Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap DRAFT, 4/18/2005 AM1Strategic Roadmap Committee #9 Interim Status Report Earth Science & Applications

DRAFT, 4/18/2005 AM 1Strategic Roadmap Committee #9 Interim Status Report

Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap

Earth Science & Applications from SpaceExploring our Planet for the Benefit of Society

Strategic Roadmap Committee #9

Interim Status Report

April 21, 2005





Presidential Initiatives and Directives

• Climate Change Research (June 2001)– Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)– Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)

• Global Earth Observation (July 2003)– U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS) Strategic Plan

• Provides a coherent overarching strategy to connect previously disjointed efforts• Provides compelling rationale for societal, scientific, and economic imperatives• Recommends and five specific near-term opportunities for investment

– U.S. participation in the International Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)

• Vision for Space Exploration (January 2004)

• Collaborative Oceans Research (December 2004)

• Earth Science and Applications form Space is the only NASA Strategic Roadmap that addresses NASA’s all of these Presidential commitments



National Goals for Space Exploration

• Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond.

• Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations.

• Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration.

• Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests.

• Study the Earth system from space and develop new space-based and related capabilities for this purpose.*

ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTERESTS THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE EXPLORATION PROGRAM

* Added in “The New Age of Exploration” to address other Presidential initiatives and directives not covered in the Vision for Space Exploration



Study the Earth system from space and develop new space-based and related capabilities for this purpose.

Advance scientific knowledge of the Earth system through space-based observation, assimilation of new observations, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities, including those with the potential to improve future operational systems.

Demonstrating scientific utility & technological feasibility of satellite remote sensing

Earth System Science concept: EOS & Interdisciplinary research

Expanding our view of Earth and reach into society

Creating a “nervous system” for Planet Earth

Comprehensive observing and modeling of the Earth system

1960s-1980s 1980s-2000s 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025 & Beyond



Conceptual Roadmap

Expand our view of Earth and reach into society

Create a “nervous system” for Planet Earth

Comprehensively observe and model the Earth system

2005-2015 2015-2025 2025 & Beyond

Answer key science questions

Couple Earth system models

Add key missing pieces of observing capability (in IEOS/ GEOSS context)

Secure research-to- operations transitions

Link data sets & models to decision support systems

Extend the 4-D view of the Earth via higher orbits & active sensing

Connect constellations of satellites in a sensorweb

Employ sensorweb observations in a ‘modelweb’ of the Earth system

Enable advanced data mining, data fusion, & visualization of NASA data by others

Operational, interconnected space and Earth-based monitoring system with mature, reliable cyber-infrastructure

National/international scale, operated by other public & private sector organizations, and evolved with NASA research & technology

Expanded to other planets by NASA



Roadmap Achievements

The strategic roadmap compelling questions, objectives, anticipated achievements, and decisions

points, in decadal phases



Unique Aspects of Earth Science & Applications

• Only Strategic Roadmap that directly responds to multiple Presidential Initiatives and Policy Directives– Fascinating science with highly beneficial results

• Benefits accrue in two ways– From a set of investigation systems

• Traceable to Strategic Roadmap Scientific Objectives– That trace to compelling science questions

– From integration of investigation systems into National (and International) systems of systems

• Traceable to Strategic Roadmap Integration Objectives – Capability emerges through the integrated results of multiple

investigations



Framework for Strategic Plan

• Discover, Understand, Inform - The vantage point of space provides a unique opportunity to understand the underlying scientific and engineering principles behind Earth as a system, to answer sustainability and quality of life questions on Earth and elsewhere in Solar System and the Universe

• Understanding Earth as a system requires knowledge of the the processes that control the Earth environment, how they are changing, and what those changes mean in the long term

– Exploration and Discovery: Enabling new investigations and insight by exploring unknown aspects of the Earth system

– Continuous Awareness: Enhancing process understanding and the capacity to observe and model key dynamic phenomena

– Maintaining Perspectives: Developing capabilities to make critical observational records across multiple timescales

Exploration Awareness Perspective



Compelling Questions

Why Does the Earth Support Abundant Life?

• How does Earth's abundant life influence and respond to changing planetary processes?

• What controls the availability of water on the planet?• How does the atmosphere protect and sustain us?• How are our weather and climate evolving? • How stable is the solid Earth?• What role do we as humans play in driving changes in the Earth

system?



Scientific Objective(s)

• Explore and develop a predictive understanding of the Earth as a system of interacting natural and human systems, including…– Life: biogeochemical cycles and the distribution and

processes of life within Earth’s ecosystems– Water: the storage, distribution, and transport of water in all

its forms – Climate/ Weather: the Earth's weather and climate, and its

future condition– Atmospheric Composition: the sources, sinks, and

transformations of aerosols and atmospheric chemical species

– Solid Earth: the variability of the Solid Earth



Accomplishment/ Timeline Development Process

• Measurements concepts identified– Based on Earth-Sun System: Potential Roadmap and Mission Development Activities

Document (Dec. 23, 2004) – Additional concepts identified through the subcommittees

• Notional implementation approaches identified and missions categorized into four cost-based classes

– Small (under $200M), medium ($200-400M), large ($400-600M), and flagship (over $600M)

• Subcommittees prioritized measurement concepts – Identified expected accomplishments

• Staff team organized and time-ordered measurement concepts on sample timeline based on

– Scientific prioritization from subcommittees– Assessment of technology and measurement maturity– “Cluster” concept – group complementary investigations for synergistic science– Order (sequence) of clusters is based on estimation of maturity in each science area– Uniform level of investment

• Staff team summarized decadal accomplishments based on timeline• Further work is needed; timeline is representative first cut

– Need broader science community input on measurement and investment priorities, such as through the ongoing NRC Decadal Survey

– Need to assess and vet the assumed available level of investment -- ensuring adequate investments in modeling, information systems, etc.

