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ECO 120 Macroeconomics
Week 10
Unemployment &Inflation LecturerDr. Rod Duncan
Topics• Definition of unemployment.• Types of unemployment.• Costs of unemployment.
• Definition of inflation.• Types of inflation.• Impacts of inflation.
• Relationship between unemployment and inflation- the Phillips Curve.
Unemployment
A person becomes unemployed if he or she is a:
•Job loser
•Job leaver
•New entrant or re-entrant into the labour force
He or she is no longer unemployed if:
•Hired or recalled
•Withdraws from the labour force
Population
Labour Force
Employed /
Unemployed
Labour Force Participation
Rate
Unemployment Rate
Working age population
Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR)
Proportion of country’s population that takes part in its economic activities directly (either actually taking part or willing to)
Labour Force / Working Age Population( ) X 100
LFPR In Australia, in September 2003 :
( 10.237 million / 15.955 million ) x 100 = 64.2 %
Unemployment Rate (UR)
Proportion of country’s labour force that is unemployed.
Number Unemployed / Labour Force( ) X 100
UR in Australia, in September 2003 :
(0.591 million / 10.237 million) x 100 = 5.8%
Unemployment over the Business Cycle (1965- 1995)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Change in GDP
Unemployment
Labour Force Participation by Sex at Ages 35-44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1994 1995
Par
tici
pati
on r
ate
(%)
Females
Males
Unemployment Analysis - Australia : June 1979 - September 2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
SEP
.197
9
MA
Y.1
980
JAN
.198
1
SEP
.198
1
MA
Y.1
982
JAN
.198
3
SEP
.198
3
MA
Y.1
984
JAN
.198
5
SEP
.198
5
MA
Y.1
986
JAN
.198
7
SEP
.198
7
MA
Y.1
988
JAN
.198
9
SEP
.198
9
MA
Y.1
990
JAN
.199
1
SEP
.199
1
MA
Y.1
992
JAN
.199
3
SEP
.199
3
MA
Y.1
994
JAN
.199
5
SEP
.199
5
MA
Y.1
996
JAN
.199
7
SEP
.199
7
MA
Y.1
998
JAN
.199
9
SEP
.199
9
MA
Y.2
000
JAN
.200
1
SEP
.200
1
MA
Y.2
002
JAN
.200
3
SEP
.200
3
Une
mpl
oym
ent
rate
(%
)
Aged 15-19 looking for full-time work
Aged 20 & over seeking full-time work
Total Unemployment
Types of Unemployment
Cyclical unemploymentFrictional (or search) unemploymentStructural (technological) unemployment
Cyclical Unemployment
Associated with the ups and downs of the business cycle
• Takes place due to insufficient aggregate demand or total spending- reflects shifts in AD curve.
• High during recessions and low during booms.• Fiscal and monetary policies can reduce
cyclical unemployment - policies are relevant.
Frictional Unemployment
Associated with the period of time in which people are searching for jobs,
being interviewed and waiting to commence duties.
•It is inevitable and always exist•Fiscal and monetary policies can not reduce frictional unemployment – macroeconomic policies are irrelevant.•Policies that make it easier to find new jobs will affect frictional unemployment.
Structural Unemployment
Associated with wider structural or technological changes in the economy that may make some jobs
redundant.• It is inevitable and always exist• Lasts longer than frictional unemployment• Fiscal and monetary policies can not reduce
structural unemployment – macroeconomic policies are irrelevant.
• Policies that encourage workers to retrain skills or to move to a new area with more jobs will decrease structural unemployment.
Full Employment• Full employment means when all productive resources in the
economy are in full use - implies no cyclical unemployment - still frictional and structural unemployment exist - they can be low - but can never be zero.
• The full-employment rate of unemployment is called the natural rate of unemployment
• equals the sum of frictional and structural unemployment• cyclical unemployment = zero
• Domestic output consistent with the natural rate of unemployment is potential output or full employment level of GDP
Other Employment Issues
• Part-time employment - very high in Australia in recent years.
• Discouraged workers or the “hidden unemployed”
• Those who become discouraged and drop out of the labour force temporarily - would return if a suitable job prospect arose
• Discourage workers, participation rate and the unemployment rate
Cost of Unemployment• Economic cost
• output foregone, measured in terms of the loss of potential GDP - Okun’s law quantifies the relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP gap - for every 1% of unemployment (over the natural rate) 3.5% of GDP loss in Australia.
