East Asian Security and Defence Digest 19

7/31/2019 East Asian Security and Defence Digest 19

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EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST

EDITOR : TIAGO ALEXANDRE FERNANDES MAURÍCIO •R ESEARCHER AT K YOTO U NIVERSITY

R ESEARCHER AT ORIENT I NSTITUTE (TECHNICAL U NIVERSITY OF LISBON)

NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012

Sponsor

(please contact: [email protected])

INSIGHTS ABOUT NORTH K OREA'S

WORLDVIEW

“U.S.–North Korea relations recently enjoyed 16 optimistic days: between February 29, when Pyongyang signed the “Leap Day” arms control agreement with the United States, and March 16, when it announced plans to conduct the very kind of rocket launch that it had just forsworn. Reacting to the announcement of the satellite launch, which is intended to commemorate the centenary of founding father Kim Il Sung’s birth, U.S. President Barack Obama warned North Korea about the consequences of provocation and called on China to stop “turning a blind eye” to the North Korean nuclear program. The denunciations Obama and others have been making sound like a familiar refrain. “Rules must be binding, violations must be punished, words must mean something,” Obama said in his now-famous Prague speech, in which he condemned North Korea’s April 2009 rocket launch. But the rules aren’t binding, North Korea’s violations aren’t meaningfully punished, words are mostly just words, and

China does little.”

“WHY NORTH K OREA GETS AWAY

WITH IT ” (JENNIFER LIND - F OREIGN A FFAIRS ).

THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BEEF

UP ITS STANCE TOWARD NORTH

K OREA

“The United States must ensure that it maintains sufficiently robust military forces in Asia to deter and defend against the multifaceted North Korean security threat. Washington should also continue contingency planning with its allies for potential instability in North Korea. Although the missile failure by itself will not imperil Kim Jong-un’s hold on power, additional missteps could eventually lead other members of the leadership elite

to

question

whether

the

new North Korean leader is up to the task.”

“NORTH K OREAN MISSILE LAUNCH

DEMANDS STRONG U.S.

R ESPONSE ”(BRUCE K LINGNER - T HE H ERITAGE

F OUNDATION ).

SHOOTING DOWN PYONGYANG'S

R OCKET IS A PRIORITY

“If we are faced with only Bad Choices, that doesn’t mean No Choices. First, we should blow the missile out of the sky. The Kim regime knows that if it escalates, and starts a war, U.S. and South Korean troops will be in Pyongyang in three days and Kim Jong Eun won’t celebrate his six-month anniversary of taking power. It will also set the precedent,

once we realize the world won’t end, of blowing up every North Korean missile launch, interdicting every North Korean ship at sea, and when possible, forcing down every suspect North Korean airplane. And, it will do more to stabilize our alliances with Seoul and Tokyo than anything else we could do.”

“NORTH K OREAN TWO-FER ?

FROM BAD TO WORSE ”(MICHAEL AUSLIN - A MERICAN

E NTERPRISE I NSTITUTE ).

MAKING THE CASE OF A

SIMILARITY BETWEEN NORTH

K OREA AND IRAN

“Even though the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs are in separate regions of the world, they share some linkages and reciprocal influences. In Pyongyang's case, the newest incarnation of the Kim dynasty does not like losing global attention to Tehran, and appears to be returning to its customary patterns of bluster and brinksmanship in part to recapture global headlines and increase its leverage in potential future negotiations with the U.S. Domestic politics no doubt play a role as well, as Kim Jong Un seeks to consolidate his hold on power and place himself in continuity with the legacies of his father and grandfather. From Tehran's perspective, one "lesson" from

BRINGING YOU EXPERTISE ON EAST ASIAN AFFAIRS. MORE THAN JUST NEWS.

EAST ASIAN SECURITY & DEFENCE DIGEST covers expert analyses and news highlights on East Asian security and defence affairs.The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of JFPO.

JAPAN FOREIGN POLICY OBSERVATORY (JFPO)

Kyoto, Japan • Editor’s mailbox: [email protected]

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137399/jennifer-lind/why-north-korea-gets-away-with-it















http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/04/north-korean-missile-launch-demands-strong-us-response
















http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/asia/north-korean-two-fer-from-bad-to-worse/


























EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST



NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012North Korea appears to be that possession of nuclear weapons helps ensure regime survival and increase bargaining leverage, despite international opprobrium.”

“OBAMA'S CHOICES IN NORTH

K OREA ”

(WILL I NBODEN - F OREIGN P OLICY ).

