1. : , : , - , , . , , . , , . , 20 , . , . . . 3

2. : , 1. .. (Sc), . - - , , . : , , , , . : - , 2002, , - : , , , 2004, . 2. .. (Ph), . - - , . : , , . : , 2001, , , 2004, 3. .. (Ph), . - - , . : , , . : : , , , 2003, , -2003, 4. .. (Ph), . - - . : , , . : , 1999, , , 2000, 5. .. . - - , . : , . 6. .. (Ph). - - . 7. .. (Ph). - , . 8. .. (Ph). - - . 9. .. (Ph). . 10... . - - . 11... . : . : , 2005, , , 2005, 12... . : . : , 2001 4 3. : , 1 : . , , , . , - . 21- . /2004 12- / . , , . . . . - 5 4. : , . . 21- , . , , . , . , , . , . .. , , . . . , , , 6 5. : , , , . , , . . . / 1- / 1- : Trade and environment. WTO publications. 1999. p-32 , , . . U . 7 6. : , , . : /2- /. 2- : Trade and environment. WTO publications. 1999. p-32 . . . 8 7. : , , , , 9,2-11,5 1,7-3.6 . , , 70 . 3/2 , , . - , , , . . . , , . , . . , . , . . 9 8. : , 50 . , . / / , , , , j . . // . , , , . , . 10 9. : , , , , , , , - , , , , , . / sustainable development/- . - , , 11 10. : , , , . , , , . : 1. . . . . .2003. 2. Garry P.Sampson and W.Bradnee Chambers. Trade Environment and Millennium Second edition. United University press. 2004 3. .. - : , , . . 2004. 4. .. - . . 2002. 5. . . . . . 2004 6. Trade and Environment. WTO publications. 12 11. : , 2 . 25 . . : 1. - . 2. - . 3. - . 4. . / 1/ , 1 - - /. 13 12. : , . - , , . , , . 2003 , 2004 . . , , , , , , . . . . , . / 2/ 2 14 13. : , . . , , . . / 3/ 3 - / , / / , / / , - / /- . 15 14. : , , . , . . 1. - , , , , . 2. - , , , , , . 3. - , , , , , . 4. , -, , , , , , . 5. - , , , , , . 6., - , , . 7. , - , , , . 8., -, , . 9., - , , , , , . 10., - , , , , , , /- /- . 11. - , , , , . , . . 16 15. : , . . , . . . . / 1/ 1 100 , , 46 39 38 35 , 34 , 31 26 24 147, 44, 64 . . . : 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 17 16. : , 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12., , 13. 14. 15. 16. . , . . . , - 70-25 . . 2004 70 , 12.5 , 55 . , 300 . , , , . , 18 17. : , . 2,3- . 44.3%, , 22% , , . 16.4% . 2 % % % % % % 19 39.6 37 48 26 44.8 13 50 30 41.1 125 44.3 6 12.5 6 7.8 6 10.3 7 9.6 25 8.7 , 12 25 22 28.6 13 22.4 6 23.1 9 12.3 62 22 7 14.6 4 5.2 7 12.1 1 3.8 5 6.8 24 8.5 4 8.3 8 10.4 6 10.3 6 23.1 22 30.2 46 16.4 48 100 77 100 58 100 26 100 73 100 282 100 , , . 19.8% . 3 % % % % % % 18 37.5 23 29.8 32 55.2 2 7.7 2 2.7 77 27.3 12 25 32 41.5 17 29.4 4 15.4 7 9.6 72 25.5 1 2.1 2 2.6 1 3.8 15 20.5 19 6.7 5 10.4 9 11.7 4 6.8 10 38.5 21 28.7 49 17.4 1 2.1 3 3.8 2 3.4 2 7.7 1 1.3 9 3.2 11 22.9 8 10.6 3 5.2 7 26.9 27 37.2 56 19.8 48 100 77 100 58 100 26 100 73 100 282 100 , . . 19 18. : , , , . . - , , . . 3 . : 1. , . , . 2. , . 3. . 4 5 / 52.1 51.9 48.3 69.2 43.8 50.7 41.6 37.7 29.3 23.0 27.4 32.6 6.3 10.4 22.4 7.8 28.8 16.7 17.0 27.3 20.6 9.2 25.9 100.0 . 4- . 32.6 , 20 19. : , 16.6 . 51.8 , 8.1 , 31.2 . . / 5/ 5 31.2 24.6 15.5 42.3 36.5 31.2 10.5 3.9 10.3 7.7 9.6 8.1 52.0 65.0 65.5 27.0 35.6 51.8 6.3 6.5 8.7 23.0 8.3 8.9 17.0 21.3 20.6 9.2 25.9 100.0 . /40.1 / . , /10 / . / , , / . 6 0-1 1-3 3-5 5-10 10 31.8 28.5 46.0 51.8 48.7 40.1 13.7 15.7 7.9 12.9 7.4 12.1 18.2 13.8 11.1 3.7 7.4 10.6 - 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.5 1.8 9.1 5.8 4.8 7.4 4.8 6.0 4.5 9.8 3.2 1.9 9.7 6.4 4.5 4.9 4.8 1.9 2.5 3.9 4.5 11.7 9.5 5.6 4.9 8.5 13.7 7.8 11.1 12.9 12.1 10.6 7.8 36.2 22.3 19.2 14.5 100.0 , 21 20. : , . 1996-2000 53 33.8 5 88.5 . , . - . , , . . . 1 : /, , , , / 2 : / , / 3 , : / , , / 4 : / , , , / 5 : / , / 6 : / , , ./ : 1. . , 2004, 22 21. : , 2. . , , 2003, 3. . , Marketing management, 2000 23 22. : , 3 - . 1990-2003 386.8 1 - 10.5%- 3.7 2 . , . , . - , . , Balasubramanyam (1996), Carkovic & Levine (2002) - - , , . , . . : 1 - , World Investment Report 2004- 2 World Bank World Development Indicators, , -2003- 24 23. : , Y=g (L, K, F, t) [1] Y- - , L- , K- , F- , t- . 2 Log - . y= + 1l + 2k + 3f [2] , - . Balasubramanyam (1996) - . .. GDP=6.67l 0.85 k 0.18 f 0.8 - (k/y; f/y)- - , . - 0.85 (0.18), (0.08)- , - . - . 3 - 74.0%- . , - 15%- - 1989-2003 . , . 1989-2003 , 25 24. : , Bhagwati (1978)- . . - . , . . - , . - , 2003 - 51.5%- .3 - , - , . , . , , , . . Hanson (2001)- - . , , , 3 2003 26 25. : , . , . : 1. International financial statistics 2002, 2003 2. 2003 2004 3. 