Earth’s energy balance and the greenhouse effect

Antropogenic greenhouse gases emission contribute to global warming by increasing the proportion of infrared radiations re-emitted to earth.

Reflection to space by atmosphere, clouds, and earth surface

102 W/m2

Radiation absorbed and converted into heat ...

240 W/m2

...causing emission of infrared radiation back to

the atmosphere 390 W/m2

Infrared radiation emitted to space

240 W/m2Average incident solar radiation

342 W/m2

Greenhouse gases

Part of infrared radiation is absorbed by GHG and

re-emitted causing warming

Clouds

Observed changes in global average surface temperatureDifferences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990

+0.6

+0.4

+0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

0.0

20001980196019401920190018801860

Based on Brohan et al. (2008)

Annual average air temperature10-year running mean

Evolution of sea ice surface area on the Arctic ocean

Based on Spreen et al. (2007) and data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Average sea ice in September 1979-2000 Sea ice coverage on 16 September 2007

Evolution of carbon dioxide, methane and temperature over the last 420,000 years

-5

-10

0

Tem

pera

ture

var

iatio

n (°

C)

+5

Years-400,000 2009-300,000 -200,000 -100,000

0.7

0.6

0.3

0.5

0.8

Met

hane

con

cent

ratio

n (p

arts

per

mill

ion)

0.9

0.4

2009: 1.6

Carbon dioxide Methane Temperature

300

250

150

200

350

Car

bon

diox

ide

conc

entra

tion

(par

ts p

er m

illion

) 4002009: 385

Note that the change in carbon dioxide from 290 ppm in 1900 to 385 ppm in 2009, and in methane from roughly 0.7 ppm in 1850 to about 1.6 ppm in 2009 are much much faster than any of the earlier changes, even those that appear very steep on the 400,000-year scale. On this scale, the warming since 1900 hardly appears. Note that the “present” when dates are given as “before present” or B.P. corresponds by convention to the year 1950.Source: Petit et al. (1999) - Ice core samples from the Vostok records.

Map of the world proportional to carbon dioxide emissions (1900-1999)

United States30,3%

Australia1,1%

Canada2,3%

Europe 27,7%

South and Central America

3,8%

Africa2,5%

Former Soviet Union13,7%

Middle East2,6%

China, India,Asia 12,2%

Japan3,7%

Source: World Ressource Insitute.

Greenhouse gas emissions by sectors

Agriculture 12.5%

Residential &services 10.3%

Land use & deforestation 10.0%

Other 0.6%

Waste disposal& treatment 3.4%

Industry 16.8%

Transportation 14.0%

Fossil fuel 11.3%(extraction, processing &

distribution)

Power stations 21.3%with final use:• Industry 38%• Resid. & services 36%• Transportation 26%

62.0%

3.8%

40.0%

29.6%

6.6%4.8%

0.9%

18.1%

2.3%5.9%

26.0%

Methane Nitrous oxide

Source: Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research.

29.5%

0.3%

20.6%

8.4%

9.1%

12.9%

19.2%

Carbon Dioxide72%

Methane18%

Nitrous oxide9%

Other1%

Evolution of industrial energy use

AfricaMiddle East

Industrialised countries

Developing countries Asia-PacificEconomies in transition*

Latin America

Years1970 19951980 1990

Prim

ary

ener

gy d

eman

d (E

J)

60

20

0

10

80

70

50

30

40

* Industrialized countries of the former Soviet bloc, in transition to a market economy.Source: IPCC3 - TAR - Figure 3-11.

Evolution of energy efficiency

Korea

ChinaIndia

United KingdomFrance

USA

Russian Federation

Japan

Ene

rgy

effic

ienc

y (to

n oi

l equ

ival

ent/1

000

$US

)

3.0

1.0

0

0.5

3.5

4.0

2.5

1.5

2.0

0.3

0.1

0

0.4

0.5

0.2

Years1960 1970 20001980 1990

Years1960 1970 20001980 1990

Because part of the upward infrared radiation from the surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases (and clouds) and re-emitted downward, the surface is warmed to an average temperature of +15°C and emits 390 W/m2 of infrared radiation upward to the atmosphere. Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases intensify the natural greenhouse warming by increasing the proportion of infrared radiation re-emitted to the Earth’s surface.Source: World Resources Institute - OECD/IEA.

