Upload
doandung
View
215
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Earthquake Simulation at ESSCC and future eResearch goals
D. WeatherleyEarth Systems Science Computational Centre
Courtesy: J.B. Rundle
Outline• ESSCC earthquake simulation research• Aust. HPC earthquake simulation tools
– Escript– Esys-Particle
• iSERVO case-study scenarios– Strong ground motion prediction– Earthquake forecasting
• US/Aust. Earthquake eResearch Plans
ESSCC HPC Infrastructure Development (2002-2007)
• Software Developers employed– From “Hero code” to Geoscience Software
• Emphasis on HPC computations• Aust. Solid Earth Systems Simulator
– SGI Altix 3700 Supercomputer– 208 Intel Itanium 2 processors– 832Gb RAM– 3Tb disk storage
ESSCC HPC Infrastructure Development (2007-)
• NCRIS 5.13 Capability - AuScope• AuScope Simulation and Modelling WG• Integration with AuScope Data resources• “Gridification” via AuScope Grid WG• Emphasis on Grid delivery to users of
varying computational experience
ESSCC HPC Simulation Toolkits
• Escript– Generic FEM PDE solver – Python scripting interface– MPI and OMP parallelism
• Esys-Particle– DEM particle simulator– Python scripting interface– MPI parallel
escriptModelFrame
XML description layer
EscriptPython scripting interface
pyCADMeshing toolkit
FinleyFEM Solver
Libraries
pyVisiVisualisation
toolkit
metaQuokkaGridSphere
Portal
ESyS-Particle• Discrete Element
Method• Python scripting• MPI parallel • Features:
– 3D rotational bonds– Frictional sliding– Thermal conduction– Pore fluid
pressurisation– Deformable elastic
walls
iSERVO case-study scenario I
• Strong ground motion prediction– Model the local geological structure– Simulate earthquake rupture– Synthesize ground motions– Predict ground-shaking in scenario
earthquakes
Strong Ground Motion Prediction
Geoscience Data
Basin Model
504,471 nodes464,620 elements
FEMmesh
Escript wavePropagationsimulations
Seismic Data
Inversion
Seismic Hazard Map
iSERVO case-study scenario II• Earthquake Forecasting
– Model the fault system topology and material properties
– Simulate earthquake cycles• Strain accumulation via InSAR/GPS deformation
measurements• Rupture, stress transfer, wave propagation• Post-seismic relaxation, aftershocks, triggering
– Ensemble forecasting future seismicity
Earthquake Forecasting90%
Fault Database
Fault SystemSimulations
Fault ModelReal-timeObservations
“Reliable”Forecasts
Courtesy: J.B. Rundle
Courtesy: NASA/JPL
US/Aust. Earthquake eResearchPlans
• Easy Wins:– Establish regular meetings via Skype/IM– Port SE Qld faults to QuakeTables– Install Virtual California at ESSCC– Port escript/esys-particle to QuakeSIM
US/Aust. Earthquake eResearchPlans
• Challenges– common framework for fault system
simulations– Benchmarking and validation– InSAR data-sharing across Pacific– AuScope+iGEON– GeoSciML – codification of geoscience
AcknowledgmentsP. MoraL. MoresiH. MuhlhausT. PhamD. Place Y. Wang
S. Abe M. Davies L. GrossA. HaleL. KettleS. Latham
APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES)
Goal:To make advancements in understanding the physics of earthquakes via numerical simulations, to address the grand challenge of earthquake prediction.
• APEC endorsed science initiative
• 6 member economies (Aust., Canada, China, Japan, Taiwan, USA)
• 50 “ring-of-fire” institutions
APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES)
Modis Operandi:– Targeted Working Groups– International Workshops– Working Group meetings– ACES Visitors Programme– 4 PAGEOPH Special Issues
Transformed Earthquake Research from competition to collaboration, resulting in significant advances in earthquake simulation capabilities.
International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (iSERVO)
• The successor of ACES• eResearch infrastructure for earthquake
simulation research– Data repositories (seismic, GPS, InSAR,
geological, geophysical)– HPC Facilities (ESSCC, Earth Simulator,
NASA)– Simulation Toolkits and Portals (QuakeSIM)– Grid/WS middleware to “glue-it-together”
Data Types and Sources• Geological
– Structure/petrology• Geophysical
– Gravity/Magnetic• Space-borne
– InSAR/GPS/SRTM/DTM• Seismics
– imaging/seismograms/catalogs/moment tensors/slip distributions
• USGS• Geoscience Australia• Aust. State Surveys• NASA/JPL• IRIS• AuScope• Universities• JMA• CEA• …
Simulation types and tools• Fault zone evolution• Long-term
deformation• Mantle convection• Wave propagation• Regional seismicity• Static/dynamic stress
transfer• …
• DEM• FD/FEM• Boundary Elements• Cellular Automata• Hybrid methods• Generic/specific
simulation models• Inversion techniques• Signal analysis
Can we fix it?• Lack of agreed
standards• Software portability
issues• Difficult to port a
workflow to a different region/facility/data source
• HPC accessibility• User-unfriendliness
• GeoSciML• HPC facilities =
hardware + software• Sematic Grid • NCRIS PfC• User portals (GEON)
Yes, we can!
Concluding Remarks
• iSERVO provides a focal point for next generation earthquake research
• Multiple national projects can be leveraged/linked (QuakeSIM, AuScope, GEON, TerraGrid, …)
• eResearch infrastructure has the potential to revolutionize earthquake research and render earthquake forecasting a routine exercise