Ease of Doing Solar · T&D Transmission & Distribution ... demonstrate the concept, EDS has been developed for four ISA member countries (referred as “study countries”) –

Ease of Doing Solar

International Solar Alliance

October 2019

Ease of Doing Solar | Page 2

Table of contents

List of Abbreviations 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Methodology 6

3. Country Reports 11

3.1 Bangladesh 12

3.2 France 15

3.3 Peru 18

3.4 Uganda 21

References 24


List of AbbreviationsAbbreviation Full Form

Ckt km Circuit Kilometer

COP Conference of the Parties

CUF Capacity Utilisation Factor

DRC Democratic Republic of Congo

EU European Union

FDI Foreign Direct Investment

FY Financial Year

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Green house gases

GHI Global Horizontal Irradiance

GoB Government of Bangladesh

GoF Government of France

GoU Government of Uganda

GW Gigawatt

GWh Gigawatt-hour

IDCOL Infrastructure Development Company Limited

km Kilometer

kWh Kilowatt-hour

MVA Million Volt Ampere

MW Megawatt

MWh Megawatt-hour

NPA Non-performing asset

PV Photovoltaic

RE Renewable Energy

sq. Square

SEIN Sistema Eléctrico Interconectado Nacional

SHS Solar Home Systems

SREDA Sustainable And Renewable Energy Development Authority (Bangladesh)

TWh Terawatt-hour

T&D Transmission & Distribution

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

USD United States Dollar

VAT Value Added Tax

Introduction


1. Introduction

The EDS report evaluates the ISA member countries on the following seven key drivers: (1) Macroeconomy (2)Policy enablers (3) Technical feasibility (4) Power market maturity (5) Infrastructure (6) Financing ecosystem, and(7) Energy Imperatives. The detailed methodology of assessment is explained in the following section. Todemonstrate the concept, EDS has been developed for four ISA member countries (referred as “study countries”) –Bangladesh, France, Peru, and Uganda, representing South Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa respectively.The sample of countries has been identified across diverse economic, demographic and market maturity levels.Once the concept is tested and finalised, ISA intends to scale up the study for all its member countries.

ISA, in collaboration with Ernst & Young LLP (EY), has conceptualised Ease of Doing Solar (“EDS”) report for itsmember countries. The Finance Committee of ISA considered the proposal and recommended the ISA Secretariat toprepare the Ease of Doing Solar report as a pilot for consideration by the second General Assembly of the ISA.EDS is a concept to capture and develop a holistic view of a country’s solar ecosystem. The objective of the report isto assess and improve a country’s preparedness to attract and sustain investments in solar energy. The EDS wouldhelp the governments of ISA member countries in identifying key roadblocks, understanding global best practices,and formulating effective policies & regulations to build a sustainable solar energy ecosystem.

To combat climate change and reduce the dependence onfossil fuels, an agreement was signed at the COP21 in Paristo unleash actions and drive investments towards lowcarbon future. At the core of this Agreement was thecommitment to increase the share of renewable energy andachieve climate goals. As the world aims to transitiontowards sustainable green technologies, solar energy isexpected to lead the way and dominate global investments innew power generation.International Solar Alliance (ISA) is conceived as a coalitionof solar resource-rich countries to address their specialenergy needs and challenges to scale up solar power. Theorganization aims to undertake joint efforts to reduce thecost of finance and the cost of technology, and mobilizemore than USD 1,000 billion of investments by 2030 in thesolar sector.

While the investments in solar energy continue to grow, theavailability of funds for the potential countries remain amajor challenge. To attract and facilitate investments insolar energy, it is imperative to have a robust regulatoryframework, infrastructure and ease of doing business normsin the country. These are few of the measures that canenhance the investments in solar sector.

As on 25 October 2019, ISA’s framework agreement has been ratified by 59 countries, and signed by further 22.

Member countries need a Robust policy & investor friendly ecosystem to attract funds

What is needed?

A framework to assess the

preparedness of member

country to attract and sustain investments to scale-up solar

Ease of Doing Solar

Background

Methodology


2. MethodologyThe report contains country-specific snapshots that access a country’s preparedness in attracting and

sustaining investments in the solar space. This report includes assessment of each of the study countries

across seven key parameters: Macroeconomy, Policy enablers, Technical feasibility, Power market maturity,

Infrastructure, Financing, and Energy Imperatives. More than 50 indicators have been used to develop the

analysis of these parameters. Each of these parameters demonstrate the countries’ readiness for large-scale

deployment of solar power.

The framework has been developed based on the review of 1). Ease of Doing Business by the World Bank; 2).