2004 4. World Investment Report 2004 5. World Trade Report 2004 6. Banerjee, A., Galbraith, J.W. and Dolado, J. (1990). Dynamic specification and linear transformations of the autoregressive-distributed lag model. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 95-104. 7. Clements, M.P. and Hendry, D.F. (1995). Forecasting in cointegrated systems. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127-146. 8. Engle, R.F. and Yoo B.S. (1987). Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems. Journal of Econometrics, 35, 143-159. 9. Harvey, A. (1997). Trends, cycles and autoregressions. Economic Journal, 107, 192-201. 10. Hendry, D.F. (1995), Dynamic Econometrics, Oxford University Press, Oxford. : 1. World Bank Group; IBRD, IDA, IFC, MIGA, ICSID - http://www.worldbank.org 2. International Monetary Fund (IMF) - http://www.imf.org 3. World World Trade Organization (WTO) - http://www.wto.org 4. UN Databases - http://www.unctad.org 27 26. : , 4 ., . . . . 1993 , , , . 1990 , , , . - . 1995 - , 1997 . 1998 - , , , . , , 28 27. : , - 2002 . - , , , 2002 10 . , . , , - . , . : , . - . , . . . 29 28. : , , . , , . , , , , . , , , . , , . , . . , . - - 1997 - , . , , , , , , , . 30 29. : , , , , , . , , . . , , , , 4, 6, 8 . 3 , , . , , . () . : Vnt = pntqnt (1) Vnt - ( ) n t pnt -n , qnt n , 2 . Vin = vnt/vno (2) 31 30. : , i o (2) . . 1- , . : pin = pnt /pno qin = qnt/qno (3) pin - n , qin n pnt qnt n (2)- . : vin = pnt qnt /pno qno = pin qin (4) 4- . , , . 3 () . : , , 3 . - . : PIL - , PIP - , 2 . , (5) = qp qp ntno ntnt PIP (6) = qp qp nono nont PIL 32 31. : , , , . , . , . 7 , . 5 . : 0.00001 . 5 . (pnt=pitpno) , . : 10 , , () . . : = qp qP W nono nono no (7) === qp qp pi qp qppi qp qp nono nono n nono nonon nono nont PIL (8) (9) = wpi on PIL = w piw no no PIL wp wp nono nont PIL = (10) qp p pqp p p qp ntno nt nontnt no nt ntnt ==: (11) 33 32. : , pno qnt - , , , , , . : QIP- , , , , . , , . , , 21 . (, , ) . , , , , , , , . , . . , , . 1- . QIP PIL VI qp qp qp qp qp qp nono ntno ntno ntnt nono ntnt === : 34 %100* Lpi TOT = Lpx 33. : , TOT- (terms of trade) Lpx- Lpi- . 2 . : 1. 1 100 . 1 100 . . 1999 2000 117.7 2000 1999 . 2000 . 2. . 2 100 . . 1999 1997 128.7, 1998 107.3 1998 1997 16.6 . 1997 1998 1999 . 3 . 2000=100 2001 2002 2003 ; 83.5 80.3 97.0 139.2 130.8 142.0 ; 114.4 125.4 130.4 117.4 129.1 150.3 60.0 61.4 68.3 35 34. : , 100 . , . . . . . , , . . . . . . , . , . . , , . 36 35. : , , . . , 1000 - . . . , , . , , . 2 . , . . , . 1993 - , , , . , . , 37 36. : , - . , . , , , , . . , , . . . . . . . . . 1980-1997 1997 . p q p q p q p Q 1980 1995 1997 12.0 13.5 - 5100 6500 6800 2000.0 1400.0 1250.0 200 350 380 7500.0 7000.0 6000.0 100 200 220 20.0 16.0 15.0 800 1000 1200 38 37. : , . 86.85 2220000 1906000 10002020075003802000 10001620070003501400' 70/85 == + ++ = xxxx xxx Ip 47.74 2434000 1813000 12002022075003802000 12000.1522060003801250' 70/87 == ++ ++ = xxx xxx Ip : ' ' 70/85 70/87 70/85 70/87 p p p p I I I I = 1980-1995 4 ' ' 70/85 70/8770/85 70/87 p pp P I II I = . 76.87 2298000 1993750 70/85 ==pI 25.75 86.85 47.7476.86 70/87 = =pI . . . . 1. , 2. , , , , . Excel , . Y - 1X - 2X - - , ( ) 39 38. : , 1) Excel Insert/Function Paste Function . CORREL . - array 1,2- . Y - , - . 1, XY 1, XY 1X R=0.9855 . 2) . Excel Tools/Data Analysis... . REGRESSION , Input Y range Y- .input X range X1,X2,- . Output range . Y=aX+b . : 073523.3088900285.4268710697.0 21 += XXY . , . 40 39. : , , , , , , , . , , , . , , , , , , . . 1 2 , 3 4 5 , 5 , . : , (P 6) (P 7) - (P 6.1) (P 7.1) - (P 6.2) (P 7.2) (B1.1) (+,-) ( ) , , , , , , , , . 2 , ( ) , 41 40. : , , ( ), . , . , , . . . , ,, ,, . , - (+,-) (1.1) (D1) (D1e) ( ) (D2-3) ( ) (D2-3) (D4) (D4) (D5) (D5) , (D6) , (D6) (D7) (D7) (B1.2) , . , , . , , . , . . . , . , ,, ,, ,, ,, 42 41. : , . , , , , , , . 2 . ( , ) , . , ,, ,, . (K2) (B1.2) (+d9) (-d9) (B1.2+d9-96) (+), (-) - . () , ( , .) , , , ( , ) . , . , . 43 42. : , ( ) (+), (-) , . 2 . , , , , , 3 . : (AN) (AF) (AN2) (AF) () , . , , , , , , , , . . , , . , . - 2 . . . . 44 43. : , , . . 1. . , , . 2. Y , . , , , , . 3. . , , , , , , . 4. Y . . , , , . 5. . 1. , , , , . 2. . , . 3. , . , , 6. . , 7. , . , . . , . . , , , . . 1. System of national accounts, 1993, UN8 WB, IMF, OECD 2. . 1977 3. International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions, UNSD, 1998 45 44. : , 4. .. , , 2002 5. .. , , 1995 6. , , 1996 46 45. : , 5 ., ., . - - . - , , , , . I. , , , ,, , - 1.7 . : 47 46. : , 1- 15 , 1- . 