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Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 1Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office
Economic and Revenue Update
Seattle City CouncilApril 22, 2020
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 2Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office
The information in this presentation is a forecast and “forward-looking statement.” No assurance can be given that the forecast results described will be realized, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. This information is prepared primarily to provide information to City elected officials and staff. It has not been prepared with a view to, nor is it suitable for, any investment decision regarding any bonds or financial obligations of the City or any of its instrumentalities. The financial data and other information provided herein is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy for purposes of federal securities laws and regulations. This forecast information speaks only as of the date it was prepared and is subject to change without notice. Any person interested in the bonds or financial obligations of the City should carefully review any information posted by the City at emma.msrb.org.
http://emma.msrb.org/
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 3Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 31
U.S. Economic Forecast from IHS Markit • Assumes that the spread of coronavirus in U.S. peaks in 2020 Q2, allowing a gradual lifting of
restrictions on social gathering starting in 2020 Q3• Scenarios: baseline (45% probability), pessimistic (35% probability), optimistic (20% probability)• All three scenarios predict a recession that will be short (2020 Q1 - 2020 Q3 in the baseline and
pessimistic scenarios, 2020 Q1 - 2020 Q2 in the optimistic scenario) but quite deep• Baseline scenario: consumer spending drops by 5.5% in 2020, real GDP by 5.4%, employment by
14 mil., unemployment peaks at 10.3% in 2020 Q4• Pessimistic scenario: consumer spending drops by 17.1% in 2020, real GDP by 14.9%,
employment by 34 mil., unemployment rate peaks at 22.2% in 2020 Q3• All three scenarios incorporate the $2.3 trillion CARES Act, near zero federal funds rate
maintained through 2025, plus new round of Quantitative Easing (net purchases of Treasury debt)
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 4Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 41
Regional Economic Forecast for Seattle Metropolitan District (MD)• Econometric model for Seattle MD (King and Snohomish Counties)• Inputs
• U.S. economic forecast from IHS (GDP, income, employment, unemployment rate, CPI, and other variables)
• regional data is also used (GDP and income from BEA, employment from ESD, permit data from SDCI, and other variables)
• Output• regional economic forecast for 2020-2029 (GDP, personal income, employment by industry,
unemployment rate, CPI, housing permits)• Our regional forecast is used as input into our revenue forecasts for the large economically driven
revenues (e.g., sales tax, B&O tax, REET and others)• April 2020 forecast scenarios
• rapid recovery based on IHS baseline scenario• slow recovery based on IHS pessimistic scenario
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 5Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 51
Regional Economic Forecast for Seattle MDSignificant downside risk for 2020
Rapid Recovery Scenario• 45% probability• About 65,000 jobs lost• 8% unemployment rate by year end• Income per capita 5.5% lower by year
endSlow Recovery Scenario• 35% probability• About 170,000 jobs lost• 18% unemployment rate by year end• Income per capita 12.5% lower
by year end
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 6Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 61
Uncertainty Prevails -Only Just Beginning to See Revenue Receipts from Crisis Period
Availability of Revenue Information
% of General Fund
Tax PeriodInformation Lag
(weeks from end of tax period)
Property Taxes 23% Bi-Annual 2
B&O Tax 20% Quarterly 7Sales Tax 20% Monthly 7
Utilities Taxes 15% Monthly 6
REET NA Monthly 1
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 7Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 71
Sales Tax Revenue Composition in 2019• 133.7 mil. so about half of sales tax revenue
(about 10% of General Fund revenue) was generated by sectors at high risk (wholesale and retail trade, food, accommodation and recreation services)
• construction which accounted for additional quarter of sales tax revenue (5% of General Fund) is likely to see large decline as well
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 8Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 81
B&O Tax Revenue Composition in 2019• B&O tax revenue sources are more
diversified across industries• in 2019 wholesale and retail trade,
and food, accommodation and recreation services brought in 66.1 mil. so about 4.5% of General Fund revenue
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 9Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 91