– Need to conduct mission studies to refine technology readiness, cost, and cost phasing estimates, and eliminate redundancies



Prioritization Criteria: Scientific Measurement

• Advances Science– Significance of the potential to make a major scientific breakthrough– Supports NASA’s overall mission

• Supports Decision-makers– Fulfilling NASA’s responsibilities of CCSP and IEOS– Addressing national applications– Potential to reduce uncertainty in predictions

• Benefits society– Social importance of the science question addressed– Potential to reduce uncertainty in predictions– Extent to which vital needs can be protected (e.g. water and clean air)– Extent to which disruptions to life will be reduced (e.g. disaster mitigation &

warning)– Likelihood of educating the public– Linkages to multiple disciplines

• Consistent with recommendations of the National Academies– NRC Decadal survey still under development, but it will guide near-term

priorities



Prioritization Criteria: Mission Concepts

• Budget• Technological Readiness (including necessary

infrastructure)• Science maturity at any given point in the timeline• Opportunities for international and domestic

collaboration• Increased opportunities for competition

– Technology investment needs– Need for results



2005 to 2015:Comprehensive Observing and Modeling of the

Earth System

Achievements and Decision Points


Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap2005-2015 Comprehensive Observing and Modeling of the Earth System

Investigation Mission Achievement

Atmos. Comp.

Aerosols impact on climate through clouds, anthropogenic additions

Multi-angle spectropolarimetric imaging (LEO) Distinguishing anthropogenic and natural aerosols and their

effects on climate3-D aerosol profiling (LEO)

Global atmospheric composition

UV/Vis/NIR imaging (L1)Improved understanding of sources of aerosols, long-range transport, ozone variability, & sun-atmosphere interactions.

Atmospheric composition (Cal/Val)

Cal/Val Free-flyerInsure smooth handoff of operational measurements and accurate calibration of NPOESS observations for science use

Climate/ Weather

Ice elevation changes / sea-ice thickness

High-resolution ice altimetry (LEO)Comparison with Icesat results; determine ice sheet contribution to sea level to within 0.05 mm/yr

Ocean circulation 3-D ocean altimetry (LEO)Determine contribution of mesoscale ocean eddies to global energy budget

Solar influence on climateHyperspectral imaging instrument for solar UV, EUV, X-rays (L1)

Understand feedback processes in the Earth’s atmosphere consistent with observed time scales of solar variability of total and spectral irradiance

Water Cold land processes SAR and/or passive microwave (LEO)Quantify snow water equivalent, areal extent; water resources planning; links to biogeochemistry

LifeBiomass changes for long-term storage of land carbon

Combined 3-D structure and multispectral imaging (e.g., radar, lidar & multispectral Visible imager) (LEO)

Accurate assessment of carbon sequestration on land

Solid Earth

Rates of change of surface positions and strains

Precision geodetic imaging (e.g., L-band InSAR) (LEO)

Time-dependent deformation maps of fault zones, volcanoes, slopes and ice sheets




2015 Modeling & Data Management Accomplishments

• Modeling Accomplishments– To be developed

• Data Management Accomplishments– US Integrated Earth Observing System (US IEOS) deployed,

including all retrospective and continuing data collected by the EOS and NOAA environmental satellites.

– Standards for metadata, data and data exchange between US and international partners complete.

– Decision points: • the state of cooperation between US agencies, and within and between

US and international partners. Questions of intellectual property rights etc., might be of concern

• Technological issues relating to data exchange.



Decision Points 2015We must answer tough questions about the current and future program at each decision point

• What missions must be flown to calibrate for/handoff to the NPOESS follow-on in 2025?

• What new lines of inquiry have been opened up by the discoveries we have made?

• Are each of the themes currently categorized appropriately in their phases of Exploration, Continuous Awareness, and Perspectives? Typical decision questions may be:

– Has the atmospheric chemistry flagship mission launched and is it preparing measurements for handover to NOAA– Have the current clusters made the expected progress towards operational use for decision support?– Have society’s priorities shifted, and what are the implications for the ordering of our clusters?– Is the Water cycle (the next cluster) prepared to enter the multi-mission continuous awareness decade?

• What missions have slipped in our projected timeline and how does that affect our clustering and future mission choices?

Many internal and external factors influence the questions we ask, and the answers we give, at this decision point:

• External Factors

– Administration increased/decreased interest in space activities

– Heightened public concern over climate change, air quality, fresh water availability, biodiversity, natural disasters, etc.

– Responsibility for Natural hazards or Climate Change assigned to one agency in the US– Joint NASA/NOAA identification of measurements for hand-off to NOAA for 2025 timeframe

• Internal Factors

– Scientific discoveries and technological breakthroughs

– NASA strategic focus shifts and budget constraints



2015 to 2025: Expanding Our View of Earth and Reach Into

Society



Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap2015-2025 Expanding Our View of Earth and Reach Into Society


Atmos. Comp.

Behavior of water vapor, clouds, aerosols, and ozone in the upper troposphere

Wide-swatch microwave 3-D sounding (e.g., nadir and limb) (MEO)

Understanding of “fast” processes like convection and cloud evolution

Global greenhouse gas distribution and change

Continuous, spectrally resolved Solar occultation (L2)

First daily 3-D global measurements of the Earth’s atmosphere and trace gasses

Climate/ Weather

Ice Elevation/Thickness

High-resolution ice altimetry (LEO)Comparison with Icesat results; determine whether rapid decline in sea ice is really loss or redistribution; determine ice sheet contribution to sea level to within 0.05 mm/yr

Ice penetrating radar (LEO)Quantify the dynamics of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet motion; determine topography beneath the ice sheet

Global tropospheric windsCombined ocean surface/ lower atmosphere winds (LEO)

Measurements of tropospheric winds over land & ocean directly for weather forecasts; improve ocean circulation models with wind and surface currents in coastal and open ocean

Cloud Feedback3-D clouds -- Cloudsat-Calipso follow-on (LEO)

Quantify cloud feedback in the climate system; enable verification of improved cloud/climate models.

