Agricultural Situation Review of 1978 and Oudook for 1979

Eastern Europe

United States Department of Agriculture

Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service

Supplement 3 to WAS 18

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Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board

EASTERN EUROPE AGRICULTURAL SITUATION, REVIEW OF 1978 AND OUTLOOK FOR 1979. Eastern Europe and USSR Branch, International Economics Division, Eco­nomics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service. Supplement no. 3 to WAS-18. Approved by the World Food and Agricultural Outlook and Situation Board.

ABSTRACT: In 1978 gross agricultural production increased slightly. Grain, sunflowerseed, and soybean production reached record levels. Potato output was up; sugarbeet and tobacco production was down. The livestock inventory, except for horses, rose. Total meat production increased 4 percent. U.S. agricultural exports to the region amounted to $1.2 billion, with a prospect of a 5- to 10-percent increase in value in 1979. Agricultural growth plans for 1979 range from 2 percent in the German Democratic Republic to 7 percent in Bulgaria.

KEYWORDS: Eastern Europe, weather, crops, livestock, trade values, agricultural trade, agricultural policy and plans.

Washington, D.C. 20250 May 1979

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FOREWORD

This report reviews and analyzes major developments in the food and feed sectors of Eastern Europe during 1978 and provides information on the outlook for 1979. Emphasis is given to agricultural developments of major concern to the United States, especially developments affecting the outlook for foreign trade of farm commodities.

The report updates and supplements data found in Supplement 3 to WAS-15, Eastern Europe Agricultural Situation, Review of 1977 and Outlook for 1978. It is one of seven regional publications on the world agricultural situation. Other reports are being pub­lished on the USSR, Western Europe, the Western Hemisphere, Africa and West Asia, Asia and Oceania, and the People's Republic of China.

Thomas A. V ankai directed and coordinated preparation of this report. Sections of the report were written by Allen A. Terhaar and Thomas A. Vankai. Paul D. Johnson assis­ted in the compilation of statistical data. Information submitted by the U.S. Agricultural Attaches in Athens, Belgrade, Berlin, Bucharest, Vienna, and Warsaw is acknowledged with appreciation.

The statistical data given on the tables were taken from the statistical yearbooks of the respective countries or from the yearbooks of the Council for Mutual Economic Assis­tance if not sourced otherwise.

Any comments, suggestions or questions concerning this report should be addressed to Eastern Europe and USSR Branch, International Economics Division, Economics, Statis­tics, and Cooperatives Service, USDA, Room 314, 500 12th Street, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250. Phone (202) 447-8380.

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Thomas A. Vankai, Project Leader East European Situation and Outlook Eastern Europe and USSR Branch International Economics Division

ABBREVIATIONS, TERMS AND MEASURES

Abbreviations CEMA Council for Mutual Economic Assistance

CCC = Commodity Credit Corporation EC European Community EE Eastern Europe

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FRG Federal Republic of Germany CDR = German Democratic Republic or East Germany

FY 1978 October 1977-September 1978 (U.S. fiscal year) 1978/79 July-June

Terms Agricultural land--Cultivated land, gardens, orchards, meadows, and

pastures. Agricultural trade--Raw materials for food and fiber; feeds; and food and

food products.

Eastern Europe: Northern countries--Czechoslovakia, German Democratic Republic, Poland. Southern countries--Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia.

Transshipments--United States exports destined to Eastern Europe unloaded in Canada or Western Europe and reported by the U.S. Census Bureau as exports to the port of entry.

Units Metric units are used

One metric ton = One quintal = One kilogram

throughout: 2,204.6 pounds 100 kilograms 2.2046 pounds

One hectare = 2.471 acres

Conversion factors Cowhides: Milk: Soybeans:

one piece one liter one unit

20 kilograms 1.031 kilograms 79.5 percent soybean 18.0 percent soybean

Exchange rates as of January 1978

Bulgaria Czechoslovakia CDR Hungary Poland Romania Yugoslavia

*Commercial rate.

Official rate per U.S. $

Lev Korunas Marks Forints Zlotys Lei Dinar

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0.911 5.60 2.10

39.80* 3.32 4.97

18.44

meal equivalent, or oil equivalent.

Tourist rate per U.S. $

0.911 9.80 2.10

19.90 33.20 12.00 18.44

LIST OF TABLES

Table Title

1 Principal plan indicators, Eastern Europe, 1976-80 plan, 1978 actual .............. . 2 Total and agricultural trade, Eastern Europe, 1974-78 ............................. . 3 Intra-CEMA trade, percent of total and value, Eastern Europe, 1974-77 ........... . 4 U.S. exports to Eastern Europe, total and agricultural, 1971-78 ................... . 5 Volume and value of U.S. agricultural exports to Eastern Europe, including

transshipments, 1971-78 .......................................................... . 6 Volume and value of U.S. agricultural imports from Eastern Europe, 1971-78 .... . 7 Grain trade, Eastern Europe, 1971-77 .............................................. . 8 Trade in selected agricultural commodities, Eastern Europe, 1971-77 .............. . 9 Eastern Europe: Unit prices of U.S. exports in selected. commodities, 1971-78 ..... .

10 Oilseed meal imports, Eastern Europe, 1975-78 .................................... . 11 Domestic production and utilization of oilseed meal, Eastern Europe, 1974-78 ..... . 12 Area of grains, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 ................................... . 13 Production of grains, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 ............................. . 14 Area of selected crops, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 ........................... . 15 Production of selected crops, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 ..................... . 16 January livestock numbers, Eastern Europe, 1971-79 .............................. . 17 Production of principal livestock products, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 ....... . 18 Per capita consumption of selected foods, Eastern Europe, 1971-77 ................ . 19 Summary of descriptive data, Eastern Europe, 1977 ............................... .

Page

14 15 16 17

18-21 22

24-25 26-29

30 31 32

33-34 35-36 37-38 39-40 41-42 43-44 45-46

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CONTENTS

Page

SUMMARY ......................................................................... 1

PLANS AND POLICIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Economic Growth in 1978 Slower Than Planned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Reduced Targets Set for 1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Agricultural Investment Plans are Varied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 World Price Changes Exert Pressure for Altering Domestic Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Regional Agricultural Organizations are Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

FOREIGN TRADE VALUES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Negative Balance of Trade Persists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 West Provides Credits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 CEMA-EC Negotiations Stalemated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Agricultural Trade Negative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports Up in 1978 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4 U.S. Agricultural Imports Higher . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 U.S. Export Promotions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 U.S. Export Outlook Favorable for 1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

WEATHER HAS UNEVEN EFFECT ON CROP PRODUCTION IN 1978 . . . . . . . . . . 5

TOTAL GRAIN OUTPUT AT RECORD LEVEL, BUT CORN DISAPPOINTING .. 6 Grain Imports Steady ....... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Feed Grain Production Emphasized in 1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

PROTEIN FEED IMPORTS CONTINUE ........................................... . Oilseed Area and Production Increased .......................................... . Livestock Feed is the Primary Use of Oilseeds .................................. . Oilseed Meal Imports Down in 1978 ............................................. . Southern Countries are Self-Sufficient in Vegetable Oil ......................... . United States an Important Source for Protein .................................. . Demand for Protein Feed is Growing ........................................... .

OTHER CROPS ..................................................................... .

7 7 8 8 8 8 9

9 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Fruits and Vegetables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Hay and Silage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

LIVESTOCK SECTOR CONTINUES SLOW GROWTH ............................ . 1978 Plans Called for Slower Livestock Growth ................................. . Pricing System--Troublesome ..................................................... . EE Reluctant Meat Importer .................................................... . Livestock Situation in Poland Remains Problematic ............................. : Feed-Livestock Balance Sought in 1979 Plans . . . ............................... .

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11 11 11 12 12 13

Eastern Europe Agricultural Situation REVIEW OF 1978 AND OUTLOOK FOR 1979

SUMMARY

Eastern Europe's (EE) gross agricultural production rose in 1978, but was less than planned. Adverse weather affected spring sowing and plant and fruit development. Excessive precipitation dur­ing summer caused high moisture content in grain and delayed corn ripening.

Despite poor weather, EE harvested a record 95 million tons of grain in 1978 from a sown area roughly equal to that of 1977. Among the grains, corn proved the only setback with an 8 percent drop in production. Of an estimated 12 to 13 million tons of grain imported by EE, the U.S. share was 5.4 million tons. The United States supplied an estimated 90 percent of EE corn imports.

Production of the region's principal oilseeds­sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and soybeans-increased by 5 percent. Domestically produced oilmeals, however, cover only about 25 percent of EE consumption. Oilmeal imports continued to exceed 3 million tons in 1978 but were less than in 1977. Soybean meal accounted for about 80 percent of the total meal imports. U.S. exports of 1.2 million tons of soybean meal remained the same as in 1977 despite the decline in the region's total meal imports.

EE production of potatoes (over 70 million tons) was higher in 1978 than in 1977, but most other crops suffered from the poor weather. Sugarbeet production was down 5 percent, tobacco was down 7 percent, and fruit and vegetable production was below normal.

Rebuilding of livestock herds continued and the region's hog, sheep, and poultry inventory reached record levels in January 1979. Cattle, however, in the German Democratic Republic (GDR), Hungary, Poland, and Yugoslavia still numbered fewer than in 1975. Low retail meat prices and relatively high producer prices for livestol'k involved significant

consumer subsidies, causing an annually increasing burden on the national budgets.

With the exception of beef, both production and consumption of livestock products were up, though not at planned levels.

Negative foreign exchange balances and export difficulties still constrain EE agricultural imports. The overall trade deficit for the region remained close to $10 billion. All of the countries accepted Western bank credits to finance imports and service debts. Decisions on imports continue to be the monopoly of national governments in most EE countries and foreign indebtedness, ability to export, and other exchange considerations all weigh heavily on such decisions. Nevertheless, the prospects for U.S. agricultural exports to the region in 1979 are good. The demand for imported feed­of major interest to the United States-can be expected to remain at least at the 1978 level.

Agricultural growth targets for 1979 range from less than 2 percent in the GDR to 7 percent in Bulgaria. Expansion of grain production through increased yields continues to be emphasized. Corn and barley area is expected to increase in 1979, reflecting the EE concern over feed grain imports. An expansion of the area planted to oilseeds is also planned. The larger area designated for grain and oilseed production will be offset by a reduced area for production of potatoes and low yielding forage crops.

Plans in the livestock sector generally call for slower growth of livestock numbers and for increased meat production through greater productivity rather than through larger livestock inventories. A strong emphasis will continue on efficient feeding practices to help bring livestock­feed ratios more in line with domestic livestock and feed production. (Allen A. Terhaar and Thomas A. Vankai)

PLANS AND POLICIES

Economic Growth in 1978 Slower Than Planned

During 1978 most economic indicators-among them output, investment, and income-grew less

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than the annual level planned for 1976-80 (table 1). The greater-than-planned investments in Romania constitute one notable exception. Agricultural production was up in all countries except in

Yugoslavia, but was less than planned. The rate of increase of gross agricultural output in Bulgaria and Poland, although attaining the planned annual level, reflected a partial recovery from a sharp decline in 1977. The planned self-sufficiency in grain production suffered a serious setback in Romania and Yugoslavia and remained distant for the GDR and Poland.

Reduced Targets Set for 1979

The plans for 1979 are not designed to lift the economy to the course charted originally in the 5-year plans. Accumulated foreign debt and deteriorated terms of tradt forced all countries to scale down plans for domestic consumption and investment. Total investment in Poland is planned to decline by 11.5 percent. Nevertheless, Poland is the only country in the region where investment in agriculture will grow faster than in any other sec­tor of the economy.

All country plans for 1979 emphasize the need to reduce imports and increase exports. Faster growth in feed than in livestock production is a primary goal to achieve this task. To foster better performance, some managerial and organizational changes have been made. Producer and consumer prices were increased selectively to stimulate production and decelerate the growth of consumption.

Agricultural growth targets for 1979 range between less than 2 percent in the GDR and 7 percent in Bulgaria. The plan objectives continue to emphasize self-sufficiency in food production. The general directives call for preserving land for agricultural use, avoiding leaving any land fallow, practicing double cropping, improving labor productivity and production efficiency, using machinery in shifts for full capacity, and adopting new scientific discoveries and technology quickly.

Part-time farming on private plots, merely toler­ated in the past, now enjoys government support. The governments now fully recognize the economic significance of capturing idle or overtime labor or filling small empty shelters with livestock. Large farms are urged to cooperate with the small oper­ators by contracting for their products and by providing them with seeds and livestock. Cooper­ation between the large enterprises for specialized production is to continue also.

Agricultural Investment Plans are Varied

Hungary increased the profit tax of state farms in 1979 by 4 percent. Mandatory contributions to the reserve fund-a fund to be used when profits do not cover minimum wages-were raised from 15 percent to 25 percent of profits on state farms and

from 4 percent to 8 percent on cooperatives. These measures were taken to limit investments which exceeded the planned level by 15 percent in 1978.

In Romania, growth of agricultural investment will trail the growth of investment in the economy as a whole. Agriculture's share in total investment will be 10 percent, down from 11 percent in 1978. In 1976, Poland revised its 1976-80 agricultural will increase to 18 percent from 16 percent in 1978. In 1976, Poland revised is 1976-80 agricultural investment target up from $13 billion to $17 bil­lion1, of which $3.2 billion is earmarked for 1979. In addition, loans will be granted to private farmers if they form associations for specialized production or take over farms from the State Land Fund.

Polish farmers are turning over land to the State Land Fund in exchange for retirement pen­sions. In 1977, private farmers bought or leased about 90,000 hectares (ha) from the Fund and are expected to take over 150,000 ha in 1979. The majority of the farms relinquished are below 5 ha units. These lands often are unsuited for large scale cultivation because of their locations, but may be better incorporated in privately managed farms. Furthermore, the transferred land is usually of low quality and needs considerable investment for improvement.

World Price Changes Exert Pressure for Altering Domestic Prices

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In the East European countries, producer, consumer, and foreign trade prices are independently fixed by the governments. Price setting by market forces is tolerated only in Yugoslavia and for a limited number of products in Hungary. The Polish government raised the producer prices of livestock in 1978 to stimulate production but was reluctant to increase meat prices for consumers; consequently, shortages continued at retail outlets. Consumer prices of non­essentials, such as coffee, cocoa, tobacco, liquor, and tropical or Mediterranean fruits were, however, increased in all countries. While most East Euro­pean governments have been reluctant to raise prices for staple foods-meat, milk, bread, and sugar-they have raised other retail prices. Hungary announced approval of a 4.6-percent increase and Romania a 5.5 percent increase in average retail prices to curtail purchasing power of their populations. The Yugoslav leadership is com­mitted to producer price increases not to exceed 9 percent in 1979, which would trigger a 13-percent increase in retail prices. This compares with the 15-percent increase in retail prices in 1978.

1 Based on conversion rate of $1 = 33.20 zloties.

Even in the market oriented Yugoslavian econ­omy, farm prices are subject to government intervention. If farmers cannot obtain an estab­lished minimum price on the free market, the gov­ernment is obligated to buy certain commodities for a protective price, in most instances equalling the set minimum prices. Yugoslavia, to shield domestic price levels, increased custom tariffs in 1978 for most agricultural products. But flexibility is exercised in waiving tariffs; soybeans, for exam­ple, are exempted and corn received a special waiver in 1978.

Regional Agricultural Organizations are Emerging

Bulgaria pioneered in 1978 with the creation of self-sufficient regions. Each region is a self­financing unit with responsibility to distribute income to the affiliated enterprises. Wage earners and cooperative farm members are protected by a government-guaranteed minimum wage. Farms also are eligible for compensation from the state in case of natural disaster. Leaders of the regions are responsible for meeting a food delivery quota and are allowed to import only up to the extent of for­eign exchange earnings from their own exports. The system, in operation since 1978, has been termed successful by Bulgarian leaders and will be continued with improved resource organization. Poland intends to shift responsibilities more vigo­rously to the existing rural self governments. In the past, the rural authorities lacked prestige, and

met with strong farmer resistance when they interfered in individual decisions of farm oper­ations.