General Fund Revenue Scenarios
1.40
1.46
1.51
1.30
1.34
1.46
1.221.24
1.39
$1.20
$1.25
$1.30
$1.35
$1.40
$1.45
$1.50
$1.55
2019 2020 2021 2022
Billi
ons
2020 Adopted Rapid Recovery Slow Recovery
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 10Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 101
General Fund Revenue – Slow Recovery
Slow Growth Scenario ($1,000s) 2019
Actuals 2020
Adopted 2020
Revised 2020
Change 2021 April 2022 April
Property Taxes 320,736 345,085 340,888 (4,197) 353,291 365,600 Sales Taxes 291,961 298,842 233,423 (65,420) 224,522 276,851 Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses 320,503 315,537 257,531 (58,007) 246,406 303,489 Utility Taxes 212,610 220,557 207,286 (13,270) 216,037 226,703 Court Fines/Parking 67,621 65,705 31,459 (34,246) 52,128 64,217 All Else 192,079 156,775 145,567 (11,208) 147,227 150,876 General Fund Total 1,405,509 1,402,501 1,216,154 (186,347) 1,239,610 1,387,736 Growth Rate Year/Year -13% 2% 12%Seatle Center 21,666 22,033 12,881 (9,152) 13,129 14,698 Parks & Recreation 30,153 33,474 10,474 (23,000) 10,676 11,952
2020 Totals do not include Mercer Megablock proceeds
Categories Roll-upwoADSTRSBT
4367911
2019202020212022
GSF - ItemRevisedActualsChangeAdoptedRevisedChangeAprilApril
Property Taxes
Property Tax268,207,000268,168,420(38,580)277,984,916277,001,000(983,916)288,976,000300,742,000
Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,495,00052,568,03773,03767,100,00066,699,000(401,000)67,510,00067,173,000
Sales Taxes
Retail Sales Tax267,577,937268,955,0341,377,097274,739,511245,009,502(29,730,009)246,766,810287,428,167
Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,220,44823,006,203(214,245)24,102,82520,910,594(3,192,231)21,060,57424,530,860
Business Taxes
Business & Occupation Tax (100%)288,922,899302,681,95913,759,060296,938,537273,473,029(23,465,508)274,087,405317,569,273
Public Utility Taxes
Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,445,86357,309,943(135,920)61,149,88658,162,309(2,987,577)58,615,66261,744,191
Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,500,00034,467,729(32,271)34,935,93333,493,945(1,441,988)34,751,37736,141,432
Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)50,876,26953,169,7162,293,44755,419,80857,057,8551,638,04761,611,69963,460,050
Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)20,622,00222,031,2111,409,20921,502,14921,095,731(406,418)22,705,27923,613,490
Private Utility Taxes
Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,929,26910,550,851(378,418)11,310,1569,392,230(1,917,926)9,854,72410,594,674
Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,650,0001,907,158257,1581,800,0001,500,000(300,000)1,500,0001,500,000
Tonnage Tax (100%)6,439,0426,425,782(13,260)6,634,2776,159,486(474,791)6,642,7236,782,004
Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,497,94615,203,453(294,493)14,738,67514,268,287(470,388)13,539,55012,864,864
Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)18,896,71516,663,086(2,233,629)18,419,14117,197,568(1,221,573)16,298,53015,521,295
Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,275,6271,306,53130,9041,280,8421,118,330(162,512)1,160,2201,263,455
Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,484,9891,502,01617,0271,358,1531,148,034(210,119)1,296,3431,434,209
Other Notable GSF Revenues
Business License Fees (100%)18,163,02617,820,855(342,171)18,598,93916,098,192(2,500,747)16,134,35818,693,950
Leasehold Excise Tax5,500,0006,090,794590,7945,500,0005,177,000(323,000)5,229,0005,752,000
Court Fines (100%)27,029,50029,322,8322,293,33227,126,50017,805,000(9,321,500)24,669,00026,667,000
Interest on Investments6,295,2249,378,8623,083,6386,764,9112,082,787(4,682,124)2,124,5612,110,177
Parking Meters38,611,54938,297,695(313,854)38,578,26820,285,000(18,293,268)34,959,00038,233,000
Subtotal1,215,640,3051,236,828,16621,187,8611,265,983,4281,165,134,879(100,848,549)1,209,492,8151,323,819,091
Grants4,522,43015,572,99311,050,5637,020,60311,549,4274,528,82411,549,42711,549,427
Other General Subfund Revenues111,044,105135,442,49024,398,385191,740,585184,108,891(7,631,694)123,200,068125,063,320
1,331,206,8401,387,843,64956,636,8091,464,744,6161,360,793,197(103,951,419)1,344,242,3101,460,431,838
Other Funds - Fund Balance Transfers19,934,89717,665,646(2,269,251)4,256,4003,841,400(415,000)185,000185,000
GSF - Grand Total1,351,141,7371,405,509,29554,367,5571,469,001,0161,364,634,597(104,366,419)1,344,427,3101,460,616,838
General Fund Revenues - Project Specific
Sweetened Beverage Tax23,970,00024,119,430149,43024,329,00016,876,000(7,453,000)21,515,00023,970,000
Short-term Rental Tax10,500,0006,845,016(3,654,984)10,500,0005,600,000(4,900,000)8,750,00010,500,000
Admission Tax11,584,79411,384,500(200,294)11,691,2246,003,483(5,687,741)9,481,9779,956,075
Real Estate Excise Tax82,212,624100,933,33918,720,71582,957,74248,313,005(34,644,737)61,644,57575,351,273
STBD34,392,22631,299,34927,828,628(3,470,721)56,056,45365,293,236
