EAD Portfolio Analysis:Dependency and Diversification in

the NGATS PortfolioDan Goldner (Ventana Systems, Inc.)

Jack Fearnsides (MJF Strategies)18 July 2006

Attributes of an OI

1. What constraint(s) does the OI address? We labeled OIs as having an effect on one or more of the following considerations:

noise, emissions, runway capacity, terminal airspace capacity, enroute capacity, oceanic capacity, bad-weather capacity, landside capacity, airport surface capacity, certification capacity, security, safety, cost

2. What R&D activities are required for the OI to be implemented?PMD provided us with a list from Ed Koenke et al. of 97 R&D topics distilled out of

the Agency Budget Guidance and associated with OIs from an old roadmap. Starting from Koenke’s mapping, JF labeled each OI with one or more of the 97 R&D activities required to produce the OI.

3. Which of the other OIs are prerequisites to the OI?Based on the descriptions of each OI from the Roadmap, JF labeled each OI with

any other OIs that seemed to be prerequisites.4. What enabling systems or infrastructure are required?

These were provided for many OIs in the Roadmap. For the remaining OIs, we assumed “none”.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Our choices for each OI of constraints addressed, R&D tasks required, prerequisite OIs, and enabling infrastructure are our best estimate from the information provided, but we consider them to be PLACEHOLDERS pending a thorough review by the IPTs via PMD.

oi091oi090oi089

oi088oi083

rd068

oi086

oi084

oi085oi077

oi082

oi078

oi081oi076

rd055rd056

rd060

oi075

Noise

seg 1 seg2 seg 3 seg 4 seg 5 seg 6 seg 7seg 0

Noise OIs, R&D

Runway

oi119oi118rd081

oi103

oi149

ADS-BCDTI/MMD

<oi134>

<oi135>

<oi155>

rd071rd074

oi109

rd055

rd068

rd069

rd070

oi161

oi163

oi182

rd078

rd080

rd073

rd021

oi168

oi107

oi106

rd091

oi152

oi147rd008

rd020

rd022 oi179

seg 1 seg2 seg 3 seg 4 seg 5 seg 6

Runway OIs, Platforms, and R&D

oi179

oi120

oi121

oi138

oi144

oi145

oi180

oi181

oi187

rd079

oi137

ERAM

oi143

oi160

oi188

oi192

ADS-BCDTI/MMDseg 1 seg2 seg 3 seg 4 seg 5 seg 6seg 0

Enroute

oi110

oi117

oi123

oi124

oi140

oi169

oi193oi194

rd068

rd055

oi125

oi126

oi141

oi170

Data link

<oi139>

<oi142>

oi127

oi128

oi142

oi164

oi197

oi198

oi199

oi200

oi129

oi130

<oi107>

SDNSDP

SWIM

<oi106><oi109>

rd075

Enroute OIs, Platforms and R&D

oi013

oi021

oi012

oi020oi019

oi010

oi011

oi032

oi005

oi018

oi009

oi030

oi031

oi029

oi007

oi008

oi017

oi025

oi026

oi027

oi028

oi120

oi016oi015

oi006

oi022

oi023

oi024

oi001

oi002

oi003

oi004

oi014

seg 1 seg2 seg 3 seg 4 seg 5 seg 6seg 0

seg 7

Weather

Weather OIs

oi013

oi021

A/C wx sensorsA/G datalink

oi012

oi020

SWIM

oi019

oi010

oi011

oi032

oi005

Wx NEO Dissemination System

oi018

Data link

oi009

oi030

oi031

Ground wx sensors

FIS-BNEO

oi029

oi007

oi008

oi017

oi025

oi026

oi027

oi028

oi120

oi016

NEXRAD

oi015

oi006

oi022

oi023

oi024

UAT FIS-B

Ground vortex sensors

oi001

oi002

oi003

oi004

oi014

Space Wx Sensors

seg 1 seg2 seg 3 seg 4 seg 5 seg 6seg 0

seg 7

WeatherWeather OI’s and Platforms

oi013

oi021

A/C wx sensors

A/G datalink

oi012

rd028

oi020

rd001rd004 rd017rd026

SWIM

oi019

oi010

oi011

oi032

oi005

Wx NEO Dissemination System

oi018

Data link

oi009

oi030

oi031

Ground wx sensorsrd027

FIS-BNEO

oi029

rd006

oi007

oi008

oi017

oi025

oi026

oi027

oi028

oi120

rd002rd059

oi016

rd030

rd056

NEXRAD

oi015

oi006

oi022

oi023

oi024

rd008

UAT FIS-BGround vortex sensors

rd078

rd029

oi001

oi002

oi003

oi004

oi014

Space Wx Sensors

seg 1 seg2 seg 3 seg 4 seg 5 seg 6seg 0

seg 7

Weather

Weather OIs, platforms, and R&D

Similar structures (not shown) exist for:

