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ECFA簽訂後台灣經濟 ECFA簽訂後台灣經濟 的機會與挑戰 的機會與挑戰 海峽交流基金會董事長 海峽交流基金會董事長 江丙坤博士 2011年元月72011年元月7

Ecfa簽訂後台灣經濟

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  • 1. ECFA 20117

2. - 3. 1.20101138,546948.959.2%948 959 2%20101182,788517.51515(2010.11) () ()(%)38,546948.8659.2 1,122 1 12235.3935 39 2.22 2 1,978138.848.7 9,164 659.81* 5,041 5 041122.58122 587.77 7 16013.88 0.9 2,425280.4817.5 *20103 (2010.12.22)311 4. 2.2010(111)41.8%11.5%340.511 5% 340 514.9%708.8 708.8216.3% 1989199920092010(111) 240.7 36.3 308.8 25.4 836.9 41.1 1049.3 41.8 109.4 109 4 16.5 16 5 284.5 284 5 23.4 23 4 301.5 301 5 14.8 14 8 377.6 377 615.115 1 90.813.7 199.4 16.4 235.5 11.6 287.611.5*70.9 70 910.7 10 7 139.8 139 8 11.5 11 5 225.8 225 8 11.1 11 1 265.5 265 510.610 6** 55.08.3 119.1 9.8 145.0 7.1 166.06.6 96.114.5 164.1 13.5 292.0 14.3 362.114.4* **2010.12.7) 2 5. 3.WTO 2009 979.1 8.1%330.3 o 2000 386.2 2000o27.4%416.5217.316.7% 1.4 2000 2009521.02208 20.9%20 9% 18.4%18 4% 297.5 1434 2009 2009836.9235.541.1% 11.6% 581.42009 54 0 54.0 362.2o20.8%217.2 2000 2000371.3355.924.4% 23.4% 285.4 103.23 6. 4. 1998 3.47 3 47 6.766 763.953 95 2.12 2 12-3.29 3 290.88 0 88 4.174 171999 5.97 2.703.27-0.03 3.27 5.70 2.432000 5.80 5.653.03 2.46 0.15 9.01 8.862001-1.651 65 -6.21 6 21 0.620 62-4.594 594.564 56-4.734 73 -9.29 9 292002 5.26 2.842.12 1.11 2.42 5.81 3.392003 3.67 2.371.85 0.31 1.30 5.53 4.232004 6.19 6 19 7.347 343.273 27 4.01 4 01-1.15 1 158.86 8 8610.01 10 012005 4.70 1.851.81 0.28 2.86 4.86 2.002006 5.44 0.950.92 0.59 4.49 7.34 2.852007 5.98 5 98 1.341 341.231 23 0.24 0 24 4.654 65 6.49 6 49 1.851 852008 0.73-2.11 -0.53-2.62 2.84 0.61-2.232009-1.93-3.170.61-2.52 1.25-6.13-7.382010f9.98 9 98 8.018 011.981 98 3.76 3 76 1.971 9715.9615 9613.98 13 98(2010.11.18)4 7. 51389.829.0%(2010.111)708.8216.3 708 8 216 3(2010.111) 2010.1 111049.341.8%(2010.111)340.514.9%(2010.111)948.959.2%( 948 9 59 2%(201011)5 8. 1.(1)1991.3.9(( )( )12.16()(2)1992 ( )(3)1993.4.27(4)1998.10.1419 19991999 6 9. 2.200542956) 7 10. 3.2008(1)( )1)2)2) 3) (2) Modus Vivendi Modus Vi endi 8 11. (3) (3)1)2)3)4)405)6)6) 7)7) 9 12. 1.15 1836(2008.06.13) 36(2008.11.4) 108 108 270(370(2009.04.26))20096 (2009.12.22) 20109ECFA 20109ECFA(ECFA) (2010.06.29) 201111(2010.12.21)3000400010 13. 2.(1) (2010)11097.9( 3221)110.4%2010 111504151( ( 3419) 2009 20101-10 966,963 ,231.5% 1,301,010, ,73.4%4,474,019 , ,73,35352.2% 65,051 4.7% 1,214,791155,137 117.0% 189,314 63.4%754,78966,52929.9% 58,374 8.8% 458,048 601,754 568.4% 979,066 110.4% 1,939,761 17,38815.9% 9,376-30.0% 106,63711 14. 2008 20092010 612112 16() 32.85 74.37109.3 216.52 2 65 13 102.63 135.86 105.67343.59(49)91 45(185 ) 10 182803232615.5831.94 22.4769.99 363 (743)523(1,629)658.1 12 15. 