Commercial Parking Tax44,268,00049,231,5994,963,59945,596,00030,321,000(15,275,000)43,088,00045,596,000
School Zone Camera Fund9,817,0009,656,678(160,322)9,666,0007,440,000(2,226,000)14,219,00013,162,000
GSF - Subtotal Growth Rates (yr/yr)5.6%-5.8%3.8%9.5%
Baseline GF April 2020
Account CodeRevenue2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 AprilScenario 1 ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 April
311010Property Tax268,168277,985277,001288,976300,742Property Taxes320,736345,085343,700356,486367,915
311010Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,56867,10066,69967,51067,173Sales Taxes291,961298,842265,920267,827311,959
313010Retail Sales Tax268,955274,740245,010246,767287,428Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses320,503315,537289,571290,222336,263
313030Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,5021,3581,1481,2961,434Utility Taxes212,610220,557213,286220,037226,703
313040Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,00624,10320,91121,06124,531Court Fines/Parking67,62165,70538,09059,62864,900
316010Business & Occupation Tax (100%)302,682296,939273,473274,087317,569All Else192,079156,775147,567150,227152,876
316020Admission Tax11,38411,6916,0039,4829,956General Fund Total1,405,5091,402,5011,298,1351,344,4271,460,617
316070Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,55111,3109,3929,85510,595
316080Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,9071,8001,5001,5001,500Other General Government Revenues
316100Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,20314,73914,26813,54012,865Admission Tax11,38411,6916,0039,4829,956
316110Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)16,66318,41917,19816,29915,521Short-term Rental Tax6,84510,5005,6008,75010,500
316120Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,3071,2811,1181,1601,263Sweetened Beverage Tax24,11924,32916,87621,51523,970
316180Tonnage Tax (100%)6,4266,6346,1596,6436,782Mercer Megablock Sale- 066,50066,500- 0- 0
317040Leasehold Excise Tax6,0915,5005,1775,2295,752Real Estate Excise Tax100,93382,95848,31361,64575,351
317060Gambling Tax427475309459475STBD34,39231,29927,82956,05665,293
317090Short-term Rental Tax6,845- 0- 0- 0- 0Commercial Parking Tax49,23245,59630,32143,08845,596
318100Sweetened Beverage Tax24,119- 0- 0- 0- 0School Zone Camera Fund9,6579,6667,44014,21913,162
335030Pleasure Boat Tax142125100125125
360900Transportation Network Company Tax- 09,6556,58213,57714,002
Total External Taxes1,017,9471,023,854952,048977,5651,077,714
316130Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,31061,15058,16258,61661,744
316140Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,46834,93633,49434,75136,141
316150Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)53,17055,42057,05861,61263,460
316160Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)22,03121,50221,09622,70523,613
Total Interfund Taxes166,979173,008169,810177,684184,959
321010Professional & Occupational Licenses (100%)7,2965,3844,1244,1244,124
321100Business License Fees (100%)17,82118,59916,09816,13418,694
321900Marijuana License Fees452548380380380
322030Fire Permits & Fees7,5717,3696,8847,0847,334
322040Street Use Permits1,2272,2601,7741,8831,933
322170Vehicle Overload Permits219260234230240
322200Other Licenses, Permits & Fees1,7091,1322,2192,2192,219
322260Meter Hood Service2,7354,5004,2004,0504,500
322900Other Non Business Licenses1,2131,3007381,2981,298
Total Licenses40,24241,35236,65237,40340,722
331110Federal Grants - Other8,8731,5595,0595,0595,059
331110Federal Grants - CDBG- 02,194830830830
333000Federal Indirect Grants - Other2,0651,0122,0402,0402,040
334010State Grants - Other4,6354,4504,4504,4504,450
Total Federal and State Grants15,5739,21412,37912,37912,379
335010Marijuana Excise Tax1,4101,5001,3501,3501,350
335060Trial Court Improvement Account152165150150150
335070Criminal Justice Assistance4,0853,7154,1004,1004,100
335140Liquor Excise Tax4,0823,7504,0004,0004,000
335150Liquor Board Profits5,9545,9505,9505,9505,950
Total State Entitlements/Impact Programs15,68215,08015,55015,55015,550
337010Interlocal Agreement452- 0- 0- 0- 0
341060Copy Charges7255525252
341180Legal Services1,6751,4341,4341,4341,434
341190Automated Fingerprint Information System (AFIS)3,8653,9263,8653,8653,865
341190Fire Special Events Services1,8721,5309531,1321,532
341190Personnel Services- 01,330- 0- 0- 0
341220Animal Shelter Licenses & Fees2,3222,5322,1292,1292,129
341220Other Service Charges - General Government2,273766770770770
341220Vehicle Towing Revenues881650444607650
342010Law Enforcement Services12,6687,2019,4949,3219,496
342050Adult Probation and Parole (100%)233300215278300
342120E-911 Reimbursements & Cellular Tax Revenue2,8223,5312,7972,7972,797
342160Emergency Alarm Fees1,743100100100100
Total External Service Charges30,87823,35622,25422,48623,126
342040Court Fines (100%)29,32327,12717,80524,66926,667
350080Municipal Court Cost Recoveries (100%)430300215278300
Total Court Fines29,75227,42718,02024,94726,967
360010Interest on Investments9,3796,7652,0832,1252,110