Temperature/Humidity ChangeCal/Val instruments for NPOESS follow-on (LEO)

Successful hand-off to operational agency of capability to monitor and predict water vapor and temperature change

3-D cloud microphysics and aerosol distribution

Wide-swath 3-D cloud and aerosol profiling (LEO)

Narrow the uncertainties in climate sensitivity for both regional and global climate change. Includes regional cloud feedback and both direct and indirect aerosol forcing

Water

Rivers, wetlands, surface water storage

Precision/ interferometric altimetry (LEO)Quantify dynamics of surface water storage & availability at monthly and longer timescales;freshwater and flood monitoring and prediction; derived global discharge

Ocean salinity/soil moistureMicrowave radar/ radiometry - Aquarius/ Hydros follow-on (LEO)

Combined with temperatures and models to estimate thermal expansion of the ocean to within 0.05 mm/yr; assess potential for shut-down of dominant circulation patterns; quantify near-surface water storage

Groundwater storageTime-variable gravity – GRACE follow-on (LEO)

Quantify dynamics of subsurface storage; role of groundwater variations in climate; water availability; estimate sea level equivalent stored on land to 0.05 mm/yr

Cloud water, ice content and distribution

3-D profiling -- Cloudsat-Calipso follow-on (LEO)

Quantify H2O content of clouds

Rain process/ distribution 3-D rain profiling (LEO) Quantify 3-D structure of rainfall

Water quality Hyperpectral imaging (LEO)Quantify variations in freshwater quality, links to anthropogenic activities, land use and biogeochemistry

Root zone soil moisture Ground penetrating active microwave (LEO) characterize water distribution in root zone; improved weather and climate prediction



Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap2015-2025 Expanding Our View of Earth and Reach Into Society


Life

Changes in dissolved organic and inorganic carbon pools for long-term storage of ocean carbon

High performance ocean color imaging (UV/Vis/NIR) (LEO), supporting sea surface temperature and salinity measurements.

Accurate assessment of carbon sequestration, and CO2 drawdown in coastal zones and over global scales

Ocean particle profile and mixed layer depth

Upper ocean profiling (e.g., via blue/green lidar) (LEO)

Major contribution to understanding ocean biosphere

Biosignatures of life Hyperspectral imager (GEO or L1)Pathfinder measurement to complement the Terrestrial Planet Finder mission; characterize signatures of life in IR spectra

Plant functional groups on land and in ocean

High performance hyperspectral UV/Vis/NIR imaging (GEO)

Classification of vegetation on land and algal groups in ocean

Biomass and Vegetation Structure

Combined 3-D structure and multispectral imaging (e.g., radar, lidar, & multispectral Visible imaging) (LEO)

Total carbon content in vegetation on land

Solid Earth


Frequent, precision geodetic imaging (MEO constellation)

Understanding governing processes of deformation at high spatial/temporal resolution

Earth’s surface thermal changesMultispectral imaging in thermal IR (LEO)

Detection of volcanic and tectonic activity, land use change

Time-varying global gravity fieldTime-variable gravity – GRACE follow-on (LEO)

Improved understanding of the contribution of solid Earth, oceanographic, and hydrological process to gravity field






• Data Management Accomplishments– Data from the operating US IEOS and emerging International Global

Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) data system combined and functional and thematic Climate Data Records (CDRs) generated spanning in some cases 1970 to 2020.

– These CDRs used to characterize global variability of for example T, RH, vegetation greenness, sea level, sea ice extent, over the period of record.

– These thematic CDRs or the antecedent functional CDRs assimilated into Global and Regional models.

• US IEOS data archive successfully transformed from legacy (e.g., circa 2000) media to current 2020 integrated data system.

• Universal data discovery implemented across GEOSS



Possible Decision Points - 2025We must answer tough questions about the current and future program at each decision

point• Is it possible to handoff or plan handoff of Water cycle, Life cycle and/or Solid Earth

measurements to a national agency?• What new lines of inquiry have been opened up by the discoveries we have made?• Are each of the themes currently categorized appropriately in their phases of exploration,

Continuous Awareness, and Perspectives? Typical decision questions may be:– What are the next generation exploration measurements needed by atmospheric chemistry now that

operations are maintained by NOAA?– Will society want NASA to develop missions that help to monitor efforts to mitigate climate change?– Have the current clusters made the expected progress towards operational use for decision support?– Have society’s priorities shifted, and what are the implications for the ordering of our clusters?– Have technologies evolved that enable unanticipated yet much needed measurement capabilities?– Have we shown predictive capability for earthquakes, volcanoes, and other events with InSAR data?

• What missions have slipped in our projected timeline and how does that affect our clustering and future mission choices?

Many internal and external factors influence the questions we ask, and the answers we give, at this decision point:

• External Factors– US initiative to colonize Mars “by the end of this century”– Society starts to plan major population shifts to zones of greater habitability– Society requests solutions for climate control

• Internal Factors– Scientific discoveries and technological breakthroughs– NASA strategic focus shifts and budget constraints

• US IEOS decision to migrate from LEO observations to MEO or other vantage points to increase coverage, reduce cost



2025 to 2035 and Beyond: Evolving a “Nervous System” for Planet

Earth



Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap2025-2035 and Beyond Creating a “Nervous System” for Planet Earth


Water

Global soil moisture Passive/ active microwave (MEO) soil moisture in forested areas; improved weather and climate prediction; understanding of links with ecology, biogeochemistry

Global precipitation Active/ passive microwave (3 GEO) Continuous, global monitoring of rainfall; direct input to climate models and weather tracking/forecasting

Fresh Water Availability

(Cal/Val mission)

Cal/Val instruments for NPOESS follow-on Successful hand-off to operational agency of capability to monitor and predict water availability

Life

Changes in dissolved organic and inorganic carbon pools for long-term storage of ocean carbon

High performance ocean color imager (UV/Vis/NIR) (GEO); supporting sea surface temperature and salinity measurements.