TRANSPARENCY WAS AT A LOSS IN NORTH K OREA'S R OCKET LAUNCH,

DESPITE EFFORTS

“The US is in a much better position to put forth an olive branch to test the DPRK’s sincerity. Like those of the Agreed Framework, initial concessions could contingently answer the DPRK’s demands with the understanding that the US could quickly rescind all concessions should the DPRK renege on its promises to disarm. The most recent agreement represents a positive (but cautious) first step in this direction. Working with the DPRK to verify the facts behind the planned launch and to ensure it is conducted safely would demonstrate a more productive attitude toward resolving outstanding tensions. And it would certainly be more advisable than simply using the launch as a convenient pretext for thwarting this most recent thawing in US–DPRK relations.”“THE DPRK’S SATELLITE LAUNCH:

TEASING OPPORTUNITY FROM

CRISIS ” (MARK CAPPRIO - E AST ASIA F ORUM ).

DOES NORTH K OREA R EMAIN A

SERIOUS MILITARY THREAT?

“Writing today, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haas has a sobering take on the implications of the failed test, not least the fact that North Korea has demonstrated once again that it has little regard for international opinion.

He also noted that: “North Korea remains a serious military threat. It still possesses as many as a dozen nuclear warheads, proven short-range missiles, and a formidable conventional fighting force. It is as much an army with a country as vice-versa.”

“Third and perhaps most immediate, the test’s failure constitutes a humiliating setback for the country’s new leader, Kim Jong-un. It is likely that a principal reason for the launch was to signal his emergence and consolidate his authority. There is thus a real risk that he will turn to a tried and true path to accomplish the same ends.””“PIVOT AND A R OCKET LAUNCH ”

(JASON MIKS - T HE

D IPLOMAT ).

HOPES FOR A NORTH K OREAN

SPRING HAVE BEEN SHATTERED

“Whatever the opposite of the Midas touch is, North Korea's leaders seem to have it. Located in a region where all

of its neighbors have experienced remarkable economic growth, the North Korean economy has stagnated for more than two decades. For the last several years, North Korea's leadership has promised a new dawn of prosperity by April 15, 2012, the 100th birthday of the country's founding leader Kim Il Sung. Instead, the country has bounced from an avoidable famine in the mid-

1990s to a disastrous currency reform in 2009 to a costly -- and failed -- missile launch earlier this week. The country now has an annual per capita income of about $1,000, roughly the same as Pakistan. Did it have to be this way?”

“COULD NORTH K OREA HAVE

STRUCK IT R ICH? ” (STEPHAN HAGGARD - F OREIGN P OLICY ).

... AND THE R OCKET FALLS TO

PIECES

“'Richard Engel, NBC News chief foreign correspondent, reported from North Korea that: "There is not a lot of information being disseminated at this point...(but) we did hear just a short while ago after the launch took place, after it was confirmed internationally, some martial music playing in the

street,

some

fighter

jets

flying overhead. This is a national celebration time in North Korea and this rocket launch and this satellite launch, as the government describes it, is seen as a source of pride."”





http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/04/12/obamas_choices_in_north_korea_0













http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/04/11/the-dprk-s-satellite-launch-teasing-opportunity-from-crisis/
















http://the-diplomat.com/the-editor/2012/04/13/pivot-and-a-rocket-launch/











http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/13/could_north_korea_have_struck_it_rich


























EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST



NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012“NORTH K OREA LAUNCHES

R OCKET ” (T HE D IPLOMAT ).

IS THERE STILL R OOM FOR A

PEACE TREATY WITH THE NORTH?

“Pyongyang has long sought a peace treaty to replace the 1953 armistice agreement that ended active fighting in the Korean War. This has been especially true in recent

years.

At

the

same

time,

Pyongyang’s determination to protect its sovereignty from the American and Japanese “imperialists” has led it to some injudicious actions such as its rocket and nuclear tests. Viewed by many as provocations, these songun (military first) actions, although likely taken to attract Washington’s attention, have only served to inhibit progress by further undermining Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo’s trust in North Korea. Additionally, these actions precipitated several rounds of U.N. Security Council sanctions, which have further angered North Korean officials and alienated their country.”“TIME FOR NORTH K OREA PEACE

TREATY ” (A NTHONY DIFILIPPO - T HE D IPLOMAT ).