Romania recently legislated the establishment of General Industrial State and Cooperative Coun­cils (GlASCO). The GlASCO will embrace all types of farm-related organizations: state farms, cooper­ative farms, machine stations, intercooperative associations, research stations, and regional teach­ing institutions. The GlASCO's tasks will include the establishment of uniformity in mechanization, plant protection, fertilizer and seed use, record keeping, and extension service. The enterprises under the jurisdiction of the GlASCO will have administrative and financial autonomy. The GlASCO reportedly will be organized in a democratic fashion-at the bottom, the General Assembly of all workers; and at the top, a council with a chairman. The council will be the final authority in all aspects of management, on allocating investment funds, approving crop rota­tions, etc. A vertical reorganization will become effective simultaneously with this horizontal reorganization. The Department of Food Industry will be detached from the Ministry of Agriculture and renamed the Department of Industrial Processing of Agricultural Products. Each branch of this administrative unit-meat, milk, sugarbeet, etc.-will contract with a regional GlASCO and will have authority to influence production quality and use of inputs on the farms. (Thomas A. Van­kai)

FOREIGN TRADE VALUES

Negative Balance of Trade Persists

The East European balance of trade in 1978 is estimated to have slightly surpassed the $10 billion deficit attained in 1977 (table 2). Yugoslavia again had the largest deficit of $4 billion, but Yugoslavia's earnings from invisibles (services and transfer payments) were reportedly higher than in 1977, thus its balance of payments deficit declined. Yugoslavia has the highest invisible hard currency earnings in the region, particularly from tourism and from remittances of Yugoslavians working in Western Europe. Next to Yugoslavia, Poland's and the GDR's trade deficits were the highest, although Poland's deficit declined slightly in 1978. The GDR did not publish export-import value data, but based on fragmentary information, some improvement in its overall trade balance is expected, although its hard currency deficit increased. The trade balance in Hungary deteriorated significantly in 1978 and in Romania it turned from a surplus to a deficit.

A detailed breakdown on hard currency and ruble trade for 1978 is not yet available. Between

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1974 and 1977 the share of ruble trade and the negative balance on ruble account increased annually (table 3). Trade distribution by ruble and dollar accounts is provided by Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CEMA) sources. Since the East European currencies are not convertible, the individual countries set arbitrary exchange rates. The exchange rates used for the same commodities in ruble or dollar trade do not reflect the official exchange rate quoted between these two monetary units. Prices charged in intra-CEMA trade differ from world prices and are decided during bilateral negotiations.

The East European countries maintain several exchange rates, different ones for commerce than for tourists. Hungary recently announced plans to narrow the gap between the two rates, and at the start of 1979 devalued slightly the tourist rate of the forint against the hard currencies to attract more visitors and augment its hard currency earn­ings.

West Provides Credits

Western analysts estimate that EE hard cur­rency debt rose to about $35 billion by the end of 1978. All countries continued to solicit and take Western bank credits to finance imports and service debts. In 1978, Poland received $500 million from European Banks and another $500 million from Japanese banks, closing 1978 with about $14-15 billion hard currency debt. Financial circles esti­mate that Poland will need another $1 billion in 1979 to help repay debt obligations. Poland's debt situation is the highest in EE, both on a per capita basis and in relation to hard currency exports. Other known bank loans are $300 million each to Hungary and Romania from the Eurodollar market and $200 million to Hungary from Japan. Banks apparently consider EE credit worthy and are will­ing to commit funds to East European borrowers in the absence of adequate demand for funds from the slowly growing Western industrial economies.

Besides bank credits, EE is using project ori­ented loans or credits from commodity exporters. The EE countries also bolstered their economies by purchasing licenses from the West and by entering into joint ventures with western firms. Counter trade-tying imports with exports-is another approach used by EE countries to circumvent deterioration of trade balances.

Romania and Yugoslavia are considered developing countries; thus they qualified for long term loans from the World Bank in 1978. One agri­culture-related loan of $40.5 million was granted for a Romanian irrigation project in Teleorman County. Yugoslavia received a loan for $55 million to benefit about 12,000 farmers in Bosnia­Herzegovina, and another loan for $82 million for irrigation in Macedonia.

CEMA-EC Negotiations Stalemated

Periodic meetings between representatives of CEMA and the EC continued during 1978. The negotiations covered mostly administrative matters. The EC reiterated its position to cooperate only in exchanges of information, forecasts and statistical data, product standardization problems, and in environmental protection. The EC remained adamant in its view that the CEMA is not its equal as an institution since it is a loose associ­ation with no influence on individual member's tariffs and has no authority to negotiate trade agreements binding to its members.

Agricultural Trade Negative

Agricultural trade values are not yet available for 1978. In 1977, agriculture accounted for about 37 percent of EE's total trade deficit, up from 35

4

percent in 1976 (table 2). The share of agricultural deficit in dollar account was even higher. Hungary and Bulgaria were net agricultural exporters, Romania slipped to a net importer position in 1977 and most likely remained so in 1978.

Agriculture accounted for close to 14 percent of the region's total imports in 1977 and 10 percent of exports. Poland and the GDR, the leading agricul­tural importers, reduced their agricultural trade deficit somewhat in 1978. Their grain imports declined and Poland did not import meats in 1978. Coffee, a significant hard currency import item in each East European country, reportedly accounted for 40 percent of total food imports in Hungary.

Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports Up in 1978

Agricultural commodities accounted for three-fif­ths of U.S. exports to EE. The U.S. share of the region's total agricultural imports was 10 percent in 1977, 16 percent in 1976, and probably ranged between 10 and 16 percent in 1978.

U.S. agricultural exports to EE recovered to $1.2 billion (including transshipments) in 1978 after peaking at $1.4 billion in 1976 and declining to $.9 billion in 1977. As in previous years, grains, oil­seeds and oilseed products were the principal U.S. exports to the region. Grain accounted for 50 percent and oilseeds and oilseed products for 34 percent of the total export value (table 5). The value of all principal export commodities-except soybean meals-to EE increased. A roughly 8-percent increase in average export unit price helped to lift the export value of corn. Soybean and soybean meal unit prices declined, but the volume of exports increased (table 9). The price of cattle hides increased 20 percent.

Poland remained the region's leading importer of U.S. agricultural products with over $500 million, but the GDR, Romania, and Yugoslavia each imported more than $100 million. In 1978 U.S. exports to all countries except the GDR and Czech­oslovakia surpassed the 1977 values. Nevertheless, the GDR remained the region's second most important importer of U.S. agricultural products.

The trade values published by the U.S. Census Bureau are adjusted by the USDA to include transshipped products. Some goods destined to EE via Canadian, West German, Belgian, or Dutch ports show only the initial port of entry on U.S. export declaration documents, thus distorting actual trade values collected and reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Transshipment value peaked at $474 million in 1976 but declined to $86 million in 1978 (table 4). The GDR, with warehousing in Hamburg, accounted for three-fourths of the transshipped value in 1976 and for more than half in 1978.

U.S. Agricultural Imports Higher

The United States ran up a considerable surplus in its agricultural trade with EE. Despite a 28-percent increase in 1978, the value of imports was less than half that of exports (table 6). Processed meat accounted for 70 percent of total agricultural imports. Poland is the region's leading exporter of processed meats, followed by Yugoslavia. All coun­tries except Bulgaria increased their processed meat exports to the United States in 1978.

U.S. Export Promotions

Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) credits played an important role iri promoting U.S. agri­cultural exports, totaling $505 million in FY 1978 to Poland. Credits made available to EE in FY 1979 include $404.7 million to Poland; $110 million to Romania; $42 million to Hungary; and $21.5 million to Yugoslavia. In addition, the CCC guar­anteed $100 million to U.S. exporters of agricul­tural products to Poland for noncommercial risk protection. Romania requested the credit for feed grain purchases, Hungary for oilseed meal and cot­ton, Yugoslavia for soybeans, and Poland for a variety of products. More than half of the credits to Poland covers grain purchases, and the remainder soybeans, oilmeals, vegetable oils, cotton, soy protein, tobacco, and tallow.

Last October, the Agricultural Trade Expansion Act of 1978 became law. This Act authorizes the CCC to grant intermediate credits-from 3 to 10 years-for breeding animal purchases, for wheat bought for reserve in consistency with international agreements, and for constructing marketing facilities for agricultural products. Eligibility requirements for intermediate credits are

the same as for short term; consequently, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and the GDR are excluded. Another promotional clause in the new Act author­izes the USDA to open 6 to 25 agricultural trade offices abroad, with locations under consideration in EE.

The United States waived for Romania in 1975 and for Hungary in 1978 the restrictions imposed by the Jackson-Vanik amendment of the Trade Act of 1974, which ties trade concessions to emigration policies. Since the restrictions were waived, those countries now receiv~ Most Favored Nation (MFN) treatment from the United States. It is expected that the MFN status will result in improved U.S. trade relations with Hungary as it did in the case of Romania.

U.S. Export Outlook Favorable for 1979

Based on the 1978 domestic feed production and yearend livestock inventories, the demand for imported feed-where the main U.S. export prospect lies-is expected to continue in 1979 at about the 1978 level; however, imports in the sec­ond half of 1979 will be influenced by the 1979 harvest. Increased agricultural imports by Bulgaria, Romania, and Yugoslavia will most likely offset reduced imports by the other four countries of the region. Based on the import intentions indicated in the respective countries and on world commodity supplies, we estimate a slight decline of U.S. wheat exports to EE to be more than offset by increased corn and soybean meal exports. Based on these estimates and the forecast of higher export prices, the U.S. exports to EE should approximate $1.3 billion, 5 to 10 percent above the 1978 value. (Thomas A. Vankai)

WEATHER HAS UNEVEN EFFECT ON CROP PRODUCTION IN 1978

Cold and wet weather was the norm in the more northern East European countries, while damaging storms and drought reduced corn, fruit, and vegeta­ble yields in the southern countries. Winter grains got off to a poor start in the fall of 1977 and did not winter well because of low soil moisture in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria. In October 1977, for instance, Hungary's mean soil moisture was only 45 percent of normal.

Above average winter precipitation compensated for the shortfall and by April 1978, all of the coun­tries had close to average soil moisture. Cold and wet spring weather seriously delayed corn and soybean planting and retarded early growth. A late

5

spring frost damaged fruits, vegetables, and tobacco in Yugoslavia. Severe storms and hail dur­ing mid- and late June caused serious damage to 950,000 hectares of crops in Bulgaria and forced the replanting of much of the area. Low rainfall in July and August hurt crop development (especially corn) in Yugoslavia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Storms and almost continuous rainfall plagued EE during the summer harvest, causing lodging, delays, and high moisture content in grains. Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia reported grain arriving at purchasing centers with 30-40 percent moisture content. (Allen A. Terhaar)

TOTAL GRAIN OUTPUT AT RECORD LEVEL, BUT CORN DISAPPOINTING

Total grain output for the region reached a record 95 million tons in 1978. The area sown to grain in each country remained almost the same as in previous years, although its composition was somewhat altered (table 12). The area sown to bar­ley increased in the region as a whole and jumped more than 20 percent in Bulgaria and Romania. The area planted to corn was up about 3 percent in Bulgaria, but dropped slightly in the other EE countries. In Poland, which has had little success with its corn program to date, the area of corn harvested for grain decreased from 57,000 hectares in 1977 to only 33,000 in 1978.

Grain output was up in every country except Yugoslavia (table 13). Czechoslovakia and Hungary had record crops. Production of wheat, rye, and barley showed gains over 1977, with record harvests of wheat and barley for the region. Because of poor weather and reduced area for grains other than wheat, Yugoslavia harvested its smallest grain crop since 1972. Yugoslavia's total grain crop was down 16 percent from 1977, with the largest shortfall occurring in corn. Poland­East Europe's largest grain importer-harvested a larger grain crop than in 1977, but was still short of its 1974 record. Hungary and Romania were the only two countries to show increases in corn production in 1978, but both countries fell short of previous harvests.

There were problem areas despite the record grain crop in 1978. Heavy and consistent rainfall during harvest and the late ripening of corn caused much of the grain to have very high moisture content. A general shortage of grain drying facili­ties in EE means that there were quality losses. The emphasis put on high-yielding wheat for feed in Hungary caused a shortage of high-quality milling grain. To correct this situation, efforts are underway to tie farm prices to grain quality. In Yugoslavia the government banned the use of 1978 wheat for animal feed in order to preserve the shortfall crop for human consumption.

Corn proved the disappointing crop in 1978 with an 8-percent drop in production on an area reduced by only 4 percent. Yugoslavia accounted for much of that shortfall, but Czechoslovakia experienced a 20-percent reduction on a nearly constant plant~d area. Yugoslavia had its smallest corn crop th1s decade and began to import corn for the first time since 1973/7 4. It is also thought that Romanian corn production figures do not fully discount higher moisture content when recording grain ton­nage, thus the 1978 Romanian corn crop is proba­bly overstated.

6

Grain Imports Steady

Total EE grain imports in 197~ are estimated at about 12 to 13 million tons, almost equal to 1977's 12.6 million tons (table 7). Due to the record wheat harvest in 1978, however, wheat imports are expected to be down 1.0 to 1.5 million tons in 1978179. 1 The difference will be made up in the record level of coarse grain imports for feed.

All the EE countries except Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia are expected to buy more barley this year. Barley imports are estimated at 3.5 million tons in 1978/79, and corn imports are expected to rise to 5.0 million tons, up nearly 1.6 million tons from the previous year. The general shortfall in corn production heightened the need for feed imports. Only Hungary is expected to be a net exporter of corn. Romania and Yugoslavia-nor­mally -net corn exporters-were forced to increase their corn imports greatly over the previous July­June levels. Poor hay and silage results in 1978 also contributed to the high level of feed imports.

The United States maintained its position in 1978 as the region's largest supplier of feed grains (table 5). Corn made up over three-fourths of the U.S. coarse grain exports to the region and the United States supplied an estimated 90 percent of total East European corn imports. Yugoslavia is expected to purchase over 1.1 million tons of corn in 1978179, and final imports may go even higher. In addition, Yugoslavia already has purchased close to 100,000 tons of U.S. grain sorghum.

Other major suppliers of grain to the region are Western Europe, Canada, Argentina, and the USSR. Poland already has purchased a half million tons of wheat from the Soviet Union­which had a record wheat harvest in 1978. The GDR and Czechoslovakia also are expected to buy grain from the USSR. France has agreed to sell Poland as much as 800,000 tons of wheat and/or barley. French grain is attractive because of high EC export subsidies, favorable credit, and low transport costs.

In spite of high interest rates on credits and large EE hard currency indebtedness, CCC credits continue to play an important role in U.S. trade with the region. Poland and Romania were the two EE countries that undertook CCC financing of grain imports for FY 1979. Poland was extended CCC credits for about 1.4 million tons of feed grains and 462,000 tons of wheat. CCC credit .«iS

1 Here July-June import figures are used to reflect the influence of one crop year on imports. EE countries­except Poland and Yugoslavia-only report import fig­ures on a calendar year basis.

established for Romania for the first time to finance imports of U.S. feed grains consisting of approximately 1.1 million tons, primarily of corn. Imports resulted from the combination of a below­plan corn harvest and a very strong emphasis on expanding meat production for export and domes­tic consumption.

Feed Grain Production Emphasized in 1979

Eastern Europe continues to emphasize strongly the expansion of grain production, especially feed grains. These goals are consistent with the policy of trying to reduce hard currency imports of grains and to bring domestic feed production more into line with livestock numbers in each country.

The 1979 plans call for grain production increases ranging from 2 percent in Hungary to 6 percent in Romania. Corn and barley are the two grains that are strongly emphasized. Hungary intends to increase the area under grain crops by 50,000 ha (1.7 percent), with the largest increase in corn. Hungary, however, faces a perennial problem in getting some farms to plant corn on the full allotted area, as returns are low in comparison with other crops. Thus, it remains to be seen whether Hungary can expand corn production to the planned level. The area designated for both corn and barley is expected to increase in Czech­oslovakia in 1979. The planned increase in barley area is 10 percent. Yugoslavia and Hungary plan to decrease the area sown to wheat this crop year, but plan to increase output.

Overall grain production is expected to rise in EE. Wheat production is planned to rise with constant or declining area sown. This is to be accomplished by improving varieties and by using more fertilizers and plant-protecting agents. Oats and rye continue to be deemphasized and should

continue their trend toward smaller sown area and lower production.

