Earthquake Induced Tsunami Propagation in Arabian …serialsjournals.com/serialjournalmanager/pdf/1328766334.pdf · Earthquake Induced Tsunami Propagation in Arabian Sea ... (MATLAB)

IJACE International Journal of Advanced Computer Engineering • July-December 2011 • Volume 4 • Issue 2

Earthquake Induced Tsunami Propagation in Arabian Sea & its Effect on Okha 45

* Corresponding author: [email protected]

Earthquake Induced Tsunami Propagation in Arabian Sea &Its Effect on Okha

Vikram M. Patel1*, H. S. Patel2, A. P. Singh3

1*PhD Student, Ganpat University, Ganpat Vidyanagar, Mehsana-384002, Gujarat, India2Department of Applied Mechanics, L. D. College of Engineering, Ahmedabad, Gujarat3Sr. Geophysicist, Institute of Seismological Research, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India

ABSTRACTDestructive Tsunamis have been generated from large earthquakes along the Makran Coast, Chagos Ridge andKutchh Region in the past. Although the historical record is incomplete, it is believed that such Tsunamis weredestructive on the coasts of India, Pakistan, Iran, Oman and Sri Lanka and possibly had significant effects on Islands.The most significant tsunamigenic earthquake in recent times was that of 28 November 1945. The tsunami wasresponsible for great loss of life and destruction along the coasts of India, Pakistan, Iran and Oman. In this paper anattempt is made for a numerical simulation of the tsunami generation from the source, its propagation into theArabian Sea and its effect on Okha through the use of a numerical model under MIRONE for about 4 hours duration.It is observed from the results that the simulated arrival time of tsunami waves at the Okha is in good agreementwith the available data sources.Key words: Tsunami, Arabian Sea, Makran Coast, Kutchh Region, Run Up Height.

1. INTRODUCTIONTsunamis are water waves generated by thedisturbance caused by submarine earthquakes.Landslides, explosive volcanism and meteoriteimpact with the ocean. Among these, submarineearthquakes are the major cause for tsunamigeneration. Compared to Pacific Ocean where 117tsunamis caused casualties and damage during 1900to 2001, there are very few tsunami reported in theIndian Ocean during the last 200 years, viz., (1) 1883due to Krakatau volcanic explosion (2) December 31,1881 due to Mw7.9 earthquake in the Nicobar Islands,(3) June 26, 1941 due to Mw 8.1 earthquake in theAndaman Islands, (4) November 28, 1945 due to Mw8.3 earthquake in the Makran Coast. Arabian Sea and(5) December 26, 2004 due to Mw 9.3 earthquake offthe coast of Sumatra.

The great Sumatra–Andaman tsunami of 2004 hasawakened the attention of the scientific communityto tsunamis hazard in the Indian Ocean Basin. TheIndian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004 was thedeadliest ocean related disaster in living memory,claiming about 3,00,000 human lives. The event wasassociated with the world’s second largest earthquakeof Mw 9.3 which occurred off the coast of Sumatra in

Sunda Trench. The tsunami from Sumatra propagatedthroughout the oceans on the earth with devastatingeffects on the Indian Ocean rim countries likeIndonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar,Bangladesh, India, Sri lanka, Maldives and Africa.Another great earthquake of Mw 8.7 occurred onMarch 28, 2005 about 150km further southeast of theDecember 2004 event, with its hypocenter below NiasIsland in the Sunda trench. This earthquake set offalarms leading to tsunami warnings along the Indianeast coast and also in parts of Indonesia and Thailand.

In last few years on western coast of Indiaparticularly in Okha, good numbers of big projectshave been established. With the results population inthis region is going on increase. Therefore, the accuratemodeling of tsunami hazard from the earthquake andearly warning system of tsunamis for a coastalcommunity is of great importance.

With reference to eastern coast & southern coast,western coast of India is having very less numbers oftsunami recorded in the past. Because of it, very lesswork has been done on tsunamigenic sources andpossible tsunami hazard from earthquakes in theArabian Sea and Western coast of India particularlyOkha. At the same time because of it, in this regionGovernment and people are not so active forprotective measures.

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46 Vikram M. Patel, H. S. Patel & A. P. Singh

On of the most deadly tsunamis ever recorded inthe Arabian Sea occurred with its epicenter locatedin the offshore of Pansi in the northern Arabian Sea,about 100 km south of Churi (Baluchistan), Pakistan ,occurred at 21.56 UTC (03.26 IST) on November 28,1945. the first shock was recorded at the CaliforniaInstitute of Technology, Pasadena at 5.15 p.m. easterntime. This was followed by two aftershocks 3 and 5min after. More than 4000 people lost their life alongthe Makran coast of Pakistan by both the earthquakeand tsunami. Also, the tsunami was responsible forloss of life and great destruction along the coasts Iran,Oman and Western India (and possibly elsewhere).The earthquake’s Richter Magnitude (Ms) was 7.8. theMoment Magnitude (Mw) was revaluated to be 8.0.

