Earth Policy_ Brown

8/8/2019 Earth Policy_ Brown

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1

The Economic Costs of

Ecological Deficits(part 1 of 3)



As populations have multiplied and incomes have risen,demands on the natural support systems of manyeconomies have become excessive, generating ecologicaldeficits. The effects of these deficits are first seen at thelocal level as deforestation leads to fuelwood shortages,overplowing leads to falling crop yields, overgrazing leadsto emaciated herds of cattle, or overpumping drops watertables and dries up wells.

At some point, these expanding deficits begin to rein-force each other, creating an ecological disaster of national proportions. This is now happening in China— where disappearing forests, deteriorating rangelands,eroding croplands, and falling water tables are converg-ing to create a dust bowl of historic dimensions. China’ssheer geographic size, the weight of its 1.3 billion peopleon the land, and the pace of its economic expansion putit on the frontline of the deteriorating relationshipbetween the global economy and the earth’s ecosystem.

Although China is not well prepared for it, it is now atwar. It is not invading armies that are claiming its terri-tory, but expanding deserts. Old deserts are advancingand new ones are forming, like guerrilla forces strikingunexpectedly, forcing Beijing to fight on several fronts.

























28 THE EARTH POLICY READER

an effective response is even more demanding. At thispoint, there is no funded plan in place or on the drawingboard that will halt the advancing deserts.

China is taking some of the right steps, such as payingfarmers to plant trees on fragile soils. But it still has along way to go in order to reduce livestock numbers to asustainable level and to stabilize aquifers. If the govern-ment is serious about reversing desertification, it willhave to commit a massive amount of human and finan-cial resources. In terms of national priorities, it willhave to decide whether to use public resources to com-

plete the Three Gorges Dam and build the costly pro-posed south-north water diversion project or, instead, tohalt the deserts that are marching southward and east-ward and that could eventually occupy Beijing. WhetherChina can effectively respond to this threat may offersome insight as to whether the world as a whole will beable to arrest the deteriorating relationship between theglobal economy and the earth’s ecosystem before it leads

to economic decline.

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Earth Policy_ Brown