3 () 20106 1,387 1 387 76.06 76 061,5261 526 2011 595473.761,049 201216 3,456 264.04 3,802 2013 4 1,013 124.17 1,11431 6,810,538.03 7,491 ,200820131,20013 16. (2)1) 370 8 () ( ) 33 20101245 22.3% 2008.7.4 2008.12.14859 336,271 85.3%2008.12.152008.12.152009.8.30 4,091 4 0911,709,0331 709 033 81.0%81 0%2009.8.31 2010.11.21 2010 11 21 18,571 6,700,000 77.8%14 17. 2)482()66201063% 2008.12.15 236 29,99170.9%2009.8.302009.8.31 1,045 154,475 76.2% 2010.11.2115 18. (3)1)112)633)2010628TEU14.5%92TEU14.6% 2008.12.151994261 13,69713 697 331TEU 15,88015 880 2010.11.3096 16 19. 3.(1)(2008.6.30)(2)(2008.6.19)(3)(2008.8.1) 8500 860% 60(4)(4) (2008.6.26) 0.410(2008.9.12)(2008 9 12) 17 20. (5)(2008.7.31)(QDII)(2008.12.4)(QDII)(2008 12 4)(2009.5.29)(2009.5.29)(6)(MOU)(2009.11.16)(2010.3.16) (2010 3 16)( )(7)6428(129) 11(129)11(8)11(2010.2.26)18 21. 1.ECFA ECFA( ) ECFA() ECFA (( ) () ( ) 19 22. 2.(2010.9.12)WTOWTO 66 20 23. ( ) 21 24. 3.(1)(2011.1.1330) () () () () 8859.44 423.29 136 15.88 221.16 107 11.43 11 43 694.744 74 501.48 174.09 140 49.97 117 15.30 180.16 539138.38 267 28.581.(18)3(1)(2)(3)2.17() 22 25. (2)813 1. 1.(2.3.3 )1102.20101114.( 3.20101028) 4.4 5.5. 1.1 1.1 2.(2.2) 3.201111 3.3 4.4 4. 5.()6.6 23 26. 4.WTOECFA () (FTA)GATT24 1.62.3. WTO 6 GATS5 6 ECFA 24 27. HS8 HS8 969 268 () 1584 615 2634 () :25934293 :19633782341 56608726 5824 7142 148236 6629(76%)(1)2097(24%)(2) (3) 25 28. 5.ECFA(1)2010 4.39%4.72%6.14%8.24% 4 39% 4 72% 6 14% 8 24% 9.98%21(2011) ECFA ECFA 5% 2010(f)2011(f) Q1rQ2r Q3p Q4f Q1fQ2f Q3f Q4f% (f)9.9813.5912.86 9.804.704.513.094.27 4.775.743.43 3.02 4.324.481.963.51 4.12 3.533.16 3.230.88 2.91 1.330.35 -0.570.84 0.37 1.092.11-0.1531.9131 91 42.2942 2939.22 39 22 34.28 34 28 15.92 15 922 76 -2.761 63 -1.631.631 63 6 75-6.753 49-3.499.08-1.6830.91 -0.467.13 -3.26 -6.38 -10.38 5.13-1.67-1.18 -12.527.93 -5.692.84 -3.14 -3.20 -7.153.34-4.99 24.35 39.1132.89 20.10 10.99 6.206.444.84 5.408.13 27.37 49.3234.04 22.80 10.94 2.443.511.98 0.863.54(2010.11.18) 26 29. 20101210.31 10.29.989.89.64108.918 91 9.32 9 328.9 86.5 6 4.724.664.73 4.9 4.21 3.73.5 4 2 0 IMF GI ADB27 30. 20122015ECFAIMF20122015 2012 2015 8%6 4.94.95 54.694 4 .3 7 3 4 .334 .2 824 .2 82 4 .3 2 4 .2 14 .1 4 .2 1 4 .0 1 4 .0 83 .9 823 .9 60 2012 2013 2014 2015IMF(2010.10.7)28 31. (2) 2009201011 2010 5,2002,7002,450 5 200 2 7002 450 ECFA 2007 2008 20092010 (1~6) 171817 16 24671.76 10.1 2556 1.593.61 20371.63 -20.3 20.3 1319 1.85 49.1 9. %% % %%%% % 181818 17 21931.53 8.22404 1.469.62 17451.38 -27.3 1200 1.66 64.8 %% % % % %% %WTO 29 32. (3)BERI 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BERI 66554 IMD 17 18 13 238 WEF13 14 17 12 1347 58 61 46 3330 33. -1.1 31 34. - 2. -10- - WTO + APEC FTA WTOECFA APECFTAAP32 35. -3.ECFA(1)ECFA ECFA 33 36. (2).25%17%50%10% 1232.ECFA ECFA 34