360130Other Interest Earnings984450375375375
360290Parking Meters38,29838,57820,28534,95938,233
360900Other Miscellaneous Revenue20,52769,30569,2943,0263,026
Total Miscellaneous Revenues69,187115,09892,03740,48443,744
341900Interfund Revenue to City Budget Office1,9891,8741,8741,7011,701
341900Interfund Revenue to HR17,65622,30422,30420,30420,304
341900Miscellaneous Interfund Revenue24,30623,87023,86923,22023,220
Total Interfund Charges43,95148,04848,04745,22545,225
341900Transfer from - Utilities for Council Oversight541600185185185
397010Transfer from - Other Fund17,1253,6563,656- 0- 0
Total Operating Transfers17,6664,2563,841185185
Total General Fund1,447,8581,480,6921,370,6381,353,9091,470,573
Downside GF April 2020
Account CodeRevenue2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 AprilSlow Growth Scenario ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2020 Change2021 April2022 April
311010Property Tax268,168277,985274,735286,927299,764Property Taxes320,736345,085340,888(4,197)353,291365,600
311010Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,56867,10066,15366,36465,836Sales Taxes291,961298,842233,423(65,420)224,522276,851
313010Retail Sales Tax268,955274,740215,068206,866255,081Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses320,503315,537257,531(58,007)246,406303,489
313030Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,5021,3581,1481,2961,434Utility Taxes212,610220,557207,286(13,270)216,037226,703
313040Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,00624,10318,35517,65521,770Court Fines/Parking67,62165,70531,459(34,246)52,12864,217
316010Business & Occupation Tax (100%)302,682296,939241,432230,271284,795All Else192,079156,775145,567(11,208)147,227150,876
316020Admission Tax11,38411,6913,4629,0739,527General Fund Total1,405,5091,402,5011,216,154(186,347)1,239,6101,387,736
316070Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,55111,3109,3929,85510,595Growth Rate Year/Year-13%2%12%
316080Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,9071,8001,5001,5001,500Seatle Center21,66622,03312,881(9,152)13,12914,698
316100Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,20314,73914,26813,54012,865Parks & Recreation30,15333,47410,474(23,000)10,67611,952
316110Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)16,66318,41917,19816,29915,521
316120Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,3071,2811,1181,1601,263Slow Growth Scenario ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2020 Change2021 April2022 April
316180Tonnage Tax (100%)6,4266,6346,1596,6436,782Other General Government Revenues
317040Leasehold Excise Tax6,0915,5005,1775,2295,752Admission Tax11,38411,6913,462(8,230)9,0739,527
317060Gambling Tax427475309459475Short-term Rental Tax6,84510,5005,600(4,900)8,75010,500
317090Short-term Rental Tax6,845- 0- 0- 0- 0Sweetened Beverage Tax24,11924,32916,876(7,453)21,51523,970
318100Sweetened Beverage Tax24,119- 0- 0- 0- 0Mercer Megablock Sale66,50066,500- 0
335030Pleasure Boat Tax142125100125125Real Estate Excise Tax100,93382,95848,313(34,645)61,64575,351
360900Transportation Network Company Tax- 09,6554,58210,57712,002STBD34,39231,29927,829(3,471)56,05665,293
Total External Taxes1,017,9471,023,854880,156883,8391,005,088Commercial Parking Tax49,23245,59630,321(15,275)43,08845,596
School Zone Camera Fund9,6579,6667,440(2,226)14,21913,162
316130Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,31061,15054,16255,61661,744Total236,563282,539206,340(76,199)214,346243,400
316140Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,46834,93633,49434,75136,141
316150Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)53,17055,42057,05861,61263,460Grand Total1,693,8911,740,5471,445,848(294,699)1,477,7621,657,786
316160Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)22,03121,50219,09621,70523,613
Total Interfund Taxes166,979173,008163,810173,684184,959
321010Professional & Occupational Licenses (100%)7,2965,3844,1244,1244,124
321100Business License Fees (100%)17,82118,59916,09816,13418,694
321900Marijuana License Fees452548380380380
322030Fire Permits & Fees7,5717,3696,8847,0847,334
322040Street Use Permits1,2272,2601,7741,8831,933
322170Vehicle Overload Permits219260234230240
322200Other Licenses, Permits & Fees1,7091,1322,2192,2192,219
322260Meter Hood Service2,7354,5004,2004,0504,500
322900Other Non Business Licenses1,2131,3007381,2981,298
Total Licenses40,24241,35236,65237,40340,722
331110Federal Grants - Other8,8731,5595,0595,0595,059
331110Federal Grants - CDBG- 02,194830830830
333000Federal Indirect Grants - Other2,0651,0122,0402,0402,040
334010State Grants - Other4,6354,4504,4504,4504,450
Total Federal and State Grants15,5739,21412,37912,37912,379
335010Marijuana Excise Tax1,4101,5001,3501,3501,350
335060Trial Court Improvement Account152165150150150
335070Criminal Justice Assistance4,0853,7154,1004,1004,100
335140Liquor Excise Tax4,0823,7504,0004,0004,000
335150Liquor Board Profits5,9545,9505,9505,9505,950
Total State Entitlements/Impact Programs15,68215,08015,55015,55015,550
