and

improvement in physical and

human capital, and

deepening the devolution

process to empower the

people and expand the

choices and control that

people have over their

lives.‖

In line with this Program, the

government has launched deeper

fiscal decentralisation, judicial and

civil service reform, and public

sector capacity building. All of

these are arguably good beginnings

at institution building. Being too

recent, however, to what extent they

will succeed remains to be seen.

One thing is certain, however. Their

success or failure ultimately

depends on whether they succeed in

modifying the beliefs and actions of

individual economic actors through

the right ‗incentives‘ broadly

defined.

TThhee SSttaattee ooff tthhee EEtthhiiooppiiaann

EEccoonnoommyy

The above reflects that the

Ethiopian economy, and its society,

have experienced different modes of

economic governance over the last

40 years or so. So what difference

did all these make - as the saying

goes ‗the proof of the pudding is in

the eating‘. Are their substantial

differences in the well-being of

Ethiopians compared to 40 years

ago?

Let us start with successes.

Considerable progress has been

made, and is being made, in

increasing access to education and

health during the period. In contrast,

food security and nutrition levels

seem to have declined over the

years.

Perhaps the best summary measure

progress is the level of output per

worker. The table below records the

pattern of change in output per

worker over the period in question.

The table clearly shows that we

have made little headway in raising

productivity and thus improving

well-being. This failure is clearly

illustrated by Ethiopia‘s:

a. dependence on rain-fed and

traditional-technology based

agriculture;

b. inadequate human capital;

c. low capital stock - with

Africa‘s lowest stock of capital

per worker in 2000;

d. undeveloped infrastructure that

is improving but need to get a

lot better;

e. weak institutions including

deficiencies in the civil service,

judiciary, corruption, and

property rights (for instance,

bureaucratic quality recently

received a score of 1 out of a

maximum possible score of 4).

IImmpplliiccaattiioonnss

The evidence points to the fact that,

as a society, we have so far failed to

achieve sustained growth and

development. It suggests that we

were not making the right choices in

terms of the pattern and level of

investments, and, partly due to this,

that we have yet to build the

appropriate institutions. Our failure

is likely to be related to many

factors. Shocks of one sort or

another (drought, war, international

price fluctuations) and their long-

term effects as well as our historical

legacy are very serious problems.

Below I focus on another set of

explanatory factors, namely, aspects

of economic governance. I do so

because that is the topic of my talk.

More importantly, however, my

focus is motivated by the belief that

from among the variety of

constraints we face these aspects are

the ones we have most control over

and thus with which we can make

headway at some speed.

I like to emphasise that the concerns

I raise do not relate to intentions.

Rather I focus on why even well-

intentioned government policies can

and do fail to achieve their

objectives and what can be done

about that.

SSoouurrcceess ooff PPoolliiccyy FFaaiilluurreess

Correctness

Correct policies are those which:

are consistent with the ‗needs‘ of

the society and its economy;

are consistent with the

appropriate economic role of the

state; and

are feasible relative to the

potentials of the economy

including the capabilities of the

government.

How do these requirements of

correctness are satisfied?

First, the political process that

selects governments need to be

genuinely democratic such that

elections reveal the broad

preferences of society. Second,

knowledge about the ‗needs‘ of

society, the potentials and

constraints of the economy, and the

capacities of the government has to

be systematically generated and

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continually upgraded. Third, mainly

based on this knowledge, feasible

priorities have to be debated and

agreed upon.

One example illustrates my point. It

is rather common to hear officials

say that ‗The policy is good but its

implementation is bad.‘ ‗This

dichotomy between the formulation

and the implementation of a policy

is usually false.‘ If a policy is

deemed feasible, then it must have

been designed on the basis of

realistic assumptions regarding the

relevant circumstances including

the expected response of economic

actors. ‗Difficulties regarding

implementation should arise only

from unanticipated exogenous

shocks.‘ If implementation

difficulties are substantial and

frequent, it is wise to recheck the

judgements made regarding the

appropriateness and/or feasibility of

the policy in question.

I am convinced that a lot of policy

failures are related to our rather

limited knowledge of the history

and workings of our society and

economy. In addition, even existing

knowledge is scattered and difficult

to access, and thus, not effectively

deployed.

Credibility

Credible policies are those which

are reasonably predictable and well

coordinated (or consistent) across

the various dimensions of their

coverage

The problem of credibility arises

from the inability of the state to

irrevocably commit itself to a

course of action. This inability is

inherent in the nature of the state (or

government). The ‗government is

the primary enforcer of contracts. It

uses its monopoly on the legal use

of force to create the possibility of

private commitment. There is no

one, however, whose job it is to

guard the guardian. The government

cannot make commitments because

it always has the possibility of

changing its mind, and earlier

‗‗agreements‘‘ cannot be enforced.‘

As a consequence, it is always

necessary for the government to

convince economic actors that

reversals of policy decisions are

reasonably unlikely.

One common, and proven, way of

doing so is to establish a variety of

properly functioning credibility-

enhancing mechanisms. Checks and

balances built into constitutions are

the best example of such

mechanisms. Strong civil society is

another. Such institutions raise the

costs of some policy reversals such

that they become unlikely. Building

a good reputation in the relevant

matters is another important way of

gaining and sustaining credibility.

Effective coordination across

different parts and levels of

government is also a key tool for

enhancing credibility since it will

reduce the possibility of

inconsistent policy initiatives from

within the same government and at

the same time. Clear demarcation of

jurisdiction over different policy

areas or issues is essential for such

coordination.

Secrecy, or lack of openness and

transparency, in the policy making

process aggravates the credibility

problem. First, it hinders the

‗consensus-building process and

makes it more likely that outcomes

will lead to a greater divergence

between winners and losers.‘

Second, ‗by making information

scarce, it contributes both to the

perception and reality of

asymmetrical information, and puts

into play a dynamic which is more

likely to lead to biased and

unrealistic information.‘ Openness,

transparency, and consensus-

building can help reduce the

credibility problem.

Increased reliance on consensus in

the policy making process has a

number of advantages. First,

reaching consensus is a desirable

outcome in its own right, and doing

so in a democratic and transparent

way is a process that should be

cherished in its own right. Second,

consensus-building promotes open

dialogue aimed at achieving better-

designed policies rather scoring

victories in adversarial debate.

Third, if done systematically, fairly,

and regularly, it leads to the

emergence of commonly shared

beliefs and interests. Fourth,

dialogue towards a consensus can

also serve as an information-

gathering device on needs, interests,

and concerns, and as such it helps to

overcome some of the information

problems governments face in

formulating and implementing

policies. Therefore, the culture of

building consensus around policy

packages can enhance their

correctness and credibility.

Credibility matters because; unless

economic actors are convinced that

policies are irreversible (unless

circumstances clearly warrant

change) they would not modify

their beliefs and actions in a manner

consistent with the policies. And,

unless they do so, those policies

will not succeed in achieving their

objectives. In some sense policies

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are like the horse in the Amharic

saying ‗the horse takes you to the

battle field, but it will not fight.‘ A

government may build modern

schools and health clinics. Success,

however, requires that families send

their children to those schools or

visit those clinics when sick instead

of some ‗traditional‘ substitute they

are used to. This shift will occur not

only if and when these families are

convinced that doing so is good for

them, but also if and when they are

convinced that the new facilities are

reasonably long-lasting (the schools

and clinics will continue to operate).