LOOKING INTO PYONGYANG'S

POWER STRUGGLE

“The tentative ‘Leap Day deal,’ from the recent US-NK high level talks, of aid for a nuclear halt, represents just such a possible opening. As predicted, the extreme centralization of NK allowed a dramatic policy U-turn once Kim Jong Il was replaced. The deal is tentative, but it is

almost certainly a direct consequence of the change at the very top. It is hard to imagine that Kim Jong Il would have agreed to this; his prestige was too tied to the nuclear program. So if Kim Jong Un is already willing to deal, only ten weeks after his father’s death, this is very promising. It hints at wider possibilities for change. A new leader with such wide policy-making authority, who is not yet heavily tied to the nuclear program, military, or other vested interests, is encouraging. Talks should be pursued, if only because confrontation is always an easy fall-back position. The threatened rocket launch might also be interpreted in this way. Vested interests in NK (probably the military), worried about any opening or change, are pushing back. Rather than reading the contradictory progression from Leap Day deal to rocket launch as typical NK back-and-forth shenanigans justifying the cancellation of the Leap Day deal, it might instead be a sign of the widely-expected post-Kim Jong Il power struggle. If so, then abandoning the Leap Day deal over the rocket launch would set back Kim Jong Un internally against the military. But it is so frustratingly hard to tell.”

“K IM JONG UN’S ASCENT (2):R OCKET LAUNCH AS A SIGN

OF A POWER STRUGGLE?”(R OBERT K ENNEDY - ASIAN

S ECURITY B LOG).

NO FOOD FOR BAD R OCKETS?

“The concern is that for all practical purposes what North

Korea calls its Unha carrier rocket is more or less identical to its Taepodong long-range ballistic missile. Pyongyang’s claims that a space rocket is not a missile are disingenuous. Even if Kim Jong-un is a greenhorn on such matters, those advising him know both the technical and political ramifications of all this perfectly well. 1998 apart, North Korea’s more recent second ‘satellite launch’ in April 2009 — the satellite failed, but the rocket flew an impressive 3,800 km — was censured by the UNSC in a presidential statement as violating an earlier UNSC resolution which forbade the DPRK to engage in ballistic missile activities.”“NORTH K OREA’S MIXED SIGNALS:

MONITORS, MORATORIUMS AND

SATELLITES ” (AIDAN FOSTER -CARTER - E AST ASIA F ORUM ).

PYONGYANG'S R OCKET LAUNCH

SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A PINCH

OF SALT

“To begin with, the long-range missile threat from North Korea is small. Pyongyang has still not perfected a long-range rocket, because its prior launches of this system failed (in 2006) or had mixed results (in 2009). Even if its upcoming launch is successful, North Korea would require at least one additional flight test to have any confidence in this system. It will therefore not acquire a huge long-range missile arsenal over the next decade. In addition, North Korea’s long-range rocket is unwieldy and uses liquid-propulsion that takes time to refuel – it’s therefore not the most





http://the-diplomat.com/the-editor/2012/04/13/north-korea-launches-rocket/










http://the-diplomat.com/2012/04/11/time-for-north-korea-peace-treaty/













http://asiansecurityblog.wordpress.com/2012/04/09/kim-jong-uns-ascent-2-rocket-launch-as-a-sign-of-a-power-struggle/






























http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/04/09/north-korea-s-mixed-signals-monitors-moratoriums-and-satellites/































EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST



NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012appropriate for quick-launch military operations. Further, because it hasn’t yet tested a compact missile-deliverable warhead, North Korea may not even have such warheads to place on its long-range rockets. And even if it develops such a warhead, it presently only has enough fissile material for less than ten nuclear devices. It would be most likely to deploy these on its short-range and medium-range missiles that can target South Korea and Japan, rather than on any long-range rocket that’s capable of reaching the United States.”

“R EINING IN PYONGYANG’S

MISSILE PLANS ” (DINSHAW MISTRY - F LASHPOINTS ).

WASHINGTON'S ENGAGEMENT WITH

PYONGYANG WILL COOL DOWN

“North Korea's apparently unsuccessful launch of an Unha-3 rocket with a "satellite" attached marks not only the 100th birthday of the country's founder Kim Il Sung, but also the end of the Obama administration's year-long effort to open up a new path for negotiations with the Hermit Kingdom.”

“NORTH K OREAN MISSILE LAUNCH

TORPEDOES OBAMA’S

ENGAGEMENT STRATEGY ”(JOSH R OGIN - F OREIGN

P OLICY ).

SECRETARY OF STATE CLINTON

HAS GREATER VISION FOR US

NAVY

“On Tuesday evening, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recounted, for the benefit of an audience of midshipmen at the United States Naval Academy, the tension of watching the Osama bin Laden raid play out in real time. She also warned North Korea against testing a ballistic missile in honor of Kim Il Sung's birthday, and sketched out some themes relating to the future of U.S. relations with China. In what may be the most important but least remarked upon part of the speech, however, Secretary Clinton signaled the Obama administration's embrace of the vision set forth in the U.S. Navy's Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower, the 2007 strategic guidance document linking maritime power to the success of the liberal international order, and may have tipped the administration's hand with regard to how the defense realignment of the next decade will play out. Clinton's speech effectively aligned U.S. East Asian strategy with the Navy's cooperative strategic concept, a move that may signal the direction of U.S. regional defense and diplomatic policy and structure the character of China's response.”