State Investment Promotion Agency Framework by Invest India; 3). Global Investment Competitiveness Report

by the World Bank; and 4). Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index by EY. The framework is depicted

below:

Ease of Doing Solar

Economic development

Country risk

Doing business

Support for renewables

Solar targets

Tariffs on imports

Resource Availability

Environmental factors

Access to electricity

Operational solar

projects

Primary Energy

Intensity

Energy Markets

Domestic module mfg.

capacity

T&D grid infrastructure

Land availability

Tender participation

Access to Finance

Cost of financing

Transactions in solar

Total energy demand

Tariffs -Solar

Open Access Charges

C&I consumers

Demand growth

Tariff gap (grid vs solar)

Solar Potential

1.Macro

economy

2.Policy

enablers

3. Technical feasibility

4. Market

maturity

5.Infrastructure

6.Financing

7.Energy

imperatives

Guiding framework and the evaluation parameters considered for the study


Policy Enablers

Effective policies and regulatory mechanism act as the key enablers for growth in any sector. This is animportant indicator for the governments to understand the roadblocks limiting the growth of solarsegment in the country. The government measures such as fiscal incentives and subsidies for solar energydeployment not only helps in attracting new investments in the sector but also minimises the risksassociated with such projects. This parameter captures the following three indicators,

Support for Renewables

Policy framework, incentives and subsidies provided by the governments are studied to assess the maturity of solar markets

A policy framework indicates the maturity of the country’s industry lifecycle. For instance, a country with strong policy framework has reached a subsidy free regime, while other countries where the market is in the nascent stage needs subsidies/incentives to promote the growth of solar.

Solar TargetsThe government’s commitment for large scale solar is analysed based on the long term targets announced

Tariff on ImportsThe government’s commitment to establish and promote domestic supply chain is analysed

Technical Feasibility

Technical indicators such as solar resource potential and environmental factors are prudent for thesuccess of solar industry. Plant load factors influence the business viability and profitability of the solarprojects and therefore attracts the investors. Technical feasibility is evaluated through two key indicators,

Resource Availability

Solar irradiation level to understand the generation potential in the country

As the ISA member countries fall in the Tropics, most of the countries are blessed with good irradiation levels. However, availability of land and supporting infrastructure are some of the constraints which impacts the solar potential. A country with good technical feasibility needs to be complemented with a strong policy and business ecosystem.

Environmental factors

Evaluates environmental factors such as dust level and their impact on the plant’s performance

Macroeconomy

Macroeconomic parameters have been evaluated to understand the economic strength, in terms of size,growth prospects and maturity. The macroeconomic driver helps the investors and the developers assessthe market and associated risks. This parameter considers three key indicators for assessment viz.,

Economic Development

Economic development is analysed through historical GDP growth rate, per capita, etc

Strong macroeconomic indicators for a country highlights lower risks for the investors and also translates to higher penetration of solar in the market (as observed from this study carried out for four countries)

Country Risk Country risk is analysed through Sovereign debt ratings, risk premiums

Doing Business Doing business is assessed through global indices measuring enforcement of contracts, protection of investors interest, etc.


Infrastructure

Adequate infrastructure is essential to enable the development of solar projects and transportation of thegenerated electricity. Domestic manufacturing of various solar components (such as PV modules andcells), helps in building investor confidence in developing large scale projects. Availability of adequatetransmission & distribution infrastructure is also essential for the success of large scale grid connectedsolar solutions. Infrastructure of a country is assessed across following five indicators

Domestic Manufacturing Capability

Measures the % of imports of solar components, such as PV modules for the projects

The countries with low to moderate infrastructure, needs well defined roadmap and planning towards development of new T&D infrastructure and business ecosystem in order to meet their solar targets.

Transmission & Distribution (T&D) grid infrastructure

Measures the T&D grid capacity (in terms of circuit kms and substation capacity), new investments proposed for infrastructure, and grid efficiency. The indicator also considers the cross border electricity trade and connectivity

Land AvailabilityAssesses the availability of barren land and the built up area in a country that is suitable for deployment of ground mounted and rooftop solar projects, respectively

Tender Participation

Analysis the bidding ecosystem, if any, and also the unique bids received in the recent years

Solar PotentialAnalysis of overall solar potential (in terms of capacity) in the country

Power Market Maturity

Market maturity is a critical driver for the investors and project developers to understand while enteringthe market. Power market is assessed through the following six key indicators,

Access to Electricity

Access to electricity is a key component that will drive off-grid installations in the developing economies. The parameter is analysed through % of population with access to electricity, household electrification rate, etc.