Coming to the case of Ethiopia, I

suspect that credibility problems

may partly explain lacklustre

responses to some policy initiatives.

I will come back to some of these

later on. Let me now describe

aspects of my vision.

MMyy VViissiioonn

Like everyone else who spoke

before me, I like to see a peaceful,

pluralistic, and prosperous Ethiopia

in 2020. Believing that a key

characteristic and foundation of

such a society is its pattern of

economic governance, I also like to

see an open, flexible, accountable,

and transparent system of policy

formulation and implementation.

More specifically, I would like to

see an environment in which:

1. justifying policy actions and

taking responsibility thereof are

institutionalised and standard;

2. policy decisions and their

rationale, the relevant data and

other information, as well as

the terms of accountability, are

provided to the public in a

comprehensive, accessible, and

timely manner.

3. rational and constructive

dialogue on economic policy is

institutionalised and regular.

Such dialogue should allow

participation by all stakeholders

in different forms; should occur

before and after the adoption of

policies; and should entertain

proposals from all quarters. The

recently established National

Private-Public Forum is a good

start.

4. economic knowledge and

analysis are valued, effectively

deployed, and continually

upgraded through efficient

investments;

5. capacity to provide early

warning of adverse economic

shocks, and thus that of

appropriately responding to

them, is well-developed.

EElleemmeennttss ooff WWhhaatt sshhoouulldd bbee

DDoonnee

The realisation of the vision I

outlined may require many things. I

believe, however, that changes in

two related areas are critical. These

areas are elements of the way we

manage our economic affairs and,

the latter‘s key determinants, our

norms and beliefs (that is

ourselves). I describe these below,

in an order that does not necessarily

reflect their relative importance.

Changes in norms and

beliefs or perspectives

Self-interest

The legitimate pursuit of self-

interest – be it in business, in the

civil service, in academia, or in any

other legal enterprise – should be

appreciated and encouraged. I bring

this up because we seem to be

somehow displeased about and

frown upon individual success.

Somebody (I forgot who, though I

remember it is a he) described his

own society as follows: ―Our

society dislikes two things most –

success and failure.‖ I think that our

society suffers from the same

prejudice. The end-result of such

prejudice is glorified mediocrity.

In saying so, I am not trying to

champion Lassiez Faire. I fully

recognise the need for collective

action as well as the dangers that

exclusive and unregulated pursuit of

individual gain poses to society.

The trick is to build an environment

within which the incentives for the

legitimate pursuit of self-interest are

in place, flexible mechanisms for

encouraging the coincidence of

individual and common interests are

designed, and misdemeanours are

appropriately discouraged and

punished. Otherwise, progress is

quiet unlikely.

This of course is easier said than

done. However, the only way we

can go forward is by thinking about

the problems, discussing the merits

of alternative solutions,

experimenting, and gradually

developing such a system.

Government

We have to revise our, usually

implicit, belief in the unlimited

powers of the state. The required

revision, I believe, has two parts.

Simply put the government is too

big and too small at the same time.

Seen from the perspective of a

single individual, the government is

too big. Hence, the value we give to

individual rights, particularly civil

rights, should be much higher than

they appear to get now.

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Seen from the perspective of the

requirements of socio-economic

advancement needed in this

country, the government is too

small. To illustrate this rather

crudely, consider government

expenditure. In 2002 the Ethiopian

government spent about 20 Billion

Birr on the current and future needs

of a country with 68 million people.

A crudely analogous situation is:

one person with an annual income

of 30000 Birr managing a

household of one hundred people

providing for their education,

health, and security needs during

the year and invest some money for

future needs as well. It is very likely

that some needs of some people will

not be met.

My point is that it is not easy to

manage a poor economy such as

ours (think of how much effort is

required to manage our own

households). I am not trying to

excuse inefficiency and abuse – I

simply want to emphasise that we

have to adjust our expectations

about what the government can do.

What does that imply?

For policy makers this means that:

They need to genuinely realise that

their power emanates from society

via elections or appointments; that it

is always power temporarily

delegated to them; and, most

importantly, that they are human

beings with all the fallibility

which that entails. These are very

obvious and are usually proclaimed

by policy makers. I mention them

because our history makes me

wonder how deeply rooted these

beliefs are in our society.

They also need to fully appreciate

the limits to the impact of their

policies in terms of rapidly

changing our society‘s

circumstances in and by themselves.

Among other benefits, this would at

least minimise the frustration that

may be caused by the implicit but

unwarranted belief in the great

powers of the state and its policies.

At the same time, policy makers

should accept that the success of

their policies is highly dependent on

the responses of ‗citizens‘ to those

policies, which in turn are

motivated by ‗beliefs‘ and

incentives.

For citizens the main implication is

that, each of us should do his or her

bit by taking our place in society

seriously, otherwise things will not

improve. We have to pay taxes,

engage in constructive dialogue,

perform our respective tasks with

integrity, and genuinely appreciate

the difficulties of policy-makers.

Responsibility

I think we suffer from what I may

call the ‗blame culture‘ (may be

somebody else used this phrase

before, but I do not remember). It is

always something or someone else

which is responsible for our

difficulties. It is ‗society at large‘,

‗culture‘, ‗the weather‘, ‗wrong

policies‘, ‗the government‘, ‗greedy

businessmen‘, ‗myopic peasants‘,

‗globalisation‘, ‗superiors‘, the list

goes on. It is almost never ‗I‘ or

‗we‘. I am not denying that many

of these may be real problems with

considerable impact. What I am

objecting to is the manner in which

they are used to side-step

responsibility, and thus prevent

speedier solution to problems.

It is really amazing how widespread

this is. It ranges from mundane

household affairs to weighty public

discussions. Let me give you a

rather light-hearted example from

my daily life. Whenever something

goes wrong in our household, for

instance one of my books is

misplaced, it is rather difficult to

establish who is responsible. When

asked everyone answers automatically

‗It was not I‘, sometimes even

before knowing what he or she is

being asked about. The question is

completed or repeated and after a

while somebody says ‗Oh that, it

was I‘. This is so common that it

has become a kind of game we play.

Of course this may be because my

wife and I are bad household

managers, though I doubt it very

much. The main reason, I strongly

suspect, is this mindset to pass on

responsibility. Take another, more

serious, example. How frequently

have you got the answer ‗This is

how we work‘ or ‗It is the rules or

guidelines‘ when you ask why you

are supposed to meet some

(sometimes ridiculous) requirement

to get what you wanted. By the

way, this can happen both in public

offices as well as private

enterprises. For some reason we

tend to confuse ‗how‘ with ‗why‘ or

become worried and defensive

when asked ‗why‘ questions.