1- - 1990-2000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2.3 2.2 3.0 4.0 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.8 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.5 1.0 1.2 2.0 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.4 3.7 0.5 2.2 3.1 4.0 2.1 2.9 2.9 3.6 1.7 1.0 0.7 2.0 1.4 -1.1 0.1 2.8 0.4 -0.3 2.5 4.3 4.9 1.3 3.6 5.6 2.4 3.5 4.5 5.8 6.2 0.7 5.4 6.9 3.2 5.4 5.9 6.6 10.3 7.8 7.1 8.0 7.5 8.0 9.1 8.5 5.8 -6.7 10.9 9.3 3.1 6.4 3.1 6.5 2.5 -0.8 3.6 6.8 4.5 3.9 5.9 5.9 -4.7 -5.3 6.4 10.0 5.0 4.3 7.3 7.0 0.0 3.5 3.2 1.1 1.0 4.0 5.5 10.6 : World Bank World Development Indicators-2004 , , 48 47. : , , . . II. , , , - . . - 457 . 780 ., 10006 ., 31407 . .4 /Human Development Report 2004/. - , 2- . 0.57, 0.08, 0.98, 0.62 1.43 . 2- - /2004 , / 1298847.624 127333002 22697553 48598175 2751314 6000000 , % 0-14: 22.3 14.3 24.6 20.4 32.6 15.0 15-64: 70.3 66.7 67.8 71.4 63.8 71.3 65- 7.5 19 7.6 8.2 3.6 13.7 : The world factbook 2004. 0-14 29.7 , 15-64 71.4 , 4 Human Development Report 2004 49 48. : , 65 19 . , . - , , . , , - , , . . : 1. - . 2. , . 3. , . III. - 1/5- - 1/7- .5 2003 12.7%, 12.9%- 22.5%, 27.6%- . 17.0%, 14.3%- 27.8%, 27.0% .6 . 5 WB World Development Indicators 6 WTO World Trade Statistics-2004 , . . 50 49. : , , , . - , . , 15 10 2 . 17% . - , . , , , , . . 51 50. : , 1- 100.00 108.01 142.46 175.16 177.83 215.20 216.28 229.49 293.39 313.28 383.29 516.13 100.00 106.58 116.81 130.37 120.89 123.85 114.13 123.38 141.00 118.72 122.61 138.87 100.00 113.70 168.85 202.74 221.50 220.83 187.21 189.16 263.91 257.85 267.15 337.50 100.00 98.51 91.68 121.86 109.24 146.37 119.03 116.94 137.95 134.27 134.91 158.57 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 % . - , . , , - . . 52 51. : , 2- 100.00 129.01 143.47 163.91 172.28 176.67 174.02 205.62 279.32 302.23 366.32 512.25 100.00 103.59 118.00 144.00 149.69 145.23 120.25 133.45 162.71 149.67 144.57 177.07 100.00 102.48 125.16 165.23 183.84 176.85 114.07 146.44 196.25 172.54 186.03 218.65 100.00 97.34 152.63 184.12 207.95 222.40 175.27 119.45 135.53 162.43 182.84 100.00 90.60 61.77 99.28 107.79 111.95 120.32 122.59 146.90 152.45 165.14 191.49 100.00 99.79 114.01 135.96 142.58 147.48 145.90 152.01 172.51 166.20 172.41 194.67 223.56 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 % . -- 2010 20 . 53 52. : , 3- 100.0 5.8 4.2 89.9 100.0 7.4 11.8 80.2 100.0 2.4 1.3 94.9 100.0 5.2 3.7 90.5 100.0 2.6 2.9 93.7 100.0 6.4 15.1 76.5 100.0 1.1 1.6 93.0 100.0 16.3 24.2 57.5 100.0 2.4 5.3 90.7 100.0 8.8 26.3 61.9 100.0 7.2 64.0 27.3 100.0 19.8 5.2 74.9 100.0 5.0 52.3 32.7 100.0 15.8 20.2 64.0 , , . , , , . , , - . , . , , , , , , . . -- 2010 20 .. 54 53. : , , . - 1% - 0.17%- , 1% - 0.07%- .7 , . 8 . 1990- 2003 386.8 9 10.5%- 10 . - . - - . - . , , , 1992 . - . () , , - - 21- . : -1991-1996 -1996-2001 -2001 . , 7 , - World Development Indicators-2004- , . . 8 . 2005 9 - , World Investment Report 2004- 10 , -2003- 55 54. : , . , , .. - , . , , - . - , 2 . . , , , . , , , . 4- , 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 I II III : . - , , , - 56 55. : , . - . : , . , , , , / , , / . , . 6 3 . , - - . , - . , . , , - . , . . 57 56. : , : . - . 3 . : 1. 2. 3. , 4. , / /, , fiber , , , , . , , . , . . 1998 80-100% 2004 34,2% , 2006 7 1- 25%- . - , , . . - / / - . . 40% . 58 57. : , . , , , . , APEC, , . , . - - , . , 1. .. . .2005 2. . . - : , , . .2004 3. Dagvadorj D, New Asia and Mongolia. Research paper. Seoul 2001. 4. Dagvadorj. Business development and marketing capability of Mongolia. The Network of North-East Asia Economic Cooperation. Conference papers of Korea Mongolia Economic Association. Seoul. Korea. May 2001 5. Dagvadorj D, Market Situation and Opportunities in Mongolia. Journal of Business Administration. Volume 62. Bangkok. 1993. 6. Hawkins, Best, Coney. Consumer behavior: Building Marketing Strategy. Eighth Edition. Irvin McGraw Hill higher Education. 2001. pp40-41 7. Political, Security, Economic and Infrastructure Factors of Economic Cooperation in the North East Asia. Ulaanbaatar, 2002 8. Thomas Tan Tsu Wee, In An exploration of a global teenage lifestyle in Asian societies, Journal of Consumer Marketing;16:4 1999; pp365-375 argues. 