337010Interlocal Agreement452- 0- 0- 0- 0
341060Copy Charges7255525252
341180Legal Services1,6751,4341,4341,4341,434
341190Automated Fingerprint Information System (AFIS)3,8653,9263,8653,8653,865
341190Fire Special Events Services1,8721,5309531,1321,532
341190Personnel Services- 01,330- 0- 0- 0
341220Animal Shelter Licenses & Fees2,3222,5322,1292,1292,129
341220Other Service Charges - General Government2,273766770770770
341220Vehicle Towing Revenues881650444607650
342010Law Enforcement Services12,6687,2019,4949,3219,496
342050Adult Probation and Parole (100%)233300215278300
342120E-911 Reimbursements & Cellular Tax Revenue2,8223,5312,7972,7972,797
342160Emergency Alarm Fees1,743100100100100
Total External Service Charges30,87823,35622,25422,48623,126
342040Court Fines (100%)29,32327,12714,70223,06125,984
350080Municipal Court Cost Recoveries (100%)430300215278300
Total Court Fines29,75227,42714,91723,33926,284
360010Interest on Investments9,3796,7652,0832,1252,110
360130Other Interest Earnings984450375375375
360290Parking Meters38,29838,57816,75729,06738,233
360900Other Miscellaneous Revenue20,52769,30569,2943,0263,026
Total Miscellaneous Revenues69,187115,09888,50934,59343,744
341900Interfund Revenue to City Budget Office1,9891,8741,8741,7011,701
341900Interfund Revenue to HR17,65622,30422,30420,30420,304
341900Miscellaneous Interfund Revenue24,30623,87023,86923,22023,220
Total Interfund Charges43,95148,04848,04745,22545,225
341900Transfer from - Utilities for Council Oversight541600185185185
397010Transfer from - Other Fund17,1253,6563,656- 0- 0
Total Operating Transfers17,6664,2563,841185185
Total General Fund1,447,8581,480,6921,286,1151,248,6841,397,264
Chart
2020 AdoptedScenario 1Scenario 2
2019$ 1,385,611,737$ 1,405,509,295$ 1,405,509,295
2020$ 1,402,501,016$ 1,298,134,597$ 1,216,153,571
2021$ 1,458,174,579$ 1,344,427,310$ 1,239,610,357
2022$ 1,507,452,441$ 1,460,616,838$ 1,387,736,461
2020 Adopted20192020202120221385611737.2209571402501015.9566041458174578.68716531507452440.8161006Scenario 120192020202120221405509294.62999941298134596.99999981344427310.00000021460616837.6172001Scenario 220192020202120221405509294.62999941216153570.89609721239610357.36554071387736460.932267
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 11Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 111
Other Revenue - Slow Recovery
Slow Growth Scenario ($1,000s) 2019
Actuals 2020
Adopted 2020
Revised 2020
Change 2021 April 2022 April Other General Government RevenuesAdmission Tax 11,384 11,691 3,462 (8,230) 9,073 9,527 Short-term Rental Tax 6,845 10,500 5,600 (4,900) 8,750 10,500 Sweetened Beverage Tax 24,119 24,329 16,876 (7,453) 21,515 23,970 Real Estate Excise Tax 100,933 82,958 48,313 (34,645) 61,645 75,351 STBD 64,832 63,726 54,960 (8,766) TBD TBDCommercial Parking Tax 49,232 45,596 30,321 (15,275) 43,088 45,596 School Zone Camera Fund 9,657 9,666 7,440 (2,226) 14,219 13,162 Total 267,003 248,466 166,972 (81,494) 158,290 178,106
Grand Total 1,724,330 1,706,474 1,406,480 (299,994) 1,421,705 1,592,492
Categories Roll-upwoADSTRSBT
4367911
2019202020212022
GSF - ItemRevisedActualsChangeAdoptedRevisedChangeAprilApril
Property Taxes
Property Tax268,207,000268,168,420(38,580)277,984,916277,001,000(983,916)288,976,000300,742,000
Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,495,00052,568,03773,03767,100,00066,699,000(401,000)67,510,00067,173,000
Sales Taxes
Retail Sales Tax267,577,937268,955,0341,377,097274,739,511245,009,502(29,730,009)246,766,810287,428,167
Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,220,44823,006,203(214,245)24,102,82520,910,594(3,192,231)21,060,57424,530,860
Business Taxes
Business & Occupation Tax (100%)288,922,899302,681,95913,759,060296,938,537273,473,029(23,465,508)274,087,405317,569,273
Public Utility Taxes
Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,445,86357,309,943(135,920)61,149,88658,162,309(2,987,577)58,615,66261,744,191
Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,500,00034,467,729(32,271)34,935,93333,493,945(1,441,988)34,751,37736,141,432
Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)50,876,26953,169,7162,293,44755,419,80857,057,8551,638,04761,611,69963,460,050
Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)20,622,00222,031,2111,409,20921,502,14921,095,731(406,418)22,705,27923,613,490
Private Utility Taxes
Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,929,26910,550,851(378,418)11,310,1569,392,230(1,917,926)9,854,72410,594,674
Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,650,0001,907,158257,1581,800,0001,500,000(300,000)1,500,0001,500,000
Tonnage Tax (100%)6,439,0426,425,782(13,260)6,634,2776,159,486(474,791)6,642,7236,782,004
Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,497,94615,203,453(294,493)14,738,67514,268,287(470,388)13,539,55012,864,864
Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)18,896,71516,663,086(2,233,629)18,419,14117,197,568(1,221,573)16,298,53015,521,295
Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,275,6271,306,53130,9041,280,8421,118,330(162,512)1,160,2201,263,455
Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,484,9891,502,01617,0271,358,1531,148,034(210,119)1,296,3431,434,209
Other Notable GSF Revenues
Business License Fees (100%)18,163,02617,820,855(342,171)18,598,93916,098,192(2,500,747)16,134,35818,693,950
Leasehold Excise Tax5,500,0006,090,794590,7945,500,0005,177,000(323,000)5,229,0005,752,000
Court Fines (100%)27,029,50029,322,8322,293,33227,126,50017,805,000(9,321,500)24,669,00026,667,000
Interest on Investments6,295,2249,378,8623,083,6386,764,9112,082,787(4,682,124)2,124,5612,110,177
Parking Meters38,611,54938,297,695(313,854)38,578,26820,285,000(18,293,268)34,959,00038,233,000
Subtotal1,215,640,3051,236,828,16621,187,8611,265,983,4281,165,134,879(100,848,549)1,209,492,8151,323,819,091
Grants4,522,43015,572,99311,050,5637,020,60311,549,4274,528,82411,549,42711,549,427
Other General Subfund Revenues111,044,105135,442,49024,398,385191,740,585184,108,891(7,631,694)123,200,068125,063,320
1,331,206,8401,387,843,64956,636,8091,464,744,6161,360,793,197(103,951,419)1,344,242,3101,460,431,838
Other Funds - Fund Balance Transfers19,934,89717,665,646(2,269,251)4,256,4003,841,400(415,000)185,000185,000
GSF - Grand Total1,351,141,7371,405,509,29554,367,5571,469,001,0161,364,634,597(104,366,419)1,344,427,3101,460,616,838
General Fund Revenues - Project Specific
Sweetened Beverage Tax23,970,00024,119,430149,43024,329,00016,876,000(7,453,000)21,515,00023,970,000
Short-term Rental Tax10,500,0006,845,016(3,654,984)10,500,0005,600,000(4,900,000)8,750,00010,500,000
Admission Tax11,584,79411,384,500(200,294)11,691,2246,003,483(5,687,741)9,481,9779,956,075
Real Estate Excise Tax82,212,624100,933,33918,720,71582,957,74248,313,005(34,644,737)61,644,57575,351,273
STBD34,392,22631,299,34927,828,628(3,470,721)56,056,45365,293,236
Commercial Parking Tax44,268,00049,231,5994,963,59945,596,00030,321,000(15,275,000)43,088,00045,596,000
School Zone Camera Fund9,817,0009,656,678(160,322)9,666,0007,440,000(2,226,000)14,219,00013,162,000
GSF - Subtotal Growth Rates (yr/yr)5.6%-5.8%3.8%9.5%
Baseline GF April 2020
Account CodeRevenue2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 AprilScenario 1 ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 April
311010Property Tax268,168277,985277,001288,976300,742Property Taxes320,736345,085343,700(1,385)356,486367,915
311010Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,56867,10066,69967,51067,173Sales Taxes291,961298,842265,920(32,922)267,827311,959
313010Retail Sales Tax268,955274,740245,010246,767287,428Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses320,503315,537289,571(25,966)290,222336,263
313030Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,5021,3581,1481,2961,434Utility Taxes212,610220,557213,286(7,270)220,037226,703
313040Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,00624,10320,91121,06124,531Court Fines/Parking67,62165,70538,090(27,615)59,62864,900
316010Business & Occupation Tax (100%)302,682296,939273,473274,087317,569All Else192,079156,775147,567(9,208)150,227152,876
316020Admission Tax11,38411,6916,0039,4829,956General Fund Total1,405,5091,402,5011,298,135(104,366)1,344,4271,460,617
316070Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,55111,3109,3929,85510,595
316080Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,9071,8001,5001,5001,500Other General Government Revenues
316100Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,20314,73914,26813,54012,865Admission Tax11,38411,6916,003(5,688)9,4829,956
316110Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)16,66318,41917,19816,29915,521Short-term Rental Tax6,84510,5005,600(4,900)8,75010,500
316120Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,3071,2811,1181,1601,263Sweetened Beverage Tax24,11924,32916,876(7,453)21,51523,970
316180Tonnage Tax (100%)6,4266,6346,1596,6436,782Mercer Megablock Sale- 066,50066,500- 0- 0- 0
317040Leasehold Excise Tax6,0915,5005,1775,2295,752Real Estate Excise Tax100,93382,95848,313(34,645)61,64575,351
317060Gambling Tax427475309459475STBD34,39231,29927,829(3,471)56,05665,293
317090Short-term Rental Tax6,845- 0- 0- 0- 0Commercial Parking Tax49,23245,59630,321(15,275)43,08845,596
318100Sweetened Beverage Tax24,119- 0- 0- 0- 0School Zone Camera Fund9,6579,6667,440(2,226)14,21913,162
335030Pleasure Boat Tax142125100125125
360900Transportation Network Company Tax- 09,6556,58213,57714,002
Total External Taxes1,017,9471,023,854952,048977,5651,077,714
316130Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,31061,15058,16258,61661,744
316140Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,46834,93633,49434,75136,141
316150Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)53,17055,42057,05861,61263,460
316160Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)22,03121,50221,09622,70523,613
Total Interfund Taxes166,979173,008169,810177,684184,959
321010Professional & Occupational Licenses (100%)7,2965,3844,1244,1244,124
321100Business License Fees (100%)17,82118,59916,09816,13418,694
321900Marijuana License Fees452548380380380