• Underemployment• High budget costs
• Social Costs• Increase in crime rate, abuse etc.• Physical & mental illness• Unlikely to develop work ethics
Classical Employment Theory
Economy always operates under full employment - it is automatic and self sustaining - if there is any
unemployment that is only temporaryPrice-wage flexibility
the assumption that all prices, including wages and interest rates, are flexible and will, rapidly adjust to remove disequilibria
Classical theory and laissez fairethe price system ensured that price-wage flexibility and fluctuations in the interest rate was capable of maintaining full employment
AD-AS in the Classical Theory
•Vertical aggregate supply curveexclusively determines level of real domestic output
•Stable down-sloping aggregate demandexclusively determines price level
P1
Q1
P2
Pri
ce L
evel
Real Domestic Output
ASLR = AS
AD1
AD2
Classical View of Unemployment
Keynesian View of AD - AS
•Full employment is not automatic - unemployment exists for longer periods - the Great Depression of the 1930s - sticky wages and prices.•Horizontal aggregate supply curve during recession - ‘recessionary’ or ‘Keynesian’ range
Change in AD impacts on unemployment - not on price level.•Once the full employment level is reached - vertical AS curve - change in AD affects price level only.•Unstable aggregate demand - especially investment demand management and stabilisation policies by the government are essential
P1
Q1
Pri
ce L
evel
Real Domestic Output
ASLR
AD1
AD2
Q2
Keynesian View of Unemployment
AS
Inflation
• We measure the general price level through a price index such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Inflation is a continuous rise in the general price level
InflationInflationraterate
Current year index - Previous yearCurrent year index - Previous year indexindex
Previous year indexPrevious year index
x 100100=
Inflation in Australia (1970-2003)
-202468
1012141618
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Types of Inflation
• Demand-Pull Inflation
• Cost-Push Inflation
Demand-Pull Inflation• Occurs when an increase in AD pulls up the price level• Excess demand for output - increase in AD - AD shifts rightward -
AS does not change in the short run - movement along the AS curve - price level increases - GDP increases
• In the longer run, workers will realise their real wages have fallen and will demand and receive increased nominal wages - lower profit level - supply decreases - causing the AS to shift to the left - GDP declines - price level increases further - only inflation
• May be caused by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies - can be cured by contractionary policies.
P2
AD2
An increase inAn increase inaggregateaggregatedemand....demand....
Increases the priceIncreases the pricelevel and outputlevel and outputin the short runin the short run
o
P1
AS1
ASLR
AD1
aa
Q1
Pri
ce L
evel
Real GDP
Demand-Pull Inflation - Short run
bb
P3cc
A decrease inA decrease inaggregateaggregatesupply....supply....
Increases the priceIncreases the pricelevel and outputlevel and output
returns to originalreturns to originallevellevel
P2
AD2
o
P1
AS1
ASLR
AD1
aa
Q1
Pri
ce L
evel
Real GDP
Demand-Pull Inflation - Long run
bb
Q2
Cost-Push Inflation• Occurs when an increase in the cost of production at
each price level shifts the AS curve leftward resulting in increased prices
• Short-run: Increased prices and decreased real output (and more unemployment)
• Wage push : increase in wage rate - power of trade unions
• Supply shocks - increase in prices of major raw materials - oil etc.
• Profit push : increase in profit requirement of large monopoly businesses.
P2
bb
o
P1
AS1
ASLR
AD1
aa
Cost-pushinflation occurswhen aggregate
supply shifts left....Causing a higher
price level
Q1
Pri
ce L
evel
Real GDP
Cost-Push Inflation
AS2
Cost-Push Inflation and Demand Management • Government intervention (AD): If
government intervenes to increase AD an inflationary spiral will result
• No Government intervention (AD): If government does not intervene to increase AD severe recession will result, however nominal wages will eventually decline and will restore AS to original position
P2
bb
o
P1
AS1
ASLR
AD1
aa
Q1
Pri
ce L
evel
Real GDP
Cost-Push Inflation
AS2
An attempt toincrease AD
will only furtherincrease theprice level
P3 cc
Q2
Stagflation• Simultaneous experience of high and increasing
unemployment and inflation - cost-push inflation.• Caused by :
• Aggregate supply shocks such as severe increases in fuel costs, and devaluations
• Productivity decline• Inflationary expectations and wages -
expectations about the likely future path and rate of increase of the general price level
Types of Inflation in Australia
• 1973-74 : Cost push - caused by international oil price rise.
• 1979 : cost-push - caused by international oil price rise.
• 1981-82 : cost push - caused by rapidly rising wages.
In early 1993, RBA announced its policy of inflation targeting - 2% - 3% a year - initially caused a recession & rise in unemployment
Impacts of Inflation • Anticipated (expected) and unanticipated
(unexpected) inflation.• Anticipated inflation is not a big problem -
economy adjusts automatically.• Unanticipated inflation redistributes income
between :• employers and employees• lenders and borrowers
Phillips Curve• Suggests an inverse relationship (or a trade-off) between inflation
and the unemployment rate• Named after A W Phillips who originally discovered the
relationship between unemployment and nominal wages, using British data in 1950s.
• In general, inflation is associated with economic expansion and unemployment with economic recession.
• During expansion : the greater the rate of growth of AD - inflation is high - unemployment is low.
• During recession : the slower the rate of growth of AD - inflation is low - unemployment is high.
Ann
ual r
ate
of in
flatio
n(p
erce
nt)
Unemployment rate (percent)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
01 2 3 4 5 6 7
The Phillips Curve
Implications of Phillips Curve
• Trade-off suggests : a rise in inflation should lead to a decline in unemployment, and vice versa.
• In general, both can not be brought down to the minimum level.
• The society must make a choice between low inflation and low unemployment.
Phillips Curve in Australia
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
1970
1977
2003
1983
1993
Shifting Phillips Curve
• The smooth relationship may not be valid in the long-run - Conflicts with the trade-offs embodied in the Phillips Curve
• Vertical Phillips Curve - at full employment level, only price level changes
• Simultaneous high and increasing unemployment and inflation - may lead to shifts in the curve