• Terminal• Landside (people, baggage, cargo)• Surface Movement of Aircraft (taxiing etc)• Oceanic• Certification• Security• Safety

ADS-B

oi131

oi147

oi148

oi149

oi152

oi153

oi154

oi155

oi156

oi157

oi158

oi160

oi161

oi162

oi163

oi164

oi165

oi201

oi224

A/G datalink

oi001

oi002

oi010

oi011

oi012

oi013

ADS oi185

A/C wx sensors

oi001

oi002

oi003

oi010

oi012

oi013

CDTI oi185

CDTI/MMD

oi131

oi147

oi148

oi149

oi151

oi152

oi153

oi154

oi155

oi156

oi157

oi158

oi159

oi160

oi161

oi162

oi163

oi164

oi165

oi186

Data link

oi030

oi032

oi126

oi132

oi133

oi134

oi135

ERAMoi144

oi145

ERAM/URET oi223ETMS/ASD oi223FIS-B oi030

Ground vortex sensors oi006

Ground wx sensorsoi004

oi009

NEOoi030

oi069NEXRAD oi007

NNEW

oi005

oi015

oi016

oi017

oi018

oi019

oi020

oi021

oi025

oi026

oi027

oi028Policy

oi066

oi067

oi068

oi069

oi071

oi072

oi073Satcom

oi165

oi186

SDN oi200

SDP oi200

Space Wx Sensors oi003

SWIM

oi005

oi007

oi008

oi015

oi016

oi017

oi018

oi019

oi020

oi021

oi023

oi024

oi025

oi026

oi027

oi028

oi200

UAT FIS-B oi022

WVAS oi167

constraint level

baseline constraintconstraint change

fractiontask

completespending

burn rate

fraction planned benefit expectedtask is active

benefit vs completion Paretoplanned duration

fraction planned benefit realized

fraction constraint change realized

task success

fractionfleet

equipped

benefit vs equipage Pareto

equipage rate

scheduled start

equipage start

cumulativecost

capacity

equipage effect

binding constraintconstraint distanceshadow strength

total cost

planned endstate constraint

This model estimates capacity as a function of the % complete and the success of R&D, platform, and OI

tasks and the % of the fleet equipped for each platform

Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

Task Completion

fraction taskcomplete

spending

burn rate

fraction planned benefit expected

task is active

benefit vs completion Paretoplanned duration

scheduled start

fraction planned benefit expected1

0.75

0.5

0.25

08

8

8 8 8

7 7

7 7 7

6 6

6

6 6

5

5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4

4

4 4

3 3 3 3

3

3

2 2 2

2

2 2

1 1 1

1

1 1

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024Time (fy)

fraction planned benefit expected[oi103] : Current dmnl1 1 1fraction planned benefit expected[oi118] : Current dmnl2 2 2fraction planned benefit expected[oi119] : Current dmnl3 3fraction planned benefit expected[oi149] : Current dmnl4 4fraction planned benefit expected[oi152] : Current dmnl5 5fraction planned benefit expected[oi161] : Current dmnl6 6fraction planned benefit expected[oi163] : Current dmnl7 7 7fraction planned benefit expected[oi168] : Current dmnl8 8 8

Current

task is active[task]

2006 2011 2016 2020 2025Time (fy)

oi103

oi118

oi119

oi149

oi152

oi161

oi163

oi168

10 0.64

2016

Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

Equipage

<fraction planned benefit expected>

fraction planned benefit realized

fractionfleet

equipped

benefit vs equipage Pareto

equipage rate

equipage start

equipage effect

1

0.75

0.5

0.25

0 4 4

4

4

4

4

4

44

44

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3 3 3 3 3

2 2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

22

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 11 1

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024fraction fleet equipped[Data link] : Current dmnl1 1 1 1 1 1Equipage Effect dmnl2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Platform Implementaion dmnl3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Realized Benefit dmnl4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

<scheduled start> <planned duration>

0.9

0.21

2009

2006 12

Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

OI EffectivenessOI162 realized benefit (with prereqs)