Short repeat from GEO will provide decision support users knowledge of coastal zone changes in carbon, algal blooms, water quality

Advanced land cover changes

Hyperspectral UVVis/NIR imaging (LEO) Land cover use and change measured at high resolution, relationship to society, natural changes

Photosynthetic efficiency

Combined 3-D structure and multispectral imaging (e.g., lidar and multispectral Vis imaging) (LEO)

Assessment of plant and algal physiological status and productivity

Solid Earth


High temporal resolution geodetic imaging (GEO)

Rapid access to deforming area of interest globally for forecasting outcomes

High resolution global land topography

3-D land structure (e.g., Lidar and/or InSAR) (LEO)

Improved global topography and in conjunction with SRTM data first global measurement of topographic change

Time-varying global magnetic field

Distributed magnetometry (e.g., 12-sat constellation, LEO, 300-800 km, low-inclination & polar orbits)

Improved understanding of short-period variation in the main field, crustal remnant fields, and mantle current-induced fields






• Data Management Accomplishments– NASA research and technology development to support the U.S.

IEOS and International GEOSS data systems• The entire Earth data archive of the GEOSS automatically transitioned to

new media on a three year cycle. • Automated or background processes continuously check the health of

media and data and transition data to new media in the integrated system.

• Users of the GEOSS are completely unaware of storage location, media type, etc., and utilize universal data discovery tools to acquire data from anywhere in the globally distributed data system.

– Implementation and operation of these systems will be a national and international partnership



Roadmap Requirements

Key capabilities, dependencies on other roadmaps, assumptions

Human capital and infrastructure needs

Near-term priorities and gaps that should be addressed in upcoming NASA budget



Strategic Roadmap Interfaces

(1) Lunar Exploration

(2) Mars Exploration

(3) Solar System Exploration

(5) Crew Exploration Vehicle

(4) Search for Earth-like Planets

(6) STS - Return to Flight

(7) International Space Station

(8) Explore the Universe

(10) Sun-Earth System

(11) Aeronautics

(12) Education/ Outreach

(13) Power and Propulsion

Operational Agencies

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ModelsCapabilities

Cal/ValScience Results

Data products

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Linkage Between Strategic Roadmaps

Planetary ModelsModels developed for Earth have application to those developed for Mars and other terrestrial planets. This would include seismic models, geophysical models, meteorological models, atmospheric models, climate models, etc.

Understanding Extreme EnvironmentsMars has spectacular features that offer extremes compared to Earth, such as topography and dust storms. Analog sites on Earth can provide remote sensing opportunities for understanding images from Mars.

Global Ramifications of Biotic vs Abiotic ProcessesIt’s extremely hard to find an area or process not obfuscated by biology on Earth (such as mineral formation, gas production, and water/nutrient cycling). Mars may give us a terrestrial planet before adding biology.

Common Remote Sensing Instrumentation, Modeling and Data Analysis InfrastructureEarth science approaches and capabilities for measurement, processing of scientific data, and advanced modeling techniques related to data interoperability, can benefit Lunar, Mars and other planetary sciences, and increase scientific return and discovery, prediction, and decision making process.

Understanding the Shared Geology and Formation of the Earth and the MoonEarth/Moon formation, early history (esp. before the oldest rocks found on Earth), bombardment record, and other shared events. The moon is a “witness plate” to the environment in which life on the Earth arose and evolved.

Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) DevelopmentAerospace innovation for a new generation of platforms in support of NASA’s end-to-end science strategy

Significant linkages to Lunar, Mars, and Solar System Exploration Roadmaps (SRs 1, 2, and 3) and with the Aeronautic Roadmap (SR 11):



Linkage Between Earth & Sun Strategic Roadmaps

Understanding Changes in Earth’s Climate Joint investigation of the effects of solar variability on Earth’s climate and upper atmospheric chemistry dynamics include understanding of radiative forcing processes, energy input from dynamic magnetosphere, and solar energetic particle input

Understanding Ozone DepletionJoint efforts to understand ozone depletion in the polar winter night as a result of energetic particle precipitation

Understanding and Mitigating Societal Impacts of Solar VariabilityJoint efforts to predict solar variability and local space weather in order to mitigate impacts on society (e.g. communications, power grids, and air traffic routing). Specification aides in evaluating and correlating identified impacts with space weather, while future prediction capabilities will enable impact avoidance and/or mitigation.

Understanding Terrestrial Field SourcesSR 10 provides specification of space-based sources of magnetic fields to enable isolation and qualification of terrestrial field sources

Understanding Seismic Wave SourcesSR 10 provides specification of ionospheric state in order to detect and quantify deviations due to seismic wave sources

Significant linkages to the Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap (SR 10):



Linkages from the Capability Roadmap Teams

• Anticipate Capability Roadmap Team proposed linkages from:– Advanced Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis Capability Roadmap Team

• For complex systems such as the Earth, our knowledge and understanding is captured through modeling and simulation

– Scientific Instruments and Sensors Capability Roadmap Team• Observations from space and supporting Earth-based remote and in situ sensing

• Science questions are pushing the limits of spatial and temporal coverage

• Active sensing for the third dimension

– Autonomous Systems and Robotics Capability Roadmap Team• Automating the sensorweb/ modelweb to observe dynamic phenomena and

accelerate the pace of discovery and awareness

• Capability Roadmap Team proposed linkages included (in backup) for:– Nanotechnology– Advanced Telescopes & Observatories – High Energy Power and Propulsion



Key Technical Capability & Infrastructure Needs

• Key Technical Capability Need– Capacity to connect multiple observing and modeling systems into

synergistic networks/ system of systems• Sensorweb/ modelweb simulators and systems analysis capacity to

advance the state-of-the-art in distributed collaborative observing and modeling

• Key Infrastructure Need– Full system for gathering data, analyzing data, assimilating data, and

distributing data/results to decision makers on time, with the right information.