322030Fire Permits & Fees7,5717,3696,8847,0847,334
322040Street Use Permits1,2272,2601,7741,8831,933
322170Vehicle Overload Permits219260234230240
322200Other Licenses, Permits & Fees1,7091,1322,2192,2192,219
322260Meter Hood Service2,7354,5004,2004,0504,500
322900Other Non Business Licenses1,2131,3007381,2981,298
Total Licenses40,24241,35236,65237,40340,722
331110Federal Grants - Other8,8731,5595,0595,0595,059
331110Federal Grants - CDBG- 02,194830830830
333000Federal Indirect Grants - Other2,0651,0122,0402,0402,040
334010State Grants - Other4,6354,4504,4504,4504,450
Total Federal and State Grants15,5739,21412,37912,37912,379
335010Marijuana Excise Tax1,4101,5001,3501,3501,350
335060Trial Court Improvement Account152165150150150
335070Criminal Justice Assistance4,0853,7154,1004,1004,100
335140Liquor Excise Tax4,0823,7504,0004,0004,000
335150Liquor Board Profits5,9545,9505,9505,9505,950
Total State Entitlements/Impact Programs15,68215,08015,55015,55015,550
337010Interlocal Agreement452- 0- 0- 0- 0
341060Copy Charges7255525252
341180Legal Services1,6751,4341,4341,4341,434
341190Automated Fingerprint Information System (AFIS)3,8653,9263,8653,8653,865
341190Fire Special Events Services1,8721,5309531,1321,532
341190Personnel Services- 01,330- 0- 0- 0
341220Animal Shelter Licenses & Fees2,3222,5322,1292,1292,129
341220Other Service Charges - General Government2,273766770770770
341220Vehicle Towing Revenues881650444607650
342010Law Enforcement Services12,6687,2019,4949,3219,496
342050Adult Probation and Parole (100%)233300215278300
342120E-911 Reimbursements & Cellular Tax Revenue2,8223,5312,7972,7972,797
342160Emergency Alarm Fees1,743100100100100
Total External Service Charges30,87823,35622,25422,48623,126
342040Court Fines (100%)29,32327,12717,80524,66926,667
350080Municipal Court Cost Recoveries (100%)430300215278300
Total Court Fines29,75227,42718,02024,94726,967
360010Interest on Investments9,3796,7652,0832,1252,110
360130Other Interest Earnings984450375375375
360290Parking Meters38,29838,57820,28534,95938,233
360900Other Miscellaneous Revenue20,52769,30569,2943,0263,026
Total Miscellaneous Revenues69,187115,09892,03740,48443,744
341900Interfund Revenue to City Budget Office1,9891,8741,8741,7011,701
341900Interfund Revenue to HR17,65622,30422,30420,30420,304
341900Miscellaneous Interfund Revenue24,30623,87023,86923,22023,220
Total Interfund Charges43,95148,04848,04745,22545,225
341900Transfer from - Utilities for Council Oversight541600185185185
397010Transfer from - Other Fund17,1253,6563,656- 0- 0
Total Operating Transfers17,6664,2563,841185185
Total General Fund1,447,8581,480,6921,370,6381,353,9091,470,573
Downside GF April 2020
Account CodeRevenue2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 AprilSlow Growth Scenario ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2020 Change2021 April2022 April
311010Property Tax268,168277,985274,735286,927299,764Property Taxes320,736345,085340,888(4,197)353,291365,600
311010Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,56867,10066,15366,36465,836Sales Taxes291,961298,842233,423(65,420)224,522276,851
313010Retail Sales Tax268,955274,740215,068206,866255,081Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses320,503315,537257,531(58,007)246,406303,489
313030Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,5021,3581,1481,2961,434Utility Taxes212,610220,557207,286(13,270)216,037226,703
313040Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,00624,10318,35517,65521,770Court Fines/Parking67,62165,70531,459(34,246)52,12864,217
316010Business & Occupation Tax (100%)302,682296,939241,432230,271284,795All Else192,079156,775145,567(11,208)147,227150,876
316020Admission Tax11,38411,6913,4629,0739,527General Fund Total1,405,5091,402,5011,216,154(186,347)1,239,6101,387,736
316070Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,55111,3109,3929,85510,595Growth Rate Year/Year-13%2%12%
316080Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,9071,8001,5001,5001,500Seatle Center21,66622,03312,881(9,152)13,12914,698
316100Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,20314,73914,26813,54012,865Parks & Recreation30,15333,47410,474(23,000)10,67611,952
316110Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)16,66318,41917,19816,29915,521
316120Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,3071,2811,1181,1601,263Slow Growth Scenario ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2020 Change2021 April2022 April
316180Tonnage Tax (100%)6,4266,6346,1596,6436,782Other General Government Revenues
317040Leasehold Excise Tax6,0915,5005,1775,2295,752Admission Tax11,38411,6913,462(8,230)9,0739,527
317060Gambling Tax427475309459475Short-term Rental Tax6,84510,5005,600(4,900)8,75010,500
317090Short-term Rental Tax6,845- 0- 0- 0- 0Sweetened Beverage Tax24,11924,32916,876(7,453)21,51523,970
318100Sweetened Beverage Tax24,119- 0- 0- 0- 0Real Estate Excise Tax100,93382,95848,313(34,645)61,64575,351
335030Pleasure Boat Tax142125100125125STBD64,83263,72654,960(8,766)TBDTBD