General weather conditions during sowing and the early stages of growth indicate that the 1979 grain production plans may already be in trouble. Extremely wet conditions delayed sowing in the region. In Hungary, wet conditions delayed sowing and then a late fall drought left the topsoil with insufficient moisture and hampered emergence. Fall work and sowing were delayed 1-3 weeks in the GDR and Czechoslovakia. Poland and Yugoslavia appear to be the most affected by unfavorable weather. The area sown to winter grain in Poland fell 300,000 hectares short of plan because of weather-induced delays. Grain stands were not yet well established prior to -14°C tem­peratures in early December. There was, however, good to heavy snow cover in EE from late Decem­ber through February. Heavy snowfall and a sudden thaw, however, led to flooding on 176,000 hectares in Hungary, 50,000 of which had been seeded. Severe flooding in Poland inundated approximately 1 million hectares. There is a short­age of certified seed in Poland in 1979 and the gen­eral quality of spring sowing seed is poor. The National Seed Center can ensure supplies of only about 73 percent of the demand for spring grain seeds. Farmers are being called on to use reserves and postpone seed stock improvement to make up for the shortfall. Spring wheat and oats are the grains most affected.

Based on present plans and the present crop situation, EE grain imports in 1979/80 are likely to remain at about the 1978179 level. Since Romania is maintaining its ambitious plans for expanding livestock production, that country can be considered a likely market for U.S. feed grain exports if they remain competitive on the world market. (Allen A. Terhaar)

PROTEIN FEED IMPORTS CONTINUE

Oilseed Area and Production Increased

Oilseeds in EE are sown on about 4 percent of arable land. Sunflowerseed is the leading oilseed, followed by rapeseed and soybeans. Sunflowerseed and soybeans are principally sown in the southern countries, while the northern countries are the principal rapeseed producers (table 14). The combined harvested area of sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans was up 4 percent in 1978. Sunflowerseed and soybean area reached record levels; rapeseed area declined because late sowing and inclement weather in Poland hindered sprouting and seed development in some parts of the country. Sunflower area increased in Hungary and Yugoslavia. Soybean area almost doubled in

7

Bulgaria and increased in Romania and Yugoslavia. The expansion of sown area was stim­ulated by comparatively high producer prices and the availability of higher yielding hybrid sunflowerseed varieties. Some new sunf1owerseed varieties propagated in Romania that are resistant to blight, rust, and drought, yield more than 40 quintals per hectare and have edible oil content exceeding 50 percent. Romanian farmers planted the new varieties on about 30,000 hectares. Hungary also began to shift from Soviet varieties to Romanian and French hybrids, which adapt bet­ter to the Hungarian climate and soil.

Production of the three principal oilseeds is esti­mated to have increased by 5 percent in 1978

(table 15). Linseed, a minor crop, is produced exclu­sively for seed in the southern countries and is declining. In the northern countries it is harvested as the by-product of flax fiber. The leading linseed producers, Poland and Romania, each harvested about 50,000 tons of linseed. In Hungary, both area and production of linseed show a declining trend because low yields make linseed production unprofitable.

livestock Feed is the Primary Use of Oilseeds

The primary use of oilseeds is to provide protein to livestock; of secondary importance is their use in vegetable oil and margarine. The use of soy protein as a meat substitute is not yet widespread. All EE countries are deficient in protein feed production, but the southern countries are surplus producers of vegetable oil. In the northern countries where rape­seed is the prominent oilseed, both rapeseed meal and oil are blended with other products to minimize the ill effects of erucic acid in food and feed. Vigorous research is conducted to breed vari­eties with reduced erucic acid content; Czech­oslovakia has reported some progress.

Each country of the region imports either protein meal or oilseeds or both. The southern countries export sunflower oil, and Poland, rape­seed oil. Hungary exports sunflowerseed because of inadequate processing capacity (table 8).

EE produced about 1.5 million tons of oilseed meal in 1978 from its 1977 crop, covering about 25 percent of domestic meal consumption (table 11). In addition, approximately 0.5 million tons of oilseed meal were processed from imported seeds, mostly soybeans. The processing capacity of Romania and Yugoslavia exceeds the domestic oilseed supply. Poland exports some rapeseed and imports soybeans.

Oilseed Meal Imports Down in 1978

The total oilmeal supply in 1978-from 1977 production and 1978 trade-is estimated to be 0.5 million tons less than the 1977 supply (table 11). Soybean meal imports from Brazil declined. ·Because of the outbreak of African Swine Fever in Brazil, some EE countries placed an embargo on imports of soybean meal for several months, fear­ing it to be an eventual transmitter of the disease. Also, Indian peanut meal exports were reduced sharply and apparently these import shortfalls were not compensated from other sources.

Domestic protein feed requirements increased since the hog inventory grew 3 percent during 1978 (table 16). Indications are th:1t less protein meal and more straw pellets treated with urea were fed to cattle. It is also likely that an adequate stock of

8

oilseed meal accumulated from previous years prevented any drastic reduction of protein in mixed feeds for hogs and broilers.

Soybean meal dominates oilseed meal imports, with an annually increasing share. The average annual share of soybean meal imports in 1977 and 1978 approximated 80 percent of the total oilseed meal imports (table 10). The U.S. share in total soybean meal imports during those years was about two-fifths. Brazil and some western Euro­pean countries, particularly the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), provided the remainder. The GDR imported 240,000 tons of soybean meal from FRG under special agreement which excludes GDR-FRG trade from the foreign trade restrictions imposed by the European Community. Besides oilseed meals, EE imports fish meal and a lesser quantity of meat meal. Annual fish meal imports average about 400,000 tons. Among the leading suppliers­based on less than full year data-Peru increased and Norway decreased fish meal exports to EE in 1978.

Southern Countries are Self-Sufficient in Vegetable Oil

Vegetable oil consumption is the highest in the principal sunflower growing southern countries. Consumption is growing in the region, especially among the urban population. After increasing its processing capacity in 1978 to 200,000 tons of oil annually, Yugoslavia (an importer in previous years) had a surplus of 10,000-20,000 tons. Hungary is constructing a modern processing plant with a daily capacity of 1,000 tons. When this plant is completed (scheduled in 1980), Hungary's processing capacity will double; however, several of the five plants currently in use will be closed down because they are obsolete and inefficient. Hungary presently exports two-thirds of its sunflower oil production. Romania, the prin­cipal exporter of the region, plans to increase out­put by 14.7 percent in 1979.

United States an Important Source for Protein

The United States exported 1.2 million tons of soybean meal and 0.6 million tons of soybeans to EE in 1978. All EE countries imported soybean meal or soybeans from the United States (table 5). Poland bought two-fifths of the U.S. soybean meal exports to EE and an additional 113,000 tons of cottonseed and linseed meal. Romania and Yugoslavia were the principal importers of soybeans. Czechoslovakia imported 17,000 tons of sunflowerseed, 11,000 tons less than in 1977. Some discrepancy exists between U.S. export data and the data published by the recipient c~untries

(table 10). This results from the varying EE methods for registering trade data, estimated adjustment for transshipments through Western Europe, and shipments attributed to Yugoslavia that are actually destined for Hungary.

Demand for Protein Feed is Growing

The planned increase in livestock production, the expanding mixed feed industry, the emphasis on efficient feeding, and the present modest protein ratio in feed all indicate substantial growth potential for protein feed use in subsequent years. The southern countries plan to divert land from other crops to sunflowerseed and soybeans; Czech­oslovakia from potatoes to rapeseed. The production growth, however, will be limited by the availability of irrigable land. On the other hand, the EE governments can set prices and bonuses making oilseed production comparatively more profitable to farmers than com production despite the disparity in yields. A federal government directive in Yugoslavia calls for a 47-percent increase of soybean area and a 10.7-percent increase of sunflower area in 1979. Hungary plans a 4-percent increase in sunflower area. Lack of storage and processing capacity limits expansion in Hungary. Hungary temporarily abandoned past plans for tripling soybean area because with the present low soybean yields and high com yields, the price ratio between soybeans and corn on the international market favors corn production. Poland's plan calls for a 7.8-percent increase in rapeseed production. Late planting and severe win­ter, however, dimmed harvest prospects in Poland.

Czechoslovakia would like to gradually increase sunflower production in Slovakia up to 40,000 hec­tares. Officials call for an increase in self­sufficiency level and for improved processing effi­ciency.

Due to the region's limited capability for increasing domestic production, the growing demand for protein feed will have to be covered by imports. In the short run, however, hard currency shortages pose a constraint on imports, making it unlikely that 1979 imports will surpass 1978 levels. The United States has a good chance to maintain or increase its past share in the region's oilseed meal imports and is expected to continue to be an almost sole supplier of soybeans.

The United States continues to grant CCC cred­its to eligible EE countries. CCC credits will encourage Poland to import, at current prices, 225,000 tons of oilseed meals and 70,000 tons of soybeans in FY 1979. CCC credits to Hungary are adequate for the purchase of 160,000 tons of soybean meal and to Yugoslavia for the purchase of 73,000 tons of soybeans. It is expected that dur­ing the 1979 marketing year EE purchases will sig­nificantly exceed the credit limits and that imports may reach 1.4 million tons of soybean meal, based on reports about import intentions of the individual countries. During the 1979 marketing year through February, EE imported 540,000 tons of U.S. soybean meal and 200,000 tons of soybeans. Poland also requested CCC credit for vegetable oil purchases. It is expected that Poland's vegetable oil imports will match last year's volume of 18,000 tons, of which 80 percent was linseed oil. (Tiwmas A. Vankai)

OTHER CROPS

Potatoes

The area planted to potatoes has steadily decreased in this decade and in 1978 was down 4 percent from 1977 (table 14). Production, however, was up 10 percent in 1978, totaling more than 70 million tons (table 15). Poland, Hungary, Czech­oslovakia, and the GDR had larger harvests than in the previous year, with Hungary harvesting a record crop. Poland-by far the region's largest potato producer with 66 percent of the total­almost fulfilled its 1978 planned potato harvest with a 13-percent increase over the 1977 crop. This was good news for the Polish hog industry as potatoes are an important feed item on private farms. Very wet conditions in Poland and the GDR during harvest mean that there are probably losses from potato rot. Other countries reported potatoes to be of good quality.

Indications are that the area planted to potatoes

9

will continue to decline in 1979 as the land is shifted to grain and other crops. Because feed grains remain in short supply in EE, potatoes are likely to remain an important feed item in hog production on private farms and household plots. Per capita consumption of potatoes can be expected to continue its slow decline in the region because of improved diets. The more northern countries­Poland, the GDR, and Czechoslovakia-have the highest per capita potato consumption. Per capita consumption in Poland is close to 170 kilograms yearly and in the GDR, close to 140 kilograms (table 18).

Sugarbeets

Total area planted to sugarbeets in EE in 1978 was down very slightly from the 1977 total (table 14). Sugarbeet area was up by about 4,000 hectares in Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia, but

was stable or down in the other countries. Production fell 5 percent short of the 1977 record (table 15). In Hungary, the harvest increased by 8 percent over that of 1977, while in Poland it increased by less than 1 percent. All other EE countries produced smaller sugarbeet crops in 1978. In Romania this decrease was 7 percent; in the GDR, 10 percent; and in Czechoslovakia, 12 percent.

Hungary was the 1978 success story in sugarbeet production with a record 4.2 million tons harvested and processed, and a sugar content (at 16.9 percent) that was more than 1 percentage point higher than in 'the previous year. This wind­fall allowed Hungary to export about 10,000 tons of sugar and to plan to decrease its area planted to sugarbeets by 10,000 hectares in 1979. Czech­oslovakia also reported the sugar content of beets to be about 1 percentage point greater in 1978.

Poland-Eastern Europe's largest sugar producer and an exporter of sugar refining tech­nology-fell about 2.5 million tons short of its 1978 sugarbeet production plan. Because of adverse weather conditions throughout the growing and harvesting season in Poland, it is likely that sugar content was low. Romania reported reduced sugar content as well as a drop in its 1978 harvest. Poor weather in the GDR was responsible for a shortfall of almost a million tons under the 1977 record crop.

In Yugoslavia, sugarbeet production declined in spite of a 5 percent increase in producer prices. The reduced harvest was the result of lower yields due to adverse weather. Acreage planted to sugarbeets is expected to increase by 5 percent in Yugoslavia in 1979 and five processing mills are expected to be added to the existing capacity. Yugoslavia is a net importer of sugar, and also one of the world's high­est cost producers.

Tobacco

Tobacco production in EE is estimated to have fallen to its lowest level since 1971, with a total of only 331,000 tons for the region (table 15). This is 7 percent below the 1977 harvest. Poland and Yugoslavia were responsible for the decline as bad weather hampered planting, growth, and drying. Area planted to tobacco was down by over 10 percent in both countries. Harvesting and drying were delayed at least 21 days in Poland.

Bulgaria-by far the region's largest tobacco producer-recorded a 7 percent increase in the 1978 harvest on a slightly increased area. Oriental tobacco accounts for over 85 percent of Bulgaria's crop, and flue-cured and burley tobaccos account for approximately 10 and 2 percent, respectively. Bulgaria leads Eastern Europe in per capita production of cigarettes and is the major supplier of tobacco and cigarettes to the CEMA countries.

Poland, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia continued to import tobacco from the United States in 1978, but imports were down 13 percent for the three. Yugoslavia raised producer prices for tobacco by 15 to 19 percent in 1978 and Poland raised its producer price for tobacco leaves and seeds for the 1979 crop by an average of 25 percent. It is hoped that these price increases will help to reverse the downward trend in planted area since 1976.

Fruits and Vegetables

Poor weather in 1978 was especially hard on fruit and vegetable production. Freezing tem­peratures in late May as far south as Yugoslavia and Bulgaria seriously hurt vegetables and fruit trees in the blossom stage. Hail storms damaged fruit and vegetables in Bulgaria in late June and early July, and drought affected production through summer in Yugoslavia and Romania.

Production of many fruits and vegetables was below normal in the northern countries. In Czech­oslovakia, total vegetable production was down 19 percent and fruit and grape harvests were approxi­mately 6 percent lower than in 1977. Cucumbers and tomatoes were the vegetables which showed the greatest production declines and shortages of these vegetables appeared in the markets. Apple production was reported to be slightly below nor­mal, whereas pear production was off sharply.

Romania, Hungary, and Yugoslavia also recorded poor fruit and vegetable harvests. Grape production in Romania was reported to be down by about 10 percent and sugar content-important in the manufacture of wines-was also poor. Peppers, cucumbers, tomatoes, peaches, and cherries were all less than planned in Hungary. The processi':lg of tomatoes and pepper preserves-a Hungarian export item-was expected to be down by as much as 50 percent. This is in contrast to Hungary's 1977 vegetable production which exceeded processing capacity.

Yugoslavia's fruit and grape harvest fell about · 17 percent from the previous year. A 16-percent

decline in plum production accounted for much of the decline. Dried prunes are exported by Yugoslavia to the USSR under a trade agreement to supply from 8-12,000 tons of prunes annually until 1980. With production of prunes estimated to be down almost 40 percent from 1977, exports of prunes are expected to drop to 10,000 tons, a 35-percent decline.

10

Hay and Silage

Because of its feed grain deficit in recent years, EE is giving increased emphasis to green fodder, silage, and hay production in order to bring cattle feeding capabilities in line with cattle numbers. In

this respect, 1978 was disappointing. Poland, Czechoslovakia, and the GDR-the chief EE importers of feed grains-all reported sharply decreased green fodder and hay crops. Corn silage production fell by more than 40 percent in the GDR. Green fodder harvests and silage reserves were lower in 1978 than in 1977 in Poland as that country underwent one of its most severe winters on recent record. Poland's meadow hay production decreased by 6 percent and was reported to be of poor quality due to incessant rainfall during harvest. Czechoslovakia recorded a 24 percent decline in both corn silage and hay production.