9. Ten Years of Tumen River Area Development: Chan-Woo Lee. ERINA booklet.Volume 2 Febriary 200315. BRIEFING PAPER. CUTS Centre for International trade, Economics & Environment. 4. 2004 Websites: WTO. http://www.wto.org World Bank http://www.worldbank.org International Monetary Fund http://www.imf.org UNDP http://www.undp.org Human Development Report Office UNDP http://hdr.undp.org Korea National Statistical Office, www.nso.go.kr/acces 59 58. : , ABSTRACT This article include some results and conclusions of ARCs project on theme Comparative study of consumer markets of North East Asian countries, which has been done by research team of Department of Marketing and International Trade of NUM. The research has aimed at identifying consumer market development trends and specific features of consumer behaviors of North East Asian countries. Moreover, objectives of the study include identifying ways to develop more open and free trade among NE Asian countries and to enhance Mongolian export opportunities and to enable more appropriate imports in this region. The trade policy analysis enables an opportunity to summarize ideas to form appropriate structure of import and export between Mongolia and North East Asian countries. North East Asian countries play significant roles in Mongolian economic foreign relations since 55.9% of Mongolian export, 85.8% of Mongolian import and almost 70% of foreign direct investment in Mongolia refer to this region. It is too obvious that North East Asian region is strategically important region to Mongolia, considering its geographical location, economic importance and its expected growth. 60 59. : , 6 . , , - , , , . , , , , . , , , , , . / 1/ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - : : . . . . , 1999, 235. 61 60. : , 1995-2003 1.3-1.5 , 2003 2504.0 . 1950 80 2003 58.7 , 35.6 . / 1/ 1. 1990 1995 2000 2003 2000/1995 2003/2000 2149.3 2317.5 2407.5 2504.0 103.9 104.0 1225.1 1222.2 1377.0 1464.2 112.7 106.3 : 575.0 609.9 786.5 893.4 129.0 113.6 (.) 924.2 1057.8 1030.5 1039.8 97.4 100.9 , , , , , , . ? 98 , . , , , , . , . : 1. : , , , , , 2. : , , , , , , , 3. : , , 4. : 62 61. : , , , , , , , , , , . , , . , , , , , , , , . , 1. , , . 2. , , , , , , , . 3. , , . , , . 4. . : , , 63 62. : , , , - , , , , , , 64 63. : , 7 , . 1. . 1980- . : - . , , , . - . , , . - . , , . - . , , , . - . , , , . . ? 65 64. : , , , . 1990-2015 : , , : 1990- , . , , , 1990- , , , - , , , . , , . 2015 : : , 2015 . , . . , , . , , , . 2015-2025: : , , , , . , , / / / , / . 66 65. : , . , . 2025 : : , , . . . . , , . , . , . , , , , , , . 2. , , . , , , , . - : 6.2 2025 8 . , , , , . 20 / 9266 . / , / 755 . / . 98% . 67 66. : , , , . , , , . - : . , , , . , - : . : . , , , , , , . , , , . , . 68 67. : , - : , . . , , . , , . - : , , . , , , , , . - , : , , , , , , . , , , . . , , , . , , . - :: 1980- 2000 43% 2050 150-230% . , . 69 68. : , 2 , , , , , . , , . . - : , , , , , . , , , . , , . , , . - , , : , . , , . , . , , , . 70 69. : , : - . , . , . , , . - : // . , , , , , , , , , . , . . , . , , . - : , , . . , , . , . 71 70. : , - : . , , , , . , , . , , , , , . , . 70% . , , , , , . . , - : , , . , . , , , . , , , . - , : , , , , , . 2010 50% 1950 20% 72 71. : , 2010 40- . 60 , . , , . , . , , - . - , , , , : , , , . , . , , , , , . , . , . , . . , , . 24 , , . , - - : , . , , , , , . , , , 73 72. : , . . - : , . 2025 , , , . , , , . , . . /16-60/ 2000-2025 740 690 . 43% 3-4 . 50% , . . , , , . , - : , , , , , , . , , , , , . 74 73. : , - : , . , . , //- . , , , . - , , : , . , , , , // . , , , , , . . , , , . 1. 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(, ) , - , , . , , , , , , , , . . : , breakfast, , ; : ; : () , ; , : , , , , , . - 1998 , , , , . , , , , , , , . . , . , , . , . ? 81 80. : , . . , Big Ben , , , , , . . . , , . , , , II , , , , , . , . Panel-2000 , , , , , . , . , . , , . , . 82 81. : , . , . , , , . , 36 . 1999 160 . , , , , . 2015 , . 1999 , , , . 11 . , , . , - Transparensy International , 12 . 2004 146 , 10, 0 , 10 9.7 , (9.61), (9.5), (9.5), (9.3), (9.2), (9.1), (8.9), (8.8), (8.7) , 3.0 85- . . 11 . . //, 2000. 12 http://www.transparensy.orj/cpi/2004/ 83 82. : , (2.0- ) , , , , , , , , , , , , . , , . 1996 , . 2003 , . . , . ? , . . , 13 . , , , , . . . XX 30- , 13 . - . , 2002. 