“CLINTON EMBRACES THE NAVY ”(R OBERT FARLEY - F OREIGN

P OLICY ).

TENSIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND

THE PHILIPPINES R ISE

“The Philippines and China have been locked in a four-day standoff after the Philippine Navy captured Chinese fishing vessels near Scarborough Shoal, contested waters that both parties lay claim to. Chinese surveillance vessels quickly moved into the area to counter the Philippine naval forces and tensions escalated from

there

(Read

our

Original

Coverage here)

As of this writing, some of the Chinese vessels have departed the area, the Philippines has swapped out their Navy’s flagship, the BRP Gregorio del Pilar (PF-15) with a Philippine coast guard vessel and another naval vessel. Diplomats on both sides have continually met to resolve situation, but reaching an amicable solution to the confrontation has remained difficult:”

“UPDATE: PHILIPPINE AND CHINESE

VESSELS CONTINUE

STANDOFF OVER

SCARBOROUGH SHOAL EEZ

R IGHTS ” (CRAIG SCANLAN - ASIAN S ECURITY W ATCH ).





http://the-diplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/04/09/reining-in-pyongyang%E2%80%99s-missile-plans/














http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/04/12/north_korean_missile_launch_torpedoes_obama_s_engagement_strategy


















http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/12/clinton_embraces_the_navy








http://newpacificinstitute.org/asw/?p=10992






































EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST



NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012US NAVY'S VICE-CHIEF OF STAFF

ARGUES FOR A COOPERATIVE

STRATEGY IN EAST ASIA

“In the current confrontation, the Philippine Navy flagship Gregorio del Pilar (pictured) has attempted to arrest Chinese fisherman operating in the disputed waters of the Scarborough Shoal, only to be blocked by Chinese maritime surveillance vessels. While fishing rights are at stake today -- themselves big business in the world's most populous region -- literally underneath that issue there lie oil reserves estimated to match those of Alaska and natural gas deposits possibly exceeding the Gulf of Mexico's. The Philippines have even begun to auction lots in to energy companies for exploration, much to China's ire. The waters in contention are much closer to the Philippine

home

islands

--

and

for that matter to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, all of which have staked competing claims -- than they are to the Chinese mainland, but Beijing claims the area's barely habitable islets as Chinese soil and argues on that basis that almost the entire South China Sea is legally its exclusive offshore waters. Asked Amb. Cuisia, "How can you come to a peaceful resolution when you can't even agree on a basis?"”

“DON'T PUSH CHINA: VICE-CHIEF

OF JOINT STAFF SAYS "WE

CAN ALL GET ALONG"”(SYDNEY FREEDBERG JR -

AOL D EFENSE ).

CUTTING THE US AIR FORCE'S

WINGS SHORT

“Last year Congress, under the Budget Control Act, mandated that the DoD reduce spending by $487 billion over ten years and, in January, the Pentagon unveiled how it planned to achieve the first half of these cuts, shaving $259bn from total expenditure over the next five years. As part of its efforts to meet its allotted share of the planned $259bn, the USAF is proposing to eliminate 280 aircraft from its force structure over the period from FY2013 to FY2017. This includes reducing from 60 to 54 fighter squadrons (31 active and 23 reserve squadrons). It will remove from its fleet 102 A-10 close air support aircraft, 21 F-16 Block 30 fighter aircraft, 27 C-5A Galaxy strategic airlift aircraft, 65 C-130H Hercules tactical airlifters, 38 C-27J smaller airlifters and 31 RQ-4 Block 30 Global Hawk unmanned surveillance aircraft. The USAF is also planning to cut its personnel by 9,900by the end of FY13, a near 2% reduction on its present strength of 510,900. But the Budget Control Act also noted that if legislators do not agree on $1.2 trillion of other public spending cuts, the sequestration process will be triggered during 2013, with DoD spending then falling by an additional $500bn over ten years. The absence of signs of

political compromise suggests that sequestration remains a possibility.”

“USAF CHALLENGES BEYOND THE

DEFENCE BUDGET ” ( IISS ).

THE PLACE OF TAIWAN IN US

ASIA-PACIFIC STRATEGY

“U.S. Representative Randy Forbes’s (R-Va) article in The Diplomat last month entitled “America’s Pacific Air-Sea Battle Vision” called upon Congress to support the Pentagon’s vision for Air-Sea Battle – a concept designed to improve the joint and combined ability of air and naval forces to project power in the face of anti-access and area denial challenges. More specifically, Rep. Forbes pointed out that the United States should “work to bring our allies into this effort.” Indeed, in order for the United States to effectively project power in an anti-access, area denial (A2 / AD) environment, networked alliances and ad hoc coalition partnerships would be essential in making U.S. power projection in the Asia-Pacific more resilient and responsive to both the internal and external dynamics of the emerging regional security challenges.”