Corn silage and forage grass production for green fodder are growing in importance in EE, as closer attention is paid to getting optimal mixes of feed grains and green fodder and/ or hay so as to reduce grain consumption per unit of output. In Poland, close to 400,000 hectares of corn were planted for use as silage corn in 1978, whereas in 1970 only 156,000 hectares were planted. All but 10 percent of this area was on state farms, since Pol­ish private farms still lack the proper harvesting and storage equipment to prepare silage. On state

farms in Poland and elsewhere in EE harvesting is done with field forage harvesters and dump trailers, with silage storage done mostly in pit silos. Spoilage continues to be a problem. In the GDR, for example, such losses are reported to be from 20-30 percent for silage. In Poland, the losses for bulk fodder during harvesting and storage are reported to be 30 to 40 percent.

Strong emphasis is now being put on full utiliza­tion of heretofore neglected meadows and pas­tureland in EE. Pastureland management is being stressed and artificial fertilizers are being applied in some areas. Meadow and pastureland area has differing significance in the various EE countries, ranging from 14 percent of all agricultural land in Hungary to 44 percent in Yugoslavia. In Poland, Czechoslovakia, and the GDR meadows and pas­turelands make up 21, 25, and 20 percent of total agricultural land, respectively. Often small areas of pastureland are used by state or collective farm workers to supplement their private fodder supplies since the large farms cannot adequately use these areas. (Allen A. Terhaar)

LIVESTOCK SECTOR CONTINUES SLOW GROWTH

Herd rebuilding, which began in 1977 following substantial reductions in animal inventories in 1976, continued through 1978 (table 16). Cattle numbers in most EE countries were still below Jan­uary 1975 levels. Hog numbers tended to be recovering faster than cattle numbers. Hog, sheep, and poultry inventories were all higher for the region as a whole. Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria, however, still had fewer hogs than the record num­bers of 1975 and 1976. Poultry inventories continued their steady upward trend.

Production of principal livestock products in EE was up, though not to the expected plan levels in most cases (table 17). Poultry production was strongly upward, and pork, egg and milk production registered gains in all countries. The increase in pork output, while beef production in most EE countries was stagnating or dropping, was influenced by the continued use of a high percentage of homegrown feed and fodder for pig raising, the faster reproduction of pigs, and a strong tradition of pork consumption in many EE countries.Poultry consumption continues its steady upward trend in all EE countries despite higher retail prices for poultry meat compared with pork or beef. Progress is being made in larger scale and more efficient production of broilers and eggs. In turn, this has led to greater demand for high­protein mixed feed for poultry at a time when EE

11

country payment balances are suffering from the high cost of agricultural imports.

Part of this year's shortfall in feed corn is expected to be made up through the use of relatively abundant poor quality food grains and through expanded use of such feeds as treated straw and straw pellets. EE countries, especially the GDR, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, where livestock raising is done increasingly in large specialized operations, continue to emphasize the development of mixed-feed producing capacity. In the GDR there are 92 plants that produce mixed feed. Of total GDR mixed feed production, 31 percent is pelletized. Other EE countries view the GDR mixed feed industry as a model. If they are to continue to develop their mixed feed capacity, however, these countries must produce more of high quality feeds-or continue to make up the difference with imports.

1978 Plans Called for Slower Livestock Growth

EE plans generally called for slower growth of livestock numbers in 1978 than in previous years in order to bring livestock-feed ratios more into line with domestic production. Increased meat production was not to come through larger animal inventories. Instead, efforts were to concentrate on

attaining heavier slaughter weights and greater feeding efficiency. Poland and Romania were the notable exceptions, with the former calling for a 7.6-percent rise in cattle numbers and the latter an increase of 12.6 percent over 1977. Both countries, however, fell far short of their ambitious plans. In contrast, the GDR planned to maintain constant !ivestock numbers and Hungary, a modest Increase.

Plans to increase slaughter weights and feed efficiencies were not entirely successful. Consequently, average slaughter weights declined in some countries. The need to keep domestic meat consumption at least at previous levels and to maintain exports of quality meats caused these negative results. Hungary, for example, reported lower slaughter weights for cattle, and accelerated hog slaughter in the GDR led to lower average weights.

Pricing System-Troublesome

Producer prices for livestock and retail prices for meat in EE countries continue to be fixed by gov­ernment decree and, therefore, tend to be highly inflexible. In the cases of the GDR and Poland, retail prices for meat have not changed in more than 10 years. Hungary and Yugoslavia are notable exceptions as they try to bring consumer prices more in line with actual costs of production. Yet even in those countries meat production remains highly subsidized.

Fixed producer prices for livestock prove highly profitable at times (usually immediately after they are adjusted upward), but become unattractive when the costs of feed or other inputs rise. Then, private farmers or workers with household plots no longer find it economically attractive to raise livestock. The need to import feed for hard cur­rency has made the price question even more com­plicated. There is a reluctance to offer the neces­sary feed and concentrates to the private sector at the same subsidized prices they are offered to the socialized sector. Thus, in Poland, for example, there was an overall rise in livestock numbers and in state purchases in 1978, yet private farms showed declines in animal production. The gains came solely from the highly subsidized socialized sector. Most EE governments gave large producer price rises in 1978-or planned such action in 1979-in order to make animal husbandry more attractive.

EE Reluctant Meat Importer

EE continued to be a large importer of feed and a reluctant importer of livestock and meat products in 1978. Meat that was imported tended to be of low quality and for low prices. In spite of tight

12

domestic supplies, Poland decided not to import any meat or animal fats in 1978, whereas 138,000 tons were imported the previous year. Yugoslavia imported an estimated 30,000 tons of fresh beef and veal in 1978, up 47 percent from 1977 levels. Australia was the primary supplier.

Imports of dairy breeding stock from the United States fell from 6,188 animals in 1977 to 1,625 in 1978. More beef breeding animals were imported, however, with a total of 233 animals compared with only 89 in 1977. The largest importers were Yugoslavia, Hungary, the GDR, and Bulgaria. Imports of beef and dairy breeding animals reflect the current concern in EE countries for upgrading domestic stock and for expanding the use of single­purpose (only beef or only dairy) breeds in their livestock sectors. Chicken breeding stock worth $471,000 was also imported from the United States in 1978, whereas none was imported in 1977. Close to 3.6 million cattle hides were imported from the United States in 1978, up 7 percent from levels of the previous year.

Livestock Situation in Poland Remains Problematic

Despite plans for major increases in livestock production in 1978, this sector continued to be a serious problem for the Polish economy. The gov­ernment strongly emphasized expanding beef production, nevertheless it declined in 1978 by more than 1 percent. Total pork production was reported to have risen as much as 8 percent in 1978 over the disappointing results of 1977, but pork production in the private sector increased at a much slower rate than in the socialized sector. Poultry production was the only truly bright spot, with steady gains over previous years.

Problems of low profitability, low feed efficiency, poor allocation of resources, and subsidization all continued to interfere with performance in the livestock sector. The January 1979 livestock census showed a rise in overall livestock numbers, with cattle up 0.4 percent, pigs up 2.5 percent, and sheep up 3 percent over year-earlier figures. All of this increase, however, took place on state and col­lective farms. On private farms the number of cattle decreased by 0.6 percent and sheep by 0.9 percent. Hog numbers on private farms increased by 1.5 percent, but the number of piglets decreased by 4 percent. Since the private sector in Poland holds over 75 percent of cattle and hogs and 68 percent of sheep, and provides much of its own fod­der, this indicated that additional incentives for livestock production had to be provided to the pri­vate sector. In June 1978, producer prices for hogs were raised by 8.8 percent and for cattle by 16.8 percent, with premium prices given for heavier weight animals. Effective September 1, 1978, the

producer price for milk was raised almost 10 percent.

The price raises were introduced to improve the profitability of livestock production in the private sector. They came, however, at the cost of an ever­widening gap between producer and retail prices for animal products, thus enlarging the state sub­sidy to agriculture, which was 61 percent higher than in 1975. This subsidy is now estimated at more than 270 billion zloties ($8.2 billion) annually-or about 40 percent of the total sales value of goods and services of the food industry.

Despite official pronouncements that private farming is socially acceptable and every means of support should be given to "modern and efficient" private farmers, farmers still experience wide-rang­ing difficulties in acquiring needed inputs such as high protein feeds, equipment, and building materials. At the same time, state and collective farms are often found to be "wasting" high-priced imported feed through their low feeding efficiency. Since such farms are guaranteed feed supplies at heavily subsidized rates, they tend to overuse high­protein feeds in order to inflate their own production results. The persistence of such prob­lems suggests that Poland's livestock production goals will not be reached simply by better weather conditions or even larger feed imports.

A network of "commercial" meat stores was set up in 1977 to sell meat at prices as much as 100 percent higher than those in regular state retail outlets. It was thought that higher prices could be legitimized by assuring greater availability and wider selection in such stores. In 1978 the network of "commercial" stores expanded from 300 to around 450 and was reported to be retailing one­third of all high-quality meats and cold cuts in the country. Waiting lines and short supplies have, however, become the norm for those stores as well. Despite the open admission that heavily subsidized agricultural production is critically undermining the national budget, there is no indication that the Polish government intends to attempt another across-the-board raise in retail prices at this time. It is estimated that personal income in Poland in 1978 increased 2.5 times as fast as the increase in meat supplies.

13

Feed-Livestock Balance Sought in 1 979 Plans

Since a feed-livestock imbalance persists in Eastern Europe, the 1979 annual plans again call for more modest gains in livestock production than in crop production. Total livestock numbers in the GDR and Czechoslovakia are planned to stabilize. Cattle numbers in Poland are to rise 2.2 percent and hog numbers only 0.5 percent. Hungary planned steady hog numbers and an increase of 0.8 percent for cattle. Yugoslavia is expected to show a continuing decline in cattle numbers and a continuing rise in hog numbers. Romania, on the other hand, is the only country which has decided to push for large gains in livestock numbers and plans a 3.5- and 7.3-percent growth in cattle and hogs, respectively. Since these percentages are given with respect to the 1978 planned growth targets (which were not reached), the Romanian plan is probably unrealistic even given a good year.

There are already indications that 1979 could see a reduction in animal inventories instead of the projected slight increases. The northern countries had very severe winter weather and it is suspected that there were stock losses in Poland and the GDR. In Poland during December 1978 (and prior to the very severe weather) 3.5 percent fewer sows were bred than during the previous December. The harsh weather in Poland, combined with the seem­ing disinterest in animal breeding despite producer price increases, does not bode well for that coun­try's livestock sector.

Stress is again being put on improving feed effi­ciencies, reducing mortality, and marketing at opti­mal weights rather than on increasing livestock numbers in order to achieve greater meat production with reduced feed imports. Given the inflexibility of livestock production in EE, these tend to be long-run solutions and cannot be expected to solve the problem of feed imports immediately. Continued emphasis on raising living standards through higher consumption of meat, dairy, and poultry products, while attempting to export high quality meat and while holding retail prices far below production costs, means that the livestock sector will continue to be strained to the limit. (Allen A. Terhaar)

Table 1--Principal plan indicators, Eastern Europe, 1976-80 plan 1), 1978 actual

Item :Bulgaria Czecho- : GDR Hungary Poland Romania Yugo-slovakia; slavia

Percent increase

National Income 1976-80 plan 45 27-29 27-29 30-32 40-42 69 40-44

1978 actual 6 4.3 4 4 2.8 7.5 7 1979 plan 7 4.3 4.3 3-4 2.8 8.8 6

Industrial Pro-duct ion

1976-80 plan 55 32-34 34 33-35 48-50 72 47 1978 actual 7 4.8 5.4 5.2 NA 8.4 9 1979 plan 7.8 4.5 5.5 4 4.9 11.3 7

Agricultural Production

1976-80 plan 25 14-15 15 16-18 16-19 39-54 22 1978 actual 5 1.5 2.5 2 4.2 2.5 -5 1979 plan 7 3.8 1.3 3-3.5 3.9-4.8 5.1-5.6 5

Capital Invest-ment

1976-80 plan 31 36-38 31 32 37-40 83 47 1978 actual 3.6 NA 3 4 0.2 16.2 NA 1979 plan 5.2 NA 5.6 0 -11.5 9.1 7

Real Income 1976-80 plan 20-25 23-25 20-22 18-20 16-18 32 18-19

1978 actual NA 3.4 NA 3 0.4 NA NA 1979 plan 3.2 NA NA 2 1.1-1.4 1.5 2

Jj As defined in USDA, ESCS, FAER No. 153, September 1978.

14

Table 2--Total and agricultural trade, Eastern Europe, 1974-78

Item :Bulgaria : Czecho- GDR Hungary Poland Romania Yugo- Total ;slovakia slavia

Million dollars

Export 1:._/: 1974 3,836 7,053 8,748 5,129 8,315 4,873 3,805 41,760 1975 4,691 8,356 10,088 6,093 10,283 5,341 4,072 48,924 1976 5,382 9.035 11,361 4,932 11,017 6,138 4,878 52,743 1977 5,990 10,562 12,157 5,744 12,279 7,022 5,405 59,159 1978 ]j 6,625 11,470 13,370 5,800 13,470 7,400 5,700 63,835

Import 1:._/: 1974 4,326 7,532 9,646 5,575 10,482 5,144 7' 520 50,225 1975 5,408 9,081 11,290 7,178 12,536 5,342 7,697 58,532 1976 5,626 9,706 13,196 5,528 13' 86 7 6,095 7,367 61,385 1977 6,273 10,958 14,330 6,446 14,616 7,015 9,632 69,270 1978 ]:_/ 6,950 11,735 15,400 7,280 15,320 7,800 9,800 74,285

Balance: 1974 -490 -479 -898 -446 -2,167 -270 -3,715 -8,465 1975 -717 -725 -1,202 -1,085 -2,253 -1 -3,625 -9,608 1976 -244 -671 -1,835 -596 -2,850 43 -2,489 -8,642 1977 -283 -396 -2,173 -702 -2,337 7 -4,227 -10,111 1978 ]j -325 -265 -2,030 -1,480 -1,850 -400 -4,100 -10,450

Agricultural export ;}__/:

1974 723 400 178 1,269 923 855 474 4,822 1975 844 383 181 1,400 916 875 482 5,081 1976 956 331 183 1,549 956 946 537 5,458 1977 916 345 144 1,840 889 981 548 5,663 1978

Agricultural import 1_1:

1974 488 1,392 1,500 816 1,479 745 1,209 7,629 1975 583 1,314 1,566 819 1,630 706 769 7,387 1976 518 1,389 1,788 1,002 1,942 913 917 8,469 1977 471 1,413 1,916 1,215 2,215 991 1,154 9,437 1978

Agricultural trade balance:

1974 235 -992 -1,322 453 -556 110 -735 -2,807 1975 261 -931 -1,385 581 -714 169 -287 -2,306 1976 438 -1,058 -1,605 547 -986 33 -380 -3,011 1977 445 -1,068 -1,772 625 -1,388 -10 -606 -3,774 1978

1/ United Nation's data. 2; Preliminary, 9 months for Bulgaria. Jj FAO data.

15

Table 3--Intra-CEMA trade, percent of total and value, Eastern Europe, 1974-77

Item :Bulgaria : Czecho- GDR Hungary Poland Romania Yugo- Total ;slovakia slavia

Percent

Export: 1974 72.9 62.0 64.8 63.4 53.0 36.5 38.4 52.5 1975 77.4 66.5 69.3 68.5 56.9 38.8 46.2 56.8 1976 78.0 69.4 67.6 56.5 56.9 38.3 41.6 57.4 1977 77.6 68.7 70.6 56.5 57.3 41.7 39.9 62.3

Import: 1974 67.8 60.1 57.5 54.9 42.3 32.9 22.7 44.2 1975 70.7 65.6 63.5 64.0 43.8 37.1 24.2 48.8 1976 75.3 66.2 60.8 52.2 44.9 40.1 30.1 50.7 1977 78.4 66.4 65.6 50.5 49.8 42.0 28.6 58.9

Million rubles

Export: 1974 2,087 3,193 4,227 2,281 3,294 1,327 1,821 18,230 1975 2,703 3,878 5,207 2,741 4,377 1,543 2,344 22,793 1976 3,ll9 4,526 5, 719 3,3ll 4,690 1,754 2,501 25,620 1977 3,595 5,000 6,326 3,859 5,254 2,185 2,703 28,922

Import: 1974 2,189 3,302 4,138 2,ll0 3,311 1,260 2,127 18,437 1975 2,848 4,158 5,343 2,973 4,108 1,479 2,321 23,230 1976 3,151 4,631 5,980 3,361 4,655 1,820 2,764 26,362 1977 3,657 5,244 7,003 3,794 5,439 2,196 3,550 30,883

Balance: 1974 -102 -109 89 171 -17 67 -306 -207 1975 -145 -280 -136 -232 269 64 23 -437 1976 -32 -105 -261 -50 35 -66 -263 -742 1971 -62 -244 -677 65 -185 -11 -847 -1,961

Million dollars

Balance: 1974 -135 -144 ll7 226 -22 88 -404 -273 1975 -191 -369 -179 -306 355 84 30 -576 1976 -42 -138 -344 -66 46 -87 -347 -979 1977 -82 -322 -893 86 -244 -15 -642 -2,112

$1 = 0.758 rubles.