• Assimilation, data storage, data analysis, knowledge discovery from existing/new datasets, data archiving, data accessing, data distribution

• Distributed, collaborative modeling of the Earth, its major component systems, and their interactions

• Multiple, diverse levels of access and cost to enable and encourage exploratory/ broad use for science, applications, and education



Other Needs – Research to Operations

• The Transition of Research Results to Operational Use is a Strategic Challenge for Both NASA and NOAA

• Drivers for NASA – NOAA Research to Operations (R2O) Collaboration

– Exploiting NASA R&D for NOAA operational improvements in a constrained fiscal environment yet growing user requirements

– Improving/formalizing process for operational requirements/priorities– Evaluating NASA Earth science missions early for potential operations– Rapidly infuse new satellite technologies, capabilities, operational

applications – Implementing $4M in FY 2005 to transition NASA ocean-related research into

NOAA operations

• NASA and NOAA will develop an end-to-end process for: – early identification of operational needs during Phase A, – down-selection criteria during Phase B, – trade-offs during Phase C/D, and – transition planning during Phase E (MO&DA).

• Working Group Kickoff Meeting Nov. 2004, Transition Plan by late 2005



Top Near-Term Priorities

• Begin mission formulation to address the near-term measurement priorities on the Roadmap as identified on timeline

• Continue opportunities for Exploration and Discovery through the Earth System Science Pathfinder Program

• Modeling and data systems investments for the full information cycle (observation - modeling - analysis - observation tasking)

– Advance capability to integrate Earth observations and models across disciplines, institutions, and temporal and spatial scales

– Enhance capabilities to effectively locate and link relevant data, information, and metadata

– Enhance capabilities for scientific data stewardship, data assimilation, and model reanalysis

• Use Atmospheric Composition and Climate "clusters" to define a Sun-Climate Flagship mission for 2015

• Advance the maturity of measurements identified on the timeline – And the maturity of their implementing technological options

• Continue Strategy and Roadmap Refinement– NRC Decadal Survey– NASA Advisory Council Summer Study– Expand community involvement– Systems analysis for more rigorous requirements analysis and

implementation definition



Roadmap Summary

A graphical depiction of your roadmap and a summary of major options and strategic decisions



Frequent Transitions to Operational

Partners

New Discoveries Contribute to Continuous Awareness Capabilities

New Discoveries Contribute to

Building Long-Term Perspectives

Atmos. Comp.

Climate/ Weather Water LifeSolid Earth

CONTINUOUS AWARENESS:

Integrating “Clusters” of Missions, Modeling, Networking, and Management Attention

2005 2015 2025 2035

Roadmap Strategy for Implementation Emphasis

INCREASING OPERATIONAL PARTNER CAPACITY

On-going investments in Exploration and Discovery

Building and Maintaining long-term Perspectives

on our planet

Understanding processes through

Continuous Awareness

Frequent Transitions to Operational

Partners

Process Understanding

Helps Build Perspectives

Base of “Awareness” Investments that

Build towards Future Clusters

BUILDING PERSPECTIVES



2005 2015 2025 2035

Preliminary Investigation Timeline

Atmos. Comp.

Climate

Water

Life

Solid Earth

New lines of Inquiry

GP

M

Surface

Deform

ation

Ice Elevation/

Thickness

Biom

ass

Ocean C

irculation

ES

SP

Cloud F

eedback

CloudsatC

alipso

OS

TM

Aquarius

Surface W

aterS

torage

Root Z

one S

oil Moisture

Rain process/

Distribution

Ice Elevation

Changes

Earth S

urface T

hermal

Em

ission

Tim

e-variableG

ravity

Plant P

hysiology &

Function T

ype

Photosynthetic

Efficiency

Salinity/

Soil m

oisture

Tem

perature/H

umidity C

hange(C

al/Val)

Ocean C

arbonS

torage

Biom

ass/V

egetationstructure

Tim

e-varying m

agnetic field

Ocean C

arbonS

torage

Global

Soil M

oisture

Advanced

Land Cover

Surface

Topography

Ocean P

articleP

rofiles/Mixed

Layer Depth

3-D C

loud M

icrophysics

Water

Quality

Global T

roposphericW

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Global A

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Tropospheric

Com

position

Biosignatures

Global

Greenhouse

Gases

Fresh W

ater A

vailability(C

al/val)

Global

Precipitation

Cold Land

Processes

Aerosols

*The Strategic Roadmap Committee did not discuss the priority of currently funded activities, and was asked to assume their successful completion in planning this 30-year roadmap.

Exploration

Awareness

Perspective

Selected*

NP

PLD

CM

Hydros

Surface

Deform

ation

Surface

Deform

ation

ES

SP

ES

SP

ES

SP

ES

SP

Operational

Operational

Operational

Operational

…



2005 2015 2025 2035

Investigation Timeline with Strategic Connections

Atmos. Comp.

Climate

Water

Life

Solid Earth

New lines of Inquiry

GP

M

Surface

Deform

ation

Biom

ass

Ocean C

irculation

ES

SP

Cloud F

eedback

CloudsatC

alipso

OS

TM

Aquarius

Surface W

aterS

torage

Root Z

one S

oil Moisture

Rain process/

Distribution

Ice Elevation

Changes

Earth S

urface T

hermal

Em

ission

Tim

e-variableG

ravity

Plant P

hysiology &

Function T

ype

Photosynthetic

Efficiency

Salinity/

Soil m

oisture

Tem

perature/H

umidity C

hange(C

al/Val)

Ocean C

arbonS

torage

Biom

ass/V

egetationstructure

Tim

e-varying m

agnetic field

Ocean C

arbonS

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Global

Soil M

oisture

Advanced

Land Cover

Surface

Topography

Ocean P

articleP

rofiles/Mixed

Layer Depth

3-D C

loud M

icrophysics

Water

Quality

Global T

roposphericW

inds

OC

O

Glory

Atm

os. Com

p.(C

al/val)

Global A

tmos.

Com

position

Tropospheric

Com

position

Biosignatures

Global

Greenhouse

Gases

Fresh W

ater A

vailability(C

al/val)

Global

Precipitation

Cold Land

Processes

Aerosols

*The Strategic Roadmap Committee did not discuss the priority of currently funded activities, and was asked to assume their successful completion in planning this 30-year roadmap.