We need to develop a sense of

purpose with well-thought out aims

and instruments. Combined with

this we should develop a sense of

responsibility. Obviously, we live

within a collective, and as a result

we benefit from and are constrained

by that collective. Nevertheless, the

‗collective‘ – be it a society, a

community, or a specific group –

exists within and through each of

us. Hence, we have considerable

freedom to act independently and,

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with some effort, change ourselves

and our collective for the better.

With that individual freedom comes

individual responsibility.

Patriotism

For me patriotism is strong

emotional link with one‘s society

represented by positive beliefs

about that society and expressed in

actions which enhance the welfare

of its members. I also believe that

patriotism starts at home – with

seriousness of one‘s purpose, its

pursuit in a legitimate manner, as

well as real care and concern about

the current and future well-being of

one‘s family, particularly children.

It then extends, in one form or

another, to the rest of society.

Who is a patriot according to this

understanding? Obviously, high on

the list are people (usually soldiers)

who pay the ultimate sacrifice and

fall on the battlefield in defence of

their society. Fortunately the

situations that demand such

sacrifices are rare and hopefully

getting even rarer. The list of

patriots should include many others,

as well. What about the

businessmen who reinvest their

profits within the country instead of

sending it abroad; and those who

return after studying abroad. What

about those who are grappling with

the country‘s problems in their

various capacities – the teacher who

strives to educate within inadequate

schools, the civil servant who

performs his/her duties with

integrity and to the best of his/her

abilities although the financial

returns for doing so are not high,

individuals who are fighting to

combat HIV/AIDS (particularly

those who have already tested

positive) and other illnesses;

scientists of one sort or another

researching and inventing; and

farmers trying to improve their lot.

The list goes on. To me all these are

patriots and need to be

acknowledged as such.

In contrast, thousands are trying to

leave the country as evidenced by

the roaring business DV centres had

during the last months of 2003. I

know of established people who

applied and got DV. Do not get me

wrong! I do not question these

persons‘ right to do as they did and

respect their choices. My point is

that we have to appreciate the

choices made by those staying or

coming back. Those who may claim

that these groups have no other

choice are insulting not only others

but also themselves that the country

has nothing to offer for people with

options. One wonders why they

themselves are still living in this

country – presumably for some

altruistic reasons.

Obviously, the patriots I mentioned,

like all patriots, have recognisable

shortcomings. These shortcomings

should be identified and, if possible,

corrected. However, that should not

be an excuse for not acknowledging

their good choices and deeds.

CChhaannggeess iinn AAssppeeccttss ooff

EEccoonnoommiicc MMaannaaggeemmeenntt

Civil service

A high-quality civil service is vital

to the designing of good economic

policies, including rules and

regulations, and their effective

implementation. It is also critical to

the efficient provision of social

services to the public. This

importance has increased further

with the onset of the PRSP process

and the centrality of the Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs).

Upgrading the quality of the civil

service requires increasing its

autonomy from the political

sphere and from supervised

entities (independence). It also

demands improving incentives;

instituting meritocratic recruitment

and promotion; enhancing integrity,

transparency, accountability, and

better coordination within the civil

service.

In this regard it is important to

understand incentives in the civil

service broadly to include the

perception of making a difference

emanating from a sense of duty,

professional independence, as well

as power and influence. In a poor

country like ours it may not be

possible to substantially increase

wages and salaries in the short-run.

As a result these other types of

incentives need to be employed

more widely and more effectively.

Some progress seems to be

occurring in this direction through

the recently initiated civil service

reform.

Economic knowledge

The effectiveness of policies rises

with the extent to which they are

based on systematic explorations

and use of the relevant body of

economic knowledge and the best

statistics available. As a result

policy makers need to be more

appreciative of the benefits of such

knowledge and statistics. They

should also better realise the

difficulties in generating both and

acquiring the former. Similarly,

they need to be more prepared to

regularly interact with experts and

seriously consider the outcomes of

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND ETHIOPIA‟S DEVELOPMENT

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 Ethiopian Economic Association

this interaction in making their

decisions.

I like to relate a story from

Uganda‘s experience to highlight

the power of knowledge,

particularly when it is combined

with the political will to make a

difference. After coming to power,

the Museveni government, perhaps

the president himself, feared that

devaluation of the Ugandan shilling

would increase inflation. As a result

it actually revalued the currency in

1986. But it allowed debate on the

issue to continue. What helped to

resolve the Ugandan debate was a

pair of papers written for the

Permanent secretary in 1989 by

Stephen Morris, then a young PhD

student who had been attached to

the Planning Ministry on a British

government fellowship. Without

going into details, let me say that

Morris showed that devaluation was

the correct policy. More

importantly, his papers convinced

the relevant policy makers, and the

policy was adopted. This link

between economic research and

policy making has since become

very strong in Uganda. As someone

concluded ‗the Ugandan story, …

gives as clear an example of

learning and innovation by a

protected technocracy as one can

find‘. Look where Uganda is

today!! By the way Stephen Morris

is now a full professor of economics

at Yale University and one of the

best young economic theoreticians

around.

Some specific proposals

Let me make some specific proposals.

Independent advisory council

Establish an independent advisory

council, which advises the

government on key policy matters,

and also assess the impact of

policies that are adopted. The exact

form and responsibilities should be

worked out in a systematic manner.

My preferred model is the council

of economic advisers in the US but

without the political ties of that

council.

Some may worry that such

arrangements may dilute the

authority of the government. This

however reflects a narrow

understanding of authority as

‗formal‘ or ‗nominal‘ rather than

‗real‘. Real authority is measured by

the effectiveness of an agent to

influence the relevant beliefs and

actions of other agents. Indeed,

efficient use of such arrangements

will enhance the effectiveness of the

government to nudge beliefs and

actions of citizens in the desired

direction. It does so by widening the

‗constituency‘ of policy decisions

through greater inclusiveness, better

communication, and improved

design and implementation.

National research foundation

Establish an autonomous national

research foundation which

coordinates research in the country,

solicit funds, and award grants. The

experience of the Ethiopian Science

and Technology Commission could

be built upon, in this regard.

Stock-taking

Launch a national effort in

economic knowledge stock-taking

and priority-setting. This effort

should involve government

agencies, academics, the private

sector, civil society organisations

and donors. The aim of such an

effort would be to reach ―... the

stage at which we know that we do

not know‖ via systematic:

cataloguing and review of

economic research conducted

about Ethiopia in the last 5-10

years (quality of methodology

and analysis, relevance,

effectiveness); and

review of economic research

capacity in Ethiopia

(manpower, institutional set-up,

data, other resources,

efficiency, funding).

It would be useful to build on the

experiences of EDRI, EEA, and

EARO. Subsequently, or in parallel,

the effort should initiate studies

aimed at:

identifying the type of

dominant market and non-

market institutional

arrangements and assess how

well they are functioning; and

assessing government policies

(including reform measures) as

a package, since it is not only

individual ingredients but also,

perhaps more importantly, the

combination of these

ingredients which determine

outcomes

There are some recent signs that the

Ethiopian government may be

thinking along similar lines.

CCoonncclluussiioonn

Let me close with a couple of

remarks.

I believe, like Professor Mesfin

before me, that the initiative should

come, and usually does come from,

the educated and the relatively rich

citizens of Ethiopia. This is so

because they are the only groups in

a poor society like ours that have

the necessary degree of comfort and

the requisite analytical tools, and

hence the responsibility, to

systematically reason and act.