Source: CEMA yearbook.

16

Table 4--u.s. exports to Eastern Europe, total and agricultural, 1971-78

Country 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

M;iJ,;!,;i,Qn Q.QJ J ai:s

Bulgaria: Direct 4.4 3.5 6.5 22.3 29.8 43.3 23.9 48.2 Transshipment Total 4.4 3.5 6.5 22.3 29.8 43.3 23.9 48.2

Czechoslovakia: Direct 38.7 50.0 72.1 48.9 53.1 148.7 74.7 105.5 Transshipment 2.7 9.8 10.1 39.6 49.5 106.4 62.8 3.5 Total 41.4 59.8 82.2 88.5 102.6 255.1 137.5 109.0

GDR: Direct 25.4 17.5 28.0 21.9 17.3 64.9 36.1 170.4 Transshipment 8.8 26.8 107.9 196.8 333.2 354.7 208.7 48.9 Total 34.2 44.3 135.9 218.7 350.5 419.6 244.8 219.3

Hungary: Direct 27.9 22.6 33.0 56.4 76.2 63.1 80.6 98.5 Transshipment .9 .6 14.8 Total 27.9 23.5 33.0 57.0 76.2 63.1 95.4 98.5

Poland: Direct 73.3 113.6 350.0 395.6 583.3 623.4 438.9 680.0 Transshipment .8 3.5 5.3 14.7 15.8 10.2 4.1 12.1 Total 74.1 117.1 355.3 410.3 599.1 633.6 443.0 692.1

Romania: Direct 52.5 69.4 116.6 277.8 190.6 250.3 260.0 318.9 Transshipment 1.6 1-.8 2.6 7.7 4.2 Total 54.1 69.4 118~4 280.4 198.3 250.3 260.0 323.1

Yugoslavia: Direct 173.6 168.4 235.2 310.0 326.3 296.9 356.3 474.9 Transshipment 6.2 1.6 4.5 2.2 16.8 Total 179.8 170.0 239.7 310.0 326.3 299.1 356.3 491.7

Eastern Europe: Direct 395.8 445.0 841.4 1,132.9 1,276.6 1,490.6 1,270.5 1,896.4 Transshipment 20.1 42.6 129.6 254.3 406.2 473.5 290.4 85.5 Total 415.9 487.6 971.0 1,387.2 1,682.8 1,964.1 1,560.9 1,981.9

Percent

Agriculture's Share: Bulgaria 25,2 47.2 38.4 70.9 65.0 73.0 11.2 82.8 Czechoslovakia 73.7 81.7 88.3 79.4 80.6 90.5 82.8 74.0 GDR 82.4 97.1 98.1 98.4 98.1 98.1 98.1 92.5 Hungary 67.9 46.7 86.3 65.2 51.7 35.2 51.4 53.5 Poland 85.1 73.0 81.8 65.6 63.0 77.6 67.5 74.5 Romania 63.9 64.4 64.3 56.7 54.8 68.7 45.5 47.3 Yugoslavia 51.4 56.9 43.6 37.3 12.5 13.3 19.9 26.0 Eastern Europe 64.6 68.0 72.9 63.6 61.0 71.3 57.3 59.1

-- - None or negligible.

Sources: U.S. Foreign Agricultural Trade Statistical Report. U.S. Export Sales.

17

Table 5--Volume and value of U.S. agricultural exports

Commodity and 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 :1978 ]j

countr

1!000 metric tons

Wheat: Bulgaria Czechoslovakia 74 9 143 GDR 146 418 11 335 719 84 316 Hungary Poland 142 837 199 502 698 637 629 Romania 334 29 86 427 171 Yugoslavia 382 396 268 146

Total 716 713 1,597 356 932 1,987 892 945

Feed grains: Bulgaria 64 115 246 3 226 Czechoslovakia 259 98 46 5 769 81 426 GDR 403 556 742 1,164 1,626 2,158 1,248 998 Hungary 24 112 107 Poland 459 306 908 697 1,471 2,101 1,496 2,054 Romania 32 183 121 512 534 239 242 327 Yugoslavia 316 420 52 320

Total 1,469 1,563 1,841 2,494 3,746 5,513 3,182 4,458

Total grains: Bulgaria 64 115 246 3 226 Czechoslovakia 259 98 120 5 10 912 81 426 GDR 403 702 1,160 1,175 1,961 2,877 1,332 1,314 Hungary 24 112 107 Poland 459 448 1,745 896 1,973 2,799 2,133 2,683 Romania 366 212 121 512 620 666 413 327 Yugoslavia 698 816 268 198 320

Total 2,185 2,276 3,438 2,850 4,679 7,500 4,074 5,403

Soybeans: Bulgaria 1 Czechoslovakia 9 15 13 13 5 1 3 GDR 15 58 12 1 Hungary 12 Poland 68 106 148 126 120 56 151 Romania 20 16 220 137 210 Yugoslavia 45 1 96 232

Total 160 121 181 197 141 278 249 594

Vegetable oil: Bulgaria Czechoslovakia GDR 6 1 Hungary Poland 25 37 42 9 12 10 18 Romania Yugoslavia 89 106 32 40 49

Total 114 143 74 49 61 16 1 18

Footnotes and sources at end of table,

18

to Eastern Europe, including transshipments, 1971-78})

Commodity 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 ]j: and

countr

12000 u.s. dollars

:Wheat: Bulgaria

4,958 1,576 21,400 30 Czechoslovakia 19 8,829 33,760 2,244 58,074 106,275 9,539 40,709 GDR

Hungary 8,493 50,223 18,589 80,296 101,640 59,172 72,940 Poland

19,539 1,440 11,793 48,453 15,969 Romania 23,552 22,513 49,562 24,395 Yugoslavia 43,110 41,275 138,503 45,228 151,739 277' 768 84,710 113,689 Total

:Feed grains: 1 9,995 14,780 28,456 173 25,007 Bulgaria

15,840 4,962 3,066 672 39 91,450 8,875 47,151 Czechoslovakia 22,688 30,500 6R,l88 149,918 229,950 253,253 125,042 103,460 GDR

2,498 12,937 12,439 Hungary 26,008 16,331 71,959 86,651 185,606 252,237 142,414 209,515 Poland 1,575 9,621 9,905 70,351 69,585 25,576 20,864 32,415 Romania

18,057 22,537 5 7,510 33,425 Yugoslavia 83,969 83,951 155,621 325,097 499,960 650,972 310,305 463,412 Total

:Total grains: 1 9,995 14,780 28,456 173 25,007 Bulgaria

15,840 4,962 8,024 672 1,615 112,850 8,905 47,151 Czechoslovakia 22,507 39,329 101,948 152,162 288,024 359,528 134,581 144,209 GDR

2,498 12,937 12,439 Hungary 26,008 24,824 122,182 105,240 265,902 353,877 201,586 282,455 Poland 21,114 11,061 9,905 70,351 81,378 74,029 36,833 32,415 Romania 41,609 45,050 49,567 31,905 33,425 Yugoslavia

127,079 125,226 294,124 370,325 651,699 928,740 395,015 577,101 Total

:Soybeans: 69 285 Bulgaria

1,021 1,875 2,490 2,550 1, 230 9,410 6,920 Czechoslovakia 1,662 11,282 3,090 250 GDR 1,452 Hungary 7,665 12,924 28,626 36,151 31,666 10,796 39,827 Poland

5,745 3,506 45,282 38,646 45,031 Romania 5,245 3 314 210 23,476 59,804 Yugoslavia

17,045 14,802 36,930 49,983 36,716 65,618 72,417 144,912 Total

:Vegetable oil: Bulgaria

155 Czechoslovakia 4,149 720 GDR

Hungary 5,701 7,287 13,192 7,373 11,126 4,726 8,101 Poland

Romania 26,743 28,521 8,590 24,963 34,570 Yugoslavia 32,444 35,963 21,782 32,336 45,696 8,875 720 8,101 Total

--Continued

19

Table 5--Volume and value of u.s. agricultural exports

Commodity and 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 ]:_/

countr

1!000 metric tons

Soybean meal and cake: Bulgaria 10 16 24 11 57 Czechoslovakia 79 125 180 165 305 475 341 63 GDR 23 109 216 298 230 414 260 Hungary 148 57 86 121 196 71 94 147 Poland 92 114 369 271 228 392 178 518 Romania 51 168 103 13 98 47 38 Yugoslavia 117 135 168 222 13 182 109 112

Total 469 482 1,080 1,114 1,077 1,459 1,183 1,195

Cotton, excluding linters 1/: Bulgaria Czechoslovakia GDR Hungary Poland 47 51 31 20 32 11 so Romania_ 57 44 72 89 44 17 40 Yugoslavia 2

Total 59 91 123 120 64 32 28 90

Cattle hides !!): Bulgaria 5 71 5 42 26 49 31 52 Czechoslovakia 692 852 804 635 877 678 680 586 GDR 20 20 2 15 9 43 39 Hungary 130 93 113 286 158 270 227 180 Poland 474 545 719 638 788 389 433 349 Romania 571 1,200 1,006 1, 777 1,226 1,651 1,472 1,942 Yugoslavia 228 207 233 220 110 252 472 431

Total 2,120 2,968 2,900 3,600 3,200 3,298 3,358 3,579

20

to Eastern Europe, including transshipments, 1971-78 lJ

Commodity 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 ]:_/ and

countr

12000 u.s. dollars

:Soybean meal and cake:

1,033 3,181 3,544 1,590 11,637 Bulgaria 7,230 14,634 38,465 33,290 50,824 81,131 72,946 11,729 Czechoslovakia 2,153 26,925 45,966 51,964 41,795 96,358 55,106 GDR

15,094 fi,619 14,721 26,226 34,090 14,521 23,505 32,362 Hungary 9,395 13,007 78,576 62,993 37,998 73,853 41,262 108,549 Poland

5,513 28,449 25,455 1,886 17,702 9,403 8,467 Romania 11,940 15,939 35,222 4R,l55 2,327 29,057 22,834 22,686 Yugoslavia 46,845 55,712 222,358 245,266 183,452 259,649 266,308 250,536 Total

:Cotton, exclud-ing linters: Bulgaria Czechoslovakia GDR

25 Hungary 7,736 8,448 9,262 4,131 9,842 3,949 14,726 Poland

8,060 7,387 11,604 38,818 12,206 6,548 13,529 Romania 286 Yugoslavia

8,346 15,123 20,052 48,080 16,337 9,842 10,497 28,280 Total

:Cattle hides: so 911 98 622 275 746 583 1,129 Bulgaria

5,412 13,022 15,904 9,678 8,034 11,116 13,049 13,999 Czechoslovakia 228 274 45 195 159 655 754 GDR 906 1,154 1,686 4,213 1,432 3,486 4,349 4,066 Hungary

3,767 8,580 15,641 9,739 7,425 6,292 9,106 8,320 Poland 4,389 19,617 18,103 24,081 9,693 26,517 26,658 52,223 Romania 1,912 3,072 4,441 4,212 1,548 5,080 10,925 3,586 Yugoslavia

16,664 46,356 56,147 52,590 28,602 53,396 65,325 84,077 Total

:Other: 27 741 2,332 2,008 1,011 804 1,640 2,120 Bulgaria

1,009 14,215 7,695 24,059 23,032 16,382 12,040 7 '761 Czechoslovakia 1,631 3,700 4,121 5,753 3,545 5,863 4,681 2,551 GDR 1,480 3,193 9,562 6,746 4,122 4,225 8,252 3,780 Hungary

10,547 11,187 23,799 38,402 26,318 32,555 43,236 53,584 Poland 1,016 1,096 2,300 286 35 8,446 216 1,120 Romania 4,646 4,151 6,614 6,493 4,665 5,504 13,704 8,268 Yugoslavia

20,356 38,283 56,423 83,747 62' 728 73,779 83,769 /:9,190 Total

:Total agricul-tural exports:

1,111 1,652 2,499 15,806 19,610 31,596 2,681 39' 8%1 Bulgaria 30,512 48,863 72,578 70,249 84,735 280,889 113.860 80,640 Czechoslovakia 28,181 43,024 133,268 215,208 343,728 411,494 240,085 202,876 GDR 18,932 10,966 28,467 37,185 40,463 22,232 49,043 52,672 Hungary 63,083 85,545 290,464 269,160 384,566 491,941 299,139 515~ 562 Poland 34,579 44,674 76,106 158,991 108,704 171,976 118,304 152,785 Romania 92,381 96,736 104,434 115,728 43,424 39,851 70,939 121,769 Yugoslavia

268,779 331,460 707,816 882,327 1,025,230 1,399,979 894,051 1,172,197 Total

1/ Including transshipments through Belgium, Canada, Netherlands, and West Germany. 2! Preliminary 3! Thousand RNBL. il Thousand pieces.

Sources: United States Census Bureau; U.S. Foreign Agricultural Statistical Report, USDA/ESCS/FDCD; Export Sales Report, USDA/OGSM.

21

Table 6--Volume and value of U.S. agricultural imports from Eastern Europe, 1971-78

Commodities and 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

countr

1~000 metric tons

Processed meat: Bulgaria 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 Czechoslovakia 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 1 GDR Hungary 2.1 2,8 2.3 3,6 4.6 6,7 7.0 8 Poland 25.0 30.3 28.1 29.4 38.3 38.1 34.1 39 Romania 0.2 2.0 3.3 4.9 3.6 5.5 6.0 7 Yugoslavia 5.2 6.9 8.7 9.0 12.1 13.8 15.7 20

Total 33.5 42.6 42.5 47.4 59.0 64.8 63.4 75

1,000 u.s. dollars

Processed meat: Bulgaria 190 286 284 383 Czechoslovakia 1,287 433 312 736 443 1,960 2,112 3,787 GDR 57 25 40 106 100 202 Hungary 3,327 4,787 5,153 7,418 12,475 19,798 20,013 27,248 Poland 43,398 52,801 71,995 69,918 105,965 126,993 107' 704 136,042 Romania 287 2,845 6,319 9,930 8,349 12,998 14,756 21,932 Yugoslavia 8,618 11,131 22,563 20,758 35,652 44,342 47,738 65,863

Total 57,164 72,308 106,342 109,044 163,307 206,197 192,423 255,074

Other products: Bulgaria 1.606 2,055 3,199 3,361 3,693 10,688 23,414 24,789 Czechoslovakia 637 667 967 1,645 1,434 2,004 3,318 2,357 GDR 179 159 556 1,003 532 797 1,587 2,648 Hungary 1,199 875 1,459 2,262 1,198 2,769 3,470 5,028 Poland 6,220 11,771 15,447 17,879 12,550 17,225 17,673 18,528 Romania 1,414 2,434 2,152 1,820 3,800 3,080 5,784 9,665 Yugoslavia 22,471 21,081 21,867 24,813 26,788 32,703 37,951 47,547

Total 33,726 39,042 45,647 52,783 49,995 69,266 93,197 110,562

Total: Bulgaria 1,796 2,341 3,199 3,645 4,076 10,688 23,414 24,789 Czechoslovakia 1,924 1,100 1,279 2,381 1,877 3,964 5,430 6,144 GDR 236 184 556 1,003 572 903 1,687 2,850 Hungary 4,526 5,662 6,612 9,680 13,673 22,567 23,483 32,276 Poland 49,618 64,572 87,442 87,797 118,515 144,218 125,377 154,570 Romania 1,701 5,279 8,471 11,750 12,149 16,078 20,540 31,597 Yugoslavia 31,089 32,212 44,430 45,571 62,440 77,045 85,689 113,410

Total 90,890 111,350 151,989 161,827 213,302 275,463 285,620 365,636

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census.