Exploration

Awareness

Perspective

Selected*

NP

PLD

CM

Hydros

Surface

Deform

ation

Surface

Deform

ation

ES

SP

ES

SP

ES

SP

ES

SP

Operational

Operational

Operational

Operational

…

Missions with strong science connections to other roadmaps Ice E

levation/T

hickness



Timeline Flexibility• Several factors can influence Earth science program timeline• There will be a continual feedback loop on results and progress• Timeline accommodates for flexibility

– Impacting event causes a decision point, at which there are several options: a) Focus altered within exploration or awareness portions of cluster

b) New line of inquiry is initiated

c) Order of clusters changed

d) Hand-off to operational agency is accelerated

Time2005 2015 2025 2035

New track

Impacting event

a

c

b

Operationald

b



Other Information

Pointers to any available information on cost of roadmap elements

Cooperation possibilities and benefits



Key Cooperation Opportunities

• Multiple Interagency Partnerships through Presidential-level Initiatives– Climate Change Research (June 2001)– Global Earth Observation (July 2003)

• U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System– Collaborative Oceans Research (December 2004)

• Near-term coordination with operational remote sensing agencies to transition key time series Earth system data records from the research to the operational domain

– Global Land Cover Operations through OLI on NPOESS– Global Ocean Color, Vegetation Properties, Surface Temperature, and

Atmospheric Properties through VIIRS on NPP and then NPOESS

• Bilateral International Partnerships – Framework of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems

• Commercial Value of Earth Observations– Presidential Space Policy on Commercial Remote Sensing– Benefits of Competition and the Feedback of the Marketplace



Educating and Inspiring Future Generations

• Earth science and applications from space continues to excite, inform, and educate the general public and enhance our daily lives.

• NASA Earth science research offers unique opportunity to engage, inform, and educate the scientists and technologists of tomorrow through missions with direct human relevance, both to life on Earth as well as to our human need to explore and discover.

• By revealing the secrets of how the Earth system works in exciting and innovative ways, NASA can ignite a spark that stimulates students to pursue these endeavors by becoming scientists and engineers.

• Earth science education community is meeting to define an education roadmap for the next decade, and will also provide input for the 30 yr timeframe of this roadmap.

– Earth Science education roadmap highlights the importance of engaging and inspiring the public, partnering with agencies that also contribute to this effort, building on this inspiration to educate students and support educators in their efforts to prepare students for the career paths needed.

• The results of the on-going Earth Science Education Roadmap effort, combined with that from the Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Committee, will be incorporated into the Education Strategic Roadmap, which is only now getting underway.



Back-up Slides/ Appendix Material

Disclaimers



Disclaimer for the April 15 Interim Presentation

• The Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap Committee met on March 16 & 17 and discussed the content and scope of this presentation

• The April 15 Presentation represents the work of NASA Staff based upon the editorial and inputs of individual Committee member and the established subcommittees

• This Interim report does not represent a consensus position of the Committee, as the schedule did not allow the Committee to meet and discuss as a whole this presentation

• The Committee anticipates coming to consensus on the content of this presentation and giving direction from the development of the June 1 document at its next meeting.



Disclaimer for June 1 Report

• The Committee and staff anticipate that the final report developed as a result of its next meeting will identify notional mission priorities and anticipated accomplishments by decade.

• The implementation concepts for the measurements identified in this roadmap range in fidelity from carefully studied options to initial notional approaches.

• The pace and schedule for the development of this strategic roadmap did not allow for the extensive systems analysis to refine and validate the implementation reflected in the document.

• This initial strategic roadmap document represents a recommended conceptual framework for the future of Earth science and applications from space, but will require on-going analysis and validation over the coming years.

• This strategic roadmap includes currently funded NASA investigations and their planned accomplishments for information purposes only

– NASA asked the Committee to assume that NASA will complete currently funded missions in the first decade of the Roadmap, including:

• missions in implementation that NASA has committed to complete• missions in formulation that have yet to pass their Mission Confirmation Review• assuming that NASA will find a flight opportunity for the Glory instrumentation

– The Committee did not prioritize or make recommendations concerning currently funded activities




NASA’s Constituencies and Role



The Delicate Balance of Cosmos and Earth

• The human need to explore is never exhausted.

• The compass that today guides this timeless endeavor is scientific inquiry. – science that gazes outward, providing the grand questions that

challenge us to journey farther and farther from home.

– science that peers inward, asking the practical questions that help us to make Earth safer, protect our citizens, and expand our economy

• Knowledge of the Earth drives the economic growth and environmental security that allow us to be an exploring nation– This program must devote equal attention to both questions that

underpin our outward desires, and questions that support our inward needs.



Backup: Significance of the U.S. IEOS

• The U.S. government is developing an over-arching strategy for Earth Observation

– Previously there were pieces via science programs such as the Climate Change Science Program

– The U.S. IEOS provides a coherent, overarching, broader, strategy

• The U.S. IEOS Strategic Plan is organized around nine specific societal benefits

– The U.S. IEOS provides a coherent and politically compelling rationale of crosscutting societal, scientific, and economic imperatives

– The U.S. IEOS Strategic Plan identifies (and recommends to OMB for investment) five specific near-term opportunities

• The U.S. IEOS Strategic Plan is being developed by the U.S. government in consultation with the science community

– First public workshop held June 16-17, 2004, second scheduled for May 9-10, 2005

– Workshops provide a vehicle to bring the Earth science community together in order to have its views heard



Backup: Significant National/International Science Programs

National Programs International Programs

Climate Change

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 13 Agencies)

Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP, 12 Agencies)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Weather U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP, 7 Agencies)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) & THORPEX

Natural Hazards

Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction (SDR, 14 Agencies)

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)

Sustainability CENR Subcommittee on Ecosystems

World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD)

Programs in Which NASA Has a National-Level Role



External Constituencies and Corresponding NASA Roles: NASA’s Strength is in the Intersection

Aerospace

Innovation Societal

Benefits

Space Education/

Inspiration

Science

This is what we mean by

“as only NASA can”

Understand

InformExplore



NASA’s Vital Role: Front-End Research to Enable National Priorities & Societal Benefits

SOCIETALBENEFITS

Creation ofNew Knowledgeand Capabilities

ExplorationDiscovery

Development

NASANSF

EnvironmentalInformationProduction

NASANOAAUSGS

EnvironmentalInformation

Use

Govt AgenciesBusinesses

NGOsPeople

Environmental Information Infrastructure

Needs, Requirementsand CapabilitiesFeedback Loops

National PrioritiesPresidential Initiatives

Space Act

SPACEEXPLORATION

OUTCOMES

SCIENTIFICKNOWLEDGE

• Societal Benefits of Environmental Information– Effective Feedback Keeps the Pipeline Filled and Flowing



Backup Slides/Appendix Material

Joint Strategic Roadmap #9 and #10 L-1 Mission Concept



Joint Sun-Earth Connection at L1

Science Objective

Include solar activity forecasts and the Earth’s response into climate forecasts.