Though the initiative comes from

these groups, enduring success

occurs only through and with the

participation of the rest of society.

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE AND ETHIOPIA‟S DEVELOPMENT

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 Ethiopian Economic Association

Hence, on the basis of such

initiative, let us build ―a national

consensus to invest in the future.‖

In the spirit of the responsibility

described above, I have made some

specific proposals including a

research agenda. To a large extent

the research agenda I outlined

envisages a journey of self-

discovery – the systematic

discovery of our country‘s people

(their history, particularly economic

history; their norms and beliefs;

their aspirations and potentials; and

the incentives and constraints they

face) and ourselves (the educated

and the well-off) as human beings

and as Ethiopians. That discovery, I

believe is a key ingredient of the

effort to transform our society.

This, of course, is easier said than

done. However, as the Amharic

saying goes ‗Fear of dreams will not

stop us from sleeping.‘ The only

option we have is to continue to

think, investigate, constructively

discuss, and come up with some

workable solutions – a process that

needs to be continuous, dynamic,

and consonant with the changing

world we live in. No one else,

however well-intentioned, can do

this for us. We have to do it

ourselves.

Whenever each of us think about

our society‘s problems, whatever

possible solutions we come up with,

and whatever decisions we make,

let us remember the dreams of the

poor boy in the video clip we

watched. Whatever we do or do not

do, we are, individually and

collectively, accountable to him and

his generation – that is our children

and grandchildren.

Thank you.

RReeffeerreenncceess

Brunetti, Aymo, Gregory Kisunko,

and Beatrice Weder (1998).

―Credibility of Rules and

Economic Growth: Evidence

from a Worldwide Survey of

the Private Sector,‖ World

Bank Economic Review, Vol.

12, No. 3: 353–84.

Campos, Jose Edgardo, and Hadi

Salehi Esfahani (2000).

―Credible Commitment and

Success with Public Enterprise

Reform,‖ World Development,

Vol. 28, No. 2: 221-243.

Collier, Paul and Jan Willem

Gunning (1999). ―Explaining

African Economic

Performance,‖ Journal of

Economic Literature, Vol.

XXXVII: 64–111.

Dervis, Kemal, Jaime de Melo, and

Sherman Robinson (1982).

General Equilibrium Models

for Development Policy, The

World Bank, Washington D.C.

Easterly, William and Ross Levine.

(2001) ―It‘s Not Factor

Accumulation: Stylized Facts

and Growth Models,‖ World

Bank Economic Review.

______, (2003). ―Tropics, Germs,

and Crops: How Endowments

Influence Economic

Development,‖ Journal of

Economic Growth, 50, 1.

Imperial Ethiopian Government

(1968). Third Five Year

Development Plan, Addis

Ababa, Ethiopia.

Kaufmann, D., A. Kraay, and P.

Ziodo-Lobat (1999).

―Governance Matters,‖ Policy

Research Working Paper No.

2196, The World Bank.

______, (2002). ―Governance

Matters II: Updated Indicators

for 2000/01,‖ The World Bank,

mimeo.

Kaufmann, D., A. Kraay, and M.

Mastruzzi (2003). ―Governance

Matters III: Governance

Indicators for 1996-2002,‖ The

World Bank, mimeo.

Ndulu, Benno J., and Stephen A.

O‘Connell (1999).

―Governance and Growth in

Sub-Saharan Africa,‖ Journal

of Economic Perspectives,

Volume 13, Number 3: 41–66.

Reinikka, Ritva, and Paul Collier,

eds (2001). Uganda’s

Recovery: The Role of Farms,

Firms, and Government, The

World Bank, Washington, DC.

Stiglitz, Joseph (1998). ―The Private

Uses of Public Interests -

Incentives and Institutions,‖

Journal of Economic

Perspectives, Volume 12,

Number 2, Pages 3-22.

______, (1996). ―The Role of

Government in Economic

Development,‖ in: M. Bruno

and B. Pleskovic (eds.) Annual

World Bank Conference on

Development Economics, 1996.

The World Bank, Washington,

D.C.

Tanzi, Vito (2000). ―The Role of

the State and the Quality of the

Public Sector,‖ IMF Working

Paper, WP/00/36, International

Monetary Fund,

World Bank (2002). World

Development Indicators 2002,

The World Bank.

_______, (1997). World

Development Report 1997: The

State in a Changing World.

New York: Oxford University

Press.

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

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Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 32 Ethiopian Economic Association

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Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

PROMOTING STABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 33 Ethiopian Economic Association

A Conflicted Corner of Africa

The Horn of Africa has been the

most conflicted part of the African

continent during the past half

century. Defined here as Ethiopia,

Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia,

Somaliland, Kenya and Uganda, the

root causes of conflict in the Horn

are numerous and sometimes

complex even within a single

dispute. They include ethnic,

language, regional and cultural

differences, arbitrary boundaries,

religion, ideology, competition for

scarce resources such as pasturage

and water, unequal sharing of

resources controlled by the state and

the sheer desire for power. The

importance of conflict on regional

economic development should be

obvious to everyone.

Except for peace between 1972 and

1983, Sudan experienced civil war

from 1955 until 2002 when the

Sudan People‘s Liberation Front

and the government reached a cease

fire agreement. Even today,

however, Sudan faces serious

problems in Darfur region on the

border with Chad and the dispute

with Egypt over the Halaib Triangle

is not resolved. Ethiopia confronted

an Eritrean secessionist movement

that began in 1961 and lasted until

the overthrow of the Derg

government in 1991 by the

Tigrayan People‘s Liberation Front,

its allied organizations and several

Eritrean groups, especially the

Eritrean People‘s Liberation Front.

An agreement to give Eritrea

independence resulted in cordial

relations between Ethiopia and

Eritrea until 1998 when Eritrean

troops entered Badme, a small piece

of territory administered by

Ethiopia. This led to major

hostilities until Ethiopia won a

military victory in 2000. Eritrea

has had less important differences

with Yemen (Hanish Islands),

Sudan (tit for tat support of

opposition groups) and Djibouti

(border issues). Djibouti

experienced periodic attacks by a

dissident Afar organization until the

mid-1990s.

Problems between Somalia and its

neighbors began soon after Somali

independence in 1960 when it

began to press irredentist claims

against Djibouti and parts of

Ethiopia and Kenya. There was

periodic conflict along the Somalia-

Kenya border, a conflict with

Ethiopia in 1964 and a major war

and occupation of most of

Ethiopia‘s Ogaden by Somalia in

1977-78. Somalia experienced its

own civil war beginning in the late

1980s. This led to the collapse of

Somalia in 1991 and the declaration

of an independent state by

authorities in Somaliland. Even

today there are occasional conflicts

between Ethiopia and groups in

Somalia, which remains a failed

state. Kenya has been relatively

free of strife but experienced

periodic ethnic conflict in its Rift

Valley region until the mid-1990s.