22

Table 7--Grain trade,

Commodity Imports and

country 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

11 000 metric tons

Total grains: Bulgaria 193 1 140 643 659 438 183 Czechoslovakia 2,226 1,718 1,737 1,171 970 2,187 1,205 GDR 2,815 3,820 3,074 2,821 3,422 5,066 2,743 Hungary 832 800 282 408 189 258 309 Poland 3,023 3,194 3,317 4,155 4,025 6,131 5,754 Romania 427 241 349 1,210 1,230 1,606 1,800 Yugoslavia 1,032 990 283 986 22 884 597

Total 10,548 10,764 9,182 11,394 10,517 16,570 12,591

Wheat: Bulgaria 150 77 105 32 119 Czechoslovakia 1,318 1,193 1,066 671 525 689 374 GDR 1,867 2,040 1,594 1,219 1,130 1,691 1,100 Hungary 401 35 2 30 58 4 Poland 1,910 1,274 1,620 1,758 1,477 2,311 2,599 Romania 334 29 184 302 402 925 1,000 Yugoslavia 547 448 225 845 862 519

Total 6,527 5,019 4,689 4,874 3,669 6,568 5, 715

Barley: Bulgaria 8 53 201 278 Czechoslovakia 133 112 132 90 82 158 272 GDR 187 675 298 104 390 795 581 Hungary 209 548 199 333 101 153 31 Poland 616 1,332 780 1,135 1,376 742 1,254 Romania 32 7 216 53 20 23 Yugoslavia 125 66 10 5 15 1 10

Total 1,310 2,733 1,479 2,084 2,295 1,869 2,171

Corn: Bulgaria 33 68 359 222 375 61 Czechoslovakia 480 302 469 332 283 1,260 471 GDR 656 1,031 1,086 1,328 1,795 2,346 940 Hungary 162 107 2 6 2 20 247 Poland 267 337 684 765 634 2,035 1,401 Romania 183 77 652 595 102 300 Yugoslavia 308 417 42 81

Total 1,906 2,377 2,428 3,523 3,531 6,138 3,420

Other coarse grains: Bulgaria 15 49 24 3 Czechoslovakia 215 41 4 9 4 GDR 61 30 45 119 69 192 106 Hungary 42 100 67 55 42 14 Poland 156 181 179 434 464 924 443 Romania 11 118. 501 427 Yugoslavia 26 51 1 9 2 11 36

Total 500 403 318 621 753 1,666 1,023

Rice: Bulgaria 2 1 4 6 5 7 Cze-choslovakia 80 70 70 74 71 80 84 GDR 44 44 51 51 38 42 12 Hungary 18 10 14 12 14 13 27 Poland 74 70 54 63 74 19 57 Romania 61 29 70 40 62 58 50 Yugoslavia 26 8 5 46 5 10 32

Total 305 232 268 292 269 329 262

Footnotes and sources at end of table 8,

24

Eastern Europe, 1971-77

Exports Conunodity and

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 country

1 2000 metric tons

:Total grains: 558 834 367 149 195 453 446 Bulgaria

35 35 33 207 73 198 34 Czechoslovakia 390 325 343 312 410 386 329 GDR 144 539 1,732 1,836 1,266 1,673 1,026 Hungary

95 208 410 262 104 70 22 Poland 702 900 1,126 712 1,163 1,633 1,700 Romania

70 22 389 343 68 486 335 Yugoslavia 1,994 2,863 4,400 3,821 3,279 4,900 3,892 Total

:Wheat: 324 509 220 139 113 253 271 Bulgaria

Czechoslovakia 160 61 82 68 73 75 55 GDR

95 369 925 934 922 707 790 Hungary Poland

236 543 776 641 705 1,385 1,200 Romania 2 4 5 Yugoslavia

817 1,482 2,003 1,786 1,813 2,420 2,321 Total

:Barley: 40 16 44 2 Bulgaria

33 35 33 33 48 183 34 Czechoslovakia 164 167 173 152 62 162 105 GDR

122 88 14 1 9 Hungary 78 129 43 68 29 49 22 Poland

Romania 1 103 33 11 9 Yugoslavia

276 493 456 300 150 448 172 Total

:Corn: 230 285 130 10 82 155 173 Bulgaria

Czechoslovakia GDR

49 44 714 848 344 966 216 Hungary Poland

466 357 350 71 458 248 500 Romania 63 20 277 291 52 459 326 Yugoslavia

808 706 1,471 1,220 936 1,828 1,215 Total

:Other coarse grains: 4 1 1 Bulgaria 2 174 25 15 Czechoslovakia

66 97 88 92 275 149 169 GDR 4 5 40 11 Hungary

17 79 367 194 75 21 Poland Romania

4 2 9 15 5 18 4 Yugoslavia 93 182 470 515 380 204 184 Total

:Rice: Bulgaria Czechoslovakia GDR Hungary Poland Romania Yugoslavia

Total

25

Table 8--Trade in selected agricultural

Conunodity Imports

and country 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

1!000 metric tons

Oilseeds: Bulgaria. 6 5 2 5 3 4 3 Czechoslovakia 132 120 140 129 114 139 135 GDR 208 197 133 129 124 50 61 Hungary 64 6 5 5 2 5 6 Poland 88 108 163 206 134 90 22 Romania 20 19 20 20 20 220 116 Yugoslavia 51 9 12 46 12 27 90

Total 569 464 475 540 409 535 433

Vegetable oil, edible: Bulgaria 1 2 2 Czechoslovakia 55 58 40 46 49 53 44 GDR 99 161 98 127 97 104 111 Hungary 30 7 21 20 17 17 15 Poland 65 69 ·66 68 61 87 82 Romania 1 1 1 5 7 10 6 Yugoslavia 134 128 48 59 130 106 51

Total 385 424 274 325 363 379 309

Oilseed meal: Bulgaria 137 179 170 302 218 324 224 Czechoslovakia 351 498 604 564 616 671 592 GDR 637 834 769 829 875 875 998 Hungary 368 377 376 577 505 542 594 Poland 317 545 719 794 948 1,024 1,052 Romania 51 117 215 227 273 320 230 Yugoslavia 188 150 200 272 150 247 211

Total 2,049 2,700 3,053 3,565 3,585 4,003 3,901

Cotton: Bulgaria 62 56 61 58 51 48 61 Czechoslovakia 106 108 104 119 116 95 117 GDR 91 91 86 99 100 79 102 Hungary 66 72 73 74 93 87 68 Poland 145 157 145 152 160 145 176 Romania 91 97 108 104 111 108 101 Yugoslavia 79 86 94 109 85 103 103

Total 640 667 671 715 716 665 728

Hides, cattle ]J: Bulgaria 486 384 366 443 377 393 198 Czechoslovakia 2,443 2,451 2,452 2,122 2,147 2,208 2,288 GDR 'l:,/ 805 835 1,160 695 710 760 865 Hungary 1,063 1,476 1,716 1,852 1,648 1,601 2,132 Poland 2/ 2,265 2,665 3,050 2,575 2,350 1,735 2,270 Romania- 1,675 2,335 3,244 1,769 1,761 1,899 1,820 Yugoslavia Y 1,020 1,165 1,000 .1,150 1,095 1,300 1,905

Total . 9, 757 11,311 12,988 10,606 10,088 9,896 11,478

Footnotes and sources at end of table.

26

commodities, Eastern Europe, 1971-77

Exports Commodity and

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 .. 1978 1979 country

1 2 000 metric tons

:Oilseeds: 95 95 35 2 1 11 22 Bulgaria

3 2 3 2 1 1 6 Czechoslovakia GDR

80 36 27 30 ·45 41 54 Hungary 61 10 57 3 76 175 78 Poland 25 78 42 29 Romania 28 15 6 22 3 3 2 Yugoslavia

292 236 170 88 126 231 162 Total

:vegetable oil, edible: 20 26 19 23 21 23 22 Bulgaria

.8 1 1 1 1 1 3 Czechoslovakia GDR

44 41 41 39 38 39 so Hungary 17 62 47 47 57 76 101 Poland

132 129 142 165 141 87 130 Romania 6 1 3 7 Yugoslavia

227 260 253 282 258 226 306 Total

:Oilseed meal: 36 40 42 68 10 Bulgaria 14 29 27 27 35 11 22 Czechoslovakia

GDR 98 60 117 171 163 366 267 Hungary 30 14 6 4 2 18 Poland

Romania 8 9 6 2 Yugoslavia

186 152 186 204 202 453 319 Total

:Cotton: 9 10 6 2 1 2 3 Bulgaria

4 Czechoslovakia GDR Hungary Poland Romania

9 10 6 2 1 Yugoslavia

6 3 Total

:Hides, cattle 1_/: 137 2 7 12 Bulgaria

Czechoslovakia GDR

140 130 75 85 Hungary

140 80 Poland ]j Romania

277 132 75 85 140 Yugoslavia

7 92 Total

--Continued

27

Table 8--Trade in selected agricultural

Conunodity Imports and

country 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

1 2000 metric tons

Meat and meat products ~/: Bulgaria 15 10 15 39 19 17 11 Czechoslovakia 76 46 22 41 32 22 31 GDR 56 47 43 25 23 20 30 Hungary 16 14 27 19 12 27 10 Poland 153 65 55 6 16 46 104 Romania 46 43 8 10 3 11 3 Yugoslavia 5 11 46 20 8 10 28

Total 367 236 216 160 113 153 217

Sugar!!/: Bulgaria 305 160 232 212 295 330 350 Czechoslovakia 197 143 148 165 48 109 64 GDR 433 331 260 285 166 189 234 Hungary 198 145 174 200 198 151 91 Poland 43 22 28 50 41 16 30 Romania 119 76 78 90 48 119 204 Yugoslavia 155 295 380 69 147 316 84

Total :1,450 1,172 1,300 1,071 943 1,230 1,057

Tobacco: Bulgaria 6 12 5 7 9 4 5 Czechoslovakia 17 21 18 16 14 15 16 GDR 19 23 18 20 20 16 18 Hungary 8 9 9 9 8 7 9 Poland 3 3 7 4 10 11 7 Romania 5 2 2 7 2 2 1 Yugoslavia 5 6 2 2 6 2 4

Total 63 76 61 65 69 57 60

28

commodities, Eastern Europe, 1971-77

Exports Commodity and

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 country

1 1000 metric tons

:Meat and meat products ]..! :

67 74 65 61 99 118 106 Bulgaria 30 25 50 9 16 10 Czechoslovakia 60 71 68 39 69 110 76 GDR

162 163 134 201 249 210 293 Hungary 174 173 194 234 209 157 142 Poland

55 69 111 133 165 165 194 Romania 102 108 91 57 85 88 62 Yugoslavia 650 683 713 734 892 748 873 Total

:Sugar !!./: 36 Bulgaria

320 229 225 189 227 72 171 Czechoslovakia 144 158 120 186 64 68 92 GDR

2 10 7 2 0 Hungary 88 332 422 180 72 352 272 Poland 11 170 105 48 28 0 164 Romania 42 1 Yugoslavia

643 889 872 613 398 494 700 Total

:Tobacco: 62 63 69 69 71 70 70 Bulgaria

3 1 2 2 1 Czechoslovakia 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 GDR 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 Hungary

12 9 12· 13 10 10 10 Poland 1 3 6 6 9 10 10 Romania

20 17 18 19 25 25 19 Yugoslavia 103 100 110 112 118 119 112 Total

= No information reported, negligible, or none.

1/ Thousand pieces. 2! Converted from metric tons to pieces at 20 kilograms per piece. Jl Includes poultry meat. "§; Raw value. From the International Sugar Organization.

Sources: Statistical yearbooks of respective countries, CEMA yearbook, FAO Trade book, Statistical yearbooks of trading partners •

29

Table g--Eastern Europe: Unit prices of U.S. exports in selected commodities, 1971-78

Soybean Soybean Year Wheat Corn Soybeans

meal meal/ corn

Dollar per ton - - - - - Price ratio

1971 60 59 114 100 1.69

1972 57 53 123 116 2.19

1973 99 78 204 206 2.64

1974 125 130 235 220 1.69

1975 154 132 257 172 1.30

1976 136 117 203 179 1.53

1977 94 97 266 213 2.20

1978 119 105 245 210 2.00

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

30

Table 10--0ilseed meal imports, Eastern Europe, 1975-78

. . : . · Czecho- • Yugo-Year : Imports :Bulgar~a : 1 k" : GDR : Hungary : Poland : Romania : : Total :s ova ~a : slavia

:

bOOO tons :

1975 : Oilseed meal : 218 652 875 505 948 268 150 3,616 Soybean meal : 178 (512) (725) (417) (539) (268) (139) (2' 778) United States exports 11 : 24 305 298 196 228 13 13 1,077 Imports from the United States II : NA 345 NA 216 193 NA 50 NA

: 1976 : Oilseed meal : 324 671 875 542 1,024 320 247 4,003

Soybean meal : 220 (588) (720) 498 567 320 247 (3,160) United States exports 11 : 11 475 230 71 392 98 182 1,459 Imports from the United States II : NA 338 NA 123 378 NA 109 NA

1977 : Oilseed meal : 330 (633) (898) (594) 1,551 (230) 211 (4,047) Soybean meal : (260) ( 489) (800) (550) 756 (230) 211 (3,296) United States exports ll : 0 341 414 94 178 47 109 1,183 Imports from the United States II : NA 258 NA 117 189 NA 86 NA

: 1978 : Oilseed meal : (200) (500) (700) 690 (900) (100) (200) (3,290) w Soybean meal : -- (2,600) .... : -- -- -- -- -- --

United States exports : 57 63 260 147 518 38 112 1,196 : :

ll As reported by the United States Census Bureau plus estimated transshipments. Il As reported by the recipient countries.

Estimate. NA = Not available.

Not estimated.

Year

1974

1975

1975

1975

1976

1976

1976

1977

1977

19 78 l)

1978 1/

ll Preliminary.