A mature market ensures minimum risks and high certainty of returns to the investors, but also offers high degree of competition in the market. On the other hand, a less mature markets may offer huge opportunities for the new entrants, but the risk quotient is also high.

Operational Solar Projects

Evaluates the installed solar capacity, priority dispatch mechanism and growth of the sector in the country

Primary Energy Intensity

Evaluates the dependence of the country’s economy on the energy sector

Energy Markets

Evaluates the electricity market maturity in terms of privatisation of power supply chain elements, procurement through open access and trading through power exchange

Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Consumers

Analyses the share of C&I demand in a country, as these commercial and industrial consumers are the early adopters of low cost renewable energy.

Demand growthAssesses the historical energy demand growth under the hypothesis that the major share of all future demand growth will be met by renewables


The findings under each parameter have been used to generate key insights and

understand the gaps in attracting investments for each of the study countries. These

insights are summarised in the subsequent section.

Financing

Strong financial ecosystem and innovative financial products are important factors for large scale solarproject deployment in the developing economies. While availability of appropriate financing models isessential to attract private investments, low cost of financing is also critical to make the projectscommercially viable. Financing ecosystem is assessed through the following three indicators

Access to Finance

Analysis of domestic banking ecosystem along with global indices such as availability of financial services

Financial ecosystem directly impacts the business viability and risks in a country. The countries at initial stages of solar deployment may display a weak financial ecosystem and would need a major impedance on developing the local financial institutions with strong framework and capacity building

Cost of Financing

Assessment of 10 years yield on sovereign bonds and equity risk premium to understand the country’s cost of capital

Transactions in Solar

Transaction activities in solar sector have been studied to understand the options for investors to diversify their portfolio

Energy Imperatives

Electricity consumption and tariff rates evaluate the energy landscape of a country. Four key indicatorsare analysed to understand the energy imperatives,

Existing Energy Demand

Total energy demand and consumption pattern is assessed to understand the current energy market

Energy imperatives across the developed economies may indicate competitive solar tariffs and parity with grid electricity tariffs. These economies may now provide solar as round the clock solution by integrating it with storage. However, the developing economies may relatively indicate lower to moderate energy imperatives as they are yet to leverage the economies of scale.

Solar Tariffs Average solar tariffs and its rise in the last 3 years have been studied to understand the current status of tariff rates in the country

Open Access Grid access to private players and the charges associated with the use of infrastructure (levied by the government) are analysed

Tariff Gaps (grid vs Solar)

Difference between the tariff provided by the utility and the landed cost of tariff is studied to understand whether solar has reached the parity with grid power

Country Chapters

Bangladesh


Business Environment Energy Mix Demand Drivers Renewable Energy

• One of the fastest growing economy of Asia. The real GDP growth

was 7.3% in 2018 and is expected to grow at ~7% over the next 2 years32

• Textile Industry contributes to >12% of

GDP and 85% of the

country’s exports39

• Suite of fiscal incentives viz., income repatriation and tax breaks have been

introduced to attract foreign investments in the country97

• Policy initiatives such as

net metering & solar parks are expected to drive future growth in the power sector97

• Strategically locatednear India & China (regional industrial hubs),

suitable for trade and investment flows

• Bangladesh depends heavily on fossil fuels.

Mainly gas based with

60% of the total installed capacity, followed by fuel-oil (22%) 28

• Together gas and fuel oil

contributes to 80% of the total generation mix28

• Dwindling gas reserves (almost 50% of 2007 estimates) are leading to greater reliance on costly fuel-oil imports33

• Share of natural gas is expected to be reduced to

38% by 204133

• The country imported 660 MW of the electricity from India in FY1828

• 4,783GWh electricity was imported from India in

2018 through cross border interconnection network28

• Electricity requirement growing strongly at 9-10% annually36

• Strong economic growth and

urbanization is expected

to drive per capita consumption and electricity demand

• Industrial sector consumes 34% of the electricity generated and is expected to more than

double by 202536

• 88% access to electricity has been achieved by 2017; GoB is committed

to achieve 100% electrification by 202134

• 230 MW of hydro power has been the major source of renewable energy28

• Sector is transitioning towards solar with installation of 5.8 million Solar Home System (SHS) as of October 201938