Total lifecycle emissions of chemical industry products (2005)

Total greenhouse gas emissions of the chemical industry was 3,300 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2005. This figure does not include emissions savings enabled by products of the chemical industry.Source: ICCA Report

Disposal Carbon dioxide,methane 15.2%

Disposal High global warming

potential gases 12.1%

ProductionDirect energyemissions 18.2%

ProductionProcess emissions 21.2%

Extraction 9.1%

ProductionIndirect energyemissions 24.2%

Chemical industry applications and the net abatement (final product savings in industry emissions) they allowed in 2005

Total net greenhouse gas emissions abatment allowed by chemical industry application was 6,010 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2005 (including fertilizer and crop protection). Without agriculture, the abatment is 4,000 million tons.These figures alos includes 850 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent for which no realistic non-chemical alternative exist.* Transportation: automotive weight reduction (120 MtCO2e), improved engine efficiency (70 MtCO2e)and green tyre (40 MtCO2e).** Energy production: wind power (60 MtCO2e), solar power (40 MtCO2e) and district heating (60MtCO2e).Source: ICCA Report.

Insulation 39.9%

Fertilizer & crop protection 26.6%

Lighting 11.6%

Packaging 3.7%

Transportation* 3.8%

Marine antifouling 3.2%

Other 3.8%Piping 1.2%

Low-temp. detergents 1.3%Synthetic textile 2.2%

Energy production** 2.7%

Chemical industry of EU27 All sectors of EU27

Comparison of evolution of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions

Variations in Growth Domestic Product (EU27) or sales (chemical industry)

All sectors of EU27Chemical industry of EU27

Variations in emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent

Years1990 20061980 1990 2000

Varia

tion

com

pare

d to

199

0 (%

)

100

60

80

200

160

180

120

140

Evolution of carbon intensity for EU27 and chemical industry of EU27

Years

Varia

tion

com

pare

d to

199

0 (%

)

0

100

60

80

20

40

1990 20061980 1990 2000

Sources: European Environment Agency and Eurostat

20056,010 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent

Insulation 39.9%

Fertilizer & crop protection 26.6%

Lighting 11.6%

Transportation 3.8%

Other 12.1%Energy production 2.7%Marine antifouling 3.2%

Insulation 36.2%

Lighting 22.0%

Transportation 3.2%

Fertilizer & cropprotection 16.2%

Energy production7.8%

Biofuel 3.2%

Other 8.7%

Marine antifouling 2.6%

2030 - “Business as usual” scenario15,450 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent

2.57 fold savings enabled in 2005

Insulation 34.6%

Lighting 20.9%

Fertilizer & cropprotection 12.7%

Biofuel 5.1%

Other 5.1%Marine antifouling 2.0%Transportation 2.5%

Energy production 14.0%

Carbon capture & storage3.1%

2030 - Abatment scenario19,650 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent

3.27 fold savings enabled in 2005

Greenhouse gas emissions savings enabled by chemical industry products in 2005 compared with those estimated in 2030 for differents scenarios

Graphic size is proportional to the savings enabled.Source : ICCA Report

Some examples of abatement scenario costs

Abat

emen

t (m

illion

tons

car

bon

diox

ide

equi

vale

nt)

1000

0

6000

4000

5000

2000

-100 60-60 20 40-80 -40 -20 0

3000

Negative costs i.e. benefits

better useof waste

LEDlighting

forest &grassland

management

biomass in power plants

improved vehicles efficiency land

restoration

solar powerwind

powernuclearpower

carbon capture& storage

farmlandmanagement

€ / ton of carbon dioxide equivalent

Source: ICCA Report