“WHY U.S. MILITARY NEEDS TAIWAN ” (MARK STOKES &

R USSELL HSIA - T HE

D IPLOMAT ).





http://defense.aol.com/2012/04/12/dont-push-china-vice-chief-of-joint-staff-says-we-can-all-get/
































http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-18-2012/april/usaf-challenges-beyond-the-defence-budget/










http://the-diplomat.com/2012/04/13/why-u-s-military-needs-taiwan/


















EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST



NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012ASSESSING THE 'R OCKET' OF

NORTH K OREA

“Assume for a moment, then, that the photo -- propaganda though it may be -- bares some resemblance to a future large North Korean rocket. The depiction of the confirmed gantry at Sohae doesn't look quite the same, but let's also assume that the dimensions are close. Given our detailed knowledge of the Sohae gantry from commercial satellite imagery, and now ground photos, the rocket in the picture can be roughly scaled to obtain its dimensions: about 38 to 40 meters long and 3.5 to 4 meters in diameter. The dimensions are similar to the large rocket reported by the press, the height of the Sohae gantry, and the diameter of the hole in the mobile test pad.”

“THE R OCKET IN K IM JONG UN'S POCKET ” (NICK HANSEN -

F OREIGN P OLICY ).

WHAT DID PM CAMERON LEAVE

BEHIND IN HIS TOUR TO ASIA?

“The UK Prime Minister is on a tour of Japan and Southeast Asia, and it's interesting to read this visit in light of Nick Bryant's comments on The Interpreter that Britain is increasingly looking to Asia as a source of

economic opportunities. Judging by the Number 10 website, trade is certainly the focus of Cameron's current trip.

But the Guardian has a preview of Cameron's keynote speech in Jakarta, which he will deliver tomorrow, saying that it moves the visit from a trade mission to focus on politics'. You might think that Cameron is therefore preparing to make some grand-strategic pronouncements about the rise of Asia, but you would be wrong. In fact, his theme sounds positively Blair-ite.”

“DAVID CAMERON IN ASIA ” (SAM R OGGEVEEN - T HE LOWY

I NTERPRETER).

THE BACKGROUND OF R ECENT

CHINA-PHILIPPINES CLASHES

“According to reports, the incident began Sunday, when a Philippine Navy surveillance plane spotted several Chinese fishing vessels in a lagoon at Scarborough. The news prompted the Philippines to deploy its largest warship, the BRP Gregorio del Pilar. On Tuesday, The Guardian notes that “Filipino sailors from the warship boarded the Chinese vessels for an inspection, discovering large amounts of illegally collected corals, giant clams and live sharks inside the first boat.” Two Chinese maritime surveillance ships later reportedly positioned themselves in between the Gregorio del Pilar and the Chinese fishing vessels, preventing the arrests of the

fishermen.”

“CHINA, PHILIPPINES IN STANDOFF ”(JASON MIKS - F LASHPOINTS ).

A GLIMPSE OF SOUTH K OREA'S

ELECTIONS

“The latest Korea Realmeter polls have Park Geun-hye enjoying an eight week rise in popularity, and reestablishing herself as the presidential favorite when voters must choose between her and all the candidates. However, combined support for opposition candidates is still higher than Park’s support in those polls, and she still lags behind IT entrepreneur Ahn Chulsoo in popularity when voters need only to choose between the two. South Korea’s political environment is known for its volatility; even if the National Assembly elections provide a preliminary indicator regarding potential victors in the December presidential race, it is too early to make a safe prediction as to who will lead South Korea in 2013.”

“SOUTH K OREAN NATIONAL

ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS:

SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE

PRESIDENTIAL R ACE ” (SCOTT S NYDER - CFR ASIA

U NBOUND).

FURTHER ARGUMENTS ON NORTH

K OREA AS EAST ASIA'S IRAN

“A direct strike on North Korean launch facilities would carry with it considerable political risks, even if it might be the only effective way to send a message to North





http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/11/the_rocket_in_kim_jong_uns_pocket


















http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2012/04/12/David-Cameron-in-Asia.aspx









http://the-diplomat.com/the-editor/2012/04/11/china-philippines-in-standoff/








http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2012/04/09/south-korean-national-assembly-elections-setting-the-stage-for-the-presidential-race/





































EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST



NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012Korea that long-range missile tests of any kind are unacceptable. This is why no country has pursued this policy option despite North Korea’s three previous tests, each of which has resulted in ultimately meaningless sanctions and hortatory statements from the UN Security Council. UN resolutions have not stopped North Korea from pursuing its plans. Instead, without teeth or the collective will to comprehensively implement sanctions, the UN Security Council and its ineffective efforts probably only give Pyongyang a green light for future launches.”