• Off-grid solar has been

a major catalyst in addressing the access to electricity challenges

• GoB has approved plans

to set up solar parks with aggregate capacity of 557 MW38

• GoB is also focusing towards deployment of

rooftop solar to address the land scarcity issues in the country

• Sluggish growth in

wind power with only 3 MW of installed capacity as of October 201938

1832

4668

98

141

20

18

20

20

E

20

25

E

20

30

E

20

35

E

20

40

E

Industrial electricity demand (TWh)36

59%22%

9%4%

1%3%

2%

Energy Mix(Installed Capacity)28

Gas

Furnace Oil

Diesel

Power Import

hydro

Coal

Solar PV

Bangladesh

Hot spot in the

South Asia’s

economic growth

55% 60% 63% 62% 62%73% 76%

88%

Access to electricity, 2017 (%)34

371 MW solar capacity38

• 73 MW grid connected

• 5.8 million Solar Home Systems (SHS)

19.3 GW installed capacity (2019) 98

14 GW peak demand (2018) 28

336kWh per capita consumption28

~120 power plants28

88% population have access to electricity (2017) 34

Generation Transmission & Distribution

11,000 ckt km transmission network28

36,600 MVA substation capacity28

30,051 km distribution network28

Renewable Energy

3 MW wind capacity38

230 MW hydro capacity38

Electricity Access

230 230 230 230

217 275 329 371

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2019

RE Installed Capacity

(MW) 38

Hydro Wind Solar


Macroeconomy

Policy enablers

Technicalfeasibility

Market MaturityInfrastructure

Financing

EnergyImperatives

Leverage

• Fiscal incentives viz., corporate tax exemption, import tariff & VAT exemptions on solar PV cells & spare parts

• Support through dedicated nodal agencies such as SREDA & IDCOL for faster implementation

Scale up• Transmission & Distribution infrastructure could

become a bottleneck and need to be scaled up

Thrust

• Ongoing support from development banks is opening up the market, but a stronger domestic financial systems is critical for large scale solar deployment in the country

Ease of doing solar has been evaluated across seven parameters

Macroeconomy

• Bangladesh’s economic growth (7.3% in 2018) story is expected to continue till FY21, owing to strong exports and trade diversion effects32

• Deteriorating banking sector indicators (viz., falling capital adequacy ratio, rising NPAs) are major areas of concern

Policy enablers

• GoB’s plan to achieve 1.7 GW by 2021 & additional 1 GW utility scale solar by 2030 is a positive signal for the sector38

• Fiscal incentives such as import duty & VAT exemptions for solar PV modules, and 15 year corporate tax exemption for solar projects are likely to attract private sector investments97

• Introduction of net metering policy is stimulating the deployment of rooftop solar projects


• Bangladesh is blessed with good solar irradiation level (GHI) of 1,665kWh/m2/year21

• Strong technical and commercial viability envisaged with normative CUF of 18%• Increasing dependence on costly fuel-oil imports makes a strong business case for solar• Bangladesh is strategically located to import cheaper solar power from India• Absence of standard technical rules and regulations for grid-connected RE generation are

limiting the participation of global technology players in the solar market


• 88% of the population had access to electricity in 201734; 100% electrification by 202136

• 371 MW of solar capacity installed, of which only 73 MW is grid connected (as of 2019)• Solar Home Systems is a major success in Bangladesh with 5.8 million SHS (aggregated

capacity of 248 MW) implemented38

• 8 grid connected solar power projects of 557 MW capacity are under implementation stage38

• Power sector is regulated and represented by Bangladesh Power Development Board that is responsible for generation, transmission and distribution in the country

• While there are some private sector investments in generation & distribution, transmission is completely owned by the government

Infrastructure

• Bangladesh is a densely populated country with 70% of land earmarked for agricultural use, limiting the land availability for utility scale solar projects

• GoB plans to build 8,000 kms transmission line and 440,000 kms distribution lines by 2021. Infrastructure needs to be scaled up significantly to keep up with generation capacity plans36

• Cross border electricity trade and associated infrastructure is under development to facilitate integration of South Asian countries’ energy systems28

Financing

• With USD 216 billion investments expected over the next 20 year, Bangladesh is slowly emerging on investor’s radar98

• Funds from major development banks are helping private players in easing initial financial risks, however planning in long term sustainability of ecosystem is required

• Long term sustainability of domestic financial ecosystem is needed to scale up solar capacity• Sovereign rating of Ba3 and deteriorating banking sector is translating into higher equity risk

premium (10.96%) and cost of debt for the investors

Energy Imperatives

• Growth in electricity demand is expected to remain strong at 9-10% on the back of robust economic growth over the next few years36

• With gas reserves depleting rapidly, Bangladesh has begun its transition towards renewable energy as an alternate source

