Eco Energy Update: Programs, Technology, Economics

Eco Farm Day 25 February 2012

Chris Weissflog BSc, MSc, MBA

CanSIA, RASDT, RHDT

EcoGen Energy Inc, Kemptville

Agenda

• Context

• Renewables

• Incentive Programs and Economics

• The Passive House Method

• Ultra-Efficient Eco-Home Project

Energy Prices: 1990 to 2006

Average Consumer Energy Pricing - 1990 to 2006

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Year

Unleaded

Gasoline

Home

Heating

Oil

Natural

Gas

5 Year Annual Rate:

•Unleaded: 7.00%

•Heating Oil: 7.65%

•Natural Gas: 7.20%

Energy Prices: 1990 to 2012

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Unleaded

Propane

Poly. (Unleaded)

Poly. (Propane)

Energy Prices: Outlook

• Ontario MEI, Electricity Prices:

– Next 5 yr: 7.9% increase per year (= 46%)

– Next 20 yr: 3.5% average increase (=100%)

• Petroleum (analyst prediction):

– $150/barrel in 2012 (+50%, temporary?)

• Natural Gas: prices have fallen!

– 2006: 57.7 ₵/m3

– 2012: 36.3 ₵/m3

Conventional Energies:

Costs & Carbon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Natural Gas Oil Propane Electricity

Cost ($/MWh)

Conventional Energies - Cost per MWh

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Tonnes GHG

Natural Gas Oil Propane Electricity

Conventional Energies - Tonnes GHG per MWh

Approach to Energy

• Conservation 1st

• Efficiency 2nd

• Generation (renewable) Last

Renewable Energy

Generation

• 1,000 watts per m2

Solar Resources

1m x 1m

Average Daily Energy in Collector Plane

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

kW

h / m

2 / d

ay

• Heat fresh or re-

circulated air

• Process heat (crop

drying)

• Rapidly Developing:

– Building cladding

– Passive cooling

– PV / Thermal (“PV/T”)

Solar Air Heating

• Homemade solar wall

• 12’ x 30’

• 33% to 50% heat

Example: Allan’s Tool Shed

Solar Water Heating

• Pre-heat system

• Proven technology

• Different from Solar

Electric - turns sunlight

into heated water

• The most cost-effective

solar energy system

• Solar Fraction

Solar Water Heating

Energy Production

Solar Thermal Systems Integration

Energy Production

Available for Other Use (Pool? Other?)

Space and Water Heating Energy Need

Water Heating Energy Need

Electricity from the Sun

Photovoltaic – PV:

• Very long life

• Virtually no servicing

• On or Off-Grid applications

• Peak production matches peak grid demand

Electricity from the Sun

• Off-Grid: good

complement to PV

– Typically 1kW to 10 kW

• Primary factor: wind

resource

• Larger = better economies

Small Wind Turbines

Wind Resource at 30m AGL

Wind: Economics of Size

Size kW 1 10 80 250 850 1650 2750

Height m 18 30 30 50 50 80 100

Cost $ $8K $70K $250K $750K $3M $5M $6.5M

Energy Output MWh

Yr

1 8 79 378 1330 3771 4690

Lifetime Yrs 10 15 18 20 25 25 25

Cost/kWh $/kWh 72¢ 59¢ 18¢ 7¢ 10¢ 5¢ 6¢

Simple Payback Yrs 64 68 28 12 18 12 12

Cost of Energy by Turbine Size

1

10

80250 850

1650 2750$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000Turbine Size (kW)

Co

st

pe

r k

Wh

Q&A

Biomass

• Forest & Agriculture sources

• Agriculture:

– Energy crops (switchgrass, reed

canarygrass)

– Crop residues (straw & stalks)

– Potentially better revenue from marginal

lands vs beef

• OPG sourcing?

Biogas

• Anerobic biodigester

• 100kW – 500kW, or larger

• 100 - 400 milkers, or larger

• CHP: Electricity & Heat output!

• Useful, safe, clean, odourless nutrient

• CO2 20:1 less GHG than methane

• Factors:

– Sources of additional feedstock (FOG)

– Electric service capacity

Biogas

Market Developments,

Incentives & Economics

Market Developments

• Solar Thermal: – No significant change in technology or pricing

– Broader technological penetration into NA (USA)

– Canada: marginal incentives, negligible

demand, fewer businesses selling & supporting

• PV: – Rapid increase in global production & innovation

– Dramatic international price drop on PV cells

– Dramatic increase in supply options in Ontario

– Impact: ROI changes, system optimization

nuances, closer to “grid-parity” (2017?)