Tanzania invaded Uganda in 1978-

79 in a successful effort to

overthrow the Idi Amin regime. A

number of dissident groups have

operated in Uganda, the most

troublesome being the Lord‘s

Resistance Army, which has

received support from Sudan. For

their part, Uganda, Ethiopia and

Eritrea for many years supported

the Sudan People‘s Liberation

Movement against the government

in Khartoum. Uganda provided a

base of operation for the Rwandan

Patriotic Front that gained power

in Rwanda after the 1994

genocide. Uganda also sent

troops into the eastern Congo in

the mid-1990s. All of these

countries, except Somalia,

Somaliland and Djibouti, are Nile

Basin riparian states and, therefore,

part of the solution or problem in

reaching an agreement on the

sharing of Nile water before there is

a new regional conflict.

_________________________________ * Adjunct Professor, Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University.

PROMOTING STABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

David H. Shinn*

Economic Focus

L±n a^×Ñì@KS

PROMOTING STABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

Vol. 6 No. 3 / January 2004 Ethiopian Economic Association

The following remarks on

promoting stability in the Horn of

Africa, although sometimes critical,

are intended as constructive

criticism. They come from a friend

of the Horn of Africa. They do not

necessarily reflect the position of

the U.S. government; rather they are

those of a private American citizen

now working as a university

professor and writer on

developments in Africa. The

factors promoting stability

discussed below usually do not

apply in equal measure to all

countries in the Horn.

Build Democracy and

Transparency

The sooner that all of the countries

of the Horn of Africa develop

stronger democratic institutions and

establish an environment where

opposing ideas can be debated

freely in these institutions, the less

likely there will be new conflicts.

Democratic countries are simply

less threatening to their neighbors.

Democracies rarely attack or

undermine other democracies. This

does not mean that the countries of

the Horn should replicate precisely

the political systems existing today

in North America or among the

members of the European Union.

But some basic concepts must be

put in place without which there

will be no real democracy.

The political environment must

allow a responsible opposition to

compete for power on an equitable

basis. A responsible opposition is

one that operates within the

framework of a nation‘s constitution

and seeks power through legal

means. It is irresponsible if it tries

to achieve power through the use of

force or other extra-legal methods.

The opposition will also become

irresponsible if it succeeds in

reaching power through the

democratic process only to

disregard democratic principles

after that point.

An important part of this

democratic political environment is

regular, free and fair elections. But

elections alone are not the solution.

A vigorous, independent and

professional press must be allowed

to operate freely. There are, of

course, responsibilities that

accompany the private media. Of

all the countries in the Horn, Kenya

has the most open and professional

independent press. Ethiopia has

made noticeable progress in recent

years. The independent press is

increasingly outspoken, critical and

professional. On the other hand, the

perception of press freedom in

Ethiopia has been damaged as a

result of the draft press law and the

dispute between the government

and the Ethiopia Free Press

Journalists‘ Association. Eritrea

does not even have a viable

independent press while the

situation in Sudan has been

regressing recently and, in any

event, there is a long way to go

before it can be said to have a free

press.

Independent and professional

judicial systems are weak

throughout the region. Kenya and

Uganda, perhaps for historical

reasons, appear to have the best

developed judiciaries. In some

countries, such as Ethiopia, the

judicial system remains woefully

understaffed; this contributes

enormously to caseload backlogs.

As important as adequate staffing of

the institution is, there is an

equivalent need to inculcate within

the government and citizenry

respect for independence of the

judiciary. There must also be a

commitment by the government and

the population to abide by the spirit

and letter of the nation‘s

constitution.

All countries in the Horn are subject

to criticism on their human rights

practices, some much more than

others. This is an area where all

elements of society, led by the

government, must make a

commitment to reduce and

eventually eliminate human rights

abuses. Although human rights

organizations do not always get the

facts right, they should be

applauded for their efforts rather

than just vilified when governments

perceive that they are being overly

critical. Human rights should be a

matter of national policy. Ethiopia,

for example, passed legislation in

1999 to establish a national Human

Rights Commission and Office of

the Ombudsman. This was an

excellent initiative. Unfortunately,

the legislation has not yet been

implemented.

A critical element in the

development of democracy is the

strengthening of civil society

organizations. This includes

independent trade unions, chambers

of commerce, women‘s groups,

teacher‘s and lawyer‘s

organizations, student groups,

human rights councils, etc.

Eventually, these organizations can

make a major contribution to

creating an environment that

encourages democratic practices.

Except for Kenya and to some

extent Uganda, civil society is not

well developed in the Horn. The

sooner that civil society groups take

root throughout the Horn of Africa,

the greater the likelihood that real

democracy will follow.

All the good that can come from the

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building of these democratic

institutions and processes will be

destroyed if one insidious

practice—corruption—accompanies

them. To some extent, every

society, including the United States,

faces this problem. Corruption will

never disappear entirely, but

governments and the private sector

must remain vigilant constantly to

minimize the damage done by both

petty and grand corruption. Much

of Kenya‘s success with

democratization has been undone by

the pervasiveness of corruption in

the country. If Kenya does not

control this problem, its prospects

will not be good. Other countries in

the Horn need to take every legal

effort possible in their battle to

contain this disease.

There is often pressure, particularly

in the international donor

community and among opposition

political parties, to push for instant

democracy. There is no such thing

as instant democracy. But the trend

in any particular country must be in

a positive direction. If there is

constant, visible improvement in a

variety of areas, the international

community should be patient and

supportive. If the process stalls or

goes backwards, the international

partners should be outspoken in

their criticism. In any event, they

should aid the process by helping to

build democratic institutions such as

an independent judiciary and

parliament and help in the creation

of a pervasive and influential civil

society. They should also engage

governments—sometimes privately

and sometimes publicly—in a

policy dialogue on those issues

where they do not see eye to eye.

Reduce Ethnic Tension

One of the most difficult problems

to solve in the Horn is the question

of ethnic tension. Ethnic issues

often lead to, or at least contribute

to, conflict in the region. There are

as many reasons for conflict

between groups as there are

solutions to reducing tension. Some

of these differences are historical in

nature. Often they involve

disagreement over scarce resources,

especially land and water. Actual

or perceived lack of political power

by certain ethnic groups is also a

frequent reason for opposing

established governments.

Sometimes the conflict occurs

entirely within the borders of a

country such as the Kikuyu-

Kalenjin disputes over land in

Kenya‘s Rift Valley. Other ethnic

difficulties cross national

boundaries as historically has been

the case with Somalis from Somalia

agitating inside Ethiopia and Kenya.

It is not within the purview of this

paper to suggest solutions to these

numerous ethnic conflicts, whether

they are internal or cross border

disputes. Each case is to some

extent sui generis in any event. But

it is important to take whatever

steps a country can to reduce the

level of ethnic tension. For the

internal problems, equitable sharing

of political power and state

resources is probably the most

important measure a government

can take. For those ethnic conflicts

that cross international boundaries,

regional economic integration and

improved communication at the

local and national level are useful

ways to mitigate conflict. In this

connection, Ethiopia and Sudan

have put in place procedures and

institutions to improve

communication along the border.