84 83. : , , , . , , 14 . . . : , , , , , ; : , , , ; ( ): , , , , , , , ; , , : , , , , . , , , . ? . . The World Competitiveness Yearbook . , , , , , . , . 2004 , , , , , , , , 14 . . . . -.: , 1993. 85 84. : , , , , , , , , 15 . - . . - , ( , , ) , ( ) . . , - 276 16 . 1 ( ) , 10 , , , ( , ) ( ) - ( - 24 ) , , , . Heritage 1- 17 . 15 http://www.weforum.org/ 16 http://www01.imd.ch/ 17 http://heritage.org/ 86 85. : , . MOODYS (Moodlys Investor Service, USA), Standard and Poors, IBCA (The International Bank Credit Analist, UK), JBRI (The Japan Bond Rescaerh Instutute) . Standard and Poors 1999 C 2003 B . . 2 18 1985 8.3 7.0 7.4 2.0 7.6 7.4 7.9 6.8 6.3 5.7 6.6 3.7 8.1 8.4 6.1 2.2 1991 4.6 6.1 7.9 2.1 3.0 5.6 7.1 4.9 3.4 4.4 7.0 2.6 4.0 5.6 8.3 2.0 1992 3.4 6.3 8.0 2.1 2.9 6.1 6.7 4.3 2.4 5.0 7.3 2.3 2.4 6.1 8.3 2.0 1993 3.1 6.6 8.1 2.2 3.2 6.3 7.3 4.3 2.6 5.0 7.0 5.9 2.2 6.7 8.0 2.0 1994 3.4 6.7 8.0 2.0 3.7 6.7 8.1 3.7 2.8 4.7 7.1 2.1 2.8 6.4 8.1 2.0 1995 3.3 6.1 8.1 2.0 3.4 6.4 8.4 2.9 2.6 4.7 7.7 2.0 2.6 6.1 8.7 2.0 1996 3.6 6.0 8.3 2.0 3.4 6.1 7.2 2.8 2.8 4.4 8.1 2.2 3.0 6.0 8.8 2.0 1997 3.7 6.0 8.1 2.0 3.9 6.7 7.7 2.6 2.9 4.4 7.9 2.1 3.4 6.4 8.6 2.0 : - , - , - , - . JBRI . , , . 2- . , , , , , 18 . . //. 1997, 6. 87 86. : , , 19 . , . , , , 20 , , . , . , , . , . . . - , , , - , , , , . , - , , , , . . . (, , , , , ) 19 http://www.jbri.orj/ 20 .., .. : : . 2. . , 1995. 88 87. : , - . , . , . , . . - . , , . 20 . . : , ; ; , , ; . , , . . : , , ; ; , , , , ; 89 88. : , , . , 1- . , . : ; ; ( , ..), ; . . ( , ) (, , , ) , , , . , , . . (1960- , , ), (, ), (- ) . , , . , , . , . . 90 89. : , , , , , . , . Y : : , Y , Y , 2.3.4. 21 . , , , , . . , , . , , , (public-private-partnership) 21 Regionensmarketing in Deutschland. -Aktion Munsterland e. V. -Munster, 1995. 91 90. : , . , . , , . , , , . - , , , , , , , . , . . : , , , ; ; , , 92 91. : , , ; , , , ; , ; , , ; , -, , ; , , , ; , ; , , ; , ; , ; . , . 1. . - . , 2002. 2. .., .. : : . 2. . , 1995. 3. . . //, 2000. 4. . . . . -.: , 1993. 5. . . //. 1997, 6. 6. Regionensmarketing in Deutschland. -Aktion Munsterland e. V. - Munster, 1995. 7. http://www.transparensy.orj/cpi/2004/ 8. http://www.weforum.org/ 9. http://www01.imd.ch/ 10. http://heritage.org/ 93 92. : , 11. http://www.jbri.orj/ 12. http://www.marketing.spb.ru 94 93. : , 9 . , , . , , , , . , , . , , , . , , , , , , . , . 95 94. : , , - . , , , . , , , . , SMART, SWOT , PEST, PIP . , , ? , , . : 1. - , . 2. . 3. , , , , . , -- 96 95. : , , , . , , . . , . , , , - - - , . . , , , , , , . , , , , , , , , . , , , , . 97 96. : , . , , , . : - () - ( , ) - ( ) - - - - 7 . . , . , . , . . , , , , , . . . , , , . 98 97. : , . . . , , . . . , . , . . . , . . . . , , . : 99 98. : , 5 7- . , . , , , , , , , 2002, 2003 , , . 2002 500 . . 3 , , , . 100 99. : , , . (, , , , , , , , ) . , , . , (Sky , , MCS , MSM , , , , - , , - , 33- , )- . , , , . SWOT . , : : 1. 2. 3. : 1. 2. , , . , , , , , , , 101 100. : , - 41%, - 36%, 5%, 8%, 10% . - 35%, 23%, 21% . , , , , . , . : - ; - , ; - ; - . , , , , , , , . : 102 101. : , . . 8 : , , , . - : , , - . , (), () , , , , SWOT . I. ()=(5* + 4* + 3* + 2* + 1* )/ . - ()- - 103 102. : , II. , , . , . III. , . , . (1) 21 (2) 17 (3) 14 (4) 32 (5) 31 20 . 12-15, 13-20, 14-45, 15-32, 23-15, 24-10, 25-9, 34- 16, 35-20, 45-45, 123-10, 124-21, 521 -12, 1234-31, 2453-20, 12345-14 . 5 - 183/500=36.6% . 63.14%- . 5 - . . 19 1 2 3 4 5 1 21 103 75 111 58 368 21.4 II 2 103 17 90 96 55 361 21 III 3 75 90 14 81 54 314 18.26 IV 4 111 96 81 32 79 399 23.21 I 5 58 55 54 79 31 277 16.11 V 104 103. : , 16.11% - 16.11- 63.6%- . , . IV. . ? . ? . - . : , , , . ?, ?, ? . . , . . : 1. . , . 105 104. : , 2. . . . . 3. - . . - . . : . , 2 , , . . . : 1. . 2. . : . 106 105. : , . . , (, )- : , , . : , , , , . : , . 3 . - - - . . , . : 1. 107 106. : , , , , . 2. - , , . 3. - , , , . 4. , , , . 5. , . 6. , , , , , , 7 . 7. , , , . 8. . 9. , , , , . 10. , . 108 107. : , 10 / / . . , , . , , , , , . , , . 1 1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 .* 113.0 190,0 280,6 392,7 390,8 399,8 401.5 ..** 12,0 62,0 140,0 240,5 281.9 .* 42,0 62,0 93,0 128,0 120,0 114,9 112.4 ..** 5,0 25,0 67,0 114,3 115.8 .* 5,0 21,0 52,0 115,3 121,1 125,3 119.1 / ..** 1,0 8,0 39,0 94,7 88.6 .* 2,0 7,0 15,0 27,4 28,3 29,1 30.5 ..** 0,5 3,0 5,0 11,8 14.0 .