“NORTH K OREA’S MISSILE

THREAT: WHICH COUNTRY

WILL BE THE ISRAEL OF

EAST ASIA?” (SCOTT S NYDER - CFR ASIA U NBOUND).

JAPAN HIGHLIGHTS

JAPAN'S ASIAN DILEMMA

“This sharp disconnect between

the

reality

of

Japanese policies and its neighbours’ suspicions regarding the liberal and internationalist nature of Japanese diplomacy has complicated security developments in East Asia. It has led policy makers in the region to fall back on an anachronistic emphasis on traditional security issues. This clearly frustrates Soeya, as a leading and effective advocate of Japan’s role as a ‘middle’ power — not a ‘great’ power — in world affairs. ‘China’s preoccupation with these traditional values stands out in particular’, he laments, ‘as its national leaders and the majority of the population appear unanimous in believing that territorial issues constitute core national interests. Equally anachronistic arguments on national defence and territorial disputes are on the rise in Japanese debates as well’.”

“JAPAN’S FOREIGN POLICY AND

AVOIDING THE UNTHINKABLE ”(PETER DRYSDALE - E AST ASIA

F ORUM ).

JAPAN AND THE EMERGING

'CONCERT OF ASIA'

“Although Japan’s identity is complex, the diplomatic

strategy of a ‘normal’ middle power is essentially internationalist; its mission is to contribute to the creation of a liberal international order. This is why Japan and Australia are natural partners in region-building efforts in the Asia Pacific, a cohesion already experienced during the creation of APEC in the 1980s. This historical cooperation should be repeated in the coming Asian Century.”

“CHINA, AND JAPAN’S FOREIGN

POLICY POSTURE ” (YOSHIHIDE SOEYA - K EIO U NIVERSITY ).

HOW CAN TOKYO DEAL WITH THE

K NOTTY 'IRANIAN QUESTION'?

“This reality has prompted even constitutionally-constrained Japan to discuss the possibility of deploying its Self-Defense Forces to the Strait in the event of conflict breaking out in the region. Last month, an advisor to Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s special advisor to the Middle East suggested to a foreign policy symposium that Tokyo should be prepared to dispatch its SDF to the region as a worst case scenario. Akihisa Nagashima, who is also the senior director of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs, noted that a conflict

in

the

Persian

Gulf

would “affect Japanese national interests.” Japan’s Constitution bars it from offensive combat roles, but there are loopholes. Nagashima explained that “some operations are authorized” under SDF legislation, pointing to the special measures law that governs SDF counterterrorism





http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2012/04/11/north-koreas-missile-threat-which-country-will-be-the-israel-of-east-asia/
































http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/04/09/japans-foreign-policy-and-avoiding-the-unthinkable/

















http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/04/08/china-and-japans-foreign-policy-posture/























EAST ASIAN SECURITY

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NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012and anti-piracy activities.”

“CAN JAPAN BREAK THE IRAN

IMPASSE? ”

(BERKSHIRE MILLER - F LASHPOINTS ).

WHY SHOULD JAPAN PREPARE FOR

R OCKET LAUNCHES FROM NORTH

K OREA

“Japanese preparations for a missile intercept of a launch or separation failure, however, are not absurd. There is real danger inherent in the rocket launch. Unless it is a copy of the North Korean designs successfully launched by the Iranians, the launch in celebration of the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birth will be a test flight. Engineers and scientists have not been allowed their own opinions as to the soundness of the rocket's design nor of the necessary minimum conditions under which the rocket can be launched. They have, of course, a strong incentive to have the rocket perform as planned as their livelihoods or indeed their lives will be at stake. However, the final decision to launch is a political, not a scientific, decision.”

“SAYING "YES" TO NORTH

K OREA ” (MICHAEL CUCEK -S HISAKU ).

JAPAN WILL STRUGGLE TO COPE

WITH UNFOLDING US-CHINA

R ELATIONS

“Vice President Xi’s recent US visit marks the start of a new power game between China and the United States–

one that looks forward to the situation in 10 years’ time. Japan’s top diplomats, however, are well behind the curve of these developments. It is true that the prime minister travelled to China and India at the end of 2011, but there has been no follow-up on those visits since. Indeed, the prime minister thus far has not yet made a single overseas trip in 2012—tied up as he has been since the start of the year in his struggle to get his proposed consumption tax legislation approved during the current regular session of the Diet. Even his much-anticipated state visit this year to the United States, the first since the Democratic Party of Japan took power, has apparently been postponed until early May. Japanese politics thus finds itself alone and adrift as a new era dawns on maritime relations in the Pacific

.”