The two countries have ambitious

plans to improve economic

integration along the northern part

of their border. At some point, this

would seem to be the most effective

way to repair the relationship

between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

End Support for Opposition

Groups

There is a long history in the Horn

of Africa whereby one country

supports an opposition group in one

or more of the neighboring

countries. This is a destabilizing

and self-defeating policy. It

inevitably leads to retribution by the

targeted country, which then

supports an opposition group in the

country that initiated the problem.

There is no question that this tit for

tat tactic only increases instability

throughout the region and that it

continues up to the present day.

Sudan and its neighbors offer a case

in point. Since the resumption in

1983 of the civil war in Sudan, three

of its neighbors—Uganda, Ethiopia

and Eritrea—have on various

occasions supported the Sudan

Pe op l e‘ s Li ber a t i on

Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and/or

the National Democratic Alliance.

For its part, Sudan has periodically

supported the Lord‘s Resistance

Army (LRA) in Uganda, the Oromo

Liberation Front (OLF) in Ethiopia

and Eritrean Islamic Jihad (EIJ) in

Eritrea. Ultimately, all of this

reciprocal support for another

country‘s opposition group resulted

in more conflict and increased

regional instability.

Joseph Kony‘s LRA in northern

Uganda graphically makes the

argument. For the past 17 years

Kony has opposed the Ugandan

government believing that he has

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spiritual powers to save the Acholi

people. He draws much of his

military support from several

thousand abducted child soldiers

and a couple hundred adult

commanders. Sudan began

supporting the LRA with small

quantities of arms in 1994 in

response to Uganda‘s assistance to

the SPLA. Sudan‘s goal was to

destabilize Uganda on its northern

border in order to obstruct the flow

of arms to the SPLA, which was

fighting Sudan‘s army. Following

efforts by the SPLA and the

government of Sudan to end the

civil war, both Sudan and Uganda

claim they have ended military

support respectively for the LRA

and SPLA. By 2003 Uganda and

Sudan were cooperating in tracking

down LRA forces operating out of

southern Sudan. This is a positive

development, but should the effort

to end the civil war in Sudan fail,

the tit for tat support of these two

groups would probably resume soon

thereafter.

The outbreak of conflict in 1998

between Eritrea and Ethiopia

changed alliances in the Horn.

Ethiopia, Uganda and Eritrea were

until that event aligned against

Sudan. Ethiopia fully normalized

relations with Sudan within a year

or two. Both Uganda and Eritrea

reestablished diplomatic relations

with Khartoum, although Eritrean-

Sudanese ties continue to be

strained. While the Ethiopian-

Eritrean conflict ended much of the

tit for tat support of opposition

groups involving Sudan, it set in

motion a new round of support for

opposition groups in Eritrea and

Ethiopia. Eritrea befriended the

OLF while Ethiopia began to

support opponents of the

government in Asmara.

Until it became a failed state in

1991, Somalia backed or permitted

the operation within its borders of

groups hostile to the government in

Addis Ababa. These groups

included the militant wing of the

Ogadeni National Liberation Front

and the Western Somali Liberation

Front. After the fall of the Siad

Barre government, the political

vacuum in Somalia resulted in new

threats. Due to the absence of a

national government and sometimes

with the connivance of certain

Somali factions, the fundamentalist

al-Ittihad al-Islami launched attacks

in the mid-1990s from Somalia

against Ethiopia. For a brief period

in the late 1990s, one of the Somali

political factions helped the OLF to

establish a base in Somalia. For its

part, Ethiopia attacked its enemies

across the Somali border and

continues to support its favorite

factions inside the country.

The solution, albeit difficult to

achieve, to ending these debilitating

and unproductive games is the full

normalization of relations among all

countries in the Horn followed by

greater political and economic

integration. Until there are

sufficient incentives at the

leadership level of countries in the

Horn to move in this direction,

nothing will happen. Through the

use of tangible incentives and

tough, frank discussions, the

international community can

encourage such a trend. Sudan and

the SPLM/A are well advanced in

achieving reconciliation and

bringing to an end one of the most

destructive civil wars on the

continent. Although the unity

agreement signed in late January in

Nairobi by Somali factional leaders

is encouraging, Somalia is still a

long way from achieving peace.

Continuing problems between

Ethiopia and Eritrea also seem far

from resolution.

Encourage Harmony among

People of Different Religions

The Horn of Africa is located on a

religious fault line. The populations

of Ethiopia and Eritrea are divided

about equally between Muslims and

Christians. Historically, internal

relations between the two religious

groups in both countries have been

cordial. On the other hand, Islamic

invasions from outside have left a

residue of ill feeling. There is a

significant non-Muslim minority in

Sudan, a factor that has contributed

to instability in that country. There

are significant Muslim minorities in

largely Christian Kenya and Uganda

that increasingly lead to tension in

society. Somalia, Somaliland and

Djibouti are almost entirely

Muslim.

It is imperative that governments

pursue policies that encourage

religious harmony in all countries of

the Horn. They can not afford to

add to their list of problems

growing hostility between Muslims

and Christians. It is also becoming

increasingly common for outside

extremist groups to manipulate

small numbers of indigenous

Muslims to support activities aimed

at harming established governments

or Western interests. So far, Kenya

has been the primary focus of these

efforts as evidenced by the 1998

bombing of the American embassy

in Nairobi and the 2002 attacks

against Israeli interests near

Mombasa. The increased use of

terrorism by radical Islamic groups

as a tactic to achieve political goals

is a real threat to the countries of the

Horn. An influx of extreme Islamic

influence from outside is not in the

interest of the region. At the same

time, it is important that Christian

groups not be overzealous as they

proselytize. It is not in anyone‘s

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long term interest if these efforts

result in serious disagreements with

Muslims or, for that matter, other

Christian groups.

Ethiopia, Eritrea, Uganda and,

especially Kenya, need to reach out

more to their Muslim communities

and ensure proportionate sharing of

power and resources.

Radicalization of these Islamic

communities will only undermine

stability. Somalia, Somaliland,

Djibouti and, especially Sudan,

need to be equally attentive to their

non-Muslim minorities. They also

should be alert to and take steps to

prevent the rise of radical Islam,

particularly where the agenda is to

encourage instability in the region.

This is a special problem for

Somalia, which still does not have a

government that controls all of the

country. It is one more reason why

the various political factions in

Somalia need to put their

differences behind them and make

compromises that will lead to a

national government. Finally, if all

the countries in the Horn become

more democratic there will tend to

be a tendency toward greater

harmony among people of different

religions.

There is also a role for the

international community.

Individual partner countries, most

of which are Christian, need to

improve their own understanding

about and outreach to Muslims in

countries where Islam is a minority

religion (Kenya and Uganda) or

where the leadership is

predominantly Christian (Ethiopia

and Eritrea) in a religiously divided

country. This should include

development assistance that is

targeted for areas largely inhabited

by Muslims. The international

community should also increase its

support for the Intergovernmental

Authority on Development‘s efforts

to achieve peace in Sudan and

Somalia. In the case of Somalia, it

may well require a different

approach than the one underway in

Kenya and tried on so many

previous occasions at conferences

outside Somalia. Whatever the

partner countries can do to enhance

religious tolerance in the Horn of

Africa will be time and money well

spent. It is in the interest of both

the countries in the Horn and the

wider international community.