* 2,0 6,0 9,7 24,0 23,6 27,6 30.4 ..** 0,5 3,0 5,0 13,0 14.1 * . / / ** .. / / : Tourism Highlights-World Tourism Organisation, 2003 World Tourism Barometer- World Tourism Organisation, 2004-06 109 108. : , 1970 , 1990- , . 92 %- 8% . 95%- . 20 . 1995 25 . / / 2 /%/ 1995 2000 2010 2020 /%/ 1995-2020 1995 2020 565,4 687,3 1,006.4 1,561.1 4,1 100 100 20,2 27,4 47,0 77,3 5,5 3,6 5,0 108,9 128,0 190,4 282,3 3,9 19,3 18,1 / 81,4 115,3 195,2 397,2 6,5 14,4 25,4 338,4 392,7 527,3 717,0 3,0 59,8 45,9 12,4 24,0 35,9 68,5 7,1 2,2 4,4 4,2 6,1 10,6 18,8 6,2 0,7 1,2 : Tourism Highlights-World Tourism Organisation, 2003 Blueprint for new tourism-World Travel and Tourism Counsil, 2003 2020 1,56 /717 /, /397 /, /282 / . 4,1 , , , . 60 46 . 10-20 , 20 , 260 . 110 109. : , . . . . : 1. , 2. 3. : 1. . 400 . , 200 . 2. . 3. . I. 9 . , , , . II. 6 . , , , . : 111 110. : , , . , , , . - . , 64.2 . 2.10 11% 3% 64% 5% 17% - 58 . 20 , 9.4 . - 9.4 . 75 . , . - 58.02 . - , , . 112 111. : , / / 3 1 4.3 5.3 2 7.2 6.2 3 68.4 . 59.3 . 74 , 37.5 , 55.2 . 55.2 , , . : - ; : , , , . - , , , , , ; : , ; , , ; , ; ; 113 112. : , 11 . Abstract , , , . , , . , , . , , , , , , , . Report organization and structure 1. Title page: a). the subject of the report; b). the writer of the report; c). the date of the report; d). the reference number (if any). 2. Table of contents: using the same numbering systems as in the report itself 3. Summary (sometimes called Abstract) 4. Terms of reference (sometimes called Introduction) saying: 114 113. : , a). why the report was written; b) who it was written for; c) what its scope and limitations are; 5. Findings (Main part): giving the facts and evidence (NB non essential information should go in the Appendix). 6. Conclusions. 7. Recommendations. 8. Appendix (Appendices (sometimes called Annex) 9. Bibliography: giving the names of books, other reports used as references. I. COLLECTING INFORMATION Collecting information is an important stage in writing an effective report. If you want to write a good report, you must be able to use the resources that are available and decide which information is useful and which is not. 1.1. Fact and opinion. When we prepare or read a report it is important to recognize what are facts and what are opinions. The following expressions tell us that the speaker is only giving an opinion: In my opinion In my view It seems to me I feel that I have the feeling that the course is not made interesting or relevant for our staff. In my opinion it related with energy transition strategy and policy. In contrast, facts are given by evidence. In 1987 the export figures stood at 400 m Finnish markkaa. There was a sharp increase between 1987 and 1989 when figures reached over 800 m. 1.2. Precise descriptions It is important that we describe things exactly in a report. For example, The rooms floor area is 120 square metres is a precise statement but The room is rather big only gives us an opinion about the size of the room. 1.3. Reason and purpose We can express our reasons by using expressions such as because of, owing to and due to. RESULT REASON 115 114. : , The failure of the Suggestion Scheme is due to the low level of reward. -We can express purpose by using expressions such as in order to and so as to. SITUATION PURPOSE A report was made in order to assess the relative costs of photocopiers. They leased the machine so as to postpone tax payments. 1.4. Cause and effect We can link pairs of sentences to show cause and effect as follows. CAUSE EFFECT Ineffective management Poor profits Management was ineffective which resulted in/caused poor profits EFFECT CAUSE Poor profits ineffective management Poor profits resulted from / were caused by ineffective management. 1.5. Terms of reference (TOR) To write the term of reference, expressions such as in order to, so as to are commonly used. The purpose of this report is to investigate the photocopying equipment on the market in order to recommend new machines for all the NQ offices. II. USING GRAPHS AND STATISTICS Illustrations (graphs, tables and charts) can be used to make a point in the text of the report. They must always be clear, simple and relevant to the objectives of the report. 