• GoB plans to achieve RE capacity of 2,470 MW by 2021 and 3,864 MW by 204131

• Off-grid solar systems such as SHS and mini grids are expected to form major part of the “Electricity for All” and other solar initiatives

Ease of doing solar for Bangladesh

Favourable Neutral Unfavourable

France



• The country’s monetary policies and structural reforms have supported exports and investments7

• In 2018, the country’s FDI inflow increased by 25% to USD 37 billion8

• GDP growth rate slowed down to 1.7% in 2018 from 2.3% in 2017, on account of global uncertainties and social agendas6

• France is the largest agricultural power in the European Union, accounting for one-fourth of the EU’s total agricultural production

• The government has introduced supportive policy

reforms such as net metering and feed-in-tariffs to promote solar PV installations in the country

• Nuclear power dominates the country’s installed

capacity with 48% share in 20189

• Share of annual electricity

production from renewable energy sources (incl. hydro) stood at 22.7% in 2018 and is

expected to reach 40% by 203010

• Increasing renewable and

nuclear output led to 28% reduction in carbon emissions in 201811

• France trades electricity with six neighbouring countries

• In 2018, the country exported 86TWh and imported 26TWh of electricity (balance annual cross-border electricity trade of 60.2TWh)12

• Electricity demand has been stable for several years due to improvement in demand management13

• France’s per capita electricity consumption is 7,433kWh (global average -3,000kWh), and is expected to grow further

to 7,514kWh by 2021, adding to the electricity demand growth14

• The government plans to

shut down all coal-fired plants by 2022 and 14 out of 58 nuclear plants by 2035, which will drive the development of renewable energy106

• Hydro constitutes ~50% of the total RE installed capacity, followed by wind

(30%) and solar (17%)5

• France is the fourth largest solar market in Europe, with 8.9 GW of installed capacity as of June 2019110

• The government plans to

double the renewable capacity by 2023 and increase investment by

€7b-€8b per year in renewable energy during 2019 to 202817

• France has laid out a six-year solar tender program to

allocate 2.9 GW of solar capacity per year till 2024, increasing the share of solar

PV capacity by fivefold18

• Fiscal incentives and attractive tariffs have also supported the development of renewable energy

France

Strong economy

with stable long

term growth

476474

476474 475 474

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Electricity demand (TWh)13

Nuclear48%

Coal2%

Oil3%

Gas9%

Hydro19%

Wind11%

Solar6%

Bioenergy2%

Installed capacity by fuel type (2018)9

25.4 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.5

9.1 10.3 11.7 13.6 15.15.3 6.2 6.8 7.7 8.51.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

RE installed capacity (GW)9

Hydropower Wind

Solar Bioenergy

1% 1.1%1.7%

1.3% 1.4% 1.4%

3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6%

2014 2017 2020 2023

Annual GDP growth (%)19

France World

133 GW installed capacity (2018)

96.6 GW peak demand (2018)

7,433kWh per capita consumption2

~2,753 power plants

100% population have access to electricity (2017)3

Generation1 Transmission & Distribution4

105,857 ckt km transmission network


1,433,654 km distribution network

Renewable Energy5Electricity Access

51 GW renewable energy capacity (2018)

8.5 GW solar capacity

7.9 grid connected solar capacity 15.1 GW wind

capacity

25.5 GW hydro capacity


Leverage

• Policy reforms and financial incentives such as electricity tax exemption, tax credits and feed-in-tariffs

• Government’s commitment to increase share of RE in the energy mix

Scale up• With large suitable built-up area & favourable

policies in place, solar rooftop has enormous untapped potential

Thrust

• Sluggish economic growth along with low energy demand growth could affect solar development

• Solar energy integrated with storage can be explored to make a round the clock solution


Macroeconomy

• GDP growth rate at 1.7% in 2018 and is expected to grow at 1.4% in 20197, 114

• GDP at (Current prices) USD 2,780 billion in 201819

• Higher debt to GDP ratio is an area of concern

Policy enablers

• GoF has set solar capacity targets of 21 GW by 2023 and 40 GW by 202815

• Feed-in-Tariff and net metering policy introduced to promote solar rooftop projects• Competitive solar tender mechanism for solar PV has reduced the overall installation cost16

• Single window solar authorization model introduced to expedite the development process• Fiscal incentives such as electricity tax exemption for solar self consumption and 30% tax

credit for hybrid installations are expected to accelerate solar deployment20

• Increase in VAT from 7% to 10% on solar equipment will impact the development cost20


• France has a moderate to high solar irradiation level (GHI) with an average of 1,440kWh/m2/year21