Achieve Equitable Nile Water

Sharing

Equitable sharing of water in the

Nile basin is a critical element in

the long term stability of the region.

There are ten riparian states in the

Nile basin, but the most important

ones are Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt and

Uganda. Ninety-five percent of

Egypt‘s population depends on Nile

water. The Nile effectively is

Egypt‘s lifeline. All of the water

reaching Egypt flows through

Sudan, which also depends heavily

on it for irrigated agriculture.

Eighty-six percent of the water

reaching the Aswan Dam originates,

however, in Ethiopia. Most of it

comes from the Blue Nile and

Ethiopian tributaries that flow into

the Blue Nile; the remainder

originates from Ethiopian tributaries

that flow into Sudan‘s Atbara and

Sobat Rivers. Egypt and Sudan

signed agreements in 1929 and

1959 that divided the water between

the two countries. Ethiopia was not

even a signatory.

Agreement among the ten riparian

states on the use of this water

system has the potential to improve

significantly wider cooperation in

the region. Conversely, failure to

reach agreement will substantially

increase the prospect for instability

and regional conflict. Fortunately,

there are a number of positive

initiatives underway that give hope

for an agreement by the riparian

states on sharing of Nile water.

Potentially the two most important

adversaries over use of the water are

Ethiopia and Egypt. There appears,

however, to be a growing

understanding by both countries of

the need to resolve this issue. The

Egyptian Minister of State for

Foreign Affairs, Fayza Aboulnaga,

during a visit to Addis Ababa at the

end of 2003 described the bilateral

relationship as ―moving towards a

new era of mutual understanding,

mutual confidence and trust.‖

It is in the interest of the ten riparian

states to make the necessary

compromises so that equitable Nile

water sharing can take place. The

wider international community

should also provide strong political

support and reasonable financial

resources to ensure a successful

outcome. A peaceful resolution of

this potentially serious dispute

would constitute one of the most

important instances of conflict

prevention ever witnessed on the

African continent.

Reverse the HIV/AIDS

Pandemic

One of the major challenges to

stability and economic development

in the region is the HIV/AIDS

pandemic. According to UNAIDS,

the HIV prevalence rate for persons

in the 15 to 49 age group in Kenya

is 9.4 percent, Ethiopia 7.3 percent,

Uganda 5 percent and Eritrea 2.4

percent. Uganda, out of all African

countries, has had the greatest

success at lowering the national

prevalence rate from a much higher

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level. Nevertheless, Kampala

residents last year still faced 17

percent HIV prevalence, a sharp

decrease from its peak but an

unacceptably high rate. Although

the percentage of persons in

Ethiopia with HIV is not among the

highest on the continent, Ethiopia

has the third highest number of HIV

positive persons in the world after

India and South Africa. This is due

to Ethiopia‘s large population of 70

million. The prevalence rate in

Somalia, Somaliland and northern

Sudan is thought to be low but

growing. No one knows the

prevalence rate in southern Sudan,

but it is believed to be very high.

Djibouti is also thought to have a

high rate because its population is

concentrated in an urban port city.

In relative terms, Kenya may be the

most threatened country in the

Horn. Out of a total population of

about 30 million, more than two

million are thought to be HIV

positive. An estimated 1.5 million

Kenyans have already died from

AIDS. Life expectancy has dropped

by at least 13 years to

approximately 50 years. HIV/AIDS

reduced GDP by three-tenths of a

percent in 2000 and is expected to

have an even larger negative impact

in the future. More women than

men are HIV positive and

increasingly the epidemic is

becoming a serious gender and

development issue. Although the

Kibaki government has begun to

treat HIV as a major threat to the

economy, the implications for

Kenya‘s economic development

still could be horrendous. In

Malawi, for example, where the

problem is more severe, the World

Bank recently estimated that up to

half of the country‘s professional

workforce could die of AIDS by

2005.

In the Horn of Africa, the impact of

HIV/AIDS on the economy has

already been significant and has the

potential for being catastrophic if

HIV prevalence rates are not

reversed. The Ethiopian Economic

Association‘s Second Annual

Report on the Ethiopian Economy

appropriately emphasized this issue.

It noted that HIV/AIDS retards

growth, weakens human capital,

discourages investment and

exacerbates poverty and inequality.

In short, it increases instability

while a significant reduction in the

HIV rate would enhance stability.

The social, personal and economic

aspects of HIV/AIDS are now

generally appreciated throughout

the region. Only recently, however,

has the negative impact on security

forces become a consideration.

There is a high incidence of

HIV/AIDS in African armies.

According to UNAIDS, between 60

and 70 percent of the personnel in

South Africa‘s military are HIV

positive versus about 20 percent for

the entire adult population. Eleven

percent of Nigeria‘s peacekeepers

returning from Liberia and Sierra

Leone tested positive as compared

to about 5 percent in Nigeria‘s adult

population. An estimated 66

percent of Ugandan soldiers who

went to the Democratic Republic of

the Congo came back positive. The

International Crisis Group reports

that about 10 percent of Eritrean

soldiers are HIV positive. In

southern Africa, the prevalence

rates are already at the point where

they may destroy the security force.

A study of Ethiopia‘s army suggests

that the presence of HIV is about 6

percent or slightly below the rate for

the adult population. Ethiopia has

done a generally good job in dealing

with HIV in the armed forces and is

certainly an exception in this regard.

But this is no time for complacency

in Ethiopia and certainly not in the

other countries of the Horn where

the HIV rate in the military is

probably higher than in the general

population.

At least this is one problem where

the international community is

making a major effort to reverse the

damage. The United Nations‘

Global Fund, the World Bank,

European Union and bilateral

donors like the United States are

providing significant amounts of

financial and technical assistance.

Numerous non-governmental

organizations, foundations such as

Gates and Packard and even private

companies like Pfizer are also doing

their part.

Make Food Security a High

Priority

Most countries in the Horn do not

consistently grow enough food to

feed their populations. They

increasingly rely on imported food,

usually at little or no cost from

donor nations. This is not a

sustainable situation. It has been

said for decades that Sudan is a

potential breadbasket that could

feed much of the region. Yet Sudan

in recent years has barely produced

enough food for its own people.

Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and

Somalia have structural food

deficits. Even in a normal crop

year, there is a need to import food

for five to six million Ethiopians.

During years of severe drought,

locusts and/or flooding they have

huge food deficits. Uganda and

Kenya usually grow enough food to

feed their populations, but even they

have had years when they had to

import food to meet domestic

requirements.

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Improved food security contributes

to political stability. Until conflict

ends in countries like Somalia it

will be difficult to achieve food

self-sufficiency. Sudan will never

be able to maximize agricultural

production so long as the civil war

continues. The entire region needs

to liberalize trade so that crop

surpluses in one country can flow

more easily to a deficit country.

Improved regional transportation

links, for example the road between

Moyale in Ethiopia and Isiolo in

Kenya, would also facilitate the

movement of agricultural goods.

Some countries need to take a hard

look at their agricultural policies.