360900Transportation Network Company Tax- 09,6554,58210,57712,002Commercial Parking Tax49,23245,59630,321(15,275)43,08845,596
Total External Taxes1,017,9471,023,854880,156883,8391,005,088School Zone Camera Fund9,6579,6667,440(2,226)14,21913,162
Total267,003248,466166,972(81,494)158,290178,106
316130Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,31061,15054,16255,61661,744
316140Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,46834,93633,49434,75136,141Grand Total1,724,3301,706,4741,406,480(299,994)1,421,7051,592,492
316150Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)53,17055,42057,05861,61263,460
316160Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)22,03121,50219,09621,70523,613
Total Interfund Taxes166,979173,008163,810173,684184,959
321010Professional & Occupational Licenses (100%)7,2965,3844,1244,1244,124
321100Business License Fees (100%)17,82118,59916,09816,13418,694
321900Marijuana License Fees452548380380380
322030Fire Permits & Fees7,5717,3696,8847,0847,334
322040Street Use Permits1,2272,2601,7741,8831,933
322170Vehicle Overload Permits219260234230240
322200Other Licenses, Permits & Fees1,7091,1322,2192,2192,219
322260Meter Hood Service2,7354,5004,2004,0504,500
322900Other Non Business Licenses1,2131,3007381,2981,298
Total Licenses40,24241,35236,65237,40340,722
331110Federal Grants - Other8,8731,5595,0595,0595,059
331110Federal Grants - CDBG- 02,194830830830
333000Federal Indirect Grants - Other2,0651,0122,0402,0402,040
334010State Grants - Other4,6354,4504,4504,4504,450
Total Federal and State Grants15,5739,21412,37912,37912,379
335010Marijuana Excise Tax1,4101,5001,3501,3501,350
335060Trial Court Improvement Account152165150150150
335070Criminal Justice Assistance4,0853,7154,1004,1004,100
335140Liquor Excise Tax4,0823,7504,0004,0004,000
335150Liquor Board Profits5,9545,9505,9505,9505,950
Total State Entitlements/Impact Programs15,68215,08015,55015,55015,550
337010Interlocal Agreement452- 0- 0- 0- 0
341060Copy Charges7255525252
341180Legal Services1,6751,4341,4341,4341,434
341190Automated Fingerprint Information System (AFIS)3,8653,9263,8653,8653,865
341190Fire Special Events Services1,8721,5309531,1321,532
341190Personnel Services- 01,330- 0- 0- 0
341220Animal Shelter Licenses & Fees2,3222,5322,1292,1292,129
341220Other Service Charges - General Government2,273766770770770
341220Vehicle Towing Revenues881650444607650
342010Law Enforcement Services12,6687,2019,4949,3219,496
342050Adult Probation and Parole (100%)233300215278300
342120E-911 Reimbursements & Cellular Tax Revenue2,8223,5312,7972,7972,797
342160Emergency Alarm Fees1,743100100100100
Total External Service Charges30,87823,35622,25422,48623,126
342040Court Fines (100%)29,32327,12714,70223,06125,984
350080Municipal Court Cost Recoveries (100%)430300215278300
Total Court Fines29,75227,42714,91723,33926,284
360010Interest on Investments9,3796,7652,0832,1252,110
360130Other Interest Earnings984450375375375
360290Parking Meters38,29838,57816,75729,06738,233
360900Other Miscellaneous Revenue20,52769,30569,2943,0263,026
Total Miscellaneous Revenues69,187115,09888,50934,59343,744
341900Interfund Revenue to City Budget Office1,9891,8741,8741,7011,701
341900Interfund Revenue to HR17,65622,30422,30420,30420,304
341900Miscellaneous Interfund Revenue24,30623,87023,86923,22023,220
Total Interfund Charges43,95148,04848,04745,22545,225
341900Transfer from - Utilities for Council Oversight541600185185185
397010Transfer from - Other Fund17,1253,6563,656- 0- 0
Total Operating Transfers17,6664,2563,841185185
Total General Fund1,447,8581,480,6921,286,1151,248,6841,397,264
Chart
2020 AdoptedRapid GrowthSlow Growth
2019$ 1,385,611,737$ 1,405,509,295$ 1,405,509,295
2020$ 1,402,501,016$ 1,298,134,597$ 1,216,153,571
2021$ 1,458,174,579$ 1,344,427,310$ 1,239,610,357
2022$ 1,507,452,441$ 1,460,616,838$ 1,387,736,461
2020 Adopted20192020202120221385611737.2209571402501015.9566041458174578.68716531507452440.8161006Rapid Growth20192020202120221405509294.62999941298134596.99999981344427310.00000021460616837.6172001Slow Growth20192020202120221405509294.62999941216153570.89609721239610357.36554071387736460.932267
Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 12Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 121
Resources for Balancing• Rainy Day Fund (Revenue Stabilization Account) ($60.8 m)• Emergency Fund ($66.9 m)• Unanticipated 2019 Year-end General Fund Balance ($18.6 m)• Reduce 2020 spending• Other Fund Balances / One-time Resources• Levy Funds – pursue flexibility allowed under authorizing
legislation• Federal and State COVID-19 response and mitigation funding
Economic and Revenue Update �Slide Number 2U.S. Economic Forecast from IHS Markit Regional Economic Forecast for Seattle Metropolitan District (MD)Regional Economic Forecast for Seattle MDUncertainty Prevails - �Only Just Beginning to See Revenue Receipts from Crisis PeriodSales Tax Revenue Composition in 2019B&O Tax Revenue Composition in 2019General Fund Revenue ScenariosGeneral Fund Revenue – Slow RecoveryOther Revenue - Slow RecoveryResources for Balancing