Other than this Eastern Makran region, WesternMakran and Central Makran region is also a possibletsunamigenic earthquake source (locked conditionsince so long time). The possible source zones areKarachi-Kutch coast region and Chagos Ridge regionsalso. But in comparision with Makran subductionzone, these regions are less seismic.

Although large earthquakes along the MakranSubduction Zone are infrequent, the potential for the

generation of destructive tsunamis in the NorthernArabian Sea cannot be ruled out. It is quite possiblethat historical tsunamis in this region have not beenproperly reported or documented. Such past tsunamismust have affected Southern Pakistan, India, Iran,Oman, and possibly other areas as well. Thesesimotectonics of the Makran Subduction Zone,historical earthquakes in the region, and the recentearthquake of October 8, 2005 are indicative of theactive tectonic collision process that is taking placealong the entire southern and southeastern boundaryof the Eurasian plate as it collides with the Indian plateand adjacent microplates. Tectonic stress transferenceto other, stress loaded tectonic regions could triggertsunamigenic earthquakes in the Northern ArabianSea in the future.

While earthquakes cannot be predicted inadvance, once the signature of an earthquake isdetected, it is possible to give about a few minutes toa few hours of notice of a potential tsunami to thecoastal stations depending upon the location and howclose or far it is from the earthquake epicenter. Thetimely and reasonably accurate early warning of thetsunami can save lives and also possibly mitigate thedamage to properties. In view of this, an attempt ismade here to simulate the tsunami waves generateddue to earthquakes along the Makran SubductionZone of the Arabian Sea that can affect the westerncoast of India particularly Okha.

2. OVERALL TECTONIC SETTING OF MAKRANSUBDUCTION ZONE

In order to fully understand the nature of theearthquakes that may generate tsunamis, the plateboundaries and their movement must also beunderstood. Tectonic activity due to plate movementis the principal cause of earthquakes, 80% of whichoccur along the plate boundaries in the oceanic crust.The 1,200 km long Makran Subduction Zone of Iranand Pakistan (boundary between Iran and Pakistanruns roughly N–S at about 62°E in the coastal region)is seismically not as active as the Himalaya or SundaArc, but has produced great earthquakes andtsunamis in the past.

The Arabian plate is converging northward intoMakran Subduction Zone with an average speed of 4cm/year. Oman oceanic lithosphere slips below theIranian micro-plate. Thrust faults are oriented nearlyperpendicular to the direction of convergence. Amajor fault in this region has produced severaltsunamigenic earthquakes. Further south, the westernside of the Indian tectonic plate is bounded by the

Figure 2: Great Earthquakes in M. S. Z.

Figure 1: Makran Subduction Zone



Central Indian and Carlsberg mid-ocean ridges. Thisis a region of shallow seismicity.

Five of the great earthquakes in Makran may haveruptured the plate boundary in four different rupturesegments of lengths of about 200 km each in 1483 (58–60°E), 1851 and also 1864 (61–63°E), 1945 (63–65°E),and 1765 (65–67°E) (Byrne et al. 1992) (Fig. 1 & 2). Outof all these earthquakes only the 1945 earthquake isknown to have caused a large tsunami. It struck thecoast of eastern Makran near Pasni, followed by alarge aftershock in 1947 immediately to the south. Thewestern Makran zone has no clear record of historicgreat earthquakes. An earth-quake in 1483 affectedthe Strait of Hormuz and northeast Oman and maytherefore have occurred somewhere in westernMakran. Most earthquakes in this region occur withinthe down-going plate at intermediate depth. Absenceof frequent earthquakes indicates either that seismicsubduction occurs or that the plate boundary iscurrently locked and experiences great earthquakeswith long repeat periods. Evidence is presentlyinconclusive without Global Positioning System (GPS)measurements and knowledge of velocity structure.However, presence of well-defined late Holoceneterraces along portions of the coasts of eastern andwestern Makran could be interpreted as evidence thatboth sections of the arc are capable of generating largeplate boundary earthquakes.