In this regard, it will be instructive

to evaluate several years from now

the impact of Ethiopia‘s land

resettlement policy on food

production. So long as this remains

a voluntary program, minds should

remain open until enough time has

passed to assess its results. The

debate should continue, however,

on other aspects of land policy in

Ethiopia.

Partner countries and international

organizations have been highly

responsive to meeting emergency

food requirements in the Horn.

They have been much less effective

in helping to increase local food

production. Technical assistance

for the agricultural sector in the

Horn, an evaluation of the impact of

agricultural polices in developed

countries on the economies of poor

developing countries and a frank

agricultural policy dialogue

between the two are all in order.

Pay More Attention to

Population Planning

Closely related to food security is

the problem of high population

growth rates. Fast growing

populations result in more people to

feed. According to the Central

Intelligence Agency Factbook, the

estimated population growth rates in

2003 for countries in the Horn range

from a low of 1.27 percent in Kenya

to a high of 3.43 percent in Somalia.

The only country other than Kenya

with a low rate is Eritrea at 1.28

percent. The Factbook puts

Ethiopia‘s growth rate at 1.96

percent, although Ethiopia‘s

National Population Affairs Office

recently indicated that the growth

rate is 2.7 percent. Factbook

figures for Djibouti are 2.13

percent, Sudan 2.71 percent and

Uganda 2.96 percent.

Most countries in the Horn have

little unused arable land; these high

population growth rates are not

sustainable and they add to political

instability. The UNFPA, the United

Nations Population Fund, projects,

for example, that Ethiopia‘s

population will reach 170 million in

30 years. If this calculation is

correct, it would appear almost

impossible for Ethiopia to grow

enough additional food to support

that population. It is imperative that

governments, partner countries and

international and non-governmental

organizations work to reduce these

high growth rates in order to

diminish pressure on the land and to

provide a higher quality of services

for the existing population. This, in

turn, will promote stability in the

Horn.

Curb Production and Use of

Chat

Readers may be surprised to find in

an analysis of factors that promote

political stability a discussion of

chat. An amphetamine-like

stimulant banned in the United

States and much of Europe, chat is

chewed throughout the Horn and is

a scourge that has done irreparable

harm to most families and the

economy in Djibouti, Somalia and

Somaliland. An addictive substance,

its use is increasing elsewhere,

especially in Ethiopia. Chat reduces

economic productivity, results in

lost time, consumes a

disproportionate amount of

disposable income from those who

have little and results in health

problems.

Chat is a particular dilemma for

Ethiopia and Kenya, which grow it in

highland areas as an important cash

crop. Because of the sharp drop in

the price of coffee, increasingly

farmers are uprooting their coffee

bushes and replacing them with chat.

As a result, chat accounted for 12

percent of all Ethiopian export

income in 2002. Today you can find

significant quantities of chat in the

hills around Harar, Hararge, Bahir

Dar, Butajira and even Addis Ababa.

Until Ethiopian and Kenyan farmers

can be convinced to plant alternative

crops, it will be difficult to eliminate

production of this harmful product. It

may be even more difficult to stop

people from using it. No one has

found a way to end alcoholism and

cocaine use in industrialized societies,

but there are serious programs to limit

the damage they do.

In the meantime, chat production

tends to lead to increasing usage in

those areas where it is grown. What

may appear as a boon for Ethiopian

and Kenyan farmers is already

returning to haunt Ethiopian and

Kenyan society. There should be no

doubt about chat‘s direct contribution

to conflict. It contributes to the on-

going violence in Somalia where the

combination of a young militia

member with an AK-47 and a night of

chat chewing can be deadly.

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Although there are other more

pressing problems in the region, the

sooner the countries of the Horn work

together to curb this practice, the

greater will be the prospects for

stability.

Attack Poverty

The leadership throughout the Horn

of Africa seems to appreciate the

need to alleviate poverty and

probably understands that high

levels of poverty contribute to

conflict. As a region, the Horn is

poor. According to the CIA

Factbook, the percent of the

population that falls below the

poverty line in Ethiopia is 45

percent, in Djibouti and Kenya 50

percent and Eritrea 53 percent.

There are no statistics for Somalia

and Sudan, although it is safe to

assume that they would be high.

Only Uganda at 35 percent scores

reasonably well on this scale.

The World Bank has taken the lead

on this issue with its Poverty

Reduction Strategy model. The

Bank encourages donors to

coordinate in support of a strong

government-driven strategy with

wide civil society participation.

This strategy becomes very

difficult, however, where freedom

of speech and participation are

constrained and where the capacity

to implement poverty reduction

programs is weak. The Bank also

observes that civil war and

interstate conflict lead to a political

impasse and breakdown in decision

making that bring well intentioned

programs to a halt.

By their nature, poverty reduction

programs are long term. They

require the sustained support of the

international community and

intelligent national policies. If they

are to maximize prospects for

improving stability, they must also

have as their goal a reduction in the

gap between the rich and the poor.

And Finally There Are Special

Situations in the Horn

Much of the region will remain

subject to turmoil until there is an

end to Somalia‘s failed state status.

There have been numerous

attempts, most of them supported to

some extent by the international

community, to reestablish a national

government in Somalia. They all

failed and the current effort in

Kenya appears headed toward a

similar result. It is time to return to

a bottom up approach rather than

one which operates from the top

down, i.e. persuading Somali

faction leaders to accept a power

sharing formula. A bottom up

strategy that relies more heavily on

elders, clan leaders and civil society

organizations will take a long time.

But the top down approach has not

shown permanent success after a

dozen years of conferences outside

Somalia.

Ending the civil war in Sudan is

another major priority for stability in

the region. In spite of recent setbacks

in the reconciliation process, the

prospects remain good in the coming

weeks for signing a peace agreement

between the government of Sudan and

the SPLA. The hard part will begin

with implementation of the agreement.

It is important to include political

groups in the implementation phase

that were not signatories to the

agreement. In order to help insure

success, Khartoum must also find a

way to end the conflict in Darfur. All

of this will require enormous

international support and follow

through.

Ethiopia is the key to stability in the

Horn of Africa. With some 70

million people, it has by far the

largest population. It is the only

country that shares a border with all

the other countries except Uganda.

If Ethiopia is unstable, neighboring

countries will almost certainly be

impacted in a negative way. It is

also inevitable that there will be

continuing pressure for this land-

locked country with such a large

population to obtain improved

access to the sea. To some extent,

access can be expanded through

greater use of Port Sudan and

Berbera. But as long as the

Ethiopia-Eritrea border issue

remains unresolved, it will be

difficult to solve this problem.

Eritrea‘s Red Sea port of Assab is

the obvious outlet and a restoration

of cordial relations with Eritrea

would also bring the port of

Massawa back into the picture. It is

none too soon to consider the

possibilities. One could envisage,

for example, an internationally

guaranteed corridor from the

Ethiopian border to Assab and long

term use of Assab port by Ethiopia

in exchange for appropriate

compensation to Eritrea for use of

the corridor and port. In the grand

scheme of things, guaranteed access

to Assab for Ethiopia will play a

major role in helping to assure

stability in the Horn of Africa.