“JAPAN PLAYS CATCH UP AS US-

CHINA R ELATIONS EVOLVE IN

THE PACIFIC ” (SUZUKI YOSHIKATSU - N IPPON .COM ).

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR JAPAN'S

SOFT POWER TO BE PRAGMATIC?

“At the time, Yamamoto was working in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ economic cooperation bureau, but he’s now Japan’s deputy representative to the Palestinian National Authority. Over a coffee in his Ramallah office, he acknowledges that progress has at times been slow.“We wanted to show our

intention to play a more major role in the region,” he says. “So we originated this concept of

creating peace and prosperity in the Middle East, focusing on regional cooperation between Palestine, Jordan and Israel. It was in our mind to expand the corridor in the future to Egypt, but it’s not easy. The peace process didn’t progress; on the contrary it has been [going] backward. We still don’t have peace in this region, but we can start with what we can do.””

“JAPAN’S MIDDLE EAST SOFT

POWER ”

(DOMINIC DUDLEY - T HE

D IPLOMAT ).

CONTRIBUTIONS TO SOLVE THE

'OKINAWA PROBLEM' MAY COME

FROM WITHIN

“If you speak to certain Japanese security experts (ie Japanese persons), particularly those that are unrepentant supporters of the US-Japan alliance, you will often hear that there are only two options for the resolution of the Futenma impasse – either the Henoko base is built, or all US Marines go home. And of course this is supposedly no choice at all – the marines can’t go home because this would seemingly undermine the integrated functionality of the US-Japan alliance as a form of deterrence. If pushed about whether the marines are really performing any practical role in





http://the-diplomat.com/2012/04/09/can-japan-break-the-iran-impasse/














http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/2012/04/saying-yes-to-north-korea.html











http://nippon.com/en/behind/l00012/
























http://the-diplomat.com/2012/04/13/japan%E2%80%99s-middle-east-soft-power/

























EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST



NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012this deterrence function given China’s military modernization, many will often reply that if nothing else the marines are ‘symbolically’ essential. Since the Seventh Fleet is not exactly chopped liver in this regard, the underlying assumption here is usually that if the US has land forces in Japan, and Okinawa in particular, the US is more likely to come to the aid of Japan if attacked and may in fact have no choice if ‘real live Americans’ are among the casualties. Needless to say this is all extremely unsatisfying and frankly a little bit deranged, and perhaps shows the superficial depth of the current US-Japan relationship at the political level. This aside, the cost for such a symbolic presence is / has been incredible in political terms, let alone financial terms, especially for past, current and potentially future Japanese governments.”

“HOW TO SOLVE ‘OKINAWA’ AND

OTHER ISSUES ” (COREY WALLACE - J APAN S ECURITY

W ATCH ).

A SUCCINCT CHRONOLOGY OF THE

R OCKET LAUNCH

“9:07 - The focus now shifts to Pyongyang: who gets blamed, who gets demoted. Will Kim Jong-un take this very public

failure

to

move

against

elements that stand in the way of the DPRK's opening up to the world, in the manner that China did in the 1980s? The faction advocating provocation, duplicity and brinkmanship has taken a hit. Will they go quietly, or will the capital be swept up in factional conflict? Having everyone in Pyongyang for the

party conference makes for a great opportunity for a lot of mutual finger pointing.”

“BOOM! ” (MICHAEL CUCEK -S HISAKU ).

WHAT CAN PM DELIVER IN HIS

VISIT TO US?

“On all the major issues that interest the United States – progress in the construction of a Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF) at Henoko on Okinawa, a clear mandate from the Diet for the Prime Minister to negotiate Japan’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership preliminary talks with no exclusions, Japan’s immediate signature on the Hague Convention on child abduction; greater commitments of Japanese military power to the security of the Asia-Pacific region and the Gulf as the U.S. makes “the pivot” in its focus from West Asia to East Asia – Noda has no capacity to make any promises.”

“WHEN PRIME MINISTER

YOSHIHIKO NODA VISITS THE

UNITED STATES ” (MICHAEL CUCEK - T HE P OINT ).