2.1. Quantity Countable (units) Not countable (mass) Barrels Many reports Oil Much information 116 115. : , Few machines Typewriters Desks Employees Little machinery Office equipment Furniture Manpower The price of oil is low because/since/ as too much oil is being produced. Salaries are high because/since/ as too few qualified employees are available. 2.2. Graph description Useful expressions: an upward trend a downward trend fluctuations to reach a peak to level off constant to remain constant to reach a plateau rapid dramatic sharp steady moderate small slight gradual increase rise go up grow sudden abrupt decrease fall drop decline As the graph shows, there was an .. in sales. In January, sales reached the peak. Sales reached a peak of 11.000. Sales remained stable/constant from September to November Sales fluctuated from May to September. Sales levelled off at about 8000 in April 2.3. Referencing illustrations 117 116. : , It is important to be clear about referencing the illustrations in the text of the report. Useful expressions: As is shown in Fig.1 The first column /row As can be seen in Table 2 Of particular note (see Fig.3) NB (nota bene = note well) The figure above/below on the left/ right 2.4. Representing numbers For numbers below ten, words are preferable to numerals. Use numerals for page numbers, dates, figures, addresses and with %. Do not use numerals for ordinate numbers. Do not use two numerals in succession. Do not use numerals at the beginning of a sentence. Do not use numerals for round number estimates. III. SELECTING AND ORGANISING THE MATERIAL When the writer has assembled all the relevant material, he or she should be able to form some opinions. It is then necessary to decide how much information is needed in the report to support these opinions. Too much information will hide the point, too little information will not convince the reader. Selection of material will be easier if the information you have assembled is well organised. Selection and organisation will also be simpler if paragraphs have suitable headings. It will also be easier to select material if the assembled information is well classified. 118 117. : , 3.1. Classification When we divide something in groups, classes, categories,etc. we are classifying those items. The classification is normally made according to a criterion or several criteria (standards or principles on which judgements are based). 3.2. Style and appropriateness You must decide whether a formal or informal style and personal or impersonal tone are appropriate. Written academic English will not normally contain contractions, hesitation fillers and familiar language. Personal pronouns I, you, we tend not to be used in more formal writing (except in letters, etc). Instead the style may be more impersonal. An introductory it or there may begin sentences or even impersonal pronoun one; passive tenses may also be used. Active: The promotion Review Panel meets and discusses each candidate. Passive: Each candidate is met and discussed. Reports are often formalised by using noun phrases. We propose to advertise externally. External advertising is proposed. We need a manager responsible for developing careers. Career development manager is needed. IV. PRESENTING FINDINGS The findings are the main part of the report. When the material has been selected and organised, you must present the findings as clearly as possible. 4.1. Impersonal reporting Here are some useful expressions for reporting meetings or discussions impersonally. Topic/subject X was discussed. X was considered Opinion Opinions varied about It was felt that 119 118. : , Different opinions were expressed about. Agreement/disagreement It was agreed that There was no agreement about Recommendation It was suggested that It was proposed that Conclusion No conclusions were reached about It was decided that 4.2. Personal reporting a) Here are some guidelines for reporting meetings personally. As for grammar, reported speech is presented. Verb changes I think the Financial Director should resign. PastPresent He said he thought the Financial Director should resign. Conditional wouldFuture will Prices will level off next year. She said that prices would level off next year. Past PerfectPast Sales reached a peak in August last year. He reported that sales had reached a peak in August last year. Question changes Use of if/whether Do you think prices will increase? He asked us if/whether we thought prices would increase. Wh -words When do you expect sales to improve? He asked us when we expected sales to improve. b) Past Perfect Tense There are two major uses: in reporting speech in reporting the distant past. distant past past present 120 119. : , previously March 1998 now Mr. Smith was appointed in March 1998. He had previously been our Chief Accountant. 