Science Goals

Understand feedback processes in the Earth’s atmosphere consistent with observed time scales of solar variability of total and spectral irradiance.

Determine if the patterns of solar surface temperature are in agreement with convective theory.

Understand the varying spectrum of radiation emitted by magnetic regions of the Sun.

Additional Objective

Provide an inter-calibration standard for Earth observing sensors.

Deliver continuous space weather observations from L1.

Mission Description

L1 orbit. Duration: One Solar cycle (11 years). 6 year minimum to observe Max to Min.

Measurement Strategy

Spatial imaging of bolometric flux of solar photosphere

Rapid (~1min) global imaging spectroscopy of solar UV, EUV and soft X-rays at moderate resolution

Imaging solar magnetograph

Synoptic scale imaging of terrestrial fluxesSynoptic, high temporal and spatial resolution

spectral imaging of the sunlit Earth over the entire ultraviolet (UV), visible, and infrared (IR) spectrum

Synoptic measurements of environmentally important chemical species and tracers in Earth's atmosphere

Synoptic measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, upper-atmosphere dynamics and cloud height/phase with a resolution of at least 10km

Observations of backside of the Moon (approx. monthly) to check/calibrate instruments. Integrate calibrations with LEO and GEO.

Solar Coronagraph and Space Environment Instruments provide continuous upstream measurements of energetic particles at L1



Backup Slides/Appendix Material

Capability, Infrastructure, and Other Needs



Backup: Key Required Technical Capabilities

• Develop capacity to connect multiple observing and modeling systems into synergistic networks/ system of systems

– Sensorweb/ modelweb simulators and systems analysis capacity to advance the state-of-the-art in distributed collaborative observing and modeling

• Other Required Capabilities:– Multi-Mission/Multi-Model Capability to:

• Identify, prioritize, design, and develop observing and modeling systems– Requires the capacity to assess and optimize the multi-objective benefits of new systems in the context of

larger networks/ system of systems– Systems Analysis capabilities for ongoing assessments of system of systems and future options– Design for operations (e.g., to reduce the impact of extended operations)– Includes the mission design and development facilities, methods, and tools to complement human capital

capabilities in systems architecture and program/project management and implementation

• Deploy and operate observing and modeling systems and inter-system networks– Communications systems and navigation systems – Mission and network control systems– Observing system launch and deployment systems

• Identify and develop technologies to improve and enable new observing and modeling systems and inter-system networks

– New instrument technologies, computation and information technologies, supporting/ platform technologies, and system design/ implementation technologies

– New airborne platforms, telepresence, and global range communication and control capabilities to support integrated space-, suborbital, and in situ observing networks.

– Technologies with the potential to improve future operational systems



Backup: Infrastructure Needs

• Full system for gathering data, analyzing data, assimilating data, and distributing data/results to decision makers on time, with the right information.

– Assimilation, data storage, data analysis, knowledge discovery from existing/new datasets, data archiving, data accessing, data distribution

– Distributed, collaborative modeling of the Earth, its major component systems, and their interactions

– Multiple, diverse levels of access and cost to enable and encourage exploratory/ broad use for science, applications, and education

• Other Infrastructure Needs:– On-going availability within the Nation of multi-mission infrastructure for:

• Developing and manufacturing observation missions– Includes design centers, clean rooms, test chambers, etc.

• Launching (space-based) or deploying (Earth-based such as Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles, UAVs ) observing missions

– including available national launch capacity and international capacity to deploy validation measurement systems

• Operating missions– Infrastructure to coordination and control of distributed, collaborating observing and modeling systems – Guidance, navigation, and communications infrastructure -- physical implementation of communications and

navigation system coupled to:» Future decisions on observation mission orbits and vantage points» Space-based relay vs. ground-based communications and/or navigation architectures



Backup: Human Capital and Other Needs

• Agency human capital and infrastructure– System of systems scientific, engineering, and management knowledge,

expertise, and tools• To deal with the complexity of sensor-/ model-webs

• Multidiscipline “big picture” workforce

– Program and project implementation and management knowledge, expertise, and tools

• To accelerate the pace of discovery by implementing missions and systems more quickly, more reliably, and more efficiently

• Other unique requirements– Human capital needs extend beyond the Agency:

• Systems of systems expertise within the academic community for integrated Earth observing and modeling

– Science, engineering, technology

• Expertise within government agencies and commercial entities to apply Earth observing and modeling results

– To support management and policy decisions– To provide valuable services and benefits



Recommendations from the Capability Roadmap Teams

Proposed Capability Linkages to Earth Science and Applications from Space



Possible Nanotechnology CapabilitiesProposed Connections from the Capability Roadmap Team

Capability Requirement Date Required

Investment Start

ROMCost

Rationale for Capability

1. Ultra-high strength, lighter, and multi-functional materials (100x stronger than steel), i.e., large lightweight antenna

There probably is no requirement on improved materials, however, based on current Earth Science and Applications from Space concepts studying the myriad of phenomena and dynamic characteristics of Earth from space, lightweight , high strength, and multi-functional materials will enhance mission success while also saving on overall costs of missions due to less mass, longer durability, etc.