JAPAN NEWS CLIPS

“JAPAN'S MISSILE DEFENSE

SYSTEM NOT PERFECT ”

“R OCKET FAILURE AN

EMBARRASSMENT FOR

NORTH ”

“NORTH K OREA SAYS SATELLITE

'FAILED TO ENTER INTO

ORBIT' ”

“JAPAN, U.S. EYE INTERIM R EALIGNMENT R EVIEW

R EPORT BEFORE NODA'S

VISIT ”

“NORTH K OREA SUFFERS MAJOR

BLOW AS ROCKET CRASHES ”

“NEW N. K OREAN LEADER MAKES

FIRST PUBLIC SPEECH ”

“5 GRENADES LAND IN GROUNDS OF

JAPANESE EMBASSY IN

K ABUL ”

“SDF MISSILE SHIELD TEAMS RETURNING TO BASES ”

“JAPAN EMBARRASSED AGAIN OVER

N. K OREAN LAUNCH ”

“TOKYO GOV. ISHIHARA CALLS

FOR COMMERCIAL USE OF

YOKOTA AIR BASE ”

“PHILIPPINES-US WAR GAMES

BEGIN AMID CHINA TENSIONS ”

“JAPAN REMAINS ON ALERT AS

THURSDAY ROCKET LAUNCH

WINDOW CLOSES ”

“GOVERNMENT TO KEEP CLOSE EYE

ON K IM JONG UN'S

CONSOLIDATION OF POWER ”

“JAPAN, R USSIA TO PUSH

TERRITORIAL TALKS AFTER

PUTIN'S INAUGURATION ”





http://newpacificinstitute.org/jsw/?p=10123














http://shisaku.blogspot.jp/2012/04/boom.html



http://newasiapolicypoint.blogspot.jp/2012/04/when-prime-minister-yoshihiko-noda.html





















http://jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2012041000873
















http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120414a1.html














http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20120413p2g00m0in061000c.html












































http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/korean_peninsula/AJ201204130010































http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20120416p2g00m0dm081000c.html

































http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201204140045




































http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17699176
































































































































EAST ASIAN SECURITY

& DEFENCE DIGEST



NUMBER 19 • MONDAY, 16TH APRIL 2012“SOUTH K OREA RULING PARTY WINS

POLLS AMID NORTH K OREA

TENSION ”

“PM OFFICE LAUNCHES TASK FORCE

FOR N. K OREA ROCKET

LAUNCH ”

“JAPAN MAY PARTLY SHOULDER

COSTS OF TINIAN BASE ”

“JAPAN, U.K. AGREE ON ARMS

DEVELOPMENT ”

“MISSILE PLANS CAUSE DISRUPTIONS ”

“HATOYAMA ON HIS OWN AFTER

'PRIVATE' IRAN TRIP ”

“MANILA, HANOI TRY FOOTBALL

DIPLOMACY IN SPRATLYS ”

“NEW U.S. NAVY AMPHIBIOUS

ASSAULT SHIP ENTERS SASEBO

PORT ”

“CHINA FLEXES MUSCLE TO

PREVENT N. K OREA’S MISSILE

LAUNCH ”

“N. K OREA PLANS TO USE 2

LAUNCH SITES FOR SPACE

PROGRAM: OFFICIAL ”

“PAKISTAN AIRLIFTS JAPANESE

TOURISTS OUT OF GILGIT ”

“N. K OREA MAY LAUNCH IMPROVED

TAEPODONG-2 MISSILE:

MILITARY EXPERT ”

“U.K. HOPES TO INCREASE DEFENSE

EXPORTS TO JAPAN ”

“FUTENMA NOISE READINGS PROMPT

OKINAWA PREF. TO CHECK

DECIBEL LEVELS IN

CLASSROOMS ”

“GOVERNMENT SAYS IT'S READY

FOR ROCKET ”

“JAPAN FOREIGN MINISTER LEAVES

FOR WASHINGTON TO DISCUSS

N. K OREA

”“JAPAN, CHINA, SOUTH K OREA

URGE NORTH K OREA TO

CANCEL ROCKET LAUNCH ”

“GENBA LEAVES FOR U.S. TO

DISCUSS N. K OREA, IRAN,

GLOBAL ISSUES AT G-8 MEET ”

“HATOYAMA COMES UNDER FIRE

FOR IRAN VISIT, CLAIMS

AMBUSH ”

“VAUNTED MISSILE SHIELD MORE

FOR SHOW THAN PROTECTION ”“N.K OREA'S K IM JONG UN NAMED

PARTY "FIRST SECRETARY" ”

“JAPAN, U.S. PRESS UNSC OVER

LAUNCH ”

“INFO LINKS WITH ROK MILITARY

URGED ”

“1 MISSING AS MSDF HELICOPTER

CRASHES INTO SEA OFF

AOMORI ”









































http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120410005408.htm





















































http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/south_east_asia/AJ201204100099








































































































http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/world/T120409003639.htm















http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20120407p2a00m0na014000c.html









































http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2012/04/151654.html




















































































http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120410f1.html



































































































































Documents

East Asian Security and Defence Digest 19