1

0.75

0.5

0.25

0 7 7

7

77 7

6 6

6

6

6 6

5

5

5

55 5

4

4

4

4

4 4

3

3

3 3 3 3

2

2 2 2 2 2

1

1 1 1 1 1

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024rd072 realized benefit dmnl1 1 1 1

rd078 realized benefit dmnl2 2 2 2

rd079 realized benefit dmnl3 3 3

ADS-B realized benefit dmnl4 4 4

CDTI/MMD realized benefit dmnl5 5 5

oi167 realized benefit dmnl6 6 6

oi162 realized benefit dmnl7 7 7

Copyright ©

2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

Realized Fraction of Potential Constraint ChangeImprovement in Runway Capacity

1

0.75

0.5

0.25

0 9

9

9

99

8

8

8 8 8

7 7

7

77

6 6

6

6 6

5

5

5

5 5 5

4 4 4

4

4 4

3 3 3 3

3

3

2 2 2

2

2 2

1 1 1

1

1 1

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024oi103 Realized dmnl1 1 1 1oi118 Realized dmnl2 2 2 2oi119 Realized dmnl3 3 3 3oi149 Realized dmnl4 4 4 4oi152 Realized dmnl5 5 5 5 5oi161 Realized dmnl6 6 6 6 6oi163 Realized dmnl7 7 7 7 7oi168 Realized dmnl8 8 8 8 8Overall Realized Improvement dmnl9 9 9

Copyright ©

2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

2,000

1,700

1,400

1,100

8002006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

constraint level[emissions] : Current b*rpm/fyconstraint level[enroute] : Current b*rpm/fyconstraint level[landside] : Current b*rpm/fyconstraint level[noise] : Current b*rpm/fyconstraint level[runway] : Current b*rpm/fyconstraint level[surface] : Current b*rpm/fyconstraint level[terminal] : Current b*rpm/fyconstraint level[weather] : Current b*rpm/fy

?

?

starting value for noise, emissions, runway and enroute from Constraints Analysis 3/06

starting value for other constraints unknown, TBD (constraints analysis)

? ending values unknown, TBD (portfolio analysis)

Magnitude of Potential Constraint Change

Copyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

Overall Capacity2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

9

9

99

8

8

8 8

7

7

7

7

6

6

66

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3 3

2

2

2

2 2

1

1

1

11

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024constraint level[emissions] : Current b*rpm/fy1 1constraint level[enroute] : Current b*rpm/fy2 2constraint level[landside] : Current b*rpm/fy3 3constraint level[noise] : Current b*rpm/fy4 4constraint level[runway] : Current b*rpm/fy5constraint level[surface] : Current b*rpm/fy6constraint level[terminal] : Current b*rpm/fy7constraint level[weather] : Current b*rpm/fy8 8Capacity b*rpm/fy9 9 9

Copyright ©

2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

Model also calculates consumer surplus and NPV

constraint level

baseline constraintconstraint change

fractiontask

completespending

burn rate

fraction planned benefit expectedtask is active

benefit vs completion Paretoplanned duration

fraction planned benefit realized

fraction constraint change realized

task success

fractionfleet

equipped

benefit vs equipage Pareto

equipage rate

scheduled start

equipage start

cumulativecost

capacity

equipage effect

binding constraintconstraint distanceshadow strength

total cost

planned endstate constraint

consumer surplus gain

price elasticity

discount rate<yield forecast>

APO RPMsdiscountfactor price

NGATS NPVdiscounted net benefitCopyright © 2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

“… gang aft agley”

0-0.2 0.2-0.4 0.4-0.6 0.6-0.8 0.8-1

0.5

0.25

0

1. Assumed PDF of Intrinsic Task Success 2. Resulting Fractions Benefits Realized

67% 75% 90% 95%1,400

1,100

8002006 2011 2016 2020 2025

3. Resulting Capacity PDF (rpm/yr)

0.5

0.25

0 0-0.2 0.2-0.4 0.4-0.6 0.6-0.8 0.8-1

60,000

45,000

30,000

15,000

02022 2023 2024 2024 2025

3. NPV through 2025 (M$)

Copyright ©

2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.

Success in one constraint does not make up for failure in another

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

9

9

99 98

8

88 8

7

7

7

7 7

6

6

6

66

5

5

5

5 5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

33

22

2

2 2

11

1

11

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024constraint level[emissions] : Current b*rpm/fy1 1 1constraint level[enroute] : Current b*rpm/fy2 2 2constraint level[landside] : Current b*rpm/fy3 3constraint level[noise] : Current b*rpm/fy4 4constraint level[runway] : Current b*rpm/fy5 5constraint level[surface] : Current b*rpm/fy6 6constraint level[terminal] : Current b*rpm/fy7 7constraint level[weather] : Current b*rpm/fy8 8 8Capacity b*rpm/fy9 9 9 9

Copyright ©

2006 Ventana Systems, Inc.