Eastern Great Basin July October, 2014 Fire Potential Outlook
Shelby Law EGBCC Predictive Services Meteorologist
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Contents Current Fire Danger Observed Fire Occurrence/Fire
Behavior July Weather/Fire Potential Forecast August Weather/Fire
Potential Forecast September/October Fire Potential Forecast
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Current Fire Danger Fuel Moisture Fuel Loading Recent Weather
Trends
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Recent Weather Trend Temperatures for the past 30 days have
been near to slightly below normal over the north and normal to
slightly above normal across the south. The overall weather pattern
has been fairly progressive recently, with periods of hot and dry
followed by periods of cool and wet, mainly over the north. The
most significant weather anomaly for the past 30 days was the
extremely dry air mass that spread over the area at the end of May
and into the first half of June. This dry air hastened the drying
of live fuels across much of the Eastern Great Basin. Sagebrush
values quickly plummeted from near normal in mid-May to near record
lows by mid- June. These low values have stabilized somewhat going
into July but are still below normal for the time of year. Drought
conditions have changed little over the past month with moderate to
severe drought continuing across much of Utah and the AZ Strip. The
drought is expected to improve through the summer months over Utah
as the El Nino develops. The drought is a little worse along the
Snake River Plain in Idaho with a bulls-eye of extreme drought over
south central Idaho.
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Recent Weather Trend Temperature Departure from Average
Precipitation Percent of Average 6/01/2014 - 6/30/2014
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Drought Monitor and Outlook Drought MonitorDrought Outlook
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Energy Release Component Southwest IDWestern Wyoming Northwest
UT Southwest UT
Fuel Moisture 1000-hr Western Idaho Mtns Southern Utah
Mtns
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Fuel Loading Grasses The 2014 grass crop is close to normal
across Idaho and northern Utah. West central and southwest Utah
have a below normal grass crop Southeast Utah has a normal to above
normal fuel loading.
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Observed Fire Occurrence / Fire Behavior YTD fire occurrence
has been close to normal, but acres burned is much below normal due
to the recent cool and wet weather. Moderate fire behavior has been
observed on dry, windy days. 2014 YTD10 Year Average Fires420381
Acres10,90672,935
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July Climate Outlooks
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July Fire Potential Outlook July is normally a busy month for
fire activity across much of Utah and Idaho. Fire activity is
expected to be close to normal this year for Utah and eastern Idaho
where mild weather conditions should moderate the drought stricken
fuels. Western Utah may be on the edge of the deeper monsoon
moisture this year and may become a focus area for new Initial
Attack. The slightly above normal grass crop in southwest and
south-central Idaho combined with the underlying drought conditions
will likely result in above normal large fire potential for that
area during the month. A small area of below normal fire potential
exists along the northeast fringes of the geographic area where the
boundary lies between dry conditions in southern Idaho and wetter
conditions over Wyoming and Montana.
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Long Term Climate Outlooks
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August Fire Potential Outlook Elevated large fire potential
continues into August over southwest and south central Idaho. This
area may expand to include portions of the west and central Idaho
mountains depending on the July weather pattern. Utah will likely
see some fire activity during the month as dry periods return to
the state in between surges of moisture from the south.
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Sep/Oct Fire Potential Outlook Overall large fire potential is
expected to decrease by mid-September area wide according to a
normal schedule.
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The End Send Questions/Comments To Shelby Law, EGBCC
[email protected]