• 53 GW of solar power capacity potential• Reasonable technical and commercial viability envisaged with normative CUF of 13.2%22


• Solar constitutes 6% of the total installed energy capacity and has grown at a CAGR of 13% during 2014-185

• 377 MW of solar capacity is expected to come online in 201923

• The entire electricity supply market is privatised. Power procurement is liberalised through a well established power exchange market and transparent open access regulations106

Infrastructure

• Multibillion-euro investment is planned to renovate the grid infrastructure and accommodate the expected increase in renewable capacity107

• Enormous potential for solar rooftops with nearly 23,000 km sq. of built-up area113

• Transmission network of 2,000 kms is planned to be built or expanded in the next decade108

• France has deployed smart meters for ~50% of the customers111

• Quality of France’s electricity supply is amongst the highest in Europe109

• France imports solar PV modules to fulfil its domestic demand112

Financing

• USD 7 billion investment is expected in the transmission and distribution sector by 202224

• Positive financial outlook and sovereign rating of Aa2 (investment grade), resulting in high inflow of investments in the market25

• Mature and well established financial ecosystem for financing of solar projects

Energy Imperatives

• French power sector has been stable with installed capacity growing at a CAGR of 1% during 2014-181

• Electricity consumption is expected to remain robust, reaching 490TWh by 202014

• The country depends heavily on nuclear (~70% in the generation mix) to meet its energy demand. However, plans have been announced to reduce the share of nuclear electricity generation to 50% by 203517

• Thirty-eight M&A transactions (worth USD 12.1 billion) were closed in solar sector in 201826

• Commercial and Industrial consumers constitute 60% of the total energy demand. With corporate RE PPAs garnering interest, solar will play a major role in meeting C&I demand1

• Nearly 75% of electricity from the wholesale market is used to fulfil the domestic demand, while remaining is exported to the neighbouring countries27

Ease of doing solar for France

Macroeconomy

Policy enablers



Financing

EnergyImperatives


Peru



• The country’s GDP growth has grown at 5.1% y-o-yfrom 2000 to 2017

• Service sector (esp.

Telecom & Financial Services), manufacturing and mining sectors are the largest contributors to GDP72

• Economic expansion is largely dependent on the demand of commodities, such as metals and natural gas in international markets

• Economic growth is susceptible to natural phenomena such as El Niño56

• Medium-term growth is expected to remain above

3%, sustained by strong domestic demand and a gradual increase in exports56

• High dependence on fossil fuel based electricitygeneration (grid connected),

accounting ~37% in 201871

• Thermal power stations (gas & diesel) dominates the installed power generation capacity71

• Hydropower is the 2nd largest contributor to the installed capacity71

• Nearly 8% share of renewable energy (including hydro*) in the total installed capacity71

• Solar PV contributes to 2%of the installed grid-connected capacity; Off-grid solar estimated at 48 MW71

• 21.2GWh power imported from Ecuador in 201871

• Electricity consumption has grown at 6.3% annually107

• Industrial sector (primarily

mining), growing middle class income and urbanization are expected to drive the demand for electricity

• Growing reserve margins (installed capacity in excess of maximum

demand) with 45% in 2018, suggests sufficient surplus capacity for additional demand59

• National Rural Electrification Plan 2013-2022 aims to achieve universal access to electricity by 202144

• National Energy Plan 2014-

2025 targets 60% power generation from RE by 2025 (including hydro) 44

• Four rounds of RE auctions have been held by the distribution utilities to award RE capacity44

• Peru (COP21 signatory) aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% from business-as-usual scenario by 203044

• National Photovoltaic Household Electrification Programme was launched in 2013 to install Solar PV systems in 500,000 households45

PeruTop performing

Latin American

economy

3% 2% 1%

39%34%

20%

Installed capacity in 2018, by source71

Wind Solar

Bioenergy Coal

Residual Hydropower

Natural Gas Diesel

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Growth in peak demand (GW) 71

88%

90%91%

92%93%

94% 94%

96%

Access to electricity (%)3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

Power generation capacity (forecast),

GW, by source50

Coal & Oil Gas Hydro

Wind Solar Bioenergy*Renewable hydro corresponds to less than 20 MW hydro projects

13 GW installed grid connected capacity (2018)

6.9 GW peak demand (2018)

1,500kWh per capita consumption

~137 power plants





29,031 km distribution network

Renewable Energy71Electricity Access

38 MW biomass and bagasse capacity (2018)

287 MW hydro capacity* (2018)

376 MW wind capacity (2018)

285 MW solar capacity (2018)

Includes <69kV network


Leverage

• Well-developed and liberalized power market with transparent & established open access regulations

• Strong FDIs and rich in natural resources• Accelerated depreciation benefit for RE

Scale up• Off-grid rural electrification using solar PV• Institutional capacity to deal with licensing

and environmental permits

Thrust

• Transmission infrastructure in geographically isolated areas – key to develop solar capacity, especially in Southern region which receives maximum solar irradiation.