2010 2005 ? Lightweight , high strength, and multi-functional materials will enhance mission success while also saving on overall costs of missions due to less mass, longer durability, etc.

2. High efficiency power generation and storage

High efficiency power generation and storage would greatly enhance any space based mission by requiring less mass and fewer complex “power capture” systems that could potentially be “single point failure nodes”

2012 2005 Long term power needs on long missions in Near-Earth orbit are drivers for cost and in some cases, determine durations of missions. Advancing technologies within the nanotechnology world have promising solutions on several fronts with high efficiency power generation and storage capabilities

3. High miniaturized spacecraft systems and instruments; Micro-electronics 100x smaller and less power consumingRobotics, instrument systems

High miniaturized spacecraft systems, instruments (including lasers), smaller, radiation tolerant and less power consuming electronics would mean less mass and less power required to meet mission goals

2010 2005 Less mass miniaturized spacecraft systems and less power consuming electronics are nicely coupled to make missions more affordable and realistic for achieving the science goals. Nanotechnology is at the forefront of developing these technologies to facilitate and make possible these strategic features for all future missions



Possible Advanced Telescopes & Observatories CapabilitiesProposed Connections from the Capability Roadmap Team

Capability Requirement Date Required

Investment Start

ROM Cost

Rationale for Capability

1. 2-5 m deployable collectors

Collection areas sufficient to enable high-sensitivity active and passive optical measurements from low- to high-Earth orbit. Areal cost <$1K/m2, areal density <0.5 kg/m2.Missions: EASI, WS LIDAR.

2020 2005 ? Current meter-class collectors offer insufficient scope for mounting missions subject to low photon efficiency beyond LEO. Some concepts require large “photon buckets” even at LEO.

2. Meter-class deformable aberration compensated mirrors

Coherent active optical measurements require closed-loop dynamic wavefront correction in order to optimize system response. Missions: HResCO2.

2017 2005 ? Optimization of system photon efficiency reduces requirement on collection area and/or source power.

3. 50-m deformable deployable RF reflectors.

Coherent active radiofrequency measurements require closed-loop dynamic wavefront correction in order to optimize system response.Missions: LEO/MEO/GEO InSAR, GSM.


4. Wavefront sensing and control algorithms with 1/20-wave resolution.

Coherent active optical measurements require closed-loop dynamic wavefront correction in order to optimize system response.Missions: HResCO2.


5. Precise, repeatable deployable support structures.

Precision static, deployable, or assembled structures are required to enable all >4 m implementations.Missions: EASI, WS LIDAR, LEO/MEO/GEO InSAR.

2015 2005 ? High stability precision positioning is a key enabling capability that overcomes size, packaging, and space environment issues enabling operation of advanced telescopes and observatories identified in the NASA strategic plan.

6. Test and validation techniques for large area reflectors.

Ground verification of on-orbit performance is desirable for mission assurance purposes.Missions: GSM, LEO/MEO/GEO InSAR.

2010 2005 ? Future large space optical and radiofrequency reflectors will not be ground testable and will thus require investment in new modeling and validation approaches.



Possible High Energy Power & Propulsion CapabilitiesProposed Connection from the Capability Roadmap Team

• Science & robotic spacecraft power – Requirement : Power required for instruments and

communication– Timeframe required: 2008 and beyond– When investment in capability should begin: Now– ROM Capability Investment Cost: TBD– Rationale for the capability requirement: Must have power to

do missions




Committee Membership and Subcommittee Assignments



Committee Membership• Co-Chairs:

– Orlando Figueroa, NASA Science Mission Directorate, co-chair– Diane Evans, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, co-chair– Charles Kennel, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, co-chair

• Members:– Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center– Leopold Andreoli, Northrop Grumman Space Technology– Walter Brooks, Ames Research Center– Jack Dangermond, ESRI– William Gail, Vexcel Corporation– Colleen Hartman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration– Christian Kummerow, Colorado State University– Joyce Penner, University of Michigan– Douglas Rotman, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory– David Siegel, University of California, Santa Barbara– David Skole, Michigan State University– Sean Solomon, Carnegie Institution of Washington– Victor Zlotnicki, Jet Propulsion Laboratory



Committee Membership

• Coordinators:– Gordon Johnston, Mission Directorate Coordinator, Designated Federal Official– Azita Valinia, Advanced Planning and Systems Integration Coordinator

• Liaison Members– Roberta Johnson, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Liaison to the Education Strategic

Roadmap Committee– Joint Subcommittee (approx. 2 members from each) with the Sun-Solar System Connection Strategic

Roadmap Committee• Ex Officio Members

– Jack Kaye, Earth-Sun System Division– Ronald Birk, Earth-Sun System Division– George Komar, Earth Science Technology Office

• Staff– Mariann Albjerg, Earth-Sun System Technology Office– Jeff Booth, Jet Propulsion Laboratory– Paul Brandinger, Goddard Space Flight Center– Richard Burg, Goddard Space Flight Center– Tony Freeman, APIO Systems Engineer, Jet Propulsion Laboratory– Parminder Ghuman, Earth-Sun System Technology Office– Steve Hipskind, Ames Research Center– Malcolm Ko, Langley Research Center– Tom Mace, Dryden Flight Research Center– Fritz Policelli, Stennis Space Center– Kari Risher, Jet Propulsion Laboratory– Dave Young, Langley Research Center



Member Subcommittee Assignments

• Explorations– Waleed Abdalati*

– David Siegel

– Sean Solomon

– Leo Andreoli

– Bill Gail

• Maintaining Perspectives– Colleen Hartman*

– Victor Zlotnicki

– Joyce Penner

• Continuous Awareness– Doug Rotman*

– Walt Brooks

– Chris Kummerow

– David Skole

– Jack Dangermond

• SRM #9 Members of Joint 9/10 Subcommittee– Chris Kummerow

– David Siegel

Documents

Earth Science and Applications from Space Strategic Roadmap DRAFT, 4/18/2005 AM1Strategic Roadmap Committee #9 Interim Status Report Earth Science & Applications