3. METHODOLOGYIn this general context, we identify three subductionzones, whose historical seismicity suggests that theybear the potential for mega-thrust events capable ofgenerating tsunamis damaging in the far field ofwestern Indian coast particularly Okha. We wish tostress that the case studies described herein are bydefinition worst-case scenarios; in particular, they donot necessarily represent the next large earthquakein each of the relevant subduction zones.Nevertheless, we see our simulations as providingsome measures of the worst possible effect ofteleseismic tsunamis near distant shores. Simulationswere performed using the MIRONE (MATLAB) codefor propagation of tsunami waves from EasternMakran, Central Makran & Western Makran regionof the Arabian Sea. The bathymetric grid was builtfrom GEBCO 30 second database and updated withthe help of latest hydrograph charts. The basic GEBCOgrid is in the form of World Geographic Systemformat, it has been converted in the form of Cartesiansystem in meter form by latitude-longitudeconversion constants. Once earthquake sourceparameters are selected, the static deformation

resulting from the earthquake is computed. The twoavailable deformation options are called Okada andMansinha (Okada, 1985). The Mansinha optioncomputes only the vertical component of thedeformation produced by an earthquake and itsvertical component is then used as an initial conditionof the amplitude of the wave field. Mirone has twocodes to perform tsunami modeling of propagationand inundation. The SWAN code (Madder, 2004,Mader Consulting Co) and the TUNAMI-N2 code(Imamura, 1997).

The computation proceeds with a time step dt =2.5 sec for 1500m spacing grid and dt = 2.25 for 1000mspacing grid. A map of the deformation of the oceansurface is saved every 50th cycle means after every125 sec for 1500m spacing grid and after 112.50 secfor 1000m spacing grid. The simulation is carried outfor 4000 cycles in both the grids. It means totalduration of simulation for 1000m is 9000 sec and for1500m is 10000 sec. But the simulations do not includethe effect of shoaling in the shoreline areas and run-up on the beaches with higher accuracy. For moreexact picture of run-up and shoreline wave effectswith the help of output of these results, one shouldhave to go for more confined analysis.

Fig. 3 to Fig. 8 shows the maximum amplitudesimulated across the Indian Ocean Basin. In order tovalidate quantitatively the simulation, we compareit to the only available measurements of the 1945Makran tsunami. We compared our results with theavailable reports of 1945 Makran Tsunami and alsowith results of “Simulation of the Arabian SeaTsunami propagation generated due to 1945 MakranEarthquake and its effect on western parts of Gujarat(India) by Jaiswal et al., 2008.

Figure 3: Initial Vertical Jump



representative of unavoidable uncertainties whichaccompany the investigation of scenarios of futureearthquakes.

4. RESULT & ANALYSISTable 1 show the time of arrival of maximumamplitude of water waves and its height at someknown places on western coast of India and alsoKarachi. Which gives clear idea about how the ispropagating in Arabian Sea and what are the effectsof shoreline bathymetry and topography on it. Themodel also gives data about how far waves enter inthe landside, but for exact inundation condition arigorous analysis with actual buildings and otherobstruction condition is required with help of thismodel output on shoreline.

5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONSWe have investigated the far-field amplitude oftsunamis in the Indian Ocean for a number ofscenarios of mega-thrust earthquakes, ranging fromprobable to possible. The most important lesson fromthe scenarios investigated in this study is that thepatterns of far-field maximum amplitudes predictedby our simulations are matching with those observedin 1945 Makran Earthquake.

Figure 4 : Intermediate Wave Propagation

Figure 5 : Wave Propagation Near Shore

Figure 6: Photo of Initial Vertical Jump

We conclude that our simulation providesan acceptable order of magnitude of the maximumsea surface elevation, which remains poorlydocumented in the instrumental record. Thereare several parameters in our source model whichaffect the results. Such variations are taken as

Figure 7 : Photo of Intermediate Wave Propagation

Figure 8 : Photo of Wave Propagation Near Shore



Table 1Wave Height and Time of Arrival for Different Models of Earthquakes in Western Makran

Length Width Dip Depth Strike Slip Inclined Water Depth Time Wave(Km) (Km) to Top Distance at Epi Ht.125 100 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12838 0.563150 100 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12756 0.697175 100 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12675 0.895200 75 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12594 0.939200 100 15 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12756 0.689200 100 25 0 250 20 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12838 0.822200 100 30 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12675 0.922200 100 35 0 240 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 145.99 12513 0.995200 100 35 0 250 15 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12838 0.558200 100 35 0 250 20 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12756 0.818200 100 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12675 1.015200 100 35 0 250 30 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12594 1.188200 100 35 0 260 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 165.99 12756 0.9200 100 35 0 270 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 175.99 13000 0.783200 100 35 5 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12513 1.189200 100 35 10 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12513 1.341200 100 35 15 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 14056 1.437200 100 35 -10 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 11944 2.127200 125 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12675 1.072200 150 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12675 1.108225 100 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12594 1.12250 100 35 0 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12594 1.244200 100 35 -5 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 12350 1.491200 100 35 -10 240 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 145.99 11863 2.103200 100 35 -15 250 25 257131 4.01 -73.78 155.99 11781 2.496