Ease of doing solar for Peru



Macroeconomy

• Medium-term growth forecast of above 3%56

• Credit rating of A3 for long term debt in foreign currency with stable outlook is a positive indicator for the investors67

• Economy bounced back with 4% growth in 2018 after the setback from El Nino in 2017 • Recent trade tensions and rising political tensions led to weakening of economy in H1 201969

Policy enablers

• Accelerated depreciation benefit of up to 20% is being provided on machinery, equipment and civil construction for RE generation

• Mandatory dispatch is considered for all grid-connected RE generators• RE generators receive the wholesale price and a premium price if the spot price is lower than

the price offered in the respective auction• In 2006, the government of Peru offered early VAT refunds to hydropower and renewable

energy generating companies41


• The country’s technical potential for solar PV is estimated to be 260 GW55

• Peru has a high solar irradiation level (GHI) of 1,939kWh/m2/year51

• Challenging topography could be a deterrent for installation of large scale solar parks• Large RE potential can be leveraged to export electricity to the neighbouring countries


• Peru has an active power market comprising of bilateral contracts and spot market• Open access is established by law, which states that the large consumers can directly

purchase electricity from wholesale spot market• The price of solar power has fallen from USD 220/MWh in the first auction held in 2009 to

USD 48.39/MWh in the last auction in 201644

• High level of transparency in procedures, market prices, quantities, and settlements• Hydrological conditions and transmission congestion is leading to spot prices volatility

Infrastructure

• National grid is connected with the neighbour, Ecuador71; Transmission links with Chile is under proposal

• The country has established a centralized transmission planning process • Transmission sector is entirely privatized, while significant private sector participation in also

coming in distribution segment• National Integrated Electrical System (SEIN) accounts for 96% of the electricity generation• The Central and Southern regions of the country are often prone to congestion due to weak

transmission infrastructure • Transmission projects worth USD 310 million to be awarded in 2019-20, including

strengthening of Peru-Ecuador cross-border interconnection network66

Financing

• Domestic capital markets are still in development phase; Large funding is often raised in international markets68

• PPP law reformed in 2015, allowing access to local financial instruments to raise funds from private sector

• FOSE (Electric Social Compensation Fund) has been established to promote private investment for off-grid RE power in rural towns through subsidies

Energy Imperatives

• Solar contributes to mere 2% of total installed capacity, while there is technical potential for 260 GW55

• There is an opportunity to install solar PV in the geographically isolated areas by leveraging funds for rural electrification

• GHG reduction targets and high dependence on hydrological conditions have mandated the shift to non-hydro renewable capacity

Macroeconomy

Policy enablers

Technologicalfeasibility


Financing

EnergyImperatives

Uganda



• Uganda is one of the

fastest growing economy of Africa with

GDP growth rate of

6.2%73 in 2018. It is expected to continue to witness strong growth in the future

• Agriculture sector forms an integral part of the economy, accounting for

25% of the country’s GDP102

• Uganda is amongst the top

destinations for FDI88 in East Africa; Coffee and mining sectors attract the major share of FDI

• Uganda has abundant fertile land and favourable weather conditions

• Uganda has an estimated

1.4 billion barrel89 of

recoverable oil.Production from these wells is expected to begin from 2023

• Hydro power contributed

89% share in the electricity generation mix in 2018106

• In the total installed

capacity of 1,182 MW, 7.5 MW is off-grid capacity82

• Share of thermal power is expected to increase on account of new oil discoveries

• Uganda is a member of the Eastern Africa Power Pool and is well connected with neighbouring countries-Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya through regional power interconnections101

• Around 6% of power

generated is exported to Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and DRC96

• Uganda imports ~1% of the energy consumed from the neighbouring countries -Rwanda and Kenya96

• Electricity consumption in

the country is growing at

9%100 annually

• Increasing per capita consumption and access to electricity are expected to drive demand in the country

• 22% access80 to electricity has been achieved by 2017;

GoU is committed for 100% electrification by 2050

• Policy initiatives such as tax exemption, import tariff & VAT exemptions on solar home systems are expected to drive future growth in the power sector

• Access to electricity reduced to 22% in 2017 from 27% in 2016, suggesting population growth exceeded electrification rate in 201780