Table 11--Domestic production and utilization of oilseed meal, Eastern Europe, 1974-78

Oilseed meal

Domestic production: Soybean meal Sunflower meal Rapeseed meal

Total Imports:

Total meal Total seed in meal equivalent

Total availability

Domestic production: Soybean meal Sunflower meal Rapeseed meal

Total Imports:

Total meal Total seed in meal equivalent

Total availability

Domestic production: Soybean meal Sunflower meal Rapeseed meal

Total Imports:

Total meal Total seed in meal equivalent

Total availability

Domestic production: Soybean meal Sunflower meal Rapeseed meal

Total Imports:

Total meal Total seed in meal equivalent

Total availability

Domestic production: Soybean meal Sunflower meal Rapeseed meal

Total

32

Eastern Europe

:1,000 tons

244 444 479

1,167

3,616 181

4,964

248 486 585

1,319

4,003 311

5,633

283 514 631

1,428

4,047 279

5,754

275 594 534

1,403

3,290 550

5,243

350 610 540

1,500

Table 12--Area of grains, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 1/

Commodity Total and :Bulgaria: Czecho-: GDR Hungary: Poland :Romania Yugo- Eastern

year : :slovakia: : slavia Europe ,»

(

1!000 hectares

Wheat: 1971 1,013 1,103 633 1,273 2,060 2,501 1,929 10,512 1972 961 1,197 690 1,317 2,048 2,523 1,924 10,660 1973 934 1,235 696 1,294 1,962 2,358 1,697 10,176 1974 861 1,276 728 1,324 2,022 2,389 1,842 10,442 1975 819 1,183 688 1,251 1,842 2,345 1,615 9,743 1976 793 1,278 762 1,325 1,832 2,388 1, 723 10,101 1977 774 1,287 732 1,311 1,834 2,269 1,604 9,811 1978 750 1,274 730 1,324 1,852 2,280 1, 711 9,921

Rye: 1971 19 234 668 127 3, 711 48 110 4,917 1972 17 232 646 119 3,543 42 104 4,703 1973 16 225 646 107 3,416 34 96 4,540 1974 15 219 637 106 3,138 (40) 91 4,246 1975 17 191 593 104 2,792 (40) 84 3,821 1976 13 186 600 93 2,934 (40) 76 3,941 1977 13 212 619 91 3,116 (40) 69 4,160 1978 10 210 600 90 3,030 40 62 4,042

Barley: 1971 434 851 656 298 899 330 280 3,748 1972 446 854 618 291 1,016 327 290 3,842 1973 458 873 692 287 1,083 315 328 4,036 1974 477 867 779 271 1,230 402 330 4,356 1975 575 980 929 257 1,335 442 360 4,878 1976 524 857 960 228 1,210 410 293 4,482 1977 529 856 997 224 1,235 595 306 4,742 1978 650 850 975 225 1,203 721 273 4,897

Oats: 1971 75 344 230 45 1,330 128 265 2,407 1972 65 323 247 48 1,359 121 256 2,419 1973 46 278 238 37 1,271 105 251 2,226 1974 47 226 222 33 1,182 85 249 2,044 1975 50 221 243 45 1,291 70 270 2,190 1976 44 198 190 39 1,115 45 232 1,863 1977 57 174 153 32 1,097 54 231 1,798 1978 45 151 175 27 1,021 42 210 1,671

--Continued

33

Table 12--Area of grains, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 ll

Commodity : . : Czecho-: and :Bulgar1a: k" : GDR

•. ..slova 1a .• Hungary: Poland :Romania

year

1,000 hectares

Corn: 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Rice: 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Other coarse grains ]j:

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Total grain: 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

655 689 627 523 652 731 702 720

17 15 16 17 17 17 16 16

1 1 1

2,214 2,194 2,095 1,940 2,135 2,122 2,091 2,191

142 148 169 167 158 204 203 200

1

2,674 2,754 2,781 2,755 2,733 2, 723 2,732 2,685

3 9 4 1

132 120 101

76 58 29 19 20

2,322 2,330 2,377 2,444 2,513' 2,541 2,520 2,500

1,321 1,392 1,461 1,461 1,413 1,339 1,281 1,275

26 28 27 28 27 28 28 23

12 8 5 3 3

3,090 3,195 3,213 3,235 3,105 3,057 2,970 2,967

No information reported, negligible, or none. ) = Estimates.

1/ 1978 data are preliminary.

5 6 4 5

15 52 57 33

447 513 514 531 589 625 663 713

8,452 8,485 8,250 8,108 7,864 7,768 8,002 7,852

3,131 3,196 2,957 2,963 3,305 3,378 3,318 3,223

28 27 23 23 22 21 20 20

2 2 3 1

15 68 12 12

6,168 6,238 5,793 5,901 6,239 6,350 6,308 6,338

1} Includes buckwheat, millet, spelt, mixed grains, and sorghum.

34

Yugo­slavia

2,422 2,383 2,377 2,256 1,615 2,374 2,321 2,128

8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8

18 14 15 10

9 7 6 6

5,032 4,978 4, 771 4,785 4,709 4, 713 4,545 4,398

Total Eastern Europe

7,679 7,823 7,599 7,376 7,906 8.078 7,882 7,579

79 77 73 75 74 74 72 67

600 650 635 630 679 734 703 754

29,952 30,174 29,280 29,168 29,298 29,273 29 '168 28,931

Table !}--Production of grains, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 1./

Commodity : . . Total . · Czecho- · Yugo-and :Bulgar1a: 1 k' : GDR Hungary: Poland :Romania Eastern

. ,s ova 1a, slavia EuroEe ~ear . . .

1,000 metric tons

Wheat: 1971 3,095 3,878 2,490 3,915 5,456 5,595 5,604 30,033 1972 3,582 4,017 2,744 4,089 5,174 6,041 4,843 30,490 1973 3,258 4,646 2,861 4,498 5,807 5,487 4,750 31,307 1974 2,911 5,059 3,154 4,968 6,409 4,999 _6' 282 33,782 1975 2, 771 4,202 2,736 4,005 5,207 4,860 4,404 28,185 1976 3,152 4,807 2,715 5,143 5,745 6, 723 5,979 34,264 1977 3,028 5,214 2,914 5,315 5' 308 6,463 5,595 33,837 1978 3,450 5,600 3,050 5,665 6,022 6,212 5,355 35,354

Rye: 1971 24 619 1,754 180 7,827 65 134 10,603 1972 21 634 1,904 171 8,149 58 120 11,057 1973 19 690 1,699 175 8,268 42 118 11' 011 1974 21 671 1,949 175 7,881 50 120 10,867 1975 18 530 1,563 147 6,270 52 98 8,678 1976 15 561 1,455 516 6,922 49 105 9,263 1977 15 641 1,644 142 6,250 50 87 8,829 1978 15 620 1,800 140 7,427 50 81 10,133

Barley: 1971 1,253 2,851 2,286 782 2,450 789 464 10,875 1972 1,427 2,651 2,592 802 2,750 838 487 11,547 1973 1,368 2,962 2,848 871 3,158 730 676 12,613 1974 1,636 3,375 3,422 894 3,908 916 794 14,945 1975 1,699 3,114 3,682 699 3,638 952 703 14,487 1976 1,781 2,901 3,456 747 3,617 1,231 653 14,386 1977 1,481 3,207 3,681 706 3,396 1,859 650 14,980 1978 1,500 3,600 4,100 760 3,633 2,285 560 16,438

Oats: 1971 102 902 807 85 3,195 161 312 5,564 1972 75 726 890 60 3,212 111 260 5,334 1973 51 740 805 67 3,220 102 298 5,283 1974 67 687 922 78 3,244 91 353 5,442 1975 56 591 780 87 2,920 57 368 4,859 1976 65 379 506 86 2,695 55 320 4,106 1977 88 454 411 64 2,552 61 309 3,939 1978 60 460 500 73 2,490 74 284 3,941

--Continued

35

Table 13--Production of grains, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 1./

Commodity . Czecho-

: Yugo-

Total and :Bulgar1a: 1 k. : GDR Hungary:Poland :Romania Eastern

year : :s ova 1a: slavia Euro:ee

1,000 metric tons

Corn: 1971 2,518 524 9 4,674 13 7,850 9,443 23,031 1972 2,974 642 27 5,537 10 9,817 7,930 26,937 1973 2,586 619 13 5, 911 13 7,397 8,253 24,792 1974 1,627 574 3 6,195 19 7,440 8,031 23,889 1975 2,822 843 2 7,088 79 9,241 9,389 29,464 1976 3,031 514 5,148 231 11,583 9,106 24,613 1977 2,513 792 5,939 232 10' 114 9,870 29,462 1978 2,300 630 6,672 119 10,159 7,555 27,435

Rice: 1971 67 67 66 36 236 1972 47 61 45 31 184 1973 62 69 50 32 213 1974 58 56 53 31 198 1975 68 69 68 37 242 1976 41 32 37 23 133 1977 68 35 47 36 186 1978 50 27 65 30 172

Other coarse grains ]) : 1971 1 934 929 2 18 1,344 1972 1 379 1,140 3 15 1,538 1973 276 1,392 3 15 1,686 1974 254 24 1,516 2 13 1,809 1975 148 13 1,443 36 11 1,651 1976 58 9 1,653 112 9 1,841 1977 43 5 1,661 20 7 1,736 1978 50 5 1,827 20 7 1,909

Total grain: 1971 7,060 8, 774 7,740 9,703 19,870 14,528 14,011 81,686 1972 8,127 8,670 8,536 10,720 20,435 16,913 13,686 87,087 1973 7,344 9,657 8,503 11,591 21,858 13,811 14,142 86,906 1974 6,322 10,366 9,703 12,390 22,977 13,551 15,624 90,933 1975 7,432 9,280 8,910 12,108 19,557 15,266 15,010 87,565 1976 8,086 9,162 8,190 11' 321 20' 863 19,790 16,195 93,607 1977 7,193 10,308 8,693 12,206 19,399 18,614 16,554 92,969 1978 7,375 10,910 9,500 13,342 21,518 18,865 13,872 95,382

= No information reported, negligible, or none.

1./ 1978 data are preliminary. ]) Includes buckwheat, millet, spelt, mixed grains, and sorghum.

36

Table 14--Area of selected crops, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 !/

Conrrnodity . . Czecho-' Yugo-

Total and .Bu1garla: 1 k" : GDR Hungary: Poland Romania:

s1avia :Eastern

year : :s ova 1a: :Europe

1!000 hectares

Potatoes: 1971 29 332 658 129 2,669 290 326 4,433 1972 30 322 646 118 2,656 296 315 4,383 1973 27 305 650 106 2,678 284 317 4,367 1974 31 280 635 108 2,684 295 321 4,354 1975 30 251 574 100 2,581 289 314 4,139 1976 29 240 599 90 2,466 289 308 4,021 1977 34 237 587 99 2,437 295 315 4,004 1978 34 221 588 94 2,360 251 298 3,846

Sugarbeets: 1971 44 185 211 73 421 178 85 1,197 1972 55 187 222 79 438 197 79 1,257 1973 60 197 229 92 445 234 86 1,343 1974 61 205 234 98 440 218 104 1,360 1975 71 217 266 127 496 247 108 1,539 1976 71 214 267 129 550 236 107 1,576 1977 73 216 269 122 532 255 U2 1,589 1978 73 219 263 122 528 250 126 1,581

Sunflower-seed:

1971 267 3 118 548 183 1,119 1972 274 4 108 554 171 1,111 1973 252 4 103 512 224 1,095 1974 262 3 113 509 201 1,088 1975 238 4 129 511 194 1,076 1976 226 6 135 521 175 1,063 1977 237 9 138 513 209 1,106 1978 235 9 153 512 249 1,158

Rapeseed: 1971 52 104 41, 362 9 571 1972 53 111 50 276 9 499 1973 57 122 50 315 5 549 1974 45 123 33 258 13 5 477 1975 63 132 46 309 13 7 570 1976 63 130 52 398 7 11 661 1977 73 125 60 400 4 20 682 1978 79 130 60 337 4 38 648

Soybeans: 1971 18 147 5 170 1972 14 109 4 127 1973 19 183 9 211 1974 25 2 15 238 9 289 1975 36 3 25 121 15 200 1976 56 3 39 155 31 284 1977 (55) 6 (35) 171 32 299 1978 100 6 30 202 35 373

--Continued

37

Table 14--Area of selected crops, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 1./

Commodity . Czecho-· Yugo-Total

and :Bulgar1a: 1 k" : GDR Hungary: Poland Romania: :Eastern : :s ova 1a: slavia :Europe year

1,000 hectares

Tobacco: 1971 115 4 3 14 42 33 49 260 1972 122 4 3 15 46 39 57 286 1973 119 4 3 17 48 52 57 300 1974 123 4 3 17 52 53 57 309 1975 127 4 3 16 50 57 63 320 1976 121 4 3 15 60 53 70 326 1977 122 4 3 16 55 51 65 316 1978 124 4 3 16 44 51 58 300

Corn silage: 1971 214 313 334 270 177 237 36 1,581 1972 244 373 353 239 220 243 35 1, 707 1973 312 384 321 250 277 415 36 1,995 1974 387 435 328 237 384 359 36 2,166 1975 187 439 350 256 438 203 36 1,909 1976 120 450 354 331 538 117 36 2,096 1977 230 442 404 325 582 288 39 2,310 1978

Hay: 1971 401 1,220 543 657 1,614 1,173 2/615 6,223 1972 392 1,097 529 698 1,532 1,196 2./644 6,088 1973 410 1 062 527 696 1,624 1,255 2./677 6,251 1974 425 1,015 486 676 1,655 1,163 2./672 6,092 1975 463 972 473 648 1,813 1,147 2./672 6,188 1976 452 944 464 661 1,735 1,052 2./659 5,967 1977 437 945 509 669 1,588 980 I_/659 5,787 1978

Feed roots: 1971 20 57 181 34 249 26 35 602 1972 20 53 183 32 236 53 35 612 1973 17 44 155 26 249 69 36 596 1974 16 39 140 25 256 80 36 592 1975 16 30 116 22 252 77 37 550 1976 16 25 55 21 256 87 35 495 1977 15 21 77 21 242 90 35 501 1978

No information reported, negligible, or none. ) = Estimates.

1/ 1978 data are preliminary. 2.; Includes only lucerne, clover and vetch.

38

Table 15--Production of selected crops, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 1/

Commodity : . . Total and ·B 1 . · Czecho-' GDR Hungary: Poland Romania: Yugo- Eastern . u gar1a: 1 k' : slavia year :s ova 1a: EuroEe

1,000 metric tons

Potatoes: 1971 404 4,621 9,411 1,488 39,801 3,783 2,952 62,460 1972 382 5,058 12,140 1,310 48,735 3, 672 2,406 73,703 1973 328 5,087 11,401 1,163 51,928 2,644 2,974 75,525 1974 345 4,522 13,404 1,364 48,519 4,119 3;127 75,400 1975 318 3,565 7,673 1,268 46,429 2, 716 2,394 64,363 1976 351 4,214 6,816 1,087 49,951 4,788 2,828 70,035 1977 383 3,760 10,313 1,335 41,148 4,207 3,034 64,180 1978 390 3,800 11,000 1,584 46,596 4,430 2,500 70,300

Sugarbeets: 1971 1,516 5,832 5,128 2,023 12,557 3' 975 2,961 33,992 1972 1,951 6,884 7,223 2,908 14,341 5,581 3,274 42,162 1973 1,719 6,163 6,682 2,752 13,664 4,380 3,338 38' 698 1974 1,611 8,219 6,959 3,707 12,971 4,947 4,300 42,714 1975 1,758 7,734 6,414 4,089 15,707 4,905 4,213 44,820 1976 2,327 5,248 5,106 3,942 15,107 6, 911 4, 711 43,352 1977 1,751 8,229 8,578 3,889 15,640 6,246 5,287 49,620 1978 1,650 7,200 7,700 4,200 15,655 5,800 5,150 47,355

Sunflower-seed:

1971 462 5 149 791 347 1,754 1972 494 6 132 850 277 1,759 1973 448 7 152 756 434 1,797 1974 368 3 120 681 298 1,470 1975 426 4 154 728 272 1,584 1976 362 6 185 799 319 1,671 1977 423 11 212 807 479 1,932 1978 380 12 222 815 544 1,973

Rapeseed: 1971 101 197 71 595 18 982 1972 107 234 52 430 14 837 1973 117 246 68 512 8 951 1974 94 298 45 523 16 12 988 1975 131 363 65 726 17 14 1,316 1976 134 320 66 980 11 24 1,535 1977 162 308 89 708 6 40 1,313 1978 178 320 85 690 6 75 1,354

Soybeans: 1971 2/12 165 4 181 1972 2/12 186 6 204 1973 2/30 244 13 287 1974 33 5 14 298 14 364 1975 80 6 41 213 30 370 1976 100 5 (55) 213 48 421 1977 90 11 (SO) 191 67 409 1978 170 12 50 225 60 517

--Continued

39

Table 15--Production of selected crops, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 1./

Commodity . . . Total · · Czecho-' Yugo-and :Bulgaria: 1 k' : GDR Hungary: Poland Romania: Eastern ear s ova 1a, slavia Euro12e

1,000 metric tons

Tobacco: 1971 120 6 4 16 70 30 44 290 1972 158 4 5 17 75 38 62 259 1973 142 5 6 20 78 38 65 354 1974 145 6 5 17 65 39 59 336 1975 162 6 5 17 102 40 70 402 1976 165 5 5 19 125 64 80 463 1977 120 5 5 24 87 47 69 357 1978 128 5 5 24 62 47 60 331

Corn silage: 1971 3,753 7,134 7,750 4,246 5,665 4,467 869 33,884 1972 4,114 12,498 14,641 4,998 9,820 5,523 1,030 52,624 1973 4,627 10,474 10' 712 4,882 11,940 5,496 961 49,092 1974 3,885 12,823 11,802 4,689 14,824 5, 722 1,022 54,767 1975 3,980 14,849 9,600 5,503 17,320 4, 729 1,066 57,047 1976 4,755 12,443 6,599 5,638 19' 723 4,655 1,103 54,916 1977 4,251 16,138 14,734 5,707 24,103 4,542 1,178 70,653 1978

Hay: 1971 1,613 6,280 3,345 2,345 8,233 4,893 3/2,945 29,654 1972 1,488 6,278 4,086 2, 774 8,691 5,172 J/3,094 31,583 1973 1,824 5,854 3,884 2,796 9,295 5,428 J/3,424 32,505 1974 1,547 6,247 4,181 2,984 9,290 5,347 }/3,468 33,064 1975 1,981 6,098 3,707 3,121 8,484 6,206 _1_/3,561 33,158 1976 2,032 5,067 3,066 2,470 8,469 5,465 l_/3,508 30,077 1977 2,027 6,370 4,978 2,894 8,707 5,743 2_/3,485 34,204 1978

Feed roots: 1971 929 2,249 6,739 1,116 6,847 860 670 19,410 1972 1,047 2,608 9,362 1,281 7,967 2,230 688 25,183 1973 715 1,857 6,858 946 8,534 1,990 722 21,622 1974 661 1,975 6,303 1,045 8,016 2,899 723 21,622 1975 722 1,545 3,415 842 7' 773 2,321 722 17,340 1976 886 961 1,872 723 8,378 4,115 740 17,675 1977 600 1,090 3,670 694 8,332 3,740 811 18,937 1978

No information reported, negligible, or none. ( Estimates.

