1. ECFA 98 10 24

2. (ECFA) 3. 4.

• ( ) 2

• 10 1999 361.8 2008 1,324.6 3.7

10 ( ) 5. ( )

• 10 8.5

• 2008 106.9 70.5 1991 2008 755.6

10 6.

• 30 GDP 9.8

• 2008 GDP 7.3 3 PPP ( ) 11.5 2 2 1

• 2008 14,286 8.9 2 11,331 6.9 3

10 IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2009 WTO 7. ( 1) 10 (BEA)

• 1999 4.6 2008 10.0

• 1999 19.5 2008 162.9 8

8. ( 2)

2002 2008 2007 4 2003 1 2008 14.62 (2) 21.66 (1) 20.18 (1)10.99 (2) 5.48 (5) 9.19 (4) 14.71 (2)7.02 (5) 9.56 (4) 15.98 (2) 28.54 (1)17.54 (1) 9.

1

( 3) IMF,Regional Economic Outlook Asia and Pacific , April 2008 10.

( 4)

( )

( ) ( & ) ( ) 1. 2 2. ( 1 ) 1. 2. ( 1 ) 1. 2. 1/5 12.0 39.0 17.7 11.

Global Insight 2009 2.2 0.55

2.2 1.5 2.5 1.5 -4.4 5.0 4.0 -0.9 4.4 2.8 0.5 4.4 3.5 -0.7 5.1 3.9 -0.6 5.1 1.5 -7.5 5.6 1.5 -7.5 5.6 3.6 -1.0 2.2 1.2 -1.9 2.2 4.1 -3.3 1.1 3.7 -4.5 1.1 6.4 5.4 7.3 7.0 5.6 6.1 3.7 -4.1 0.1 4.3 -4.1 0.1 7.3 6.2 7.6 6.8 4.1 5.7 ( ) 9.0 8.5 9.0 10.1 8.1 9.0 0.3 -4.2 0.7 0.8 -3.9 0.6 1.7 -5.4 -0.7 1.0 -6.1 -0.7 0.4 3.0 2008 IMF 1.5 3.1 2010(f) -2.5 -2.2 2009(f) Global Insight ( ) -2.7 2.0 0.4 -1.1 2.5 2.0 2009(f)2010(f) 2008 12. ( )

13.

8,000 40

98.6.30

98.4.26

(98.6.30 )

(97.8.1 )

14. ( )

97.8.1 500 60% ( )

98.6.30

1 64

117 ( )11

15

15. (ECFA) 16. ( )

FTA

(GCC)

(ECFA) 17.

FTA

( ) 18.

( )ECFA 19.

( )ECFA ( ) HS 1 8 20.

( )ECFA 21.

( ) ECFA 22.

( ) ( )

GTAP 7.0 2009.06 ECFA 28,004.73 1,757.90 7,710.90 1.42 6.95 4.87 1.65 28,884.20 ( ) 1,779.40 ( ) 7,771.00 ( ) 1.41 ( ) 7.07 ( ) 4.99 ( ) 1.72 GDP( ) 23.

• ( 14.6 ) ( 14.3 ) ( 15.8 ) ( 7.9 ) ( 7.7 )

• (0.71 0.58 )

• 25.7~26.3

( ) 24.

• • 2007 763 15 20 18 6.17 38 380

• 10

ECFA 25.

ECFA ( 1) 26.

ECFA ( 2) 27.

ECFA ( 3) 28.

ASEAN

ASEAN

( )

ECFA ( 4) 29. ECFA ECFA ECFA ECFA ECFA

ECFA 30. ( ) 31.

( ) 32.

( ) 33.

6 ECFA

98 3

34. 35. IC ( ) IC IC ( ) ( ) ( ) 36. (1) ( ) ( ) 006688 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2) ( ) ( ) K ( ) ( ) (3) ( ) ( ) (5) ( ) ( ) (4) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 37. ( ) (1) (2) (3)

38. (1) (2) (3) (4)

(MIT)

(MIT)

( ) 39. 40. 41.