Market Developments

• Wind: – Foreign companies manufacturing in Canada

– “Go big or go home”: primarily big wind projects

in areas of good wind conditions

• Biomass: – OPG biomass demand seems to have stalled

• Biogas: – Range of biogas developers / manufacturers in

Ontario

Efficiency Incentives

• ecoENERGY Retrofit Incentive for

Buildings Cancelled

• OPA / saveONenergy / HPNCP (incl

retrofits) – Up to $400 per saved kW / $60 per appliance

• OPA / saveONenergy / Retrofit

Program – Up to $800 per saved kW / 10₵ per kWh saved in

first year

Efficiency Incentives

• COFSP – Growing Forward

Environmental & Climate Change

Initiative – Category 26: Energy Conservation Measures

– For conservation or renewable energy

generation

– Up to $5K, up to 30%

– 2012 funds allocated – no more money!

• Enbridge – One-Time Retrofit – Up to $100K @ 10₵ /m3 saved in first year

– Consulting support available

Renewable Energy Incentives

• ecoENERGY Renewable Heat

Cancelled

• Ontario Solar Thermal Heating

Incentive Cancelled

Renewable Energy Incentives

• OPA / saveONenergy / Retrofit

Program (business only) – Solar water heating eligible if water heated by

electricity

• $320/m2 collector area x Performance Factor

• Typically 25% to 35% of project cost

• Result: 6-10 year payback

– Solar air heating

• Up to $800 per saved kW / 10₵ per kWh saved in first

year

• Assessed on case-by-case basis

Renewable Energy Incentives

• Enbridge (when asked about

incentives for solar water heating):

“While we do not have any programs that

apply in this case at the moment, I think that

we may be looking at these programs very

soon.

For a quick answer, technically we do not have

a program that would help in this case, but the

long answer is "check back in a month or two

and my answer could very well change".”

Renewable Energy Incentives

• OPA Feed-In Tariff

– Program under review, frozen since

September 2011

– Demand at standstill – lay-offs, folded

businesses, internationals pulled back

– PV:

• CanSIA recommendations available on web

• Announcement expected March 2012

• Tariffs unknown, probably about 25% lower

• May be new categories, new rules of

participation, quotas, RFP for larger projects

Renewable Energy Incentives

• Imminent MOL interim ruling on PV

labour: electricians only

• Impact:

– reduced availability

– increased cost (add approx. 3%-5%)

• Final ruling to follow IBEW Labour Board

challenge

Renewable Energy - Economics

• Solar Water Heating:

– 6 to 10 year payback with electric water

heating

• Solar Air Heating:

– 5 to 10 year payback

– Potential incentive if heating with

electricity

• Wind:

– Outside the reach of most

Biogas - Economics

• OMAFRA / BSFAP

– Feasibility study ≤ $35K

– Construction & Implementation • Each ≤ $400K, ≤ 40%

• 100kW, 100x milkers:

– $750K - $300K = $400K installed

– $133K / yr (@16¢/kWh)

• 500kW, 300x milkers:

– $2M - $400K = $1.6M installed

– $667K / yr (@16¢/kWh)

• Significant Operating Costs

• ~7 year payback / 20 year contract

Passive House

What is “Passive House”?

• Design methodology and standard from

Germany (“Passivhaus”)

• Not “passive solar”, but inclusive of it

• As prescribed set of energy performance

criteria (heating, cooling, consumption

maximums)

• Performance modeling software tool

• Certification process

• Adopted & adapted in various countries

• Estimated 100,000 PH buildings in Europe

• Driving new European building codes

Passive House Characteristics

• Super-insulation:

– Walls ~R70

– Ceiling ~R100

– Floor ~R60

• Attention to thermal bridge details!

• Extreme airtightness: <=0.6 ACH50

• Highest performance windows:

– R values

– Solar Heat Gain Coefficients

• Highest efficiency heat recovery

• Shading, thermal mass

Passive House Examples

Passive House Performance

• No “furnace”- just a small heat source

• Comfort:

– max ΔT = 4°C (windows); even temps

– no drafts / forced air currents

– 50% RH year-round

• Heating: 1.5 kWh/ft2 / year

– Example: 2,000 ft2 house*

• <3,000 kWh = <$420 electricity / <$120 Natural Gas

• Low maintenance costs

• Minimized carbon emissions

• Positive NPV (vs “code” home)

Ultra-Efficient Eco-Home

Project

Ultra-Efficient Eco-Home

• Passive House –Optimized for “Resiliency”

• Integrated solar thermal with seasonal energy

storage:

– Highest COP / lowest energy consumed to heat

– On-site heat generation = thermal independence

– Extra thermal energy for other selective functions:

• extended growing season for home-scale agriculture

• alternative: pool heating

• High thermal mass

• Hydronic radiant heating

• Grid-Interactive (net metered / off-grid back-up)

• MicroFIT (revenue generation) / cost-neutralizer

• Virtual zero risk from energy inflation

Ultra-Efficient Eco-Home

Energy Production

Available for Storage & Other Use

Space and Water Heating Energy Need

Water Heating Energy Need

Eco-Home: Benefits

• Comfort

• Cost-neutral (over time)

• Zero emissions

• Low energy consumption

• Energy resilience

• Food resilience

• Reduced complexity: simple systems, simple

maintenance

• Virtual independence