• 600 MW of new hydro power plants are under planning84

• Hydro is expected to remain predominant source of electricity

• Only 4 solar plants with aggregate

capacity of 50 MW were installed and operating as of 201882

• Solar contributed to

less than 1% of the electricity generation82

• Off-grid solar capacity

of 7 MW is expected to increase82

• A solar plant with 10 MW capacity is under development; Funding for the project is

provided by the EU81

Uganda

East African

growth centre

Hydro79%

Thermal and Diesel

9%

Solar8%

Cogeneration4%

Energy Mix (Installed Capacity)82

595

851947 984

1,182

2011 2014 2017 2018 2019

Total Installed Capacity (MW)106

*RE includes hydro#Electricity access reduced in 2017 owing to population growth outpacing electrification rate primarily in rural

12%15% 16%

14%

20%19%

27%

22%#

Access to Electricity (%)80

91 91.290.8

90.2

89

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Renewable energy %105 of Total Energy generated*

1182 MW installed capacity (2019)

71kWh per capita consumption

~45 power plants





45,424 km distribution network

Renewable Energy82Electricity Access80

932 MW hydro capacity (2018)

980 MW renewable energy capacity (2018)

50 MW solar capacity (2018)


Macroeconomy

Policy enablers



Financing

EnergyImperatives

Leverage

• High solar irradiation level (GHI)• Land with potential to develop up to 5 GW of

solar projects• Interconnectivity with East African countries

for export of solar power

Scale up• Development of solar home systems to address

the electricity access challenges in remote areas

Thrust

• Development of innovative financial models and capacity building for domestic institutions

• Innovative business models to improve electricity access through off-grid solutions

• Improvement in grid infrastructure to support the rising energy demand


Macroeconomy

• GDP at (current prices) USD 28 billion (in 2018) has grown at an annual growth rate of 6.2%73

• GDP growth has been moderate due to the execution delays of major public sector projects, particularly in energy and road infrastructure74

• The economic growth has improved in the recent years driven by the growth in Information and Communication services and favourable weather conditions for agricultural sector75

Policy enablers

• GoU has shown a strong commitment towards deployment of renewable energy with a roadmap to achieve 3,200 MW by 203076 and reach 100% RE by 2050

• RE feed-in-tariff policies have been introduced. For solar PV projects, 10% return on equity has been considered with a tariff ceiling of USD 0.07/kWh77

• Import duty and VAT have been exempted for solar home systems above 11Wp78


• With high solar irradiation levels (GHI) of 2,055kWh/m2/year79, Uganda has a unique opportunity to scale up its solar potential up to 5 GW

• Strong potential for solar needs to be complemented by strong business ecosystem and supportive infrastructure

• Strong technical and commercial viability envisaged with normative CUF of 18%


• Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) of Uganda has launched ‘Global Energy Transfer Feed-in-Tariff’ (GET FiT) auction program85

• Four solar projects with aggregate capacity of 50 MW have been developed by international players through competitive bidding process

• Renewable energy projects of 170 MW capacity are expected to be auctioned in 2019• Uganda is one of the few Sub-Saharan countries to have liberalised and established viable

energy markets with unbundled generation, transmission and distribution since 2001• UMEME14 a privately owned distribution company operating under a 20 year concession

agreement, is managing distribution and retail services in Uganda• ERA regulates the electricity sector in Uganda103

Infrastructure

• To improve the access to energy, the transmission infrastructure needs a significant scale up to reach un-electrified regions of the country

• With 72%92 of land earmarked for agricultural purpose, identification of suitable land for developing utility scale infrastructure may be a key challenge

• Emerging solutions like rooftop solar would need upgradation of substation capacities at distribution level

Financing

• Uganda is opening up market to enable private sector investments through competitive bidding and FiT regimes

• Lack of fully functional domestic ecosystem is a major challenge• Sovereign rating of B290, weak business environment and lack of strong financial ecosystem

have led to a higher equity premium

Energy Imperatives

• Uganda’s installed capacity is growing at 9% annually. However, lack of integrated power system may hinder this growth rate

• Tariff for existing solar plants is observed to be USD 0.11/kWh. The tariff for new projects is capped at USD 0.07/kWh77

• Per capita demand of 71kWh104, as compared to global average of 3,000kWh, is quite low. • Since over 80%93 of population resides in the rural areas, off-grid solar systems such as solar

home systems can be a viable solution• Favourable policy interventions like net metering policies and support for off-grid needs to be

employed for accelerating the growth of solar in the country

Ease of doing solar for Uganda



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