Table 2Wave Height and Time of Arrival for Different Models of Earthquakes in Central Makran

Length Width Dip Depth Strike Slip Inclined Water Depth Time Wave(Km) (Km) to Top Distance at EPI Ht.100 100 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12513 0.45125 100 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12431 0.595150 100 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12350 0.721175 100 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12269 0.846200 75 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12106 0.878200 100 20 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12188 0.514200 100 25 0 250 20 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12188 0.681200 100 30 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12188 0.797200 100 35 0 240 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 138.04 11863 0.894200 100 35 0 250 15 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12350 0.484200 100 35 0 250 20 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12188 0.746200 100 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12106 0.949200 100 35 0 250 30 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 11944 1.302200 100 35 0 260 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 158.04 12269 1.242200 100 35 0 270 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 168.04 12269 0.955200 100 35 5 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 11863 1.179200 100 35 10 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 11781 1.343200 100 35 15 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 11781 1.439200 100 35 -10 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 11131 2.689200 125 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12106 0.998200 150 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12106 1.04225 100 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 12025 1.088250 100 35 0 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 11944 1.231200 100 35 -5 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 11538 1.913200 100 35 -10 240 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 138.04 11131 2.452200 100 35 -15 250 25 130327 11.96 -26.82 148.04 10969 3.222

WES

TER

N M

AK

RAN

CEN

TRA

L M

AK

RAN



Table 3Wave Height and Time of Arrival for Different Models of Earthquakes in Eastern Makran

Length Width Dip Depth Strike Slip Inclined Water Depth Time Wave(Km) (Km) to Top Distance at EPI Ht.125 100 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 12675 0.471150 100 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 12513 0.579175 100 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 12513 0.579200 75 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11619 0.628200 100 25 0 250 20 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11700 0.423200 100 30 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11619 0.571200 100 35 0 240 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 63.81 10563 1.85200 100 35 0 250 20 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 10700 0.607200 100 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11619 0.809200 100 35 0 250 30 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11619 0.965200 100 35 0 260 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 83.81 11781 1.07200 100 35 0 270 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 93.81 11944 1.191200 100 35 5 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11575 1.004200 100 35 10 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11294 1.219200 100 35 15 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11213 1.351200 100 35 -5 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 10969 1.385200 125 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11538 0.821200 150 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11538 0.829225 100 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11456 1.009250 100 35 0 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 11456 1.254200 100 35 -10 240 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 63.81 10644 1.985200 100 35 -10 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 10806 1.916200 100 35 -15 250 25 22550 86.19 -26.81 73.81 10563 2.213

EAST

ERN

MA

KRA

N

The model results are qualitatively consistent withthe reported damage. Our model gives maximumamplitude along the creeks at the coast of Gujarat. Sothe most vulnerable areas of the coast need to beprovided greater protection when planning forpreparedness. There is 120 to 150 minutes arrival timefor more accurate and reliable warning for Okha.

Because there is only 120 to 150 minutes timebefore tsunami arrival at the Okha, it is very importantto actually confirm the tsunami generation. For thispurpose, sea level monitoring systems, located onwestern coasts and offshore of India, are necessary.Also application of Artificial Neural Network mayhelp us to predict more accurate time of arrival oftsunami and probable height of tsunami waves. Forthis purpose we should have to train our neuralnetwork programme with different kind of databaseof probable to possible earthquakes parameters. Atthe time of earthquakes for faster tsunami warningsystem, we may use P-wave moment magnitude(Mwp) from P waves of 10-60 sec period range.

From our study we may conclude that the westcoast of Gujarat is most vulnerable coast in the wholewestern coast of India. Particularly in coast of Gujarat,Okha is also one of the most important ports. Okha, avaluable olden port of Gujarat and India also is havingmore Sevier hazard against tsunami from Arabian Sea.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe authors are grateful to Dr. B. K. Rastogi (D.G., ISR,G‘Nagar) for the permission of use of ISR library & otherresource materials. We also thank scientists and librarian ofISR, G’Nagar for their kind support for our research work.

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Earthquake Induced Tsunami Propagation in Arabian …serialsjournals.com/serialjournalmanager/pdf/1328766334.pdf · Earthquake Induced Tsunami Propagation in Arabian Sea ... (MATLAB)