1/ 1978 data are preliminary. 2; Derived figure. 1/ Includes only lucerne, clover and vetch.

40

Table 16--January.livestock numbers, Eastern Europe, 1971-79 1./

Category . . . Total • . ' Czecho-' Yugo-and :Bulgar1a: 1 ki : GDR Hungary: Poland Romania: Eastern :s ova a: slavia EuroEe lear

1,000 head

Cattle, . total: 1971 1,279 4,288 5,190 1,912 10,220 5,216 5,138 33,243 1972 1,379 4,349 5,293 1,883 10,562 5,528 5,148 34,142 1973 1,441 4,466 5,379 1,893 11,265 5,767 5,366 35,577 1974 1,454 4,556 5,482 1,931 12,309 5,897 5,681 37,310 1975 1,554 4,566 5,585 2,018 12,815 5,983 5,872 38,393 1976 1,656 4,555 5,532 1,904 12,764 6,126 5,755 38,293 1977 1, 722 4,654 5,471 1,887 12,002 6,351 5,641 37' 728 1978 1,736 4,758 5,549 1,949 12,360 6,306 5,542 38,200 1979 1,762 4,887 5,572 1,963 12,409 6,510 5,522 38,625

Cows: 1971 589 1,881 2,163 763 5,829 2,276 2, 774 16,275 1972 607 1,900 2,173 750 5,904 2,385 2,786 16,505 1973 620 1,906 2,169 762 6,023 2,447 2,921 16,848 1974 615 1,927 2,164 786 6,268 2,498 3,056 17,314 1975 644 1,927 2,157 797 6,350 2,537 3,195 17,607 1976 670 1,903 2,155 760 6,138 2,560 3,267 17,453 1977 691 1,898 2,146 766 5,786 2,568 3,227 17,082 1978 695 1,898 2,158 781 5,878 2,580 3,184 17,175 1979 717 1,909 2,141 785 6,100 2,640 3,165 17,457

Hogs: 1971 2,369 5,530 9,684 7,311 13,863 6,359 6,562 51,678 1972 2,806 5,935 9,995 7,594 16,946 7,742 6,216 57,234 1973 2,598 6,093 10,361 6,858 19,023 8,785 6,342 60,060 1974 2,431 6,266 10,849 8,011 21,451 8,987 7,401 65,396 1975 3,422 6, 719 11,518 8,293 21,709 8,566 7,683 67,910 1976 3,889 6,683 11,501 6,953 21,647 8,813 6,536 66,022 1977 3,456 6,820 11' 291 7,854 16,766 10,193 7,326 63,706 1978 3,400 7,510 11,757 7,850 20,591 9,744 8,452 69,304 1979 3, 772 7,601 11,734 7,850 21,106 10,336 9,137 71,536

--Continued

41

Table 16--January livestock numbers, Eastern Europe, 1971-79 1./

Category . . . Total · . • Czecho-· Yugo-and :Bulgar1a: 1 k" : GDR Hungary: Poland Romania: Eastern s ova 1a: slavia Europe year

1,000 head

Sheep: 1971 9,678 981 1,598 2,316 2,661 13,818 8,703 39,755 1972 10,127 932 1,607 2,054 2,653 14,071 8,326 39 '770 1973 9,920 889 1,657 1,936 2,627 14,455 7 '774 39,258 1974 9,765 842 1,742 1,813 2,595 14,302 7,852 38,911 1975 9,791 811 1,847 2,021 2,660 13,929 8,175 39,234 1976 10,014 805 1,882 2,039 3,178 13,865 7,831 39,614 1977 9 '723 797 1,870 2,350 3,151 14,331 7,484 39,706 1978 10,145 841 1,927 2,619 3,593 14,463 7,514 41,102 1979 10,105 865 1,965 2,600 3,701 16,024 7,574 42,834

Horses: 1971 170 131 126 222 2,569 668 1,048 4,934 1972 159 118 106 211 2,469 654 1,015 4,732 1973 148 100 94 188 2,401 631 964 4,526 1974 142 84 82 172 2,387 594 945 4,406 1975 137 71 76 163 2,330 557 922 4,256 1976 133 62 70 156 2,100 562 864 3,947 1977 128 57 68 147 2,051 576 812 3,839 1978 125 53 65 144 2,010 550 759 3,706 1979 122 50 62 140 1,950 525 740 3,589

Poultry: 1971 33,706 39,187 43,034 61,300 87,561 54,333 44,954 364,075 1972 34,102 38,238 43,343 58,800 88,854 61,262 44,584 369,183 1973 34,788 39,170 43,658 50,600 92,875 64,496 49,206 374,793 1974 36,939 41,232 45,667 55,300 94,227 66,511 54,685 394,561 1975 35,089 39,476 47,530 57,500 96,583 67,672 54,991 398,841 1976 38,061 40,130 47,122 56,100 99,795 78,626 54,764 414,597 1977 39,504 44,142 48,400 58,000 79,200 91,503 59,031 419,780 1978 41,100 44' 77 4 48,400 59,000 94,600 89,019 60,398 437,291 1979 40,279 46,960 48,400 59,000 94,600 99,691 61,512 450,442

];_/ 1979 data are preliminary.

42

Table 17--Production of principal livestock products, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 11

Connnodity Czecho-' Yugo-Total

and :Bulgaria: 1 ki : GDR Hungary: Poland Romania: Eastern year : :s ova a: slavia EuroEe

1 2000 metric tons

Beef and veal 2/:

1971- 101 373 334 203 642 212 274 2,139 1972 110 377 349 187 586 219 277 2,105 1973 126 404 368 210 627 2..51 286 2,272 1974 116 431 389 187 808 250 328 2,509 1975 112 431 417 229 870 260 351 2,670 1976 127 415 417 200 920 282 356 2, 717 1977 142 414 381 190 837 309 359 2,632 1978 143 420 390 195 827 290 336 2,601

Mutton, lamb,: and goat meat 2/:

1971- 102 8 10 18 29 67 52 286 1972 101 8 11 15 30 63 50 278 1973 100 8 11 17 29 69 50 284 1974 100 7 13 16 28 70 49 283 1975 90 7 14 17 26 71 56 281 1976 101 6 16 14 25 69 61 292 1977 88 6 15 15 27 78 58 287 1978 90 7 15 18 27 74 60 291

Pork 2/: 197l 204 624 854 753 1,357 474 611 4,877 1972 243 681 927 820 1,643 591 561 5,466 1973 223 671 970 733 1,833 674 503 5,607 1974 212 703 1,041 861 1,948 749 645 6,159 1975 329 738 1,132 892 1,852 724 646 6,313 1976 370 728 1.099 788 1,594 772 608 5,970 1977 321 780 1,098 930 1,593 778 693 6,193 1978 330' 827 1,110 965 1, 720 821 776 6,549

Poultry meat ];_/:

1971 111 111 99 237 150 145 149 1,002 1972 108 119 107 243 172 190 144 1,083 1973 113 124 111 252 196 209 160 1,165 1974 131 129 124 272 223 238 181 1,298 1975 123 134 127 280 254 273 188 1,379 1976 130 141 132 308 294 303 204 1,512 1977 149 152 137 330 338 338 227 1,671 1978 150 155 137 356 382 364 243 1,787

--Continued

43

Table 17--Production of principal livestock products, Eastern Europe, annual 1971-78 !/

Commodity and

year

Czecho-' :Bulgaria: 1 ki : : :s ova a:

GDR Hungary: Poland Romania: Yugo­slavia

Total meat J:.../ ]../:

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Milk!!._/: 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Eggs: 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

522 sn5 566 562 657 732 703 716

1,291 1,308 1,344 1,410 1,436 1,458 1,548 1,590

1,747 1, 703 1,736 1,753 1,851 1,848 2,026 2,050

1,157 1,225 1,242 1,307 1,349 1,322 1,383 1,440

4,924 5,123 5,430 5,503 5,462 5,400 5,530 5,650

3,996 4,120 4,254 4,468 4,499 4,492 4,639 4,694

1/ 1978 data are preliminary.

1,326 1,423 1,490 1,598 1, 718 1,693 1,660 1,681

7,150 7,515 7,738 8,075 8,095 8,092 7,939 8,100

4,504 4,425 4,554 4,922 5,047 5,217 5,251 5,304

1,000 metric tons

1,216 1,270 1,217 1,341 1,422 1,324 1,470 1,539

1,802 1,810 1,957 2,020 1,822 1,931 2,142 2,265

2,232 2,480 2, 729 3,061 3,062 2,896 2,859 3,020

15,146 15,765 16,243 16,667 16,375 16,520 16,929 17,064

Millions

3,475 3,217 3,285 3,628 4,001 3,995 4,528 4,818

7,080 7,475 7,437 7,871 8,013 8,020 8,412 8,496

Z/ Data include edible slaughter fat and offal.

898 1,063 1,203 1,307 1,328 1,426 1,503 1,549

2,830 3,164 3,390 3,387 3,458 3,826 4,212 4,490

3,984 4,300 4,655 4,871 5,412 6,153 6,299 6,819

3! Includes horse and rabbit meat, CEMA data except for Yugoslavia.

1,102 1,052 1,067 1,283 1,329 1,309 1,338 1,415

2,580 2,813 3,105 3,487 3,654 3,846 4,072 4,234

2,937 2,964 3,201 3,674 3,590 3,825 4,041 4,170

Total Eastern Europe

8,453 9,078 9,514

10,459 10,865 10,702 10,916 11,360

35,723 37,498 39,207 40,549 40,302 41,073 42,372 43,393

27' 723 28,204 29,122 31,187 32,407 33,550 35,196 36,351

~/ Data include only cows milk for consumption in Romania and Yugoslavia for the entire series, and in Hungary since 1975. In the remaining countries data include milk sucked by calves. In the GDR, milk production is given in 3.5 per­cent fat equivalent. One liter is equal to 1.031 kilograms.

44

Table 18--Per capita consumption of selected foods, Eastern Europe l/, 1971-//

Item Bulgaria Czecho- GDR Hungary Poland Yugo-slovakia slavia

Kilograms

Total meat: 1971 43.6 73.7 68.5 59.5 56.1 37.6 1972 49.0 75.8 70.8 61.5 59.3 37.8 1973 50.0 76.7 73.5 63.7 62.1 38.5 1974 51.6 78.4 75.3 66.2 65.6 43.7 1975 58.0 81.1 77.8 68.5 70.3 48.3 1976 62.0 81.4 80.7 67.5 70.0 48.4 1977 6?..0 81.3 83.6 (67.8) ( 69 .1)

Eggs Y: 1971 127.0 284.0 246.0 258.0 193.0 145.0 1972 126.0 273.0 240.0 260.0 196.0 149.0 1973 135.0 293.0 250.0 264.0 200.0 154.0 1974 140.0 293.0 264.0 270.0 205.0 162.0 1975 146.0 297.0 269.0 274.0 209.0 166.0 1976 149.0 294.0 269.0 270.0 214.0 164.0 1977 171.0 295.0 278.0 285.0 214.0

Vegetable oil:

1971 13.0 6.0 2.2 1.9 5.8 10.6 1972 12.9 6.1 2.3 2.2 5.8 9.7 1973 13.0 6.1 2.0 2.5 6.2 10.1 1974 13.7 6.1 2.0 2.8 6.5 10.8 1975 14.1 6.7 2.0 2.9 6.5 10.6 1976 14.1 6.6 2.5 3/5.3 6.8 10.5 1977 14.5 6.7 2.0 }_!5.6 7.1

Sugar: 1971 33.0 37.5 34.4 34.5 39.6 28.5 1972 31.6 37.7 35.5 35.5 40.9 29.1 1973 33.0 38.6 37.1 37.1 42.0 29.4 1974 33.2 38.6 37.7 37.7 43.9 33.1 1975 32.5 38.0 39.5 39.5 43.2 32.8 1976 34.5 38.?. 38.4 33.0 43.9 32.8 1977 34.0 38.0 39.8 34.5 . 41.5

Continued

45

Table 18--Per capita consumption of selected foods, Eastern Europe 1./, 1971-77

Item Bulgaria Czecho- GDR Hungary Poland Yugo~

slovakia slavia

Kilograms

Grains ( in flour equi-valent):

1971 179.0 113.0 97.0 124.0 128.0 185.0 1972 173.0 111.0 96.0 122.0 127.0 186.0 1973 17().0 109.0 94.0 120.0 125.0 181.0 1974 165.0 108.0 94.0 120.0 123.0 188.0 1975 162.0 108.0 95.0 118.0 120.0 183.0 1976 164.0 108.0 95.0 115,7 122.0 181.0 1977 157.0 108.0 94.0 114,0 121.0

Vegetables: 1971 118.0 70.0 84.0 83.0 86.0 75.0 1972 116.0 74.0 93.0 83.0 84.0 76.0 1973 116.0 71.0 94.0 87.0 93.0 86.0 1974 125.0 76.0 88.0 87.0 84.0 82.0 1975 127.0 74.0 90.0 85.0 94.0 79.0 1976 114.0 70.0 84.0 84.2 87.0 88.0 1977 123.0 90.0 86.8

Potatoes: 1971 29 .o 109.0 151.0 72.0 189.0 69.0 1972 29.0 106.0 146.0 69.0 187.0 63.0 1973 27.0 106.0 145.0 67.0 183.0 71.0 1974 27.0 108.0 141.0 66.0 177.0 71.0 1975 23.0 96.0 142.0 68.0 173.0 66.0 1976 25.0 100.0 144.0 64.0 173.0 67.0 1977 24.7 92.0 140.0 66.5 168.0

No information reported, negligible, or none. = Estimate.

1/ Data not available for Romania. 2! Numbers. 3! Includes margarine.

46

Table 19--Summary of descriptive data, Eastern Europe, 1977

Land :Socialized:Population: Labor force 1) : GNP 1) Country Total Agricul- : Arable : agricul- : mid- : Total 21 : Agricul-

tural : :tural land: year : - : tural 1) Total "Per capita

1,000 hectares Percent Millions Millions Billion

Bulgaria : ll,091 6,206 4,108 99 8.8 4.70 1. 32 22.1 2,5ll :

Czechoslovakia : 12,788 6,976 5,257 94 15.0 7.53 1.12 63.2 4,213

GDR : 10,833 6,291 5,029 94 16.8 8.80 .88 73.1 4,351

Hungary : 9,303 6,729 5,423 93 10.6 5.23 1.50 29.4 2 '774 :

Poland : 31,268 19,lll 15,018 23 34.7 18.84 6.00 100.5 2,896

Romania : 23,750 14,960 10,533 91 21.5 ll.97 4.80 60.2 2,800

Yugoslavia : 25,580 14,274 7,948 30 21.7 8.59 3.22 48.6 2,240 ~ :

--....1 Total : 124,613 74,539 53,531 129.1 65.66 18.84 397.1 3,ll2 ,__. : § . 9 ?'

1/ Central Intelligence Agency data, (in 1977 $). Il Includes self-employed farmers.

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