4.3. Paragraphing In almost all kinds of writing the basic structural unit is the paragraph,- a sequence of the sentences organised around a single idea. While a good paragraph does contain some generalizations and abstractions, it should be supported by concrete, specific details, and examples. Y. CONCLUDING AND RECOMMENDING These two stages are connected logically. Conclusions are drawn when the findings have been analysed. Recommendations are practical courses of action based on the conclusions. YI. SUMMARISING A summary is a short statement of the content of a longer document. It can act as the introduction to a report, as an indication to the reader whether it is of interest or as a time-saver for readers who do not have time to read the whole report. YII. References 1. J. Comfort, Rod Revell, Chris Stott (1996) Business reports in English Cambridge university press 2. R.R.Jordan. 1980. Academic writing course p.p 14, 18, 42, 68 3. Milton Wohl, 1969 Techniques for writing p.p 23 4. Martin Wilson. 1997. Writing for business p.p 121 120. : , 12 , : . , . , , . . , , . Absract. The disparity of rural and urban are increasing rapidly in our country with according to labour productivity and GDP per capita. Past years we can see from the survey that the increasing of rural-urban migration, also population and capital centralization are being acted intensively. Today`s process of population and capital centralization e.g. a negative effect are dominating in both parts of rural and urban. We stae that the basic trend of solving this problem will be a regionalization. : , , , , Key words: divergence, rural-urban disparity, migration, regionalization. ? ( ?) . . . , , . 122 121. : , . 1966- 1990 , , , 1 7%- . 2%- . inputs ( , , .) . , , ./12/ . . . 2003 , . (0,735), (0,705), - (0,677) . . . , . . , ( ) (MPK1) ( ) (MPK2) (MPK1< MPK2) . . . . . . 123 122. : , - . , , . , .(1999 , ) . , , . . 1995 2003 8 1.3 . . 4.6%- . , , - . , , . . , . . , . (1998) , () . . . . 1999-2003 , , , 124 123. : , 3 1999 18328 42,7% , 51% , , 2003 26552 61% , 67 % , , . 8224, 8470- . 4 . , ( ) . . . (1994) , . ku +kR(1+v) . : Ku- , , KR- , , V- 2002 94% [1]. . , . , ( ) . . . . 1999-2003 , , , 1- . 125 124. : , 1. 1999-2003 , , , 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 209838 215503 221914 254222 290207 , , 263725 263061 273871 306175 350732 549834 545929 558440 564606 575806 813559 808990 832311 870781 926538 (1995 .) 291295 315120 345250 361510 390980 , , 341933 388079 390244 431147 472916 283977 250934 248769 233721 229505 625910 639013 639013 664868 702421 1 (.) 1388,2 1462,3 1555,7 1422 1347,2 , , 1296,6 1475,2 1424,9 1408,2 1348,4 516,5 459,6 445,4 413,9 398,5 769,3 789,9 767,7 763,5 758,1 1 (.) 383,2 400,7 424,9 427,1 437,6 , , 373,7 409,7 400,3 426,2 448,3 194,7 171,8 169,5 159,7 158,4 263,7 265,4 261,6 268,6 280,5 : 2002, 2003 2003 , . 1999 , 2.5:1 2003 3.4:1 .(1999 - 1999 ) 2000-2002 - . . , , , . , . 1999-2003 , . 2000 , 2000 5 ( ) 75357 . 2000-2003 103481 126 125. : , ( 2). . . 2- . . . 2. 2000-2003 , 2000 2001 2002 2003 19558 18730 26344 38851 , , 24088 18787 27408 33749 -23537 -17473 -25573 -34866 : 2002, 2003 . . , . , . . , (2000) . 4 , 5 , 30 . 85%, 40%-53% . [11]. . . 2002-2003 - 126000 70,9% ( , ) [9]. - 1999 - 13,0% [5]. 127 126. : , . , , . , . . , . . . , , . ? . , , . , . 1. , 1990-2002 2. . , 2001 3. ., ., . ., 2001 4. . ., 2000 5. 2003 6. ., . 2000 7. - 2002 8. , 2000 . 2001 9. , 2002-2003 2004 10. 1997-2003 11. 2004, 28-29- 12. Alwyn Young The tyranny of numbers Journal of economics. Aug 1995 13. Gupta, Manash Foreign capital, income inequality and welfare in a harris-Todaro model Journal of development economics. 1994 14. Simmie, James Innovate or stagnate: Economic planning choices for local production nodes in the global economy Planning practice and research. Feb 98 128